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BACKGROUND: Childhood cardiovascular risk factors predict subclinical adult cardiovascular disease, but links to clinical events are unclear. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study involving participants in the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium, we evaluated whether childhood risk factors (at the ages of 3 to 19 years) were associated with cardiovascular events in adulthood after a mean follow-up of 35 years. Body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, triglyceride level, and youth smoking were analyzed with the use of i3C-derived age- and sex-specific z scores and with a combined-risk z score that was calculated as the unweighted mean of the five risk z scores. An algebraically comparable adult combined-risk z score (before any cardiovascular event) was analyzed jointly with the childhood risk factors. Study outcomes were fatal cardiovascular events and fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events, and analyses were performed after multiple imputation with the use of proportional-hazards regression. RESULTS: In the analysis of 319 fatal cardiovascular events that occurred among 38,589 participants (49.7% male and 15.0% Black; mean [±SD] age at childhood visits, 11.8±3.1 years), the hazard ratios for a fatal cardiovascular event in adulthood ranged from 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 1.47) per unit increase in the z score for total cholesterol level to 1.61 (95% CI, 1.21 to 2.13) for youth smoking (yes vs. no). The hazard ratio for a fatal cardiovascular event with respect to the combined-risk z score was 2.71 (95% CI, 2.23 to 3.29) per unit increase. The hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals in the analyses of fatal cardiovascular events were similar to those in the analyses of 779 fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events that occurred among 20,656 participants who could be evaluated for this outcome. In the analysis of 115 fatal cardiovascular events that occurred in a subgroup of 13,401 participants (31.0±5.6 years of age at the adult measurement) who had data on adult risk factors, the adjusted hazard ratio with respect to the childhood combined-risk z score was 3.54 (95% CI, 2.57 to 4.87) per unit increase, and the mutually adjusted hazard ratio with respect to the change in the combined-risk z score from childhood to adulthood was 2.88 (95% CI, 2.06 to 4.05) per unit increase. The results were similar in the analysis of 524 fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort study, childhood risk factors and the change in the combined-risk z score between childhood and adulthood were associated with cardiovascular events in midlife. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.)

Background/Objectives: The evidence for diet as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) is inconclusive. We examined the associations between fish consumption and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD), a common precursor to MS. Methods: The 2003–2006 Ausimmune Study was a case-control study examining environmental risk factors for FCD, with participants recruited from four regions of Australia and matched on age, sex, and study region. Dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. We used conditional logistic regression models to test associations between fish consumption (total, tinned, grilled, and fried) and risk of FCD (249 cases and 438 controls), adjusting for history of infectious mononucleosis, smoking, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, socio-economic status, omega-3 supplement use, dietary under-reporting, and total energy intake. Results: Higher total fish consumption (per 30 g/day, equivalent to two serves/week) was associated with an 18% reduced risk of FCD (AOR 0.82; 95% CI 0.70, 0.97). While we found no statistically significant associations between grilled and fried fish consumption and risk of FCD, higher tinned fish consumption (per 30 g/day) was associated with a 41% reduced risk of FCD (AOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.39, 0.89). Conclusions: Tinned fish is predominantly oily, whereas grilled and fried fish are likely to be a combination of oily and white types. Oily fish is high in vitamin D and very long chain polyunsaturated omega-3 fatty acids, both of which may be beneficial in relation to MS.

