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Here we present retrievals of aerosol optical depth τ from an Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) station in the southeastern corner of California, an area where dust storms are frequent. By combining AERONET data with collocated ceilometer measurements, camera imagery, and satellite data, we show that during significant dust outbreaks the AERONET cloud-screening algorithm oftentimes classifies dusty measurements as cloud contaminated, thus removing them from the aerosol record. During dust storms we estimate that approximately 85% of all dusty retrievals of τ and more than 95% of retrievals when τ > 0.1 are rejected, resulting in a factor-of-2 reduction in dust-storm averaged τ. We document the specific components in the screening algorithm responsible for the misclassification. We find that a major reason for the loss of these dusty measurements is the high temporal variability in τ during the passage of dust storms over the site, which itself is related to the proximity of the site to the locations of emission. We describe a method to recover these dusty measurements that is based on collocated ceilometer measurements. These results suggest that AERONET sites that are located close to dust source regions may require ancillary measurements to aid in the identification of dust. Significance Statement In this study we demonstrate that, during dust storms, measurements made with a sun photometer at an AERONET site in the western Sonoran Desert are frequently classified as cloud contaminated by the network’s processing algorithm. We identify the various algorithmic tests that result in the misclassification and discuss the physical reasons why dust typically fails those tests. We then present a method to restore these data that utilizes measurements from a collocated ceilometer. This work highlights the challenges, and one solution, to operating an AERONET site in a region that is close to the sources of airborne dust.

Mineral dust aerosols impact the energy budget of Earth through interactions with radiation, clouds, atmospheric chemistry, the cryosphere and biogeochemistry. In this Review, we summarize these interactions and assess the resulting impacts of dust, and of changes in dust, on global climate and climate change. The total effect of dust interactions on the global energy budget of Earth — the dust effective radiative effect — is −0.2 ± 0.5 W m−2 (90% confidence interval), suggesting that dust net cools the climate. Global dust mass loading has increased 55 ± 30% since pre-industrial times, driven largely by increases in dust from Asia and North Africa, leading to changes in the energy budget of Earth. Indeed, this increase in dust has produced a global mean effective radiative forcing of −0.07 ± 0.18 W m−2, somewhat counteracting greenhouse warming. Current climate models and climate assessments do not represent the historical increase in dust and thus omit the resulting radiative forcing, biasing climate change projections and assessments of climate sensitivity. Climate model simulations of future changes in dust diverge widely and are very uncertain. Further work is thus needed to constrain the radiative effects of dust on climate and to improve the representation of dust in climate models.

As the planet warms, mountain snowpack is expected to melt progressively earlier each spring. However, analysis of measurements in the western United States shows that the change in the date when snowpack disappears is not uniform: for 1 °C of warming, snowpack disappears 30 days earlier in some regions, whereas there is almost no change in others. Here we present an idealized physical model that simulates the timing of snowpack melt under changing temperature and use it to show that this observed disparity in the sensitivity of snowpack disappearance to warming results from a mechanism related to the sinusoidal shape of the annual cycle of temperature. Applying this model globally, we show that under uniform warming the timing of snowpack disappearance will change most rapidly in coastal regions, the Arctic, the western United States, Central Europe and South America, with much smaller changes in the northern interiors of North America and Eurasia. Warming causes mountain snowpack to melt earlier during local spring. An idealized model suggests that melt date sensitivity to warming depends largely on mean temperature and its seasonal cycle; the largest sensitivities are seen in coastal regions, the Arctic, western United States, Central Europe and South America.

Atmospheric rivers (AR) are narrow bands of strong horizontal transport of water vapor in the midlatitudes that can cause extreme precipitation, which contributes to beneficial water supply and sometimes flooding. The precipitation productivity of an AR is affected by microphysical processes, including the influence of aerosols. Earlier case studies have shown that some ARs over the North Pacific Ocean contain dust from Africa and Asia that can strongly influence precipitation by acting as ice nuclei. This paper explores how commonly dust and ARs occur together, or in close proximity. A “dust score” is introduced to characterize the dustiness of the environment associated with ARs by using satellite-based observations. This method is applied to days on which one or more ARs made landfall along the west coast of the United States between 2001 and 2018. The dust score is used to describe the seasonality and year-to-year variability of dusty-environment ARs. Dusty ARs occur primarily in the early spring (March–April), and dust is preferentially found within the warm sector of AR-associated extratropical cyclones and is also enhanced in the cold sector. Year-to-year variability in dust score is dependent more on year-to-year variability in dust than on the frequency of AR days. This year-to-year variability is also strongly related to correlations between the frequency of ARs and the dustiness of the northeastern Pacific, motivating additional investigation into potential dynamical association between dust and ARs.

