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This paper analyses the validity of the second-order model in the 2019 municipal elections. We focus, first, on the theoretical evolution that has transformed the model proposed by Reif and Schmitt (1980). Second, it evaluates the explanatory capacity of a model that does not fit with highly fragmented and heterogeneous units of analysis. Finally, a contextual analysis is presented to provide a more robust explanation of the 2019 Spanish municipal election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]