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1. Can large language models help predict results from a complex behavioural science study?

Author

Steffen Lippert, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Warren Tierney, Wilson Cyrus-Lai, Eric Luis Uhlmann, and Thomas Pfeiffer

Subjects
forecasting, large language models, meta-research, Science
Abstract

We tested whether large language models (LLMs) can help predict results from a complex behavioural science experiment. In study 1, we investigated the performance of the widely used LLMs GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 in forecasting the empirical findings of a large-scale experimental study of emotions, gender, and social perceptions. We found that GPT-4, but not GPT-3.5, matched the performance of a cohort of 119 human experts, with correlations of 0.89 (GPT-4), 0.07 (GPT-3.5) and 0.87 (human experts) between aggregated forecasts and realized effect sizes. In study 2, providing participants from a university subject pool the opportunity to query a GPT-4 powered chatbot significantly increased the accuracy of their forecasts. Results indicate promise for artificial intelligence (AI) to help anticipate—at scale and minimal cost—which claims about human behaviour will find empirical support and which ones will not. Our discussion focuses on avenues for human–AI collaboration in science.

Published
2024
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2. The Psychological Science Accelerator’s COVID-19 rapid-response dataset

Author

Erin M. Buchanan, Savannah C. Lewis, Bastien Paris, Patrick S. Forscher, Jeffrey M. Pavlacic, Julie E. Beshears, Shira Meir Drexler, Amélie Gourdon-Kanhukamwe, Peter R Mallik, Miguel Alejandro A. Silan, Jeremy K. Miller, Hans IJzerman, Hannah Moshontz, Jennifer L. Beaudry, Jordan W. Suchow, Christopher R. Chartier, Nicholas A. Coles, MohammadHasan Sharifian, Anna Louise Todsen, Carmel A. Levitan, Flávio Azevedo, Nicole Legate, Blake Heller, Alexander J. Rothman, Charles A. Dorison, Brian P. Gill, Ke Wang, Vaughan W. Rees, Nancy Gibbs, Amit Goldenberg, Thuy-vy Thi Nguyen, James J. Gross, Gwenaêl Kaminski, Claudia C. von Bastian, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Farnaz Mosannenzadeh, Soufian Azouaghe, Alexandre Bran, Susana Ruiz-Fernandez, Anabela Caetano Santos, Niv Reggev, Janis H. Zickfeld, Handan Akkas, Myrto Pantazi, Ivan Ropovik, Max Korbmacher, Patrícia Arriaga, Biljana Gjoneska, Lara Warmelink, Sara G. Alves, Gabriel Lins de Holanda Coelho, Stefan Stieger, Vidar Schei, Paul