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The Nordic power market The past has shown that some of the main power price drivers are quite unpredictable, while some major trends are quite certain. The joint Swedish – Norwegian green certificate system is well on track to reach the common goal of 28.4 TWh new renewable electricity production by 2020. The Swedish government has announced that it will prolong the green certificate system, while renewable support in Norway and Finland is uncertain after 2020. Still, wind investments are expected to continue at a fast pace beyond 2020 in the Nordic region. Although many hydropower projects have low costs, environmental restrictions in many rivers limit the potential. The main share of new hydropower will be small-scale run-of-river projects. The Swedish nuclear capacity is expected to decrease, while the capacity in Finland will increase. In total there will be a slight increase in the total nuclear power capacity toward 2030. We assume that fossil power generation will be phased out by 2030 in the Nordic countries. Despite low fossil fuel shares in the Nordic market, thermal power will continue to impact Nordic power prices through increasing exchange to/from the Continent and the UK. Energy intensity in households has started to decline and this is expected to continue to 2040, due to new building standards. The expected growth in population in the Nordic area contributes, however, in the opposite direction. An increasing number of electric vehicles will contribute to an increase in consumption. The Nordic countries have a large power intensive industry sector. The pulp and paper industry is currently consuming approximately 40 TWh annually. We expect a major transition of the forest industry away from paper production, contributing to a reduction in industrial consumption. A switch in the oil sector to electricity produced onshore may contribute to increasing demand. We also assume increasing demand from data centers in the Nordic region. Overall, the industry sector consumption represents the largest uncertainty in future demand. The growth in (variable) renewable power on the Continent will make investments in interconnection capacity more attractive – due to short-term price variations. The export capacity in the Nordic region is expected to increase to 14 GW by 2030. This is about three times the current capacity. The power price is expected to increase continuously toward 2050, with the largest effect in Denmark. The uncertainty regarding future power prices is, however, substantial; with the most important aspects of uncertainties being the price of fossil fuel (gas and coal), CO2-quotas price, the share of renewable energy in the power system, the capacity margins and the development in energy storage and consumer flexibility. Nordic heating and cooling markets Future energy consumption in heating and cooling depends on several factors. Improved building standards and higher outdoor temperatures imply reduced heat demand whereas population growth, fewer people per households and increased cooling demand implies higher energy use for heating and cooling. The total effects are unclear and depend on policies and regulations, including future energy costs that influence the profitability of energy efficiency investments. The current changes are also relatively slow due to slow rehabilitation and replacement rates in the building sector. The renewable share in heating and cooling is relatively low in many countries and replacement of fossil fuels with biomass represents the major potential for biomass in Europe. In the Nordic countries, replacement of fossil fuels in district heating in Denmark and Finland is important, whereas expansion of district heating is needed in Sweden and Norway as most of the existing district heating is based on renewables. Non-energy forest products markets Sawlog is the most important timber grade. In Norway it account for about 70% of the gross income to forest owners. The consumption, and thereby the production, is dependent on the construction activities (i.e. new houses) and the renovation of old ones. Data indicate a cyclic sawnwood sector, with roughly about 10 - 20 years cycles. The dissolution of the former Soviet Union around 1990 and the financial crisis in 2008 represents the two latest downturns in this segment. The short-term trend indicates a 3% p.a. increase in global sawnwood production. In the longer term, there is a large untapped potential in Europe in the sense that there is a large difference in per capita consumption of sawnwood across Europe. It is however not necessarily straight forward to change habits, building regulations etc, which may be needed in order to increase the use of wood in buildings. Newsprint and other printing and writing paper is on the decline globally and in most of the market analyzed in this report. The demand for graphic paper will not vanish, but there are no indications that we will see a large increase in demand in the future. The main reason for the decline is the shift from printed to digital media. It is reasonable to believe that developing economies will jump right to digital media. The short-term decline in global newsprint production is estimated to 4.8% p.a., while the decline in printing and writing paper is estimated to be 1.0% p.a. The products group “other paper and paperboard” comprises hygienic goods (e.g. tissue paper and disposable diapers) and packaging materials (e.g. paperboards), and the latter group is the dominant one. Except for the Americas where the production has been stable after the mid 90-ies, there has been increases in production in both Asia and Europe. Internet trade is probably the most important driver in the near past. The main drivers for hygienic products are economic development and age structure of the population. In the short term, we estimate the yearly increase to 3.0%. Societal demands for mitigation and adaptation to climate change will have implications for the forest sector. EU energy and environmental policies have the potential to advance a paradigm change towards a forest-based bioeconomy. This could mean the production of a wide array of (chemical) products like textile fibers (viscose) or construction materials like cross-laminated timber.

