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Aims The benefits of nationwide screening and tailored health guidance on improving obesity and cardiovascular risk factors is uncertain. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of the national health screening and tailored health guidance with population health outcomes. Methods and results A fuzzy regression discontinuity design analysed data of men and women aged 40–74 years who participated in a nationwide health screening programme in Japan from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2019 and were recorded in the Japanese National Database. Exposure was assignment to the national health guidance of counselling on healthy lifestyle and clinical follow-up for individuals found to have waist circumference ≥85 cm for men ≥90 cm for women with one or more cardiovascular risk factors during annual national health screening. The primary outcomes were changes in obesity status and cardiovascular risk factors 1 year after screening. Of 3 490 112 men and 2 328 929 women, the assignment to the health guidance resulted in small reductions in obesity parameters: waist circumference; men, −0.27 cm [95% confidence interval (CI) −0.29 to −0.26]; women −0.34 (−0.41 to −0.27); body mass index, −0.07 kg/m2 (−0.075 to −0.066); −0.11 kg/m2 (−0.13 to −0.10); weight, −0.21 kg (−0.22 to −0.19); −0.28 kg (−0.32 to −0.24) that attenuated over time. Short-term improvements were also observed in blood pressure, haemoglobin A1c, fasting glucose and triglycerides across both sexes. Conclusion A nationwide health screening programme was associated with only small, and transient improvements in obesity and cardiovascular risk factors.

The novel SARS-CoV-2 has directly and indirectly impacted patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic correlated with an abrupt decline in hospitalizations with ACS and increased out-of-hospital deaths. Worse outcomes in ACS patients with concomitant COVID-19 have been reported, and acute myocardial injury secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection is recognized. A rapid adaptation of existing ACS pathways has been required such that overburdened health care systems may manage both a novel contagion and existing illness. As SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic, future research is required to better define the complex interplay of COVID-19 infection and cardiovascular disease.

Background National clinical audit programmes aim to improve patient care by reviewing performance against explicit standards and directing action towards areas not meeting those standards. Their impact can be improved by (1) optimising feedback content and format, (2) strengthening audit cycles and (3) embedding randomised trials evaluating different ways of delivering feedback. Objectives The objectives were to (1) develop and evaluate the effects of modifications to feedback on recipient responses, (2) identify ways of strengthening feedback cycles for two national audits and (3) explore opportunities, costs and benefits of national audit participation in a programme of trials. Design An online fractional factorial screening experiment (objective 1) and qualitative interviews (objectives 2 and 3). Setting and participants Participants were clinicians and managers involved in five national clinical audits – the National Comparative Audit of Blood Transfusions, the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network, the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project, the Trauma Audit & Research Network and the National Diabetes Audit – (objective 1); and clinicians, members of the public and researchers (objectives 2 and 3). Interventions We selected and developed six online feedback modifications through three rounds of user testing. We randomised participants to one of 32 combinations of the following recommended specific actions: comparators reinforcing desired behaviour change; multimodal feedback; minimised extraneous cognitive load for feedback recipients; short, actionable messages followed by optional detail; and incorporating ‘the patient voice’ (objective 1). Main outcome measures The outcomes were intended actions, including enactment of audit standards (primary outcome), comprehension, user experience and engagement (objective 1). Results For objective 1, the primary analysis included 638 randomised participants, of whom 566 completed the outcome questionnaire. No modification independently increased intended enactment of audit standards. Minimised cognitive load improved comprehension (+0.1; p = 0.014) and plans to bring audit findings to colleagues’ attention (+0.13, on a –3 to +3 scale; p = 0.016). We observed important cumulative synergistic and antagonistic interactions between modifications, participant role and national audit. The analysis in objective 2 included 19 interviews assessing the Trauma Audit Research Network and the National Diabetes Audit. The identified ways of strengthening audit cycles included making performance data easier to understand and guiding action planning. The analysis in objective 3 identified four conditions for effective collaboration from 31 interviews: compromise – recognising capacity and constraints; logistics – enabling data sharing, audit quality and funding; leadership – engaging local stakeholders; and relationships – agreeing shared priorities and needs. The perceived benefits of collaboration outweighed the risks. Limitations The online experiment assessed intended enactment as a predictor of actual clinical behaviour. Interviews and surveys were subject to social desirability bias. Conclusions National audit impacts may be enhanced by strengthening all aspects of feedback cycles, particularly effective feedback, and considering how different ways of reinforcing feedback act together. Future work Embedded randomised trials evaluating different ways of delivering feedback within national clinical audits are acceptable and may offer efficient, evidence-based and cumulative improvements in outcomes. Trial registration This trial is registered as ISRCTN41584028. Funding details This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 10, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Aims The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on care and outcomes across non-COVID-19 cardiovascular (CV) diseases is unknown. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to quantify the effect and investigate for variation by CV disease, geographic region, country income classification and the time course of the pandemic. Methods and results From January 2019 to December 2021, Medline and Embase databases were searched for observational studies comparing a pandemic and pre-pandemic period with relation to CV disease hospitalisations, diagnostic and interventional procedures, outpatient consultations, and mortality. Observational data were synthesised by incidence rate ratios (IRR) and risk ratios (RR) for binary outcomes and weighted mean differences for continuous outcomes with 95% confidence intervals. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021265930). A total of 158 studies, covering 49 countries and 6 continents, were used for quantitative synthesis. Most studies (80%) reported information for high-income countries (HICs). Across all CV disease and geographies there were fewer hospitalisations, diagnostic and interventional procedures, and outpatient consultations during the pandemic. By meta-regression, in low-middle income countries (LMICs) compared to HICs the decline in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) hospitalisations (RR 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66–0.94) and revascularisation (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62–0.87) was more severe. In LMICs, but not HICs, in-hospital mortality increased for STEMI (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10–1.37) and heart failure (RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04–1.12). The magnitude of decline in hospitalisations for CV diseases did not differ between the first and second wave. Conclusions There was substantial global collateral CV damage during the COVID-19 pandemic with disparity in severity by country income classification.

Aims The optimal timing of an invasive strategy (IS) in non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is controversial. Recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and long-term follow-up data have yet to be included in a contemporary meta-analysis. Methods and results A systematic review of RCTs that compared an early IS vs. delayed IS for NSTE-ACS was conducted by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. A meta-analysis was performed by pooling relative risks (RRs) using a random-effects model. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI), recurrent ischaemia, admission for heart failure (HF), repeat re-vascularization, major bleeding, stroke, and length of hospital stay. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021246131). Seventeen RCTs with outcome data from 10 209 patients were included. No significant differences in risk for all-cause mortality [RR: 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78–1.04], MI (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.63–1.16), admission for HF (RR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.43–1.03), repeat re-vascularization (RR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.88–1.23), major bleeding (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.68–1.09), or stroke (RR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.59–1.54) were observed. Recurrent ischaemia (RR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.40–0.81) and length of stay (median difference: −22 h, 95% CI: −36.7 to −7.5 h) were reduced with an early IS. Conclusion In all-comers with NSTE-ACS, an early IS does not reduce all-cause mortality, MI, admission for HF, repeat re-vascularization, or increase major bleeding or stroke when compared with a delayed IS. Risk of recurrent ischaemia and length of stay are significantly reduced with an early IS.

