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O Investimento Direto Estrangeiro (IDE) é um tema que assume grande importância no contexto de desenvolvimento económico e nas estratégias de prosperidade das economias, não sendo exceção para o governo português, que tem vindo a aplicar determinados incentivos e a reformular determinadas políticas por forma a atrair e reter maior investimento em território português. A presente dissertação visa analisar o posicionamento de Portugal em termos de atratividade e retenção de IDE procurando identificar como se comportam os fluxos de entrada de capitais estrangeiros em Portugal, e os fluxos de saída de IDE realizados por investidores portugueses no exterior, por comparação com determinadas economias que verificam níveis de atração e de retenção de IDE superiores. Apesar dos esforços do governo na reformulação e adoção de novas políticas de estimulação ao investimento, a economia portuguesa tem sido apontada como estando cada vez mais na “cauda da europa”. Diversos investigadores têm apontado questões como a carga fiscal elevada e a burocracia como entraves ao IDE, neste sentido, com base em indicadores mundiais irá ser avaliado o posicionamento de Portugal em relação a outras economias europeias, procurando identificar relações de causalidade entre o volume de IDE recebido e o volume elevado de impostos e de procedimentos burocráticos exigidos às empresas, que impactam a sua qualidade institucional. Foreign direct investment (FDI) it’s a topic that assumes major importance in the context of economic development and in the prosperity strategies of economies, being no exception for the Portuguese government, which has been applying certain incentives and reformulating certain policies in order to attract and retain greater investment in Portuguese territory. This dissertation aims to analyze the position of Portugal in terms of attractiveness and retention of FDI, seeking to identify how the inflows of foreign capital into Portugal behave, and the outflows of FDI carried out by Portuguese investors abroad, compared with certain economies that have higher levels of attraction and retention of FDI. Despite the government's efforts in reformulating and adopting new policies to stimulate investment, the Portuguese economy has been pointed out as being increasingly in the "tail of Europe". Several researchers have pointed out issues such as the high tax burden and bureaucracy as barriers to FDI, in this sense, based on global indicators will be evaluated the positioning of Portugal in relation to other European economies, trying to identify causal relationships between the volume of FDI received and the high volume of taxes and bureaucratic procedures required to companies, which impact their institutional quality.

This PhD thesis re-examines a long-standing debate about the link between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals, with particular attention to two measurements - first, instability and second, uncertainty - in explaining the dynamics of the real effective exchange rate over the past 24 years. At the same time, studies the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and inflation rate. The mission of this thesis is to address these matters of interest in three different studies as follows, the impact of stability and uncertainty on exchange rate dynamics in the first two empirical chapters and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on inflation rate in the last empirical study. The empirical applications emphasise the use of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) in assessing the relationship between the variables under analysis. The thesis contribution to the literature can be seen in three main ways. Firstly, it applies and tests both, the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) framework in a single developed economy in order to compute currency misalignments. Secondly, it emphasises the impact of political stability and economic policy uncertainty on the UK real effective exchange rate and thirdly, links inflation rate to economic policy uncertainty in the aftermath of the 2016 UK vote to leave the EU. We conclude that our empirical results are consistent with literature findings, suggesting that the political stability indicator and the economic policy uncertainty index explain long run fluctuations in the exchange rate dynamics. The value of the inflation rate increases due to the shocks on economic policy uncertainty while the UK currency depreciates due to uncertainty shock. Esta tese de doutoramento reexamina um longo debate sobre a ligação entre a taxa decâmbio e os seus fundamentos macroeconómicos, com particular atenção duas medidas: a instabilidade política e a incerteza de política económica. Esta análise foca-se na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio efectiva real no Reino Unido nos últimos 24 anos. Adicionalmente, estudamos no mesmo contexto a relação entre a incerteza de política económica e a taxa de inflação. A tese aborda estas questões em três estudos empíricos diferentes. O impacto da estabilidade e incerteza na diâamica da taxa de câmbio será estudada nos dois primeiros capítulos empíricos, enquanto que o impacto da incerteza da política económica na taxa de inflação será o tema do último estudo empírico. As aplicações empíricas analisam a relação entre as variáveis utilizando o Modelo de Correcção de Erros Vectoriais (VECM), o Modelo Autoregressivo de Lag Distribuído (ARDL) e o Modelo Vectorial de Autoregressão (VAR). A contribuição da tese para a literatura centra-se em três pontos principais. Em primeiro lugar, aplica-se e testa-se o Modelo de Equilíbrio Comportamental (BEER) e o Modelo de Equilíbrio Permanente (PEER) numa economia desenvolvida, a fim de calcular os desalinhamentos cambiais. Em segundo lugar, sublinha-se o impacto da estabilidade política e da incerteza da política económica na taxa de câmbio efectiva real do Reino Unido. Em terceiro lugar, relaciona-se a taxa de inflação com a incerteza da política económica no rescaldo da votação de 2016 no Reino Unido para deixar a UE. Concluímos que os nossos resultados emíricos são consistentes com as conclusões da literatura, sugerindo que o indicador de estabilidade política e o índice de incerteza da política económica explicam flutuações de longo prazo na dinâmica da taxa de câmbio. O valor da taxa de inflação aumenta devido aos choques na incerteza da política económica, enquanto a moeda britânica deprecia-se devido aos choques de incerteza e de instabilidade.