The wood pellet use in the heating and electricity sector has recorded a steady growth in the last years. IEA bioenergy task 40 carried out an update of the situation on the national pellet markets in the most relevant pellet producing countries and the global development as well. Various country specific data is collected and compiled for more than 30 countries, containing updated information about regulatory framework, production, consumption, price trends, quality standards and trade aspects. The analysis confirmed the positive development in terms of production and consumption of wood pellets in almost all countries. In 2015, more than26Mt of wood pellets have been produced and consumed worldwide. Technologies and markets become more mature. Increased international pellet trade needs to be supported by adequate frame condition not only for commerce, but also with regard to sustainability issues., Proceedings of the 25th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 12-15 June 2017, Stockholm, Sweden, pp. 1909-1912

The objective of this report was to review studies of relevance for the Norwegian forest carbon cycle and on that basis, indicate global warming impacts of possible changes in management and utilization of the Norwegian forest resources. In the photosynthetic process, forests sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Carbon is stored in living vegetation, dead organic matter, and soil. Intensive planting and afforestation in Norway between 1950 and 1990, in combination with relatively stable harvest levels well below annual growth during the last decades, have resulted in net carbon sequestration in forests equaling more than half the current national annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The the average forest age is increasing, and the forest growth and carbon accumulation rate is therefore projected to decline in the future given continuation of recent harvest levels. A range of studies at different scales with a variety of approaches have been carried out to assess the climate change mitigation possibilities in the forest sector. Prolonged rotations, afforestation, intensified planting, improved plant materials, changes of species, more fertilization and less thinning are all changes in the forest management that might enhance carbon sequestration. Use of bioenergy can reduce overall GHG emissions by replacing fossil fuels, and wood materials can substitute GHG-intensive materials such as concrete and steel. Studies of such substitution effects generally find a reduction in the GHG emissions when biomass systems are compared to fossil reference systems, as long as the permanent reductions in terrestrial carbon pools are small. However, the majority of these case studies assume carbon neutrality in the meaning that as new trees grow where the old ones are harvested, an amount of CO2 similar to the quantity emitted during combustion will be sequestered during the next rotation. This assumption of carbon neutrality is in line with the approach taken by the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. biogenic carbon flows are summarized without regard to the timing of each flow. However, since combustion of wood usually is less energy efficient / more carbon intensive than combustion of oil and natural gas, using wood instead of these fossil fuels for energy will in the short term lead to increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, creating a carbon debt and a corresponding CO2 pay-back time. If wood energy replaces power produced from coal, the net GHG emissions in the combustion process are approximately zero. The length of the pay-back time from increased harvest in Norway is mainly determined by the following factors: (i) the foregone sequestration in the harvested stand, (ii) how large share of the harvested biomass in the stand is utilized and the substitution effects of this utilization, and (iii) the initial growth of the new stand. With the present biomass utilization, forest growth and management in Norway, the length of this pay-back time is relatively long. A positive carbon price implies longer rotations for forest stands, the more if the sequestration in the existing stand is high, re-growth is slow and substitution effects low. However, at a certain point in time, a forest stand will reach a state of slow and eventually negative growth, and in this situation, harvest to replace fossil fuels followed by regeneration is more likely to improve the GHG balance also in the short run. Our main conclusions are: - Domestic and imported wood are to a large extent substitutes and changes in domestic harvesting levels can change harvesting levels elsewhere. Impacts of global GHG emissions of changes in domestic harvest levels require broader analyses than carried out in this study - Higher demand for biomass from forest in Norway is likely to be covered through a mix of increased harvest, higher harvest residue utilization, reduced wood consumption in the pulp and paper industries and more import. - With the present forest management and wood utilization, increased harvest in Norway as a result of growing demand for biomass in the energy sector, will in the short to medium term cause an increase in the GHG emissions to the atmosphere. If fossil-fuel based commodities are replaced, increased use of wood products will reduce GHG emissions in the long run. - Utilization of harvest residue for energy can be increased within the current harvest level and have positive GHG effects also in the short run (5-15 years). - Forest carbon sequestration can be increased by changing forest management practices: more fertilization, higher densities in planting, improved plant material, changed species, less