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Este trabajo aborda la incertidumbre, foco central del actual debate epistemológico, en una triple concreción sociológica. En primer lugar, concreción temática: la incertidumbre en el ámbito del cambio climático (CC, en adelante). En segundo lugar, se fija en actores concretos: expertos en ese ámbito. Y tercero: concreta una observación empírica, con entrevistas a expertos españoles en CC. Se asume una perspectiva emic, atenta al habla de los expertos sobre sentido, localización y gestión de la incertidumbre climática. Como recoge la sucesión de los distintos informes del IPCC, la incertidumbre ha sido y es asunto central de reflexión en el estudio del CC. Dado que son los expertos los que la definen, clasifican, miden y comunican al resto de la ciudadanía, su estudio debe pasar necesariamente por la indagación de su peculiar relación con la heterogénea comunidad de los expertos. Tras dar cuenta de la relevancia dada a la incertidumbre en los informes del IPCC, se propone una reconstrucción selectiva del debate sobre la experticia y la incertidumbre, presentando algunos resultados de las indagaciones sobre el tema en España, para centrar después la atención en el análisis de las evidencias aportadas por una investigación cualitativa, concluyendo con los principales resultados alcanzados. Uncertainty is one of the central issues in the current epistemological debate. This paper proposes to approach it within the framework of a triple sociological concretion. First, a thematic concretion: uncertainty in the field of climate change. Second, it focuses on specific actors: experts in the field of climate change. And third, it is based on an empirical sociological observation of qualitative interviews with a significant sample of Spanish climate change experts. Thus, an emic perspective is adopted, paying attention to what the experts say about the meaning, location, and management of uncertainty. Uncertainty has been and continues to be a central topic of reflection in the study of climate change, as shown by the succession of different IPCC reports. Since it is the experts who define, classify, measure, and communicate the uncertainty of climate change to the rest of the citizens, its study must necessarily include the observation of the peculiar relationship with the heterogeneous community of experts. This work aims to make a contribution in this respect. After an account of the importance given to uncertainty in the IPCC reports, it proposes a selective reconstruction of the debate on expertise and uncertainty, presenting some of the results of research on the subject in Spain, to then focus attention on the analysis of the evidence provided by recent qualitative research, and to end with some conclusions that identify the main results obtained.

Abstract My paper approaches the theme of computational creativity by looking at uncertainty as an epistemic and aesthetic tool that must be examined to address the challenges brought to critical practice by planetary computation. It positions uncertainty as central to how the encounter of the human practitioner with non-human machines is conceptualized, and as a resource for building speculative-pragmatic paths of resistance against algorithmic capture. It proposes ways to cultivate uncertainty and use it as a design material to produce new types of knowledge that question machines’ pre-emptying manoeuvres and resist their capture of potential. The argument proposed is that uncertainty affords the production of new imaginaries of the human-machine encounter that can resist the foreclosure of futures (what will be) and are sustained instead by the uncertainty of potential (what might be) (Munster 2013). Dwelling in a space of potential – Deleuze’s virtual, or what I call a space of ‘maybes’, requires of the practitioner a repositioning of their epistemic perspective and reflecting on the following questions: how can material knowledge be made by engaging with modes of un-knowing and not-knowing in machine interaction? How can these modes of un-knowing and not-knowing be fostered as a critical and political onto-epistemological project of reinventing critical practice for the algorithmic age? (Horl et al. 2021; Hansen 2021, 2015, Pasquinelli and Joler 2020). The paper argues that the machinic unknown should be engaged with - not through the conventional paradigm that pitches human vs machine creativity and attempts to rank and score them through similarities, but rather through a (paradoxical) deepening of the unknowability at the core of the machine (Parisi) and machine’s own incommensurability (Fazi 2020). It then proposes the Chinese notion of wu wei (active non action) (Jullien 2011, 2004, 2000, 1995; Allen 2015, 2011) as a stratagem to experiment with to craft speculative-pragmatic interventions, and to augment the ‘power of maybes’ as a space of anti-production, and resisting reduction (Ito 2019).

There is currently a growing interest in understanding the purchase intention and acceptance of electric vehicles. In this regard, this study aims to analyze the factors that influence the context of sustainable mobility, focusing on purchase intention, perception of innovation, perception of legitimacy and uncertainty. A systematic literature review methodology was employed, covering articles published since 2005 in English and Spanish. The main results revealed a positive correlation between the availability of government incentives and purchase intention of electric vehicles, as well as the importance of effective communication of innovation to increase adoption. Furthermore, the relevance of uncertainty management and legitimacy as key factors was highlighted. In conclusion, these results have significant implications for the formulation of communication strategies, government incentive policies and the improvement of charging infrastructure to promote the adoption of electric vehicles and sustainable mobility.

This paper examines how participants in genetic counseling sessions interactionally manage situations where the results of tests to investigate the causes of identified fetal malformations are inconclusive or missing. The dataset consists of 54 audio-recorded interactions at a unit specialized in moderate- and high-risk pregnancies at a Brazilian public hospital. Conversation analysis was used to examine the data, revealing that the participants deployed interactional actions that exhibited highly negative valence toward diagnostic inconclusiveness, demonstrating that when there is a motivation for a medical examination, insofar as its results will serve as a basis for subsequent decision-making (in this case about future pregnancies), there is a preference for bad diagnostic news over absent or inconclusive diagnostic news. These findings are consistent with prior interactional studies.

Although uncertainty is common in the field of physiotherapy, little research has been conducted on the topic of uncertainty tolerance (UT). This study builds on previous research that explored UT in novice physiotherapists and identified their educational needs in relation to UT using the self-developed "Tolerance to Uncertainty in Physiotherapy" (TUP) questionnaire. The present work aims to explore UT in experienced physiotherapists, identify their educational needs regarding uncertainty management, and compare them with novice physiotherapists. A cross-sectional quantitative observational study was conducted involving 40 physiotherapists with an average work experience of 11.9 (7.52) years participated. The results show that the evaluated physiotherapists had a medium-high UT with 51 points (5.99) on the TUP scale. Years of experience could not be confirmed as a good predictor of UT, although a trend towards improved UT was observed (r= -0.075, p-value = 0.645). Experienced physiotherapists were less nervous or anxious about unknown diagnoses and had less difficulty switching off mentally. However, they were in agreement with novice physiotherapists in terms of requesting more diagnostic tests or more frequent appointments. Implementing educational programmes to improve UT during the training period and in experienced professionals is essential.

