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The economic impact of the tourism and hospitality sector as an economic system is partly general, similar to other sectors of the economy, and partly specific. At the same time, the sector is a major driving force for macro-economies, with positive effects on various sectors of the economy. Based on an analysis of current statistical data, the study formulates the characteristics of the sector: the share of hotels and restaurants in GDP, the revenue from accommodation fees of commercial accommodation establishments, the evolution of the turnover of guests in commercial accommodation establishments, the average gross monthly earnings of employed persons, etc. Analysing the data for the period under review, 2008-2021, we can see that Hungary started to see some growth in employment and average gross earnings after 2010, but still lagging behind the targets set in 2005. In line with international trends, tourism in Hungary has developed positively in several areas by 2019, reaching or exceeding pre-2008 crisis levels, with overall growth in the sector exceeding the national economy average. However, the sector’s performance was also significantly affected by the sharp decline caused by Covid-19 and the war situation in 2022. The aim of the analysis is to present the impact of the international financial crisis starting in 2008 and the Covid-19 epidemic in March 2020, to compare the effects of the two crises on GDP, labour market factors, with a special focus on the accommodation and food services sector.

To study the economic circuit, it is necessary to study the role played by the various economic agents in the market for goods and services and in the financial market, each agent has a main function in the circuit, national accounting studies this circuit which performs between the agents economy and the market. Both national accounting measures the activity of the nation by calculating the various global economic aggregates such as (GDP, Savings, etc.). It makes it possible to study the monetary flows in the economic circuit between the various economic agents, and to record the economic operations in the market of goods and services as well as the financial operations in the financial market during a given period (one year). Our work serves to show what role does the economic circuit play in national accounting? to define the main roles in the system of Algerian economic accounts (SCEA)?. For this we will subdivide our research into two parts: the first part concerns the representation and definition of an economic circuit in national accounts and show the different operations (of goods and services and distributions) and what will be the economic Aggregates that can be learned from the economic circuit. In a second part will devote the involvement of economic agents in the SCEA (System of Algerian Economic Accounts)

People have been moving from one area to another since ancient times in order to exchange products from one nation with those from another in order to obtain what was lacking in the nation where they resided. These were the first product-to-product trades, and the latter was placed into circulation on money as a product-to-product trade. These early types of commerce have evolved significantly, and they continue to do so now as capital flows from one country to another. This phenomenon, which has influenced worldwide economic growth and improved living standards, saw significant expansion in the twenty-first century in the form of loans used to fund economic development in many nations, as well as ownership of financial assets. In the present era, domestic capital is insufficient for countries to thrive and remain competitive in global markets. For emerging economies, foreign investments that enter the host country as debt or money are crucial financial resources. In this paper, we will discuss the data on the development of exports and FDI of 22 countries from around the world and analysed the evolution of FDI, GDP and exports over a period of 40 years to see trends and patterns of FDI and Exports and their contribution to the economic growth of countries. Broken up in groups, the paper will compare and assess certain countries/regions, grouping and pairing them with economies or countries of similar growth/stance. Corroborating this statistics with recent global events and based on the previous statistics, this paper will try to predict the future trends of FDI around the world.

This research aims to provide an empirical assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy sustainability factors, like fiscal deficit and economic growth in the Western Balkan countries and East European Union Countries, using panel-level data for the yearly time span from 2000-2021. The empirical model provides the impact of fiscal deficit, alongside other control variables like inflation, schooling, total investments, trade openness, and output gap on economic growth in the selected group of countries. For the purpose of research, we employed Static and dynamic panel estimation techniques like Fixed Effects with Driscol and Kraay standard errors and system GMM. The findings confirm that fiscal deficit has significantly affected the growth level in both groups of countries. In addition, when the fiscal deficit has interacted with the COVID-19 dummy, it appears as a growth-enhancing factor. However, when the fiscal deficit interacts with the Eurozone debt crisis period, it becomes a growth-deteriorating factor. Other control variables like inflation, trade openness, total investments, and the output gap are found important factors in explaining the growth performance of the Central East European and Western Balkan countries.

In the study, using panel data analysis, the relationship between GDP and global iron, global cotton, global oil, and global copper prices were analyzed under the impoverishing growth hypothesis. The countries analyzed in this study are developing countries such as China, Chile, Czechia, Greece, Hungary, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Thailand, and Turkey. The data covers the period 2003-2018. The analysis results show that the increase in global cotton and oil prices decreases the GDP of these countries, and the increase in global iron and copper prices increases the GDPs of these countries. Therefore, policymakers should support investment in renewable energy, domestic agriculture, and mining sectors.