Background Physical inactivity is associated with an increased risk of major chronic diseases, however uncertainty exists about which chronic diseases, themselves, might contribute to physical inactivity. The objective of this study was to compare the physical activity of those with chronic diseases to healthy individuals using an objective measure of physical activity. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of data from 96 706 participants aged 40 years or older from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study (2006 – 2010). Diagnoses were identified through ICD 9 and 10 coding within hospital admission records and cancer registry linked to UK Biobank participants. We extracted summary physical activity information from participants who wore a wrist-worn triaxial accelerometer for seven days. Statistical analyses included computation of adjusted geometric means and means using general linear models. Results Participants with chronic disease undertook 9% or 61 minutes (95% confidence interval [CI]: 57.8-64.8) less moderate activity and 11% or three minutes (95% CI: 2.7-3.3) less vigorous activity per week than individuals without chronic disease. Participants in every chronic disease subgroup took less physical activity than those without chronic disease. Sixty-seven diagnoses within these subgroups were associated with lower moderate activity. Conclusions The cross-sectional association of physical activity with chronic disease is broad. Given the substantial health benefits of being physically active, clinicians and policymakers should be aware that their patients with any chronic disease are at greater health risk from other diseases than anticipated because of their physical inactivity.

The “delayed infection hypothesis” states that a paucity of infections in early childhood may lead to higher risks of childhood leukemia (CL), especially acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Using prospectively collected data from six population‐based birth cohorts we studied the association between birth order (a proxy for pathogen exposure) and CL. We explored whether other birth or parental characteristics modify this association. With 2.2 × 106 person‐years of follow‐up, 185 CL and 136 ALL cases were ascertained. In Cox proportional hazards models, increasing birth order (continuous) was inversely associated with CL and ALL; hazard ratios (HR) = 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.77–0.99) and 0.85: (0.73–0.99), respectively. Being later‐born was associated with similarly reduced hazards of CL and ALL compared to being first‐born; HRs = 0.78: 95% CI: 0.58–1.05 and 0.73: 0.52–1.03, respectively. Successive birth orders were associated with decreased CL and ALL risks (P for trend 0.047 and 0.055, respectively). Multivariable adjustment somewhat attenuated the associations. We found statistically significant and borderline interactions between birth weight (p = 0.024) and paternal age (p = 0.067), respectively, in associations between being later‐born and CL, with the lowest risk observed for children born at

Background: There is contradictory evidence for a role of dietary fat in risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). Objectives: To examine the association between usual fat intake (total, saturated, monounsaturated (MUFA), polyunsaturated (PUFA), omega-3 and omega-6) and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (FCD). Methods: Multi-centre incident case-control study in four regions of Australia during 2003–2006. Cases were aged 18–59 years and had a FCD; controls were matched to a case on age, sex and location. Dietary data were collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Results: In 267 cases and 517 controls with dietary data, higher intake (per g/day) of omega-3 PUFA (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=0.61 (95% CI 0.40–0.93)), and particularly that derived from fish (AOR=0.54 (95% CI 0.31–0.93)) rather than from plants (AOR=0.75 (95% CI 0.39–1.43)) was associated with a decreased risk of FCD. Total fat intake and intake of other types of fat were not associated with FCD risk. Conclusions: There was a significant decrease in FCD risk with higher intake of omega-3 PUFA, particularly that originating from fish. There was no evidence to indicate that the intake of other types of dietary fat or fat quantity in the previous 12 months was associated with an altered risk of FCD.

The finding by Twig et al. that a person’s BMI at 17 years of age is positively associated with the risk of cardiovascular death strengthens the evidence that risk factors in early life are related to the development of cardiovascular disease in adults. However, persons who are 17 years of age are more similar to young adults than to children. Thus, key questions remain unanswered relating to the earliest ages in childhood at which an increased risk of cardiovascular disease might be present and at which the risk factors for cardiovascular disease, either in association with or independent of obesity, are arbiters of identifiable cardiovascular disease in adults.

