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Objectives: Tuberculosis (TB) presents a substantial danger to populations experiencing crises like earthquakes. This study aims to explore the effect of the Kermanshah earthquake on the trend of TB. Methods: This cross-sectional study examined tuberculosis data from 2009 to 2020, using monthly diagnoses. Data was collected from the TB research office and registration system. The study employed interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess both the immediate and long-term impacts of the earthquake on TB cases. Results: In Sarpol-e Zahab, TB cases initially surged after the earthquake, indicating an immediate effect, but then significantly declined compared to pre-earthquake levels, reflecting an effect over time (β0 = 1.39, β1=-0.004, β2 = 0.11 and β3=-0.01, P = 0.001 and Post-intervention linear trend= -0.015, P < 0.001). In Ghasr-e Shirin, the average number of TB cases prior to the earthquake was estimated at 0.58 cases, with a significant monthly decrease of 0.005 cases leading up to the earthquake (P = 0.001). There was no significant immediate change in TB cases during the first month after the earthquake (β2 = 0.008, P = 0.680). Post-earthquake, TB cases dramatically increased (β3 = 0.008, P = 0.001). The monthly trend of TB cases rose significantly by 0.002 (P = 0.001), indicating an effect over time. In Salas-e Babajani, there was no immediate change in TB cases, but there was a significant long-term decline compared to the period before the earthquake (P = 0.001). Conclusions: Earthquake is one of the natural crises that provide the conditions for the increase of TB. Local health policymakers must make plans in these areas to contain TB after the earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, and subsequent policy responses aimed at curbing disease spread and reducing economic fallout, had far-reaching consequences for maternal health. There has been little research to our knowledge on enduring disruptions to maternal health trends beyond the early pandemic and limited understanding of how these impacted pre-existing disparities in maternal health. Methods: We leveraged rigorous interrupted time-series methods and US National Center for Health Statistics Vital Statistics Birth Data Files of all live births for 2015-2021 (N = 24,653,848). We estimated whether changes in maternal health trends after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) differed from predictions based on pre-existing temporal trends. Outcomes included gestational diabetes, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational weight gain, and adequacy of prenatal care. Results: We found an increased incidence of gestational diabetes (December 2020 peak: 1.7 percentage points (pp); 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3, 2.1), hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (January 2021 peak: 1.3 pp; 95% CI: 0.4, 2.1), and gestational weight gain (March 2021 peak: 0.1 standard deviation; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.1) and declines in inadequate prenatal care (January 2021 nadir: -0.4 pp; 95% CI: -0.7, -0.1). Key differences by subgroups included greater and more sustained increases in gestational diabetes among Black, Hispanic, and less educated individuals. Conclusion: These patterns in maternal health likely reflect not only effects of COVID-19 infection but also changes in healthcare access, health behaviors, remote work, economic security, and maternal stress. Further research about causal pathways and longer-term trends will inform public health and clinical interventions to address maternal disease burden and disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The growth of parkrun between 2004 and 2019 has been heralded as a success story for public health as a result of its physical activity and wellbeing benefits for participants. However, parkrun was not immune from the COVID-19 pandemic - with events in mainland England cancelled from March 2020 to July 2021. This study explores the lasting impact of the pandemic on parkrun participation to February 2023, and its implications across the socioeconomic spectrum. Methods: The study combines aggregated parkrun weekly finisher data from 32,470 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) in England from January 2015 to February 2023 with Office of National Statistics (ONS) data on population and deprivation. Interrupted time series analysis using segmented Poisson regression models was used to estimate the immediate change in parkrun participation and the change in the rate of growth following the pandemic. Models were fitted for each Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile separately to assess whether this effect differed by socioeconomic deprivation. Results: Visualisation and interrupted time series analysis showed a significant and long-term decrease in parkrun participation following the reopening of parkrun events. This was consistent across all IMD quintiles, indicating that the inequalities in parkrun participation according to IMD observed prior to the pandemic remained after the pandemic. Between March 2020 and February 2023, almost 13 million fewer parkrun finishes are estimated to have occurred relative to what would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic. Conclusion: The reduction in parkrun participation during the pandemic and following the reopening of events is likely to have negatively impacted wellbeing in would-be participants. Going forwards, policymakers must make the difficult trade-off between the long-term health and social implications of restricting outdoor physical activity events against the benefits associated with a reduction in infectious disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multicountry study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among children ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. Methods Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000 to 2019, with 1 795 789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. Results No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among people aged ≥65 years in Chile. Discussion While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type–specific IPD cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite free immunisation services through the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP), around 14% of Indian households seek immunisation in the private sector. We examined the potential impact of rotavirus vaccine (RVV) introduction in the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) on private-sector rotavirus vaccine utilisation. Methods: We analysed nationally representative private-sector vaccine sales data. The intervention under consideration is RVV introduction in the UIP in selected Indian states. The outcome is the 'monthly RVV sales volume'—a proxy for vaccine utilisation. We performed a Poisson regression interrupted time series analysis to detect the pre-intervention trend, post-intervention level change and trend change relative to the pre-intervention for monthly rotavirus vaccine utilisation. Results: Poisson segmented regression analysis showed that immediately after RVV introduction in the UIP private-sector RVV sales showed a decline in Rajasthan by 37.4% (Incidence Risk Ratio (IRR): 0.626; 95% CI: 0.504–0.779), in Tamil Nadu by 26% (IRR: 0.740; 95% CI: 0.513–1.068), in Uttar Pradesh-East by 72.2% (IRR: 0.278; 95% CI: 0.178–0.436) and in Kerala by 3% (IRR: 0.970; 95% CI: 0.651–1.447). Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Kerala had sustained reduction in the postintervention trend relative to the preintervention trend by 20.1% (IRR: 0.799; 95% CI: 0.763–0.836), 6.4% (IRR: 0.936; 95% CI: 0.906–0.967) and 3.3% (IRR: 0.967; 95% CI: 0.926–0.960) per month, respectively. However, in Haryana and UP-west, in the first-month post-UIP introduction, the private-sector RVV sales increased by 101% and 3.8%, respectively which was followed by a sustained decrease of 14.2% (IRR: 0.858; 95% CI: 0.688–1.070) and 5.8% (IRR: 0.942; 95% CI: 0.926–0.960) per month, respectively. In terms of long-term impact, the private sector RVV sales post-UIP introduction decreased at a monthly rate of 4.4% (IRR: 0.956, 95% CI: 0.939–0.974) in Rajasthan but increased by 5.5% (IRR: 1.055; 95% CI: 1.040–1.070) in UP-east, 0.3% (IRR: 1.003, 95% CI: 0.976–1.031)) in Kerala and 0.2% (IRR: 1.002, 95% CI: 0.993–1.011) in Tamil Nadu whereas Haryana and UP-west had a reduction in RVV utilisation by 2.8% (IRR: 0.972; 95% CI: 0.955–0.990) and 1% (IRR: 0.990; 95% CI: 0.982–0.998), respectively. Conclusions: The study provides evidence that access to RVV through UIP leads to a reduction in private-sector RVV utilisation. We recommend strengthening UIP to expand the basket of new vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Daily, approximately 3,400 traffic-related deaths occur globally, with over 90% concentrated in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Notably, Rwanda has one of the highest road traffic death rates in the world (29.7 per 100,000 people) and is the first low-income country to implement a national Automated Speed Enforcement (ASE) policy. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of ASE cameras in reducing the primary outcome of road traffic deaths and secondary outcomes of serious injury crashes and fatal crashes. Methods: The study used data on road traffic deaths, and serious injury and fatal crashes collected by the Rwanda National Police between 2010 and 2022. Interrupted time series (ITS) models were fit to quantify the association between ASE and change in road traffic crash outcomes, adjusted for COVID-19-related variables (such as the start of the pandemic, the closure of schools and bars), along with exposure variables (such as GDP and population), and other concurrent road safety measures (such as road safety campaigns). Results: The ITS models show that the implementation of ASE cameras significantly reduced road traffic deaths, serious injury crashes, and fatal crashes at the provincial level. For instance, the implementation of ASE cameras in the whole of Rwanda in April 2021 was significantly associated with a 0.14 (95% CI [0.072, 0.212]) reduction in monthly death incidence, equating to a 38.16% monthly decrease compared to the period before their installation (January 2010-March 2021). Conclusion: This study emphasizes the significant association of ASE in Rwanda with improved road traffic crash outcomes, a result that may inform road safety policy in other LMICs. Rwanda has become the first low-income country to implement nationwide scaling of ASE in Africa, paving the way for the generation of valuable evidence on speed-related interventions. In addition to new knowledge generation, African road safety research efforts like this one are opportunities to grow academic and law enforcement cooperations while improving data systems and sources for future research benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To illustrate the interest in using interrupted time series (ITS) methods, this study evaluated the impact of the UK MHRA's March 2019 Risk Minimisation Measures (RMM) on fluoroquinolone usage. Methods: Monthly and quarterly fluoroquinolone use incidence rates from 2012 to 2022 were analysed across hospital care (Barts Health NHS Trust), primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum and CPRD GOLD), and linked records from both settings (East Scotland). Rates were stratified by age (19–59 and ≥ 60 years old). Seasonality‐adjusted segmented regression and ARIMA models were employed to model quarterly and monthly rates, respectively. Results: Post‐RMM, with segmented regression, both age groups in Barts Health experienced nearly complete reductions (> 99%); CPRD Aurum saw 20.19% (19–59) and 19.29% (≥$$ \ge $$ 60) reductions; no significant changes in CPRD GOLD; East Scotland had 45.43% (19–59) and 41.47% (≥$$ \ge $$ 60) decreases. Slope analysis indicated increases for East Scotland (19–59) and both CPRD Aurum groups, but a decrease for CPRD GOLD's ≥$$ \ge $$ 60; ARIMA detected significant step changes in CPRD GOLD not identified by segmented regression and noted a significant slope increase in Barts Health's 19–59 group. Both models showed no post‐modelling autocorrelations across databases, yet Barts Health's residuals were non‐normally distributed with non‐constant variance. Conclusions: Both segmented regression and ARIMA confirmed the reduction of fluoroquinolones use after RMM across four different UK primary care and hospital databases. Model diagnostics showed good performance in eliminating residual autocorrelation for both methods. However, diagnostics for hospital databases with low incident use revealed the presence of heteroscedasticity and non‐normal white noise using both methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite major primary health care (PHC) reforms in China with the 2009 launch of the National Essential Public Health Service Package, the country experiences many challenges in improving the management of non-communicable diseases in PHC facilities. "EMERALD" is a multifaceted implementation strategy to strengthen the management of hypertension and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in PHC facilities. The study aims to: (1) examine the effectiveness of EMERALD in improving hypertension and T2DM management; (2) evaluate the implementation of the interventions; and (3) use the study findings to model the long-term health economic impact of the interventions. Methods: The EMERALD intervention components include: (1) empowerment for PHC providers through training and capacity building; (2) empowerment for patient communities through multi-media health education; and (3) empowerment for local health administrators through health data monitoring and strengthening governance of local PHC programs. An interrupted time series design will be used to determine the effectiveness of the interventions based on routinely collected health data extracted from local health information systems. The primary effectiveness outcome is the guideline-recommended treatment rates for people with hypertension and T2DM. Secondary effectiveness outcomes include hypertension and T2DM diagnosis and control rates, and enrolment and adherence rates to the recommended care processes in the National Essential Public Health Service Package. A mixed-methods process evaluation will be conducted to evaluate the implementation of the interventions, including the reach of the target population, adequacy of adoption, level of implementation fidelity, and maintenance. Qualitative interviews with policy makers, health administrators, PHC providers, and patients with hypertension and/or T2DM will be conducted to further identify factors influencing the implementation. In addition, health economic modelling will be performed to explore the long-term incremental costs and benefits of the interventions. Discussion: This study is expected to generate important evidence on the effectiveness, implementation, and health economic impact of complex PHC interventions to strengthen the primary care sector's contribution to addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in China. Trial registration: The study has been registered on Chinese Clinical Trial Registry at https://www.chictr.org.cn/ (Registration number ChiCTR2400082036, on March 19th 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim Design Methods Results Conclusion Implications for the Profession and/or Patient Care Impact Patient or Public Contribution To determine whether the I‐DECIDED assessment and decision tool enhances peripheral intravenous catheter assessment, care and decision‐making in paediatrics.Quasi‐experimental, interrupted time‐series study.An interrupted time‐series study was conducted in a paediatric inpatient unit at a public teaching hospital in Brazil. The participants were patients aged less than 15 years old with a peripheral intravenous catheter, and their parents or guardians. Data were collected between January and July 2023, encompassing six time points, three pre‐intervention and three post‐intervention. Evaluation data were based on the I‐DECIDED tool, including idle devices, dressings, complications, patient/family awareness, hand hygiene, disinfection and documentation.We conducted 585 peripheral intravenous catheter observations, with 289 in the pre‐intervention phase and 296 in the post‐intervention phase, inserted in 65 hospitalised children, 30 in the pre‐intervention phase and 35 in the post‐intervention phase. After the intervention, reductions were observed in the number of idle catheters, substandard dressings and complications. Patients and family members reported an increase in device assessment, hand hygiene and peripheral intravenous catheter disinfection. Additionally, there was an increase in documentation of decision‐making performed by nurses and nursing technicians/assistants.Implementation of the I‐DECIDED assessment and decision tool in a paediatric unit significantly improved the assessment, care and decision‐making regarding peripheral intravenous catheters.Opportunity to enhance practice standards, elevate the quality of care provided to paediatric patients, contribute to improved patient outcomes, advance evidence‐based practice in vascular access management and enhance patient experience through increased involvement in care.To influence clinical practice and healthcare policies aimed at improving peripheral intravenous catheter care and patient safety in paediatric settings.No patient or public contribution to the design of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about the trends in morbidity and mortality at the population level that followed the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators for COPD. