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2. Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

Author

Lowe, Rachel, Gasparrini, Antonio, Van Meerbeeck, Cédric J., Lippi, Catherine A., Mahon, Roché, Trotman, Adrian R., Rollock, Leslie, Hinds, Avery Q. J., Ryan, Sadie J., and Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.

Subjects
Influence, Analysis, Research, Risk factors, Health risk assessment -- Analysis, Climate -- Influence -- Research, Dengue fever -- Risk factors -- Research
Abstract

Author(s): Rachel Lowe 1,2,3,*, Antonio Gasparrini 4,5, Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck 6, Catherine A. Lippi 7, Roché Mahon 6, Adrian R. Trotman 6, Leslie Rollock 8, Avery Q. J. Hinds [...], Background Over the last 5 years (2013-2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016. Methods and findings Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure-lag-response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure-lag-response functions of these indicators-rather than linear effects for individual lags-more appropriately described the climate-disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika. Conclusion We present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart decision-making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modelling approach could be extended to model the risk of dengue and other arboviruses in the Caribbean region.

Published
2018
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3. State of the Climate in 2018

Author

Ades, M., Adler, R., Aldeco, Laura S., Alejandra, G., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andersen, J. K., Anderson, John, Arndt, Derek S., Arosio, C., Arrigo, Kevin, Azorin-Molina, César, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Benedict, Imme, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettio, Lynette, Bhatt, U. S., Biskaborn, B. K., Bissolli, Peter, Bjella, Kevin L., Bjerke, J. K., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bock, Olivier, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir, Bringas, Francis G., Bromwich, David H., Brown, Alrick, Brown, R., Brown, Timothy J., Buehler, S. A., Cáceres, Luis, Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Campos Diaz, Diego A., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carrier, Seth B., Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel Y., Cetinic, Ivona, Chambers, Don P., Chen, Lin, Cheng, Lijing, Cheng, Vincent Y.S., Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Claus, Federico, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Cosca, Cathy, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Dávila, Cristina P., Davis, Sean M., de Eyto, Elvira, de Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Decharme, B., Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dhurmea, K. R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Diaz, Eliecer, Diniz, Fransisco A., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Druckenmiller, Matthew L., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, Sinead L., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garforth, J., Gerland, Sebastian, Gilson, John, Gleason, Karin, Gobron, Nadine, Goetz, S., Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Gray, Alison, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Gu, Guojun, Guard, Charles Chip P., Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, Christian, Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Hazeleger, Wilco, He, Q., Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, Stefan, Hernández, Rafael, Hersbach, H. E., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Chuanmin, Huang, Boyin, Hubbard, Katherine, Hubert, Daan, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jia, G., Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Johnson, Bryan, Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Karlsen, S. R., Karnauskas, Mandy, Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A. Fazl, Kelble, Christopher, Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Kidd, R., Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., King, A. D., King, Brian A., Kipling, Z., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya A., Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, Thomas, Labbé, L., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lareau, Neil P., Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L’heureux, Michelle, Li, Bailing, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lim, J. Y., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marin, Dora, Marquardt Collow, Allison B., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M., McClelland, J. W., McEvoy, Daniel J., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, Walt, Meijers, Andrew, Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Misevicius, Noelia, Mitchum, Gary T., Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natali, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nauslar, Nicholas J., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nicolas, Julien P., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael, Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, Chris, Preimesberger, W., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C. L., Ramos, Andrea M., Ramos, Isabel, Randel, W., Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, Robert, Ripaldi, A., Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benajamin, Roth, Chris, Rozanov, A., Rusak, James A., Rustemeier, Elke, Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Baptiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Scardilli, Alvaro S., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schoeneich, P., Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Sensoy, Serhat, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimpo, A., Shuman, Christopher A., Siegel, David A., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline, Spencer, R. G.M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stabeno, P. J., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan E., Streeter, Casey, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Suslova, A., Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiann, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thompson, Philip R., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, Skie, Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, Mark, Tye, Mari R., van As, D., van de Wal, R. S.W., van der A, Ronald J., van der Schalie, Robin, van der Schrier, Gerard, van der Werf, Guido R., van Heerwaarden, Chiel, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Verburg, Piet, Vieira, G., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Walker, D. A., Walsh, J. E., Wang, Bin, Wang, Hui, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Mengqiu, Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, Melinda, Weerts, Albrecht, Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Widlansky, Matthew J., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zeyaeyan, Sadegh, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhou, Xinjia, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus, Andersen, Andrea, Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Veasey, Sara W., Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Berry, David, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, King, Brian, and Domingues, Catia

Subjects
Surface (mathematics), Atmospheric Science, Materials science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Mineralogy, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMethodologies_DOCUMENTANDTEXTPROCESSING, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, 020701 environmental engineering, GeneralLiterature_REFERENCE(e.g.,dictionaries,encyclopedias,glossaries), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year's end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981-2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June's Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°-0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000-18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981-2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir-Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael's landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and $6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14-15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000-10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars).

