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書写用の紙は2世紀初め洛陽で考案された。その理由を通説はこういう。当時の人びとが重くかさばる不便な竹簡に替わるより便利な書写材を追求した結果，紙が開発された，と。しかし竹簡の不便の表白は紙という便利な書写材を入手して以降の文献に限られる。そもそも竹簡の使用歴は過去千年以上あったにもかかわらず，なぜ2世紀になって新たな書写材が考案されたのか，通説では説明できない。小論は，気候変動による竹材供給の不安定が紙開発の動機であったと考える。竹は高温多湿をこのむ植物である。殷周時代は非常に温暖湿潤で華北でも竹は潤沢に生えていた。しかし六朝時代の小氷期に向かって華北の気候は寒冷乾燥へ変化していった。いきおい中原の竹は衰退していったと推される。竹材は不足がちになり，その状況があらたな書写材の開発をうながしたのではないか。その結論が紙であったと思うのである。

The year 2008 is halfway to the deadline for reaching the Millennium Development Goals. Despite some progress, they will not be achieved if current trends continue. Aid promises are predicted to be missed by $30bn, at a potential cost of 5 million lives. Starting with the G8 meeting in Japan, rich countries must use a series of high-profile summits in 2008 to make sure the Goals are met, and to tackle both climate change and the current food crisis. Economic woes must not be used as excuses: rich countries' credibility is on the line.

Climate change is forcing vulnerable communities in poor countries to adapt to unprecedented climate stress. Rich countries, primarily responsible for creating the problem, must stop harming, by fast cutting their greenhouse-gas emissions, and start helping, by providing finance for adaptation. In developing countries Oxfam estimates that adaptation will cost at least $50bn each year, and far more if global emissions are not cut rapidly. Urgent work is necessary to gain a more accurate picture of the costs to the poor. According to Oxfam's new Adaptation Financing Index, the USA, European Union, Japan, Canada, and Australia should contribute over 95 per cent of the finance needed. This finance must not be counted towards meeting the UN-agreed target of 0.7 per cent for aid. Rich countries are planning multi-billion dollar adaptation measures at home, but to date they have delivered just $48m to international funds for least-developed country adaptation, and have counted it as aid: an unacceptable inequity in global responses to climate change.

This paper introduces recent activity and discussion at the OECD on agriculture and the environment. The OECD plays a significant role in policy design related to agriculture and the environment as well as other important fields. At the OECD, the most recent and important issues are discussed among the 31 member countries based on analytical papers that are prepared by the Secretariat. In this study, after a quick reviewof the history of the OECD Joint Working Party on Agriculture and the Environment, the latest important themes are introduced. Recently, in addition to the collection of information for a cross-country comparative analysis, the OECD started to work on economic （quantitative） policy analysis in order to dispatch policymessages. Understanding and following the discussion not only allows us to grasp the pressing short- and longterm policy issues faced by developed countries, but also provides a vital starting point for research conducted by agricultural economists and scientists.

本稿はアメリカ証券取引委員会(SEC)によって2010年2月8日に解釈通達された「気候変動関連開示に関する委員会指針」を評価している。本稿では, まず, この解釈通達の背景, 目的, 気候変動問題の開示規則, および解釈通達で示された気候変動開示の項目を検討し, 次に, 10-K様式に代表される公開会社のSEC開示書類での適切な気候変動関連開示を議論し, 最後に, 4つのアメリカ大企業の10-K様式での気候変動関連開示を検討している。解釈通達は公開会社の気候変動関連開示を既存の規則の要請を満たすよう支援することが期待されている。しかし, 公開企業の気候変動関連情報開示の程度は経営判断にゆだねられている。(英文) This paper critically evaluates the interpretive release ("Release") entitled "Commission Guidance Regarding Disclosure Related to Climate Change" on February 8, 2010 published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). In this paper, firstly, the main background and the purpose of this Release, the rules requiring disclosure of climate change issues, and the topics of climate change disclosure which are described in the Release are reviewed. Secondly, the appropriate manner of the disclosure related to climate change in public company disclosure documents filed with the SEC represented by Form 10-K is discussed. Finally, the disclosures relating to climate change (Form 10-K) filed by the four largest American companies are examined. The Release is expected to assist public companies to satisfy the required disclosure related to climate change under the existing rules. However, the extent of information related to climate change disclosed by public companies remains a management decision on their part.