H. P. Hanel, Barnabas Szaszi, Maksim Fedotov, Jan Antfolk, Gabriela-Mariana Marcu, Jana Schrötter, Jonas R. Kunst, Sandra J. Geiger, Adeyemi Adetula, Halil Emre Kocalar, Julita Kielińska, Pavol Kačmár, Ahmed Bokkour, Oscar J. Galindo-Caballero, Ikhlas Djamai, Sara Johanna Pöntinen, Bamikole Emmanuel AGESIN, Teodor Jernsäther, Anum Urooj, Nikolay R. Rachev, Maria Koptjevskaja-Tamm, Murathan Kurfalı, Ilse L. Pit, Ranran Li, Sami Çoksan, Dmitrii Dubrov, Tamar Elise Paltrow, Gabriel Baník, Tatiana Korobova, Anna Studzinska, Xiaoming Jiang, John Jamir Benzon R. Aruta, Jáchym Vintr, Faith Chiu, Lada Kaliska, Jana B. Berkessel, Murat Tümer, Sara Morales-Izquierdo, Hu Chuan-Peng, Kevin Vezirian, Anna Dalla Rosa, Olga Bialobrzeska, Martin R. Vasilev, Julia Beitner, Ondřej Kácha, Barbara Žuro, Minja Westerlund, Mina Nedelcheva-Datsova, Andrej Findor, Dajana Krupić, Marta Kowal, Adrian Dahl Askelund, Razieh Pourafshari, Jasna Milošević Đorđević, Nadya-Daniela Schmidt, Ekaterina Baklanova, Anna Szala, Ilya Zakharov, Marek A. Vranka, Keiko Ihaya, Caterina Grano, Nicola Cellini, Michał Białek, Lisa Anton-Boicuk, Ilker Dalgar, Arca Adıgüzel, Jeroen P. H. Verharen, Princess Lovella G. Maturan, Angelos P. Kassianos, Raquel Oliveira, Martin Čadek, Vera Cubela Adoric, Asil Ali Özdoğru, Therese E. Sverdrup, Balazs Aczel, Danilo Zambrano, Afroja Ahmed, Christian K. Tamnes, Yuki Yamada, Leonhard Volz, Naoyuki Sunami, Lilian Suter, Luc Vieira, Agata Groyecka-Bernard, Julia Arhondis Kamburidis, Ulf-Dietrich Reips, Mikayel Harutyunyan, Gabriel Agboola Adetula, Tara Bulut Allred, Krystian Barzykowski, Benedict G Antazo, Andras N. Zsido, Dušana Dušan Šakan, Wilson Cyrus-Lai, Lina Pernilla Ahlgren, Matej Hruška, Diego Vega, Efisio Manunta, Aviv Mokady, Mariagrazia Capizzi, Marcel Martončik, Nicolas Say, Katarzyna Filip, Roosevelt Vilar, Karolina Staniaszek, Milica Vdovic, Matus Adamkovic, Niklas Johannes, Nandor Hajdu, Noga Cohen, Clara Overkott, Dino Krupić, Barbora Hubena, Gustav Nilsonne, Giovanna Mioni, Claudio Singh Solorzano, Tatsunori Ishii, Zhang Chen, Elizaveta Kushnir, Cemre Karaarslan, Rafael R. Ribeiro, Ahmed Khaoudi, Małgorzata Kossowska, Jozef Bavolar, Karlijn Hoyer, Marta Roczniewska, Alper Karababa, Maja Becker, Renan P. Monteiro, Yoshihiko Kunisato, Irem Metin-Orta, Sylwia Adamus, Luca Kozma, Gabriela Czarnek, Artur Domurat, Eva Štrukelj, Daniela Serrato Alvarez, Michal Parzuchowski, Sébastien Massoni, Johanna Czamanski-Cohen, Ekaterina Pronizius, Fany Muchembled, Kevin van Schie, Aslı Saçaklı, Evgeniya Hristova, Anna O. Kuzminska, Abdelilah