1. Leverages and Constraints for Turkish Foreign Policy in Syrian War: A Structural Balance Approach/Turk Dis Politikasinin Suriye Savasindaki Etkisi ve Sinirlari: Bir Yapisal Denge Yaklasimi
- Author
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Guner, Serdar S. and Koc, Dilan E.
- Subjects
Middle East -- Strategic aspects ,Syrian Uprising, 2011- -- Strategic aspects ,Balance of power -- Analysis ,Turkish foreign relations -- Analysis ,International relations ,Political science - Abstract
Various balance and imbalance conditions among the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran are analyzed to present how changes in the direction of conflict and cooperation disturb the regional balance in the Syria conflict. We find that given a stable hostility between the U.S. and Russia, and the stable friendship between Russia and Syria, Turkish preferences over coveting friendship and leaning toward enmity are central in the formation of balances. Turkey-Syria relations constitute a key for the balance in the region. A main Russian foreign-policy problem thus remains to help Turkey and Syria to conduct friendlier relations. A competition or an agreement between the U.S. and Russia over Kurdish independence underlies TFP alignment choices and a high likelihood of a protracted conflict for years to come in the Middle East.Keywords: Structural Balance Theory, Balance of Power, Unbalanced and Balanced Systems, Enmity and FriendshipBu makalede A.B.D., Rusya, Turkiye, Suriye, ve Iran arasindaki denge ve dengesizlik kosullarinin catisma ve isbirligi yonlerinden Suriye'deki catisma ve bolgesel denge degisimlerini nasil etkiledikleri cozumlenmektedir. Istikrarli A.B.D.-Rusya husumeti, Rusya-Suriye isbirligi altinda Turkiye'nin isbirligi ve catisma tercihleri dengelerin olusumunda merkezi bir rol oynamaktadir. Turkiye-Suriye iliskileri bolgedeki dengenin anahtaridir. Bu nedenle Rus dis politikasinin en onemli sorunu Turkiye ve Suriye'ye tekrar isbirligine donmelerinde yardimci olmaktir. A.B.D. ve Rusya arasinda Kurtlerin bagimsizligi yonunde rekabet ve anlasma Orta Doguda yuksek olasilikla yillar boyu surecek bir catismanin ve Turk dis politikasinin muttefik secimlerinin altinda yatmaktadir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Yapisal Denge Kurami, Gucler Dengesi, Dengede Olan ve Olmayan Sistemler, Dusmanlik ve Dostluk, IntroductionRealities of international politics reveal themselves with multiple facets. The conflict in Syria is no exception. It evolves at such a pace that changing alignments and strategic moves of involved [...]
- Published
- 2018