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Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance is considered the functional cure and the optimal treatment endpoint for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Patients with CHB who cleared HBsAg generally have a favorable clinical course with minimal risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or cirrhotic complications. Nevertheless, a minority of patients still develop HCC despite HBsAg seroclearance. While patients with liver cirrhosis are still recommended for HCC surveillance, whether other non-cirrhotic patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance should remain on HCC surveillance remains unclear. This review provides an overview of the incidence of HBsAg seroclearance, the factors associated with the occurrence of HBsAg seroclearance, the durability of HBsAg seroclearance, the risk of developing HCC after HBsAg seroclearance, the risk factors associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance, the role of HCC risk scores, and the implications on HCC surveillance. Existing HCC risk scores have a reasonably good performance in patients after HBsAg seroclearance. In the era of artificial intelligence, future HCC risk prediction models based on artificial intelligence and longitudinal clinical data may further improve the prediction accuracy to establish a foundation of a risk score-based HCC surveillance strategy. As different novel hepatitis B virus (HBV) antiviral agents aiming at HBsAg seroclearance are under active development, new knowledge is anticipated on the natural history and HCC risk prediction of patients treated with new HBV drugs.

Background & Aims: The latest Baveno VII consensus has provided guidance for identifying patients who have truly recompensated from those with hepatic decompensation. This study aimed to evaluate patients’ transplant-free survival in three different stages of cirrhosis. Methods: All patients with chronic HBV infection and liver cirrhosis treated with oral nucleos(t)ide analogues from March 2006 to December 2022 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients with follow-up duration of

Background/Aims We aimed to determine the association between blood urea level and incident cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic liver disease (CLD) patients. Methods The association between blood urea level and liver fibrosis/liver-related events were evaluated on continuous scale with restricted cubic spline curves based on generalized additive model or Cox proportional hazards models. Then, the above associations were evaluated by urea level within intervals. Results Among 4,282 patients who had undergone liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography, baseline urea level had a U-shaped association with LSM and hepatic decompensation development after a median follow-up of 5.5 years. Compared to patients with urea of 3.6–9.9 mmol/L, those with urea ≤3.5 mmol/L (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.68–10.24) and ≥10 mmol/L (aHR, 5.22; 95% CI, 1.86–14.67) had higher risk of hepatic decompensation. Patients with urea ≤3.5 mmol/L also had higher risk of incident cirrhosis (aHR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.50–6.98). The association between low urea level and incident cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation was consistently observed in subgroups by age, gender, albumin level, and comorbidities. The U-shaped relationship between urea level and LSM was validated in another population screening study (n=917). Likewise, urea ≤3.5 mmol/L was associated with a higher risk of incident cirrhosis in a territory-wide cohort of 12,476 patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease at a median follow-up of 9.9 years (aHR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03–1.57). Conclusions We identified a U-shaped relationship between the urea level and liver fibrosis/incident cirrhosis/hepatic decompensation in patients with CLD.

Background/Aims Serum fibrosis scores comprised of common laboratory tests have high utility to assess severity of liver fibrosis. We aimed to derive and validate a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk score based on serum fibrosis scores to predict HCC in treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Methods Fifteen thousand one hundred eighty-seven treatment-naïve adult CHB patients were identified to form the training cohort in this retrospective study. Individual fibrosis score was included to construct a new HCC prediction score. The score was externally validated in an independent treatment-naïve Korean CHB cohort. Results 180/15,187 patients (1.2%) in training cohort and 47/4,286 patients (1.1%) in validation cohort developed HCC during a mean follow-up of 52 and 50 months, respectively. The newly developed HCC risk score, Liang score, is composed of gender, age, hepatitis B virus DNA, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and ranges from 0 to 22. Area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve of Liang score was 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.89). A cutoff value of nine provided an extremely high negative predictive value of 99.9% and high sensitivity of 90.0% at 5 years in the validation cohort. Patients with Liang score ≤9 had HCC incidence

The benefit of colonoscopy and/or polypectomy for colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the incidence rate of CRC in patients with NAFLD who had and had not undergone colonoscopy. We conducted a retrospective territory‐wide cohort study for patients aged over 40 years with NAFLD identified with the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2014. Patients were followed until CRC diagnosis, death, or December 31, 2017. We estimated CRC incidence and standardized incidence ratio (SIR) using the general population of Hong Kong as reference. We included 8,351 patients with NAFLD in the final analysis (median age, 56.2 years; interquartile ratio [IQR], 49.2‐65.3 years; 45.4% male; median follow‐up, 7.4 years; IQR, 5.4‐9.6 years). Compared with the general population, patients with NAFLD who had not undergone colonoscopy had a higher incidence of CRC (SIR, 2.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.64‐2.88; P 2.67) had a significantly higher risk of CRC after adjusting for demographic and metabolic factors. Conclusion: Patients with NAFLD who had undergone colonoscopy had a lower incidence of CRC than the general population, especially among those aged ≥50 years or with DM. A high FIB‐4 index was associated with a higher risk of CRC.