thinning, and allocation of harvest to stands with current low growth, but with a potential of higher growth. Except for fertilization and allocation of harvest, these measures have limited carbon sequestration impacts in the short run, but considerable impacts in the medium and long run. - To improve the substitution effects of wood products and thus the GHG impacts of harvesting, it is important that the wood products actually replace fossil-fuel intensive products , that the most GHG-intensive fossil fuels and materials are replaced and that the wood product chain has high GHG efficiency. - The understanding of the development of old, dense stands is limited, and thus the carbon effects by keeping such stands far beyond regular forest management practices are uncertain, in particular for spruce and birch. - Impacts of the albedo effect of different forest management regimes are not yet well known, but some studies indicate that that it might be of a magnitude that could change the conclusions drawn when considering GHG only. If harvest in Norway increases and the use of oil and natural gas is replaced by forest bioenergy, the GHG emissions will increase in the short to medium run. However, given that increased use of biomass substitute fossil fuels or materials, increased use of biomass will reduce GHG emissions in the long run. An important question is therefore what the relevant time horizon for global warming mitigation efforts is. The optimal mitigation strategy will depend upon this chosen time horizon. To assess the pros and cons of short term versus long term emissions, one needs to broaden the scope from pure GHG emission calculations to the entire climate system and include non-GHG effects like reflections from the forest surface (albedo). Albedo effects may imply shorter rotations, more broadleaves and less afforestation compared to what is optimal when considering GHG effects only. The net wood import accounts for 20-30% of the domestic wood consumption in Norway. Changes in the harvest level will affect wood import since there are few barriers to timber and wood product trade in Europe. Thus, possible leakage effects must be considered if implementing policies to change the harvest level in order to mitigate climate change. More research regarding the growth and mortality of old forest, and substitution effects of present and new wood products, is also needed to estimate more correctly the GHG effects of different forest management strategies in Norway. Finally, efforts to change the management of the forest resources to mitigate global warming should be coupled with considerations on factors such as economic development and biodiversity, in addition to short-run versus long-run global warming impacts in order to achieve the desired outcomes.

This report provides an overview of the data used in the two Norwegian forest sector models NorFor and NTMIII. Both models are spatial partial equilibrium models describing the Norwegian forest and bioenergy sectors, including harvest of timber, processing in industry, demand of final products and trade and transport between regions and to/from Norway. Both models have endogenous prices of timber and wood products, but differ in the timber supply side, in the time horizon and the foresight information of agents. NTM has econometrically specified timber supply curves and no option of changing forest management and investment from the predetermined path. In NorFor, simulated growth and yields of all National Forest Inventory plots are included for several future management options. NTM is mostly applied for projections 10 – 20 years into future, while NorFor can currently be applied up to 100 years in future. NTM is a myopic model employing a recursive optimization, assuming that agents do not possess any information about the future beyond the current period. NorFor optimizes for all periods at once, and assumes that agents have perfect foresight. 2008 is base year for both models. Different methods and source are applied to establish the data sets documented in this report. Public statistics from Statistics Norway are used for prices, international trade, harvest and energy consumption. Data from the National Forest Inventory sample plots are used to estimate county‐specific timber supply in NorFor. Elasticities of timber supply (only NTM) and demand for final products (both models) are based on econometric studies. Supply curves for harvest residues are based on available biomass and hauling costs. Plant level data in the pulp, paper and board industry are collected through interviews in the forest industries and annual reports. Input‐output coefficients in bioenergy production are based on other studies and own analyses of data from Statistics Norway and Enova. Costs for expanding district heating systems are based on the heating market model X‐Varme runs. Other parameters are forest management costs (only NorFor), transport costs and GDP growth as a basis for demand growth. Data quality is an important factor in the quality of the results. Several aspects are related to data quality, as representativeness and data uncertainty. Data representativeness indicates how well the analyzed chain or products are represented, as the data often are taken from other geographical areas or adjacent products. Data limitations always exist, and models are simplified representations of the systems. However, consequences of data deficiency vary with the analyses. In general, data regarding production, prices and trade of wood, energy and forest industrial products based on figures from Statistics Norway are of high quality, whereas data of inputs and costs in the industry have weaker empirical basis and thus higher uncertainty.