As climate change and various environmental pollution issues are becoming more serious, many countries are actively promoting energy transition. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, is aimed at curbing the rise in global average temperatures to within 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and limiting temperature rises to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. Taiwan is accelerating its path of energy transition to a "nuclear-free homeland" and “low-carbon economy” by phasing out all nuclear power generation in 2025 and imposing a legally binding goal of reducing coal-fired power generation from 47 percent to 26 percent. This paper investigates the impact of nuclear and coal power regulations on fuel mix CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 in Taiwan. Analysis is a future technology shift in the power sector called “Future Technology Transformations; FTT” for the power sector; Consider using the E3ME model linked to FTT: Power sub-model.

The heavy rainfall event in 2018 was an extraordinary widespread and long-lasting heavy rainfall and caused a big damage. In this paper, we analyzed the abnormality of the heavy rainfall event in July 2018 in terms of some spacio-temporal scale indices, "atmospheric pattern", "the amount of water vapor inflow", and "the accumulated precipitation amount", by comparing with the ensemble output of present and future climate experiments of climate model. As a result, the frequency of similar atmospheric pattern to that of the event in 2018 will not increase in the future climate. However , the amount of water vapor inflow will remarkably increase, moreover the accumulated precipitation of meso-β localized heavy rainfall, that could be a trigger of disaster like landslide or flooding, will also become more intense in the future climate. It is indicated that the frequency of similar widespread and long-lasting heavy rainfall may not increase but if the similar one occurs, the total rainfall amount is possibly increase and the disasters will also become more severe.

In this paper, I describe a history of indigenous salmon fishing technologies and management issues in the Upper Kuskokwim region, Alaska, U.S.A. As a traditional food, salmon has been an important part of culture for the Upper Kuskokwim Athabascan people. Intensive contacts with non-Natives in the early 20th century brought some changes to Upper Kuskokwim people’s subsistence technologies including fishwheels, which made it possible to obtain large amount of salmon efficiently in siltladen main streams of the Upper Kuskokwim tributaries. Conflicts with non-Native wildlife management regime began after Alaska’s statehood when the State banned salmon fishing technology which involves blocking the entire width of a river or stream. As a result, Upper Kuskokwim people were forced to abandon their fishing weirs and fences at Salmon River since the late 1960s. After a decade or so, subsistence salmon fishing with rods and reels resumed at Salmon River. Nowadays, Salmon River Culture Camp has been organized by Nikolai Village Council to revitalize their fishing traditions. Since the 2010s, severe decline of king salmon populations in Alaska and Yukon has become a serious issue in indigenous societies of the areas. Local people think that commercial fishing (including bycatch) in high sea negatively affects the king salmon populations, while some others point out that increased activities by beavers and low-level of water in interior rivers might have been causing disruption of salmon's upstream migration. Through my observation of people’s activities in salmon spawning areas, I argue that making a small opening to beaver dams (instead of totally destroying them) may actually benefit spawning salmon populations.

Climate change impact has recently attracted one of the most public attention because of frequent water-related disasters. While very heavy rainfall observed in several stations, moderate rainfall lasted long time on the whole at torrential rain in wide area of Kinki region in 2013 due to Typhoon "Man-yi" and that around Kinu River basin which caused a dike breach and vast inundation of Joso city in 2015. However, the very heavy rain but short duration caused unprecedented debris flow disasters at just upstream areas in Hiroshima 2014 and northern Kyushu 2017 rainfall disasters which killed many people but slight damage in downstream of their trunk rivers. This paper focuses on characteristics of spatially averaged extreme precipitation in future using "Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change" (d4PDF).

