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A game of rock-paper-scissors is an interesting example of an interaction where none of the pure strategies strictly dominates all others, leading to a cyclic pattern. In this work, we consider an unstable version of rock-paper-scissors dynamics and allow individuals to make behavioural mistakes during the strategy execution. We show that such an assumption can break a cyclic relationship leading to a stable equilibrium emerging with only one strategy surviving. We consider two cases: completely random mistakes when individuals have no bias towards any strategy and a general form of mistakes. Then, we determine conditions for a strategy to dominate all other strategies. However, given that individuals who adopt a dominating strategy are still prone to behavioural mistakes in the observed behaviour, we may still observe extinct strategies. That is, behavioural mistakes in strategy execution stabilise evolutionary dynamics leading to an evolutionary stable and, potentially, mixed co-existence equilibrium., Author summary A game of rock-paper-scissors is more than just a children’s game. This type of interactions is often used to describe competition among animals or humans. A special feature of such an interaction is that none of the pure strategies dominates, resulting in a cyclic pattern. However, in wild communities such interactions are rarely observed by biologists. Our results suggest that this lack of cyclicity may stem from imperfectness of interacting individuals. In other words, we show analytically that heterogeneity in behavioural patterns may break a cyclic relationship and lead to a stable equilibrium in pure or mixed strategies.

In 1910 a crew from the American Museum of Natural History discovered a bone bed composed primarily of the large tyrannosaurid Albertosaurus sarcophagus in what is now Dry Island Buffalo Jump Provincial Park in Alberta, Canada. Study of the remains from the site allowed the first life table and survivorship curve for a non-avian dinosaur to be created. These have served as a model for subsequent studies of dinosaurian population biology. Since 2006, the discovery and preparation of hundreds of new elements from the bone bed stand to substantially increase the minimum number of individuals (MNI) represented. This would allow testing of previous conclusions regarding the population biology of these animals and refinement of our understanding of the patterns of survivorship. Here, four formerly unrecognized individuals from the Dry Island assemblage are revealed and a revised life table presented. As in the previous analysis, a left skewed age distribution and sigmoidal survivorship pattern were found. Annual mortality rates averaged 3.47% between ages two and 13 and then increased to a mean of 19.5% prior to extinction of the cohort after 28 years of age. Mean life expectancy for individuals surviving to two years of age was 15.19 years. Mid-life increase in attrition corresponds to entrance into the breeding population. The MNI is unlikely to substantially increase, and new individuals are unlikely to affect the pattern of survivorship inferred here. Nevertheless, future excavations stand to reveal more about the anatomical and pathological variance within the Dry Island Albertosaurus population.

Background Reduced susceptibility of mosquito vectors to currently used insecticides hampers control interventions. Recently pyriproxyfen, an insect growth regulator has been demonstrated to effectively reduce the reproductive potential in vector mosquitoes. Methods Pyriproxyfen (PPF), in different concentrations (0.75%, 0.075%, 0.0075%, and 0.00075%) was applied on papers and Indian wild type Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes (N ≥ 20 for each treatment) were exposed onto it as per WHO guidelines, to study the reproductive disruption. PPF concentration on treated papers was quantitatively cross-determined using HPLC method. Reduction in fecundity, fertility and adult emergence in exposed female Ae. aegypti was determined. Abnormal development in ovary and eggs of exposed females was studied microscopically after different time intervals. Results Eggs laid, eggs hatched, pupae formed and adults emerged per female exposed in both before blood meal and after blood meal groups declined significantly from lowest to highest concentration of PPF (F ≥ 5.2; p < 0.02). Adult emergence inhibition in females exposed to PPF before and after blood meal groups ranged from 58.8% [OR = 0.18 (95% CI = 0.09–0.36)] to 79.2% [OR = 0.04 (95% CI = 0.02–0.10)] and 64.4% [OR = 0.12 (95% CI = 0.05–0.28)] to 77.1% [OR = 0.05 (95% CI = 0.02–0.14)] respectively in different concentrations. The probit model used suggested that FI50 (50% fertility inhibition) and EI50 (50% emergence inhibition) were 0.002% (p = 0.82) and 0.0001% (p = 0.99) for females exposed before blood meal, while 0.01% (p = 0.63) and, Author summary Development of resistance against insecticides has challenged mosquito control programmes globally and prompted the research of alternative options that can complement insecticides. An insect growth regulator, pyriproxyfen (PPF) usage against mosquitoes can effectively reduce the vector population. PPF mainly inhibits the metamorphosis of mosquito larvae into pupae and prevent the adult emergence, therefore it is generally applied in mosquito breeding habitats. PPF has been shown to exhibit delayed residual effect that may impair the reproductive capacity by affecting the survival, fecundity and fertility of adult mosquito exposed through tarsal contact. Presently, the effectiveness of different concentrations of PPF intended to be delivered through contact have been evaluated against dengue vector Ae. aegypti. Results suggested that very low PPF concentration treated surfaces drastically reduce the fecundity, fertility and adult emergence in mosquitoes. Study suggests that control interventions based on PPF-treated surfaces could provide an additional route to target mosquito vector control by overall population density reduction.