The Northern European power system is currently experiencing an extensive growth in production from renewable energy sources (RE), which is expected to continue in the coming decades. Due to the variable, uncertain and location-specific supply of variable renewable energy technologies (VRE) like wind, solar and run-of-river hydropower, increasing deployment levels cause increasing integration costs and power system challenges. The variable nature of VRE technologies causes challenges related to excess supply and congestion. Furthermore, the merit order effect from VRE variability causes a downward effect on electricity prices, with associated reduced profitability, or market value, of VRE technologies. A flexible power system that could adjust to changes in supply is advantageous for costeffective integration of high VRE market shares and for mitigating the drop in the VRE market value. The main objective of this thesis is to investigate how the increasing RE market shares in Northern Europe towards 2030 will affect the power market and the value of VRE, and how increased power system flexibility can improve integration, hence increasing the market value of VRE. Based on some methodological limitations and knowledge gaps identified in the existing literature, three sub-objectives (SO) are investigated: SO1) Power market effects of the Norwegian-Swedish tradable green certificates and the German solar feed-in tariffs, SO2) Benefits of increased interconnection between thermal and hydropower dominated regions and SO3) Effects of increased demand-side flexibility (DSF) for improved VRE integration.

Tropical deforestation is among the principal causes of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Nevertheless, tropical forests play an important role in regulating global climate by serving as carbon reservoirs. This has led to the consideration of the policy measure known as REDD+ in the global climate change mitigation agenda. REDD+ stands for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, enhancing forest carbon stocks, sustainable management and conservation of forests. Assessing the economic feasibility of REDD+ policy is an important step towards implementing it. The objectives of this thesis were therefore to (1) estimate and compare the REDD+ payments required to compensate the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping conversion of montane forest and miombo woodland into cropland (Paper I), (2) assess longterm productivity of agriculture on former miombo woodlands and its implication for OC estimation (Paper II), (3) investigate optimal use of miombo woodlands for charcoal production considering REDD+ payments for carbon sequestration and reduced degradation (Paper III), and (4) assess the past and future profitability of deforestation of miombo woodlands considering the externality of deforestation in terms of CO2 emissions (Paper IV). Avskoging i tropene er en av de viktigste årsakene til menneskeskapte utslipp av CO2. De tropiske skogene er viktige i klimasammenheng siden de fortsatt representerer store karbonlagre. Dette har medført at man har vurdert det klimapolitiske tiltaket som har fått betegnelsen REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, enhancing forest carbon stocks, sustainable management and conservation of forests) i den internasjonale diskusjonen om global oppvarming. Å vurdere økonomien i dette tiltaket er et nødvendig skritt på veien til mulig gjennomføring. Målene med denne studien har derfor vært (1) å anslå og sammenligne de REDD+-betalingene som kreves for å kompensere de alternativkostnadene som følger av at man ikke kan rydde og dyrke opp fjellregnskog eller åpen lavlandsskog i Tanzania (artikkel I), (2) vurdere den langsiktige utviklingen i arealproduktivitet i åkerbruket etter oppdyrking av åpen lavlandsskog, og hvilken betydning dette har for alternativkostnadene (artikkel II), (3) undersøke optimal avvirkning i åpen lavlandsskog dersom man betaler for karbonlagring og redusert skogforringelse (artikkel III), og endelig (4) anslå lønnsomheten av historisk og framtidig avskoging av åpen lavlandsskog når man tar hensyn til kostnaden av CO2-utslipp (artikkel IV).