Background National audits aim to reduce variations in quality by stimulating quality improvement. However, varying provider engagement with audit data means that this is not being realised. Aim The aim of the study was to develop and evaluate a quality dashboard (i.e. QualDash) to support clinical teams’ and managers’ use of national audit data. Design The study was a realist evaluation and biography of artefacts study. Setting The study involved five NHS acute trusts. Methods and results In phase 1, we developed a theory of national audits through interviews. Data use was supported by data access, audit staff skilled to produce data visualisations, data timeliness and quality, and the importance of perceived metrics. Data were mainly used by clinical teams. Organisational-level staff questioned the legitimacy of national audits. In phase 2, QualDash was co-designed and the QualDash theory was developed. QualDash provides interactive customisable visualisations to enable the exploration of relationships between variables. Locating QualDash on site servers gave users control of data upload frequency. In phase 3, we developed an adoption strategy through focus groups. ‘Champions’, awareness-raising through e-bulletins and demonstrations, and quick reference tools were agreed. In phase 4, we tested the QualDash theory using a mixed-methods evaluation. Constraints on use were metric configurations that did not match users’ expectations, affecting champions’ willingness to promote QualDash, and limited computing resources. Easy customisability supported use. The greatest use was where data use was previously constrained. In these contexts, report preparation time was reduced and efforts to improve data quality were supported, although the interrupted time series analysis did not show improved data quality. Twenty-three questionnaires were returned, revealing positive perceptions of ease of use and usefulness. In phase 5, the feasibility of conducting a cluster randomised controlled trial of QualDash was assessed. Interviews were undertaken to understand how QualDash could be revised to support a region-wide Gold Command. Requirements included multiple real-time data sources and functionality to help to identify priorities. Conclusions Audits seeking to widen engagement may find the following strategies beneficial: involving a range of professional groups in choosing metrics; real-time reporting; presenting ‘headline’ metrics important to organisational-level staff; using routinely collected clinical data to populate data fields; and dashboards that help staff to explore and report audit data. Those designing dashboards may find it beneficial to include the following: ‘at a glance’ visualisation of key metrics; visualisations configured in line with existing visualisations that teams use, with clear labelling; functionality that supports the creation of reports and presentations; the ability to explore relationships between variables and drill down to look at subgroups; and low requirements for computing resources. Organisations introducing a dashboard may find the following strategies beneficial: clinical champion to promote use; testing with real data by audit staff; establishing routines for integrating use into work practices; involving audit staff in adoption activities; and allowing customisation. Limitations The COVID-19 pandemic stopped phase 4 data collection, limiting our ability to further test and refine the QualDash theory. Questionnaire results should be treated with caution because of the small, possibly biased, sample. Control sites for the interrupted time series analysis were not possible because of research and development delays. One intervention site did not submit data. Limited uptake meant that assessing the impact on more measures was not appropriate. Future work The extent to which national audit dashboards are used and the strategies national audits use to encourage uptake, a realist review of the impact of dashboards, and rigorous evaluations of the impact of dashboards and the effectiveness of adoption strategies should be explored. Study registration This study is registered as ISRCTN18289782. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 10, No. 12. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

There is uncertainty regarding the impact of statins on the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and its major complication, acute heart failure (AHF).The aim of this study was to investigate whether previous statin therapy translates into lower AHF events and improved survival from AHF among patients presenting with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) as a first manifestation of ASCVD.Data were drawn from the International Survey of Acute Coronary Syndromes Archives. The study participants consisted of 14,542 Caucasian patients presenting with ACS without previous ASCVD events. Statin users before the index event were compared with nonusers by using inverse probability weighting models. Estimates were compared by test of interaction on the log scale. Main outcome measures were the incidence of AHF according to Killip class and the rate of 30-day all-cause mortality in patients presenting with AHF.Previous statin therapy was associated with a significantly decreased rate of AHF on admission (4.3% absolute risk reduction; risk ratio [RR]: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.62-0.83) regardless of younger (40-75 years) or older age (interaction P = 0.27) and sex (interaction P = 0.22). Moreover, previous statin therapy predicted a lower risk of 30-day mortality in the subset of patients presenting with AHF on admission (5.2 % absolute risk reduction; RR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.50-0.99).Among adults presenting with ACS as a first manifestation of ASCVD, previous statin therapy is associated with a reduced risk of AHF and improved survival from AHF. (International Survey of Acute Coronary Syndromes [ISACS] Archives; NCT04008173).

Standardized data definitions are essential for monitoring and benchmarking the quality of care and patient outcomes in observational studies and randomized controlled trials. There are no contemporary pan-European data standards for the acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The European Unified Registries for Heart Care Evaluation and Randomised Trials (EuroHeart) project of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) aimed to develop such data standards for ACS and PCI. Following a systematic review of the literature on ACS and PCI data standards and evaluation of contemporary ACS and PCI registries, we undertook a modified Delphi process involving clinical and registry experts from 11 European countries, as well as representatives from relevant ESC Associations, including the European Association of Percutaneous Cardiovascular Interventions (EAPCI) and Acute CardioVascular Care (ACVC). This resulted in final sets of 68 and 84 ‘mandatory’ variables and several catalogues of optional variables for ACS and PCI, respectively. Data definitions were provided for these variables, which have been programmed as the basis for continuous registration of individual patient data in the online EuroHeart IT platform. By means of a structured process and the interaction with major stakeholders, internationally harmonized data standards for ACS and PCI have been developed. In the context of the EuroHeart project, this will facilitate country-level quality of care improvement, international observational research, registry-based randomized trials, and post-marketing surveillance of devices and pharmacotherapies.

AimsTo assess processes of care and clinical outcomes in cancer patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) according to cancer type.Methods and resultsThis is a national population-based study of patients admitted with STEMI in the UK between January 2005 and March 2019. Data were obtained from the National Heart Attack Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) registry and the Hospital Episode Statistics registry. We identified 353 448 STEMI-indexed admissions between 2005 and 2019. Of those, 8581 (2.4%) had active cancer. Prostate cancer (29% of STEMI patients with cancer) was the most common cancer followed by haematologic malignancies (14%) and lung cancer (13%). Cancer patients were less likely to receive invasive coronary revascularization (60.0% vs. 71.6%, P ConclusionSTEMI patients with cancer have a higher risk of short- and long-term mortality, particularly lung cancer. Colon cancer is the main cancer associated with major bleeding. Cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death in the first month, whereas cancer was the main cause of death within 1 year.

