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The expected thaw depth of the foundation soil is one of the parameters influencing the selection of technical solutions of road design in the permafrost area. The purpose of this research is a quantitative assessment of the degree of influence of air temperature on thaw depth of the road foundation soil in the permafrost area. A standard formula to calculate thaw depth of melting bodies of flat symmetry obtained through a solution of the one phase Stefan problem at boundary conditions of the first kind was used for the analysis. An algorithm using an analytical formula to assess the influence of the main initial parameters and accuracy of their determination on the resulting value, the thaw depth of the soil, is proposed. The results of the calculations are presented in a graphical form displaying the influence of average air temperature and the accuracy of its setting on the thaw depth of the road foundation soil. It was determined that the degree of change in thaw depth is non-linear and depends on both the average air temperature and on the accuracy with which it is set. For every average air temperature value there is a specific measure of required accuracy for thermal calculations so that the error of thaw depth determination does not exceed the permitted error. A 3D chart showing the expected percentage error in thaw depth forecasting depending on the average air temperature and the accuracy of its setting for an array of initial values was created.