Investment Screening Mechanisms (ISM) are legal rules created to control and assess the entry of direct investments from foreign jurisdictions. This discussion paper is premised on the observation of a marked increase in the institutionalization and implementation of ISM in recent years, regardless of the type of domestic economy. It selects fifteen ISM for a descriptive analysis of their organizational structures and procedures, including: Australia, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Portugal, Russia, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Although the criteria for controlling and evaluating foreign investment contains national security as a shared concern, this paper identifies a significant diversity regarding the profile of the institutions responsible for investment screening, including their scope and their procedures for assessment. As a final remark, the paper raised critical concerns about ISM based on its analysis and the literature.

The inflow of foreign investment can provide several positive economic effects. The main determining elements are related to the economic environment, but this does not mean that the government options are limited. Policy measures that affect the operation of firms have a significant weight in the decision process by potential investors. This text aims at contributing to the debate about the Brazilian policy towards the attraction of foreign direct investment, emphasizing a few dimensions that have been less considered so far, but should be a systematic part of such policy.

Existe ampla evidência, de que a nível fiscal, a competição pela atração de IDE nas suas várias vertentes, deu origem, ao longo das últimas décadas, a um cenário de race to the bottom, provocando uma significativa erosão das bases tributárias a nível internacional e onde o Mercado Único Europeu não foi exceção. Esta temática tem ganho recentemente particular relevância no seguimento da iniciativa em curso que reúne 139 países e jurisdições na tentativa de estabelecer um compromisso que permita mitigar estes efeitos, reformando os acordos internacionais de taxação de lucros. Esta Dissertação apresenta evidência empírica sobre o efeito das taxas de imposto estatutárias e efetivas sobre o lucro das empresas, no influxo de IDE, procurando contribuir para a discussão em curso, bem como consolidar anteriores resultados obtidos no âmbito desta temática. Esta Dissertação incide especificamente sobre os 12 países fundadores do Mercado Único Europeu, tendo-se estimado um modelo baseado nos dados mais recentes, disponíveis entre 2002 e 2019. Os resultados obtidos confirmam o efeito negativo da taxa efetiva de imposto no influxo de IDE, bem como a prevalência deste tipo de taxa sobre a taxa estatutária de imposto, tendo-se encontrado adicionalmente evidência da significância estatísticas de outros determinantes do influxo de IDE. Destes podemos destacar o crescimento do mercado interno e do poder de compra, o desenvolvimento do setor financeiro, o índice de corrupção e os recursos naturais. Por fim, analisou-se se este efeito negativo tem maior magnitude junto dos países com maior PIB per capita. There is a wide evidence that competition at fiscal level with the aim of attracting FDI in its multiple shapes has given rise over the last few decades to a race to the bottom effect, causing a significant tax base erosion at an international level and more specifically at the European Single Market level. This subject has recently gained particular relevance following the ongoing initiative that brings together 139 countries and jurisdictions in an attempt to establish a commitment to mitigate these effects, reforming international agreements on profit taxation. This Dissertation presents empirical evidence on the effect of statutory and effective tax rates on corporate profits, on the inflow of FDI, seeking to contribute to the ongoing discussion, as well as to consolidate previous results obtained under this subject. This Dissertation focuses specifically on the 12 founding countries of the European Single Market, estimating a model based on the most recent data, available between 2002 and 2019. The results obtained confirm the negative effect of the effective tax rate on the inflow of FDI as well as the prevalence of this tax rate over the statutory tax rate. Additionally, we found evidence of statistical significance regarding other determinants of FDI inflows, such as the growth of the domestic market and purchasing power, the development of the financial sector, the index corruption and natural resources. Finally, it is analysed whether this negative effect was greater in countries with higher GDP per capita.