Sustainable development and renewable energy security are global concerns today. In developing countries, these challenges are coupled with increased energy demand. Firewood and charcoal are the most used cooking fuels in Uganda, as only a small percentage has access and economy to use electricity. Wood fuel has many adverse side effects for people, nations, and the environment, which promotes a need for sustainable alternatives. Biogas plants transform organic waste with low value into gas and fertilizer for plants. A biogas plant could benefit many parties, but several critical factors can inhibit the viability of the system. This thesis aims to explore if biogas is a viable technology for domestic cooking purposes in rural Uganda by asking; What are the costs and benefits of domestic biogas plants for the user in rural Uganda?, II: What are the criteria for a successful implementation of domestic biogas plants? and III: What are the critical factors for a successful implementation for domestic use? The research questions were answered by the use of two methods; 1) Literature review of studies of technology implementation and domestic biogas plants in developing countries and 2) Qualitative interviews with participants and fieldwork in rural Uganda. The results of the economic assessment on the Nyenga Foundation’s biogas plant showed that biogas is the cheapest cooking alternative compared to wood fuel, LPG, and electricity. However, the investment cost of a domestic biogas plant is high, which can be a significant challenge for many stakeholders. A successful biogas plant has a lasting and expanding operation, and a user owning the knowledge and handling challenges. Various factors are critical to the implementation of domestic biogas plants; economic, technical, environmental, cultural, social, and institutional, which must be addressed to see successful implementation. The participants showed that the most critical barriers to a domestic biogas plant were owning the knowledge of the plant and using it to plan an effective biogas system from cow to field. The results implicate a necessity of spreading knowledge and the benefits of biogas plants. The information shared should include suggestions on making a sustainable system where all the biogas plants’ benefits are utilized. M-FORNY

This thesis presents studies that describe different consequences of increased use of forest resources for energy purposes. Forest biomass is widely used in many different applications; in recent years, biofuel has been one of the products that has increasingly received attention. In order to produce forest-based biofuel, forest resources are needed. Either these resources have to be taken from sources that are currently not economical to harvest or biofuel producers have to compete with existing industries to get biomass. This thesis presents the positive and negative effects of increased production of forest-based biofuel within the Nordic countries for the heating, power, and forest sectors. Three different models are used to describe the effects of implementing biofuel production in the Nordic countries: two forest sector models, the Norwegian trade model (NTM) and the Nordic forest sector model (NFSM), and the energy sector model Balmorel. While in the last paper, an integrated model is developed to combine the strengths of NFSM and Balmorel. In paper I, NTM was used to quantify major market uncertainties in the Norwegian forest sector and analyse their impacts on the results of a forest sector model study for Norway. The uncertainties were derived from historical time series of prices and exchange rates for international forest products, and their impacts were addressed using a Monte Carlo approach. The results show that the relative standard deviation for modelled harvest levels varies from 15% to 45%, while for forest products the standard deviations vary from 30% to 80%. The paper concludes that the most important factor for the Norwegian forest sector is the development of international forest product markets. In paper II, NFSM was used to quantify how large-scale production of forest-based biofuel would affect forest owners and forest industries in the Nordic countries. The implications were studied using five scenarios covering a 0–40% biofuel share of fuel consumption. The results show that the sawmill industry increased their profit slightly due to increasing prices for their by-products, while pulp and paper producers saw their yearly profit reduced by up to 3.0 billion €, corresponding to 8% of their annual turnover, due to the increased pulpwood prices. Forest owners increased their revenue by up to 31% due to a 15% increase in harvest at the same time as pulpwood prices increased. The study concludes that the traditional forest sector will change substantially with huge production of forest biofuels. In paper III, NFSM was used to quantify the effects on the forest sector of different policy schemes that promote Nordic forest-based biofuel. This study assessed six different support schemes that might increase the attractiveness of investing in forest-based liquid biofuel facilities. The results show that the necessary subsidy level is in the range of 0.60–0.85 €/L (82–116% of the fossil fuel cost in 2030) for realistic amounts of biofuel production. The feed-in premium is the subsidy scheme that gives the lowest needed subsidy cost for production levels below 6 billion litres (25% market share) of forest-based biofuel, while quota obligations are the cheapest option for