The Salton basin is an arid, sub-sea level basin located in southeastern California. Mountain ranges border the basin directly to the west and east, to the north extends a narrow valley that termin...

The Salton basin is a closed, subsea level basin located in extreme southeastern California. At the center of the basin lies the Salton Sea, the state’s largest inland lake, which is surrounded by a desert landscape characterized by paleo lakebed surfaces, dry washes, alluvial fans, and interdunes. Dust storms are common occurrence in this region. However, despite the regularity of dust outbreaks here, little is known about the meteorological processes responsible for these storms. Here I use observations and output from reanalysis to elucidate the meteorological controls on dust emission events in the Salton basin during 2015–18. Analysis of surface and upper-air observations, satellite data, and reanalysis, suggest that the largest dust storms in the region are associated with an upper-level low centered near the coastline of western Canada, which directs a zonal low-level jet over the region. Flow blocking by a coastal mountain range results in isentropic drawdown of air in the lee of these mountains. Once surface warming at the floor of the Salton basin is sufficient such that the density of the descending air is greater than that of the ambient air at the surface, the downslope windstorm reaches the desert floor and initiates dust emission. This process may also be accompanied by a downwind propagating hydraulic jump. These processes appear to be similar to those responsible for the strongest dust events in the Owens Valley, and may represent the main mechanisms for emission from other closed basins.

African dust exhibits strong variability on a range of time scales. Here we show that the interhemispheric contrast in Atlantic SST (ICAS) drives African dust variability at decadal to millennial timescales, and the strong anthropogenic increase of the ICAS in the future will decrease African dust loading to a level never seen during the Holocene. We provide a physical framework to understand the relationship between the ICAS and African dust activity: positive ICAS anomalies push the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) northward and decrease surface wind speed over African dust source regions, which reduces dust emission and transport. It provides a unified framework for and is consistent with relationships in the literature. We find strong observational and proxy‐record support for the ICAS‐ITCZ‐dust relationship during the past 160 and 17,000 years. Model‐projected anthropogenic increase of the ICAS will reduce African dust by as much as 60%, which has broad consequences. We posit that dust cannot be thought of as a purely natural phenomenon.

By mass, dust is the largest contributor to global aerosol burden, yet long-term observational records of dust, particularly over the ocean, are limited. Here, two nearly global observational datasets of dust aerosol optical depth τd are created primarily on the basis of optical measurements of the aerosol column from 1) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite spanning from 2001 to 2018 and 2) the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) from 1981 to 2018. The quality of the new data is assessed by comparison with existing dust datasets that are spatially more limited. Between 2001 and 2018, τd decreased over Asia and increased significantly over the Sahara, Middle East, and parts of eastern Europe, with the largest increase found over the Aral Sea where emissive playa surfaces have been exposed. These daily, observational, and nearly global records of dust will allow for improvement in understanding the role of dust in climate variability.

By mass, dust is the largest contributor to global aerosol burden, yet long-term observational records of dust, particularly over the ocean, are limited. Here, two nearly global observational datasets of dust aerosol optical depthτdare created primarily on the basis of optical measurements of the aerosol column from 1) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard theTerrasatellite spanning from 2001 to 2018 and 2) the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) from 1981 to 2018. The quality of the new data is assessed by comparison with existing dust datasets that are spatially more limited. Between 2001 and 2018,τddecreased over Asia and increased significantly over the Sahara, Middle East, and parts of eastern Europe, with the largest increase found over the Aral Sea where emissive playa surfaces have been exposed. These daily, observational, and nearly global records of dust will allow for improvement in understanding the role of dust in climate variability.

The Salton basin is a closed, subsea level basin located in extreme southeastern California. At the center of the basin lies the Salton Sea, the state’s largest inland lake, which is surrounded by a desert landscape characterized by paleo lakebed surfaces, dry washes, alluvial fans, and interdunes. Dust storms are common occurrence in this region. However, despite the regularity of dust outbreaks here, little is known about the meteorological processes responsible for these storms. Here I use observations and output from reanalysis to elucidate the meteorological controls on dust emission events in the Salton basin during 2015–18. Analysis of surface and upper-air observations, satellite data, and reanalysis, suggest that the largest dust storms in the region are associated with an upper-level low centered near the coastline of western Canada, which directs a zonal low-level jet over the region. Flow blocking by a coastal mountain range results in isentropic drawdown of air in the lee of these mountains. Once surface warming at the floor of the Salton basin is sufficient such that the density of the descending air is greater than that of the ambient air at the surface, the downslope windstorm reaches the desert floor and initiates dust emission. This process may also be accompanied by a downwind propagating hydraulic jump. These processes appear to be similar to those responsible for the strongest dust events in the Owens Valley, and may represent the main mechanisms for emission from other closed basins.

