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The present study compares the accuracy of automatic univariate time series forecasting methods for the value of the National Consumer Price Index of Mexico, for which monthly data from 1969 to 2021 are used. Two of the main methods are presented in the study area: 1) The Exponential Smoothing State Spatial Models (ETS) and 2) The Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models. A computational algorithm is developed for the identification of a data generating process to estimate the optimal parameters. The second method presents a better performance in the calculation of the predicted values. The results show the usefulness of automatic forecasting methods when proper procedures are followed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Copyright of Comunicaciones en Estadística is the property of Universidad Santo Tomas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Pasos: Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural is the property of Universidad de La Laguna, Instituto Universitario de Ciencias Politicas y Sociales and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Economía Coyuntural, Revista de Temas de Coyuntura y Perspectivas is the property of Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales Jose Ortiz Mercado (IIES-JOM) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Agrícolas is the property of Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Cuadernos de Vivienda y Urbanismo is the property of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Cuadernos de Vivienda y Urbanismo is the property of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Working Papers on Operations Management is the property of Editorial UPV and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Copyright of Revista CIENCIA UNEMI is the property of Universidad Estatal de Milagro (UNEMI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Se pronosticó, a corto plazo, la producción de leche por modelos ARIMA, en un estudio de caso en la Unidad Básica de Producción Cooperativa “Maniabo", de la provincia Las Tunas, en Cuba. Se utilizaron los datos de producción de leche mensual del período 2000-2010. Se utilizaron gráficas de ploteo horizontal y Box-Plot, para el análisis descriptivo de la serie y para encontrar la tendencia al suavizamiento polinomial. Con la aplicación de los períodogramas, se confirmaron los picos notables en los movimientos periódicos de la serie, la significación de una frecuencia y además, se detectó la estacionalidad, descrita con los índices estacionales. Se determinaron las correlaciones con la serie diferenciada y se estimaron los parámetros p y q del modelo. El mejor modelo ajustado fue un ARIMA (1,0,3) x (0,1,0) 12, con constante. Se pronosticó y se validó la producción de leche para el 2011. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

One of the most important uses of artificial neural networks is to forecast non-linear time series, although model-building issues, such as input selection, model complexity and parameters estimation, remain without a satisfactory solution. More of research efforts are devoted to solve these issues. However, other models emerged from statistics would be more appropriated than neural networks for forecasting, in the sense that the process of model specification is based entirely on statistical criteria. Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is a statistical model commonly used for solving nonlinear regression problems, and it is possible to use it for forecasting time series. Nonetheless, there is a lack of studies comparing the results obtained using MARS and neural network models, with the aim of determinate which model is better. In this paper, we forecast four nonlinear time series using MARS and we compare the obtained results against the reported results in the technical literature when artificial neural networks and the ARIMA approach are used. The main finding in this research, it is that for all considered cases, the forecasts obtained with MARS are lower in accuracy in relation to the other approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Copyright of Cuadernos de Administración is the property of Universidad del Valle and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Artificial neural networks are an important technique in nonlinear time series forecasting. However, training of neural networks is a difficult task, because of the presence of many local optimal points and the irregularity of the error surface. In this context, it is very easy to obtain under-fitted or over-fitted forecasting models without forecasting power. Thus, researchers and practitioner need to have criteria for detecting this class of problems. In this paper, we demonstrate that the use of well known methodologies in linear time series forecasting, such as the Box-Jenkins methodology or exponential smoothing models, are valuable tools for detecting bad specified neural network models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Box and Jenkins models have been used for modeling and forecasting of many economic and financial variables. In this article, that methodology was used as an alternative to analyze the long- term dynamics of the constant value unit. The final model was accepted after applying several standard tests of diagnostic. The SARIMA model was accepted after having used an amount of standard diagnostic tests, as result of it, the model fit well to the data, and explorative prediction accuracy is acquired when it represents the cycle patterns and for long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

In this paper, we analyse and compare the results obtained by the economical value of an investment project, through the traditional methods of project evaluation (VAN>0) and the real option methodology introduced by S. Myers in 1977. On this purpose, by using the Least Square Montecarlo (LSM), we value two possible American options, under two different investment strategies that we can apply for the first four years of the project lifetime; the first option is a simple wait option, the second one is a wait and expansion sequential compound option. The underlying evolution is modelled by an mean reversion process and an arithmetic Brownian process, based on historical data available. We concluded that the optimal strategy to implement was to sequentially invest in two steps: postponed the first step of two years and invests after this period 68% of the total capital allocated. In this step, the system only works at 75% of the required capacity. The second investment step needs four years more to be achieved and will represent 32% of the capital initially allocated: it will therefore complete the system capacity at 100%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Copyright of Estudios Gerenciales is the property of Universidad ICESI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) more...

Se ilustra el procedimiento para encontrar un modelo que sea útil para obtener pronósticos mensuales de un productos de limpieza en el mercado colombiano. Se hace explícita la metodología de Box y Jenkins para obtener el modelo final con un ejemplo del proceso completo de modelaje. Además, se presenta una comparación entre los niveles pronosticados y realizados extendiendo la utilización de distintos modelos para los diferents productos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

The aim of the paper is to analyze the current situation and perspectives, both at the short run and middle run, of the Mexican exportation maquiladora industry. It is to combine quantitative economic conjuncture analysis with its principal components, that is, the empiric base (statistical information in monthly time series, in this case Mexican aggregated value of exports by maquila services in total national and regional levels in Mexico) and the quantitative methods (statistical-econometrics techniques). For this purpose we present a methodological proposal that models the time series through ARIMA models with outliers and calendar effects, and next we use a reduced model-based procedure for the signal extraction of these time series. The trend cycle component is the appropriate way to analyze its underlying evolution. Using the concepts of underlying growth and inertia, we can extract the main conclusions for the current situation of the Mexican maquila sector, including the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...