Search

As we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are one of the most important tools in infectious disease control. To date, an unprecedentedly large volume of high-quality data on COVID-19 vaccinations have been accumulated. For preparedness in future pandemics beyond COVID-19, these valuable datasets should be analyzed to best shape an effective vaccination strategy. We are collecting longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, that consists of 2,407 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time courses of the vaccine-elicited antibody response based on mathematical modeling, we first identified basic demographic and health information that contributed to the main features of the antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We showed that these three features of antibody dynamics were partially explained by underlying medical conditions, adverse reactions to vaccinations, and medications, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit an "antibody score", which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used as a basis for identifying individuals with higher or lower antibody titers from basic demographic and health information. The score can be easily calculated by individuals themselves or by medical practitioners. Although the sensitivity of this score is currently not very high, in the future, as more data become available, it has the potential to identify vulnerable populations and encourage them to get booster vaccinations. Our mathematical model can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.

Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is caused by the persistence of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic anti-HBV agents, eliminating the cccDNA remains challenging. Thus, quantifying and understanding the dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. However, such study requires repeated liver biopsy to measure the intrahepatic cccDNA, which is basically not accepted because liver biopsy is potentially morbid and not common during hepatitis B treatment. We here aimed to develop a noninvasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations, integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we roughly predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA within a certain range using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The noninvasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed method holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.

The fabrication of ZnO nanoparticles (NPs) was monitored and studied in situ by controlling the plasma parameters of the direct current (DC) arc plasma system, such as the current density and chamber pressure. The optical emission signature of nitrogen was spectroscopically studied using optical emission spectroscopy (OES) techniques, and it showed a dependency on the nitrogen concentration in the ZnO nanoparticles in relation to the output of the ZnO NPs-based homojunction light-emitting diodes (LEDs). The synthesized NPs had a good crystalline quality and hexagonal wurtzite structure, and they were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The photoluminescence properties of the ZnO NPs and the optical and electrical parameters of the LEDs were also analyzed and correlated. The results indicate that the nitrogen dopants act as acceptors in the ZnO NPs and are favored in low plasma temperatures during fabrication. We anticipate that the results can provide an effective way to realize reliable nitrogen-doped p-type ZnO and tremendously encourage the development of low-dimensional ZnO homojunction LEDs.

In this study, the effect of defects on the acceptor properties of nitrogen-doped ZnO nanoparticles (NPs) was investigated through the fabrication of light-emitting diodes (LEDs). Nitrogen-doped ZnO NPs were synthesized by an arc discharge in-gas evaporation method and post-annealed at 800 °C in an oxygen and nitrogen atmosphere. The annealed ZnO NPs were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and photoluminescence spectroscopy. It was found that the annealing of nitrogen-doped ZnO NPs in a nitrogen environment increased the number of zinc vacancies, while annealing in an oxygen environment increased the number of oxygen vacancies due to nitrogen desorption. The output characteristics of LEDs fabricated with oxygen-annealed NPs were degraded, while those with nitrogen-annealed NPs were significantly improved. From these results, the contribution of zinc vacancies to acceptor formation in ZnO NPs was confirmed for the first time in actual pn junction devices.

Utilizing viral test results to determine isolation length would minimize both the risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients and the unnecessary individual burden of redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. Here, the authors develop a framework to compute the population-level risk of different isolation guidelines with rapid antigen tests.

Abstract Background Multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have hit most countries by the end of 2021. Most of those waves are caused by emergence and importation of new variants. To prevent importation of new variants, combination of border control and contact tracing is essential. However, the timing of infection inferred by interview is influenced by recall bias and hinders the contact tracing process. Methods We propose a novel approach to infer the timing of infection, by employing a within-host model to capture viral load dynamics after the onset of symptoms. We applied this approach to ascertain secondary transmission which can trigger outbreaks. As a demonstration, the 12 initial reported cases in Singapore, which were considered as imported because of their recent travel history to Wuhan, were analyzed to assess whether they are truly imported. Results Our approach suggested that 6 cases were infected prior to the arrival in Singapore, whereas other 6 cases might have been secondary local infection. Three among the 6 potential secondary transmission cases revealed that they had contact history to previously confirmed cases. Conclusions Contact trace combined with our approach using viral load data could be the key to mitigate the risk of importation of new variants by identifying cases as early as possible and inferring the timing of infection with high accuracy.