Clouds substantially affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts. Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.

In the western United States, water stored as mountain snowpack is a large percentage of the total water needed to meet the region’s demands, and it is likely that, as the planet continues to warm, mountain snowpack will decline. However, detecting such trends in the observational record is challenging because snowpack is highly variable in both space and time. Here, a method for characterizing mountain snowpack is developed that is based on fitting observed annual cycles of snow water equivalent (SWE) to a gamma-distribution probability density function. A new method for spatially interpolating the distribution’s fitting parameters to create a gridded climatology of SWE is also presented. Analysis of these data shows robust trends in the shape of the annual cycle of snowpack in the western United States. Over the 1982–2017 water years, the annual cycle of snowpack is becoming narrower and more Gaussian. A narrowing of the annual cycle corresponds to a shrinking of the length of the winter season, primarily because snowpack melting is commencing earlier in the water year. Because the annual cycle of snowpack at high elevations tends to be more skewed than at lower elevations, a more Gaussian shape suggests that snowpack is becoming more characteristic of that at lower elevations. Although no robust downward trends in annual-mean SWE are found, robust trends in the shape of the SWE annual cycle have implications for regional water resources.

Through the latter half of the twentieth century, meridional shifts in tropical precipitation have been associated with severe droughts. Although linked to a variety of causes, the origin of these shifts remains elusive. Here, it is shown that they are unlikely to arise from internal variability of the climate system alone, as simulated by coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. Similar to previous work, the authors find that anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols are the dominant drivers of simulated twentieth-century tropical precipitation shifts. Models that include the cloud-albedo and lifetime aerosol indirect effects yield significantly larger shifts than models that lack aerosol indirect effects and also reproduce most of the southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. However, all models significantly underestimate the magnitude of the observed shifts in the Atlantic sector, unless driven by observed SSTs. Mechanistically, tropical precipitation shifts are driven by interhemispheric sea surface temperature variations, which are associated with hemispherically asymmetric changes in low-latitude surface pressure, winds, and low clouds, as well as the strength, location, and cross-equatorial energy transport of the Hadley cells. Models with a larger hemispheric aerosol radiative forcing gradient yield larger hemispheric temperature contrasts and, in turn, larger meridional precipitation shifts. The authors conclude that aerosols are likely the dominant driver of the observed southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. Aerosols are also significant drivers of the Atlantic shifts, although one cannot rule out a contribution from natural variability to account for the magnitude of the observed shifts.

Drought persistence in West African Sahel has often been explained as an effect of positive vegetation-atmosphere feedback associated with surface albedo or the partitioning of solar radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes. An often overlooked aspect of land-atmosphere coupling results from vegetation controls on dust emissions and the ability of mineral aerosols to suppress precipitation. Here we first consider the case of local (endogenous) dynamics within the Sahel, whereby enhanced dust emissions resulting from a decrease in vegetation partly suppress precipitation, thereby further reducing vegetation cover. We then account for teleconnections between Sahel precipitation and exogenous (i.e., Saharan) dust emissions due to an increase in Saharan wind speed in years of above average Sahel precipitation. We find that in both cases vegetation-climate dynamics may have two stable states, one with low precipitation and high concentration of atmospheric dust and the other with high precipitation and lower levels of atmospheric dust.

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) dataset and the Pathfinder Atmospheres–Extended (PATMOS-x) dataset are two commonly used multidecadal satellite cloud records. Because they are constructed from weather satellite measurements lacking long-term stability, ISCCP and PATMOS-x suffer from artifacts that inhibit their use for investigating cloud changes over recent decades. The present study describes and applies a post hoc method to empirically remove spurious variability from anomalies in total cloud fraction at each grid box. Spurious variability removed includes that associated with systematic changes in satellite zenith angle, drifts in satellite equatorial crossing time, and unrealistic large-scale spatially coherent anomalies associated with known and unidentified problems in instrument calibration and ancillary data. The basic method is to calculate for each grid box the least squares best-fit line between cloud anomalies and artifact factor anomalies, and to let the residuals from the best-fit line be the newly corrected data. After the correction procedure, the patterns of regional trends in ISCCP and PATMOS-x total cloud fraction appear much more natural. The corrected data cannot be used for studies of globally averaged cloud change, however, because the methods employed remove any real cloud variability occurring on global scales together with spurious variability. An examination of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) total cloud fraction data indicates that removing global-scale variability has little impact on regional patterns of cloud change. Corrected ISCCP and PATMOS-x data are available from the Research Data Archive at NCAR.

