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We registered 1336 incident-validated fractures in a prospective cohort of 3560 postmenopausal (60-85 years) Belgian women (mean follow-up of 9.1 years). The increase of fracture incidence with age varied widely depending on the fracture site and was significantly steeper for central than for peripheral fractures (e.g., not significant for the ankle).The epidemiology of fracture sites other than MOFs has been less studied. We examined the incidence of fractures according to their sites in a prospective cohort of postmenopausal Belgian women.Three thousand five hundred sixty postmenopausal women, aged 60-85 years old, were recruited from 2007 to 2013 and surveyed yearly (FRISBEE). The number of validated incident fractures was recorded and analyzed in relation to age and the fracture site.One thousand three hundred thirty-six fractures were recorded after a mean follow-up of 9.1 years. Seven hundred fifty-six fractures (57%) were MOFs and 580 (43%) non-MOFs, while 813 (61%) were central and 523 (39%) peripheral. The increase of fracture incidence with age differed between fracture sites and was steeper for central than for peripheral fractures. The ratio of MOFs to non-MOFs increased significantly with age, from 1.10 (95% CI: 0.83-1.45) for the 60-69 to 1.69 [1.42-2.01] for the 80-89-year subgroup (P = 0.017). This was also true for central versus peripheral fracture. We differentiated three groups of fracture incidence evolution with age: fractures with a mean increase/decade (compared to the 60-69 age group) of less than 1.5, 1.5-2.0, and 2.0-3.0. The lowest increase was seen for most peripheral fractures, whereas the greatest increase included hip, scapula, pelvis, ribs, and spine fractures.The increase of fracture incidence with age varied widely depending on the fracture site, and the ratio of MOFs to non-MOFs rose significantly with age. Some peripheral fractures, such as the ankle, did not increase significantly with age, suggesting that bone fragility does not play a major role in their occurrence.

Context Individualized fracture risk may help to select patients requiring a pharmacological treatment for osteoporosis. FRAX and the Garvan fracture risk calculators are the most used tools, although their external validation has shown significant differences in their risk prediction ability. Objective and Methods Using data from the Fracture Risk Brussels Epidemiological Enquiry study, a cohort of 3560 postmenopausal women aged 60 to 85 years, we aimed to construct original 5-year fracture risk prediction models using validated clinical risk factors (CRFs). Three models of competing risk analysis were developed to predict major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs), all fractures, and central fractures (femoral neck, shoulder, clinical spine, pelvis, ribs, scapula, clavicle, sternum). Results Age, a history of fracture, and hip or spine BMD were predictors common to the 3 models. Excessive alcohol intake and the presence of comorbidities were specific additional CRFs for MOFs, a history of fall for all fractures, and rheumatoid arthritis for central fractures. Our models predicted the fracture probability at 5 years with an acceptable accuracy (Brier scores ≤ 0.1) and had a good discrimination power (area under the receiver operating curve of 0.73 for MOFs and 0.72 for central fractures) when internally validated by bootstrap. Three simple nomograms, integrating significant CRFs and the mortality risk, were constructed for different fracture sites. In conclusion, we derived 3 models predicting fractures with an acceptable accuracy, particularly for MOFs and central fractures. The models are based on a limited number of CRFs, and we constructed nomograms for use in clinical practice.