O boom de commodities e a crise financeira global exerceram influência elevada sobre a economia mundial no período 2004-2012. Diante deste cenário, a análise fatorial e o estimador de Heckit são utilizados para verificar o modo como esta conjuntura influenciou no fluxo de IED, com base em uma amostra constituída por 21 países emissores de investimento externo direto (IED) e 30 países receptores de IED. Em suma, os resultados encontrados indicam que o boom de commodities resulta no aumento do IED em países com abundância de recursos naturais. Ademais, a variável binária adicionada ao modelo para identificar se a crise altera o fluxo de IED no período 2008-2009 foi estatisticamente significativa.

This study aims to quantify the potential financing estilmates from institutional investors - pension funds, insurance companies, investment funds and sovereign wealth funds - from global (OECD) and domestic markets to infrastructure in Brazil. Institutional investors are not homogeneous, and have a wide range of objectives, characteristics and structural factors that influence their investment decisions, in addition to regulatory restrictions. The model covers: i) estimation of assets under management, considering structural restrictions on liquidity, size and profile by type of investor, which reduces the current volume by at least 50%; ii) increasing of 2% to 3% in portfolio allocation to infrastructure asset class for the next decade; iii) assets under management growth of 6% pa according to the historical data; and iv) Brazil's market share of 2.5% from global resources available for infrastructure. The potential financing for Brazil infrastructure from institutional investors corresponds of US$ 9 billion to US$ 17 billion pa in the next decade, equivalent of 0.5% to 0.9% of 2019 GDP. That figure, given the current investment levels of about 2% of GDP, leads to a potential flow of about 3% of GDP, a considerable amount, but still below the target of 4% of GDP (about US$ 70 billion per year). We emphasize that this exercise provides values that are justified only as an estimate of the order of magnitude and should be viewed sparingly and according to the hypotheses considered.

Policies aimed at favoring the attraction of FDI have been gaining strength on the agenda of national governments, largely supported by the so-called Investment Promotion Agencies (APIs). The purpose of this Discussion paper is to analyze the list of instruments adopted by such agencies. The methodology used in this research is based on bibliographic research, documentary research and analysis of secondary data. Based on the present study, it is possible to state that the range of mechanisms adopted by the APIs are not restricted to services that occur during the stages of definition and establishment of FDI projects, such as promoting visits to the place where the investment will take place and the promotion of working meetings with local stakeholders. This range also includes the provision of additional assistance, already after the implementation of MNCs in that location, in order to favor the decisions of expansions and reinvest ments made by such companies, such as the availability of a database of local suppliers and ombudsman services. This study also indicates the importance of APIs engaging in the creation and permanent review of strategic planning. Such document assumes the function of subsidizing the elaboration of the instruments of attraction and retention of FDI to be adopted by the Agencies. In addition, this Text for Discussion indicates the importance of the process of evaluating the policies practiced by the APIs, with a view to ascertaining the effectiveness of these policies, in addition to indicating the need for any adjustments, changes in priorities, as well as the range of instruments used.

The last three decades have witnessed important changes in transportation, communication and data processing, with effects over productive processes, trade flows and the international movement of capital. From the viewpoint of developing economies this led to the recommendation of adhering to this process as a tool to foster economic and social development. As for the Brazilian economy, its participation in the process of globalization has been limited so far, except for the movement of capital. Its share in total merchandise trade is low, as is the number of preferential trade agreements. It has not been possible to reduce the 'economic distance' towards the high-income economies.

