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Perguruan tinggi sangat memperhatikan penerimaan mahasiswa baru sebagai indikator kemajuan dan pertumbuhan institusi. Namun, fluktuasi jumlah penerimaan mahasiswa baru dapat menjadi kendala dalam perencanaan dan pengambilan keputusan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menerapkan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam menghitung prediksi jumlah mahasiswa baru pada Universitas Papua. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA untuk meramalkan jumlah mahasiswa baru tahun 2023 dengan memanfaatkan data historis dari tahun 2017 hingga 2022. Hasil analisis menggunakan R Studio menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik adalah ARIMA (11,0,12) dengan nilai error terendah. Penelitian ini memberikan manfaat bagi peneliti dalam memahami metode peramalan menggunakan ARIMA dan juga memberikan informasi yang berguna bagi Universitas Papua dalam perencanaan strategis untuk meningkatkan kualitas dan minat calon mahasiswa baru. Universities pay great attention to the acceptance of new students as an indicator of the progress and growth of the institution. However, fluctuations in the number of new student admissions can be an obstacle in planning and decision making. This study aims to apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method in calculating predictions for the number of new students at the University of Papua. Therefore, this study uses the ARIMA method to predict the number of new students in 2023 by utilizing historical data from 2017 to 2022. The results of the analysis using R Studio show that the best model is ARIMA (11,0,12) with the lowest error value. This research provides benefits for researchers in understanding forecasting methods using ARIMA and also provides useful information for the University of Papua in strategic planning to improve the quality and interest of prospective new students.

This study is motivated by the actual conditions for the drinking water supply system in Patumbak District which has been served by PDAM Tirta Deli as the manager of drinking water in Deli Serdang Regency, and partially served by PDAM Tirtanadi, but the service coverage is still low at 30.33%. The purpose of this research is to study the Feasibility of Economic and Financial Investment in the development of drinking water supply systems. The data processing technique in this study is to use a monte carlo simulation technique. This Monte Carlo simulation is run through an application program, namely the R Studio program which will estimate the profit of a SPAM company for the next 20 years.. Based on the results of calculations and analysis, it can be concluded that from the analysis of economic and financial aspects the results are: NPV IDR 12,659,105,099 (> 0), IRR 14.58% (> 12%), Net B/C Ratio 2.796 (> 1). Results The average NPV value based on the Monte Carlo simulation results with R Studio is IDR 1,060,115,259 and from the analysis of the financial aspects the results are: The NPV value is IDR 25,994,551 (> 0), IRR 9.48 % (> 9.20 %), Net B/C Ratio 1.03 (> 1), PP 9th year, BEP 0. So it can be concluded that SPAM Development Investment IKK Patumbak in Deli Serdang Regency is said to be FEATURED economically and financially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]