Concerning water-related disasters, heavy rains and debris flow disasters have beenincreasing (MLIT, 2008). Summary for Policymakers of IPCC AR5 says "… in manymid-latitude wet regions, mean precipitation will likely increase by the end of thiscentury under the RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events over most of the midlatitudeland masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intenseand more frequent by the end of this century, as global mean surface temperatureincreases" (IPCC, 2013). "Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future ClimateChange" (d4PDF) which is intended to be utilized for impact assessment studies andadaptation planning for global warming, is open to the public in 2016. It has manyensembles of 20 km regional climate model simulation over Japan. This paper showsextreme analysis on 3-day catchment averaged precipitation in the Tone River upstreamregion. It is found that it will increase about 100mm in future.

日本を含む東アジアでは，近年，樹木年輪幅の広域データベースや樹木年輪セルロースの酸素同位体比，或いは古日記の天候記録や古文書の気象災害記録などを広く用いて，過去2,000 年以上に亘って気温や降水量の変動を年単位で解明する，古気候復元の取り組みが進められている。その最新のデータ群を歴史史料や考古資料と詳細に比較することで，冷害や水害，干害といった気候災害に対して，過去の人々がどのように対応できたか（できなかったか）を，時代・地域ごとに詳細に明らかにできる可能性がある。近世・中世・古代のそれぞれの時代における，これまでの気温や降水量の復元結果からは，数十年の周期で夏の気温や降水量が大きく変動した際に，大きな飢饉や戦乱などが集中的に発生していたことが明らかとなってきた。このことは，地震や津波による災害を含めて数十年以上の間隔をおいて同じ種類の災害が再発する際に，つまり数十年間平穏な時期が続いた後に災害が起きる際に，社会の対応能力が低くなるという普遍的なメカニズムの存在を示唆する。本論ではさらに，古代から近世に至る歴史の時間・空間座標の中から，数十年以上の時間間隔をおいて大きく気候が変動した無数の事例を抽出して，気候災害の再発に際して社会の中のどのような要因が災害の被害を増幅（縮小）させたのかについて，普遍的に明らかにするための統計学的な研究の枠組みについて提案した。こうしたアプローチは，「高分解能古気候データからスタートする歴史研究」において初めて可能になる方法論であり，伝統的な歴史学・考古学の方法論を補強できる，新しい歴史研究の可能性を拓くものになるかもしれない。災害への社会の対応力を規定する要因が何であるのかは，現時点では結論は下せないが，中世や近世の事例は，特に「流通経済と地域社会の関係のあり方」が飢饉や戦乱の有無に深く影響することを示唆しており，関連するデータの収集が急がれる。, Past changes in temperature and precipitation during last two millennia are now being reconstructed in Japan and East Asia at annual time resolution using various paleoclimate proxies such as tree rings, including large scale database of tree ring width and tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope ratios, and literature records, covering diary weather descriptions and documentary climate disaster reports. By comparing those high resolution paleoclimate datasets with historical and archaeological evidences, it might be possible to elucidate how people in local societies of past periods reacted to climate disasters due to cold summer, severe flood or drought in detail. So far, reconstructed variations in summer temperature and precipitation during early modern, medieval and ancient ages have clarified apparent coincidences that multi-decadal variations in summer temperature and precipitation often underlain many large famines and/or warfare at the corresponding periods. This fact implies a universal mechanism that societies cannot successfully react to disasters, including earthquake and tsunami, which reoccurs after long pausing periods, more than multi-decades. In this paper, I proposed a statistical research strategy to elucidate what kinds of societal properties enhanced (reduced) people's damages owing to the disasters by extracting and analyzing of numerous historical examples on multi-decadal or longer time intervals of large climate changes and their societal consequences. This statistical approach to historical researches starting from high resolution paleoclimate data may develop a new possibility to strengthen traditional historical and archaeological methodologies. Although I cannot conclude now about the important factors determining degree of people's damages by the disasters, medieval and early modern examples suggest that relationships between distribution economy and local societies might have played key roles.