BackgroundRight Ventricular Pacing (RVP) may have detrimental effects in ventricular function. Left Bundle Branch Area Pacing (LBBAP) is a new pacing strategy that appears to have better results. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to compare the safety and efficacy of LBBAP vs RVP in patients with bradyarrhythmia and conduction system disorders.MethodsMedline, Embase and Pubmed databases were searched for studies comparing LBBAP with RVP. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, atrial fibrillation (AF) occurrence, heart failure hospitalizations (HFH) and complications. QRS duration, mechanical synchrony and LVEF changes were also assessed. Pairwise meta-analysis was conducted using random and fixed effects models.ResultsTwenty-five trials with 4250 patients (2127 LBBAP) were included in the analysis. LBBAP was associated with lower risk for HFH (RR:0.33, CI 95%:0.21 to 0.50;pp=0.003), and AF occurrence (RR:0.43 CI 95%:0.27 to 0.68;pp=0.780). QRSd was shorter in the LBBAP group at follow-up (WMD: -32.20 msec, CI 95%: -40.70 to -23.71;ppp=0.860) and higher R wave amplitudes (p=0.009) than RVP.ConclusionsLBBAP has better clinical outcomes, preserves ventricular electrical and mechanical synchrony and has excellent pacing parameters, with no difference in complications compared to RVP.Clinical PerspectiveWhat is knownLeft bundle branch area pacing (LBBAP) is a method of conduction system pacing with higher procedural success rate and less limitations compared to His bundle pacing (HBP).Right ventricular pacing (RVP) causes electromechanical dyssynchrony, which may result in left ventricular systolic dysfunction in some patients.What the study addsWe examined in a systematic review and meta-analysis whether there was a difference in clinical outcomes, electromechanical synchronization, and safety between LBBAP and RVP in patients with bradyarrhythmia and conduction system disorders.

Aims This report from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas Project updates and expands upon the widely cited 2019 report in presenting cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics for the 57 ESC member countries. Methods and results Statistics pertaining to 2019, or the latest available year, are presented. Data sources include the World Health Organization, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the World Bank, and novel ESC sponsored data on human and capital infrastructure and cardiovascular healthcare delivery. New material in this report includes sociodemographic and environmental determinants of CVD, rheumatic heart disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, leftsided valvular heart disease, the advocacy potential of these CVD statistics, and progress towards World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 targets for non-communicable diseases. Salient observations in this report: (i) Females born in ESC member countries in 2018 are expected to live 80.8 years and males 74.8 years. Life expectancy is longer in high income (81.6 years) compared with middle-income (74.2 years) countries. (ii) In 2018, high-income countries spent, on average, four times more on healthcare than middle-income countries. (iii) The median PM2.5 concentrations in 2019 were over twice as high in middle-income ESC member countries compared with high-income countries and exceeded the EU air quality standard in 14 countries, all middle-income. (iv) In 2016, more than one in five adults across the ESC member countries were obese with similar prevalence in high and low-income countries. The prevalence of obesity has more than doubled over the past 35 years. (v) The burden of CVD falls hardest on middle-income ESC member countries where estimated incidence rates are ∼30% higher compared with high-income countries. This is reflected in disability-adjusted life years due to CVD which are nearly four times as high in middle-income compared with high-income countries. (vi) The incidence of calcific aortic valve disease has increased seven-fold during the last 30 years, with age-standardized rates four times as high in high-income compared with middle-income countries. (vii) Although the total number of CVD deaths across all countries far exceeds the number of cancer deaths for both sexes, there are 15 ESC member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in males and five-member countries in which cancer accounts for more deaths than CVD in females. (viii) The under-resourced status of middle-income countries is associated with a severe procedural deficit compared with high-income countries in terms of coronary intervention, ablation procedures, device implantation, and cardiac surgical procedures. Conclusion Risk factors and unhealthy behaviours are potentially reversible, and this provides a huge opportunity to address the health inequalities across ESC member countries that are highlighted in this report. It seems clear, however, that efforts to seize this opportunity are falling short and present evidence suggests that most of the WHO NCD targets for 2025 are unlikely to be met across ESC member countries.

Aims The importance of standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs) in preventing non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is established. However, NSTEMI may present in the absence of SMuRFs, and little is known about their outcomes. Methods and results We analysed 176 083 adult (≥18 years) hospitalizations with NSTEMI using data from the United Kingdom (UK) Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP). Clinical characteristics and all-cause in-hospital mortality were analysed according to SMuRF status, with 135 223 patients presenting with at least one of diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, or current smoking status and 40 860 patients without any SMuRFs. Those with a history of coronary artery disease were excluded. Patients without SMuRFs were more frequently older (median age 72 year vs. 71 years, P Conclusion More than one in five patients presenting with NSTEMI had no SMuRFs, who were less frequently received guideline-recommended management and had lower in-hospital (all-cause and cardiac) mortality and MACE than patients with SMuRFs.

ObjectivesTo investigate sex-based differences in baseline values and longitudinal trajectories of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a large cohort of myocardial infarction (MI) survivors after adjusting for other important factors.DesignLongitudinal cohort study.SettingPopulation-based longitudinal study the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events study linked with national cardiovascular registry. Data were collected from 77 hospitals in England between 1 November 2011 and 24 June 2015.Participants9551 patients with MI. Patients were eligible for the study if they were ≥18 years of age.Primary and secondary outcome measuresHRQoL was measured by EuroQol five-dimension, visual analogue scale (EQ-5D, EQ VAS) survey at baseline, 1, 6 and 12 months after discharge. Multi-level linear and logistic regression models coupled with inverse probability weighted propensity scoring were used to evaluate sex differences in HRQoL following MI.ResultsOf the 9551 patients with MI and complete data on sex, 25.1% (2,397) were women. At baseline, women reported lower HRQoL (EQ VAS (mean (SD) 59.8 (20.4) vs 64.5 (20.9)) (median (IQR) 60.00 (50.00–75.00) vs 70.00 (50.00–80.00))) (EQ-5D (mean (SD) 0.66 (0.31) vs 0.74 (0.28)) (median (IQR) 0.73 (0.52–0.85) vs 0.81 (0.62–1.00))) and were more likely to report problems in each HRQoL domain compared with men. In the covariate balanced and adjusted multi-level model sex differences in HRQoL persisted during follow-up, with lower EQ VAS and EQ-5D scores in women compared with men (adjusted EQ VAS model sex coefficient: −4.41, 95% CI −5.16 to −3.66 and adjusted EQ-5D model sex coefficient: −0.07, 95% CI −0.08 to −0.06).ConclusionsWomen have lower HRQoL compared with men at baseline and during 12 months follow-up after MI. Tailored interventions for women following an MI could improve their quality of life.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04598048,NCT01808027,NCT01819103

This Review presents data describing the health burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within and across the WHO European Region. CVD remains the most common cause of death in the region. Deaths from CVD in those aged 60 million potential years of life lost to CVD in Europe annually. Although more women than men die from CVD, age-standardized rates of both morbidity and death are higher in men, and these differences in rates are greatest in individuals aged

Aims Little is known about the association between the type of admission ward and quality of care and outcomes for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Methods and results We analysed data from 337 155 NSTEMI admissions between 2010 and 2017 in the UK Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database. The cohort was dichotomised according to receipt of care either on a medical (n = 142,876) or cardiac ward, inclusive of acute cardiac wards and cardiac care unit (n = 194,279) on admission to hospital. Patients admitted to a cardiac ward were younger (median age 70 y vs. 75 y, P Conclusion Patients with NSTEMI admitted to a cardiac ward on admission were more likely to receive guideline directed management and had better clinical outcomes.

