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The European Union (EU) has underscored its will to heighten its engagement in the Arctic region. Beyond traditional areas of interest – such as tackling climate change, supporting research and developing cooperations – critical resources and security emerged as new topics in the EU’s most recent policy documents. These have become even more critical since February 2022 following Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine. The Circumpolar North is the subject of many challenges caused by climate change and its fragile biodiversity, which, combined with the region’s importance for scientific research, access to natural resources, tourist activities, and military security, places it in a geopolitically strategic position. By focusing on EU ambitions in the Arctic, this article analyses the EU’s potential to implement policies and set consequential trends in an area of political interest outside its jurisdiction. It concludes that core political priorities and sector-specific regulations that directly guide the behaviour of EU members may have more influence than Arctic policy statements.

The Svalbard Archipelago has experienced a rapid increase in tourism-related activities over the past few decades. The Norwegian Government’s ambition to develop the Archipelago’s tourism industry offers multiple socio-economic opportunities. The development and scope of these tourism activities is affected by a complex governance system that entails strict environmental regulation and preparedness considerations. To understand the balance of goals across the national and international policy levels, we have mapped, reviewed, and analyzed the national and international regulations and agreements that affect tourism activities on Svalbard. The document analysis reveals the framework of natural and environmental consideration, access to areas and passage, requirements for organized outdoor activities, and regulatory tools. We discovered conflicts and internal inconsistencies in the way that Svalbard tourism has developed. It has been shaped by both economic growth and environmental preservation, without any specific business development objectives and goals or acceptable limits of environmental and social change in place. For tourism stakeholders, this might complicate any rational assessment of the balance between economic development and environmental status. The challenges we have identified are specific to Svalbard, but are likely to be similar in many other Arctic locations involved in tourism.

The Arctic is changing rapidly, and there are many indications that the region is in the midst of transformational change. While some of the focus relates to impacts of climate change, rapid economic development and the potential for shifts in political and social structures in the region have also been in the limelight. This article looks at the circumpolar Arctic as a potential case of a regime shift in a large-scale social–ecological system that includes reinforcing feedbacks. A special focus is placed on governance structures, as these play an important role in social negotiations on the relationship between societies and the environment. While climate change is often portrayed as a driver of social change in the Arctic, it does not appear that the ongoing changes in the biophysical features of the Arctic region have rocked current circumpolar governance structures out of kilter. On the contrary, the ongoing climate-related changes, in particular sea ice decline, appear to have reinforced political commitment to existing legal structures. Major past social regime shifts have mainly been related to access to resources and national identity ideology, with political dynamics reinforced at times by military security considerations.