ABSTRACT: Critical treatments of Argentinian author Rodolfo Walsh’s watershed Operación Masacre (1957) often read the book as the explanatory force behind Walsh’s later commitments to the militant leftist Peronist Montoneros. In this article, I attempt to complicate such interpretations somewhat: first, by analyzing the nonpartisan and deliberative qualities of the text which eschew political pigeonholing, and second, by remembering Walsh’s shifting politics over the course of his life. Through close analysis of the text as well as later editions and paratexts, I show how Walsh’s performance of uncertainty and verification on the page paradoxically strengthen his call for remedial action and lends moral urgency to the work. RESUMEN: Los estudios críticos sobre Operación Masacre (1957), una obra fundamental del autor argentino Rodolfo Walsh, suelen encontrar en el libro la fuerza que explica los compromisos posteriores de Walsh con Montoneros, la militancia peronista de izquierda. En este artículo parto de esas interpretaciones e intento, en cierta medida, complejizarlas: en primer lugar, analizando las cualidades no partidistas y reflexivas del texto que eluden el encasillamiento político, y en segundo lugar, recordando los cambios políticos de Walsh a lo largo de su vida. A través de un análisis minucioso del texto, así como de ediciones posteriores y paratextos, muestro cómo la práctica que hace Walsh de la duda y la reflexión a través de la escritura fortalece, paradójicamente, el llamado a tomar medidas reparadoras y otorga urgencia moral a su obra.

Introduction: Family members of patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit present high uncertainty level due to not knowing what is happening and to not having clear details about the related events; therefore, interventions are required to allow modulating those levels. Objective: To evaluate the effect of an educational Nursing intervention compared to conventional care on the uncertainty of family members of patients hospitalized in an ICU. Materials and methods: An experimental study with a sample comprised by 132 relatives of patients admitted to an ICU, randomly distributed in four Solomon groups (33 in each group). The Nursing intervention based on the concepts of the Uncertainty in Illness Theory was applied to both experimental groups and devised under the Whittemore and Grey parameters with three moments: assessment; education about the relative's hospitalization in the ICU; and accompaniment. This was done with pre-assessments for two groups and post-assessments for the four groups, using the PPUS-FM Uncertainty Scale. The data were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics and respective non-parametric analyses. The study took into account the ethical principles in research. Results: The family members in the experimental groups presented a lower final uncertainty level when compared to the control groups, with a difference of 73.04 points and a p-value of 0.001. Discussion: Standardized interventions and under a theoretical model allow reducing uncertainty in relatives of patients in ICUs. Conclusions: The Nursing intervention based on the Uncertainty theory allows reducing uncertainty in relatives of patients hospitalized in an Intensive Care Unit.

In addition to environmental degradation, unequal distribution of wealth, socio-natural disasters, and the crisis of democracy, the COVID-19 pandemic increased the perception of urban discontent. Historically, this perception has contributed to the generation of both apocalyptic and utopian visions, which have been associated with the built space in which they occur. This article reflects on the relationship between urban discontent and urban utopia, presenting a critical examination of urban futures imagined by architecture students in two international workshops that took place in 2020, when all participants were in lockdown.

Land value patterns show very distinct spatial associations with accessibility to urban centralities and physical factors in a territory. However, predictions based on models of this structure can be highly uncertain, as the underlying data also may show clustering (thus allowing for better predictions in more densely sampled areas). An assessment of this uncertainty for land value extrapolations in the the San José Metropolitan Region of Costa Rica is presented, via conditional Gaussian simulation, and the determinants of this uncertainty were explored, to find spatial strengths and weaknesses in the modeling efforts. The E-Type prediction from the conditional Gaussian simulation was found to marginally improve on ordinary kriging methods and it also provided explicit uncertainty patterns, which are the inverse of the land value prediction. The estimated uncertainty was found to decrease with characteristics that identify suitability for urban land use (and thus higher land values).

We use Twitter content to generate an indicator of attention allocated to inflation. The analysis corresponds to Argentina for the period 2012-2019. The attention index provides valuable information regarding future levels of inflation. A one standard deviation increment in the index is followed by an increment of approximately 0.4% in inflation in the consecutive month. Out-of-sample exercises confirm that social media content allows for gains in forecast accuracy. Beyond point forecasts, the index provides valuable information regarding inflation uncertainty. The proposed indicator compares favorably with other indicators such as media content, media tweets, google search intensity and consumer surveys.

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze spirituality in the process of illness uncertainty in cancer patients. Methods: This is a qualitative study, in which Merle Mishel’s Theory of Uncertainty of Disease was used as a theoretical framework; and as a methodological reference, the stages of Bardin’s Content Analysis. As a technique for obtaining information, a semi-structured interview was used. Results: Spirituality in the uncertainty of the disease varies from patient to patient and acts in a unique way. They presented readaptation attitudes in their reports. The presence of spirituality in their lives acted as the main force mechanism to deal with the uncertainty of the disease, and this moment was called by Mishel “probabilistic thinking”. Conclusion: Patients demonstrated readaptation attitudes in their reports, and spirituality acted as the main mechanism of strength to deal with uncertainty in the disease

This paper presents an analytical framework that captures the informational problems and tradeoffs that policy makers face when choosing between public goods (e.g., infrastructure) and industrial policies (e.g., firm or sector-specific subsidies). The paper first provides a discussion of the literature on industrial policies. It then presents an illustrative model, where the economy consists of a set of firms that vary by productivity and a government that can support firms through general or targeted expenditures. The paper examines the cases of full and asymmetric information on firm productivity. Working under full information, it describes the first-best allocation of government resources among firms according to their productivity. It then introduces uncertainty by restricting information regarding firm productivity to be private to the firm. The paper develops an optimal contract (which replicates the first-best) consisting of a tax-based mechanism that induces firms to reveal their true productivity. As this requires high government capacity, the paper considers other simpler policies, one of which is the provision of public goods to all firms. The paper concludes that providing public goods is likely to dominate industrial policies under most scenarios, especially when government capacity is low.