Except for Brazil, Latin American countries considerably expanded their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) networks during the 1990s in an attempt to expand FDI inflows. Although the theory on the subject predicts a positive relationship between the inflow of FDI and the conclusion of these agreements, the empirical literature is not conclusive about what impacts TBIs have on FDI, making uncertain the effects that these agreements have had on investment decisions in the region. This article contributes to the literature by analyzing the extent to which these agreements have contributed to the volume of greenfield FDI in Latin American countries. A gravitational model has been estimated for this purpose and the results indicate that for Latin American countries TBIs have no statistically significant effect on FDI. The size of economies, economic growth, trade openness, the similarity in return on capital has explained why this type of FDI has been directed to countries in the region. It was also evident that countries with better regulatory quality attract more FDI. Countries that have ratified most TBI have responded to some claims in arbitration courts have their investment flows reduced. Finally, taking into account sectoral fixed effects, the estimation of the gravitational model suggested that TBIs have no positive effect on investments in the industrial, services and natural resource extraction sectors.

The Bilateral Investment Treats (BITs) are a set of rules that regulate private foreign investment from one country to another. The BITs aim to provide desirable security to foreign investors in order to stimulate the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This study reviews a series of empirical and theoretical papers that analyze the effect of BITs on FDI. According to the literature on the subject, there is no consensus on the sign and magnitude of the impact of BITs on FDI. There are evidences suggesting a positive effect, lack of effect and even indicating negative impacts on FDI from BIT. However, more detailed studies do suggest that the TBI may have a positive effect on FDI, but conditional on the country's institutional quality, differences in dispute settlement mechanisms and if the destination country of the investment has not received investor complaints for resolving investor-state disputes. Future trends for TBIs clarify terms such as "indirect expropriation", try new ways to resolve potential disputes without the need to resort to international courts, and seek to avoid making concessions that conflict with domestic policy objectives aiming sustainable development.

O objetivo fundamental deste estudo consiste na caracterização da investigação empírica que tem vindo a ser desenvolvida no âmbito da relação entre o investimento direto estrangeiro e a fiscalidade, abrangendo um período temporal de 14 anos (2005-2019). No que respeita aos seus objetivos específicos, este estudo tem como propósito analisar a informação contida nos artigos publicados, bem como o perfil dos respetivos investigadores. Assim, foram criadas as seguintes variáveis: ano de publicação do artigo e revista na qual foi publicado, temáticas mais investigadas, artigos mais citados, número de citações, tipo de autoria, produtividade dos autores, co-citações, relação entre autores e a sua afiliação geográfica. Os resultados obtidos revelam que o número de publicações alusivas à relação entre o investimento direto estrangeiro e a fiscalidade tem vindo a aumentar, encontrando-se os artigos publicados em 45 revistas científicas distintas. Quanto às temáticas mais investigadas, constata-se que a maioria dos investigadores opta por estudar a relação entre o investimento direto estrangeiro e o crescimento económico, assim como quantificar o impacto da atribuição de incentivos fiscais e das taxas de imposto sobre o rendimento das pessoas coletivas na captação deste tipo de investimento. Relativamente ao perfil dos investigadores, afere-se que o tipo de autoria mais frequente é a coletiva, sendo que a maior parte dos referidos investigadores é responsável pela publicação de apenas um artigo. Ademais, todos os continentes estão representados nesta investigação, no entanto, os Estados Unidos são o país com o maior número de investigadores afiliados. The fundamental objective of this study is to characterise the empirical research that has been developing within the context of the relationship between foreign direct investment and taxation, covering a 14-year period (2005-2019). Regarding its specific objectives, this study aims to analyse the information contained in the published articles, as well as the profile of the respective researchers. Thus, the following variables were created: year of publication of the article and scientific journal in which it was published, most investigated subject areas, most cited articles, number of citations, type of authorship, author productivity, co-citations, relationship between authors and their geographical affiliation. The results obtained reveal that the number of publications concerning the relationship between foreign direct investment and taxation has been increasing, with the articles being published in 45 different scientific journals. With respect to the most investigated subject areas, it appears that the majority of researchers choose to study the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth, as well as to quantify the impact of granting tax incentives and of corporate income tax rates in attracting this type of investment. In relation to the profile of the researchers, it is possible to conclude that the most frequent type of authorship is the collective one, with many of the referred researchers being responsible for the publication of only one article. Additionally, all continents are represented in this research. However, the United States are the country with the largest number of affiliated researchers

This text presents the main points of the debate about the mechanisms of attraction and facilitation of foreign direct investment. Recently several countries have questioned the traditional model of investment agreements. One of the remarkable dimensions in the agenda of several multinational agencies is what type of conditions can be expected to form part of those agreements. One alternative is the model of agreement of cooperation and facilitation of investment adopted by Brazil.

