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Bearings, as a component in many complex weapons, can be used to reduce friction to improve the efficiency of equipment. Bearing CV value can quantify the working performance of bearings, which can act as a reference standard for staff to evaluate the working condition of bearings. According to the known data, the real CV value of the bearing is calculated in this paper. In order to improve the smoothing ratio, the data is processed by the idea of data transformation and the background value is optimized by the new formula. The two improve the GM (1,1) model and simulate the predicted bearing CV and calculate the moment of failure by this model, which is compared with the traditional GM (1,1) and the improved GM (1,1) by cumulative method in terms of error and accuracy. It is verified that the average relative error and the model prediction accuracy of the model prediction life are 0.0185 and 98.15% respectively after the improvement of the stability and background value. Therefore, this method has certain practical value in engineering, and is more effective than the cumulative GM (1,1) model.