OBJECTIVE: Melanoma has been shown in numerous studies to be associated with sun exposure, and with host phenotypic factors of genetic origin. In this study we use information from a large series of incident cases of melanoma from an international population-based study to examine the patterns of incidence of melanoma in the first-degree relatives of these cases. METHODS: A total of 2508 incident cases of melanoma provided information on basic demographic data and pigmentary characteristics, in addition to detailed information on family history of melanoma. These data were used to examine the incidence rates ratios of melanoma in the relatives of cases in relation to population rates, and also with respect to phenotypic characteristics of the probands that have been shown to be associated with melanoma: mole counts, hair color, eye color, and skin sensitivity to the sun. RESULTS: The incidence rates reflect the underlying patterns of incidence in the source populations, with generally higher rates in the Australian sample, low rates in Italy, and intermediate rates in the USA and Canada. Also, rates are higher in men than in women, except at very young ages. Phenotypic characteristics of the probands were only weakly associated with the observed rates in the relatives although there is a strong inverse association with age at diagnosis. Cumulative risk of melanoma rises to 6.9% (6.1%) at age 80 in male (female) first-degree relatives of cases, and to 10.8% (9.5%) in relatives of cases diagnosed before age 50. CONCLUSIONS: Relatives of cases diagnosed with melanoma are at considerable lifetime risk of the disease, especially if the case is diagnosed at a young age

We explore a multiple view, or overview and detail, method for visualising a high-dimensional portfolio holdings data set with attributes that change over time. The method employs techniques from multidimensional scaling and graph visualisation to find a two-dimensional mapping for high-dimensional data. In both the overview and detail views, time is mapped to the third dimension providing a two and a half-dimensional view of changes in the data. We demonstrate the utility of the paradigm with a prototype system for visualisation of movements within a large set of UK fund managers' stock portfolios

Several studies have suggested that regular consumption of alcoholic beverages is associated with hypertension. Recent studies, however, have implied tht whilst moderate or high ingestion of alcohol may be detrimental, a threshold exists for alcohol consumption below which alcohol may even exert a beneficial effect. As part of a larger study of a male, service population (average age 23 years) undergoing an initial training course of ten weeks duration, we measured both blood pressure and alcohol consumption in 350 men at entry and/or exit from the course. Alcohol intake was assessed using a supervised, self-administered dietary questionnaire which included two pre-tested measures of alcohol consumption. High alcohol consumption in these young men was not related to elevated systolic or diastolic blood pressure; neither was the recently reported lowering of blood pressure in low alcohol consumers compared to non-drinkers, apparent in this young population. The lack of relationship between alcohol consumption and blood pressure in this predominantly young group suggests that the relationship, if there is one, between these two factors only becomes clinically obvious either with longer exposure to alcohol, or in an older age group in whom the mechanism of control of blood pressure may already be somewhat compromised by other age-related physiological changes which are not readily measurable.

Between June and November 1983, the "Quit. For Life" media campaign was conducted in Sydney to reduce the prevalence of smoking. Surveys on a cross-sectional sample of the Sydney population were conducted before and after the campaign, and similar measures were undertaken in the rest of Australia for comparison. The sample sizes for both the Sydney and control areas comprised more than 4000 subjects. In addition, a cohort of 949 residents of Sydney and Melbourne were followed for changes in the prevalence of smoking during the year of the campaign. The cross-sectional survey results for 1984 and 1983 demonstrated decreases in the prevalence of smoking of approximately 1% for both men and women in Sydney compared with the rest of Australia. In the cohort study there was a 3.4% decrease in smoking prevalence in Sydney compared with a 0.8% increase in Melbourne. The pooled estimate of the difference in smoking prevalence attributable to the campaign was 2.8% (95% confidence interval, 0.5%-5.1%).

A validation study was carried out on self-reported smoking for 1177 people in Sydney and Melbourne in 1983. Because of its long half life and the fact that smoking is its only source in body fluids, saliva cotinine was chosen as the validation measure. Cotinine levels above 250 nmol/l were used to classify people as smokers. The sensitivity of self-reported smoking was 92.6% and the specificity was 93.4%. There was some evidence that people in the process of changing their smoking status might be slow in updating their self-classification. The smoking prevalence estimate based on cotinine levels was found to be 1.7% lower than that for self-reported smoking status. The small proportion of false negatives and false positives suggests that commercially collected data banks can be valid sources of prevalence data. Correlation between cotinine level and reported cigarette consumption was not affected by sample volume, and was similar to that achieved for carbon monoxide and thiocyanate at a low 0.34. Regression analysis using self-reported cigarette consumption filter/non-filter cigarettes, and time since last cigarette as predictors, explained 13.6% of the variance in cotinine level.

