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Our understanding of the divers of the temporal dynamics of livestock mobility networks is currently limited, despite their significant implications for the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. We analyzed the effect of time-varying environmental and economic variables - biomass production, rainfall, livestock market prices and religious calendar - on long distance movements of cattle and small ruminant herds in Senegal in years 2014 and 2019. We used principal component analysis to explore the variation of the hypothesized explanatory variables in space and time and a generalized additive modelling approach to assess the effect of those variables on the likelihood of herd movement between pairs of administrative units. Contrary to environmental variables, the patterns of variation of market prices show significant differences across locations. The explanatory variables at origin had the highest contribution to the model deviance reduction. Biomass production and rainfall were found to affect the likelihood of herd movement for both species on at least one year. Market price at origin had a strong and consistent effect on the departure of small ruminant herds. Our study shows the potential benefits of a regular monitoring of market prices for future efforts at forecasting livestock movements and associated sanitary risks.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease mostly affecting wild and domestic ruminants. It is widespread in Africa, with spillovers in the Arab Peninsula and the southwestern Indian Ocean. Although RVF has been circulating in West Africa for more than 30 years, its epidemiology is still not clearly understood. In 2013, an RVF outbreak hit Senegal in new areas that weren’t ever affected before. To assess the extent of the spread of RVF virus, a national serological survey was implemented in young small ruminants (6–18 months old), between November 2014 and January 2015 (after the rainy season) in 139 villages. Additionally, the drivers of this spread were identified. For this purpose, we used a beta-binomial (BB) logistic regression model. An Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach was used to fit the spatial model. Lower cumulative rainfall, and higher accessibility were both associated with a higher RVFV seroprevalence. The spatial patterns of fitted RVFV seroprevalence pointed densely populated areas of western Senegal as being at higher risk of RVFV infection in small ruminants than rural or southeastern areas. Thus, because slaughtering infected animals and processing their fresh meat is an important RVFV transmission route for humans, more human populations might have been exposed to RVFV during the 2013–2014 outbreak than in previous outbreaks in Senegal.

This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak occurred in Madagascar from January to May 2008. The objectives of this study were (1) to assess the current and past circulation of RVF virus (RVFV) in livestock in Madagascar and (2) to evaluate the extent and magnitude of the 2008 RVF outbreak in livestock. The results of a country-wide serosurvey conducted in August 2008 on small and large ruminants are reported here. The study included 3437 cattle and 989 small ruminants (227 sheep and 762 goats) sampled in 30 of the 111 Malagasy districts, selected to be representative of the different ecozones and livestock density areas. Sera of animals were tested for the detection of immunoglobulins M (IgM) and G (IgG) against RVFV using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays kits. Recent infections (presence of IgM against RVFV) were detected in only 9 cattle (0.3% [0.1-0.4]) and 33 small ruminant (3.3% [2.2-4.5]) samples. Past infections (presence of IgG and absence of IgM against RVFV) were detected in 887 cattle (25.8% [24.3-27.3]) and 244 small ruminant (24.7% [22.0-27.4]) samples. Past infections were detected in all sampled sites. All ecozones were affected. In the southern and northwestern areas, the prevalence of cattle showing evidence of past infection with RVFV increased with the age of the animals. Our results suggest that there has been country-wide circulation of RVFV in 2008 in Madagascar, including in parts of the country where no clinical illness, either in animals or in humans, was reported. The data also suggest that the southern and northwestern areas may be endemic for RVFV, and that the virus may spread when ecological conditions are favorable for its amplification.