Microbial fuel cells (MFCs) are devices that exploit microorganisms as biocatalysts to recover energy from organic matter in the form of electricity. One of the goals of MFC research is to develop the technology for cost-effective wastewater treatment. However, before practical MFC applications are implemented it is important to gain fundamental knowledge about long-term system performance, reproducibility, and the formation and maintenance of functionally-stable microbial communities. Here we report findings from a MFC operated for over 300 days using only primary clarifier effluent collected from a municipal wastewater treatment plant as the microbial resource and substrate. The system was operated in a repeat-batch mode, where the reactor solution was replaced once every two weeks with new primary effluent that consisted of different microbial and chemical compositions with every batch exchange. The turbidity of the primary clarifier effluent solution notably decreased, and 97% of biological oxygen demand (BOD) was removed after an 8-13 day residence time for each batch cycle. On average, the limiting current density was 1000 mA/m(2), the maximum power density was 13 mW/m(2), and coulombic efficiency was 25%. Interestingly, the electrochemical performance and BOD removal rates were very reproducible throughout MFC operation regardless of the sample variability associated with each wastewater exchange. While MFC performance was very reproducible, the phylogenetic analyses of anode-associated electricity-generating biofilms showed that the microbial populations temporally fluctuated and maintained a high biodiversity throughout the year-long experiment. These results suggest that MFC communities are both self-selecting and self-optimizing, thereby able to develop and maintain functional stability regardless of fluctuations in carbon source(s) and regular introduction of microbial competitors. These results contribute significantly toward the practical application of MFC systems for long-term wastewater treatment as well as demonstrating MFC technology as a useful device to enrich for functionally stable microbial populations.

ALTHOUGH scattered observations on the life span of many vertebrates and invertebrates are legion, the accurately Collected mortality. data necessary for the construction of a life table are, apart from mnan, few indeed. For the insect group, life tables in complete or abridged form have been published for representatives of four orders: the Orthoptera (Blatta orientalis), the Lepidoptera (Telea polyphtemis and Acrobasis caryae), the Diptera (Drosophtila melanogaster and various of its mutants), and the Coleoptera (Tribolit am1 coonfusumt). Reference to the first three orders will be found in the papers of Pearl and AMiner (1935 and 1936); to the last order in Pearl, Park alcd Mliner (1941). The present paper reports a life table for another, and hitherto little studied, flour beetle, Tribolimi qnadens. The details of life table construction, the significance of the life table for many pleases of population biology and a review of the literature dealing with mortality in infra-human populations are not considered pertinent for this short paper. If interested, the reader can find further information in Bodeniheinier (1938), Dublin. and Lotka (1936) and Pearl (1940). The flour beetles (Tribooliulml cojifusutm and Triboliamn;^ castaneum) are proving to be appropriate organisms for experimental populations studies (see Ford, 1937, and Park, 1941). It is hoped that, as more backg-round data 1 I wish to express my sincere thanks to Dr. Alfred J; Lotka, of the Metropolitail Life Insurance Compally, whose advice has been inv-aluable. I am also greatly iiidebted to Mr. Albert W. Buzicky, of The University of Miimesota, for furnishilgg me with a culture of Triboltm macdens as well as for a ilnunber of suggestions. This investigation has beeni aided by a grailt from the Dr. Wallace C. adll Clara A. Abbott Meioriml Funid of the University of Chicago.