This paper follows the already existing literature to address three main pressing concerns that Romania is currently facing with respect to sustainable development and economic growth, which has likely been impeded as a direct consequence of the ongoing sanitary crisis. The research questions of this paper were asked with the consideration of finding possible solutions to the current developments. These questions were “How will the global health crisis project on Romania’s GDP growth in 2021 and going forward?”, “To what extent can Romania face its current challenges with respect to the budgetary pressures?”. The research itself was conducted using the R programming language with quantitative data, namely quarterly GDP starting from 2005 Q1 onwards and its main objective is to simulate Romania’s GDP to answer the aforementioned questions. Therefore, this research is empirical in the sense that it derives the simulated data from real data which was taken from Eurostat. The main findings of this research were that Romania’s GDP could grow by a mean 3.2% in 2021, which is more conservative than the existing institutional forecasts made by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the Romanian National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting, implying that the majority of the simulated outcomes have been in that respective range of values. Moreover, this research also finds that consumption is expected to increase by approximately 4.2% and that the budget deficit relative to GDP could go as low as to negative 7.8%. This paper creates value for future policymaking as it proposes solutions which could help Romania going forward. Thus, this paper creates value for not only the policymakers but the society as a whole.

One of the main objectives of sustainable development is to improve living standards and obtain a friendlier business environment, by increasing their competitiveness and performance and the main goal of companies are to achieve a productive activity that ensures their short-term success, but also to pay attention to long-term survival. This analysis was performed to assess the influence of financial indicators of companies and their contribution on the sustainable development of the North-West region of Romania. The research follows the evolution of sustainable development and financial indicators of the sample of 37 companies listed on the BSE, with data collected from 2008-2019, covering the following sectors according to their BSE classification: manufacturing, trade, hotels, construction. In this paper is used both qualitative and quantitative research methods. Among the qualitative research methods used it can be mentioned: observation, comparison and analysis of data. The econometric analysis is based on the estimation of a panel data regression technique and the decision between the random effects model and the fixed effects model was based on the Hausman test. The microeconomic indicators used to analyse the connection with the indicators of sustainable development of the North-West region of Romania are turnover, net profit and the average number of employees used as independent variables and the indicators selected based on information provided by the National Institute of Statistics for the North-West region, called Territorial Sustainable Development Indicators, are the following: Regional Gross Domestic Product, GDP per inhabitant, economically active population, the employment rate of the working age population, the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate used as dependent variables. The results of the correlation analysis of the parameters showed a weak, insignificant influence between the financial indicators and the sustainable development indicators, the observed data do not allow the identification of a valid linear model.

Ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ve karmaşık ilişki araştırmacıların her zaman ilgi odağı olmuştur. Bu çalışmada BİST Banka, Döviz Kuru, Altın Fiyatları (ons) ve Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla 2002/Q1 ve 2019/Q4 arasındaki dönem ele alınarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Hacker & Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik analizi ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi ile test edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlık dereceleri, öncelikle ADF ve KPSS birim kök testleri ile ardından yapısal kırılmaları göz önüne alan LS (2004) testi ile belirlenmiştir. Bootstrap nedensellik analizine göre %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde sadece GSYİH’dan BİST Banka’ya doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu saptanmıştır. Asimetrik nedensellik analizinin sonuçlarına göre dolar kurundaki negatif yönlü bir şokun, BİST Banka’daki pozitif yönlü şokun nedeni olduğu, BİST Bankadaki pozitif yönlü şokun, GSYİH’daki pozitif yönlü şokun nedeni olduğu gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca BİST Banka ve altın fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik incelendiğinde, altın fiyatlarındaki pozitif yönlü şokun, BİST Banka’nın hem pozitif hem de negatif yönlü şoklarının nedeni olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Copyright of Al Bashaer Economic Journal is the property of Al Bashaer Economic Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

There is a major interest from international and national bodies, but also from researchers for measuring inequality, materialized in numerous reports, studies and researches in the field. Multiple indicators are used to generate data and analyse the dynamics and patterns of inequality in order to find solutions to reduce economic disparities. This paper intends to carry out a comparative analysis regarding regional inequality. In order to carry out this analysis we have chosen two countries, Romania and Poland. We have analysed regional inequality based on regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for the period 2007-2016, and also based on the structural funds for 2007-2013. For measuring inequalities, we have used Theil index. Our results emphasize that there are significant inequalities between the regions of the two analysed countries and also that there is greater inequality in Romania than in Poland. The results of the study should be of interest to the policy makers as measuring and reducing inequality is a necessary process for meeting the objective of reducing European regional disparities and ensuring sustainable economic growth.