Charyate, Gijsbert Bijlstra, Reza Afhami, Nadyanna M. Majeed, Erica D. Musser, Miroslav Sirota, Robert M. Ross, Siu Kit Yeung, Marietta Papadatou-Pastou, Francesco Foroni, Inês A. T. Almeida, Dmitry Grigoryev, David M. G. Lewis, Dawn L. Holford, Steve M. J. Janssen, Srinivasan Tatachari, Carlota Batres, Jonas K. Olofsson, Shimrit Daches, Anabel Belaus, Gerit Pfuhl, Nadia Sarai Corral-Frias, Daniela Sousa, Jan Philipp Röer, Peder Mortvedt Isager, Hendrik Godbersen, Radoslaw B. Walczak, Natalia Van Doren, Dongning Ren, Tripat Gill, Martin Voracek, Lisa M. DeBruine, Michele Anne, Sanja Batić Očovaj, Andrew G. Thomas, Alexios Arvanitis, Thomas Ostermann, Kelly Wolfe, Nwadiogo Chisom Arinze, Carsten Bundt, Claus Lamm, Robert J Calin-Jageman, William E. Davis, Maria Karekla, Saša Zorjan, Lisa M. Jaremka, Jim Uttley, Monika Hricova, Monica A Koehn, Natalia Kiselnikova, Hui Bai, Anthony J. Krafnick, Busra Bahar Balci, Tonia Ballantyne, Samuel Lins, Zahir Vally, Celia Esteban-Serna, Kathleen Schmidt, Paulo Manuel L. Macapagal, Paulina Szwed, Przemysław Marcin Zdybek, David Moreau, W. Matthew Collins, Jennifer A. Joy-Gaba, Iris Vilares, Ulrich S. Tran, Jordane Boudesseul, Nihan Albayrak-Aydemir, Barnaby James Wyld Dixson, Jennifer T Perillo, Ana Ferreira, Erin C. Westgate, Christopher L. Aberson, Azuka Ikechukwu Arinze, Bastian Jaeger, Muhammad Mussaffa Butt, Jaime R. Silva, Daniel Shafik Storage, Allison P Janak, William Jiménez-Leal, Jose A. Soto, Agnieszka Sorokowska, Randy McCarthy, Alexa M Tullett, Martha Frias-Armenta, Matheus Fernando Felix Ribeiro, Andree Hartanto, Paul A. G. Forbes, Megan L. Willis, María del Carmen Tejada R, Adriana Julieth Olaya Torres, Ian D Stephen, David C. Vaidis, Anabel de la Rosa-Gómez, Karen Yu, Clare A. M. Sutherland, Mathi Manavalan, Behzad Behzadnia, Jan Urban, Ernest Baskin, Joseph P. McFall, Chisom Esther Ogbonnaya, Cynthia H. Y. Fu, Rima-Maria Rahal, Izuchukwu L. G. Ndukaihe, Thomas J. Hostler, Heather Barry Kappes, Piotr Sorokowski, Meetu Khosla, Ljiljana B. Lazarevic, Luis Eudave, Johannes K. Vilsmeier, Elkin O. Luis, Rafał Muda, Elena Agadullina, Rodrigo A. Cárcamo, Crystal Reeck, Gulnaz Anjum, Mónica Camila Toro Venegas, Michal Misiak, Richard M. Ryan, Nora L. Nock, Giovanni A. Travaglino, Michael C. Mensink, Gilad Feldman, Aaron L. Wichman, Weilun Chou, Ignazio Ziano, Martin Seehuus, William J. Chopik, Franki Y. H. Kung, Joelle Carpentier, Leigh Ann Vaughn, Hongfei Du, Qinyu Xiao, Tiago J. S. Lima, Chris Noone, Sandersan Onie, Frederick Verbruggen, Theda Radtke, and Maximilian A. Primbs