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the availability of new bronchodilators was associated with changes in the temporal trends in severe COPD exacerbations and mortality between 2007 and 2018 in the older population with COPD; and whether this association was homogeneous across sex and socioeconomic status classes. Methods: We used an interrupted time-series and three segments multivariate autoregressive models to evaluate the adjusted changes in slopes (i.e., trend effect) in monthly severe exacerbation and mortality rates after 03/2013 and 02/2015 compared to the tiotropium period (04/2007 to 02/2013). Cohorts of individuals > 65 years with COPD were created from the nationally representative database of the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System in the province of Quebec, Canada. Whether these trends were similar for men and women and across different socioeconomic status classes was also assessed. Results: There were 130,750 hospitalizations for severe exacerbation and 104,460 deaths, including 24,457 (23.4%) respiratory-related deaths, over the study period (928,934 person-years). Significant changes in trends were seen after 03/2013 for all-cause mortality (-1.14%/month;95%CI -1.90% to -0.38%), which further decreased after 02/2015 (-1.78%/month;95%CI -2.70% to -0.38%). Decreases in respiratory-related mortality (-2.45%/month;95%CI -4.38% to -0.47%) and severe exacerbation (-1,90%/month;95%CI -3.04% to -0.75%) rates were only observed after 02/2015. These observations tended to be more pronounced in women than in men and in higher socioeconomic status groups (less deprived) than in lower socioeconomic status groups (more deprived). Conclusions: The arrival of newer bronchodilators was chronologically associated with reduced trends in severe exacerbation, all-cause and respiratory-related mortality rates among people with COPD > 65 years. Our findings document population benefits on key patient-relevant outcomes in the years following the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators and their combinations, which were likely multifactorial. Public health efforts should focus on closing the gap between lower and higher socioeconomic status groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Key populations (KP), including men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and transgender women (TGW), experience a disproportionate burden of HIV, even in generalized epidemics like South Africa. Given this disproportionate burden and unique barriers to accessing health services, sustained provision of care is particularly relevant. It is unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions may have impacted this delivery. In this study, we aimed to describe patterns of engagement in HIV prevention and treatment services among KP in South Africa and assess the impact of different COVID-19 restriction levels on service delivery. Methods: We leveraged programmatic data collected by the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported KP partners in South Africa. We divided data into three discrete time periods based on national COVID-19 restriction periods: (i) Pre-restriction period, (ii) High-level restriction period, and (iii) After-high level restriction period. Primary outcomes included monthly total HIV tests, new HIV cases identified, new initiations of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and new enrollments in antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted interrupted time series segmented regression analyses to estimate the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on HIV prevention and treatment service utilization. Results: Between January 2018 and June 2022, there were a total of 231,086 HIV tests, 27,051 HIV positive cases, 27,656 pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) initiations, and 15,949 antiretroviral therapy initiations among MSM, FSW and TGW in PEPFAR-supported KP programs in South Africa. We recorded 90,457 total HIV tests during the 'pre-restriction' period, with 13,593 confirmed new HIV diagnoses; 26,134 total HIV tests with 2,771 new diagnoses during the 'high-level restriction' period; and 114,495 HIV tests with 10,687 new diagnoses during the after high-level restriction period. Our Poisson regression model estimates indicate an immediate and significant decrease in service engagement at the onset of COVID-19 restrictions, including declines in HIV testing, treatment, and PrEP use, which persisted. As programs adjusted to the new restrictions, there was a gradual rebound in service engagement, particularly among MSM and FSW. Towards the end of the high-level restriction period, with some aspects of daily life returning to normal but others still restricted, there was more variability. Some indicators continued to improve, while others stagnated or decreased. Conclusion: Service provision rebounded from the initial shock created by pandemic-related restrictions, and HIV services were largely maintained for KP in South Africa. These results suggest that HIV service delivery among programs designed for KP was able to be flexible and resilient to the evolving restrictions. The results of this study can inform plans for future pandemics and large-scale disruptions to the delivery of HIV services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antipsychotics carry a higher-risk profile than other psychotropic medications and may be prescribed for youth with conditions in which other first-line treatments are more appropriate. This study aimed to evaluate the population-level effect of the Safer Use of Antipsychotics in Youth (SUAY) trial, which aimed to reduce person-days of antipsychotic use among participants. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression to measure changes in prescribing trends of antipsychotic initiation rates pre-SUAY and post-SUAY trial at four U.S. health systems between 2013 and 2020. Results: In our overall model, adjusted for age and insurance type, antipsychotic initiation rates decreased by 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30, 1.16, p = 0.002) prescriptions per 10,000 person-months before the SUAY trial. In the first quarter following the start of the trial, there was an immediate decrease in the rate of antipsychotic initiations of 6.57 (95% CI: 0.99, 12.15) prescriptions per 10,000 person-months. When comparing the posttrial period to the pretrial period, there was an increase of 1.09 (95% CI: 0.32, 1.85) prescriptions per 10,000 person-months, but the increasing rate in the posttrial period alone was not statistically significant (0.36 prescriptions per 10,000 person-months, 95% CI: −0.27, 0.99). Conclusion: The declining trend of antipsychotic initiation seen between 2013 and 2018 (pre-SUAY trial) may have naturally reached a level at which prescribing was clinically warranted and appropriate, resulting in a floor effect. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in the final three quarters of the posttrial period, may also be related to increased antipsychotic medication initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Evidence is limited on differences in cesarean rates for nulliparous, term, singleton, vertex (NTSV) births across racial and ethnic groups at the national and state level during the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed changes in levels and trends of NTSV cesarean rates before and after stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) were implemented in the United States (1) overall, (2) by racial and ethnic groups, and (3) by 50 US states from January 2017 through December 2021. Methods: We used birth certificate data from 2017 through 2021, restricted to hospital births, to calculate monthly NTSV cesarean rates for the United States and for racial and ethnic groups and to calculate quarterly NTSV cesarean rates for the 50 states. We used interrupted time-series analysis to measure changes in NTSV cesarean rates before and after implementation of SAHOs (March 1 through May 31, 2020). Results: Of 6 022 552 NTSV hospital births, 1 579 645 (26.2%) were cesarean births. Before implementation of SAHOs, NTSV cesarean rates were declining in the United States overall; were declining among births to non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White women; and were declining in 6 states. During the first month of implementation of SAHOs in May 2020, monthly NTSV rates increased in the United States by 0.55%. Monthly NTSV rates increased by 1.20% among non-Hispanic Black women, 0.90% among Hispanic women, and 0.28% among non-Hispanic White women; quarterly NTSV rates increased in 6 states. Conclusion: In addition to emergency preparedness planning, hospital monitoring, and reporting of NTSV cesarean rates to increase provider awareness, reallocation and prioritization of resources may help to identify potential strains on health care systems during public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aimed to evaluate the impact of health care vaccine mandates on vaccine uptake and infection risk in a cohort of Canadian health care workers (HCWs). We conduct interrupted time series analysis through a regression discontinuity in time approach to estimate the immediate and delayed impact of the mandate. Multilevel mixed effect modeling fitted with restricted maximum likelihood was used to estimate impact on infection risk. The immediate and sustained effects of the mandate was a 0.19% (P <.05) and a 0.012% (P <.05) increase in the daily proportion of unvaccinated HCWs getting their first dose, respectively. An additional 623 (95% confidence interval: 613-667) HCWs received first doses compared to the predicted uptake absent the mandate. Adjusted test positivity declined by 0.053% (95% confidence interval: 0.035%, 0.069) for every additional day the mandate was in effect. Our results indicate that the mandate was associated with significant increases in vaccine uptake and infection risk reduction in the cohort. Given the benefit that vaccination could bring to HCWs, understanding strategies to enhance uptake is crucial for bolstering health system resilience, but steps must be taken to avert approaches that sacrifice trust, foster animosity, or exacerbate staffing constraints for short-term results. • The mandate was effective in increasing vaccine uptake healthcare workers (HCWS). • Effectiveness was also shown for lowering infection risk. • Impact was greater in subgroups of HCWs including those who work in long-term care. • Context and epidemiology should be considered when utilizing vaccine mandates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The randomized control trial (RCT) is the primary experimental design in education research due to its strong internal validity for causal inference. However, in situations where RCTs are not feasible or ethical, quasi-experiments are alternatives to establish causal inference. This paper serves as an introduction to several quasi-experimental designs: regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences analysis, interrupted time series design, instrumental variable analysis, and propensity score analysis with examples in education research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control measures presented impediments for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programming in Uganda. Nationwide control measures implemented April—June 2020 included a public transport ban and mandatory travel permits for pregnant women to access clinics. Program adaptations instituted for continuity of services included community drug delivery and home-based DNA-PCR testing for HIV-exposed infants (HEI). We examined the effect of COVID-19 control measures and program adaptations on PMTCT service uptake in central Uganda. Methods We analysed data for pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) and HEI receiving PMTCT services in eight districts in central Uganda. We abstracted data from medical records at 96 public clinics for six months pre-lockdown (October 2019–March 2020), three months of lockdown (April–June 2020), and six months post-lockdown (July–December 2020). We measured monthly antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill attendance, health facility deliveries, and timely DNA-PCR testing of HEI for HIV (within two months of birth). We conducted segmented ordinary least squares regression of interrupted time series and adjusted for month-to-month changes using Cumby-Huizinga test. We reported results using coefficients and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results At the start of pre-lockdown (October 2019), there were 448 deliveries, 2,676 ART refills and 556 timely HEI tests. The pre-lockdown trend for ART refills increased while deliveries and HEI tests declined. At the start of lockdown (April 2020), all indicators declined, although significantly for facility deliveries (-60; 95% CI: -102, -18). Lockdown monthly trends were positive with 68 more HEI tested per month (95% CI:42, 93) and 51 more deliveries (95% CI: 9, 94) but insignificantly negative for ART refills. At start of post-lockdown (July 2020), HEI testing declined (-28; 95%CI: -48, -8). Post-lockdown HEI testing trend was negative with 70 fewer HEI tested per month (95%CI: -79, -62) while no difference in trend for deliveries and ART refills. Conclusion COVID-19 control measures had a significant immediate negative impact on pregnancy deliveries at health facilities. During lockdown, all service rates rapidly recovered through program adaptations, significantly for HEI testing and deliveries. Maintaining these adaptations might help restore the positive trend in timely HIV testing for HEI.