production levels above 6 billion litres. In paper IV, Balmorel was used to quantify the role of woody biomass in the production of heat and power in Northern Europe towards 2040. The study focuses on GHG emissions from fossil fuel in the heat and power sectors under different carbon price scenarios, comparing the results with biofuel production. The results show that the use of woody biomass can reduce the direct emissions from the power and heat sector with 4–27% in 2030 compared to a scenario where woody biomass is not available for power and heat generation. At a low carbon price, the use of natural gas, wind, and coal power increases when biomass is not available for power and heat generation, while at higher carbon prices, solar power, wind power, powerto-heat, and natural gas become increasingly competitive; consequently, the use of biomass has a lower impact on emissions reductions. If forest-based biofuel is produced from the same amount of biomass as is used for heat and electricity production, we will get reduced fossil carbon emissions, but the total system cost will increase. NFSM and Balmorel were integrated in paper V in order to increase our understanding of the combined forest and energy sectors. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the integration procedure using a scenario that reduces the fossil emissions in the Nordic countries by 73% compared to 2017. The results show that it is likely that the integrated model presents the connection between heat and electricity production better than standalone models. One of the conclusions is that the Nordic countries have enough forest biomass to fulfil the demand within the industrial sector and for biofuel, heat, and power production. The results from this thesis show that in the forest sector it is likely that forest owners will be the main winners if large amounts of forest-based biofuel are produced, while forest industry, especially pulp and paper producers, will face reduced market share and profitability. Simultaneously, woody biomass contribution to lower the fossil emissions from heat and power, and the transition to low carbon energy systems will likely be more costly if biomass is excluded from energy generation. Denne avhandlingen inneholder flere studier som beskriver forskjellige konsekvenser av økt bruk av skogressurser til energiformål. Skogsbiomasse har mange forskjellige bruksområder, de siste årene har biodrivstoff vært et bruksområde som i økende grad har fått mye oppmerksomhet. For å kunne produsere skogsbasert biodrivstoff trengs store mengder tømmer, enten må tømmeret hentes fra kilder som ikke er økonomiske drivverdige i dag, eller så må produsentene konkurrere med eksisterende næringer for å få den nødvendige biomassen. Denne avhandlingen presenterer positive og negative effekter av økt biodrivstoff produksjon i Norden for varme-, kraft- og skogsektoren. Tre forskjellige modeller er brukt for å beskrive effekten av biodrivstoffproduksjon i Norden, skogsektormodellene som er brukt er Norwegian trade model (NTM) og Nordic forest sector model (NFSM), og energisektormodellen Balmorel. I arbeidet med artikkel V ble det utviklet en kombinert modell for å utnytte styrkene til både NFSM og Balmorel. I artikkel I ble NTM brukt til å kvantifisere hvordan usikkerheten i markedspriser påvirker produksjonsnivåer i Norge, samt å analysere effektene usikkerhetene har på resultatene fra skogsektormodellen. De historiske usikkerhetene ble estimert fra historiske tidsserier for priser på internasjonale skogsprodukter og valutakurser, virkningene av disse ble funnet ved hjelp av Monte Carlo simuleringer. Resultatene viser at det relative standardavviket for hogstnivået varierer fra 15 % til 45 %, mens standardavvikene for sluttprodukter varierer fra 30 % til 80 %. Studien konkluderer med at den viktigste faktoren for norsk skogsektor er utviklingen av internasjonale markedspriser. I artikkel II ble NFSM brukt til å beregne hvordan storstilt utbygging av skogbasert biodrivstoff vil påvirke skogeiere og skogsindustri i Norden. Implikasjonene ble studert ved bruk av fem scenarier for biodrivstoff produksjon tilsvarene 0–40 % av det nordiske drivstofforbruket i 2017. Resultatene viser en svak økning av overskuddet i sagbruksnæringen, dette skyldes økte priser på sagbrukenes biprodukter. Mens masse- og papirprodusenter fikk redusert sitt årlige overskudd med inntil 3,0 milliarder euro, tilsvarende 8 % av deres årlige omsetning, dette skyldes økte massevirkepriser. Samtidig økte skogeiere sine inntekter med opp mot 31 % på grunn av 15 % økning i avvirkningen samtidig som prisene på massevirke økte. Studien konkluderer med at konsekvensene av storstilt biodrivstoff produksjon i Norden vil endre den tradisjonelle skogsektoren betydelig. I artikkel III ble NFSM brukt til å kvantifisere effektene for skogsektoren av forskjellige politiske støtteordninger som fremmer nordisk skogbasert biodrivstoff. Denne studien undersøkte seks forskjellige støtteordninger som kan øke investeringene i flytende skogsbaserte biodrivstoffanlegg. Resultatene viser at det nødvendige subsidienivået ligger i området 0,60–0,85 €/L (82–116 % av den antatte prisen på fossilt drivstoff i 2030) for realistiske produksjonsnivåer. Den støtteordningen som behøvede lavest støttenivå for å gi lønnsom biodrivstoffproduksjon var innmatingstariff for produksjonsnivåer under 6 milliarder liter (25 % markedsandel), mens et innblandingskrav trenger lavest støttenivå for produksjonsnivåer over 6 milliarder liter. I artikkel IV ble Balmorel brukt til