The objective of this study is to analyze the response of improvements in the regulatory rankings of emerging economies to private investments in infrastructure especially for Brazil. The proposed methodology relies on a fixed-effect panel model. We further investigated whether, after the 2008 global crisis, there was a significant change in the perception of the private investor in relation to the regulatory and institutional characteristics of emerging markets. The study covers eighteen emerging economies - Argentina, Brazil, China, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay and Vietnam, which represented around 89% of private investment flow to emerging countries and totaled US$ 1.3 trillion and 4.480 projects for emerging countries in the period of 2000-2018. The results are significant with the expected signal. The better the country's regulatory quality ranking, the greater the volume of investments and the number of projects with private participation in infrastructure. The result is robust to several specifications and institutional characteristics added to the model. Finally, after the global crisis, model suggests there was a significant increase in the importance of the regulatory framework for decision-making and private capital allocation in this sector in emerging economies. If Brazil improves its position in the regulatory quality ranking to the same level occupied in mid-2000 (65th place, Colombia's current position in 2018), this would lead to an increase of 0.81% of gross domestic product (GDP) in investments. If it reaches the Chilean levels (89th place), the increase would be 1.59% of GDP. Such value added to the current levels would total 3.4% of GDP, value somehow closer to the target of 4.25% of GDP estimated by the World Bank for a sustained growth.

This paper aims to analyze the direct and indirect effects (regional spillover) of foreign direct investment in the Brazilian states on the rate of economic growth. First, was used the procedure of spatial analysis to verify the presence of spatial correlation among the states, and then, we apply econometrics of panel data with spatial weights. The results suggest that foreign direct investment can affect economic growth directly. Also is possible to observe a regional spillover effect positive. However, this relationship demonstrates sensitive to changes in the specification., A presente pesquisa objetiva analisar os efeitos diretos e indiretos (spillover regional) do investimento estrangeiro direto nos estados brasileiros sobre a taxa de crescimento econômico. Para tanto, se utiliza primeiramente o procedimento de análise espacial para se verificar a existência de correlação espacial entre os estados e, posteriormente, o procedimento econométrico de dados em painel com pesos espaciais. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que o investimento estrangeiro direto pode afetar o crescimento econômico de forma direta. Também é possível observar o efeito spillover regional positivo. No entanto, essa relação mostra-se sensível a mudanças na especificação.

This study examines the relationship between institutional quality and capital flows to emerging economies. Such index correspond to a structural long-run determinant to capital flows and is actually little discussed in the literature. The 13 economies analyzed between 2000-2014 accounted for over 70% of the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global in September 2016. The model specification has the merit to measure the direct and indirect effects of the variables considered exogenous in domestic fundamentals which according to our knowledge is an innovative approach. The main results suggest that improved institutional quality of the emerging economy is closely linked to increased capital inflow, particularly to foreign direct investment. A typical increase in institutional quality could compensate emerging economies for an adverse international liquidity or global risk aversion shocks.

Over the past decades, Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) have assumed an important role in international relations, in particular with regard to the foreign direct investment (FDI). This group of economies, albeit under different intensities, ceased to be mere recipients of FDI to become important source of this kind investment. Thus, this study aims to explore the dynamics of the FDI of the BRICs, in order to capture its main conditioning factors, their trajectory, their structure and their major destinations throughout the period 1995-2013. It was verified the Chinese FDI leadership in this process, although the other countries that compose the group have increased in a significant way their respective FDI stocks between the beginning and the end of the considered period. In addition, significant differences were verified with regard to the main determining factors of these investments of BRICs, as well as to its structure and to its most important destinations. Moreover, after the outbreak of the global crisis in 2008 these differences have become even more evident. This study allows concluding, therefore, that the success of this process requires initiatives to ensure that companies in those countries are able to compete on the same conditions as those of the developed countries in strategic sectors.

