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This paper investigates the importance of financial intermediation sector in the inter-industry context, using input-output tables from 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. Known as matrix triangulation problem, the problem was mathematically categorized as NP-Hard where exact solution to real-world data cannot be ascertained. The algorithm used in this paper was proposed by Chanas-Kobylanski. The computation results confirm that the financial intermediation sector is consistently among the most important sector in the production structure of the Indonesian economy by serving non-negligible input to most sectors inthe economy. This paper shows that the sector has mixed record toward small-scale businesses. Financial intermediation sector supports directly and indirectly retail trade, agricultural and food-beverages sectors. The relatively large share of input from financial sector implies the high interest rate charged by banks to the retail trade sector, which in turn reflects high risk associated with Retail Trade (and SMEs in general). Thus tightening and improving efficiency between financial intermediation and retail trade sector will not only increase SMEs participation in the economy but also improve the economic activities in the agricultural and food-beverages sectors which combined contributes to around 19 percent of Indonesia’s GDP.

This paper analyzes the asset securitization as a source of financing for small and medium scale enterprise. We use field survey and focus group discussion in Jabodetabek, Bandung, Yogyakarta, Denpasar, Medan, and Banjarmasin, covering 149 samples in total. This paper found the banks generally are in excess liquidity condition, therefore face difficulty on obtaining the minimum of Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). For this reason, those banks are not interested to sell the SME’s loan though they are quite interested on the asset securitization concept. For the banks, the major motive to invest in asset securitization program is a high yield. In addition, they expect this portfolio to increase the LDR. Prior the implementation of this program, this paper underlines the necessity to overcome some obstacles including non-bankable SME’s, liquidity and human resource of the banks, and limited information of the asset securitazion program (EBA-UMKM). Keywords: asset securitization, SME’s, banking . JEL Classification: D24, L6, E32

This paper analyzes the non-performing loan and its determinant. Using the monthly data of Islamic banks during 2010-2012, this paper found that size and efficiency of the banks do not affect the non-performing loan. On the other hand, GDP and inflation negatively affect the non-performing loan, while the liquidity of the bank positively affects the non-performing loan. The liquidity of also does not mediate the relationship between the size of the bank, their efficiency, the GDP and the inflation to the non-performing loan. Keywords: non-performing loan, liquidity, bank size, efficiency, sobel test, Islamic bank. JEL Classification: C12, G21

This paper measures the insolvency risk of bank in Indonesia. We apply Merton model to identify the probability of defaul tover 30 banks during the period of 2002-2013. This paper also identify role of financial linkage a cross banks on transmitting from one bank to another; which enable us to assess if the risk is systemic or not. The results showed the larger total asset of the bank, the larger they contribute to systemic risk. Keywords : Conditional Value at Risk; Probability of Default; systemic risk and financial linkages;Value at Risk.JEL Classification: D81, G21, G33

The outcome of Regional Free Trade Area (R-FTA) still remains a conundrum. Regional free trade area (R-FTA) is one of the manifestations of the economy integration phenomenon. R-FTA brings many pros and cons to the economists. It allows better allocation of resources especially by eliminating tariffs, thus making people have higher purchasing power for goods. While the increase of purchasing power is good for growth engine and poverty alleviation progress, this paper proves that there is potency for the agreement to be detrimental in the long run.The main focus in this paper is the potential impact of ACFTA to the saving rate as the shock buffer for the poor in time of recessions and crises, where purchasing power decreases significantly. We view the ACFTA impact through the series of net import, defined as the difference between imports from export. We use Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) to estimate the impact of net import to the saving rate, assuming that there is a dynamic relationship between saving rate and its lagged value. The estimation result proves that there is a negative relationship between import and the saving per capita, which indicates the consumptive behavior of ASEAN people under high import. Moreover, the dynamic relationship shows that saving per capita is not persistent, meaning that the saving rate will be decreased gradually.Therefore, we can expect that in the long rung, the savings will be depleted into nothing if we keep letting the import flooded domestic market without imposing any pre-emptive and reactive policies. This paper provides a set of historical estimation of the potential impact of ACFTA on saving rate and its policy implication to endure the impact.JEL Classification Code: E38, F15Keywords: Free Trade, Poverty Alleviation, Saving Behavior

Indonesia has involved in quite many regional trade agreements, since more than a decade ago. Theoritically, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are very beneficial to the countries, as resources are more efficiently allocated due to production specialization. However, presence of asymmetric information, market inefficiency, and economic distortion in the real world have led to a deviation of FTAs benefits from its theoritical framework. This paper studies whether Indonesian export competitiveness is improving after Indonesia involves in ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) and ASEAN-Cina Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Export competitiveness are measured by some trade indicators, such as: trade intensity index, market share, export product dynamics, and RCA, for some Indonesian main export products. The indices are compared across ASEAN countries and Cina to reveal: (i) which products are gaining or losingcompetitiveness in ASEAN and Cina markets; and (ii) which countries are becoming Indonesian main competitors in ASEAN and Cina markets. Additionally, this paper ends up with some policy recommendations that Indonesia should undertake to improve competitiveness of its products in ASEAN and Cina markets.JEL Classification: R11, F16Keywords: FTA, export competitiveness, Indonesia

This paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon in Indonesian labor market. Labor shifting phenomenon in developing countries, including Indonesia, is considered to be the reason of stable movement from the supply perspective. By using Sakernas data year 1998-2008, this paper analyzes the labor shifting phenomenon, both the direction of labor movement and the characteristics of the shifting labor.The main conclusions obtained in this research are, first, there is no structural break in Indonesian labor market. Second, although most of labors tend to remain in the same sector or intra-sector, the analysis shows there is tendency for the labor to move from non formal sectors especially to Agricultural and Trade sectors. Third, the model estimation result with a series of controlled category shows the biggest three probability of not shifting and remaining in the same sectors are in Electricity sector (70,15%), Financial sector (55,8%) and Mining sector (53,13%). On the other side, the biggest labor mobility opportunity to conduct shifting is on Industry sector (80.14%), Construction sector (64.3%), and Transportation sector (62.4%).JEL classification: J23, J62, J64Keywords: Demand for Labor, Job Mobility, Labor shifting, Unemployment

The mutual fund is a fast growing, flexible and sizely attainable product, hence make it as favourable choice for the investors. As in other developing countries, however, the management of the fund invested in mutual fund is done by pointed fund manager. This paper raises and answers the question of how efficient the fund management is. This paper ustilizes the decomposition return model on the monthly data set from 2002-2006 in Indonesia. The model derived, enable us to trace and decompose the management performance into (i) the allocation policy skill, (ii) the security selection skill and (iii) the market timing strategy or the tactical asset allocation abilty.The model estimation result shows significant management capabilities on allocating the fund into suitable asset class. We record that the best asset allocation policy was on February 2002, June 2004, August 2004 and February 2006. Inline with this, another result shows the negatif contribution of the short term-tactical asset allocation as conformed by several previous studies; Treynor-Mazuy (1996), Wardhani (2003), and Henriksson (1984) among others. There is an exception for February 2006 where a successful market timing strategy contributed an additional 7.34% return. The security selection strategy is confirmed to have a positive and significant impact on the mutual fund performance. During the observation period, the best security selection strategy was achieved on February, March and July 2002, September 2003, and March, October, and December 2005. For these certain period, the security selection activities gave more than 2% additional monthly return.The policy implication is straightforward; a more intensively monitoring on the implementation of the planned asset allocation to give a safer financial investment environment for the investors. This paper also suggest the investment manager to provide a sufficient information about the portfolio’s risk profile. Our quantitative description has shown a large varieties both on return and risk across the mutual fund manager showing their varied risk taking behaviour, on which the investor has a right to know.JEL Classification: H54, G11, G31, O16Keywords: Mutual fund, asset allocation, security selection, market timing, period specific estimation, financial investment

This paper investigates the nexus among employment, labor productivity and trade openness in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS), and Indonesia using annual data (1991–2018). The results suggest a long-run relationship among the variables but only in the agricultural sector of these economies. We also find a unidirectional causality running from employment to productivity in only the agricultural sector. Similarly, trade openness also Granger causes employment. Our final result indicates that trade openness positively influences labor productivity in the long-run. From a policy perspective, it is imperative for BRICS and Indonesia to target employment generation by promoting trade openness.

This paper investigates the role of financial technology (FinTech) in propelling economic growth in Indonesia from 1998 to 2018. The FinTech industry employs a technology-based business model to provide financial services, including lending, payment, investment, and financing services. The study is motivated by endogenous growth theory, which seeks to explain technology as the most important driver of economic growth. The study finds that FinTech startups are positively correlated with Indonesia’s economic growth. FinTech firms in their first year are found to be disruptive, but they fail to have serious consequences on Indonesia’s economic growth; however, they seem to significantly encourage economic growth in their second year. These findings are derived after accounting for other important growth determinants, namely, capital per labor, foreign direct investment (FDI), stock market development, and trade openness

Using the difference-in-differences (DID) model and taking the sample of companies listed from 2009 to 2014 on the Growth Enterprises Market (GEM) of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China, this paper studies the impact of Venture Capital (VC) participation on board characteristics, which is measured by the chief executive officer (CEO) duality, the scale of the board of directors and the proportion of independent directors, and it also studies how the board characteristics influence the company performance. The findings are as follows: VC-backed GEM listed companies are more inclined to choose the mode of CEO duality and to have a larger board of directors and a higher proportion of independent directors, all of which are conducive to improving company performance.

