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本研究では，地震災害の統合的予測手法開発の端緒として，地震動推定，建物の損壊被害推定，ならびに火災延焼による焼失被害推定の各モデルの入出力条件を整理し，これらの一体的な運用手続きについて検討を加えた。また，本手続きに基づき，花折断層系を震源とする地震が発生した場合の京都市中心市街地が受ける被害の推定を行った。, A preliminary study for integrated loss estimation of earthquake disasters was conducted by applying existing models of spatial distribution of seismic motion, structural damage of buildings, and building-to-building fire spread, sequentially over the target urban area. The procedure was tested by estimating the loss brought to the city of Kyoto due to the earthquake originated from the shift of Hanaore fault. The results were displayed over a 3D map provided by Google Earth enabling comprehensive analysis of the estimation.

地震時に最も危倶される火災を「出火」と「延焼」の両面から取り上げ，それらの危険性の予測手法等について最近の動向を中心にまとめたものである。まず，地震被害を評価するうえで欠かすことのできない市街地構造の解明とともに出火危険と延焼危険算定の基礎データとなる市街地状況調査について触れる。次に，特別区における出火危険予測として関東大地震と同程度の地震が発生した場合の要因別の出火件数の導出方法と，延焼危険の予測として主に建物に関する焼失危険度について述べる。, The Earthquake Prevention Ordinance plays an important role in earthquake damage reduction measures in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The ordinance spells out that “areal seismic risks should be measured scientifically." Complying with this ordinance, the Tokyo Fire Department makes predictions on earthquake related fires, the most dreadful of all earthquake disasters. The department deals with earthquake fires in two categories: “outbreak of fire" and “spread of fire." There have been some recent improvements in fire risk estimation for Tokyo and other towns due to more precise evaluation of seismic risks and improvement of prediction quality. Until March.1987, the method of estimating the outbreak of fire was based on the relative evaluation of fire risk for each area. Since then, the Fire Prevention Council has developed a method of absolute evaluation, which calculates the fire risk from the number of fire outbreaks. The new method is already being applied in the 23 Tokyo wards Until March, 1985, Hamada's fire spread formula was used for estimating the spread of fire. Since then, the Fire Prevention Council has developed the so-called “Tokyo Fire Department Fire Spread Estimation Formula, "which has been applied in the 23 Tokyo wards since March, 1988. The report deals with hypothetical earthquake fires, covering both aspects, “fire outbreak" and “fire spread，" and listing recent risk estimation methods. First appears a survey of urban structures and facilities which, along wich determination of urban structures，is indispensable for earthquake damage evaluation and provides basic data for calculating the risk of outbreak and spread of fire. Then, I give an outline of the risk of fire outbreak in the 23 Tokyo wards. Assuming an earthquake of the scale of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, I explaine briefly the method of determining the number of fires, separated by cause, and the danger of burning buildings to their surroundings in terms of spreading the fire.