A large number of countries believe that their economy has been boosted thanks to the EU funds. This is difficult to say yes because everyone comes up with different results. Experts in the field have performed numerous and diverse studies on this topic, using different types of methodologies and tools. Several hypothesizes have been tested and the general agreed conclusion is that the main reason for these results is not the amount of money obtained from the EU, but the way they are used. The pro-development way of utilizing the funds has increased the probability to generate valid economic growth. Moreover, long-term planning and strategic implementation regarding EU funds have proven to be more effective than short-time solutions. This paper proposes to analyze the impact of EU funds on the gross domestic product in ten European countries by using linear regression. The Member States must wish and plan for a sustainable, healthy growth, which will not cause the accumulation of risks, imbalances, and painful tensions, however, it will cause inevitable corrections in the future. To do this, countries need to focus on qualitative and not just quantitative growth, which will also determine the convergence of production structures and endowments with infrastructure, not just revenues. This would mean an increase in endowments with production factors. The focus is therefore on increasing the growth potential, an unobservable but extremely important variable of the economy. Many financial experts emphasized that countries of Central and Eastern Europe will spend EU money on the development of roads and railway infrastructure. There is a big recommendation on focusing on Research and Development, which is a tool that could help the economies of the region in the long term. The EU should motivate these countries to absorb the funds as quickly as possible by reprimanding the governments. Experience of best practices is a key element in EU funding and also the trigger for readjusting the framework and mindset of national stakeholders.

Recently, Morocco has initiated an extensive program of economic, financial, and social reforms aimed at achieving sustainable development. These reforms are mostly structural changes that take years to yield results. The green plan proposed by Morocco integrates an approach that addresses issues related to water scarcity and offers a chance to make the agriculture sector an engine of the economy, thereby rebalancing the trade balance. The strategy aims to give the sector a dynamic of balanced evolution, exploit the potential for progress, preserve the balance of social and economic issues, and support the profound change that the global agri-food system is undergoing. This investigation reveals that demographic development has a tangible impact on economic and sustainable development, and we must manage the risks associated with changes in today’s world.

The issue of unemployment set in the context of economic development is a crucial issue for ensuring economic growth of a country. The aim of the text is to analyze the relationship between unemployment and basic macroeconomic indicators and to confirm the direct relationship between these variables. The research method used was the analysis of the values of the general unemployment rate, gross domestic product, i.e. GDP, and gross value added, i.e. GVA, and their subsequent comparison. Other research methods include correlation analysis with Pearson’s correlation coefficient, which confirmed a high degree of correlation between the general unemployment rate and the values of GDP and GVA. The research confirmed the existence of a correlation between the general unemployment rate and both GDP and GVA. GDP and GVA in the Moravian-Silesian Region were increasing in the sample years 2013-2019, while the general unemployment rate was decreasing. The analysis of the values shows that the values of GDP and GVA were inversely proportional to the values of the general unemployment rate. A limitation of the research was that economic development is not only influenced by the unemployment rate. As a result, it was not possible to establish a precise value that would define the extent of the impact of unemployment on the economic development of the region. The contribution of the paper is the confirmation of the existence of the correlation of unemployment with the mentioned development indicators, and the validity of Okun’s Law also on the territory of the Moravian-Silesian Region.

The purpose of the article is to show the negative impact of the COVID-19 on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in Kyrgyzstan. The research methodology is based on the works of domestic scientists and information and analytical reviews regarding GDP in Kyrgyzstan. An analysis was made of GDP growth after the country′s accession to the EAEU (Eurasion Economic Union). Our country sought to join this union, and as it turned out, not in vain. The positive results from the performance in the EAEU are shown, especially for such a macroeconomic indicator as GDP. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in Kyrgyzstan and in other countries has been revealed. The consequences of the pandemic have been devastating for almost all countries. An analysis was made of the decline in GDP during the pandemic in Kyrgyzstan. Measures are given to ensure positive dynamics of the economic growth, such as the creation of favorable conditions for entrepreneurship; improving the business and stimulating investment activity; creating conditions for increasing productivity in the real sector of the economy; strengthening foreign trade relations and developing the domestic market. The obtained scientific results can be used in the program to improve the economic situation in the country.

This article assesses the impact of fiscal pressure through the relationship between direct taxes, indirect taxes and taxes received by the central government as a percentage of GDP, and personal income tax rates, corporate income tax rates and value added taxes using a country sample that includes members of the EU-28, Iceland and Norway. Empirical analyses use annual data from 2004 to 2016 and employ techniques to account for possible linear effects in fiscal policy actions. Results show that for all countries considered in the analyses there is a strong relationship between dependent variables and independent variables in four econometric models.

The global economic crisis has not spared the countries of the Western Balkans. The ensuing recession, characterized by a decline in economic activity, a decline in consumption and an increase in unemployment, went hand in hand with drops in public revenues. This in turn resulted in budget imbalances that manifested in structural budget deficits and higher public debt. Fiscal consolidation was deemed necessary across the board. In this process, certain fiscal policy elements varied among countries. The structure of public revenues and public expenditures changed. The question is whether the fiscal consolidation was successful and to what extent. Dynamic panel analysis using PMG estimator in six Western Balkan Countries for the period 2004-2016 has shown that fiscal consolidation has positive impact on economic growth in this region. So, Western Balkan Countries have to conduct responsible public finances in order to encourage economic growth.