Classificação JEL: E- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; F21- International Investment. O tema desta dissertação consiste em determinar o sentido em que determinadas variáveis macroeconómicas (enfatizando, sobremaneira, a variável crédito em percentagem do PIB) influenciam as empresas na escolha do país de localização do investimento direto estrangeiro na Europa. Numa primeira fase, encetou-se uma revisão de literatura, onde foi possível obter informações atinentes (1) aos determinantes de localização do IDE, no geral, (2) às variáveis macroeconómicas que influenciam a escolha de localização, por parte das empresas e ainda (3) a influência que aquelas têm, na atração de IDE. Posteriormente, procedeu-se à escolha das variáveis a incluir no estudo econométrico, onde se levaram a cabo várias tentativas para aferir da viabilidade da inclusão das mesmas, no modelo a estudar. A realização do estudo econométrico permitiu obter os seguintes resultados: quanto maior for o nível de crédito, em percentagem do PIB (a partir de determinado valor), e o crescimento do PIB e menor forem os impostos, o nível de inflação e os custos do trabalho, maior será a probabilidade de um país receber IDE. Com exceção do crédito em percentagem do PIB, todas as variáveis deram significativas. Para contornar a não significância da variável principal, introduziu-se uma nova variável – o crédito ao quadrado – que fez com que essa passa-se a ser significativa. De seguida, foram introduzidas, no modelo, algumas variáveis de interação, nomeadamente: zona euro, tipo de projeto, setor financeiro e intensidade de capital. Por fim, procedeu-se a um confronto dos resultados da literatura, com os resultados obtidos com o presente estudo. The theme of this thesis is to determinate the direction in which certain macroeconomics variables (emphasizing, greatly, the variable credit as a percentage of GDP) influence companies to choose the country of foreign direct investment location in Europe. Initially, has started up a literature review. It was possible to obtain information relating to thereto (1) of the determinants of FDI location, in general, (2) the macroeconomic variables that influence the choice of location for companies and further (3) the influence that those have on FDI attraction. Subsequently, we proceeded to the choice of variables to include in the econometric study, where were carried out several attempts to check out the viability of including them in this model. The completion of the econometric study yielded the following results: the higher the level of credit as a percentage of GDP (from a certain value) and GDP growth and the smaller the rates, the inflation level and labor costs, the greater the probability of a country receiving FDI. With the exception of credit as a percentage of GDP, all variables were significant. To work around the no significance of the main variable, we introduced a new variable – credit squared – which this pass to be significant. Then, were introduced, in the model, some interaction variables, namely: euro zone, type of project, financial sector, capital intensity. Finally, we proceeded to a comparison of the literature results and the obtained results.

The present study aims to evaluate the relationship of interdependence between the Brazilian agricultural exports, foreign direct investment in the agricultural export sector, world income and the exchange rate, and to identify which of these variables has really influenced the performance ofBrazil's agricultural exports. For this, we estimated a standard VAR model, from which was conducted the Granger Causality Test and the variance decomposition of forecast error. The analysis shows that the foreign income is an important part of the variance of the Brazilian agricultural exports, FDI in the sector has not obtained a relevant participation and that the exchange rate variable, through their effects on foreign income, had an indirect influence on agricultural exports. These results converge on the importance of direct foreign capital inflow, in the agricultural sector, be directed to create infrastructure and new production units, not allowing that the entry of foreign investment in this sector continues to be characterized as a process of internationalization of production of certain agroindustrial chains., O presente estudo tem como objetivo avaliar as relações de interdependência entre as exportações agropecuárias brasileiras, o investimento direto estrangeiro no setor agroexportador, a renda mundial e a taxa de câmbio, além de verificar quais dessas variáveis realmente têm influenciado o desempenho das exportações agrícolas do Brasil. Para tanto, estimou-se um modelo VAR padrão, a partir do qual foi realizado o teste de causalidade de Granger e a decomposição da variância do erro de previsão. A análise dos resultados mostra que a renda externa representa parte importante da variância das exportações agropecuárias brasileiras, o IDE no setor não obteve participação relevante e a variável câmbio, por meio de seus efeitos sobre a renda mundial, apresentou influência indireta sobre as exportações agrícolas. Tais resultados convergem para a importância de se direcionar o ingresso de capital estrangeiro, no setor agropecuário, para a criação de infraestrutura e novas unidades produtivas, não deixando que a entrada de investimento externo nesse setor continue se caracterizando como um processo de internacionalização da produção de certas cadeias agroindustriais.