Abstract Objectives Tuberculosis (TB) presents a substantial danger to populations experiencing crises like earthquakes. This study aims to explore the effect of the Kermanshah earthquake on the trend of TB. Methods This cross-sectional study examined tuberculosis data from 2009 to 2020, using monthly diagnoses. Data was collected from the TB research office and registration system. The study employed interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess both the immediate and long-term impacts of the earthquake on TB cases. Results In Sarpol-e Zahab, TB cases initially surged after the earthquake, indicating an immediate effect, but then significantly declined compared to pre-earthquake levels, reflecting an effect over time (β0 = 1.39, β1=-0.004, β2 = 0.11 and β3=-0.01, P = 0.001 and Post-intervention linear trend= -0.015, P

Abstract Background The growth of parkrun between 2004 and 2019 has been heralded as a success story for public health as a result of its physical activity and wellbeing benefits for participants. However, parkrun was not immune from the COVID-19 pandemic - with events in mainland England cancelled from March 2020 to July 2021. This study explores the lasting impact of the pandemic on parkrun participation to February 2023, and its implications across the socioeconomic spectrum. Methods The study combines aggregated parkrun weekly finisher data from 32,470 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) in England from January 2015 to February 2023 with Office of National Statistics (ONS) data on population and deprivation. Interrupted time series analysis using segmented Poisson regression models was used to estimate the immediate change in parkrun participation and the change in the rate of growth following the pandemic. Models were fitted for each Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile separately to assess whether this effect differed by socioeconomic deprivation. Results Visualisation and interrupted time series analysis showed a significant and long-term decrease in parkrun participation following the reopening of parkrun events. This was consistent across all IMD quintiles, indicating that the inequalities in parkrun participation according to IMD observed prior to the pandemic remained after the pandemic. Between March 2020 and February 2023, almost 13 million fewer parkrun finishes are estimated to have occurred relative to what would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic. Conclusion The reduction in parkrun participation during the pandemic and following the reopening of events is likely to have negatively impacted wellbeing in would-be participants. Going forwards, policymakers must make the difficult trade-off between the long-term health and social implications of restricting outdoor physical activity events against the benefits associated with a reduction in infectious disease transmission.

