Search

The option pricing theory has wide applicability in corporate finance, but it is also increasingly used to analyze the effectiveness of non-financial (material) investments. In traditional investment analysis, a project or a new investment should be accepted only if the returns on the project exceed the hurdle rate; in the context of cash flows and discount rates, this translates into projects with positive net present values (NPV). There is no doubt that it does not take full account of the numerous options that usually relate to developer investment. However, in many cases, the valuation of real options is more difficult than the valuation of options for financial assets. In this paper, we will analyze one of the options, which isembedded in capital budgeting projects - the option to delay a project, especially when a the company has exclusive rights to the project. The value of the option is largely derived from the variance in cash flows – the higher the variance, the higher the value of the project delay option. The variance in the present value of cash flows from the project can be estimated in different ways, however, in the case of non-financial investment projects, these methods are very limited. We are analyzing the possibility of estimating this volatility, taking into account the fact that the forecasted cash flows may show varying volatility in individual years. The paper shows, that by using a probability-based valuation model (using the Crystal Ball techniques) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis. The method of presented volatility estimation can be applied by taking into account the randomness of many input data to the project.

The construction industry is sensitive to changing random conditions that determine the occurrence of various disturbances during the construction investment process. These disturbances are the source of numerous delays during realization of the construction project. The identification of the reasons for delays and their impact on the progress of construction works allows for the efficient management of the construction project and planning of protective measures, which reduce the risk of their occurrence. The purpose of this article is to identify and then to assess, on the basis of the conducted questionnaire survey, the impact of disturbances on delays in construction works. In addition, the factors were ranked in terms of the degree of impact on the construction project by calculating the rank of the factor.

The complexity of problems and the necessity to find a comprehensive approach to their solution favours the search for various methods that support the decision making process in the construction industry. At present, the multi-criteria methods lead the way. They enable the assessment of the problem in many aspects and with taking into account qualitative and quantitative data. Moreover, these methods do not limit the decision-maker in terms of the number of considered variants as well as the scope and the type of adopted assessment criteria. The aim of the article is to present the procedure of assessment of proposed building material solutions with taking into account the division of criteria due to their character – benefits (B) and costs (C). It was shown the dependence adopted by the decision maker strategy on the final ranking of solutions using the BOCR approach in the AHP method.