OBJECTIVE--To compare the thermal environment of infants who died of the sudden infant death syndrome with that of age matched control infants. DESIGN--Case-control study. Infants who died were matched with two controls, one for age and one for age and birth weight. Thermal measurements were conducted at the death scene for cases and at the scene of last sleep for control infants, who were visited unexpectedly within four weeks of the index infant's death on a day of similar climatic conditions. A follow up questionnaire was administered to parents of cases and controls. SETTING--The geographical area served by the professional Tasmanian state ambulance service, which includes 94% of the Tasmanian population. SUBJECTS--41 infants died of the sudden infant death syndrome at home; thermal observations at death scene were available for 28 (68%), parental questionnaire data were available for 40 (96%). 38 controls matched for age and 41 matched for age and birth weight. RESULTS--Cases had more excess thermal insulation for their given room temperature (2.3 togs) than matched controls (0.6 togs) (p = 0.009). For every excess thermal insulation unit (tog) the relative risk of the sudden infant death syndrome was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.52). The average thermal bedding value calculated from parental recall was similar to that observed by attendant ambulance officers (mean difference = 0.4 tog, p = 0.39). Cases were more likely to have been found prone (odds ratio 4.58; 1.48 to 14.11). Prone sleeping position was not a confounder or effect modifier of the relation between excess thermal insulation and the syndrome. CONCLUSIONS--Overheating and the prone sleeping position are independently associated with an increased risk of the sudden infant death syndrome. Further work on infant thermal balance and sudden infant death is required and guidelines for appropriate infant thermal care need to be developed.

BACKGROUND: Excess adiposity and adiposity-related inflammation are known risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adults; however, little is known regarding the determinants of adiposity-related inflammation at birth. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and newborn adiposity and inflammation. METHODS: Paired maternal (28-week gestation) and infant (umbilical cord) blood samples were collected from a population-derived birth cohort (Barwon Infant Study, n = 1074). Data on maternal comorbidities and infant birth anthropomorphic measures were compiled, and infant aortic intima-media thickness was measured by trans-abdominal ultrasound. In a selected subgroup of term infants (n = 161), matched maternal and cord lipids, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and maternal soluble CD14 were measured. Analysis was completed by using pairwise correlation and linear regression. Because of their non-normal distribution, pathology blood measures were log transformed prior to analysis. RESULTS: Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was positively associated with increased birth weight (mean difference 17.8 g per kg m(-2) , 95% CI 6.6 to 28.9; p = 0.002), newborn mean skin-fold thickness (mean difference 0.1 mm per kg m(-2) , 95% CI 0.0 to 0.1; p

In mice, the maternal microbiome influences fetal immune development and postnatal allergic outcomes. Westernized populations have high rates of allergic disease and low rates of gastrointestinal carriage of Prevotella, a commensal bacterial genus that produces short chain fatty acids and endotoxins, each of which may promote the development of fetal immune tolerance. In this study, we use a prebirth cohort (n = 1064 mothers) to conduct a nested case-cohort study comparing 58 mothers of babies with clinically proven food IgE mediated food allergy with 258 randomly selected mothers. Analysis of the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene in fecal samples shows maternal carriage of Prevotella copri during pregnancy strongly predicts the absence of food allergy in the offspring. This association was confirmed using targeted qPCR and was independent of infant carriage of P. copri. Larger household size, which is a well-established protective factor for allergic disease, strongly predicts maternal carriage of P. copri., Incidence of food allergy in westernized populations is associated with low abundance of Prevotella. Here, the authors analyse the microbiome of a mother-infant prebirth cohort and find that maternal carriage, but not infant carriage, of P. copri during pregnancy predicts the absence of food allergy in the offspring.