In the context of the pandemic, the absence of a concert serves as a heuristic tool to see what migrant musicians of the orchestra Orpheus XXI (Jordi Savall) in France and Germany do during this time. The lack of concerts impacts their economic income, their daily and family lives, and reduce the practice of their profession as musicians; they develop strategies to compensate this lack. The pandemic also exposes and reinforces inequalities in economic and professional status between musicians.

Las metodologías para el cálculo del riesgo de mercado han sido aplicadas principalmente a economías de países desarrollados. En este trabajo de investigación se propone utilizar el CAPM para determinar el riesgo de mercado y rendimiento mínimo esperado de las empresas del sector corporativo de Ecuador para el periodo 2009-2019. En promedio se analizaron 48 667 empresas, con base en la información obtenida de la Superintendencia de Compañías, Valores y Seguros (SCVS). Los sectores que fueron analizados de acuerdo con la Clasificación Industrial Internacional Uniforme (CIIU). En los cálculos se utilizó un Beta contable, considerando el incipiente desarrollo de la bolsa de valores del país; se realizó una estimación por mínimos cuadrados ordinarios y se propuso un ROE ajustado. Además, se calculó el rendimiento mínimo esperado del sector por medio del CAPM. Entre los principales hallazgos se destaca que los sectores B, C, G, H, J, M, y N tienen un Beta mayor a 1, es decir, estos sectores son más sensibles ante una variación en el mercado. También es importante mencionar que los sectores P, G, C, E, J y Q tienen un desempeño mejor al esperado. La información proporcionada sirve como apoyo para las organizaciones u otros grupos de interés, considerando el alto nivel de incertidumbre en el mercado.

Context: This article presents the real-time estimation of temperature (°C) and relative humidity ( %) (interval of 16 seconds) for the city of Bogota DC via the Internet of Things (IoT). Method: This prototype is based on the Arduino ESP8266 NodeMCU module and the DHT11 sensor, as well as on a server-client HTPP communication protocol viaWi-Fi, with remote access to information. 16 sensors were installed in Bogota DC. These sensors send the observed data to the MATLAB storage cloud (ThingSpeak) via theWi-Fi module and can be downloaded in real-time. The temperature (°C) and relative humidity ( %) values were calibrated based on measurements made by the TTH002-certified digital thermo-hygrometer. Results: Based on the average temperature and relative humidity obtained, two maps were elaborated by implementing QGis: one with the isotherms and another one with isohumes. The inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation algorithm was used. Conclusions: The use of monitoring devices based on the IoT significantly contributes to automating meteorological data and structuring and utilizing robust databases in the field of Civil Engineering. Thus, the real-time transmission of temperature and relative humidity data allows for the online analysis of variables. Finally, the term adaptive dynamic cartography is proposed, which is associated with the generation of maps via the IoT, through which changes in the observed variables are displayed in real time, which allows monitoring the variables making adjustments based on an interpolation algorithm, as well as automatically and instantaneously generating isolines, which significantly reduces the uncertainty implied by the spatial-temporal resolution of current cartography.

One of the methodological conclusions of the prospective studies is that the acceleration of social changes, in association with the greater density of interrelationships in a globalized world, results in a greater frequency of crises. Crises that feed each other increasing their intensity and amplitude of effects. Crises are defined by their causes, as well as by the type, extent, and intensity of the damage they cause, although they all share one element in common: uncertainty. Uncertainty is an emotion that, according to various psychological theories, is the generator of other emotions that are activated secondarily. Emotions such as fear, frustration, or anger. The way in which emotions affect the perception and assessment of the intervention and control exercised by the State over social life is of fundamental interest. Particularly in the potential processes of legitimation of political movements based essentially on emotional mobilization. An empirical investigation is presented here on the emotional effects generated in European societies by the 2020 pandemic crisis. Using data from the survey ZA7738, and after a critical analysis of the measurement of emotions in comparative research, a study of the relational structure of emotions is carried out. Two clusters of emotions are determined: the uncertainty-fear dimension and a second dimension of a polar nature with anger-frustration at one end and hope at the opposite. Both constructs are consistent with the emotional models considered in psychology. Finally, a structural model is specified and adjusted relating the emotional dimensions with the opinions about economy, health, and freedom. The variable that measures having been, planning to be or not expecting to be economically affected by the pandemic crisis shows significant explanatory power for frustration, opposition to the restriction of freedoms for health reasons or that the measures cause greater economic damage than the health benefits. In an opposite sense, uncertainty and fear explain a greater acceptance of the restriction of freedoms for health reasons, the opinion that the health benefit is greater than the economic damage, as well as reinforcing the emotions of anger and frustration.

Background: There is a growing attention toward the construct of courage from a psychological point of view; recently, courage has been related with numerous positive individual behaviors and outcomes, such as coping strategies and subjective wellbeing, and an increasing number of studies explore the role of courage in the working and organizational environments. The present study is aimed to analyze the effect that individual courage—together with risk intelligence—and workplace social courage have on working performance; Methods: The participants are 961 Italian workers, balanced by gender; the measures used are: Courage, Subjective Risk Intelligence Scale, Workplace Social Courage Scale, and Performance Scale. Data were analyzed using Structural Equation Models; Results: The results show the effect of subjective risk intelligence and courage on working performance, both directly and through the mediation of workplace social courage; Conclusions: Suggestions for further research and practical implications are discussed.