Aims To establish a set of quality indicators (QIs) for the cardiovascular (CV) assessment and management of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery (NCS). Methods and results The Quality Indicator Committee of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and European Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care (ESAIC) in collaboration with Task Force members of the 2022 ESC Guidelines on CV assessment and management of patients undergoing NCS followed the ESC methodology for QI development. This included (1) identification, by constructing a conceptual framework of care, of domains of the CV assessment, and management of patients with risk factors or established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are considered for or undergoing NCS, (2) development of candidate QIs following a systematic literature review, (3) selection of the final set of QIs using a modified Delphi method, and (4) evaluation of the feasibility of the developed QIs. In total, eight main and nine secondary QIs were selected across six domains: (1) structural framework (written policy), (2) patient education and quality of life (CV risk discussion), (3) peri-operative risk assessment (indication for diagnostic tests), (4) peri-operative risk mitigation (use of hospital therapies), (5) follow-up (post-discharge assessment), and (6) outcomes (major CV events). Conclusion We present the 2022 ESC/ESAIC QIs for the CV assessment and management of patients with risk factors or established CVD who are considered for or are undergoing NCS y. These indicators are supported by evidence from the literature, underpinned by expert consensus, and align with the 2022 ESC Guidelines on CV assessment and management of patients undergoing NCS.

ObjectiveBeta-blockers (BB) are an established treatment following myocardial infarction (MI). However, there is uncertainty as to whether BB beyond the first year of MI have a role in patients without heart failure or left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD).MethodsA nationwide cohort study was conducted including 43 618 patients with MI between 2005 and 2016 in the Swedish register for coronary heart disease. Follow-up started 1 year after hospitalisation (index date). Patients with heart failure or LVSD up until the index date were excluded. Patients were allocated into two groups according to BB treatment. Primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, MI, unscheduled revascularisation and hospitalisation for heart failure. Outcomes were analysed using Cox and Fine–Grey regression models after inverse propensity score weighting.ResultsOverall, 34 253 (78.5%) patients received BB and 9365 (21.5%) did not at the index date 1 year following MI. The median age was 64 years and 25.5% were female. In the intention-to-treat analysis, the unadjusted rate of primary outcome was lower among patients who received versus not received BB (3.8 vs 4.9 events/100 person-years) (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.04). Following inverse propensity score weighting and multivariable adjustment, the risk of the primary outcome was not different according to BB treatment (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.04). Similar findings were observed when censoring for BB discontinuation or treatment switch during follow-up.ConclusionEvidence from this nationwide cohort study suggests that BB treatment beyond 1 year of MI for patients without heart failure or LVSD was not associated with improved cardiovascular outcomes.

Aims Little is known about ethnic disparities in care and clinical outcomes of patients admitted with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in national cohorts from universal healthcare systems derived from Europe. Methods and results We identified 280 588 admissions with NSTEMI in the UK Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP), 2010–2017, including White patients (n = 258 364) and Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME) patients (n = 22 194). BAME patients were younger (66 years vs. 73 years, P Conclusion BAME patients with NSTEMI had higher cardiometabolic risk profiles and were more likely to undergo invasive angiography and revascularization, with similar clinical outcomes as those of their White counterparts. Among the quality indicators assessed, there is no evidence of care disparities among BAME patients presenting with NSTEMI.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a high death toll. We aimed to describe the place and cause of death during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThis national death registry included all adult (aged ≥18 years) deaths in England and Wales between 1st January 2014 and 30th June 2020. Analyses were based upon ICD-10 codes corresponding to the underlying cause of death as stated on the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death. Daily deaths during COVID-19 pandemic were compared against the expected daily deaths estimated using Farrington surveillance algorithm for daily historical data between 2014 and 2020, by place and cause of death.FindingsBetween 2nd March and 30th June 2020, there was an excess mortality of 57,860 (a proportional increase of 35%) compared with the expected deaths, of which 50,603 (86.2%) were COVID-19 related. Almost half the excess deaths occurred in care homes (25,611 deaths) where deaths were 55% higher than expected. One fifth of the excess deaths occurred in hospital (15,938 deaths; a proportional increase of 21%) with the remainder occurring at home (16,190 deaths; a proportional increase of 39%). At home, only 14% of 16,190 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, with 5,963 deaths due to cancer and 2,485 deaths due to cardiac disease, very few of which involved COVID-19. In care homes or hospices, 61% of the 25,611 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, 5,539 of which were due to respiratory disease and most of these (4,315 deaths) involved COVID-19. In hospital, there were 16,174 fewer deaths than expected which did not involve COVID-19, and there were 4,088 fewer deaths due to cancer and 1,398 fewer deaths due to cardiac disease than expected.InterpretationThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a substantial increase in the absolute numbers of deaths occurring at home and care homes. There was a huge burden of excess deaths occurring in care homes, which were poorly characterised, and were likely to be, at least in part, the result of undiagnosed COVID-19. There was a smaller but important and ongoing excess in deaths at home, particularly from cancer and cardiac disease, which suggests avoidance of hospital care for non-COVID-19 conditions.FundingThe study is unfunded.

Patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), particularly non-ST-segment elevation ACS, represent a spectrum of patients at variable risk of short- and long-term adverse clinical outcomes. Accurate prognostic assessment in this population requires the simultaneous consideration of multiple clinical and laboratory variables which may be under-recognized by the treating physicians, leading to an observed risk-treatment paradox in the use of invasive and pharmacological therapies. The routine application of established clinical risk scores, such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, is recommended by major international clinical practice guidelines for structured risk stratification at the time of presentation, but uptake remains inconsistent. This article discusses the methodology of designing, deriving, and validating clinical risk scores, reviews the major validated risk scores for assessing prognosis in ACS, and examines their role in guiding clinical decision-making in ACS management, especially the timing of invasive coronary angiography. We also discuss emerging data on the impact of the routine use of such risk scores on patient management and clinical outcomes, as well as future directions for investigation in this field.

Aims We estimated the 2020 European Society of Cardiology-Acute Cardio Vascular Care (ESC-ACVC) quality indicators (QI) for the management of acute myocardial infarction, from three existing registries to determine the feasibility of assessment, room for improvement, association with outcomes, and suitability for centre benchmarking. Methods and results Data were extracted from three French nationwide registries, namely FAST-MI 2005, 2010, and 2015. Feasibility of assessment and room for improvement were estimated by the denominator (patients in whom QI could be measured) and numerator (patients who satisfied the QI, among those eligible). Associations between composite QIs (CQIs) and mortality were assessed by multivariate analysis. Centre benchmarking was based on the centres mean CQI, vs. the national mean. The 2020 QIs were measured in 12 660/13 130 patients from FAST-MI. Measurement feasibility ranged from 15% to 100% with greater potential for implementation with the 2020 QI set. The mean (±SD) value of the opportunity-based CQI was 0.72 ± 0.01 and attainment of the all-or-none CQI 8.5%. Both CQIs were associated with adjusted 1-year mortality. Centre categorization into low, intermediate, and high quality was feasible, and distinguished centres with differing mortality. Conclusion Most of the 2020 QI can be measured from existing registries in all domains but not in the patient’s satisfaction domain. This assessment shows potential for implementation. Both CQIs were inversely associated with one-year mortality and centre benchmarking was feasible.

