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Previous studies of economic voting in Mexico have reached mixed conclusions about the role of economic performance on electoral behavior. In this paper, I argue that the effect of economic performance on voting is contingent upon two factors. First, even when voters perceive a weak economy and are dissatisfied with the incumbent, they differ on who the best replacement is. In the context of the 2006 campaign, López Obrador did not receive the support of many voters who thought the economy was weak because they perceived him as too large of a risk. Second, the impact of the economy is contingent upon its have a prominent place on the political agenda. The combination of high levels of economic vulnerability, the fall of the regime cleavage as an alternative motive for electoral choice, and the emphasis on economic issues in the campaign dialogue and advertising strategy of the major political parties in the 2006 election made economic issues especially salient. While the weak performance of the Mexican economy in 2001-2003 opened doors for the pan's challengers, the economic recovery in the second half of Fox's term thus proved sufficient to garner the narrow victory for Calderon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]