Abstract Background Despite free immunisation services through the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP), around 14% of Indian households seek immunisation in the private sector. We examined the potential impact of rotavirus vaccine (RVV) introduction in the Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) on private-sector rotavirus vaccine utilisation. Methods We analysed nationally representative private-sector vaccine sales data. The intervention under consideration is RVV introduction in the UIP in selected Indian states. The outcome is the ‘monthly RVV sales volume’—a proxy for vaccine utilisation. We performed a Poisson regression interrupted time series analysis to detect the pre-intervention trend, post-intervention level change and trend change relative to the pre-intervention for monthly rotavirus vaccine utilisation. Results Poisson segmented regression analysis showed that immediately after RVV introduction in the UIP private-sector RVV sales showed a decline in Rajasthan by 37.4% (Incidence Risk Ratio (IRR): 0.626; 95% CI: 0.504–0.779), in Tamil Nadu by 26% (IRR: 0.740; 95% CI: 0.513–1.068), in Uttar Pradesh-East by 72.2% (IRR: 0.278; 95% CI: 0.178–0.436) and in Kerala by 3% (IRR: 0.970; 95% CI: 0.651–1.447). Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Kerala had sustained reduction in the postintervention trend relative to the preintervention trend by 20.1% (IRR: 0.799; 95% CI: 0.763–0.836), 6.4% (IRR: 0.936; 95% CI: 0.906–0.967) and 3.3% (IRR: 0.967; 95% CI: 0.926–0.960) per month, respectively. However, in Haryana and UP-west, in the first-month post-UIP introduction, the private-sector RVV sales increased by 101% and 3.8%, respectively which was followed by a sustained decrease of 14.2% (IRR: 0.858; 95% CI: 0.688–1.070) and 5.8% (IRR: 0.942; 95% CI: 0.926–0.960) per month, respectively. In terms of long-term impact, the private sector RVV sales post-UIP introduction decreased at a monthly rate of 4.4% (IRR: 0.956, 95% CI: 0.939–0.974) in Rajasthan but increased by 5.5% (IRR: 1.055; 95% CI: 1.040–1.070) in UP-east, 0.3% (IRR: 1.003, 95% CI: 0.976–1.031)) in Kerala and 0.2% (IRR: 1.002, 95% CI: 0.993–1.011) in Tamil Nadu whereas Haryana and UP-west had a reduction in RVV utilisation by 2.8% (IRR: 0.972; 95% CI: 0.955–0.990) and 1% (IRR: 0.990; 95% CI: 0.982–0.998), respectively. Conclusions The study provides evidence that access to RVV through UIP leads to a reduction in private-sector RVV utilisation. We recommend strengthening UIP to expand the basket of new vaccines.

Abstract Background Despite major primary health care (PHC) reforms in China with the 2009 launch of the National Essential Public Health Service Package, the country experiences many challenges in improving the management of non-communicable diseases in PHC facilities. “EMERALD” is a multifaceted implementation strategy to strengthen the management of hypertension and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in PHC facilities. The study aims to: (1) examine the effectiveness of EMERALD in improving hypertension and T2DM management; (2) evaluate the implementation of the interventions; and (3) use the study findings to model the long-term health economic impact of the interventions. Methods The EMERALD intervention components include: (1) empowerment for PHC providers through training and capacity building; (2) empowerment for patient communities through multi-media health education; and (3) empowerment for local health administrators through health data monitoring and strengthening governance of local PHC programs. An interrupted time series design will be used to determine the effectiveness of the interventions based on routinely collected health data extracted from local health information systems. The primary effectiveness outcome is the guideline-recommended treatment rates for people with hypertension and T2DM. Secondary effectiveness outcomes include hypertension and T2DM diagnosis and control rates, and enrolment and adherence rates to the recommended care processes in the National Essential Public Health Service Package. A mixed-methods process evaluation will be conducted to evaluate the implementation of the interventions, including the reach of the target population, adequacy of adoption, level of implementation fidelity, and maintenance. Qualitative interviews with policy makers, health administrators, PHC providers, and patients with hypertension and/or T2DM will be conducted to further identify factors influencing the implementation. In addition, health economic modelling will be performed to explore the long-term incremental costs and benefits of the interventions. Discussion This study is expected to generate important evidence on the effectiveness, implementation, and health economic impact of complex PHC interventions to strengthen the primary care sector’s contribution to addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in China. Trial registration The study has been registered on Chinese Clinical Trial Registry at https://www.chictr.org.cn/ (Registration number ChiCTR2400082036, on March 19th 2024).

Abstract Background Little is known about the trends in morbidity and mortality at the population level that followed the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators for COPD. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the availability of new bronchodilators was associated with changes in the temporal trends in severe COPD exacerbations and mortality between 2007 and 2018 in the older population with COPD; and whether this association was homogeneous across sex and socioeconomic status classes. Methods We used an interrupted time-series and three segments multivariate autoregressive models to evaluate the adjusted changes in slopes (i.e., trend effect) in monthly severe exacerbation and mortality rates after 03/2013 and 02/2015 compared to the tiotropium period (04/2007 to 02/2013). Cohorts of individuals > 65 years with COPD were created from the nationally representative database of the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System in the province of Quebec, Canada. Whether these trends were similar for men and women and across different socioeconomic status classes was also assessed. Results There were 130,750 hospitalizations for severe exacerbation and 104,460 deaths, including 24,457 (23.4%) respiratory-related deaths, over the study period (928,934 person-years). Significant changes in trends were seen after 03/2013 for all-cause mortality (-1.14%/month;95%CI -1.90% to -0.38%), which further decreased after 02/2015 (-1.78%/month;95%CI -2.70% to -0.38%). Decreases in respiratory-related mortality (-2.45%/month;95%CI -4.38% to -0.47%) and severe exacerbation (-1,90%/month;95%CI -3.04% to -0.75%) rates were only observed after 02/2015. These observations tended to be more pronounced in women than in men and in higher socioeconomic status groups (less deprived) than in lower socioeconomic status groups (more deprived). Conclusions The arrival of newer bronchodilators was chronologically associated with reduced trends in severe exacerbation, all-cause and respiratory-related mortality rates among people with COPD > 65 years. Our findings document population benefits on key patient-relevant outcomes in the years following the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators and their combinations, which were likely multifactorial. Public health efforts should focus on closing the gap between lower and higher socioeconomic status groups.

