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Trajectories of attention capture the accumulation of brand utility during complex decision-making tasks. Thus, attention trajectories, as reflected in eye movements, predict the final brand choice of 85% of consumers before they implement it. Even when observing eye movements in only the first quarter of the decision process, attention already predicts brand choice much better (45%) than chance levels (20%). This superior prediction performance is due to a “double attention lift” for the chosen brand: The chosen brand receives progressively more attention toward the moment of choice, and more of this attention is devoted to integrating information about the brand rather than to comparing it with other options. In contrast, the currently owned brand grabs attention early in the task, and its attention gain persists for brand-loyal consumers and shifts for brand-switching consumers. A new attention and choice model used in tandem with the Bayesian K-fold cross-validation methodology on eye-tracking data from 325 representative consumers uncovered these attention trajectory effects. The findings contribute to closing important knowledge gaps in the attention and choice literature and have implications for marketing research and managerial practice.

The US auto industry experienced some turbulent times during the last decade, especially during the 2006–2011 period. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we want to apply the information economics theoretic framework (e.g., Erdem and Swait (J Consum Psychol 7 (April): 131–157, 1998)) of brand equity and management to assess the impact of the events during this period on consumer brand perceptions and brand consideration in this market. Second, prior information economics theoretic work utilized cross-sectional data (and, further, collected only from student subjects). By collecting two waves of data at widely separated times (2006 and 2011) from consumers who own one or more cars, we are able to test the temporal stability of the information economics framework. Our results indicate that the impact of the various shocks (e.g., bankruptcies, buyouts, product recalls, and the like) on consumer perceptions and behavior during this period can be captured and explained quite well by the information economics theoretic framework: the framework shows remarkable temporal stability. This suggests that tracking key constructs of the framework can lead to reliable forecasts of consumer reactions and serve as the basis for “real-time” brand management, in both crisis and non-crisis modes. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The recent marketing literature reflects a growing interest in structural models, stemming from (1) the desire to test a variety of behavioral theories with market data, and (2) recent developments that facilitate estimation of and inference for these models. Whether one should always go through the effort of developing such tightly parameterized models with the associated computational burden of estimating them and whether it pays off to make strict behavioral assumptions in terms of better decisions remain open questions. To shed some light on these issues, we provide examples of structural approaches to consumer choice and demand as well as examples where the goal is to study the nature of competition in the marketplace. From that review comes our discussion of issues in the development and application of structural models, including their estimation, testing, and validation, their applicability in the practice of marketing, and their usefulness for normative as well as descriptive purposes.