和文：2000年代に入ってから欧州を中心に再生可能エネルギーの急成長が始まった。特に欧州各国では、化石燃料の削減のみならず原子力発電への限界も見据えて、100％再生可能エネルギーに向けた歩みをすでに始めている。2011年の福島第一原発事故をきっかけに日本においても再生可能エネルギーへの転換が急速にすすみつつある。そこで本論文では、再生可能エネルギーの普及政策の中で特に固定価格買取制度（以下、FIT 制度）等の果たしてきた役割とその評価について、海外と国内を比較しつつ、国内での現状と今後の見通しを論じる。その上で、地域における 100％再生可能エネルギーへの展望として、最終的に将来目指すべき100％再生可能エネルギー地域への取組みと可能性を論じる。長期的な100％再生可能エネルギーの実現向けては、中長期的な導入目標の設定が重要だが、再生可能エネルギーに占める割合や温室効果ガス削減目標など、欧州各国では2020年までに30％を超える野心的な目標を掲げる国が多数ある。さらにドイツを中心に 100％自然エネルギー地域の実現のため取り組みが行われている。その際には、電気だけではなく、熱利用や輸送燃料についてもエネルギー効率化と再生可能エネルギーへの転換が重要である。一方、日本では2012年からのFIT制度の導入により太陽光発電を中心に急成長を始めたが、100％再生可能エネルギーに向けた動きとして福島県のビジョンやエネルギー永続地帯での評価などがある。, 英文：Rapid growth of renewable energy in Europe and from the 2000s began. Especially in European countries, the limit of nuclear power generation is not the reduction of fossil fuel only be anticipation, have already started to walk towards 100% renewable energy. In Japan in the wake of the severe accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant of 2011 is progressing rapidly conversion to renewable energy. In this paper, especially feed-in tariffs (FIT) in the dissemination policy of renewable energy and the role that has played such as for the evaluation, while comparing the overseas and domestic, and the future status quo in Japan We discuss the outlook. On top of that, as the outlook to 100% renewable energy in the region, to discuss the efforts and possibilities to 100% renewable energy region and should aim ultimately future. Toward the realization of long-term 100% renewable energy, medium- and long-term introduction goal setting but important, such as the percentage and greenhouse gas reduction targets as a percentage of renewable energy, in the European countries 30% in 2020 country listed an ambitious goal that exceeds a certain number. In addition it has been made efforts for the realization of 100% renewable energy region around Germany. In doing so, not only electricity, is also important conversion to energy efficiency and renewable energy for heat utilization and transportation fuel. On the other hand, in Japan, it began a rapid growth in the center of the solar power generation by the introduction of the FIT scheme from 2012, some evaluation and in Fukushima Prefecture of vision and energy sustainable zone as a move towards 100% renewable energy.

In 2004, many large-scale fires occurred in Alaska and the burned area encompassed about 26,700 km2. This was the largest burned area since 1956, and combined with an additional 19,000 km2 burned in 2005 (third-largest fire year), the total burned area comprised about 10% of the Alaskan boreal forest in just two years. To clarify the background of the many large-scale fires in 2004, spatial and temporal analyses using various data were performed in this paper. The derived results allow the following conclusion. Dry and warm weather conditions with strong persistent winds are crucial for fires. In 2004, easterly winds from Canada caused two daily hotspot peaks in late June and late August; one daily hotspot peak in mid-July was caused by southwesterly winds from Bethel or the Bristol Bay. These persistent winds lasted for about one week and promoted fire expansion. The above wind conditions in June and August were caused by the development of a high-pressure system over the Beaufort Sea under a persistent blocking ridge over Alaska.