Adapting dashboard design to different contexts of use is an open question in visualisation research. Dashboard designers often seek to strike a balance between dashboard adaptability and ease-of-use, and in hospitals challenges arise from the vast diversity of key metrics, data models and users involved at different organizational levels. In this design study, we present QualDash, a dashboard generation engine that allows for the dynamic configuration and deployment of visualisation dashboards for healthcare quality improvement (QI). We present a rigorous task analysis based on interviews with healthcare professionals, a co-design workshop and a series of one-on-one meetings with front line analysts. From these activities we define a metric card metaphor as a unit of visual analysis in healthcare QI, using this concept as a building block for generating highly adaptable dashboards, and leading to the design of a Metric Specification Structure (MSS). Each MSS is a JSON structure which enables dashboard authors to concisely configure unit-specific variants of a metric card, while offloading common patterns that are shared across cards to be preset by the engine. We reflect on deploying and iterating the design of QualDash in cardiology wards and pediatric intensive care units of five NHS hospitals. Finally, we report evaluation results that demonstrate the adaptability, ease-of-use and usefulness of QualDash in a real-world scenario.

To use Quality Indicators to study the management of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in different regions.Prospective cohort study of STEMI within 24 hours of symptom onset (11,462 patients, 196 centres, 26 ESC member and 3 affiliated countries). The median delay between arrival at a PCI centre and primary PCI was 40 min (IQR 20 to 74) with 65.8% receiving PCI within guideline recommendation of 60 min. A third of patients (33.2%) required transfer from their initial hospital to one that could perform emergency PCI for whom only 27.2% were treated within the quality indicator recommendation of 120 mins. Radial access was used in 56.6% of all primary PCI, but with large geographic variation, from 76.4% to 9.1%. Statins were prescribed at discharge to 98.7% of patients, with little geographic variation. Of patients with a history of heart failure or a documented LVEF ≤40%, 84.0% were discharged on an ACEI/ARB and 88.7% were discharged on beta blockers.Care for STEMI shows wide geographic variation in the receipt of timely primary PCI, and is in contrast with the more uniform delivery of guideline-recommended pharmacotherapies at time of hospital discharge.

Medicines are often suboptimally managed for heart failure patients across the transition from hospital to home, potentially leading to poor patient outcomes. The Improving the Safety and Continuity Of Medicines management at Transitions of care programme included: understanding the problems faced by patients and healthcare professionals; developing and co-designing the Medicines at Transitions of care Intervention (MaTI); a cluster randomized controlled trial testing the effectiveness of a complex behavioural MaTI aimed at improving medicines management at the interface between hospitals discharge and community care for patients with heart failure; and a process evaluation. The MaTI included a patient-held My Medicines Toolkit; enhanced communication between the hospital and the patient's community pharmacist and increased engagement of the community pharmacist postdischarge. This paper reports on the patients' experiences of the MaTI and its implementation from the process evaluation.Twenty one-to-one semi-structured patient interviews from six intervention sites were conducted between November 2018 and January 2020. Data were analysed using the Framework method, involving patients as co-analysts. Interview data were triangulated with routine trial data, the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and a logic model.Within the hospital setting patients engaged with the toolkit according to whether staff raised awareness of the My Medicines Toolkit's importance and the time and place of its introduction. Patients' engagement with community pharmacy depended on their awareness of the community pharmacist's role, support sources and perceptions of involvement in medicines management. The toolkit's impact on patients' medicines management at home included reassurance during gaps in care, increased knowledge of medicines, enhanced ability to monitor health and seek support and supporting sharing medicines management between formal and informal care networks.Many patients perceived that the MaTI offered them support in their medicines management when transitioning from hospital into the community. Importantly, it can be incorporated into and built upon patients' lived experiences of heart failure. Key to its successful implementation is the quality of engagement of healthcare professionals in introducing the intervention.Patients were involved in the study design, as qualitative data co-analysts and as co-authors.

Background Myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is common and occurs in 6–8% of all patients fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This paper describes the rationale behind the trial ‘Randomized Evaluation of Beta Blocker and ACE-Inhibitor/Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Treatment (ACEI/ARB) of MINOCA patients’ (MINOCA-BAT) and the need to improve the secondary preventive treatment of MINOCA patients. Methods MINOCA-BAT is a registry-based, randomized, parallel, open-label, multicenter trial with 2:2 factorial design. The primary aim is to determine whether oral beta blockade compared with no oral beta blockade, and ACEI/ARB compared with no ACEI/ARB, reduce the composite endpoint of death of any cause, readmission because of AMI, ischemic stroke or heart failure in patients discharged after MINOCA without clinical signs of heart failure and with left ventricular ejection fraction ≥40%. A total of 3500 patients will be randomized into four groups; e.g. ACEI/ARB and beta blocker, beta blocker only, ACEI/ARB only and neither ACEI/ARB nor beta blocker, and followed for a mean of 4 years. Summary While patients with MINOCA have an increased risk of serious cardiovascular events and death, whether conventional secondary preventive therapies are beneficial has not been assessed in randomized trials. There is a limited basis for guideline recommendations in MINOCA. Furthermore, studies of routine clinical practice suggest that use of secondary prevention therapies in MINOCA varies considerably. Thus results from this trial may influence future treatment strategies and guidelines specific to MINOCA patients.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in older people and is associated with increased stroke risk that may be reduced by oral anticoagulation (OAC). Frailty also increases with increasing age, yet the extent of OAC prescription in older people according to extent of frailty in people with AF is insufficiently described. Methods An electronic health records study of 536,955 patients aged ≥65 years from ResearchOne in England (384 General Practices), over 15.4 months, last follow-up 11th April 2017. OAC prescription for AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, adjusted (demographic and treatments) risk of all-cause mortality, and subsequent cerebrovascular disease, bleeding and falls were estimated by electronic frailty index (eFI) category of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty. Results AF prevalence and mean CHA2DS2-Vasc for those with AF increased with increasing eFI category (fit 2.9%, 2.2; mild 11.2%, 3.2; moderate 22.2%, 4.0; and severe 31.5%, 5.0). For AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, OAC prescription was higher for mild (53.2%), moderate (55.6%) and severe (53.4%) eFI categories than fit (41.7%). In those with AF and eligible for OAC, frailty was associated with increased risk of death (HR for severe frailty compared with fit 4.09, 95% confidence interval 3.43–4.89), gastrointestinal bleeding (2.17, 1.45–3.25), falls (8.03, 4.60–14.03) and, among women, stroke (3.63, 1.10–12.02). Conclusion Among older people in England, AF and stroke risk increased with increasing degree of frailty; however, OAC prescription approximated 50%. Given competing demands of mortality, morbidity and stroke prevention, greater attention to stratified stroke prevention is needed for this group of the population.

Aims To investigate trends in the prescription of oral anticoagulants (OACs) and antiplatelet agents for atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and results Prescription data for 450 518 patients with AF from 3352 General Practices in England, was obtained from the GRASP-AF registry, 2009–2018. Annualized temporal trends for OAC and antiplatelet prescription were reported according to eligibility based on stroke risk (CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥1 or >2, respectively). From 2009 to 2018, the prevalence of AF increased from 1.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5–1.7%] to 2.4% (2.3–2.5%), and for those with AF the proportion prescribed OAC increased from 47.6% to 75.0% (P-trend < 0.001; relative risk 1.57, 95% CI 1.55–1.60) and for antiplatelet decreased from 37.4% to 9.2% (P-trend < 0.001). In early-years (2009–2013), eligible patients aged ≥80 years were less likely to be prescribed OAC than patients aged Conclusion Between 2009 and 2018, in England, the use of OAC for stroke prophylaxis in AF increased, with DOAC accounting for over half of OAC uptake in 2018. Despite a reduction in the OAC-prescription gap, a new paradox exists relating to DOAC prescription for the elderly and those at higher risk of stroke.