Published
2019
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4. State of the climate in 2017

Author

Abernethy, R., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, R., Albanil Encarnación, Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Anderson, John, Andreassen, L. M., Argüez, Anthony, Armitage, C., Arndt, Derek S., Avalos, Grinia, Azorin-Molina, César, Báez, Julián, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behe, Carolina, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bolmgren, K., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Bouchon, Marilú, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Ethan C., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel, Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Lijing, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Crouch, Jake, Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davis, Sean M., Davletshin, S. G., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., De Laat, Jos, De Gasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Deline, P., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dickerson, C., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Eakin, C. Mark, El Kharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farmer, J., Farrell, S., Fauchald, P., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Geiger, Erick F., Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, Andrea M., Goni, Gustavo, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles P., Gugliemin, Mario, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, L., Harris, Ian, Hartfield, Gail, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Rafael, Hernández, Sosa Marieta, Heron, Scott F., Heuzé, C., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng, Hobbs, William R., Horstkotte, T., Huang, Boyin, Hubert, Daan, Hueuzé, Céline, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ibrahim, M. M., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Khan, M. S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, S. E., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Mears, Carl A., Liu, Gang, Li, Bailing, Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Luthcke, S., Macias-Fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marín, Dora, Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martin, A., Martínez, Alejandra G., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys, Marsh, Benjamin L., Lyman, John M., Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, Mark, Meier, W., Meijers, Andrew J.S., Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Sukarni, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, L., Newman, Paul A., Nielsen-Gammon, John W., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Noll, Ben E., O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Peltier, Alexandre, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pinzon, J., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C., Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, R., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benjamin, Roth, Chris, Roth, David Mark, Rusak, James A., Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayad, T. A., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Silow, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Skirving, William J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Strong, Alan E., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Thorsteinsson, T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., TImofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle V., Tobin, Skie, Togawa, H., Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., Van Der Ronald, J. A., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velden, Christopher S., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vickers, H., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, M., Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Widlansky, Matthew J., Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Wood, K., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yoon, Huang, York, A., Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus G., Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Slagle, Mary, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., McVicar, Tim R., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, LS Religiewetenschap, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Zonder bezoldiging NED, LS Taalverwerving, Leerstoel Tubergen, Afd Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Afd Pharmacology, Dep IRAS, Marine and Atmospheric Research, and OFR - Religious Studies

Subjects
Atmospheric Science
Abstract

In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina-the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan's all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982-present). According to paleoclimate studies, today's abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean. Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier. Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988. Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0-700-m and 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average. In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm. Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h-1. Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet. Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolívar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100 000 people. Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region's driest summer on record. In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.

Published
2018

5. Building resilience to mosquito-borne diseases in the Caribbean.

Author

Lowe, Rachel, Ryan, Sadie J., Mahon, Roché, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Trotman, Adrian R., Boodram, Laura-Lee G., Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J., and Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.

Subjects
CLIMATOLOGY, GOVERNMENT policy, CLIMATE extremes, GOAL (Psychology), ARBOVIRUS diseases, MEDICAL climatology, HEAT waves (Meteorology), FLOOD warning systems
Abstract

Small island developing states in the Caribbean are among the most vulnerable countries on the planet to climate variability and climate change. In the last 3 decades, the Caribbean region has undergone frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, and droughts. This has had a detrimental impact on population health and well-being, including an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Recent advances in climate science have enhanced our ability to anticipate hydrometeorological hazards and associated public health challenges. Here, we discuss progress towards bridging the gap between climate science and public health decision-making in the Caribbean to build health system resilience to extreme climatic events. We focus on the development of climate services to help manage mosquito-transmitted disease epidemics. There are numerous areas of ongoing biological research aimed at better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. Here, we emphasise additional factors that affect our ability to operationalise this biological understanding. We highlight a lack of financial resources, technical expertise, data sharing, and formalised partnerships between climate and health communities as major limiting factors to developing sustainable climate services for health. Recommendations include investing in integrated climate, health and mosquito surveillance systems, building regional and local human resource capacities, and designing national and regional cross-sectoral policies and national action plans. This will contribute towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and maximising regional development partnerships and co-benefits for improved health and well-being in the Caribbean. This Perspective article discusses progress towards bridging the gap between climate science and public health decision-making, highlighting the importance of multi-institutional and interdisciplinary collaborations to develop early warning systems for arboviral diseases in the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
Full Text
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6. State of the Climate in 2014