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Measurement(s) COVID-19 Protocols, Restrictions • Health Behaviors • Personality and Behavioral Change, CTCAE • Emotion • Message Framing • Self-Determination Technology Type(s) Survey • Experiment Design Type Factor Type(s) COVID-19 Protocols, Restrictions • Health Behaviors • Loss-Gain Framing • Cognitive Reappraisal • Self-Determination Messaging Sample Characteristic - Organism Homo Sample Characteristic - Environment Daily Life Sample Characteristic - Location North America • South America • Africa • Australia • Europe • United Kingdom • Asia

Published
2023
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3. Stress and worry in the 2020 coronavirus pandemic : relationships to trust and compliance with preventive measures across 48 countries in the COVIDiSTRESS global survey

Author

Andreas Lieberoth, Shiang-Yi Lin, Sabrina Stöckli, Hyemin Han, Marta Kowal, Rebekah Gelpi, Stavroula Chrona, Thao Phuong Tran, Alma Jeftić, Jesper Rasmussen, Huseyin Cakal, Taciano L. Milfont, Yuki Yamada, Rizwana Amin, Stephane Debove, Rebekah Gelpí, Ivan Flis, Hafize Sahin, Fidan Turk, Yao-Yuan Yeh, Yuen Wan Ho, Pilleriin Sikka, Guillermo Delgado-Garcia, David Lacko, Salomé Mamede, Oulmann Zerhouni, Jarno Tuominen, Tuba Bircan, Austin Horng-En Wang, Gozde Ikizer, Samuel Lins, Anna Studzinska, Muhammad Kamal Uddin, Fernanda Pérez-Gay Juárez, Fang-Yu Chen, Aybegum Memisoglu Sanli, Agnieszka E. Lys, Vicenta Reynoso-Alcántara, Rubén Flores González, Amanda M. Griffin, Claudio Rafael Castro López, Jana Nezkusilova, Dominik-Borna Ćepulić, Sibele Aquino, Tiago A. Marot, Angélique M. Blackburn, Loïs Boullu, Jozef Bavolar, Pavol Kacmar, Charles K. S. Wu, João Carlos Areias, Jean C. Natividade, Silvia Mari, Oli Ahmed, Vilius Dranseika, Irene Cristofori, Tao Coll-Martín, Kristina Eichel, Raisa Kumaga, Eda Ermagan-Caglar, Dastan Bamwesigye, Benjamin Tag, Carlos C. Contreras-Ibáñez, John Jamir Benzon R. Aruta, Priyanka A. Naidu, Thao P. Tran, İlknur Dilekler, Jiří Čeněk, Md. Nurul Islam, Brendan Ch'ng, Cristina Sechi, Steve Nebel, Gülden Sayılan, Shruti Jha, Sara Vestergren, Keiko Ihaya, Gautreau Guillaume, Giovanni A. Travaglino, Nikolay R. Rachev, Krzysztof Hanusz, Martin Pírko, J. Noël West, Wilson Cyrus-Lai, Arooj Najmussaqib, Eugenia Romano, Valdas Noreika, Arian Musliu, Emilija Sungailaite, Mehmet Kosa, Antonio G. Lentoor, Nidhi Sinha, Andrew R. Bender, Dar Meshi, Pratik Bhandari, Grace Byrne, Alma Jeftic, Kalina Kalinova, Barbora Hubena, Manuel Ninaus, Carlos Díaz, Alessia Scarpaci, Karolina Koszałkowska, Daniel Pankowski, Teodora Yaneva, Sara Morales-Izquierdo, Ena Uzelac, Yookyung Lee, Dayana Hristova, Moh Abdul Hakim, Eliane Deschrijver, Phillip S. Kavanagh, Aya Shata, Cecilia Reyna, Gabriel A. De Leon, Franco Tisocco, Débora Jeanette Mola, Maor Shani, Samkelisiwe Mahlungulu, Daphna Hausman Ozery, Marjolein C. J. Caniëls, Pablo Sebastián Correa, María Victoria Ortiz, Roosevelt Vilar, Tsvetelina Makaveeva, Lotte Pummerer, Irina Nikolova, Mila Bujić, Zea Szebeni, Tiziana Pennato, Mihaela Taranu, Liz Martinez, Tereza Capelos, Anabel Belaus, Dmitrii Dubrov, Swedish School of Social Science, Helsinki Inequality Initiative (INEQ), Social Psychologists Studying Intergroup Relations (ESSO), Lieberoth, A, Lin, S, Stockli, S, Han, H, Kowal, M, Gelpi, R, Chrona, S, Tran, T, Jeftic, A, Rasmussen, J, Cakal, H, Milfont, T, The COVIDiSTRESS global survey, C, Mari, S, Tampere University, Computing Sciences, Faculdade de Psicologia e de Ciências da Educação, Department of Organisation, RS-Research Line Learning (part of LIRS program), RS-Research Line Resilience (part of LIRS program), and Dranseika, Vilius