Mutations continue to accumulate within the SARS-CoV-2 genome, and the ongoing epidemic has shown no signs of ending. It is critical to predict problematic mutations that may arise in clinical environments and assess their properties in advance to quickly implement countermeasures against future variant infections. In this study, we identified mutations resistant to remdesivir, which is widely administered to SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, and discuss the cause of resistance. First, we simultaneously constructed eight recombinant viruses carrying the mutations detected in in vitro serial passages of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of remdesivir. We confirmed that all the mutant viruses didn't gain the virus production efficiency without remdesivir treatment. Time course analyses of cellular virus infections showed significantly higher infectious titers and infection rates in mutant viruses than wild type virus under treatment with remdesivir. Next, we developed a mathematical model in consideration of the changing dynamic of cells infected with mutant viruses with distinct propagation properties and defined that mutations detected in in vitro passages canceled the antiviral activities of remdesivir without raising virus production capacity. Finally, molecular dynamics simulations of the NSP12 protein of SARS-CoV-2 revealed that the molecular vibration around the RNA-binding site was increased by the introduction of mutations on NSP12. Taken together, we identified multiple mutations that affected the flexibility of the RNA binding site and decreased the antiviral activity of remdesivir. Our new insights will contribute to developing further antiviral measures against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BackgroundDevelopment of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials.Methods and findingsA modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d-1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d-1), 0.777 d-1 (0.716 to 0.838 d-1), and 0.450 d-1 (0.378 to 0.522 d-1) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, two mainstream guidelines for defining when to end the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals have been in use: the one-size-fits-all approach (i.e. patients are isolated for a fixed number of days) and the personalized approach (i.e. based on repeated testing of isolated patients). We use a mathematical framework to model within-host viral dynamics and test different criteria for ending isolation. By considering a fixed time of 10 days since symptom onset as the criterion for ending isolation, we estimated that the risk of releasing an individual who is still infectious is low (0–6.6%). However, this policy entails lengthy unnecessary isolations (4.8–8.3 days). In contrast, by using a personalized strategy, similar low risks can be reached with shorter prolonged isolations. The obtained findings provide a scientific rationale for policies on ending the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.

The incubation period, or the time from infection to symptom onset, of COVID-19 has usually been estimated by using data collected through interviews with cases and their contacts. However, this estimation is influenced by uncertainty in the cases’ recall of exposure time. We propose a novel method that uses viral load data collected over time since hospitalization, hindcasting the timing of infection with a mathematical model for viral dynamics. As an example, we used reported data on viral load for 30 hospitalized patients from multiple countries (Singapore, China, Germany, and Korea) and estimated the incubation period. The median, 2.5, and 97.5 percentiles of the incubation period were 5.85 days (95 % CI: 5.05, 6.77), 2.65 days (2.04, 3.41), and 12.99 days (9.98, 16.79), respectively, which are comparable to the values estimated in previous studies. Using viral load to estimate the incubation period might be a useful approach, especially when it is impractical to directly observe the infection event.

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2-3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

In this work, nitrogen-doped ZnO nanoparticles were synthesized in various conditions by the gas evaporation method with DC arc plasma. Nitrogen concentrations of 6.38 × 1018 cm−3 to 2.6 × 1019 cm−3 were obtained at a chamber pressure of 150 torr, using arc currents of 20 A to 70 A. The intensities of local vibrational modes at 275 cm−1 and 581 cm−1 in the Raman spectra of ZnO nanoparticles showed a dependency on the nitrogen concentration in the ZnO nanoparticles. The ratios of donor–acceptor pair and exciton emissions in the photoluminescence spectra of nitrogen-doped ZnO nanoparticles, and the electroluminescence of light-emitting diodes based on these nanoparticles, were nearly proportional to the Raman peak’s intensity at 275 cm−1. The results indicated that the nitrogen dopants in the ZnO nanoparticles were acting as an acceptor.