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Psychosis is a major mental illness with first onset in young adults. The prognosis is poor in around half of the people affected, and difficult to predict. The few tools available to predict prognosis have major weaknesses which limit their use in clinical practice. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of symptom nonremission in first-episode psychosis. Our development cohort consisted of 1027 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2005 and 2010 from 14 early intervention services across the National Health Service in England. Our validation cohort consisted of 399 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2006 and 2009 from a further 11 English early intervention services. The one-year nonremission rate was 52% and 54% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model for nonremission, which was externally validated. The prediction model showed good discrimination C-statistic of 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) and adequate calibration with intercept alpha of 0.12 (0.02, 0.22) and slope beta of 0.98 (0.85, 1.11). Our model improved the net-benefit by 15% at a risk threshold of 50% compared to the strategy of treating all, equivalent to 15 more detected nonremitted first-episode psychosis individuals per 100 without incorrectly classifying remitted cases. Once prospectively validated, our first episode psychosis prediction model could help identify patients at increased risk of nonremission at initial clinical contact.

Additional file 1.

AimsPsychosis is a major mental illness with first onset in young adults. The prognosis is poor in around half of the people affected, and difficult to predict. The few tools available to predict prognosis have major weaknesses which limit their use in clinical practice. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of symptom non-remission in first-episode psychosis.MethodOur development cohort consisted of 1027 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2005 to 2010 from 14 early intervention services across the National Health Service in England. Our validation cohort consisted of 399 patients with first-episode psychosis recruited between 2006 to 2009 from a further 11 English early intervention services. The one-year non-remission rate was 52% and 54% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model for non-remission, which was externally validated.ResultThe prediction model showed good discrimination (C-statistic of 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) and adequate calibration with intercept alpha of 0.13 (0.03, 0.23) and slope beta of 0.99 (0.87, 1.12). Our model improved the net-benefit by 16% at a risk threshold of 50%, equivalent to 16 more detected non-remitted first-episode psychosis individuals per 100 without incorrectly classifying remitted cases.ConclusionOnce prospectively validated, our first episode psychosis prediction model could help identify patients at increased risk of non-remission at initial clinical contact.

BACKGROUND: The antibiotic minocycline has neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory properties that could prevent or reverse progressive neuropathic changes implicated in recent-onset schizophrenia. In the BeneMin study, we aimed to replicate the benefit of minocycline on negative symptoms reported in previous pilot studies, and to understand the mechanisms involved. METHODS: In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited people with a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder that had begun within the past 5 years with continuing positive symptoms from 12 National Health Service (NHS) trusts. Participants were randomly assigned according to an automated permuted blocks algorithm, stratified by pharmacy, to receive minocycline (200 mg per day for 2 weeks, then 300 mg per day for the remainder of the 12-month study period) or matching placebo, which were added to their continuing treatment. The primary clinical outcome was the negative symptom subscale score of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scales (PANSS) across follow-ups at months 2, 6, 9, and 12. The primary biomarker outcomes were medial prefrontal grey-matter volume, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex activation during a working memory task, and plasma concentration of interleukin 6. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN49141214, and the EU Clinical Trials register (EudraCT) number is 2010-022463-35I. FINDINGS: Between April 16, 2013, and April 30, 2015, we recruited 207 people and randomly assigned them to receive minocycline (n=104) or placebo (n=103). Compared with placebo, the addition of minocycline had no effect on ratings of negative symptoms (treatment effect difference -0·19, 95% CI -1·23 to 0·85; p=0·73). The primary biomarker outcomes did not change over time and were not affected by minocycline. The groups did not differ in the rate of serious adverse events (n=11 in placebo group and n=18 in the minocycline group), which were mostly due to admissions for worsening psychiatric state (n=10 in the placebo group and n=15 in the minocycline group). The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal (n=12 in the placebo group, n=19 in the minocycline group), psychiatric (n=16 in placebo group, n=8 in minocycline group), nervous system (n=8 in the placebo group, n=12 in the minocycline group), and dermatological (n=10 in the placebo group, n=8 in the minocycline group). INTERPRETATION: Minocycline does not benefit negative or other symptoms of schizophrenia over and above adherence to routine clinical care in first-episode psychosis. There was no evidence of a persistent progressive neuropathic or inflammatory process underpinning negative symptoms. Further trials of minocycline in early psychosis are not warranted until there is clear evidence of an inflammatory process, such as microgliosis, against which minocycline has known efficacy. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) programme, an MRC and NIHR partnership.