Copyright of Economic Researcher Review is the property of Association of Arab Universities and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The classic model of economic growth is described by GDP, employment rate for working-age individuals, unemployment rate and the labour cost index. This paper aims to present a changing of the paradigm to measure the effect on the economic growth of only the classical factors (indicators) with elements of employment quality. For this purpose will be used an econometric analysis – Vector Autoregressive model. The quarterly data used for Romania is provided by official statistics. The software used for the analysis is R Project, with the package vars. The classic model could be replaced by a new model which includes GDP, employment rate for people aged 15 and more, social productivity, NEETs rate, and rate of early leavers from education and training for individuals aged 15-24. Hence, the proposed model encloses new components, mainly the youth’s performance in employment and their interest in education and employment and the active ageing. The need for such a model is based on some statistical insights of Active Ageing Index, NEETs rates and early leavers from education and training rates. The proposed model is multivariate; therefore, all the variables are addressed simultaneously, and is meant to explain the behaviour of a variable based on its past and other variables. Based on the results, the study will underline some important policy that could be implemented.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between electricity consumption, energy use and GDP in Bangladesh, using annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2014. The bounds testing (ARDL) approach reveal that electricity consumptions have significant and positive long run impact on GDP and vice versa. The results of the estimated ARDL-ECM models indicate that long-run causality is directing from electricity consumptions and energy use to GDP, and GDP and energy use to electricity consumptions. Thus, in the long run, we find evidence of the feedback hypothesis suggesting the interdependent relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in which causation runs in both directions and serve as complements. Finally, this study also explores that the relationship among the variables is insignificant in the short-run. Thus, the empirical results of this study might provide a better enthusiastic to the policymakers of Bangladesh to execute the Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 to become a high-income country by 2041.

The research carried out on Romania's foreign trade performance aimed at establishing the impact of the Romania's accession to the EU onto the Romanian external trade balance. Another important scientific contribution is the analysis of the impact of the new Romanian trade policy on the general evolution of Romania's foreign trade during the period 1995-2016, for which we used a series of general indicators that we usually find in the statistical yearbooks , under the names of: export value (FOB prices); import value (CIF prices); value of imports (FOB prices); trade balance (FOB exports - CIF imports); trade balance (FOB exports - FOB imports); export per capita. In today's context, it is justified to identify innovative methods and strategies for establishing and capitalizing on the competitive advantages of Romanian companies engaged in foreign trade as a result of our country's accession to the European Union, in order to solve the complex economic problems generated by the major trade deficit of Romania, as well as the creation of mechanisms for implementing the strategies and methods resulting from the researchers conducted to reduce this deficit and to maximize the positive effects of Romania's accession to the EU. As this article shows, Romania's degree of international openness has been sinuous, with the year 2016 being the year when it reached the maximum value of the analyzed period of 83.71%. To this result, an important contribution was almost equal to exports and imports (around 42.32% of trade opening from imports and 41.39% of exports), which represents a significant improvement over the period 2000-2013. Also our analyse for Romania shows that excepting the years 1995-1996, 1998, 2000-2001 and 2003-2007, respectively, 2016, the coefficient of elasticity of imports was higher than the modulus of elasticity of exports, although subunit in the years 1997, 1999, 2005, 2007-2009 and 2013 respectively. Certainly, future research directions will mainly address and develop the same directions we have been dealing with so far, but deepening our research in several directions, such as: regulatory aspects of international trade by investigating the extensive ramifications of the tensions that exist in the relationship between the WTO and the regional trade agreements, which we consider to be of systemic significance, as they also place strong emphasis on Romanian foreign trade and commercial policy, Romania, as an EU member, being part of more than half of the world's functioning bilateral trade agreements; geographic reorientation of Romania's foreign trade by providing studies to Romanian business agents enabling them to maximize the opportunities offered by the rich portfolio of free trade agreements made available by the European Union on the basis of the products that make up current structure.