This paper analyses the demand for three important financial assets (i.e. demand deposits) in Indonesia: demand deposits, saving deposits and time deposits. We use a system-wide approach to consumption economics to perform the analysis in the long and short run. The estimation results reveal that a) generally, the wealth elasticity for saving deposits is above one, for time deposits is below one, and for demand deposits it varies from 0.5 (in the short-run) to 1.1 (in the long-run); b) the own interest rate coefficients are statistically significant and positive, as expected; and c) in the long run, while the assets of demand deposits and time deposits and saving deposits and time deposits are pairwise subsitutes, the assets of demand deposits and saving deposits are pairwise complements.

This paper analyze Nonperforming Loan ratio to total credit (NPL), as a proxy for credit risk, for five major economic sectors by utilizing panel data of 117 commercial banks in Indonesia over period 2000Q1 to 2016Q3. Our empirical analysis shows that real economic growth is the main driver that is negatively correlated with credit risks in all sectors. The inverse relation is also found in commodity and housing price. Commodity price inflation affects NPL in manufacturing industry and trade sectors, meanwhile housing price inflation influences NPL in manufacturing industry, trade, and construction sectors. In addition, decreased in policy rate will decline credit risk in commodity, trade, and other sectors, meanwhile nominal exchange rate only affects credit risks in the other sector. Our assessment shows that credit risks in commodity and other sectors are more sensitive to real economic growth than those on manufacturing industry and trade sectors. Real economic growth elasticities to credit risk for commodity and other sectors are almost twice higher than for manufacturing industry and trade sectors. Thus, during economic contraction phase, NPL in commodity and other sectors will increase higher than NPL in manufacturing industry and trade sectors.

The previous financial crisis has revealed the importance of risk in the financial and business cycle within the economy. This paper examines relationship among three cycles in the economy, namely (i) business cycle macro risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and their impacts toward individual bank performance. We examine the responses of individual bank credit cycle and risk cycle toward a shock in business cycle macro risk and its consequence to the bank performance. We use Indonesian data for period of 2005q1 to 2014q4. We use unbalanced panel data of individual banks’ balance sheet with Panel Vector Autoregressive approach based on GMM style estimation by implementing PVAR package developed by Abrigo and Love (2015). The result shows dynamic relationship between business cycle macro risk and financial risk cycles. The study also observes prominent role of risk cycles in driving bank performance. We also show the existence of financial accelerator phenomenon in Indonesian banking system, in which financial cycles precede the business cycle macro risk.

This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment inflow, export and economic growth in Indonesia in a dynamic framework. We uses vector error correction model to estimate the causal relationship between FDI, exports and GDP. The findings in Indonesia’s case verify the proposition that FDI plays an important role which, in turn, together with joint FDI-exports can promote economic growth in the immediate short run and improve the competitiveness for Indonesia’s commodity exports. Nonetheless, the absence and existence of economic growth effects to FDI and exports respectively indicate that Indonesia still has several domestic economic constraints. It denotes that Indonesia’s economic structure is still transforming and far from adequate. Indonesia needs bold policies in order to accelerateits economic growth and further integrate trade chains for reducing domestic economic restrictions and improving Indonesia’s degree of competitiveness.

This paper computes and analyzes the degree of financial inclusion and the inclusive growth in Indonesia. Using provincial data, we calculate the Index of Financial Inclusion (IFI) based on the accessibility, the availability, and the usage of the financial services. On the other hand, the Index of Inclusive Growth (IIG) is developed through the method of social opportunity function by increasing the average level and equity index of opportunities. The result shows that the financial inclusion in Indonesia is largely determined by the accessibility, while the availability and the usage play only small portion. This leads to a conclusion that the group of the poor is limited on using the financial services. Furthermore, we use social opportunity function to measure the inclusive growth, and find a positive correlation with the financial inclusion. These findings call the attention from regulators to push the financial sector to extend their services further beyond their existing market target

Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks’ vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government’s program, such as small enterprise loans. Keywords : expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk. JEL Classification : D81, G210

Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks’ vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government’s program, such as small enterprise loans. Keywords : expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk. JEL Classification : D81, G210

This paper attempts to provide evidence whether or not the unification of regulatory institutions for different types of financial sector creates challenges for financial stability. From a sample of 91 countries that provide data on the financial unification index and the central bank involvement index, the empirical results reveal that higher financial unification index or the convergence toward a single supervisory institution outside the central bank, in order to control three different sectors (banking, insurance, and securities), is detrimental for financial stability. However, this finding only holds for developed countries, but dissapears for less developed countries. In parallel, the central bank involvement in financial sector supervision has no impact on financial stability in both developed and less developed countries. Keywords: Supervisory Regimes, Financial Sectors, Financial Stability JEL Classification: G18, G21, G28

