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This paper examines the relationship between financial instability and monetary policy within the Swedish economy. Based on a standard VAR model of monetary policy extended to include measures of financial instability and credit expansions, we examine the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability. We find that both higher interest rates, higher prices and lending expansions contribute to financial instability. As the effects from price shocks are strong and persistent compared to other shocks, our conclusion is that we cannot reject that price stability and financial stability are mutually consistent goals for monetary policy.

We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing models where the real exchange rate is non-stationary. We also find that the existence of different regimes, as in the Markov switching model, is consistent with the common finding of unit roots in the real exchange rate.

We develop an alternative test of the `German view' - that a reduction in government consumption may lead to an immediate private consumption boom - derived from an open-economy permanent income model. In our empirical study we find, in accordance with the `German view', that an anticipated permanent reduction of government consumption is associated with a strong short-run (and permanent) increase in private consumption. However, the Danish experience following the fiscal contraction in 1982 suggest that this was not a dominant factor behind the private consumption boom. Our evidence shows instead that other factors increasing permanent income, including a substantial terms-of-trade improvement, were much more important.

This paper examines the characteristics of business cycles within and across thirteen countries for more than a century of observations adopting a monetary regime perspective. We search for empirical regularities of business cycle fluctuations during three monetary regimes; the classical gold standard, the interwar period and the post-World War II period. Our empirical results, based on bandpass filtered data, suggest that business cycle fluctuations have remained surprisingly stable across monetary regimes and across countries. In particular, the procyclical pattern for consumption, investment, exports and imports is stable across regimes and countries. We find a rise in the frequency of significant cyclical comovements across countries, possibly reflecting a recent rise in economic integration. Our evidence suggests that both the amplitude and the symmetry of business cycles have changed over time. The post-World War II period is marginally less volatile than the gold standard period while the interwar period is more volatile.

The British Committee on Safety of Medicines issued an advisory in October 1995 based on not-yet-published studies which indicated that third-generation oral contraceptives (OCs) containing the progestagens desogestrel and gestodene were associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in users. An expert group met in January 1996 to provide a balanced perspective on the evidence presented in the studies. Methodological concerns with the studies include a possible exaggeration of the risks because VTE is more likely to be preferentially diagnosed in all users of combined OCs as a result of publication of epidemiological studies in the 1960s and 1970s which indicated that OC users had an increased risk of VTE myocardial infarction and stroke. In addition a higher proportion of susceptible women may be among the users of third-generation formulations because of attrition of susceptible women from second-generation use. OCs protect against ovarian and endometrial neoplasms and menstrual problems. The third-generation OCs were developed to reduce androgenic effects such as unfavorable effects on serum lipids and they may be associated with a reduction in myocardial infarction. Even modest bias could account for the small differences found between VTE risk in second- and third-generation OCs. At the present time the combined OCs currently available including the third-generation formulations are among the safest and most effective methods of fertility control.

Postoperative septic complications and micro-organisms found in primary infections were studied in 750 gastric operations performed between 1972 and 1986. The overall rate of primary infections was 23%. The infection rates were related to the diagnosis and to factors that could influence the colonization of the stomach. No significant differences in the rates of postoperative infections were found between patients who had received preoperative antibiotic prophylaxis and those who had not. In all groups of patients, aerobic and anaerobic gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria and yeasts were isolated in primary infections. Enterobacteriaceae, enterococci and Bacteroides fragiis were more frequent in patients with gastric bleeding or carcinoma.

We asked patients "At what times of the day do you usually take your medicine?" In contrast to compliance interviews dealing with missed doses, this question was previously shown to give valid information. Here we present results from 126 patients on theophyllines three times daily, the most common dosage schedule for these drugs in Sweden in 1978. Only 2% of the patients stated the ideal 8-h intervals between all doses, while 72% had confined all their doses within 12 h. The first and second intervals ranged from 0 to 11 h with a mean of 5.5 and 6.1 h respectively. The third interval varied from 7 to 18 h with a mean of 12.4 h. Patients might benefit more from their therapy by even-spacing of their intake of theophylline.