1. Oil threshold value between oil price and production
- Author
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Yang Tzu-Yi, Thanh Ha Thieu Thi, and Yen Chia-Wei
- Subjects
panel smooth transition regression (pstr) model ,threshold effects ,crude oil prices ,crude oil production ,nonlinear relationship ,Economic theory. Demography ,HB1-3840 - Abstract
This study proposes a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to investigate the nonlinear relationship between crude oil prices and crude oil production in 122 countries, both OPEC and non-OPEC, from March 1994 to October 2015. The statistical test for the existence of a threshold effect indicates that the relationship between oil prices and oil production is nonlinear, with different changes over time among the oil price and transition variables. Additionally, a threshold value exists. Furthermore, crude oil price volatility exhibits asymmetric responses to production volatility by fluctuating above or below the threshold value. Finally, when crude oil price volatility with a lag of two periods exceeds the threshold value, crude oil production changes have a positive impact on crude oil price volatility. In contrast, when crude oil price volatility with a lag of two periods is less than the threshold value, crude oil production changes have a negative impact on price volatility.
- Published
- 2019
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