The authors study levels of sustainable development potential and determine the positions of Ukraine and other countries in the peer-groups [4], based on individual macroeconomic indicators. The research includes a comparative analysis of absolute and relative terms of GDP, industrial production and the index of competitiveness for the countries included to the peer-groups. The authors analyse the position of countries based on the GDP per capita and components of sustainable development (Quality of Life Index and Security of Life Index). In the article, the authors suggest the methodical approach of performing the comparative analysis of peer-group countries based on their indicators values. This approach gives the possibility to investigate the country’s potential in the limits of the chosen peer-group and propose the recommendations for increase of economic potential in purpose of sustainable development achievement.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between electricity consumption, energy use and GDP in Bangladesh, using annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2014. The bounds testing (ARDL) approach reveal that electricity consumptions have significant and positive long run impact on GDP and vice versa. The results of the estimated ARDL-ECM models indicate that long-run causality is directing from electricity consumptions and energy use to GDP, and GDP and energy use to electricity consumptions. Thus, in the long run, we find evidence of the feedback hypothesis suggesting the interdependent relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in which causation runs in both directions and serve as complements. Finally, this study also explores that the relationship among the variables is insignificant in the short-run. Thus, the empirical results of this study might provide a better enthusiastic to the policymakers of Bangladesh to execute the Power System Master Plan (PSMP) 2016 to become a high-income country by 2041.

According to the OECD, competitiveness is a measure of a country's advantage or disadvantage in selling its products on international markets. While economists consider productivity and growth rate as basic indicators of competitiveness, those dealing with economic- and social policy - including the OECD and various bodies of the EU - also emphasize the importance of high level employment rates. The regional policy of the EU,which is targeting balanced territorial development, considers the improvement of the competitiveness of its regions as the most effective tool achieving cohesion. The study contains an analysis of the GDP of the 12 member states that joined the Union in 2004 (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia) and those in 2007 (Romania and Bulgaria) in relation with the employment rate, corporate tax, personal income tax values, imports and exports value.

The global recession and the sovereign debt of European countries have triggered an intense debate over the effectiveness of fiscal policy and over the consequences of rising public debt. The relation between public debt and economic growth is a very studied and discussed debate. This paper aims to focus on some essential questions. A high public debt has a negative impact on economic growth? Does a low economic growth promote the growth of debt? What are the factors that affect the performance of these indicators and the mechanisms of transmission from one to another? The literature identifies two main lines: the Ricardian theory (or the Ricardian equivalence, under which the government debt is equivalent to the future taxes) and the conventional view (according to which the government debt stimulates aggregate demand and growth in the short term and promotes the reduction of capital and national income in the long term). What about the empirical data? The results are different in different countries and periods. What is the situation in Albania at about the last 25 years? Analyzing the macroeconomic situation and the main causes of a positive growth and a macroeconomic stability, but a high public debt, we can conclude over the expectations and the trend of the future.

Research background: In the past, some studies proved that the development of a currency exchange rate predicts the development of the whole national economy. The monetary market overtakes the development of the actual economy for a few months. Does this apply also in the case of the Czech koruna, in the era of the global Coronavirus pandemics and in the world affected by the pandemics? Purpose of the article: The main objective is to analyze a dependence of the Czech koruna (CZK) to Euro (EUR) exchange rate development on gross domestic product of the Czech Republic in the conditions of an expected crisis. Methods: The data used of the analysis are represented by the information about the CZK and EUR exchange rate from the beginning of 1999 to the 15th June 2020 and by the quarterly development of the Czech GDP. To measure the dependence and predict the development of the GDP based on the CZK exchange rate development, the method of AI is used, namely the regression analysis using the artificial neural networks. Findings & Value added: The effect of EUR/CZK on GDP can be quantified reaching around 31%. It is assumed that the GDP will fall significantly in 2020 with a certain growth only being possibly expected in 2021 (even more significantly in the second quarter of 2021). Due to the GDP development, the development of the EUR/CZK could then be forecasted as well.

Research background: The global outbreak of the COVID-19 and, as a result, the measures taken fundamentally disrupted the lives of people and economies. Private and public demand, industrial production, supply chains, etc. were affected. Given the severity of these shock changes, it is clear that the European Union will have experienced a severe economic recession. Purpose of the article: Economists have long pointed to the Czech economy’s strong dependence on the automotive industry. Carmakers and a number of companies connected to them have been chained into existential difficulties after COVID-19 outbreak. However, the scenario of redirecting the industry is not real. Methods: The article maps the declines in the forecast of GDP development in 2020 and 2021 in selected EU countries and statistically evaluates the historical dependence of Czech exports on German car production. Findings & Value added: According to predictions, the Czech Republic expects the highest negative deviations in comparison with other EU countries. Reality will show what role a strong dependence on the automotive industry plays in this. The results of the statistics of the previous decade do not confirm the fundamental dependence of Czech exports on German automobile production. As the results indicate, Czech exporters are already diversifying at least in the sense of the target markets. The author raises the question whether the concept of public belief in the importance of supporting Czech carmakers as important producers of GDP on the export side can be the result of a strong lobbying by carmakers.