This paper investigated, how climate change impacts the fluorescence chlorophyll a of phytoplankton on Kumanonada bays and reports on the variation of fluorescence chlorophyll a in seasons in the coastal seas. The biological scale (as the varying fluorescence chlorophyll a concentration) was determined by the Uranine concentration using the fluorescence intensity.

[要旨] 本稿は, 企業の年次財務報告書で開示される, 気候変動情報の開示について, 代表的な多国籍企業およびわが国の最近の有価証券報告書の開示事例を分析し, 気候変動に関連したリスクと重要業績指標(KPI)開示の改善に向けた検討を行っている。気候変動問題が企業の発展, 業績および財政状態に影響するならば, その情報開示は極めて重大であり, 投資家の意思決定に影響する。よって, 最近, アメリカではリスクとして, イギリスではKPIとして制度財務報告で情報開示を求める法制度や枠組みが発展してきた。わが国でも既存の制度のもとで開示が可能であるが, 実際には開示企業数も内容も未だ限定的であり, 開示改善のための法制度や具体的指針の発展が必要である。[Abstract] This paper attempts to provide a personal perspective regarding quality improvement on disclosures both risks and key performance indicators (hereafter KPIs) regarding climate change issues in corporate annual financial reports based on analyses of disclosures prepared by both a leading multinational company in the UK on “Form 20-F” for the US securities market and current Japanese companies on “Annual Securities Reports” pursuant to the “Financial Instruments and Exchange Act” for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010 in Japan. Climate change issues could affect company development, performance and position, and disclosure of this information is crucial, as it affects investors' decisionmaking. Therefore, the information should be disclosed as risks in the US financial regulatory framework, and also as KPIs in the UK company law framework; both frameworks have been improved recently. However, in Japan there is little specific framework and little concrete guidance such as in both the US and the UK, and also there is very limited disclosure so far. There is a need for Japan to develop additional regulatory framework and specific guidance in order to improve climate change disclosure in financial reports.

斜面崩壊の予測は一般的に降雨データに基づいて行われる。ある地域内で斜面崩壊の発生を判定する手法として，たとえば時間降雨量と積算雨量の平面上に崩壊発生限界線を決め，降雨量がその線を越えるか否かで判定する方法が使われるが，先行降雨量によって限界雨量は異なるし，その地域内に崩壊が発生するか否かだけの情報しか得られない。気候変動に伴い継続時間が長く，積算雨量の大きな豪雨の発生が増加すると，限界雨量を超えた後の連続する斜面崩壊のプロセスの情報が警戒避難システムに重要である。本研究では，実斜面を対象にして，様々な地形条件，降雨条件のもとに斜面崩壊シミュレーションを行い，個々の斜面の土層内水分量がその斜面の崩壊発生を判定する指標として適切であることや崩壊規模と降雨特性の関係を示したうえで，この指標や解析結果を重要な情報とした斜面崩壊プロセスについて，気候変動による将来の降雨条件を想定して検討する。, Slope failure is predicted based on rainfall data. For example, a critical line for slope failure in an area is drawn on coordinates of hourly and cumulative precipitations, and we can predict that slope failure occur somewhere in the area when rainfall condition crosses the critical line. However, it is important to provide information on successive slope failure process if an extreme rainfall event occurs frequently with climate change. In this paper slope failure was simulated under different geographical and rainfall conditions and the simulation results indicate that water content in an individual slope-soil layer is an adequate index for predicting slope failure. The characteristics of sediment disaster such as the relationship between slope failure magnitude and rainfall condition is discussed and an idea for an evaluation system for successively occurrence of slope failure is presented considering a prospective rainfall event due to climate change.

