This paper analyses the validity of the second-order model in the 2019 municipal elections. We focus, first, on the theoretical evolution that has transformed the model proposed by Reif and Schmitt (1980). Second, it evaluates the explanatory capacity of a model that does not fit with highly fragmented and heterogeneous units of analysis. Finally, a contextual analysis is presented to provide a more robust explanation of the 2019 Spanish municipal election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
When do terrorist campaigns end? Why do terrorist groups decline? What are the causes of terrorist disbandment? What are the explanatory factors that account for individual and collective disengagement? This paper analyzes the case of Terra Lliure, a Catalan terrorist group active between 1979 and 1995, in order to identify the independent variables that determine the success or failure of terrorist groups. In accordance to the literature on political violence, the paper develops a multi-level argument that distinguishes three explanatory variables: (1) counter-terrorism; (2) organizational dynamics; and (3) individual factors. The article concludes that a counter-terrorist policy (macro level) based on increasing the cost of participation in an insurgent group is most successful when it coincides with organizational fragmentation (meso level) and individual burnout (micro level). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published
2016
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