Research background: China’s share in the global economy has experienced a swift growth since opening up and reforming the country’s foreign policy in 1978. USA sanction on China has so far concentrated on a heap of issues including China’s enormous exchange shortfall with the U.S., currency control, constrained market access, licensed innovation robbery and security issues identified with Huawei. Also, USA sanction on China has so far lead to a decrease in exports and outflow of FDI, reduce in the inflow trade and investment, and apparently hinders the Chinese GPD growth and diminished its currency exchange rate. Purpose of the article: The aim is to predict the future development of the GDP of the China and the USA and to estimate their further development through the prism of mutual trade sanctions and COVID-19. Methods: The data collection demonstrates the course of a time series of a daily RMB exchange rate development from the beginning of 1992 to June 2020. Furthermore, it represents the time series of a quarterly development of the Chinese GDP for the same time period. Using neural networks, a regression for different variants of the time series delay in connection with the analysis of the USA sanctions is conducted. Findings & Value added: The GDP of both countries has developed over the last two years, as if sanctions had not been imposed. However, the situation is changing with COVID-19. In this case, it is clear that the impact will be more significant. US GDP will stagnate. PRC GDP will fall.

Research background: Today, the acceptance of fiscal policy decisions necessitates the analysis of policy efficiency with the help of optimization issues, the study of cause-and-effect relationships between budget expenditures and macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, revenues, and the evaluation of a number of econometric models among all. The need for these areas makes it important to study and analyze the effects of fiscal policy on the economy, which allows to justify the relevance of the topic of the article. Purpose of the article: The article is devoted to the assessment of the fiscal and economic consequences of changes in oil prices in the world market, as well as the study of the relationship between state budget revenues and government expenditure in Azerbaijan. It was revealed that a 1% increase in oil prices, in the long run, increased Azerbaijan’s GDP by 0.52% and state budget expenditures by 0.88%. The calculations allow to conclude that there is a high correlation between government spending and state budget revenues in Azerbaijan. The obtained result indicates a positive relationship between the aforementioned economic variables. Methods: The most common method of analyzing the possible causal relationship between macroeconomic indicators is the causality test proposed by Granger in 1969. However, from a methodological point of view, the application of this test to study the causal relationship between economic indicators requires these indicators to be stationary. This statistical feature can be violated in the case of the economic indicator having the single root elements. To do this, we tested the Unit root problem of the variable using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Simultaneously, a number of other important features of the evaluated models were tested and the adequacy of the models was confirmed. Findings & Value added: As a result of the research, it was determined that there is a short-term and long-term causal relationship between world oil prices and Azerbaijan’s GDP and state budget expenditures. According to the results, a 1 percent increase in oil prices leads to the increase of the current level of GDP growth in Azerbaijan by 0.20 percent in the short term, and by 0.52 percent in the long term. Parallelly, it was revealed that a 1 percent increase in world oil prices leads to a 0.88 percent increase in Azerbaijan’s state budget expenditures in the long run. The correlation between Azerbaijan’s government expenditures and state budget revenues was analyzed, and a high correlation between these two macroeconomic indicators was identified.

The objective of the paper is to present the EU policies, how they relate with Member States and with its partners, the multiculturalism has never been an impediment, but it has made it special, mentioning here the economic level, where the Union has the highest GDP per capita in the world. Our intention is to present the components of globalization, a phenomenon that is the basis for the European Union and the sudden evolution of Romania in the recent years. Romania was integrated in the globalization process and took advantage of all the benefits of this engine of the modern world. The result lies in a better understanding of EU policies and its effects on the Romanian economy. In this paper we have achieved an analysis of non-refundable grants offered by the European Union for the period 2007-20013 and how they helped the industrial and social development of Romania. The added value of the scientific interpretation of the Romanian situation at economic level is highlighted by the beneficial influence of the European space, opening towards a global market and the original approach in economic terms of the development analysis and participation in the globalization process.

The present paper deals with the relationship between GDP, FDI and merchandise exports using a vector error-correction model (VECM). The empirical model is based on quarterly data for the period 2005-2014 in Romania. The Granger causality test indicate a positive significant bidirectional relationship and between FDI and GDP and a unidirectional relationship between GDP and exports. The variance decomposition indicates that more than 50% of the fluctuations in FDI are explained by the shocks in GDP, while the influence of shocks in exports is quite low. Fluctuations in GDP are largely explained by the shocks occurring in this variable. As regards exports, 44% of fluctuations are due to FDI, while the impact of GDP reaches 13-15% after 10 quarters.

This article examines the evolution of statistical data (in this case GDP) from their temporarily character to the final one. It has highlighted a number of inconsistencies or opposite evolutions which implies that the use of statistical data not definitive may lead to erroneous conclusions.