Feedbacks between the global dust cycle and the climate system might have amplified past climate changes. Yet, it remains unclear what role the dust–climate feedback will play in future anthropogenic climate change. Here, we estimate the direct dust–climate feedback, arising from changes in the dust direct radiative effect (DRE), using a simple theoretical framework that combines constraints on the dust DRE with a series of climate model results. We find that the direct dust–climate feedback is likely in the range of −0.04 to +0.02 Wm −2 K−1, such that it could account for a substantial fraction of the total aerosol feedbacks in the climate system. On a regional scale, the direct dust–climate feedback is enhanced by approximately an order of magnitude close to major source regions. This suggests that it could play an important role in shaping the future climates of Northern Africa, the Sahel, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and Central Asia., Feedbacks between desert dust and climate might have amplified past climate changes, yet their role in future climate change is unclear. Here the authors find that dust feedbacks could play a key role in the future climates of Northern Africa, the Sahel, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

Over the tropical North Atlantic, during boreal summer, both stratocumulus clouds and mineral aerosols are ubiquitous. We find that low cloud fraction increases in response to high mineral aerosols loadings by 3% to 10% over much of the tropical North Atlantic, in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISSCP) and Pathfinder Atmosphere Extended (PATMOSx) observations. Using the single-column mode of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate that this indirect effect nets a surface cooling of approximately −3 Wm−2 to −12 Wm−2 per unit of dust optical depth (DAOD) increase in mineral aerosols, similar to observed radiative forcings of −4 Wm−2 to −6 Wm−2 per unit of DAOD in ISSCP and PATMOSx. Increases in stratocumulus clouds are linked to increases in atmospheric stability, reductions in boundary layer height, and moistening of the lower atmosphere in response to increased dust load. Mineral dust is shown to behave similarly to other absorbing aerosols in indirectly forcing a response in stratocumulus clouds.

Aeolian dust is a key aspect of the climate system. Dust can modify the Earth's energy budget, provide long-range transport of nutrients, and influence land surface processes via erosion. Consequently, effective modeling of the climate system, particularly at regional scales, requires a reasonably accurate representation of dust emission, transport, and deposition. Here we evaluate African dust in 23 state-of-the-art global climate models used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that all models fail to reproduce basic aspects of dust emission and transport over the second half of the 20th century. The models systematically underestimate dust emission, transport and optical depth, and year-to-year changes in these properties bear little resemblance to observations. These findings cast doubt on the ability of these models to simulate the regional climate and the response of African dust to future climate change.

Long-term and direct measurements of surface shortwave radiation (SWR) have been recorded by the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) since 1997. Previous studies have shown that African dust, transported westward from the Sahara and Sahel regions, can accumulate on mooring SWR sensors in the high-dust region of the North Atlantic (8°–25°N, 20°–50°W), potentially leading to significant negative SWR biases. Here dust-accumulation biases are quantified for each PIRATA mooring using direct measurements from the moorings, combined with satellite and reanalysis datasets and statistical models. The SWR records from five locations in the high-dust region (8°, 12°, and 15°N along 38°W; 12° and 21°N along 23°W) are found to contain monthly-mean accumulation biases as large as −200 W m−2 and record-length mean biases on the order of −10 W m−2. The other 12 moorings, located mainly between 10°S and 4°N, are in regions of lower atmospheric dust concentration and do not show statistically significant biases. Seasonal-to-interannual variability of the accumulation bias is found at all locations in the high-dust region. The moorings along 38°W also show decreasing trends in the bias magnitude since 1998 that are possibly related to a corresponding negative trend in atmospheric dust concentration. The dust-accumulation biases described here will be useful for interpreting SWR data from PIRATA moorings in the high-dust region. The biases are also potentially useful for quantifying dust deposition rates in the tropical North Atlantic, which at present are poorly constrained by satellite data and numerical models.

Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud cover is a persistent feature of the subtropical North and South Atlantic. It is well known that Sc cloud cover increases with decreasing temperatures of the underlying sea surface and that an increase in cloud cover will cool the surface temperatures via increasing the local albedo, otherwise known as the Sc feedback. In this study observations are used to quantify the magnitude and spatial structure of the Sc feedback in the tropical–extratropical Atlantic Ocean and investigate the role of the Sc feedback in shaping the evolution of coupled modes of variability there. The authors show that in the Atlantic the Sc feedback increases the time scales of Newtonian cooling by 40% and in an idealized linear model of the tropical Atlantic the dominant mode of coupled variability (the Atlantic meridional mode or dipole mode) would experience no transient growth without the influence of the Sc feedback on the surface temperature damping time scales. This study also investigates Atlantic Sc clouds and the Sc feedback in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models. The authors find that most models have negative biases in the mean state of Sc cloud cover and do not reproduce the observed spatial structure of Atlantic Sc clouds. This study also shows that while the majority of models exhibit some agreement with observations in the meridional structure of the Sc feedback, the vast majority of models underestimate the dependence of Sc cloud cover on the underlying SST.

[1] Atmospheric deposition is not typically considered in conceptual models of P cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, but in P-limited tropical forests that receive significant inputs of dust, it may play an important role in sustaining ecosystem productivity. We used models and observations to quantify total atmospheric P inputs and the contribution of long-distance dust transport to tropical dry forests in the Yucatan peninsula over a 10 year period. Total atmospheric P input was estimated from atmospheric bulk deposition sampling in the southern Yucatan peninsula in 2007 and 2010–2011, and P input from dust deposition was estimated using two independent methods: zonal dust flux divergence based on MODIS AOD retrievals, and MATCH atmospheric transport modeling. Total atmospheric P input was 265 ± 80 g P ha-1 yr-1, and dust P input was 46 ± 12 g P ha-1 yr-1. There was significant seasonal and interannual variation, with local biomass burning accounting for high P inputs in April and May, and dust transport from June through August. We found that MATCH underestimates P deposition from dust to the Yucatan because of underestimation of dust transport relative to MODIS remote sensing. Dust accounted for 25% of total atmospheric P inputs in the Yucatan, indicating local sources dominate atmospheric inputs. However, dust is still an important source of P for tropical dry forests in the Yucatan since it is a new input of P that occurs during the early growing season of the forest, and is large enough to offset leaching and erosional losses from soils.

Enhancement of solar irradiance (IE) has been observed in many locations under partly cloudy sky conditions. Despite its notoriety, few studies have attempted to systematically examine the underlying mechanism for the event through simulation. As a result, there is no consensus regarding the causes of IE, nor an understanding of the effects of cloud optical depth and/or solar elevation on the event. Using a 2D Monte Carlo radiative transfer model (RTM), we show that IE through a homogenous square cloud is caused by the superposition of a direct irradiance beam with diffuse light scattered through the bottom and out of the edge of a cloud, through Mie and diffusion scattering. Using the RTM, we investigated the effect of optical depth up to 40 and solar zenith angles ranging from 0° to 80° on the IE magnitude and spatial extent. For the overhead zenith case the IE magnitude is maximum between optical depths of 2 and 3, with a value of 1.27 times the clear sky value. IE magnitude increases with increasing solar zenith angle, with the maximum occurring at a higher optical depth. The greatest magnitude overall occurred for a solar zenith angle 80° (our maximum) and optical depth of 20, with a value of 1.46 times the clear sky value. The simulations show that for optically thick clouds and small solar zenith angles forward scattering is the dominate contributor to large IE, but at increased zenith angles outward scattering leads to larger IE’s. Differences between simulated IE maximums and measured values in literature were resolved with a simple two cloud model to show mechanisms behind the production of IE extremes.

Most studies of African dust and North Atlantic climate have been limited to the short time period since the satellite era (1980 onward), precluding the examination of their relationship on longer time scales. Here a new dust dataset with the record extending back to the 1950s is used to show a multidecadal covariability of North Atlantic SST and aerosol, Sahel rainfall, and Atlantic hurricanes. When the North Atlantic Ocean was cold from the late 1960s to the early 1990s, the Sahel received less rainfall and the tropical North Atlantic experienced a high concentration of dust. The opposite was true when the North Atlantic Ocean was warm before the late 1960s and after the early 1990s. This suggests a novel mechanism for North Atlantic SST variability—a positive feedback between North Atlantic SST, African dust, and Sahel rainfall on multidecadal time scales. That is, a warm (cold) North Atlantic Ocean produces a wet (dry) condition in the Sahel and thus leads to low (high) concentration of dust in the tropical North Atlantic, which in turn warms (cools) the North Atlantic Ocean. An implication of this study is that coupled climate models need to be able to simulate this aerosol-related feedback in order to correctly simulate climate variability in the North Atlantic. Additionally, it is found that dust in the tropical North Atlantic varies inversely with the number of Atlantic hurricanes on multidecadal time scales because of the multidecadal variability of both direct and indirect influences of dust on vertical wind shear in the hurricane main development region.