Subjects
Coping (psychology), behavioral measures, Applied psychology, coronavirus, 050109 social psychology, DETERMINANTS, QUARANTINE, stress, RC705, 0302 clinical medicine, stre, Pandemic, open science, 050602 political science & public administration, worry, 0601 history and archaeology, 030212 general & internal medicine, COVID-19, compliance behaviour, trust, social psychology, registered report, lcsh:Science, purl.org/becyt/ford/5.1 [https], media_common, Multidisciplinary, FIT INDEXES, purl.org/becyt/ford/5 [https], Trivsel, 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology, H1N1, 05 social sciences, public health, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, 06 humanities and the arts, behavioral sciences, 3. Good health, 0506 political science, Multidisciplinary Sciences, covid-19, Registered Report, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Worry, 5200 Other social sciences, Psychology, M-PSI/01 - PSICOLOGIA GENERALE, MENTAL-HEALTH, 515 Psychology, media_common.quotation_subject, BF, psychology, compliance, Compliance (psychology), 03 medical and health sciences, Mental distress, Social support, ADHERENCE, Psychology and Cognitive Neuroscience, 650 Management & public relations, Samfund/samtid, 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences, coronavirus pandemic, M-PSI/05 - PSICOLOGIA SOCIALE, SARS, Government, GENDER-DIFFERENCES, 060101 anthropology, Science & Technology, Psykologi, Covid 19, social support, Mental health, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, MEASUREMENT INVARIANCE, MEDIA TRUST, lcsh:Q, M-PSI/08 - PSICOLOGIA CLINICA, SOCIAL SUPPORT, PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT, ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME
Abstract

The COVIDiSTRESS global survey collects data on early human responses to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic from 173 429 respondents in 48 countries. The open science study was co-designed by an international consortium of researchers to investigate how psychological responses differ across countries and cultures, and how this has impacted behaviour, coping and trust in government efforts to slow the spread of the virus. Starting in March 2020, COVIDiSTRESS leveraged the convenience of unpaid online recruitment to generate public data. The objective of the present analysis is to understand relationships between psychological responses in the early months of global coronavirus restrictions and help understand how different government measures succeed or fail in changing public behaviour. There were variations between and within countries. Although Western Europeans registered as more concerned over COVID-19, more stressed, and having slightly more trust in the governments' efforts, there was no clear geographical pattern in compliance with behavioural measures. Detailed plots illustrating between-countries differences are provided. Using both traditional and Bayesian analyses, we found that individuals who worried about getting sick worked harder to protect themselves and others. However, concern about the coronavirus itself did not account for all of the variances in experienced stress during the early months of COVID-19 restrictions. More alarmingly, such stress was associated with less compliance. Further, those most concerned over the coronavirus trusted in government measures primarily where policies were strict. While concern over a disease is a source of mental distress, other factors including strictness of protective measures, social support and personal lockdown conditions must also be taken into consideration to fully appreciate the psychological impact of COVID-19 and to understand why some people fail to follow behavioural guidelines intended to protect themselves and others from infection. The Stage 1 manuscript associated with this submission received in-principle acceptance (IPA) on 18 May 2020. Following IPA, the accepted Stage 1 version of the manuscript was preregistered on the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/ytbcs. This preregistration was performed prior to data analysis. Fil: Lieberoth, Andreas. University Aarhus; Dinamarca Fil: Lin, Shiang Yi. University of Hong Kong; China Fil: Stöckli, Sabrina. University of Bern; Suiza Fil: Han, Hyemin. University of Alabama at Birmingahm; Estados Unidos Fil: Kowal, Marta. Wroclaw University; Polonia Fil: Gelpi, Rebekah. University of Toronto; Canadá Fil: Chrona, Stavroula. King's College London; Reino Unido Fil: Tran, Thao Phuong. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Jeftić, Alma. International Christian University; Japón Fil: Rasmussen, Jesper. University Aarhus; Dinamarca Fil: Cakal, Huseyin. Keele University.; Reino Unido Fil: Milfont, Taciano L.. University of Waikato; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Reyna, Cecilia. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Psicológicas. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Psicológicas; Argentina Fil: The COVIDiSTRESS global survey consortium. No especifíca

Published
2021

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