Author

Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., Ackerman, Steven A., Adams, Nicolaus G., Adler, Robert F., Albanil, Adelina, Alfaro, E. J., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, Juan, Arndt, Derek S., Arzhanova, N. M., Aschan, M. M., Azorin-Molina, César, Banzon, Viva, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Bazo, Juan, Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettolli, María L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, Mario, Bill, Brian D., Billheimer, Sam, Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Boudet, Dagne, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, Gualberto, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Chandler, Elise, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Daniel, Chung, E. S., Cinque, Kathy, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A., Cogley, J. G., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica N., Crotwell, Molly J., Crouch, Jake, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, Dale, Di Girolamo, Larry, Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolgov, A. V., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Dortch, Quay, Doucette, Greg, Drozdov, D. S., Ducklow, Hugh, Dunn, Robert J.H., Durán-Quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Espinoza, Jhan C., Etienne-Leblanc, Sheryl, Evans, Thomas E., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, Robert S., Fedaeff, Nava, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogarty, Chris T., Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, Michael J., Fountain, Andrew, Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garzoli, Silvia, Gerland, S., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, R. Sorbonne, Goni, Gustavo, Goto, A., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles Chip, Gugliemin, Mauro, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hakkarainen, J., Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, Richard R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Marieta, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Zeng Zhen, Huang, Boyin, Huelsing, Hannah K., Huffman, George J., Hughes, C., Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, Johannesen, E., John, Viju, Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Jones, Philip D., Joseph, Annie C., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Kimberlain, Todd B., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kobayashi, Shinya, Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kovacs, K. M., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kudela, Raphael, Kumar, Arun, Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, Eric, L’Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Lo Monaco, Claire, Long, Craig S., López Álvarez, Luis Alfonso, Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, John M., Maberly, Stephen C., Maddux, Brent C., Malheiros Ramos, Andrea, Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mata, Mauricio M., Mathis, Jeremy T., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J. W., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Meinen, Christopher S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, Melisa, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Metzl, N., Minnis, Patrick, Miralles, Diego G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, Gary T., Monselesan, Didier, Monteiro, Pedro, Montzka, Stephen A., Morice, Colin, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Nash, Eric R., Naveira-Garabato, Alberto C., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, O’Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, E. Hyung, Parker, David, Parrington, M., Parsons, A. Rost, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Pons, M. R., Porter, Avalon O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, Sean, Quintana, Juan, Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, Michael, Rimmer, Alon, Rintoul, Steve, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodríguez Solís, José L., Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sabine, Christopher L., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schemm, Jae, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schmidtko, Sunke, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Setzer, Alberto, Sharp, M., Shaw, Adrian, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Sharon L., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, Martin, Stennett-Brown, Roxann, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, D. A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Talley, Lynne D., Tamar, Gerard, Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, Katrin, Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Timmermans, M. L., Tirnanes, Joaquin A., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trainer, Vera L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., van der A., Ronald J., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vigneswaran, Bala, Vincent, Lucie A., Volkov, Denis, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Wåhlin, Anna, Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, Michael J.M., Willie, Shem, Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yamada, Ryuji, Yim, So Young, Yin, Xungang, Young, Steven H., Yu, Lisan, Zahid, H., Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhou, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Gilbert, Kristin, Maycock, Tom, Osborne, Susan, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., Ambrose, Barbara J., Griffin, Jessicca, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Young, Teresa, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Earth and Climate

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Perspective (graphical), 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Environmental science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.

Published
2015
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7. Co-developing climate services for public health: Stakeholder needs and perceptions for the prevention and control of Aedes-transmitted diseases in the Caribbean.

Author

Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M., Romero, Moory, Hinds, Avery Q. J., Lowe, Rachel, Mahon, Roché, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Rollock, Leslie, Gittens-St. Hilaire, Marquita, St. Ville, Sylvester, Ryan, Sadie J., Trotman, Adrian R., and Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.