The availability of large datasets from multiple sources [e.g. registries, biobanks, electronic health records (EHRs), claims or billing databases, implantable devices, wearable sensors, and mobile apps], coupled with advances in computing and analytic technologies, have provided new opportunities for conducting innovative health research. Equally, improved digital access to health information has facilitated the conduct of efficient randomized controlled trials (RCTs) upon which clinical management decisions can be based, for instance, by permitting the identification of eligible patients for recruitment and/or linkage for follow-up via their EHRs. Given these advances in cardiovascular data science and the complexities they behold, it is important that health professionals have clarity on the appropriate use and interpretation of observational, so-called ‘real-world’, and randomized data in cardiovascular medicine. The Cardiovascular Roundtable of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) held a workshop to explore the future of RCTs and the current and emerging opportunities for gathering and exploiting complex observational datasets in cardiovascular research. The aim of this article is to provide a perspective on the appropriate use of randomized and observational data and to outline the ESC plans for supporting the collection and availability of clinical data to monitor and improve the quality of care of patients with cardiovascular disease in Europe and provide an infrastructure for undertaking pragmatic RCTs. Moreover, the ESC continues to campaign for greater engagement amongst regulators, industry, patients, and health professionals in the development and application of a more efficient regulatory framework that is able to take maximal advantage of new opportunities for improving the design and efficiency of observational studies and RCT in patients with cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: International guidelines recommend that for NSTEMI, the timing of invasive strategy (IS) is a function of patient's baseline risk. The extent to which this is delivered across and within healthcare systems is unknown. METHODS: Data were derived from 137,265 patients admitted with an NSTEMI diagnosis between 2010 and 2015 in England and Wales. Patients were stratified into low, intermediate and high-risk in keeping with international guidelines. Time to IS was categorised into early (24 h), intermediate (25-72 h) and late (>72 h). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify independent predictors of guidelines recommended receipt of IS. RESULTS: There were 3608 (2.6%) low, 5037 (3.7%) intermediate and 128,621 (93.7%) high-risk patients. Guidelines recommended use of IS was significantly lower in high-risk (16.4%) compared to intermediate (64.7%) and low-risk (62.5%) groups. Both men and women in the low-risk category were almost twice as likely to receive early IS compared to high-risk men (28.9% vs 17%, p

ObjectiveAtrial fibrillation (AF) screening by age achieves a low yield and misses younger individuals. We aimed to develop an algorithm in nationwide routinely collected primary care data to predict the risk of incident AF within 6 months (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)).MethodsWe used primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between 2 January 1998 and 30 November 2018, randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We trained a random forest classifier using age, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities. Prediction performance was evaluated in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex category) and C2HEST (Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point each), Hypertension, Elderly (age ≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) scores. Cox proportional hazard models with competing risk of death were fit for incident longer-term AF between higher and lower FIND-AF-predicted risk.ResultsOf 2 081 139 individuals in the cohort, 7386 developed AF within 6 months. FIND-AF could be applied to all records. In the testing dataset (n=416 228), discrimination performance was strongest for FIND-AF (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.824, 95% CI 0.814 to 0.834) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.784, 0.773 to 0.794) and C2HEST (0.757, 0.744 to 0.770), and robust by sex and ethnic group. The higher predicted risk cohort, compared with lower predicted risk, had a 20-fold higher 6-month incidence rate for AF and higher long-term hazard for AF (HR 8.75, 95% CI 8.44 to 9.06).ConclusionsFIND-AF, a machine learning algorithm applicable at scale in routinely collected primary care data, identifies people at higher risk of short-term AF.

Background Statins reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), however, their clinical benefit for primary and secondary prevention among older adults with frailty is uncertain. This review investigates whether statins prescribed for primary and secondary prevention are associated with reduced MACE among adults aged ≥65 years with frailty. Methods Systematic review of studies published between 01.01.1952 and 01.01.2019 in MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and the International Pharmaceutical Abstracts. Studies that investigated the effect of statins on MACE among adults ≥65 years with a validated frailty assessment were included. Data were extracted from the papers as per a pre-published protocol, PROSPERO: CRD42019127486. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias in non-randomised studies of interventions. Finding 18794 abstracts were identified for screening. From these, six cohort studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were no randomised clinical trials. Of studies involving statins for primary and secondary prevention (n = 6), one found statins were associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37–0.93) and another found they were not (p = 0.73). One study of statins used for secondary prevention found they were associated with reduced mortality (HR 0.28, 95%CI 0.21–0.39). No studies investigated the effect of statins for primary prevention or the effect of statins on the frequency of MACE. Discussion This review summarizes the existing available evidence for decision making for statin prescribing for older adults with frailty. This study identified only observational evidence that, among older people with frailty, statins are associated with reduced mortality when prescribed for secondary prevention, and an absence of evidence evaluating statin therapy for primary prevention. The findings of this study highlight that randomised trial data are urgently needed to better inform the use of statins among older adults living with frailty.

Background The debate about statins in primary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) disease is still alive, especially in old and very old adults. Purpose We undertook a propensity match-weighted cohort study to investigate whether statin treatment recommendations translate into improved cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in the current routine clinical care of the elderly. Methods We included in our analysis 5,619 people aged 65 years or older from the ISACS (International Survey of Acute Coronary Syndrome) Archives (NCT04008173) who presented to hospital with a first manifestation of CV disease. Participants were stratified as statin users versus nonusers and as old (65 to 75 years) versus very old (76 years or over) adults. We estimated the effects of statins on the most severe clinical manifestation of CV disease, namely ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), using inverse probability of treatment weighting models. Estimates were compared by test of interaction on the log scale. Results The risk of STEMI was much lower in statin users than in nonusers in both patients aged 65 to 75 years (14.7% absolute risk reduction; relative risk [RR] ratio: 0.55, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.66) and those aged 76 years and older (13.3% absolute risk reduction; RR ratio: 0.58, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.72). Estimates were similar in patients with and without history of hypercholesterolemia (interaction test; p value= 0.2408). Proportional reductions in STEMI diminished with female sex in the old (p for interaction=0.002), but not in the very old age (p for interaction=0.26). We also observed a remarkable reduction in the risk of 30- day mortality from STEMI with statin therapy in both age groups (10.2% absolute risk reduction; RR ratio: 0.39; 95% CI 0.23 – 0.68 for patients aged 76 or over and 3.8% absolute risk reduction; RR ratio 0.37; 95% CI 0.17 – 0.82 for patients aged 65 to 75 years old; interaction test, p value=0.4570). Conclusion Preventive statin therapy in the elderly reduces the risk of STEMI with benefits in mortality from STEMI, irrespective of the presence of a history of hypercholesterolemia. This effect persists after the age of 76 years. Benefits are less pronounced in women. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are effective and safe alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether this extends to patients at the extremes of body mass index (BMI) is unclear.Using linked primary and secondary data, Jan 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2018, we included CHAWe included 29,135 (22,818 warfarin, 6317 DOAC); 585 (2.0%) underweight, 8427 (28.9%) normal weight, 10,705 (36.7%) overweight, 5910 (20.3%) class I obesity and 3508 (12.0%) class II/III obesity. Patients treated with DOACs were older and more comorbid. After 3.7 (SD 2.5) years follow up, there was no difference in risk of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding by BMI category between DOACs and warfarin. Normal weight, overweight and obese class I patients had higher risk of all-cause mortality when treated with DOACs compared with warfarin (HR: 1.45 [95% CI 1.24-1.69],In patients with AF in each BMI classification we found no difference in ischaemic stroke and bleeding risk for DOACs compared with warfarin. Underweight patients experienced divergent risk-benefit patterns from oral anticoagulation compared with other BMI categories.None.