The naive Bayesian methodology has been applied to the challenging problem of cloud detection with NOAA’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). An analysis of collocated NOAA-18/AVHRR and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)/Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations was used to automatically and globally derive the Bayesian classifiers. The resulting algorithm used six Bayesian classifiers computed separately for seven surface types. Relative to CALIPSO, the final results show a probability of correct detection of roughly 90% over water, deserts, and snow-free land; 82% over the Arctic; and below 80% over the Antarctic. This technique is applied within the NOAA Pathfinder Atmosphere’s Extended (PATMOS-x) climate dataset and the Clouds from AVHRR Extended (CLAVR-x) real-time product generation system. Comparisons of the PATMOS-x results with those from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) indicate close agreement with zonal mean differences in cloud amount being less than 5% over most zones. Most areas of difference coincided with regions where the Bayesian cloud mask reported elevated uncertainties. The ability to report uncertainties is a critical component of this approach.

Dust storms are a persistent feature of the tropical North Atlantic and vary over a wide range of temporal scales. While it is well known that mineral aerosols alter the local radiative fluxes, far less is understood about the oceanic response to such forced changes to the radiative budget, particularly on long time scales. This study uses an observation-based climatology of dust surface forcing and an ocean general circulation model to examine the influence of anomalous atmospheric dust cover over the tropical North Atlantic on upper ocean temperature and circulation during 1955–2008. It is found that surface temperature anomalies from the model experiments are forced primarily by local radiation-induced changes to the surface heat budget. The subsurface temperature anomalies are additionally influenced by upper ocean circulation anomalies, which are the response to dust-forced steric changes in dynamic height. The results herein suggest that on decadal time scales dust-forced variability of ocean surface and subsurface temperatures are of a magnitude comparable to observed variability. On longer time scales dust-forced sea surface temperature anomalies vary in phase with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, implying that tropical North Atlantic multidecadal variability is related to changes in dust emissions from West Africa.

Strong vertical wind shear can prevent the formation of tropical cyclones, even when ocean temperatures are otherwise warm enough to brew them up. Amato Evan et al. now show that increased emissions of black carbon, sulphates and other aerosols have altered the atmospheric circulation in the pre-monsoon season over the Arabian Sea, leading to decreased vertical wind shear. As a result, these anthropogenic emissions seem to have caused an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones in the pre-monsoon season. Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones1, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis1,2,3,4. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean5 is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear3,4. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea6,7,8,9. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979–2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall1, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and surface winds vary together in a pattern termed the Atlantic Meridional Mode. Simulations with an ocean general circulation model that is driven by a record of dust radiative forcing suggest that dust emissions over West Africa substantially influence the state of the tropical Atlantic Ocean on interannual to decadal scales.

On average 1–2 tropical cyclones form over the Arabian Sea each year, and few of these storms are intense enough to be classified as very severe or super cyclonic storms. As such, few studies have explicitly identified the seasonal to interannual changes in environmental conditions that are associated with Arabian Sea tropical cyclogenesis. However, over the last 30 yr several intense Arabian storms did form and make landfall, with large impacts, which motivates this new study of the basin. The conclusions of earlier studies are visited by utilizing modern observational and reanalysis data to identify the large-scale features associated with Arabian tropical cyclone variability on seasonal time scales. Then year-to-year changes in environmental conditions that are related to interannual variability in Arabian storms during the pre- and postmonsoon periods are elucidated. The analysis of the relationship between large-scale environmental variables and seasonal storm frequency supports conclusions from work completed more than 40 yr prior. Investigation of the year-to-year changes in premonsoon storm frequency suggests that May (June) storms are associated with an early (late) onset of the southwest monsoon. The findings also demonstrate that November cyclones (the month when the majority of postmonsoon cyclogenesis occurs) primarily form during periods when the Bay of Bengal experiences a broad region of high sea level pressure, implying that November storms form in either the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal but not in both during the same year. Finally, the analysis of changes in a genesis potential index suggests that long-term variability in the potential for a storm to form is dictated by changes in midlevel moisture.