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) mortality in Chile is among the highest worldwide. In 2006, the Chilean government launched a programme guaranteeing access to gallbladder surgery (cholecystectomy) for patients aged 35–49 years. We evaluated the impact of this programme on digestive cancer mortality. After conducting an interrupted time series analysis of hospitalisation and mortality data from 2002 to 2018 publicly available from the Chilean Department of Health Statistics and Information, we calculated the change in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder since 10 years. We then estimated age, gender, region, and calendar‐year standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) as a function of the change in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder. The cholecystectomy rate increased by 45 operations per 100,000 persons per year (95%CI 19–72) after the introduction of the health programme. Each 1% increase in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder since 10 years was associated with a 0.73% decrease in GBC mortality (95% CI −1.05% to −0.38%), but the negative correlation was limited to women, southern Chile and age over 60. We also found decreasing mortality rates for extrahepatic bile duct, liver, oesophageal and stomach cancer with increasing proportions of individuals without gallbladder. To conclude, 12 years after its inception, the Chilean cholecystectomy programme has markedly and heterogeneously changed cholecystectomy rates. Results based on aggregate data indicate a negative correlation between the proportion of individuals without gallbladder and mortality due to gallbladder and other digestive cancers, which requires validation using individual‐level longitudinal data to reduce the potential impact of ecological bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research on the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on mothers/childbearing parents has mainly been cross‐sectional and focused on psychological symptoms. This study examined the impact on function using ongoing, systematic screening of a representative Ontario sample. Methods: An interrupted time series analysis of repeated cross‐sectional data from a province‐wide screening program using the Healthy Babies Healthy Children (HBHC) tool assessed changes associated with the pandemic at the time of postpartum discharge from hospital. Postal codes were used to link to neighborhood‐level data. The ability to parent or care for the baby/child and other psychosocial and behavioral outcomes were assessed. Results: The co‐primary outcomes of inability to parent or care for the baby/child were infrequently observed in the pre‐pandemic (March 9, 2019–March 15, 2020) and initial pandemic periods (March 16, 2020–March 23, 2021) (parent 209/63,006 (0.33%)–177/56,117 (0.32%), care 537/62,955 (0.85%)–324/56,086 (0.58%)). Changes after pandemic onset were not observed for either outcome although a significant (p = 0.02) increase in slope was observed for inability to parent (with questionable clinical significance). For secondary outcomes, worsening was only seen for reported complications during labor/delivery. Significant improvements were observed in the likelihood of being unable to identify a support person to assist with care, need of newcomer support, and concerns about money over time. Conclusions: There were no substantive changes in concerns about ability to parent or care for children. Adverse impacts of the pandemic may have been mitigated by accommodations for remote work and social safety net policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The Swedish Primary Health Care (PHC) system has, like in other European countries, undergone a gradual transition towards marketization and privatization, most distinctly through a 2010 choice reform. The reform led to an overall but regionally heterogenous expansion of private PHC providers in Sweden, and with evidence also pointing to possible inequities in various aspects of PHC provision. Evidence on the reform’s impact on population-level primary health care performance and equity in performance remains scarce. The present study therefore aimed to examine whether the increase in private provision after the reform impacted on population-average rates of avoidable hospitalizations, as well as on corresponding socioeconomic inequities. Methods This register-based study used a multiple-group interrupted time-series design for the study period 2001–2017, with the study population (N = 51 million observations) randomly drawn from the total Swedish population aged 18–85 years. High, medium, and low implementing comparison groups were classified by tertiles of increase in private PHC providers after the reform. PHC performance was measured by avoidable hospitalizations, and socioeconomic position by education and income. Interrupted time series analysis based on individual-level data was used to estimate the reform impact on avoidable hospitalization risk, and on inequities through the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results All three comparisons groups displayed decreasing risk of avoidable hospitalizations but increasing socioeconomic inequities across the study period. Compared to regions with little change in provision after the reform, regions with large increase in private provision saw a steeper decrease in avoidable hospitalizations after the reform (relative risk (95%): 1.6% (1.1; 2.1)), but at the same time steeper increase in inequities (by education: 2.0% (0.1%; 4.0); by income: 2.2% (-0.1; 4.3)). Conclusions The study suggests that the increase in private health care centers, enabled by the choice reform, contributed to a small improvement when it comes to overall PHC performance, but simultaneously to increased socioeconomic inequities in PHC performance. This duality in the impact of the Swedish reform also reflects the arguments in the European health policy debate on patient choice PHC models, with hopes of improved performance but fears of increased inequities.

Abstract Background Postpartum depression (PPD) has received widespread attention. Shenzhen has been running a large-scale program for PPD since 2013. The program requires mothers to self-assess when applying information technology to PPD screening beginning in 2021. The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal analysis of the impact of mHealth apps on the health-seeking behaviors of PPD patients. Methods Longitudinal data from districts in the Shenzhen Maternal and Child Health Management Information System (MCHMIS) for ten years was used in this study. Referral success rate (RSR, successful referrals to designated hospitals as a percentage of needed referrals) was used to assess health-seeking behavior. Trend χ2 tests were used to assess the overall trend of change after the implementation of mHealth in ten districts in Shenzhen. Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) was employed to assess the role of the mHealth app in changing patient health-seeking behaviors. Results For the results of the trend χ2 tests, the ten districts of Shenzhen showed an upward trend. For the ITSA results, different results were shown between districts. Nanshan district, Longhua district, and Longgang district all demonstrated an upward trend in the first-year application of the mHealth app. Nanshan district and Longgang district both exhibited an upward trend in terms of sustained effects. Conclusions There is a difference in the performance of the mHealth app across the ten districts. The results show that the three districts with better health resource allocation, Nanshan, Longgang, and Longhua districts, demonstrated more significant mHealth app improvements. The mHealth app’s functions, management systems, and health resource allocation may be potential factors in the results. This suggests that when leveraging mHealth applications, the first step is to focus on macro-level area resource allocation measures. Secondly, there should be effective process design and strict regulatory measures. Finally, there should also be appropriate means of publicity.

Abstract Background The emergence of COVID-19 precipitated containment policies (e.g., lockdowns, school closures, etc.). These policies disrupted healthcare, potentially eroding gains for Sustainable Development Goals including for neonatal mortality. Our analysis aimed to evaluate indirect effects of COVID-19 containment policies on neonatal admissions and mortality in 67 neonatal units across Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania between January 2019 and December 2021. Methods The Oxford Stringency Index was applied to quantify COVID-19 policy stringency over time for Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Stringency increased markedly between March and April 2020 for these four countries (although less so in Tanzania), therefore defining the point of interruption. We used March as the primary interruption month, with April for sensitivity analysis. Additional sensitivity analysis excluded data for March and April 2020, modelled the index as a continuous exposure, and examined models for each country. To evaluate changes in neonatal admissions and mortality based on this interruption period, a mixed effects segmented regression was applied. The unit of analysis was the neonatal unit (n = 67), with a total of 266,741 neonatal admissions (January 2019 to December 2021). Results Admission to neonatal units decreased by 15% overall from February to March 2020, with half of the 67 neonatal units showing a decline in admissions. Of the 34 neonatal units with a decline in admissions, 19 (28%) had a significant decrease of ≥ 20%. The month-to-month decrease in admissions was approximately 2% on average from March 2020 to December 2021. Despite the decline in admissions, we found no significant changes in overall inpatient neonatal mortality. The three sensitivity analyses provided consistent findings. Conclusion COVID-19 containment measures had an impact on neonatal admissions, but no significant change in overall inpatient neonatal mortality was detected. Additional qualitative research in these facilities has explored possible reasons. Strengthening healthcare systems to endure unexpected events, such as pandemics, is critical in continuing progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals, including reducing neonatal deaths to less than 12 per 1000 live births by 2030.

The main goal of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on road crashes in Thailand using time series and interrupted time series analysis. To achieve the goal, road crash data from the Department of Highway (DOH), which includes total crashes, single vehicle crashes, fatalities, fatal crashes, speeding crashes, and drunk driving crashes, was obtained to conduct Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series models and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models. SARIMA models were applied to forecast the number of crashes in the absence of COVID-19 then compare them to the observed values to identify the difference. The impact of a policy change aimed at addressing the spread of COVID-19 was assessed using ITS models on a time series accident dataset. The goal was to ascertain if the intervention had a meaningful and causative impact on the outcome. The result showed that the first wave of COVID-19 caused a significant reduction in all road crash indicators instead of skyrocketing to a peak. After releasing the lockdown measures from the first wave of spreading, an increase was found in all of the crash indicators as well. However, the third wave of COVID-19, which lasted longest for nearly 7 months, also caused a decrease in the number of crashes, but not as much as the first wave of the outbreak. Moreover, the result from the interrupted time series also revealed that curfews and the closure of entertainment places are associated with a significant decrease in the number of speeding crashes and drunk driving crashes from 10 p.m. to 4 a.m., respectively. It can be observed that the COVID-19 countermeasures, such as curfews and bans on the sales of alcoholic beverages, led to a drop in the number of speeding and drunk driving crashes.