Increasing evidence links epigenetic variation to anthropometric and metabolic measures. Leptin signalling regulates appetite and energy expenditure, and in pregnancy is important for nutrient supply to the foetus. Maternal metabolic health and foetal growth are linked to infant blood leptin gene (LEP) methylation, which has been cross-sectionally associated with adolescent obesity. Despite this, few studies have explored the relationship between infant LEP methylation and childhood anthropometry, or the impact of genetic variation on these relationships. Using a prospective birth cohort, we investigated whether blood LEP promoter methylation at birth and 12 months predicts weight and adiposity at 4-years. Locus-specific methylation data was analysed by partial correlation tests and multivariable linear regression. There was weak evidence of an association of birth LEP methylation with anthropometry measures at 4 years. Methylation at a specific site (cg19594666) at 12 months was inversely associated with 4-year weight (r = -0.11, p = 0.02) and body-mass index (BMI) (r = -0.13, p = 0.007), which persisted following adjustment for weight at birth and at 12 months. Neither association was influenced by genotype. We report the first evidence of an association between LEP methylation in infancy and childhood weight. Replication in additional cohorts is required to determine if this relationship persists.

Background Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolic profiling quantifies a large number of metabolites. From adolescence, specific metabolites are influenced by age, sex and body mass index; data on early-life metabolic profiles are limited. We investigated associations between sex, birth weight, weight and adiposity with NMR metabolic profile at age 12 months. Methods The plasma NMR metabolic profile was quantified in infants (n = 485) from the Barwon Infant Study. Associations between 74 metabolites and sex, birth weight z-score and 12-month measures (weight z-score, skinfold thickness, weight-for-length z-score) were examined using linear regression models. Results Several cholesterol and fatty acid measures were higher (0.2–0.3 SD) in girls than in boys; we observed modest sex-specific associations of birth weight z-scores and 12-month sum of skinfold thicknesses with metabolites. The pattern of associations between weight z-score and weight-for-length z-score with metabolites at 12 months was more pronounced in girls, particularly for fatty acid ratios. Conclusions We identified sex differences in the infant metabolic profile. Sex-specific patterns observed differ from those reported in older children and adults. We also identified modest cross-sectional associations between anthropometric and adiposity measures and metabolites, some of which were sex specific.

Background Methylation of the hypoxia-inducible factor 3α gene (HIF3A) has been linked to pregnancy exposures, infant adiposity and later BMI. Genetic variation influences HIF3A methylation levels and may modify these relationships. However, data in very early life are limited, particularly in association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We investigated the relationship between maternal and gestational factors, infant anthropometry, genetic variation and HIF3A DNA methylation in the Barwon Infant Study, a population-based birth cohort. Methylation of two previously studied regions of HIF3A were tested in the cord blood mononuclear cells of 938 infants. Results No compelling evidence was found of an association between birth weight, adiposity or maternal gestational diabetes with methylation at the most widely studied HIF3A region. Male sex (− 4.3%, p

ObjectiveTo investigate whether lipid-related or body mass index (BMI)–related common genetic polymorphisms modulate the associations between serum lipid levels, BMI and disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS).MethodsThe association between disability progression (annualised Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) change over 5 years, ΔEDSS) and lipid-related or BMI-related genetic polymorphisms was evaluated in a longitudinal cohort (n=184), diagnosed with MS. We constructed a cumulative genetic risk score (CGRS) of associated polymorphisms (pResultsFive lipid polymorphisms (rs2013208, rs9488822, rs17173637, rs10401969 and rs2277862) and one BMI polymorphism (rs2033529) were nominally associated with ΔEDSS. The constructed lipid CGRS showed a significant, dose-dependent association with ΔEDSS (ptrend=1.4×10−6), such that participants having ≥6 risk alleles progressed 0.38 EDSS points per year faster compared with those having ≤3. This CGRS model explained 16% of the variance in ΔEDSS. We also found significant interactions between the CGRS and lipid levels in modulating ΔEDSS, including high-density lipoprotein (HDL; pinteraction=0.005) and total cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC:HDL; pinteraction=0.030). The combined model (combination of CGRS and the lipid parameter) explained 26% of the disability variance for HDL and 27% for TC:HDL.InterpretationIn this prospective cohort study, both lipid levels and lipid-related polymorphisms individually and jointly were associated with significantly increased disability progression in MS. These results indicate that these polymorphisms and tagged genes might be potential points of intervention to moderate disability progression.