Aims To develop a set of quality indicators (QIs) for the evaluation of the care and outcomes for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention. Methods and results The Quality Indicator Committee of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) formed the Working Group for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Quality Indicators in collaboration with Task Force members of the 2021 ESC Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice and the European Association of Preventive Cardiology (EAPC). We followed the ESC methodology for QI development, which involved (i) the identification of the key domains of care for ASCVD prevention by constructing a conceptual framework of care, (ii) the development of candidate QIs by conducting a systematic review of the literature, (iii) the selection of the final set of QIs using a modified Delphi method, and (iv) the evaluation of the feasibility of the developed QIs. In total, 17 main and 14 secondary QIs were selected across six domains of care for ASCVD prevention: (i) structural framework, (ii) risk assessment, (iii) care for people at risk for ASCVD, (iv) care for patients with established ASCVD, (v) patient education and experience, and (vi) outcomes. Conclusion We present the 2021 ESC QIs for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention, which have been co-constructed with EAPC using the ESC methodology for QI development. These indicators are supported by evidence from the literature, underpinned by expert consensus and aligned with the 2021 ESC Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice to offer a mechanism for the evaluation of ASCVD prevention care and outcomes.

Aims People with atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently live with frailty, which increases the risk of mortality and stroke. This study reports the association between oral anticoagulation (OAC) and outcomes for people with frailty, and whether there is overall net benefit from treatment in people with AF. Methods and results Retrospective open cohort electronic records study. Frailty was identified using the electronic frailty index. Primary care electronic health records of 89 996 adults with AF and CHA2DS2-Vasc score of ≥2 were linked with secondary care and mortality data in the Clinical Practice Research Database (CPRD) from 1 January 1998 to 30 November 2018. The primary outcome was a composite of death, stroke, systemic embolism, or major bleeding. Secondary outcomes were stroke, major bleeding, all-cause mortality, transient ischaemic attack, and falls. Of 89 996 participants, 71 256 (79.2%) were living with frailty. The prescription of OAC increased with degree of frailty. For patients not prescribed OAC, rates of the primary outcome increased alongside frailty category. Prescription of OAC was associated with a reduction in the primary outcome for each frailty category [adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval, no OAC as reference; fit: vitamin K antagonist (VKA) 0.69, 0.64–0.75, direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) 0.42, 0.33–0.53; mild frailty: VKA 0.52, 0.50–0.54, DOAC 0.57, 0.52–0.63; moderate: VKA 0.54, 0.52–0.56, DOAC 0.57, 0.52–0.63; severe: VKA 0.48, 0.45–0.51, DOAC 0.58, 0.52–0.65], with cumulative incidence function effects greater for DOAC than VKA. Conclusion Frailty among people with AF is common. The OAC was associated with a reduction in the primary endpoint across all degrees of frailty.

BACKGROUND: Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with those expected from historical trends have been unequally distributed, both geographically and socioeconomically. Not all excess deaths have been directly related to COVID-19 infection. We investigated geographical and socioeconomic patterns in excess deaths for major groups of underlying causes during the pandemic.METHODS: Weekly mortality data from 27/12/2014 to 2/10/2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends for deaths caused directly by COVID-19 (and other respiratory causes) and those caused indirectly by it (cardiovascular disease or diabetes, cancers, and all other indirect causes) over the first 30 weeks of the pandemic (7/3/2020-2/10/2020).FINDINGS: There were 62,321 (95% CI: 58,849 to 65,793) excess deaths in England and Wales in the first 30 weeks of the pandemic. Of these, 46,221 (95% CI: 45,439 to 47,003) were attributable to respiratory causes, including COVID-19, and 16,100 (95% CI: 13,410 to 18,790) to other causes. Rates of all-cause excess mortality ranged from 78 per 100,000 in the South West of England and in Wales to 130 per 100,000 in the West Midlands; and from 93 per 100,000 in the most affluent fifth of areas to 124 per 100,000 in the most deprived. The most deprived areas had the highest rates of death attributable to COVID-19 and other indirect deaths, but there was no socioeconomic gradient for excess deaths from cardiovascular disease/diabetes and cancer.INTERPRETATION: During the first 30 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic there was significant geographic and socioeconomic variation in excess deaths for respiratory causes, but not for cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer. Pandemic recovery plans, including vaccination programmes, should take account of individual characteristics including health, socioeconomic status and place of residence.FUNDING: None.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) often coexist as they share multiple risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and coronary artery disease. Although there is irrefutable evidence supporting anticoagulation in AF in the general population, these data may not be transferable to the setting of advanced CKD, where the decision to commence anticoagulation poses a conundrum. In this cohort, there is a progressively increased risk of both ischemic stroke and hemorrhage as renal function declines, complicating the decision to initiate anticoagulation. No definitive clinical guidelines derived from randomized controlled trials exist to aid clinical decision-making, and the findings from observational studies are conflicting. In this review, the authors outline the pathophysiological mechanisms at play and summarize the limited existing data related to anticoagulation in those with concomitant CKD and AF. Finally, the authors suggest how to approach the decision of whether and how to use oral anticoagulation in these patients.

Aims To compare ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) mortality between Sweden and the UK, adjusting for background population rates of expected death, case mix, and treatments. Methods and results National data were collected from hospitals in Sweden [n = 73 hospitals, 180 368 patients, Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART)] and the UK [n = 247, 662 529 patients, Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP)] between 2003 and 2013. There were lower rates of revascularization [STEMI (43.8% vs. 74.9%); NSTEMI (27.5% vs. 43.6%)] and pharmacotherapies at time of hospital discharge including [aspirin (82.9% vs. 90.2%) and (79.9% vs. 88.0%), β-blockers (73.4% vs. 86.4%) and (65.3% vs. 85.1%)] in the UK compared with Sweden, respectively. Standardized net probability of death (NPD) between admission and 1 month was higher in the UK for STEMI [8.0 (95% confidence interval 7.4–8.5) vs. 6.7 (6.5–6.9)] and NSTEMI [6.8 (6.4–7.2) vs. 4.9 (4.7–5.0)]. Between 6 months and 1 year and more than 1 year, NPD remained higher in the UK for NSTEMI [2.9 (2.5–3.3) vs. 2.3 (2.2–2.5)] and [21.4 (20.0–22.8) vs. 18.3 (17.6–19.0)], but was similar for STEMI [0.7 (0.4–1.0) vs. 0.9 (0.7–1.0)] and [8.4 (6.7–10.1) vs. 8.3 (7.5–9.1)]. Conclusion Short-term mortality following STEMI and NSTEMI was higher in the UK compared with Sweden. Mid- and longer-term mortality remained higher in the UK for NSTEMI but was similar for STEMI. Differences in mortality may be due to differential use of guideline-indicated treatments.