El contexto político-social, convulso y tenso, que tradicionalmente ha presentado Latinoamérica y el Caribe parece que, en lugar de minimizarse, puede serlo todavía más por culpa de los impactos económicos que está dejando en la región la reciente pandemia sanitaria que azota al mundo. La COVID 19 golpea con mayor crudeza a los países en desarrollo, que ya se encontraban en una complicada situación en lo político, económico y social, de precariedad y desigualdad, y que, con esta crisis sanitaria mundial no hará más que empeorar. Esta crisis afecta todos los órdenes socioeconómicos y, como no podía ser de otra manera esto también se verá reflejado en el sector turístico, el cual, antes de la pandemia se identificaba por la gran mayoría de los Gobiernos de la región como uno de los ejes tractores para impulsar el desarrollo económico. Una industria que se consideraba clave por su capacidad de repercutir en todos los extractos sociales y fundamentalmente por su capacidad de crecimiento en el medio plazo, pero que lamentablemente se vio golpeada de lleno por las consecuencias colaterales producidas por la pandemia sanitaria y que dieron al traste con la gran mayoría de estrategias turísticas. The convulsive and tense political-social context that Latin America and the Caribbean have traditionally presented seems that, instead of being minimized, it may be even more so because of the economic impacts that the recent health pandemic that is hitting the world is leaving in the region . COVID 19 hits developing countries the hardest, which were already in a complicated political, economic and social situation, of precariousness and inequality, and which, with this global health crisis, will only get worse. This crisis affects all socioeconomic orders and, how could it be otherwise, this will also be reflected in the tourism sector, which, before the pandemic, was identified by the vast majority of the governments of the region as one of the axes tractors to drive economic development. An industry that was considered key due to its ability to have an impact on all social sectors and mainly due to its growth capacity in the medium term, but which unfortunately was hit squarely by the collateral consequences produced by the health pandemic and that ruined with the vast majority of tourist strategies.

Objective: to analyze the meaning attributed by parents to the extended and permanent survival of childhood cancer., Method: qualitative narrative inquiry, developed with parents of adolescents and young adults who survived childhood cancer. Recruitment and data collection involved virtual and in-person approaches. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed according to reflective thematic analysis., Results: a total of ten parents were included in the study. Two thematic narrative syntheses were constructed: "Times of war"; and "Time of uncertain peace", with their respective sub-themes. The cancer diagnosis marks the beginning of times of war in the parents' lives. They experience cancer treatment as "highs and lows" with potential threats to their children's lives. After that, "Time of uncertain peace" are reached, and the balance of the family unit is reestablished. However, the fear of recurrence makes the family peace uncertain, and its maintenance requires constant vigilance and attention to the signs and symptoms of a possible new battle., Conclusion: the results highlight the experience of being a parent of a childhood cancer survivor and can be applied to develop models of care centered on the survivors' family.

Introduction: Inconsistent use of protective preventive measures and nonadherence of the guidelines set by the World Health Organization regarding the coronavirus are associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as well as increased health care costs. Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the role of COVID-19 related worries, conspiracy beliefs, and uncertainty in adherence to preventative measures in Iran. Method: In a large survey with data collected online from a volunteer sample of 599 individuals, assessments were made of the distress associated with the anticipated potential consequences associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown, extent of agreement with conspiracy beliefs, level of situation-specific uncertainty, and self-reports of compliance with preventive measures. Data were analyzed to explore paths leading to nonadherence to safety guidelines proposed by the medical authorities. Results: A large majority of individuals report significant distress and worry associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Results indicate that increasing levels of situation-specific uncertainty intolerance, as well as conspiracy beliefs regarding the coronavirus, are associated with non-compliance with the advised protocols. Specifically, the results show that worries related to the COVID-19 pandemic are linked to non-compliance with preventive measures through conspiracy beliefs and feelings of uncertainty associated with the COVID-19 situation even after gender, education, and perceived socioeconomic status were controlled. Conclusions: Findings imply that emotional exhaustion is likely to have set in and become counterproductive as people choose to violate safety guidelines. The authors discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.

The underlying uncertainty in digital humanities research data affects decision-making and persists during a project’s lifecycle. This uncertainty is inevitable since most empirical claims cannot be assessed against an absolute truth (Drucker 2011; Binder et al. 2014). This situation has been previously recognized together with the need to report the degrees of uncertainty that accompany such claims (Blau 2011). Although TEI makes it possible to annotate text with notions of certainty or precision, examples of actual projects taking advantage of this are scarce. There are many possible explanations for uncertainty’s lack of visibility in computationally supported humanities research; among them, the need for tools specifically designed to address the goal of defining and managing uncertainty stands out. Thus, efforts to provide technical support for humanities research should focus on managing and making uncertainty more transparent, rather than removing it. Another challenge is the fact that there is no agreement on a generic taxonomy for the different types of uncertainty that researchers may face. Various researchers across disciplines, working on varying projects and data sets, can use different categories to classify the uncertainties present in a particular case. In this paper, we introduce a collaborative platform for collective annotation of TEI data sets. We briefly present the flexible taxonomy of uncertainty used in the platform and describe two data sets used for its testing. Then we describe use cases of annotations available on the platform, and how they translate into TEI annotations. Creating and interpreting annotations with and without uncertainty should now be easier, especially for researchers who do not know TEI markup.

E. Morin has been declaring for a long time that radical changes in pedagogical paradigm and educational actions are needed, especially due to the pandemic crisis, which has led to a rediscovery of uncertainty in our life. For this reason, it is necessary to start reflecting on this experience as an educational category, both at an epistemological and existential level. This operation requires the training of skills related to the way of thinking and the way in which personal and Community educational actions are thought, in order to live uncertainty as one of positive and unavoidable human experience. In this regard, it is possible to identify an anthropological harmony between Morin’s insights, phenomenology and psychoanalysis, referred in particular to issues of uncertainty, complexity and “ecology of action”. The article, starting from a field experience in educational and formative ecosystems, aims to define a possible pedagogical anthropology’s proposal, focused to the issues of uncertainty and complexity.

Abstract Social decisions are often made under great uncertainty - in situations where political principles, and even standard subjective expected utility, do not apply smoothly. In the first section, we argue that the core of this problem lies in decision theory itself - it is about how to act when we do not have an adequate representation of the context of the action and of its possible consequences. Thus, we distinguish two criteria to complement decision theory under ignorance - Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and Wald’s maximin criterion. After that, we apply this analysis to political philosophy, by contrasting Harsanyi’s and Rawls’s theories of justice, respectively based on Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and Wald’s maximin rule - and we end up highlighting the virtues of Rawls’s principle on practical grounds (it is intuitively attractive because of its computational simplicity, so providing a salient point for convergence) - and connect this argument to our moral intuitions and social norms requiring prudence in the case of decisions made for the sake of others.