Background: Transition probabilities are the engine within many health economics decision models. However, the probabilities of progression of disability due to multiple sclerosis (MS) have not previously been estimated in Australia. Objectives: To estimate annual probabilities of changing disability levels in Australians with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). Methods: Combining data from Ausimmune/Ausimmune Longitudinal (2003–2011) and Tasmanian MS Longitudinal (2002–2005) studies ( n = 330), annual transition probabilities were obtained between no/mild (Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) levels 0–3.5), moderate (EDSS 4–6.0) and severe (EDSS 6.5–9.5) disability. Results: From no/mild disability, 6.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.7–8.4) and 0.1% (0.0–0.2) progressed to moderate and severe disability annually, respectively. From moderate disability, 6.9% (1.0–11.4) improved (to no/mild state) and 2.6% (1.1–4.5) worsened. From severe disability, 0.0% improved to moderate and no/mild disability. Male sex, age at onset, longer disease duration, not using immunotherapies greater than 3 months and a history of relapse were related to higher probabilities of worsening. Conclusion: We have estimated probabilities of changing disability levels in Australians with RRMS. Probabilities differed between various subgroups, but due to small sample sizes, results should be interpreted with caution. Our findings will be helpful in predicting long-term disease outcomes and in health economic evaluations of MS.

Background: The evidence associating diet and risk of multiple sclerosis is inconclusive. Objective: We investigated associations between dietary patterns and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination, a common precursor to multiple sclerosis. Methods: We used data from the 2003–2006 Ausimmune Study, a case–control study examining environmental risk factors for a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination, with participants matched on age, sex and study region. Using data from a food frequency questionnaire, dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis. Conditional logistic regression models ( n = 698, 252 cases, 446 controls) were adjusted for history of infectious mononucleosis, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, smoking, race, education, body mass index and dietary misreporting. Results: We identified two major dietary patterns – healthy (high in poultry, fish, eggs, vegetables, legumes) and Western (high in meat, full-fat dairy; low in wholegrains, nuts, fresh fruit, low-fat dairy), explaining 9.3% and 7.5% of variability in diet, respectively. A one-standard deviation increase in the healthy pattern score was associated with a 25% reduced risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (adjusted odds ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval 0.60, 0.94; p = 0.011). There was no statistically significant association between the Western dietary pattern and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination. Conclusion: Following healthy eating guidelines may be beneficial for those at high risk of multiple sclerosis.

Despite extensive studies focusing on the changes in expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) in multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to healthy controls, few studies have evaluated the association of genetic variants of miRNAs with MS clinical course. We investigated whether a functional polymorphism in the MS associated miR-146a gene predicted clinical course (hazard of conversion to MS and of relapse, and annualized change in disability), using a longitudinal cohort study of persons with a first demyelinating event followed up to their 5-year review. We found the genotype (GC+CC) of rs2910164 predicted relapse compared with the GG genotype (HR=2.09 (95% CI 1.42, 3.06), p=0.0001), as well as a near-significant (p=0.07) association with MS conversion risk. Moreover, we found a significant additive interaction between rs2910164 and baseline anti-EBNA-1 IgG titers predicting risk of conversion to MS (relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] 2.39, p=0.00002) and of relapse (RERI 1.20, p=0.006). Supporting these results, similar results were seen for the other EBV-correlated variables: anti-EBNA-2 IgG titers and past history of infectious mononucleosis. There was no association of rs2910164 genotype for disability progression. Our findings provide evidence for miR-146a and EBV infection in modulating MS clinical course.

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