Subjects
PUBLIC health, HEALTH practitioners, MEDICAL climatology, CLIMATE change & health, GEOGRAPHIC information systems, ARBOVIRUS diseases
Abstract

Small island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean region are challenged with managing the health outcomes of a changing climate. Health and climate sectors have partnered to co-develop climate services to improve the management of emerging arboviral diseases (e.g., dengue fever), for example, through the development of climate-driven early warning systems. The objective of this study was to identify health and climate stakeholder perceptions and needs in the Caribbean, with respect to the development of climate services for arboviruses. Stakeholders included public decision makers and practitioners from the climate and health sectors at the regional (Caribbean) level and from the countries of Dominica and Barbados. From April to June 2017, we conducted interviews (n = 41), surveys (n = 32), and national workshops with stakeholders. Survey responses were tabulated, and audio recordings were transcribed and analyzed using qualitative coding to identify responses by research topic, country/region, and sector. Health practitioners indicated that their jurisdiction is currently experiencing an increased risk of arboviral diseases associated with climate variability, and most anticipated that this risk will increase in the future. National health sectors reported financial limitations and a lack of technical expertise in geographic information systems (GIS), statistics, and modeling, which constrained their ability to implement climate services for arboviruses. National climate sectors were constrained by a lack of personnel. Stakeholders highlighted the need to strengthen partnerships with the private sector, academia, and civil society. They identified a gap in local research on climate-arbovirus linkages, which constrained the ability of the health sector to make informed decisions. Strategies to strengthen the climate-health partnership included a top-down approach by engaging senior leadership, multi-lateral collaboration agreements, national committees on climate and health, and shared spaces of dialogue. Mechanisms for mainstreaming climate services for health operations to control arboviruses included climatic-health bulletins and an online GIS platform that would allow for regional data sharing and the generation of spatiotemporal epidemic forecasts. Stakeholders identified a 3-month forecast of arboviral illness as the optimal time frame for an epidemic forecast. These findings support the creation of interdisciplinary and intersectoral 'communities of practice' and the co-design of climate services for the Caribbean public health sector. By fostering the effective use of climate information within health policy, research and practice, nations will have greater capacity to adapt to a changing climate. Small island nations in the Caribbean region are highly vulnerable to climate change, whose effects include increased frequency and severity of droughts and increased intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. Extreme weather and climate events affect directly or indirectly most dimensions of human well being, including mental and physical health, food, housing, freshwater, and livelihoods. Climate-driven early warning systems (EWS) to predict epidemics of dengue fever and other mosquito-borne diseases can help nations to adapt to changing climate conditions. In this study we assessed climate and health sector stakeholder perceptions and needs to inform the development of a dengue EWS. Stakeholders identified capacity limitations (financial resources, trained personnel), and the need for local research on climate-arbovirus linkages to inform decision makers. They identified six key strategies for strengthening the partnership between the climate-health sectors, and they assessed the viability of public health actions that could be take in response to short (2 week), medium (3 month) and long-term (1 year) forecasts of dengue fever epidemics. The results of this study contribute to regional Caribbean efforts to develop climate services for health, a key adaptation strategy to reduce the health impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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8. Spatiotemporal Tools for Emerging and Endemic Disease Hotspots in Small Areas: An Analysis of Dengue and Chikungunya in Barbados, 2013-2016.

Author

Lippi CA, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Romero M, Lowe R, Mahon R, Van Meerbeeck CJ, Rollock L, Gittens-St Hilaire M, Trotman AR, Holligan D, Kirton S, Borbor-Cordova MJ, and Ryan SJ

Subjects
Aedes virology, Animals, Barbados epidemiology, Chikungunya Fever transmission, Chikungunya Fever virology, Chikungunya virus physiology, Cluster Analysis, Dengue transmission, Dengue virology, Dengue Virus physiology, Endemic Diseases statistics & numerical data, Epidemiological Monitoring, Humans, Incidence, Mosquito Vectors virology, Public Health, Risk, Chikungunya Fever epidemiology, Chikungunya virus pathogenicity, Dengue epidemiology, Dengue Virus pathogenicity, Disease Outbreaks, Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Abstract

Dengue fever and other febrile mosquito-borne diseases place considerable health and economic burdens on small island nations in the Caribbean. Here, we used two methods of cluster detection to find potential hotspots of transmission of dengue and chikungunya in Barbados, and to assess the impact of input surveillance data and methodology on observed patterns of risk. Using Moran's I and spatial scan statistics, we analyzed the geospatial and temporal distribution of disease cases and rates across Barbados for dengue fever in 2013-2016, and a chikungunya outbreak in 2014. During years with high numbers of dengue cases, hotspots for cases were found with Moran's I in the south and central regions in 2013 and 2016, respectively. Using smoothed disease rates, clustering was detected in all years for dengue. Hotspots suggesting higher rates were not detected via spatial scan statistics, but coldspots suggesting lower than expected rates of disease activity were found in southwestern Barbados during high case years of dengue. No significant spatiotemporal structure was found in cases during the chikungunya outbreak. Spatial analysis of surveillance data is useful in identifying outbreak hotspots, potentially complementing existing early warning systems. We caution that these methods should be used in a manner appropriate to available data and reflecting explicit public health goals-managing for overall case numbers or targeting anomalous rates for further investigation.

Published
2020
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