This Review presents data describing the health burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within and across the WHO European Region. CVD remains the most common cause of death in the region. Deaths from CVD in those aged70 years, commonly referred to as premature, are a particular concern, with60 million potential years of life lost to CVD in Europe annually. Although more women than men die from CVD, age-standardized rates of both morbidity and death are higher in men, and these differences in rates are greatest in individuals aged70 years. Large inequalities in all measures of morbidity, treatment and mortality can be found between countries across the continent and must be a focus for improving health. Large differences also exist in the data available between countries. The development and implementation of evidence-based preventive and treatment approaches must be supported in all countries by consistent surveillance and monitoring, such that we can quantify the health burden of CVD as well as target interventions and provide impetus for action across Europe.

ObjectiveAtrial fibrillation (AF) is common and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse multivariable prediction models derived and/or validated in electronic health records (EHRs) and/or administrative claims databases for the prediction of incident AF in the community.MethodsOvid Medline and Ovid Embase were searched for records from inception to 23 March 2021. Measures of discrimination were extracted and pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool and certainty in effect estimates by Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation.ResultsEleven studies met inclusion criteria, describing nine prediction models, with four eligible for meta-analysis including 9 289 959 patients. The CHADS (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke or transient ischemic attack) (summary c-statistic 0.674; 95% CI 0.610 to 0.732; 95% PI 0.526–0.815), CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex category) (summary c-statistic 0.679; 95% CI 0.620 to 0.736; 95% PI 0.531–0.811) and HATCH (Hypertension, Age, stroke or Transient ischemic attack, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Heart failure) (summary c-statistic 0.669; 95% CI 0.600 to 0.732; 95% PI 0.513–0.803) models resulted in a c-statistic with a statistically significant 95% PI and moderate discriminative performance. No model met eligibility for inclusion in meta-analysis if studies at high risk of bias were excluded and certainty of effect estimates was ‘low’. Models derived by machine learning demonstrated strong discriminative performance, but lacked rigorous external validation.ConclusionsModels externally validated for prediction of incident AF in community-based EHR demonstrate moderate predictive ability and high risk of bias. Novel methods may provide stronger discriminative performance.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42021245093.

IntroductionSudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of death in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and can be prevented by the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Currently, risk stratification for SCD and decision on ICD implantation are based solely on impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, this strategy leads to over- and under-treatment of patients because LVEF alone is insufficient for accurate assessment of prognosis. Thus, there is a need for better risk stratification. This is the study protocol for developing and validating a prediction model for risk of SCD in patients with prior MI.Methods and AnalysisThe EU funded PROFID project will analyse 23 datasets from Europe, Israel and the US (∼225,000 observations). The datasets include patients with prior MI or ischemic cardiomyopathy with reduced LVEFEthics and disseminationLocal ethical approval was obtained. The final model will be disseminated through scientific publications and a web-calculator. Statistical code will be published through open-source repositories.

BackgroundDeaths in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in England & Wales have been shown to be unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups.MethodsYLL for registered deaths in England & Wales, from 27th December 2014 until 25th December 2020, were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England & Wales. Panel time-series models were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7th March 2020 and 25th December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease & diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths - all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group.FindingsBetween 7th March 2020 and 25th December 2020 there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England & Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from (916; 95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to (1,645; 95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, an average of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, an average of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in both in the North West.InterpretationDuring 2020, the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic, longstanding socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in England & Wales were exacerbated, with the most deprived areas suffering the greatest losses in potential years of life lost.FundingNone

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Disease trajectories model patterns of disease over time and can be mined by extracting diagnosis codes from electronic health records (EHR). Process mining provides a mature set of methods and tools that has been used to mine care pathways using event data from EHRs and could be applied to disease trajectories. This paper presents a literature review on process mining related to mining disease trajectories using EHRs. Our review identified 156 papers of potential interest but only four papers which directly applied process mining to disease trajectory modelling. These four papers are presented in detail covering data source, size, selection criteria, selections of the process mining algorithms, trajectory definition strategies, model visualisations, and the methods of evaluation. The literature review lays the foundations for further research leveraging the established benefits of process mining for the emerging data mining of disease trajectories.

Disease trajectories model patterns of disease over time and can be mined by extracting diagnosis codes from electronic health records (EHR). Process mining provides a mature set of methods and tools that has been used to mine care pathways using event data from EHRs and could be applied to disease trajectories. This paper presents a literature review on process mining related to mining disease trajectories using EHRs. Our review identified 156 papers of potential interest but only four papers which directly applied process mining to disease trajectory modelling. These four papers are presented in detail covering data source, size, selection criteria, selections of the process mining algorithms, trajectory definition strategies, model visualisations, and the methods of evaluation. The literature review lays the foundations for further research leveraging the established benefits of process mining for the emerging data mining of disease trajectories.

Background Right ventricular pacing (RVP) may cause electrical and mechanical desynchrony leading to impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). We investigated the outcomes of RVP with His bundle pacing (HBP) and left bundle branch pacing (LBBP) for patients requiring a de novo permanent pacemaker (PPM) for bradyarrhythmia. Methods and results Systematic review of randomized clinical trials and observational studies comparing HBP or LBP with RVP for de novo PPM implantation between 01 January 2013 and 17 November 2020 was performed. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses of the effect of pacing technology on outcomes were performed. Study outcomes included all-cause mortality, heart failure hospitalization (HFH), LVEF, QRS duration, lead revision, atrial fibrillation, procedure parameters, and pacing metrics. Overall, 9 studies were included (6 observational, 3 randomised). HBP compared with RVP was associated with decreased HFH (risk ratio [RR] 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49–0.94), preservation of LVEF (mean difference [MD] 0.81, 95% CI − 1.23 to 2.85 vs. − 5.72, 95% CI − 7.64 to -3.79), increased procedure duration (MD 15.17 min, 95% CI 11.30–19.04), and increased lead revisions (RR 5.83, 95% CI 2.17–15.70, p = 0.0005). LBBP compared with RVP was associated with shorter paced QRS durations (MD 5.6 ms, 95% CI − 6.4 to 17.6) vs. (51.0 ms, 95% CI 39.2–62.9) and increased procedure duration (MD 37.78 min, 95% CI 20.04–55.51). Conclusion Of the limited studies published, this meta-analysis found that HBP and LBBP were superior to RVP in maintaining physiological ventricular activation as an initial pacing strategy.

Care pathways for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) were interrupted during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A new cardiac MRI study has revealed that increased total ischaemic time for patients with STEMI during major public health restrictions was associated with increased infarct size and other markers of myocardial damage.