The financial account of the balance of payments aggregates a set of heterogeneous flows, with marked differences in terms of purpose, risk, maturity and liquidity. With this perspective, the paper analyzes the factors that explain comparatively extreme events occurred in the flows of the three main headings of the financial account: direct investment, portfolio investment and account for loans and financing. These events are identified in the literature as sudden stops in net capital inflows from residents or the sudden flight of capital from residents. The paper concludes that the global risk is the only relevant variable to explain the events of sudden stop in net inflow of foreign capital of almost all forms of capital. The explanatory power of each local variable differs between the types of capital flow.

The paper proposes a panel model to the determinants of capital flow volatility to a group of eighteen emerging market economies (EME) in the period of 2000 to 2011. It studies the robustness of the model regarding different volatility measures; analyses several types of gross capital inflow; focusing the role of government institutional quality and the development of domestic financial system (banks, insurance companies, and capital markets - stocks, bonds and derivatives). The eighteen EME analyzed (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela) represented roughly 95% of the Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG) in January 2013, being the biggest destination to international capital flow to EME according to the report of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, 2009). The main conclusion suggests that a reduction of capital flow volatility can be achieved by the adoption of policies that improve government institutional quality and promote development, stability and efficiency of the domestic financial system.

The balance of payments' financial account aggregates a very heterogeneous set of capital flows. Among other features, these investments differ in terms of maturity, risk, liquidity and receptor. From this viewpoint, this paper analyzes comparatively the behavior of the main components of the financial account during the events of sudden stops in the net inflow of foreign capital to the emergent and developed countries. These events are identified in the literature as sharp and unexpected falls in the financial account surplus of a country as a result of the foreign investors' decisions to stop the financial flows to this country. The article concludes that these events are almost entirely explained by contraction of flows of portfolio investment flows and loans, whose average maturities are lower than that of the direct investment. In addition, investments in fixed income and for the public sector are relatively more stable than investments in variable income and for banks and private companies.

This paper examines the causal relationship among economic growth (GDP), exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil during the years of 1947 to 2010. The empirical study is based on a VAR, in which was applied the Toda e Yamamoto test. The results show an one-way relation between GPD and exports, as well as between exports and FDI, indicating that exports can be considered a "mechanism of effect" between economic growth and foreign direct investment. These results indicate the relevance of infrastructure investments, among others, as national development promoters., Neste artigo, examina-se a relação causal entre crescimento econômico (PIB), exportações e investimento direto estrangeiro (IDE) no Brasil durante o período que compreende os anos de 1947 a 2010. Para tanto, estimou-se um modelo VAR, a partir do qual foi realizado o teste de causalidade de Toda e Yamamoto entre as variáveis em estudo. A análise dos resultados evidencia uma relação unidirecional entre PIB e EXP, bem como entre EXP e IDE, indicando que as exportações podem ser consideradas um “mecanismo de efeito” entre o crescimento econômico e os investimentos diretos estrangeiros. Tais resultados convergem para a importância dos investimentos em infraestrutura, dentre outros, como promotores do desenvolvimento nacional.