Introduction Methods Results Discussion and Conclusions On 1 January 2020, Vietnam introduced a new law with harsher fines and penalties for driving under the influence of alcohol. Reports of empty beer restaurants following this implementation suggested the new law has the potential to reduce population‐level alcohol consumption. This pilot study aims to quantify short‐term changes in alcohol consumption levels after the implementation of the new law and assess whether it could lead to a reduction in total alcohol consumption in the population.Wastewater samples were collected from two sites along a sewage canal in Hanoi during two periods: Period 1 (15 December 2018 to 14 January 2019) and Period 2 (15 December 2019 to 14 January 2020). Ethyl sulfate, a specific metabolite of alcohol, was quantified to monitor the trend of alcohol consumption. Both interrupted time series and controlled interrupted time series approaches were utilised, with Period 1 and Period 2 serving as the control and intervention periods, respectively.Our analysis indicated that the implementation of the new law did not result in an immediate and significant reduction in alcohol consumption at the population level. Meanwhile, there was no significant difference in alcohol consumption between weekdays and weekends both before and after the implementation of the new law.Long‐term monitoring is needed to assess the impact of stricter DUI policy on alcohol consumption in the urban areas of Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Swedish Primary Health Care (PHC) system has, like in other European countries, undergone a gradual transition towards marketization and privatization, most distinctly through a 2010 choice reform. The reform led to an overall but regionally heterogenous expansion of private PHC providers in Sweden, and with evidence also pointing to possible inequities in various aspects of PHC provision. Evidence on the reform's impact on population-level primary health care performance and equity in performance remains scarce. The present study therefore aimed to examine whether the increase in private provision after the reform impacted on population-average rates of avoidable hospitalizations, as well as on corresponding socioeconomic inequities. Methods: This register-based study used a multiple-group interrupted time-series design for the study period 2001–2017, with the study population (N = 51 million observations) randomly drawn from the total Swedish population aged 18–85 years. High, medium, and low implementing comparison groups were classified by tertiles of increase in private PHC providers after the reform. PHC performance was measured by avoidable hospitalizations, and socioeconomic position by education and income. Interrupted time series analysis based on individual-level data was used to estimate the reform impact on avoidable hospitalization risk, and on inequities through the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results: All three comparisons groups displayed decreasing risk of avoidable hospitalizations but increasing socioeconomic inequities across the study period. Compared to regions with little change in provision after the reform, regions with large increase in private provision saw a steeper decrease in avoidable hospitalizations after the reform (relative risk (95%): 1.6% (1.1; 2.1)), but at the same time steeper increase in inequities (by education: 2.0% (0.1%; 4.0); by income: 2.2% (-0.1; 4.3)). Conclusions: The study suggests that the increase in private health care centers, enabled by the choice reform, contributed to a small improvement when it comes to overall PHC performance, but simultaneously to increased socioeconomic inequities in PHC performance. This duality in the impact of the Swedish reform also reflects the arguments in the European health policy debate on patient choice PHC models, with hopes of improved performance but fears of increased inequities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postpartum depression (PPD) has received widespread attention. Shenzhen has been running a large-scale program for PPD since 2013. The program requires mothers to self-assess when applying information technology to PPD screening beginning in 2021. The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal analysis of the impact of mHealth apps on the health-seeking behaviors of PPD patients. Methods: Longitudinal data from districts in the Shenzhen Maternal and Child Health Management Information System (MCHMIS) for ten years was used in this study. Referral success rate (RSR, successful referrals to designated hospitals as a percentage of needed referrals) was used to assess health-seeking behavior. Trend χ2 tests were used to assess the overall trend of change after the implementation of mHealth in ten districts in Shenzhen. Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) was employed to assess the role of the mHealth app in changing patient health-seeking behaviors. Results: For the results of the trend χ2 tests, the ten districts of Shenzhen showed an upward trend. For the ITSA results, different results were shown between districts. Nanshan district, Longhua district, and Longgang district all demonstrated an upward trend in the first-year application of the mHealth app. Nanshan district and Longgang district both exhibited an upward trend in terms of sustained effects. Conclusions: There is a difference in the performance of the mHealth app across the ten districts. The results show that the three districts with better health resource allocation, Nanshan, Longgang, and Longhua districts, demonstrated more significant mHealth app improvements. The mHealth app's functions, management systems, and health resource allocation may be potential factors in the results. This suggests that when leveraging mHealth applications, the first step is to focus on macro-level area resource allocation measures. Secondly, there should be effective process design and strict regulatory measures. Finally, there should also be appropriate means of publicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strategic priority of the World Health Organization's Immunization Agenda 2030 is to increase vaccination coverage and equity through reaching "zero-dose" children. Through an ecological study, we sought to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage of the pentavalent and the measles/rubella vaccines in Kenya, without implying causality. The monthly number of doses from January 2017 to August 2022 were obtained from the Kenya Health Information System for the pentavalent and the measles/rubella vaccines. Immediate (step) and long-term (ramp) changes following interruptions occurring during the period from March 2020 to December 2020 were assessed through an interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, accounting for seasonality. In December 2020, there was an immediate decrease of 8337, 12,212, and 20,848 in the number of doses for the first, second, and third dose of the pentavalent vaccine, respectively (statistically significant for the third dose only). This corresponded to a percentage relative difference of −21.6, −20.1, and −24.5, respectively, for three doses of pentavalent vaccines, while for measles/rubella vaccine it was −27.3 and −33.6, respectively, for the first and second dose. COVID-19 resulted in interruptions affecting routine immunization, but recovery occurred within four months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The emergence of COVID-19 precipitated containment policies (e.g., lockdowns, school closures, etc.). These policies disrupted healthcare, potentially eroding gains for Sustainable Development Goals including for neonatal mortality. Our analysis aimed to evaluate indirect effects of COVID-19 containment policies on neonatal admissions and mortality in 67 neonatal units across Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania between January 2019 and December 2021. Methods: The Oxford Stringency Index was applied to quantify COVID-19 policy stringency over time for Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Stringency increased markedly between March and April 2020 for these four countries (although less so in Tanzania), therefore defining the point of interruption. We used March as the primary interruption month, with April for sensitivity analysis. Additional sensitivity analysis excluded data for March and April 2020, modelled the index as a continuous exposure, and examined models for each country. To evaluate changes in neonatal admissions and mortality based on this interruption period, a mixed effects segmented regression was applied. The unit of analysis was the neonatal unit (n = 67), with a total of 266,741 neonatal admissions (January 2019 to December 2021). Results: Admission to neonatal units decreased by 15% overall from February to March 2020, with half of the 67 neonatal units showing a decline in admissions. Of the 34 neonatal units with a decline in admissions, 19 (28%) had a significant decrease of ≥ 20%. The month-to-month decrease in admissions was approximately 2% on average from March 2020 to December 2021. Despite the decline in admissions, we found no significant changes in overall inpatient neonatal mortality. The three sensitivity analyses provided consistent findings. Conclusion: COVID-19 containment measures had an impact on neonatal admissions, but no significant change in overall inpatient neonatal mortality was detected. Additional qualitative research in these facilities has explored possible reasons. Strengthening healthcare systems to endure unexpected events, such as pandemics, is critical in continuing progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals, including reducing neonatal deaths to less than 12 per 1000 live births by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Interrupted time series (ITS) studies contribute importantly to systematic reviews of population‐level interventions. We aimed to develop and validate search filters to retrieve ITS studies in MEDLINE and PubMed. Methods: A total of 1017 known ITS studies (published 2013–2017) were analysed using text mining to generate candidate terms. A control set of 1398 time‐series studies were used to select differentiating terms. Various combinations of candidate terms were iteratively tested to generate three search filters. An independent set of 700 ITS studies was used to validate the filters' sensitivities. The filters were test‐run in Ovid MEDLINE and the records randomly screened for ITS studies to determine their precision. Finally, all MEDLINE filters were translated to PubMed format and their sensitivities in PubMed were estimated. Results: Three search filters were created in MEDLINE: a precision‐maximising filter with high precision (78%; 95% CI 74%–82%) but moderate sensitivity (63%; 59%–66%), most appropriate when there are limited resources to screen studies; a sensitivity‐and‐precision‐maximising filter with higher sensitivity (81%; 77%–83%) but lower precision (32%; 28%–36%), providing a balance between expediency and comprehensiveness; and a sensitivity‐maximising filter with high sensitivity (88%; 85%–90%) but likely very low precision, useful when combined with specific content terms. Similar sensitivity estimates were found for PubMed versions. Conclusion: Our filters strike different balances between comprehensiveness and screening workload and suit different research needs. Retrieval of ITS studies would be improved if authors identified the ITS design in the titles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on road crashes in Thailand using time series and interrupted time series analysis. To achieve the goal, road crash data from the Department of Highway (DOH), which includes total crashes, single vehicle crashes, fatalities, fatal crashes, speeding crashes, and drunk driving crashes, was obtained to conduct Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series models and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models. SARIMA models were applied to forecast the number of crashes in the absence of COVID-19 then compare them to the observed values to identify the difference. The impact of a policy change aimed at addressing the spread of COVID-19 was assessed using ITS models on a time series accident dataset. The goal was to ascertain if the intervention had a meaningful and causative impact on the outcome. The result showed that the first wave of COVID-19 caused a significant reduction in all road crash indicators instead of skyrocketing to a peak. After releasing the lockdown measures from the first wave of spreading, an increase was found in all of the crash indicators as well. However, the third wave of COVID-19, which lasted longest for nearly 7 months, also caused a decrease in the number of crashes, but not as much as the first wave of the outbreak. Moreover, the result from the interrupted time series also revealed that curfews and the closure of entertainment places are associated with a significant decrease in the number of speeding crashes and drunk driving crashes from 10 p.m. to 4 a.m., respectively. It can be observed that the COVID-19 countermeasures, such as curfews and bans on the sales of alcoholic beverages, led to a drop in the number of speeding and drunk driving crashes. • This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 on road crashes in Thailand. • Time series and interrupted time series analysis were applied in the analysis. • COVID-19 caused a significant reduction in all road crash indicators. • Curfews and closure of entertainment places significantly decrease the number of speeding and drunk driving crashes at night-time. • After releasing the lockdown, the number of road crashes were higher, especially speeding crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to global public health. Various measures at the national level have been implemented to control TB, and no evidence with long-term effectiveness has yet been evaluated on TB control programs. We confirmed the long-term effectiveness of the TB control programs in reducing overall burden in South Korea using interrupted time series analysis. Our finding suggests that, along with the public-private mix, relieving the economic burden of people with TB may complement achieving the End TB Strategy. For countries currently developing strategies for TB control, results may provide important insights in effective TB control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the care practices of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) throughout the world. However, the impact of the pandemic on TJA care practices has not yet been studied in China.MethodsThis retrospective multicenter cohort included patients aged 18 years or older who underwent TJA between January 2019 and December 2019 (prepandemic period) and January 2020 to December 2021 (pandemic period). Data were obtained from the medical records of 17 Chinese hospitals. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to estimate differences in monthly TJA volume, hospitalization proportion of TJA, preoperative characteristics, postoperative complications, 30-day readmissions, length of stay (LOS), and costs in inpatients undergoing TJA between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Multivariate regression and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses were used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital complications, readmissions at 30 days, LOS, and costs at the patient level.ResultsA total of 752,477 inpatients undergoing TJA in the prepandemic period, 1,291,248 in the pandemic period, with an average 13.1% yearly decrease in the volume of TJA during the pandemic. No significant changes were observed in the proportion of hospitalizations for TJA. ITS analyses showed increases in the proportion of comorbidities (8.5%, 95% CI: 3.4–14.0%) and the number of comorbidities (15.6%, 95% CI: 7.7–24.1%) in TJA cases during the pandemic, without increasing LOS, costs, complications, and readmission rates. Multivariate and PSM analyses showed 6% and 26% reductions in costs and readmission rates during the pandemic, respectively.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic was associated with more severe preoperative conditions and decreased volume, costs, and readmission rates in patients undergoing TJA in China. These findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have a dramatic impact on the TJA care pattern in China, which may have resulted from active and strict strategies in combating COVID-19 as well as a rapid response in hospital management.