【概要】近年, 地球の気候変動を要因とする企業経営リスクに関する投資家等利害関係者の情報開示要求が高まりつつあり, リスクを含む気候変動に関連した情報が企業財務報告で適切に開示されるよう求められており, そのための新たなフレームワークも投資家等から提案されている。本稿では, まず, 気候変動に関する最近の国内外の規制状況を, 次に気候変動関連情報開示の意義を, そして提案された主な報告フレームワークを吟味している。投資家等の意思決定に有用な情報開示には, 温室効果ガス排出量に関する測定, 報告および検証(MRV)システムに関する情報を含む報告フレームワークの基準化が必要である。【Abstract】 Last few years, investors and other interest groups have become increasingly concerned about corporate management risks related to global climate change have being increasingly concerned by investors and other interest groups, and some of them are asking companies to properly disclose their climate change related information including management risks on corporate financial reports and have also proposed frameworks in which the information can be disclosed. In this paper, firstly the current main regulatory status in internal and national areas related to corporate management risks is reviewed, secondly, the meaning of the disclosure is discussed, and finally, proposed reporting frameworks by investors and other interest groups for disclosure of the information are examined. It is essential for the benefit of investor decision making to standardize a disclosure framework including core information of measurement, reporting, and verification system of greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change can influence human health in various ways. The influence on infectious diseases is considered particularly important. This chapter deals with the application of an area informatics approach to study in the medical field, particularly the epidemiology of infectious diseases. In recent years, models to predict the effects of climate change on the incidence of infectious diseases in certain areas using time and space as "rulers" have been developed. This approach appears to be applicable to all infectious diseases if important factors mediating the transfer of the effects of climate change to the incidence of infectious disease and the mediation mechanism are understood.Infection is based on the relationship between the host and its parasite (pathogen). In some cases, an intermediate host(s) and/or vector(s) may also be involved in the establishment of infection. All the biological factors involved in infection are influenced individually by climate change. It is important to take the route of transmission of each infectious disease and all biological factors involved in its transmission into consideration when evaluating the effect of climate change on infectious diseases.In this paper, an overview of the importance of climate change effects on infectious diseases is followed by an explanation of representative infectious diseases transmitted through oral,respiratory and skin routes and direct contact and the possible effects of climate change on these infectious diseases. These explanations help the reader understand the important factors involved in the transfer of climate change effects. Next, the direct effect of climate change on the host is considered, with an explanation of some models used to predict change in the risk map(geographical distribution of pathogens or vectors) due to future climate change. In addition, a model we developed to predict future cholera epidemics using local climate data is introduced.Finally, the extent to which climate change studies overlap area informatics is discussed.

This paper addresses the characteristics of climate change due to global warming using simplified climate model. The proposed model can take into account physics-based climate processes as well as the interactions between atmospheric and hydrologic processes in the mid-latitude. Since the present study simulates only the longitudinal climate change, the computational burden can be significantly reduced. The vertically and longitudinally averaged mean temperature and mean water vapor content between 30°N and 50°N latitudes are considered as atmospheric state variables, while soil and sea temperatures and water storage amount are considered for describing the behavior of hydrologic systems. Special attention is directed to the investigation of the various effects on the global warming using this model. The climate changes due to increasing CO2 are investigated in some numerical experiments.

This paper addresses the optimal operation of a group of dam reservoirs in a snowy region for adaptation to the water shortages that are expected to result from climate change. In snowy regions, climate change is likely to cause snow accumulation to decrease. This is expected to shift the snow-melting season earlier, to decrease river discharge and, consequently, to reduce water availability. Thus, the operation of existing dams should be improved. Research was made on the operation of two multipurpose dams in the Toyohira river basin, which supplies water to Sapporo (population 2 million). Using reproductions (1981-2000) and projections (2081-2100) provided by the Regional Climate Model (RCM20) of the Japan Meteorological Agency, we estimated the optimal operation of a group of reservoirs by dynamic programming. The simulation suggests that shortages of dam storage will occur if each dam is operated separately, but that coordinating the discharge operations of two dams can make up for those shortages.