One of the current priority objectives for Romania is the integration into euro zone. To achieve this objective, Romania must record progress on economic growth. Various empirical studies have analyzed the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth to see whether investment flows positively influence the economic development. The results revealed that positive connection depends on certain features of the economy at a time. The purpose of this research is to highlight the impact of the FDIs on the Romanian economic development because the debates on capital flows, both in the political and academic environment, associate these flows with a number of benefits for beneficiary states. In order to fulfill the objective of this research is analyzed, mainly, the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross domestic product (GDP).

In May 2018, INSEE decided to integrate the drug economy into the calculation of GDP. This reform is part of a larger project aimed at comparing national territories within the EU as well as regional territories (and / or metropolises) within countries. However, it poses serious methodological problems both for the collection of data and their interpretation. Moreover, it does not bring any significant clarification progress on the real questions raised for years by the GDP indicator.

This article analyses the most important social and economic consequences of the parliamentary coup which occurred in Brazil in 2015-16. It first exposes the economic situation before the coup, and then further evolutions with a specific focus on the strong economic crisis that affected a country confronted with the most important recession in its history. Political instability has dramatic consequences for several economic indicators (GDP growth rate, investment rate), and on several social indicators such as the unemployment rate (with more than 13 million people without jobs). At the same time, governmental social spending has been significantly cut, income is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and poverty is expanding at a higher level than in 2009, when the country was suffering from the world economic crisis.

The real estate market has an important impact on social and economic development of a country, and it involves many aspects which increase the complexity of the impact analysis and often have opposite directions. This can be supported by the fact that real estate is one of the most important items in public spending3, but also in investment expenses in general (this is especially typical for Albania). These expenses are mainly related to infrastructure and accommodation of homeless people by the National Housing Entity. Researchers have studied the relation between the price of real estates with the GDP of a country, concluding that real estate prices and the government policies related to them, do impact the GDP growth, and movements in residential prices can be used to forecast GDP growth. On the other hand, when purchasing a home, individuals use all their savings, or take loans, which constantly cause the reduction of consumption and saving possibilities in order to afford the installments and other loan expenses. So, from this point of view, this investment may have an adverse effect, even on GDP. But, the question we raise in this study is: what impact has the real estate market in Albanian economy? We begin the study by emphasizing the importance of the real estate market, and then we identify key developments related to this market’s financing, price developments and the construction activity, as an important part of the market itself. The study is concluded with a regression analysis on the role the real estate market plays in the Albanian economy.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a useful tool for international comparison of prices between countries, in order to analyze the degree of economic development. On this line, purchasing power parities are indicators that express the main macroeconomic aggregates, in a common currency for all the countries subject to international comparisons. This material analyzes the evolution of PPP in Romania for a time interval of 10 years (2004-2013). The purpose of research is to analyze the purchasing power at national level, in the context of integration in European Union (EU). The period before and after Romania’s integration in the EU, has an important role to establish the positioning of our country in terms of purchasing power, compared to the other EU countries. The main conclusion of the paper is that Romania is the country with one of the lowest purchasing power parities compared to other EU countries, along with Bulgaria, which joined the EU in the same year (2007). Given that PPP cannot establish a hierarchy of countries, the research takes into account other important indicators such as: Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices, GDP and inflation rate.

In this study, it was analyzed if there was causal relationship among the current deficit, short term capital flows and economic growth in emerging markets. Before causality test was done, CDLM tests were done in order to the fact that to be able to determine if there was cross section dependence in countries form the panel. At the end of CDLM tests cross section dependence in emerging markets form the panel was determined. Then, panel causality test developed was done. According to the result of panel causality test bidirectional causality between current account deficit and GDP, unidirectional causality from short term capital flows to current deficit and GDP were determined.

Improving the degree of public health is increase government expenditure on the health sector. The study aims to analyse environmental degradation, demographic and economic factors on government expenditure in health. The analytical tools used in this study are multiple regression. The results showed that increased government spending on the health sector caused by demographic factors that are increasing the number of elderly people and environmental factors, namely CO2 gas emissions.

This paper examines the impact of oil price movements on real output growth in Nigeria during the period 1970 to 2011 making use of annual time series data. The empirical analysis rests on dynamic VAR analytical framework. To capture the possible channels reflecting the fluctuations in the oil prices, the model includes money supply, real exchange rate, government spending and inflation. Our findings indicate the lagged effects of the VAR model are not able to capture any significant impact of changes in oil prices, and oil price shocks are therefore not found to contribute directly to output, exchange rate or inflation in the short run but show a positive significant relationship to output growth in the long run. Following the VAR model results, the generalized impulse responses reaffirm the direct link between the net oil price shock and growth, as well as the indirect linkages.