å estimere rollen skogsbiomasse har for produksjonen av varme og strøm i Nord-Europa fram mot 2040. Studien setter søkelys på klimagassutslipp fra fossilt brensel i varme- og kraftsektorene under forskjellige karbonprisscenarier, og sammenligner resultatene opp mot biodrivstoffproduksjon. Resultatene viser at bruk av biomasse kan redusere de direkte utslippene fra kraft- og varmesektoren med 4–27 % i 2030 sammenlignet med et scenario hvor biomasse er ekskludert fra kraft- og varmesektoren. Når biomasse ikke er tilgjengelig for kraft- og varmeproduksjon øker bruken av naturgass, vind og kullkraft hvis karbonprisen er lav, mens ved høyere karbonpriser øker bruken av solenergi, vindkraft, kraft-til-varme og naturgass, og følgelig har bruken av biomasse en lavere innvirkning på utslippsreduksjonene enn ved lav karbonpris. Hvis den samme mengden biomasse blir brukt til biodrivstoff vil vi få reduserte de fossile karbonutslipp, men systemkostnadene vil samtidig øke. I artikkel V ble NFSM og Balmorel integrert, med mål å øke forståelsen for den kombinerte skog- og energisektoren i Norden. Ved bruk av et scenario som reduserer fossile utslipp i Norden med 73 % sammenlignet med 2017 diskuteres styrker og svakheter ved integrasjonsprosedyren. Resultatene synliggjør at den integrerte modellen beskriver samhandlingen mellom varme- og strømproduksjon bedre enn de frittstående modellene. En av konklusjonene er at de nordiske landene mest sannsynlig har nok skogsbiomasse til å oppfylle etterspørselen fra industrisektoren og fra biodrivstoff-, varme- og kraftproduksjon. Resultatene fra denne avhandlingen viser at det er sannsynlig at skogeiere vil ha mest å tjene av at store mengder skogbasert biodrivstoff produseres i Norden, mens skogsindustrien og spesielt masse- og papirprodusenter vil få redusert lønnsomhet. Samtidig kan biomasse bidra til å senke de fossile utslipp fra varme- og kraftproduksjon, og overgangen til et energisystem med lave karbon utslipp vil trolig bli mer kostbart hvis biomasse blir ekskludert fra bruk til energiproduksjon. Bio4fuels ; BioNEXT

This study assesses the effect a higher penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and a shutdown of Swedish Nuclear power will have on the reliability in the Nordic power market in 2030. A probabilistic model was used to predict the loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy (EUE). The model includes time series for demand and capacity utilization of wind-, photovoltaic-, run of river hydro power and nuclear power production. Two scenarios were analysed; (1) base scenario with a predicted capacity mix with high shares of VRE and some decrease in nuclear power production compared to today’s capacities, and (2) complete shutdown of Sweden’s nuclear power production. Both scenarios where run with the assumption of a)import and b)no import from countries surrounding the Nordic power market. The most important findings are: • The scenario analysis shows that the Nordic power market is able to handle exposed situations in 2030 if Sweden keeps some of its nuclear production, todays planned expansion of interconnections with surrounding countries is realized and an assuming extensive development in wind power production. • A shutdown of Sweden’s power production will give a decrease in the reliability compared to a situation with nuclear power and be just short of a satisfactory level of adequacy with a LOLP requirement of 1‰. • The Nordic power market in 2030 cannot keep a satisfactory level of reliability without import from surrounding countries. The current reliability in the Nordic power market is strong, but increased shares of VRE combined with reduced nuclear power production and/or increased consumption will require increased flexibility to maintain a satisfactory level of reliability in 2030. Measures to increase the flexibility, like demand response and increased transmission capacity, as well as the effect of demanding cold/dry years on total hydro storage capacity should be analyzed in further studies. Denne studien undersøker effekten av en høyere andel variable fornybar energi og komplett utfasing av Sveriges kjernekraft vil ha på forsyningssikkerheten i Norden i 2030. En modell ble brukt til å beregne tap av last (LOLP) og tilhørende mengde ikke-levert energi. Modellen bruker tidsserier for forbruk og kapasitetsutnyttelse av vind-, sol-, uregulerbar vannkraft- og kjernekraftproduksjon. To scenarioer for kapasitetsmiks var analysert; 1) basisscenario med en høy andel variable fornybar kraftproduksjon og reduksjon i kjernekraftproduksjon, og 2) komplett utfasing av Sveriges kjernekraft, med antagelse om a)import fra omkringliggende land og b)ingen import. De viktigste funnene er: • Scenario analysen viser at forsyningssikkerheten i Norden i 2030 er god om Sverige beholder noe av sin kjernekraft og dagens planlagte utenlandskabler er realisert. • En total utfasing av Sveriges kjernekraft vil senke forsyningssikkerheten sammenlignet med et scenario med kjernekraft, og gi lavere LOLP-verdier enn et vanlig krav på 1‰. • Det nordiske energimarkedet kan ikke opprettholde et tilfredsstillende nivå på forsyningssikkerheten uten import fra omkringliggende land. Dagens forsyningssikkerhet er god, men økte andeler variabel fornybar kraftproduksjon kombinert med utfasing av kjernekraft og/eller økt forbruk vil kreve økt fleksibilitet for å opprettholde dette i 2030. Tiltak for for øke fleksibiliteten, som forburkerfleksibilitet og økt overføringskapasitet bør analyserer i videre studier. M-FORNY