Many journals now require authors to submit both code and data along with a publication. Several studies have shown that the proportion of these papers for which the shared code and data can be said to replicate the analysis is low, even with aid from the original authors. We plan a similar study of the ecology and wildlife conservation literature, specifically focusing on papers that estimate species distribution or abundance via hierarchical modeling.

The scope of this paper can be clarified by means of a well-known phenomenon that is usually called 'industrial melanism': the fact that the melanic form of the peppered moth became dominant in industrial areas in England in the second half of the nineteenth century. Such changes in relative phenotype frequencies are important explananda for population biologists. Apart from trying to explain such changes over time, population biologists also often try to explain differences between populations, e.g. why yellow shell colour is dominant in certain colonies of land snails and almost absent in other colonies. The causal explanations that are given to address such explananda are the objects of analysis in this paper. Our primary aim is to explicate their structure: we want to capture the typical ingredients of causal explanations in population biology, and their organisation. Based on this explication, we discuss how natural selection fits into recent mechanical philosophy of science, and engage in the debate on the nature of evolutionary theory.

The Sustainable Development Goals include a target on eliminating child marriage, a human rights abuse. Yet, the indicator used in the SDG framework is a summary statistic and does not provide a full picture of the incidence of marriage at different ages. This paper aims to address this limitation by providing an alternative method of measuring child marriage. The paper reviews recent data on nuptiality and captures evidence of changes in the proportion married and in the age at marriage, in 98 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using data collected from nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, survival analysis is applied to estimate (a) age-specific marriage hazard rates among girls before age 18; and (b) the number of girls that were married before age 18 in 2020. Results show that the vast majority of girls remain unmarried until age 10. Child marriage rates increase gradually until age 14 and accelerate significantly thereafter at ages 15–17. By accounting for both single-year-age-specific child marriage hazard rates and the age structure of the population with a survival analysis approach, lower estimates in countries with a rapid decrease in child marriage and higher estimates in countries with constant or slightly rising child marriage rates relative to the direct approach are obtained.

This Special Issue provides an overview of the current status of plant conservation biology in Spain and other regions around the World. Papers represent selected outstanding presentations made during the 9th Congress of the Spanish Society of Plant Conservation Biology, which took place in Granada (Spain) on July 9-12, 2019. These papers cover different topics, all illustrating present trends in plant conservation biology. They highlight the important contribution of different approaches to plant conservation in the area. This special issue is dedicated to the memory of the Spanish botanist José Antonio Fernández Prieto (1950-2019).