This is an experimental work on seventy load cells which aims to highlight the difference between results out of force, proving instruments calibration according to ISO 376:2011 and its practical use. It spots on the difference between the relative error of repeatability and reproducibility and their contributions on load cells classifications, uncertainty estimation and calibration time. Results show that there is no significant effect for relative error of repeatability on load cell classification, ignoring the relative repeatability error in estimating the relative expanded uncertainty lead to decrease with values between 1 ppm and 270 ppm in the range from 20% to 50% of load cell capacity and by values between 1 ppm and 183 ppm in the range from 50% to 100% of the load cell capacity. It is concluded that performing measurements to calculate the relative error of repeatability is not effective in the normal calibration process for the examined seventy load cells, further measurements over subsequent years are recommended to ensure results reproducibility aiming to generalize the conclusion and recommend measurements for the relative repeatability error for load cell conformity assessment after manufacturing.

Resumen: Más no es siempre mejor en la clínica, pues de lo que se trata es de hacer el 100% de lo que se precisa y no hacer el 100% de lo innecesario. Para ello, es clave controlar juiciosamente la incertidumbre clínica y aprender a «esperar y ver». Abstract: More is not always better in the clinic because the point is to do 100% of what is needed and not to do 100% of what is unnecessary. Key to this is managing judiciously clinical uncertainty and learning to manage the clinical inertia.

The purpose of the article is to analyze the structur-al dimensions of the social production of delivery and birth in the context of covid-19 in Uruguay, focus-ing on women’s experiences, based on the dialogue between critical medical anthropology and feminist anthropology. Through a qualitative and exploratory methodology, secondary data are linked to the inter-views of eight women of medium-high socio-educational level. We conclude that their experiences, care trajec-tories and strategies deployed, were crossed by fears and uncertainties regarding respect for their enshrined rights during the care of pregnancy, childbirth and birth in the health services by appealing to arguments of exceptionality. This article contributes to the under-standing of the cases’ continuities and exceptionalities, taking into account the variables of gender, class and nationality. Additionally, this article also contributes to the fruitful development of dialogues between both conceptual approaches

El proceso de toma de decisiones tiene una incidencia relevante en los resultados de las empresas, lo que ha llevado a desarrollar novedosos métodos que permitan evaluar bajo condiciones no controlables elementos subjetivos y racionales. En ese sentido, el objetivo principal de este trabajo estudia los operadores de agregación en la toma de decisiones en entornos inciertos. Se presentan dos metodologías que permiten agregar información, que se llaman operadores OWA y BON-OWA. La aplicación de estos operadores se realiza en la selección de lanzamiento de nuevos productos. La principal ventaja de estos operadores es que permiten capturar la actitud del decisor y la comparación e interrelación continua de la información. Así, se destaca el análisis holístico que ofrecen estos métodos sobre la toma de decisiones en incertidumbre, que permite integrar conceptos de la teoría administrativa y la teoría de la agregación en un caso aplicado, visualizando como la inclusión de la información genera cambios dentro de los rankings de selección de alternativas. || Decision-making has a relevant incidence on firms results, which has led to develop novel methods that allow assessing subjective and rational elements under uncontrollable conditions. In this sense, the main aim of this work is to study aggregation operators in decision-making in uncertain environments. Two methodologies allow aggregating information are presented, which are called OWA and BON-OWA operators. The application of these operators is made in the selection of new product release. The main advantage of these operators is that they allow to capture the attitude of the decision maker and the continuous comparison and interrelation of the information. Thus, the holistic analysis offered by these methods on decision making in uncertainty is highlighted, which allows to integrate concepts of administrative and aggregation theories in an applied case, visualizing how the inclusion of information generates changes within the selection of alternatives.

This study contributes to the field of political marketing through the use of instruments based on the Theory of Forgotten Effects. According to this theory, when individuals attribute value to the incidences or connections between two sets of entities, with one set acting as the cause and the other as effect, intervening elements sometimes remain hidden, thus resulting in forgotten effects. To demonstrate the above, a group of citizens from the western Mexico City Metropolitan Area including the townships of Huixquilucan de Degollado and Naucalpan de Juárez in the State of Mexico were asked to determine the incidences between two sets of entities: on the one hand, issues from Mexico’s public agenda, and, on the other, the political attitudes of citizens. The interviews were collected shortly before the 2018 campaign for the presidency and other popularly elected offices began. The results show that the citizens did not identify several elements that are interpolated as forgotten effects between the two entities mentioned above, such as corruption, the economy, and trust in government leaders, among others.

Este artículo se propone establecer algunas conexiones y discusiones en torno al riesgo, la incertidumbre y la precariedad como categorías clave para el análisis de conflictos sociales en escenarios urbanos del Sur Global. Particularizando la mirada en procesos colectivos ligados al habitar, el trabajo y el ambiente, desde una Sociología de los Cuerpos/Emociones, se busca reponer algunas de las formas en las que el riesgo y la incertidumbre moldean “cuerpos precarios” en la actual fase de acumulación capitalista. En base al análisis cualitativo de material empírico colectado, se mapean algunas de las formas en que el riesgo, la incertidumbre y la precariedad se materializan en las prácticas, experiencias y emociones de los sujetos. Para alcanzar dicho objetivo, se ha seleccionado la siguiente estrategia expositiva. En primer lugar, se presenta una breve sistematización de las nociones de riesgo, incertidumbre y precariedad, recuperando los principales aportes efectuados desde las Ciencias Sociales. Sobre esta base, se plantea una aproximación teórica a los “cuerpos precarios”, enfatizando la relevancia de una mirada desde la conflictividad social. En segundo lugar, se sintetizan escenas conflictuales seleccionadas en torno al habitar, el ambiente y el trabajo que han tenido lugar en los últimos años en contextos urbanos de Argentina, estableciendo enlaces teóricos con las nociones de riesgo, incertidumbre y precariedad desde una Sociología de los Cuerpos/Emociones. Finalmente, a modo de conclusión, se abren algunas pistas que señalan la relevancia teórico-epistemológica de observar el conflicto como un modo de acercamiento a las “sociedades del riesgo”, indicando ciertos sentidos en que la habitabilidad, el ambiente y el trabajo configuran marcas en los “cuerpos precarios” del Sur Global en el siglo XXI. This article aims at making some connections and raising the issues regarding risk, uncertainty and precariousness as key categories to analyze social conflict in Global South sceneries. Pointing at collective processes linked to inhabiting, working and living in polluted environments, from a Sociology of Bodies/Emotions we pretend to clarify some of the ways in which risk and uncertainty shape “precarious bodies” in the current phase of capitalist accumulation. In base of an analysis of qualitative empirical material, how risk uncertainty and precariousness became materialized in practices, experiences and emotions is displayed. To reach that objective, the following strategy is followed: First, a brief systematisation of the concepts of risk, uncertainty and precariousness is presented, going over the main findings made in Social Sciences. Then, a theoretical approach on precarious bodies is laid out, stressing its link to a perspective from social conflict. Secondly, some conflict scenes on habitat, environment and labour in urban context are summarised, then connecting them to the notions of risk, uncertainty and precariousness from a Sociology of Bodies/Emotions. Finally, as an open conclusion, some lines pointing at the theoretical-epistemological importance of looking at conflict as a way of approaching “risk societies” are delineated, indicating some of the ways in which habitability, environment and labour configure “precarious bodies” in XXIst Century Global South.