Abstract Background Various measures taken against the COVID-19 pandemic are not only effective in reducing the spread of the disease, but also lead to some unexpected results. This article regarded these measures as an intervention and explored their impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Shantou, China. Methods The incidence rate and the surveillance data of tuberculosis from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2021 were provided by the Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute. Data were divided into pre-pandemic period (January 1st, 2018 - December 31st, 2019) and pandemic periods (January 1st, 2020 - December 31st, 2021). The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence prior to and during the COVID-19 epidemic. Results The results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis cases in Shantou decreased significantly (p

Abstract Objective The purpose of this study is to explore the change in physicians’ hypertension treatment behavior before and after the reform of the capitation in county medical community. Methods Spanning from January 2014 to December 2019, monthly data of outpatient and inpatient were gathered before and after the implementation of the reform in April 2015. We employed interrupted time series analysis method to scrutinize the instantaneous level and slope changes in the indicators associated with physicians’ behavior. Results Several indicators related to physicians’ behavior demonstrated enhancement. After the reform, medical cost per visit for inpatient exhibited a reverse trajectory (-53.545, 95%CI: -78.620 to -28.470, p

BackgroundThe Qingcaosha Reservoir is facing issues of algal blooms and eutrophication, and the resulting increase in the level of chlorination disinfection by-products in the water has been a major concern. ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of "Algae Monitoring and Control Program in Qingcaosha Reservoir" (hereinafter referred to as the program) on the control of trihalomethanes (THMs) in conventional finished water. MethodsFrom 2011 to 2019, water samples were collected from the Lujiazui Water Plant once per season, one sample each time, and the concentrations of four THMs (trichloromethane, dichlorobromomethane, monochlorodibromomethane, and tribromomethane) were measured in the samples. Using 2014 when the program was implemented as a cut-off point, the entire study period was divided into two phases: pre-implementation (2011–2013) and post-implementation(2014–2019). Segmented linear regression with interrupted time series analysis was applied to assess the concentrations and trends of THMs in the finished water before and after the program launch. ResultsThe concentration of total THMs in finished water increased by 1.561 µg·L−1 (P=0.010) for each season of time extension before launching the program. The change in the concentration of total THMs in finished water was not statistically significant after the program launch, but the THMs concentration showed a decreasing trend as the slope was −0.626 (P=0.001). From 2017 until the end of 2019, the average concentration of THMs in finished water of Lujiazui Water Plant dropped to 10 μg·L−1 or less.ConclusionsThe algae and eutrophication control measures in Qingcaosha Reservoir have achieved good results, controlling THMs in finished water at a low level, and the trend of THMs has changed from a yearly increase pattern before the program to a yearly decrease pattern after the program.

Abstract Background Cesarean section (C-section) rates, deemed a critical health indicator, have experienced a historical increase. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted healthcare patterns including delays or lack of follow-up in treatment and an increased number of patients with acute problems in hospitals. This study aimed to explore whether the observed surge is a genuine consequence of pandemic-related factors. Methods This study employs an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design to analyze monthly C-section rates from March 2018 to January 2023 in Kurdistan province, Iran. Segmented regression modeling is utilized for robust data analysis. Results The C-section rate did not show a significant change immediately after the onset of COVID-19. However, the monthly trend increased significantly during the post-pandemic period (p

Abstract Prior research has predominantly focused on the overall effects of the tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking behavior. However, there is a need to examine both the immediate and sustained associations of these two factors on subgroups of adolescents, employing an interrupted time-series model. We aimed to investigate the immediate and sustained association of tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking prevalence. This study utilized data from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey to analyze the prevalence of current smoking among all participants (CSP) and the prevalence of daily smoking among current smokers (DSP) of Korean adolescents (n = 1,159,995; mean, age 14.99; male 51.5%) over 18 years from 2005 to 2022. The study examined 18-year trends in CSP and DSP among Korean adolescents, emphasizing the influences of the 2015 tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic, using β coefficients and their differences (βdiff) from an interrupted time-series ARIMA model. While CSP exhibited a decreasing trend, DSP exhibited an increasing trend. Tobacco tax increase was associated with both the short and long terms in smoking prevalence, however, the short-term association on prevalence (CSP, − 3.076 [95% CI, − 3.707 to − 2.445]; DSP, − 4.112 [95% CI, − 6.488 to − 1.735]) was stronger. The pandemic was associated with an immediate increase in DSP (9.345 [95% CI, 5.285–13.406]). These effects were strongest among adolescents from low economic status and those exposed to familial secondhand smoking. Supportive programs for adolescents in low-income families will help overcome the effects associated with the pandemic. As a tobacco tax increase was associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence, this could be one method to overcome the effects of the pandemic.