The mechanisms underlying the emergence of seizures are one of the most important unresolved issues in epilepsy research. In this paper, we study how perturbations, exogenous or endogenous, may promote or delay seizure emergence. To this aim, due to the increasingly adopted view of epileptic dynamics in terms of slow-fast systems, we perform a theoretical analysis of the phase response of a generic relaxation oscillator. As relaxation oscillators are effectively bistable systems at the fast time scale, it is intuitive that perturbations of the non-seizing state with a suitable direction and amplitude may cause an immediate transition to seizure. By contrast, and perhaps less intuitively, smaller amplitude perturbations have been found to delay the spontaneous seizure initiation. By studying the isochrons of relaxation oscillators, we show that this is a generic phenomenon, with the size of such delay depending on the slow flow component. Therefore, depending on perturbation amplitudes, frequency and timing, a train of perturbations causes an occurrence increase, decrease or complete suppression of seizures. This dependence lends itself to analysis and mechanistic understanding through methods outlined in this paper. We illustrate this methodology by computing the isochrons, phase response curves and the response to perturbations in several epileptic models possessing different slow vector fields. While our theoretical results are applicable to any planar relaxation oscillator, in the motivating context of epilepsy they elucidate mechanisms of triggering and abating seizures, thus suggesting stimulation strategies with effects ranging from mere delaying to full suppression of seizures., Author summary Despite its simplicity, the modelling of epileptic dynamics as a slow-fast transition between low and high activity states mediated by some slow feedback variable is a relatively novel albeit fruitful approach. This study is the first, to our knowledge, characterizing the response of such slow-fast models of epileptic brain to perturbations by computing its isochrons. Besides its numerical computation, we theoretically determine which factors shape the geometry of isochrons for planar slow-fast oscillators. As a consequence, we introduce a theoretical approach providing a clear understanding of the response of perturbations of slow-fast oscillators. Within the epilepsy context, this elucidates the origin of the contradictory role of interictal epileptiform discharges in the transition to seizure, manifested by both pro-convulsive and anti-convulsive effect depending on the amplitude, frequency and timing. More generally, this paper provides theoretical framework highlighting the role of the slow flow component on the response to perturbations in relaxation oscillators, pointing to the general phenomena in such slow-fast oscillators ubiquitous in biological systems.

Significance The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide public health emergency caused by the β-coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. A very large and continuously increasing number of high-quality whole-genome sequences are available. We have investigated whether these sequences show effects of epistatic contributions to fitness. In a population evolving under a high rate of recombination, such effects of natural selection can be detected by direct coupling analysis, a global model learning technique. The paper opens up the prospect to leverage very large collections of genome sequences to find combinatorial weaknesses of highly recombinant pathogens., Genome-wide epistasis analysis is a powerful tool to infer gene interactions, which can guide drug and vaccine development and lead to deeper understanding of microbial pathogenesis. We have considered all complete severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes deposited in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) repository until four different cutoff dates, and used direct coupling analysis together with an assumption of quasi-linkage equilibrium to infer epistatic contributions to fitness from polymorphic loci. We find eight interactions, of which three are between pairs where one locus lies in gene ORF3a, both loci holding nonsynonymous mutations. We also find interactions between two loci in gene nsp13, both holding nonsynonymous mutations, and four interactions involving one locus holding a synonymous mutation. Altogether, we infer interactions between loci in viral genes ORF3a and nsp2, nsp12, and nsp6, between ORF8 and nsp4, and between loci in genes nsp2, nsp13, and nsp14. The paper opens the prospect to use prominent epistatically linked pairs as a starting point to search for combinatorial weaknesses of recombinant viral pathogens.

Locusts are short horned grasshoppers that exhibit two behaviour types depending on their local population density. These are: solitarious, where they will actively avoid other locusts, and gregarious where they will seek them out. It is in this gregarious state that locusts can form massive and destructive flying swarms or plagues. However, these swarms are usually preceded by the aggregation of juvenile wingless locust nymphs. In this paper we attempt to understand how the distribution of food resources affect the group formation process. We do this by introducing a multi-population partial differential equation model that includes non-local locust interactions, local locust and food interactions, and gregarisation. Our results suggest that, food acts to increase the maximum density of locust groups, lowers the percentage of the population that needs to be gregarious for group formation, and decreases both the required density of locusts and time for group formation around an optimal food width. Finally, by looking at foraging efficiency within the numerical experiments we find that there exists a foraging advantage to being gregarious., Author summary Locusts are short horned grass hoppers that live in two diametrically opposed behavioural states. In the first, solitarious, they will actively avoid other locusts, whereas the second, gregarious, they will actively seek them out. It is in this gregarious state that locusts form the recognisable and destructive flying adult swarms. However, prior to swarm formation juvenile flightless locusts will form marching hopper bands and make their way from food source to food source. Predicting where these hopper bands might form is key to controlling locust outbreaks. Research has shown that changes in food distributions can affect the transition from solitarious to gregarious. In this paper we construct a mathematical model of locust-locust and locust-food interactions to investigate how food distributions affect the aggregation of juvenile locusts, termed groups, an important precursor to hopper bands. Our findings suggest that there is an optimal food distribution for group formation and that being gregarious increases a locusts ability to forage when food becomes more patchy.