Context: Approaches to logistics solutions through mathematical optimization are widely studied in the literature given their importance for business operations and their computational complexity. In this way, studying the uncertainty associated to operations is a key factor in modeling and decision-making. Method: A stochastic mathematical model is proposed for the Inventory Routing Problem (IRP), considering scenarios with variation in the demands. To obtain a suitable approach, a p-robustness approach and the reformulation of the classical IRP are presented. Results: The performed experiments show the benefits of including uncertainty through a p-robust approach when they are analyzed within an instance of the IRP. Moreover, given the selected modeling, the benefits of combining the approaches can be analyzed. Conclusions: The development of stochastic approaches for decision-making applied to the IRP allow analysts to handle uncertainty and also reduce the complexity of decision when combining different types of problems (Routing + Inventory) in the same model.

In this work we summarize the different and more used approaches and policies found in the literatura to measure the robustness and stability of solutions for scheduling problems. These policies are based in the analysis of proactive scheduling problems with an approach of planning scenes. Moreover, we present and review the more recent studies developed to measure the robustness and the stability of solutions for uncertainty scheduling problems and we suggest future lines of research.

Although much effort has been dedicated to the management of the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), managers have yet to incorporate economic aspects to ensure sustainable and profitable exploitation of this fishery resource. We developed a bioeconomic model that incorporated the uncertainty for the r and K parameters. We fit 3 models (Schaefer, Fox, and Pella–Tomlinson) to abundance index survey data and used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The best fit corresponded to the Schaefer model. We built deterministic and stochastic versions of the Gordon–Schaefer model. Economic data (costs and prices) were determined from inter[1]views with fishermen. To estimate the posterior distributions of parameters and indicators, we used Bayesian methods with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The deterministic results suggested that the maximum sustainable income was Mex$851.70 million, with a fishing effort of 3,650 fishing boats, while the maximum sustainable profit was $390.8 million, with a fishing effort of 2,472 fishing boats. The equilibrium point corresponded to an effort of 4,945 fishing boats. Regarding the stochastic model, the MCMC simulation results suggest that the maximum sustainable income distribution was not normal; its average was $856.1 million (SE 1.8) and the most likely value was $849.50 million. The most likely fishing effort at equilibrium was 4,970 fishing boats. Our results suggest the fishery could be operating close to the economic equilibrium point; if this is the case, fishing effort must decrease in order for annual profit to increase. Our approach will help make periodical re-evaluations of the fishery and establish management strategies to ensure the profitable and sustainable exploitation of the red octopus on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Having Casablanca as a field site, this article situates heterosexual love and intimacy in the lives of young women experiencing social precariousness, including the uncertain non-status of unmarried mothers. Ethnographic insights broadly question love ideals and practices in Morocco, suggesting that these are simultaneously informed by socio-cultural and political-economic processes. It will be argued that women imagine and craft potential futures from an uncertain condition at the intersection of normative boundaries to non-marital sexuality and childbirth and socio- economic inequalities.

In this introductory discussion, we argue that uncertainty can be seen as a common feature of Mediterranean countries beyond their varying histories and social realities. Such sense of uncertainty regarding the present and the future – strongly linked to economic instability and political turbulences – is analysed in this special issue through examples from the South and the North of the Mediterranean. A particular focus is laid on innovative forms of resilience, understood as actors’ capacities to adapt or deal successfully with change, or with challenging circumstances. However, we also discuss the limitations and potential misuses of the concept when applied uncritically. Equally important in the case studies presented here, in Greece as in Portugal, in Morocco and Tunisia as in the Italian case is the investigation of social actors’ perception of the future. Times of crisis and the capacity to aspire, anticipation and the individual or collective imagination: these are topics also investigated by the articles of this special issue, which are not only contributions to Mediterranean anthropology but also to the anthropology of the future. Altogether, the articles scrutinise how powerful imaginations of potential futures and orientations to the yet-to-come are in structuring individual and collective experience in times of political and economic uncertainty.

Abstract Passion fruit crop yield depends on the behavior of climatic variables, and modeling the dependence relationship of these variables regarding crop yield offers information aimed at facilitating agribusiness decision making. As main aim, passion fruit crop yield was estimated using mathematical models. A multivariate and univariate statistical analysis of meteorological variables was carried out during the observation period between 2007 and 2014 of selected weather stations, identified and located in the Colombian middle tropics (County of Huila). The relationship between yield with the following agroclimatic variables were analyzed: temperature, sunlight, relative humidity, rainfall and ENSO at monthly resolution with empirical and mechanistic models, recommended in scientific literature. Results showed that the multiple regression model requires the highest yield peaks; the adjustment of the multiple regression model is low, while univariate models such as the ARIMA model showed better adjustment in the time series analyzed. The Stewart’s water-yield model has better performance to estimate yield as a function of evapotranspiration in the different phenological phases.