Yanghaotian Wu,1– 3 Xuemei Han,3 Jingfu Qiu1 1Department of Social Medicine and Health Service Management, School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Institute of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Jingfu Qiu, School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Yixueyuan Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People’s Republic of China, Email jfqiucqmu@163.comBackground: In 2016, an innovative medical pricing reform called zero-markup drug policy (ZMDP) was implemented in selected pilot cities in China, which focuses on curbing the unreasonable growth of medical expenses. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of ZMDP on medical expenditure of stroke in western China.Methods: The quantitative data of inpatients diagnosed with stroke was extracted from the medical insurance system in 7 tertiary public hospitals. An interrupted time series (ITS) was used to analyze the instantaneous level and long-term trend changes of hospitalization expenses per visit from January 2015 to November 2018.Results: A total of 22,407 stroke inpatients were extracted. The total hospitalization expense per visit had the highest proportion of 20,000 CNY and above (33.66%). After the ZMDP, the median total hospitalization expense and western medicine expense per visit decreased by 631.74 CNY and 966.35 CNY, respectively (P < 0.001). Before the policy, the total hospitalization expense, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) expense, examination expense, treatment expense, laboratory expense and surgical expense per visit showed upward trends (P< 0.05), while the anesthesia expense per visit showed a downward trend (P< 0.001). When the policy was implemented, the anesthesia expense per visit instantaneously increased by 91.70% (P< 0.001). After the policy, the total hospitalization expense, western medicine expense, TCM expense, treatment expense and surgical expense per visit changed from upward trends to downward trends (P< 0.05). The anesthesia expense per visit changed from a downward trend to an upward trend (P< 0.001), and the examination expense per visit maintained an upward trend (P=0.005).Conclusion: The economic burden of stroke inpatients decreased significantly with the implementation of the ZMDP, especially for the drug expenses. The medical service expenses increased significantly, reflecting the improvement in the value of medical staff’s technical labor. However, the unexpected increase in the examination expenses was likely to be associated with the unreasonable medical compensation mechanism.Keywords: zero-markup drug policy, stroke, interrupted time series, hospitalization expenses, drug expenses

Abstract Introduction Interrupted time series (ITS) design is a commonly used method for evaluating large-scale interventions in clinical practice or public health. However, improperly using this method can lead to biased results. Objective To investigate design and statistical analysis characteristics of drug utilization studies using ITS design, and give recommendations for improvements. Methods A literature search was conducted based on PubMed from January 2021 to December 2021. We included original articles that used ITS design to investigate drug utilization without restriction on study population or outcome types. A structured, pilot-tested questionnaire was developed to extract information regarding study characteristics and details about design and statistical analysis. Results We included 153 eligible studies. Among those, 28.1% (43/153) clearly explained the rationale for using the ITS design and 13.7% (21/153) clarified the rationale of using the specified ITS model structure. One hundred and forty-nine studies used aggregated data to do ITS analysis, and 20.8% (31/149) clarified the rationale for the number of time points. The consideration of autocorrelation, non-stationary and seasonality was often lacking among those studies, and only 14 studies mentioned all of three methodological issues. Missing data was mentioned in 31 studies. Only 39.22% (60/153) reported the regression models, while 15 studies gave the incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization. Time-varying participant characteristics were considered in 24 studies. In 97 studies containing hierarchical data, 23 studies clarified the heterogeneity among clusters and used statistical methods to address this issue. Conclusion The quality of design and statistical analyses in ITS studies for drug utilization remains unsatisfactory. Three emerging methodological issues warranted particular attention, including incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization, time-varying participant characteristics and hierarchical data analysis. We offered specific recommendations about the design, analysis and reporting of the ITS study.

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic had considerable implications for cancer related care. This study aimed to examine its impact on the dispensing of systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) in Ireland. Study design: A repeated cross-sectional design was used which involved a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Methods: This nationally representative study utilised monthly pharmacy claims (i.e. dispensing) data from community and hospital schemes. Dispensed items among individuals prescribed any SACT from January 2019 to April 2021 were included. Results: During the study period, 641,273 SACT items were dispensed, including 57,199 chemotherapeutic agents (8.9 %), 15,970 immunotherapeutic agents (2.5 %), 87,813 targeted therapies (13.7 %), and 480,291 (74.9 %) endocrine therapies. There were on average 3.3 and 4.1 fewer immunotherapy and targeted therapy agents, respectively, dispensed per 100,000 population per month post-March 2020 (vs. expected), compared to the level prior to March 2020. For endocrine therapy, there was a significant slowing of the trend post-March 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic period (slope change = −1.72, 95 % CI -2.9 to −0.5; p

Objective: The purpose of this study is to explore the change in physicians' hypertension treatment behavior before and after the reform of the capitation in county medical community. Methods: Spanning from January 2014 to December 2019, monthly data of outpatient and inpatient were gathered before and after the implementation of the reform in April 2015. We employed interrupted time series analysis method to scrutinize the instantaneous level and slope changes in the indicators associated with physicians' behavior. Results: Several indicators related to physicians' behavior demonstrated enhancement. After the reform, medical cost per visit for inpatient exhibited a reverse trajectory (-53.545, 95%CI: -78.620 to -28.470, p < 0.01). The rate of change in outpatient drug combination decelerated (0.320, 95%CI: 0.149 to 0.491, p < 0.01). The ratio of infusion declined for both outpatient and inpatient cases (-0.107, 95%CI: -0.209 to -0.004, p < 0.1; -0.843, 95%CI: -1.154 to -0.532, p < 0.01). However, the results revealed that overall medical cost per visit and drug proportion for outpatient care continued their initial upward trend. After the reform, the decline of drug proportion for outpatient care was less pronounced compared to the period prior to the reform, and length of stay also had a similar trend. Conclusion: To some extent, capitation under the county medical community encourages physicians to control the cost and adopt a more standardized diagnosis and treatment behavior. This study provides evidence to consider the impact of policy changes on physicians' behavior when designing payment methods and healthcare systems aimed at promoting PHC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the public's sentiments about vaccines by analyzing Twitter data during the CDC's vaccination management planning stage in the United States. Sentiment scores were assigned to each tweet using a sentiment dictionary and the sentiment changes were analyzed over 52 weeks from November 2020 to November 2021. An interrupted time series model was used to analyze the difference in sentiment, which revealed that there was a shift. Initially, overall sentiments were negative but became positive as the stage of general vaccine supply approached. However, negative sentiments sharply rose when the vaccine supply transitioned to the phase of universalization. The results identified two dominant strategic action fields for vaccines providing polarized messages on Twitter and the negative trend was strong for most of the period. The findings highlight the importance of managing strategic action fields on social networks to prevent mass hysteria during vaccine policy implementation. This study stresses the significance of effectively managing strategic action fields on social media platforms to prevent mass hysteria while implementing vaccine policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic hit Italy very harshly in two waves, the first in spring 2020 and the second between the autumn and the winter of the same year. Data show some major differences between the two phases; in particular, the first wave caused fewer infections but had a higher fatality rate. These pandemic evolutions, together with modified social conditions, called for a rapid adaptation of containment measures, i.e. stricter and homogeneous in the first wave, flexible and diversified in the second wave. The interrupted time series analysis applied to daily data on new cases yields positive results for both interventions in flattening the infection curve. The policies achieved almost the same percentage of positive cases avoided in the two waves. Adaptive and diversified policies based on learning from previous results seem to be suitable for this kind of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on depression burden focused on the earlier pandemic phase specific to lockdowns, but the longer-term impact of the pandemic is less well-studied. In this population-based cohort study, we examined the short-term and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on depression incidence and healthcare service use among patients with depression. Methods: Using the territory-wide electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we identified all patients aged ≥ 10 years with new diagnoses of depression from 2014 to 2022. We performed an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis to examine changes in incidence of medically attended depression before and during the pandemic. We then divided all patients into nine cohorts based on year of depression incidence and studied their initial and ongoing service use patterns until the end of 2022. We applied generalized linear modeling to compare the rates of healthcare service use in the year of diagnosis between patients newly diagnosed before and during the pandemic. A separate ITS analysis explored the pandemic impact on the ongoing service use among prevalent patients with depression. Results: We found an immediate increase in depression incidence (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10–1.33, p < 0.001) in the population after the pandemic began with non-significant slope change, suggesting a sustained effect until the end of 2022. Subgroup analysis showed that the increases in incidence were significant among adults and the older population, but not adolescents. Depression patients newly diagnosed during the pandemic used 11% fewer resources than the pre-pandemic patients in the first diagnosis year. Pre-existing depression patients also had an immediate decrease of 16% in overall all-cause service use since the pandemic, with a positive slope change indicating a gradual rebound over a 3-year period. Conclusions: During the pandemic, service provision for depression was suboptimal in the face of increased demand generated by the increasing depression incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate the need to improve mental health resource planning preparedness for future public health crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]