The objective of this paper is to investigate if Inflation Targeting Regime (hereafter ITR) institutional design has any relationship with growth performance of ITR countries. The theoretical model to be presented here shows that flexibility in the definition of the target rate of inflation is an important issue for a balanced growth in the long-run. This result supports the main empirical hypothesis of this paper according to which the level of institutional flexibility of an ITR has a positive relationship with output performance of the ITR countries. The empirical results we constructed support the hypothesis that the adoption of core inflation indexes, the establishment of a convergence horizon for targeting longer than the minimum (one year), and the ability of central banks in avoiding target losses are positive factors to preserve a strong and sustainable economic growth of ITR countries., O objetivo deste artigo é investigar se o desenho institucional do Regime de Metas de Inflação (RMI doravante) tem qualquer relação com o desempenho de crescimento dos países que adotam o regime. O modelo teórico a ser apresentado mostra que a flexibilidade na definição da meta de inflação é um fator importante para definir o crescimento balanceado no longo prazo. Este resultado apoia a hipótese a ser testada empiricamente de que o nível de flexibilidade institucional de um RMI tem uma relação positiva com o desempenho de produto dos países que praticam RMI. Os resultados empíricos mostram que a adoção de índices núcleo de inflação, o estabelecimento de um horizonte de convergência maior e a habilidade de o banco central evitar perda nas metas são fatores positivos para preservar o crescimento sustentado dos países com RMI.

The growing interest of Brazilian companies in the Argentine market has attracted the attention of the both economies on the implications and the reasons behind of this phenomenon. Recent data show a marked increased tendency flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil toward the neighboring country, either through new production facilities or by resources for mergers and acquisitions of local companies. In 2008, Brazil recorded an increase of 43% of investment sent to Argentina and since 2005 has accounted for more than 25% of the total amount of foreign capital applied in purchasing of corporations in this country. With this in mind, this text provides some information about the movement of FDI in Latin America and discusses some of its characteristics, showing the recent evolution of these investments mainly in the two mentioned economies. Several reasons, linked mainly to historical conditions placed for companies in the both countries during the 1990s explain the persistence of diametrically opposed positions assumed by Brazil and Argentina at the scene of the regional flows of these capitals.

The aim of this study is to test uncovered interest parities for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, for the Jan/1990 to Dec/2001 period, with the use of the rational expectation hypothesis. We also intend to evaluate the degree of mobility of foreign capital in these political jurisdictions, using panel data estimations, with unit root tests proposed by Levin and Lin (1992), and Im, Pesaran, and Shin (1997). The econometric results indicate the rejection of UIR for the period under study, for the group comprised of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. However, the UIP hypothesis is not rejected for the group comprised of Argentina, Chile, and Mexico for the Jan/1991 to Dec/2000 period., A meta deste estudo é testar a paridade de juros descoberta para a Argentina, Brasil, Chile e México no período de Jan./1990 a Dez./2001, com o uso da hipótese de expectativas racionais. Pretende-se também avaliar o grau de mobilidade de capital estrangeiro nestas jurisdições políticas, usando estimativas de Panel Data, com testes de raízes unitárias propostas por Levin e Lin (1992), e Im, Pesaran, e Shin (1997). Os resultados econométricos indicam a rejeição da UIP, no período estudado, para o grupo formado pela Argentina, Brasil, Chile e México. Contudo, a hipótese da UIP não é rejeitada para o grupo da Argentina, Chile e México no período de Jan./91 a Dez./2000.

This paper analyzes the logic of expansion of multinational corporations and their determinants in order to understand the dynamics and the main features of global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the eighties. This is an analytical review of historical and theoretical approach that seeks to raise the main factors explaining the changes in the nature and direction taken by foreign direct investment and by technical progress in the recent period, compared with its configuration from the post-war to the end of seventies. In this direction, the text is divided as follows: the first part describes the process of internationalization of production emerged in the immediate post-war, focusing on the logic of expansive multinational corporation under the Bretton Woods consensus, extending the analysis from 1950 until the rise of U.S. interest rates in 1979. The second part will deal with changes in the logic of multinational expansion from 1980, under the emergence of a new institutional framework characterized by globalization of finance. It aims to show that the two institutional environments conditioned different corporative strategies and investment location for multinational corporations related to main changes in the rules of FDI and international trade. The third part deals with some considerations about the main characteristics assumed by FDI post-1980 the light of some empirical evidence. In the final part some remarks will be taken for conclusions.

The aim of this paper is to analyze if specific characteristics of host countries contribute to explain foreign investment in research and development. We have estimated two step selection models to explain the decision and the level of R&D investment by multinational companies in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. The innovation surveys in these three countries were pooled in order to do the estimations. The main results suggest that the size of the market and the interaction between firms and research institutes and universities are important locational factors explaining multinational companies investments in research and development.