Background & Aims: Accurate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction facilitates appropriate surveillance strategy and reduces cancer mortality. We aimed to derive and validate novel machine learning models to predict HCC in a territory-wide cohort of patients with chronic viral hepatitis (CVH) using data from the Hospital Authority Data Collaboration Lab (HADCL). Methods: This was a territory-wide, retrospective, observational, cohort study of patients with CVH in Hong Kong in 2000–2018 identified from HADCL based on viral markers, diagnosis codes, and antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B and/or C. The cohort was randomly split into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Five popular machine learning methods, namely, logistic regression, ridge regression, AdaBoost, decision tree, and random forest, were performed and compared to find the best prediction model. Results: A total of 124,006 patients with CVH with complete data were included to build the models. In the training cohort (n = 86,804; 6,821 HCC), ridge regression (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.842), decision tree (0.952), and random forest (0.992) performed the best. In the validation cohort (n = 37,202; 2,875 HCC), ridge regression (AUROC 0.844) and random forest (0.837) maintained their accuracy, which was significantly higher than those of HCC risk scores: CU-HCC (0.672), GAG-HCC (0.745), REACH-B (0.671), PAGE-B (0.748), and REAL-B (0.712) scores. The low cut-off (0.07) of HCC ridge score (HCC-RS) achieved 90.0% sensitivity and 98.6% negative predictive value (NPV) in the validation cohort. The high cut-off (0.15) of HCC-RS achieved high specificity (90.0%) and NPV (95.6%); 31.1% of patients remained indeterminate. Conclusions: HCC-RS from the ridge regression machine learning model accurately predicted HCC in patients with CVH. These machine learning models may be developed as built-in functional keys or calculators in electronic health systems to reduce cancer mortality. Lay summary: Novel machine learning models generated accurate risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic viral hepatitis. HCC ridge score was consistently more accurate than existing HCC risk scores. These models may be incorporated into electronic medical health systems to develop appropriate cancer surveillance strategies and reduce cancer death.

Abstract Background and Aims Metformin is an oral anti‐hyperglycemic recommended by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) as a preferred initial pharmacologic agent for type 2 diabetes. Metabolic acidosis is a rare yet severe side effect of it. We examined the association of metformin use and dosage on the risk of metabolic acidosis in diabetic patients with different degrees of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)‐related cirrhosis and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods Metabolic acidosis was defined by blood pH ≤7.35, together with lactate >5 mmol/L or arterial bicarbonate ≤18 mmol/L or venous bicarbonate ≤21 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. Child‐Pugh class and CKD stage were included in the model as time‐dependent covariates. Age, gender, comorbidities, and use of relevant medications were adjusted as covariates. Maximum daily dose of metformin was classified into ≤1000 mg and >1000 mg. Results We identified 4431 diabetic patients with CHB‐related cirrhosis between 2000 and 2017 from a territory‐wide database in Hong Kong. The risk of metabolic acidosis increased with Child‐Pugh class B and C cirrhosis regardless of CKD stage (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR] ranged from 3.50 to 86.16). Metformin use was associated with a higher risk in patients with Child‐Pugh class B or C cirrhosis and stage 3A CKD or above (aSHR ranged from 1.55 to 2.46). In stage 4/5 CKD, a daily dose of metformin ≤1000 mg was still associated with a higher risk of metabolic acidosis regardless of the severity of cirrhosis (aSHR ranged from 2.45 to 3.92). Conclusion In conclusion, patients with Child‐Pugh class B cirrhosis or above were at a higher risk of metabolic acidosis. Metformin further increased the risk in patients with Child‐Pugh class B cirrhosis or above and stage 3A CKD or above. Dose adjustment in stage 4/5 CKD did not reduce the risk of metabolic acidosis.

Background & Aims: Antiviral treatment is known to improve survival in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Yet, the treatment uptake in CHB patients remains low. We aimed to report the secular trend in antiviral treatment uptake from 2007–2017, and to compare the effect of different nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) initiation times (before vs. after HCC diagnosis) on survival. Methods: A 3-month landmark analysis was used to compare overall survival in patients not receiving NA treatment (i.e. no NA), patients receiving NAs after their first HCC treatment (i.e. post-HCC NA), and patients receiving NAs ≤3 months before their first HCC treatment (i.e. pre-HCC NA). A propensity score-weighted Cox proportional hazards model was used to balance clinical characteristics between the 3 groups and to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). Results: The uptake of antiviral treatment in HCC patients increased from 47.3% in 2007 to 98.3% in 2017. The pre-HCC NA group contributed mostly to the uptake rate, which increased from 72.7% to 96.0% in the past decade. In addition, 3,843 CHB patients (407 no NA; 2,932 pre-HCC NA; 504 post-HCC NA) with HCC, receiving at least 1 type of HCC treatment, were included in the analysis. Lack of NA treatment at the time of HCC diagnosis increased the risk of death (weighted HR 3.05; 95% CI 2.70–3.44; p