Dust in the Wind The temperature of North Atlantic surface waters has a major effect on climate in a variety of ways, not least because its heat content helps to control hurricane formation and strength. The North Atlantic surface has warmed considerably in recent decades, a trend generally associated with global or regional air temperature increases, or with changes in ocean circulation. Evan et al. (p. 778 , published online 26 March) use nearly 30 years of satellite data to examine another source of ocean temperature variability, the radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols. Low frequency changes in local tropical North Atlantic surface temperatures seem mostly to be caused by variability in mineral and stratospheric aerosol abundances. Thus, to provide more accurate projections of these temperatures, general circulation models will need to account for long-term changes in dust loadings.

A new over–water dust detection algorithm is developed and applied to the 5–channel Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imager onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration series of polar orbiting satellites. The algorithm has been developed to improve the distinction between dust and meteorological clouds for very optically thick dust storms that would have previously been flagged as cloud under the Clouds from AVHRR Extended cloud mask algorithm. The algorithm has been assessed by making daily comparisons with data from the Aerosol Robotic Network and by making a climatological comparison with METEOSAT and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data over a portion of the North Atlantic. The new algorithm improves the separation of clouds and airborne dust. Application of the new product to the 5–channel AVHRR historic data sets can provide information on the global dust signal, especially on an interannual time scale.

Background: In Italy, Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase producing K. pneumoniae (KPC-Kp) strains are highly endemic and KPC producing CC258 is reported as the widely predominating clone. In Palermo, Italy, previous reports have confirmed this pattern. However, recent preliminary findings suggest that an epidemiological change is likely ongoing towards a polyclonal KPC-Kp spread. Here we present the results of molecular typing of 94 carbapenem non susceptible K. pneumoniae isolates detected during 2014 in the three different hospitals in Palermo, Italy. Methods and Results: Ninety-four consecutive, non replicate carbapenem non susceptible isolates were identified in the three largest acute general hospitals in Palermo, Italy, in the six-month period March-August 2014. They were characterized by PCR for β-lactam, aminoglycoside and plasmid mediated fluoroquinolone resistance genetic determinants. The mgrB gene of the colistin resistant isolates was amplified and sequenced. Clonality was assessed by pulsed field gel electrophoresis and multilocus sequence typing. Eight non-CC258 sequence types (STs) were identified accounting for 60% of isolates. In particular, ST307 and ST273 accounted for 29% and 18% of isolates. CC258 isolates were more frequently susceptible to gentamicin and non-CC258 isolates to amikacin. Colistin non susceptibility was found in 42% of isolates. Modifications of mgrB were found in 32 isolates. Conclusions: Concurrent clonal expansion of some STs and lateral transmission of genetic resistance determinants are likely producing a thorough change of the KPC-Kp epidemiology in Palermo, Italy. In our setting mgrB inactivation proved to substantially contribute to colistin resistance. Our findings suggest the need to continuously monitor the KPC-Kp epidemiology and to assess by a nationwide survey the possible shifting towards a polyclonal epidemic.

The value of the TAG-72 (CA 72-4) serum marker in primary diagnosis was investigated in 110 patients with histologically diagnosed ovarian cancer. A reference group consisted of 103 patients with benign pelvic masses. Compared to the well-established CA-125, TAG-72 showed a low sensitivity of 42% in the detection of ovarian cancer. By contrast, when the cut-off level for TAG-72 was set at 6 U/ml, it showed a very high specificity of 99%. When the measurement of TAG-72 was combined to that of CA-125, improvements in both the specificity (as compared to a single CA-125 determination) and the sensitivity (as compared to a single TAG-72 assay) were observed. In such a combined assay, our results suggest that the best predictive value (positive and negative) was obtained if CA-125 is assigned a relatively high cut-off value (65 U/ml) in conjunction with a low cut-off level (3.2 U/ml or 4 U/ml) for TAG-72. In the present study, at threshold values of 65 U/ml respectively, a sensitivity of 86%, a specificity of 83% and a positive and negative predictive value of 85% were obtained. In mucinous carcinomas of the ovary, however, the additional TAG-72 determination did not lead to a better predictive power than did CA-125 measurement alone.

[1] Measurements by the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument exhibit a decreasing trend in global mean effective cloud top height (2000–2011). Here we show that this trend is likely related to an artifact in the data present during the early years of the MISR mission that caused a systematic reduction in the number of retrievals of clouds at lower elevations relative to clouds at higher elevations. After the application of a post-hoc method for removing the bias associated with missing retrievals the MISR effective cloud height anomalies exhibit a positive trend over time.

