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Prospective studies about emerging technologies and their implications for public policy formulation indicate critical choices ranging from global to national level, even to the individual firm or institution. Emerging technologies have been shaping the future of some industries and transforming many others. In many cases, these technologies will determine the restructuring of industries as never before. Specially designed for enabling better planning and future decisions, technology foresight (TF) methods are used to foresee diffusion of innovations, mapping out commercially viable roadmaps for technological development. This paper is concerned with a methodological instrument adopted in Brazil as support for building the Agenda for a National Innovation Initiative (NII), which was articulated by government, universities, R&D institutions, and private firms. It presents and discusses an integrated methodological approach for a TF study, specially designed for the purpose of this Brazilian innovation policy instrument, concerning three emerging technologies – nanotechnology, biotechnology, and information and communication technologies (ICT).

Emerging technologies based on biotechnology, nanotechnology, information and communication technologies (ICT), and green chemistry will shape the future of some industries and will transform many others. In many cases, these technologies will determine the development and restructuring of industries as never before. These changes, in turn, will promote debates and revisions of current regulatory frameworks and corporate business models. This paper - which is based on a prospective study carried out by the authors in 2010 - emphasizes the importance of understanding and anticipating movements of driving forces, trends and critical uncertainties at global level, which will influence the diffusion of emerging technologies into industrial processes and business models concerning seven societal sectors. The purpose of this paper is to describe the evolutionary trajectories of these sectors, based on diffusion of the so-called emergent technologies in a time horizon of 20 years.