In this study, countries were analyzed between 1990 and 2011 in order to determine whether a causal relationship exists among current account deficit, GDP, foreign direct investment, and total credits of G7. Analysis took into account the cross-sectional dependence and was applied to test the causality among the variables form the panel. Firstly, panel unit root tests were used for determining stationary of variables. As a result of the panel unit root tests, it was found that GDP and foreign direct investment have a stationary structure and that total credits and current account deficit contain unit root. In order to see whether there is a long-term relationship among the variables or not, the panel co-integration test was used. As a result of the test, it was concluded that there is a co-integration relationship among the series. The possibility of a causal relationship was analyzed among the variables using the causality test developed by Elena Ivona Dumitrescu and Christophe Hurlin (2012). Results of the analysis showed a unidirectional causal relationship from current account deficit and foreign direct investment to GDP. Bidirectional causality was found between current account deficit and total credits. Finally, a unidirectional relationship was found from foreign direct investment to current account deficit and total credits.

The economic environment must be parsed because of the multitude of phenomena that determine developments which generate effects and show sinuous ridges that can be interpreted differed depending on the context. Tourism is an important sector of the economy, and the evolution must be analyzed through the signification of a set of specific indicators. However, there are common indicators for all the areas of activity which are relevant both for industry and for the country's economic level. Thus, the analysis of the achieved turnover by the most successful travel agencies in conjunction with the evolution of gross domestic product per capita is important and highlights significant elements for the future forecasts, and analysis of the business environment in this area. The time period under analysis should be long enough so that the valuable judgments are issued from the normal not random trend of the indicators.

This article presents estimates of social and economic indicators for Italy and its regions, from1871 to 2001: life expectancy, education (literacy and years of schooling), per capita Gdp, and the humandevelopment index. I discuss State intervention in promoting convergence and argue that this was moreeffective in life expectancy, important but inadequate in education, more expensive and less successful inGdp. In human development, convergence took place from the late nineteenth century until the 1970s, thensignificantly slowed down. A broad interpretative hypothesis, based on the distinction between passive andactive modernization, is proposed to account for the patterns.

As an engine for economic development of CEE countries, FDI inflows have contributed to creating new jobs and access to modern technologies; have had positive effects on balance of payments and state budget revenues. The purpose of this article is to highlight the implications of international financial and economic crisis of 2007 on FDI in CEE countries. Also, we realized a comparative approach of the factors that influence investors’ decisions in Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and a SWOT analysis of FDI in Romania at the end of 2009. The second part of the article represents an econometric analysis using SPSS of FDI impact on GDP and unemployment rate on the example of Romanian economy during 1991-2009. The fundamental hypothesis of econometric analysis is the following: it is a direct link between FDI and GDP, respectively, an inverse link between FDI and unemployment rate.

In this paper, the relationship between international crude oil prices and GDP growth in Turkey was studied for 1987-2007 period. Crude oil prices with reference to the study,. Include annual average data. GDP data was obtained from Central Bank of Turkish as US dolar. With a view to display cointegration relationship between the data, Angle Granger and Johansen methods were applied. Notwithstanding, the results were inquired with VAR method. In the meanwhile; Dickey Fuller, Unit Root and Modified Akaike tests were executed too. Crude oil prices volatility effects on GDP growth, and also affect in question has appeared especially as from the second period (1997-2007).

It is ten years after Lisbon and in the year dedicated to poverty alleviation that this paper is written in order to investigate the implications of the decisions regarding poverty reduction taken by the EU. We present a simple comparison of the risks of poverty in European countries in 2000 and 2008, before and after transfers, and our finding is a positive effect of the policies towards poverty alleviation, even if the risk of poverty is increasing. By studying the correlation between percentage of people that fall below the poverty line and GDP per capita, we do not observe a whole diverse situation in Europe, with only few minor differences between rich and poor countries. We also discuss the importance of alternative approaches in estimating poverty, by means of a multidimensional method which considers a multitude of aspects in the quality of life.

The main goal of the paper is to investigate relation between economic development and energy consumption in Croatia. This paper examines the casual relationship, using Granger test, between gross domestic products (GDP) and total primary energy consumption in Croatia. Analyzed period is from 1953 to 2005. In the paper vector auto-regression model (VAR), Granger causality test and unit root test are used as tools for analysis. Economic and energetic time series usually have the problem of non stationarity series. Non-stationary time series are trying stationarity with differentiation of variables, using co-integration technique. Applying Granger’s causality test in Croatian case, we found that GDP Granger causes total energy consumption not energy consumption Granger causes GDP. The result shows that relationship for Croatia runs from total primary energy consumptions to gross domestic products, not from gross domestic products to primary energy consumption. Conclusion of VAR model is that variable total primary energy consumptions and the constant are not significant in the model and that variable gross domestic products is significant. Base conclusion of the paper is that VAR model evaluation shows that change of GDP of 1% in period t-1 would affect the annual total primary energy consumption for 0,509% in period t.