[1] In 1982 and 1991, two major volcanic eruptions loaded the stratosphere with long-lived sulfate aerosols, altering the global climate by redistributing longwave and shortwave radiation at the surface and throughout the atmosphere, cooling the surface and subsurface waters of the tropical oceans. Theory and observations demonstrate, through direct and indirect mechanisms, a causal relationship between tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and seasonal Atlantic hurricane frequency, duration, and intensity. Therefore, it is plausible that hurricane activity in the seasons immediately following these eruptions is diminished. However, to date, such a theory remains untested. Here I use observations, reanalysis data, and output from a numerical model to suggest that the number, duration, and intensity of hurricanes in the years following the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991) decreased via the aerosol direct effect. Determining the effects of each eruption on seasonal cyclone activity is complicated by simultaneous positive ENSO events; thus further study of the relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones and major volcanic eruptions is warranted.

[1] Recent work has shown a statistical climatological link between African dust outbreaks and North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. However, a definite causal link between year-to-year changes in African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclones has yet to be proven. Here we show that variability in Atlantic dust cover is linked to changes in tropical cyclone activity through the aerosols' surface radiative forcing, which has a net cooling effect on tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures. In this manuscript we describe a new methodology for incorporating more than 25 years of satellite observations of aerosols into a simple model that estimates the aerosol direct effect and its impact on tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean temperatures. The output from our model suggests that African dust outbreaks play a nonnegligible role in the evolution of eastern Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Using the strong relationship between temperatures in the so-called main development region and the seasonal power dissipation index (PDI), we estimate that about one third of the increase in PDI over the last 25 years can be attributed to decreases in dust loadings over the same period. Our results imply that efforts aimed at attributing causality to past variability of, or at predicting future changes in, North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity must consider the important radiative influence of African dust.

million km 2 of cropland (12% of the Earth’s ice-free land surface) and 28.0 (90% confidence range of 23.6–30.0) million km 2 of pasture (22%) in the year 2000.

[1] The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) multi-decadal record of cloudiness exhibits a well-known global decrease in cloud amounts. This downward trend has recently been used to suggest widespread increases in surface solar heating, decreases in planetary albedo, and deficiencies in global climate models. Here we show that trends observed in the ISCCP data are satellite viewing geometry artifacts and are not related to physical changes in the atmosphere. Our results suggest that in its current form, the ISCCP data may not be appropriate for certain long-term global studies, especially those focused on trends.”

[1] It is well known that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity varies strongly over time, and that summertime dust transport over the North Atlantic also varies from year to year, but any connection between tropical cyclone activity and atmospheric dust has been limited to a few case studies. Here we report new results that demonstrate a strong relationship between interannual variations in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and atmospheric dust cover as measured by satellite, for the years 1982–2005. While we cannot conclusively demonstrate a direct causal relationship, there appears to be robust link between tropical cyclone activity and dust transport over the Tropical Atlantic.

A 24-year (1982-2005) winter daytime advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data set has been processed utilizing a new over-water dust detection algorithm. The dust data are for the oceanic regions surrounding West Africa and provide a long-term remotely sensed continuous record of dustiness in the region. These AVHRR dust observations are comparable to dust records produced via the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Meteosat instruments. Strong positive correlations between the wintertime Jones North Atlantic Oscillation index and this dust record are observed across the entire oceanic region, corroborating earlier studies on the relationship between the two. Also consistent with previous investigations, we find more regional positive and negative correlations between dust and the wintertime Nino 3.4 index and summertime Sahelian precipitation, respectively. Also, unique to satellite studies of interannual dust variability over the North Atlantic, we develop a wintertime AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index time series for the Sahel region. A strong relationship is seen between tropical North Atlantic dustiness and this vegetation index, suggesting the possibility that vegetation changes in the Sahel play an important role in variability of downwind dustiness.

Replying to B. Wang, S. Xu & L. Wu , 10.1038/nature11470 (2012) Arabian Sea tropical cyclones have become stronger over the past 30 years owing to a reduction in vertical wind shear (VWS) brought about by radiative forcing from pollution aerosols1. Wang et al.2 argue that the decline in VWS results from a systematic shift in storm genesis date, which may be part of a natural cycle or another consequence of regional pollution. However, their conclusions2, although interesting, are not supported by our analysis and are probably sensitive to biases in the observational record.