Growing world population, unabated use of fossil fuels, and economies aiming at continuous growth exhaust the planet’s natural resources and add to an augmented greenhouse effect. Besides limiting population growth in less developed regions, reducing per capita energy consumption in more developed regions, substituting fossil and nuclear fuels by renewable energy carriers is considered a major step towards a sustainable development. The integration of renewable energy sources into the energy system can reduce pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions connected to energy conversion processes and ensure energy supply also in a long-term perspective. However, the varying supply of renewable energy supply implies challenges to existing energy systems, where traditionally supply used to follow demand. In order to plan, design, and manage modern energy systems sound estimates on regional energy demand with high temporal and spacial resolutions are needed. Due to the area-wide installation of smart energy meters time series of individual hourly or sub-hourly energy consumption data become available. In combination with cross-sectional information, such as household characteristics or building physics, valuable data sets can be formed, allowing the development of detailed consumption models. In this thesis the key factors for energy consumption in Norwegian buildings are analyzed, and a simple approach for modeling hourly energy consumption in different consumer groups within household and service sector is presented. The models are based on panel data sets consisting of hourly meter data combined with cross-sectional data, weather data, and calendric information. The individual impacts of different heating systems on hourly electricity consumption in households are assessed, yielding for example insights about average reductions in hourly consumption in case air-toair heat pumps or wood stoves are used. Moreover, the impacts of further householdor dwelling-specific variables, such as number of residents or dwelling type, are discussed, and a simple method for disaggregating modeled hourly electricity consumption into a temperature-independent and a temperature-dependent component is applied. Comparing goodness of fit of two regression models based on hourly and daily mean values of local outdoor temperature yields that daily mean values are sufficient for modeling hourly electricity consumption, which facilitates the input data requirements. The modeling approach is further applied to both hourly electricity and hourly district heat consumption in office buildings and schools. A comparison of modeled total energy consumption in buildings with electric and district heating, correspondingly, indicates that in office buildings with district heating heat consumption in the morning starts earlier than in buildings with electric heating, and that schools with district heating on average apply less indoor temperature reduction during night-time, weekends, and school holidays than schools with electric space heating. Finally the method is used to model historic aggregate electricity consumption in households and service sector in each Norwegian county, and to generate rough forecasts on hourly electricity consumption in Oslo in 2040. Temperature forecasts for 2040 imply increased temperatures during the entire year, and three different scenarios on population development assume low, medium, and high population growth. The forecasts indicate increased electricity consumption from 2013 to 2040 for all three population scenarios, which is mainly due to an increase in modeled consumption for electric appliances and tap water heating. Modeled electricity consumption for space heating purposes decreases in the low population scenario, slightly increases in the medium scenario, and only exhibits a considerable increase under the assumption of high population growth. The overall results of this study indicate that modeling aggregate energy consumption in households and service sector based on a bottom-up regression model approach is useful, but that the availability of building stock related input data is a prerequisite for achieving meaningful results, both for modeling historic consumption and forecasting. Moreover, important factors like thermal building standard or building age were not considered in most of the models, so that the effects of a building stock renewal could not be assessed. Larger samples of meter data and cross-sectional information, covering all Norwegian regions and sectors would enable developing further, more reliable models which could be used to perform forecasts on hourly energy consumption in all counties.

The forest sector plays important roles in the global carbon cycle. Firstly, the global carbon cycle. Firstly, the global carbon storage in forest biomass and soil is of a considerable size, and the total carbon sequestration in the global forests more than offsets the emissions from deforestation and land degradation. Secondly, the forest sector seems to have potentials to further mitigate accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and reduce overall mitigation costs. In Norway, the forests sequester more than half of the human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, due to an increment that exceeds the harvests by a large margin. The sequestration rate is projected to decline as investments in forestry have decreased substantially, although the forests will be an important factor in the Norwegian greenhouse gas account also in the future.