Confines, defined as spaces of blurry boundaries and powers interpenetration, are most traditionally studied in geopolitics contexts at the national level. In this paper, we highlight the presence of such spaces at the urban scale, as a product of political fragmentation, drawing from empirical evidence in Lima, Peru. Through a geohistorical analysis, a morphological examination, and a qualitative fieldwork, we show how these confines produce urban uncertainty and precarity. In a local context of undetermined administrative boundaries justifying territorial disputes between municipalities, we turn to the analysis of the practices of political informality between municipal authorities and inhabitants as well as the inhabitants' strategies to adapt themselves to this context of urban geopolitics. This will show that these practices produce an original form of urbanity and citadinity. The dynamics of the urban fabric and territorial control reveal confines as geographical spaces that combine precariousness and informality, the latter being a constraint and a resource both for municipalities and inhabitants. The discussion of urban confines in relation to urban margins leads us to a reflection on precariousness, stressing the role of relationships of power and trust developed in these disputed and uncertain territories.

ABSTRACT Fernando Cardim de Carvalho’s monumental intellectual legacy encompasses many elements - his teaching, his mentoring, his scholarship, and his policy activism. This essay explores Cardim’s contributions to Post-Keynesian economics through the lens of his 31 publications in refereed English-language journals. After applying some bibliometric analysis to these articles, we undertake a chronological review of the themes developed in Cardim’s publications on theoretical topics in Keynesian economics. This is followed by a clarification and defense of Cardim’s distinctive methodology. We then undertake a chronological review of the articles containing his critical analyses of development policy. This side-by-side comparison of Cardim’s theoretical and policy pre-occupations through time clarifies their close interconnection. We conclude by examining the craft of writing in Cardim’s work, as he was an economist whose impact stemmed not just what he said, but from how he said it. Seeing Fernando Cardim de Carvalho’s scholarship from these different angles - his multidimensional contributions as a scholar, as a theorist, a critic, and as a crafter of prose - permits a full appreciation of both the range and depth of his work as a Keynesian economist.

ABSTRACT The method used to sample the runoff collected from soil erosion plots can be a significant source of error. In this study, we performed a laboratory experiment to evaluate the efficiency of the runoff sampling method most commonly used in Brazil. It is based on the manual homogenization and sampling of the collected runoff. Using soil material with 583 g kg–1 of sand and 89 g kg–1 of clay, the manual sampling method was tested for its ability to produce representative samples of artificial suspensions with a concentration of 2, 10 and 50 g L–1 of total solids. An underestimation of 30 % or more of the concentration of total solids was observed, with a variation of the same magnitude (CV between 20 and 45 %). We then developed a prototype sample splitter to replace the manual sampling method and tested it using the same artificial suspensions. The splitter was efficient in producing samples representative of the artificial suspensions, even without altering the particle size distribution of the total solids. Both absolute percentage errors (|< 5 %|) and the variation between five replicates (CV < 3 %) were small. The problems with the manual method are due to the inefficient homogenization that facilitates the differential sedimentation of particles of different sizes. If these problems are also found in other areas, then the prototype that we developed is a reasonable alternative.

This paper presents in non-technical language an interpretation of the argument of The General Theory, which is the importance of effective demand and its relation to human agency. It argues that The General Theory is not only a treatise on economic theory, but also, and more importantly, a treatise on methodology, i.e. how economists should reason when dealing with the complexity of the real world. Implicit in this analysis is a distinct position on the remit of the economist and the nature of economic advice and policy. This interpretation suggests that this understanding forms a new paradigm of thinking about the economy at large, centred around the concept of uncertainty. This insight developed into a new analytical tradition in economics, the Post Keynesian School of economic thought that sees uncertainty and effective demand as the key analytical long term concepts for understanding how the economy evolves through time.

The topic of luck has recently attracted new interest in anthropological literature, focusing on its role in understanding economic cosmologies. Lucky chances stand out in comparative perspective as a crucial cultural theme in contemporary western society, where the notion that unpredictability is a key feature of the social world is emphasized. I explore this topic in a research based on in-depth interviews with young women having finished education during the post-crisis years in Milan. A comparison is drawn between the narratives of university educated women and women who left school early.

ABSTRACT Objective: The purpose of this study was to understand, based on the Mishel’s Theory of Uncertainty in Illness and the Theory of Transitions of Meleis, in which way uncertainty in illness and the unexpected mediated the process of nurse-family communication and are translated into lived experience of the family. Method: Considering the intentionality of the research, it fits into a qualitative paradigm and a phenomenological approach, according to Van Manen. Participants were referred to as “snowball” and the data collection was performed by interview with open questions. Results: In the analysis of the data, three essential themes were identified: The antecedents of uncertainty: condition inherent to the subject; The process of assessing uncertainty: capacities and opportunities; The way to deal with uncertainty: coping strategies. Conclusion and implications for practice: Family member who lives the uncertainty has personal conditions that influence the process of appreciation and deal with uncertainty. The communication that establishes with the nurses, in particular in the search for information, will be mediated by the experience of uncertainty, in a constant unforeseen. The adaptation that is desired and demanded arises from coping strategies developed, with the nurses too, considering uncertainty a danger or an opportunity.

The exceptional work of Edmond Jabès benefited from abundant critical readings coming from multiple horizons. Nevertheless, one can observe a clear imbalance in favour of the volumes that constitute Le Livre des questions or, at least, the absence of in-depth studies analysing systematically the notion of “resemblance” and those other notions that, being closely associated with it, make it fully meaningful. This study, by making its way through the maze of concepts and images that Jabès elaborated around a poetic intuition, tries to understand the no-tion of resemblance, and the uncertainty that naturally accompanies it, through the experience of exile, the quest for thresholds, the practice of writing. L’œuvre exceptionnelle d’Edmond Jabès s’est épanchée sous l’impulsion de nombreuses lectures critiques venant d’horizons multiples. On constate néan-moins un déséquilibre en faveur des volumes qui constituent Le Livre des ques-tions ou, tout du moins, l’absence de travaux approfondis analysant de manière systématique la notion de ressemblance et celles qui, y étant étroitement associées, la rendent pleinement significative. Cette étude, en se frayant un chemin dans le dédale de concepts et d’images que Jabès a élaborés autour d’une intuition poétique, tente ainsi de comprendre la notion de ressemblance, et l’incertitude qui tout naturellement l’accom¬pagne, à travers l’expérience de l’exil, la recherche du seuil, la pratique de l’écriture.