This paper examines the impact of widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) on urban structure worldwide. Has it offset agglomeration benefits and led to more dispersed spatial structures, or has it strengthened urban externalities and thus resulted in more concentrated spatial structures? Theoretical and empirical studies on this question have produced contradictory findings. The present study recognizes that assumptions made earlier about the evolution of technological capabilities do not necessarily hold today. As cutting-edge digital technologies have matured considerably, a fresh look at this question is called for. The paper addresses this issue by means of several data sets using instrumental variable methods. One is the UN data on Urban Settlements with more than 300, 000 inhabitants. Estimation methods with these data show that increased adoption of ICT has resulted in national urban systems that are less uniform in terms of city sizes and are characterized by higher population concentrations in larger cities, when concentration is proxied the Pareto (Zipf) coefficient for national city size distributions. Two, is disaggregated data for the urban systems of the US, defined as Micropolitan and Metropolitan Areas, and for the UK, defined as Built-up Areas in England and Wales, respectively. These data allow for the impacts to be studied for cities smaller than those included in the cross-country data. Increased internet usage improved a city’s ranking in the US urban system. Similarly, increased download speed improves a built-up area’s ranking in England and Wales.

Drawing on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from satellite raster data and matching with the county-level socio-economic data from 2008 to 2015 in China, this paper investigates the impacts of the establishment of National Key Ecological Functional Zones (NKEFZ) on environmental quality by employing the difference-in-differences method, which was stablished in June 2011. The results indicate that the establishment of the NKEFZ significantly decreased the concentration values of PM2.5, a drop of about 20% during the study period, after the paper controls for other factors affecting air quality. The robustness tests using the maximum and medium concentration values of PM2.5 show similar results. Through further analysis, the paper finds that the establishment of NKEFZ can improve the ecological utilization efficiency of land.

HIV can evolve remarkably quickly in response to antiretroviral therapies and the immune system. This evolution stymies treatment effectiveness and prevents the development of an HIV vaccine. Consequently, there has been a great interest in using population genetics to disentangle the forces that govern the HIV adaptive landscape (selection, drift, mutation, and recombination). Traditional population genetics approaches look at the current state of genetic variation and infer the processes that can generate it. However, because HIV evolves rapidly, we can also sample populations repeatedly over time and watch evolution in action. In this paper, we demonstrate how time series data can bound evolutionary parameters in a way that complements and informs traditional population genetic approaches. Specifically, we focus on our recent paper (Feder et al., 2016, eLife), in which we show that, as improved HIV drugs have led to fewer patients failing therapy due to resistance evolution, less genetic diversity has been maintained following the fixation of drug resistance mutations. Because soft sweeps of multiple drug resistance mutations spreading simultaneously have been previously documented in response to the less effective HIV therapies used early in the epidemic, we interpret the maintenance of post-sweep diversity in response to poor therapies as further evidence of soft sweeps and therefore a high population mutation rate (θ) in these intra-patient HIV populations. Because improved drugs resulted in rarer resistance evolution accompanied by lower post-sweep diversity, we suggest that both observations can be explained by decreased population mutation rates and a resultant transition to hard selective sweeps. A recent paper (Harris et al., 2018, PLOS Genetics) proposed an alternative interpretation: Diversity maintenance following drug resistance evolution in response to poor therapies may have been driven by recombination during slow, hard selective sweeps of single mutations. Then, if better drugs have led to faster hard selective sweeps of resistance, recombination will have less time to rescue diversity during the sweep, recapitulating the decrease in post-sweep diversity as drugs have improved. In this paper, we use time series data to show that drug resistance evolution during ineffective treatment is very fast, providing new evidence that soft sweeps drove early HIV treatment failure.