This paper analyzed the regional characteristic and the output growth. Using panel data analysis on 33 provinces in Indonesia, the result shows that the labor growth and net export positively affect the output growth. Surprisingly, the inflation and human capital were found to be insignificant on output growth. Keyword : economic growth, panel data, regional characteristicsJEL Classification: O47, C23, R11

Governance has gone through radical changes over the last twenty five years.Seemingly, it became one of the important strategies, processes, methods and mechanisms in governing countries to achieve economic development goals. The objective of this paper is to observe the local economic governance dynamics in the case of districts/municipalities in Indonesia. First, the dynamics behavior of local governance over time is analyzed by visual inspection of their non-parametric density distribution. More deeply, we use Markov chains to predict a pattern of change in local economic governance toward its steady state. Based on comparison between 2007 and 2011 data delivered by Commission of Regional Autonomy Implementation Watch, we conclude that there is a high level of persistence in the relative position of local governance index, consistent with a low degree of mobility in the index distribution implying the implementation of governance in the districts/municipalities in Indonesia is weak enough. This finding implies that the local economic governance is a key to achieve sustainable regional economic growth in line with fiscal decentralization and regional autonomy.Keywords : Local Economic Governance, Decentralization, Regional Economic Growth, Kernel Densities, Markov ChainsJEL Classification: H70, O43, O56

Few large banks dominate the Indonesia banking industri. Furthermore, in the past ten years, there were a series of mergers and acquisitions in the banking market. The facts cause implications on competition. In this paper, we examine these issues exploiting an unconsolidated annual financial report of all commercial banks between 2001 and 2009. The Panzar-Rose method is employed to examine the banks behavior in competition. Estimates indicate that banks in all three subsamples, large; medium-sized and small are working in a monopolistically competitive market. The analysis of market concentration supports the conventional view that concentration impairs competition. The study shows that the most competitive market was the medium-sized banks because it was least concentrated. In contrast, the large market was more concentrated thus it was less competitive. The consolidation policies driven by the Central Bank reduced market concentration because mergers and acquisitions were mostly conducted by the mediumsized and small banks. Further the improvement of market share distribution and the increasing capacity of the merging banks enhanced competition in the Indonesia banking industry. JEL Classification: D43, G21Keywords: Banking, market competition, market structure

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.

1 Penulis adalah peneliti pada Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan Bank Indonesia, ascarya@bi.go.id The lack of the profit and loss sharing (PLS) financing or the domination of the Non-PLS financing, especially murabahah, is a global phenomenon in Islamic banks everywhere. This paper analyses the problem in Indonesia using Analytic Network Process (ANP) methodology, preceeded with a focus group discussion (FGD) and an indepth interview with scholars and practitioners of Islamic banking to fully understand the problem and to develop an appropriate ANP network. The cause of this problem can be grouped into four aspects, namely 1) internal of the Islamic bank; 2) customer; 3) regulation; and 4) government and other institutions. This research finds that the cause of the lack of PLS financing of Islamic banks in Indonesia can be summed up into two main causes from internal and regulation aspects, namely the lack of understanding and quality of human resource (Islamic bankers) and the lack of supportive regulations. The suggested solution is to increase the understanding and the quality of human resource by setting the minimum budget for training and education, implementing the insentive or subsidy system, setting the minimum standard for managers of Islamic banks through periodical fit and proper test, conducting training for short term needs, and encouraging the establishment of Islamic economic and banking education institutions for long term needs. Other suggested solution is to give support through regulation by reviewing the non supporting regulation, such as the collectibility classification of PLS financing, and developing incentive system to increase PLS financing. Moreover, the most effective policy strategy to overcome the problems of Islamic banks is by implementing directed market driven strategy, where policies are intended to direct the development of Islamic banks to stay on its syariah tracks towards the desired development goals. JEL: C49, E58, G21, L22

This paper establishes an analytical model of the banking liquidity management behavior based on microeconomic theory. We include the exchange rate as one of an important factor on the banking liqudity management behavior. In addition, we examine the impact of bank’s capital condition (flexible and fixed) on the banking liquidity management behavior. Inculding these two factors provide a better model in explaining the actual banking liquidity management behavior.The callibrated model is applicable on analyzing the effectiveness of the monetary policy, distinguishing the bank category and analyzing the impact of the monetary policy, simulating the impact of the monetary policy or simulating the impact of the bank regulatory. However, the model is still in the static framework model, and we leave the dynamic specification as further research.Keyword: portfolio bank, nilai tukar, modal bankJEL: G21, C61, E44