The water balance of an irrigation project in the Chilean semi-arid zone was modelled using the WEAP21 code. A combined deterministic/stochastic protocol was applied for defining the hydrological prediction intervals of the model. Climate Change potential implications on the useful life of the irrigation project (year 2070) were predicted considering the variability in precipitation and temperature forecasts. Thereto, it was considered the scenario A1B of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, generated by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS-ECHAM, specially developed for Chilean conditions. The study revealed that most of the inspected hydrological model parameters are insensitive to model predictions and the associated simulation limits may be categorized as acceptable. Nevertheless, the structure of WEAP21 had difficulties representing low flows because of the apparent inability to mimic the complex hydro-physical characteristics of the shrink-swell granitic soils which are predominant in the study basin. Even though the original Climate Change projections (CChP) of the RCM were refined, using observations of the historical period, it is important to underline that significant uncertainties may remain and as such the current results should be handled with care. With respect to historical records, mean annual climate forecasts suggest a maximum temperature increment of about +1.1oC and a maximum reduction in precipitation of 20.7%. The hydrological modelling suggests a maximum reduction in the mean annual streamflow of 49.7% and a reduction in the magnitude and frequency of streamflow peaks. Bearing in mind the potential uncertainties attached to CChP, the irrigation project will most probably be significantly affected in terms of water availability and crop water consumption since rainfall is expected to decrease and temperature, and as such evapotranspiration, to increase.

Introducción: Los procesos de aprendizajes involucran necesariamente la interacción del que aprende y aquello que sirve como puente de comunicación, conocido como mediador, es importante tener presente que aprender de algún modo implica el hecho que confluyan campos mórficos que explican de alguna manera cómo evolucionan los sistemas vivos que co aprenden, que se reconfiguran para potencializar rutas aprendientes que están escritas en linderos de la complejidad y de la oralidad, la incertidumbre y en patrones de aprendizajes, que quedan registrados en estructuras de orden que privilegian tambien la reconfiguración permanente de los organismos y más que estos las células que los forman. Materiales y métodos: El enfoque usado en el proceso investigativo es de corte cualitativo, el cual permite una percepción holística de la realidad, en esos procesos de aprendizaje que cada comunidad ha ido construyendo y privilegiando en los perfiles que privilegian el aprender, el conocer, un caso particular e importante es el de las Cantoras de Colombia, quienes a través del tiempo han conservado su ancestralidad y han ido escribiendo en el campo akásico su conocimiento. Resultados y discusión: Los campos mórficos influyen dando como resultado un registro de conocimiento que se preserva en el tiempo y el espacio, hablando musicalmente: un canto sublime de átomos que dan saltos cuánticos cuando se reconfiguran para registrar en las neuronas mismas el conocimiento que cada ser pretende alcanzar y encuentra en el largo camino del aprender. En ese encuentro de miradas y voces, se fundamenta el artículo. Conclusiones: la educación requiere una transformación profunda, las reformas educativas son tan solo estrategias superficiales que dan respuesta o posibilidades de acciones, pero no abren caminos de solución a las diversas problemáticas en la que se encuentra inmersa. Considerar una mirada holística, permite asumir un papel mediador donde cada individuo va construyendo al ritmo de sus posibilidades, sus virtudes.

Within an anthropological framework, the social process of progressive contextualization of individuals, of acquisition of cultural resources, and of the necessary expertise and knowledge to move culturally and meaningfully into the social space is intended in terms of a progressive reduction of indeterminacy [Geertz 1987; Remotti 2013]. It is a process that produces new members of a society based on more or less rigid patterns. Starting from the evidence that uncertainty of the future unfolds contemporary societies, I propose a reflection on the processes that can cause a social expansion of uncertainty. From a theoretical point of view and on the basis of ethnographic indexes I present an analysis of some conditions that erode the sense of belonging, that kind of "feel at home" which is premise and result of social relationships based on the management of uncertainty of the future, and provoke moral and material conflicts (and even violence).

El siglo XXI presenta nuevos retos para los ejecutivos que deben diseñar estrategias en entornos inciertos y en constante cambio. Las herramientas de planeación tradicionales no ofrecen la fl exibilidad necesaria para adaptarse al dinamismo del entorno. Para solucionar ese problema, se propone incorporar los principios de lógica difusa en el análisis FODA, de tal manera que el planeamiento no sea tomado en términos absolutos e inmutables, sino como una gama de acciones que permitan responder mejor ante los cambios intempestivos de los mercados.

El presente documento pone a prueba en el sector del vestido en el centro del país, una metodología basada en la teoría de la incertidumbre y los subconjuntos borrosos para construir leyes de posibilidad de retirada del cliente con la empresa, con tan sólo la opinión subjetiva de expertos. La aportación del presente trabajo permite obtener un camino alternativo cuando no es posible contar con la información requerida por los modelos identificados en la literatura basados en principios derivados de las leyes del azar, incluso métodos heurísticos. Los resultados muestran la utilidad de los conceptos borrosos en un problema donde la incertidumbre en relación a la permanencia del cliente se hace evidente, permitiendo obtener un elemento necesario (tiempo), cuando se requiera medir el valor económico del cliente (Customer Lifetime Value: CLV) en el campo de la incertidumbre. ------------------------------------ The current work tests, in the dress sector in the center of the country, a methodology based in the theory of uncertainty and the fuzzy subsets, in order to build laws of possibilities for the retreat of clients only with the subjective opinion given by experts. The contribution of the present work allows to obtain an alternative path when it is not possible to get the required information by the models identified in the literature based in principles derived of the random laws even from heuristic methods. The results show the utility of fuzzy concepts in a problem where the uncertainty in relation to the permanence of the client is evident and allows to obtain a valuable element (time), when the Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is required to be measured in the field of uncertainty.