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Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin ekonomik, finansal ve politik risk oranları ile büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Çalışmada 2000:01– 2020:06 döneminde söz konusu risk oranları ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi, Hatemi-J tarafından geliştirilen Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ve zamanla değişen simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular şu şekildedir: (i) Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testine göre; finansal riskten büyümeye, ekonomik riskten finansal riske ve ekonomik riskten politik riske doğru nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. (ii) Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testine göre finansal riskten büyümeye doğru nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto asimetrik nedensellik testine göre; finansal riskteki pozitif şok büyümede pozitif şoka, finansal riskteki negatif şok büyümede negatif şoka ve politik riskteki negatif şok ise büyümede pozitif şoka yol açmaktadır. (iii) Zamanla değişen simetrik nedensellik testine göre nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu dönemler; ekonomik riskten büyümeye doğru, finansal riskten büyümeye doğru ve politik riskten büyümeye doğru tespit edilmiştir. Zamanla değişen asimetrik nedensellik testine göre nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu dönemler; ekonomik riskteki negatif şokun büyümedeki pozitif şoka ekonomik riskteki pozitif şokun büyümedeki negatif şoka; finansal riskteki negatif şokun büyümedeki pozitif şoka, finansal riskteki pozitif şokun büyümedeki negatif şoka etkilerini göstermektedir. Ancak söz konusu dönemde sadece politik riskteki pozitif şokun büyümede negatif şoka neden olduğu dönem görülmektedir., This study aims to examine the causality relationship between Turkey’s economic, financial and political risk ratios and growth. Toda-Yamamoto causality, Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality, and time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were used to examine the relationship between the risk ratios and growth between 2000- 2020. The findings show that (i) The Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows a causal relationship between financial risk and growth, economic risk and financial risk, and economic risk and political risk. (ii) The Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality test revealed a causal relationship between financial risk and growth. The Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto, asymmetric causality test, showed that a positive shock in financial risk causes a positive shock in growth, a negative shock in financial risk causes a negative shock in growth, and a negative shock in political risk causes a positive shock in growth. (iii) The time-varying relationship symmetric causality tests allowed for detecting causality between economic risk and growth, financial risk and growth, and political risk and growth. The time-varying relationship asymmetric causality tests revealed that a negative shock in economic risk caused a positive shock in growth; a positive shock in economic risk caused a negative shock in growth; a negative shock in financial risk caused a positive shock in growth and demonstrated the effects of the positive shock in financial risk as a negative shock in growth. However, a negative shock in growth was only observed when there was a positive shock in political risk.

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of the length of entrepreneurship on the perception of the most important business risks in Slovakia and the Visegrad Group of Countries (V4 countries). The empirical research was conducted in 2019-2020. It was focused on assessing the state of enterprise risk management (ERM) application. The research file contained 422 online questionnaires completed by owners and managers of enterprises (OMEs). The results of this case study were compared with the results of similar studies performed in the V4 countries in 2017-2018. In total, 1,781 OMEs participated in the surveys mentioned. The following statistical methods were used to assess the data: ANOVA, Bartlett’s test, Agostini test, good fit test, and Grubbs test. The overall results of the empirical research highlight the significance and importance of the assessment of business risks in the V4 countries. The results in Slovakia in 2019-2020 and the research results in the V4 countries in 2017-2018 show that OMEs still consider market and economic risks to be most important in their business. Market and economic risks are related to sources that exert the most negative influence on enterprise success. The results are valuable for entrepreneurs, enterprise managers and institutions that provide comprehensive entrepreneurship support in the V4 countries. The overall results are significant at the regional, national, and international levels of the V4 countries and have the ability to strengthen the competitiveness of entrepreneurs within the EU common market.

This study provides fresh evidence regarding the dynamic association that is believed to exist in relation to green finance (GF), economic growth (GDP), political risk (PR), economic risk (ER), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It therefore uses the dataset pertaining to China from most recent time-series – covering the period spanning from the years of 1990 to 2020, by employing the Morlet Wavelet Analysis technique. The empirical findings of the wavelet power spectrum reveal that green finance GF and ER are vulnerable in the short- and long-run, and the short-run, respectively. At the same time, no vulnerability has been observed in the GDP, PR, and CO2 emissions. In addition to this, the wavelet coherence also reveals the bidirectional causal association that exists between GF-CO2 and ER-CO2, but only in the short run. It must also be taken into consideration that the causal influence of CO2 is deemed to be greater than the GF and ER, respectively. Besides this, a bidirectional causal nexus also exists between the GDP and CO2 emissions, only in the long run. Furthermore, the association between the economic growths follows both the phase and antiphase associations. Moreover, the study also reveals that there is no significant causal link between the PR and CO2 emissions. The results emphasize that the significance of green finance investment will tend to increase with strict policy implications, stabilization or minimization of economic risk and political risk. The same will also take place while promoting environmentally friendly production via economic growth, so as to reduce CO2 emission in the region taken into account.

To tackle the issue of climate change and environmental degradation debates regarding carbon neutrality is on the rise. Regional Comprehensive Economic Cooperation (RCEP), the leading trading union, covers nearly third of global economy, world population, is responsible for thirty percent of global trade and global gross domestic product. The existent study tests the impact of financial, economic, political, and composite risk on consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions (CCO2) in selected RCEP economies during the period of 1990 to 2020. The empirical analysis consists of cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, cross-sectional augmented panel unit root test, Westerlund cointegration, second-generation cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lags model (CS-ARDL), and panel causality test. Further, we explore the role of imports, renewable energy supply, exports, and gross domestic product per-capita on CCO2. The empirical results suggest that the less political risk help to mitigate while the lower financial, economic, and composite risk increase CCO2 emissions in selected RCEP economies. Moreover, exports and renewable energy supply show mitigating effect, whereas imports show upsurge in CCO2. Additionally, a bidirectional causality exists between exports and CCO2, imports and CCO2, GDP per-capita and CCO2, political risk and CCO2, and renewable energy and CCO2 emissions, while a one-way causality from financial risk, composite risk, and economic risk to CCO2. Renewable energy supplies along with the improvement in sub-components of political risk, for instance, corruption, government stability, would help to effectively tackle the issue of CCO2 emissions.

The article notes that economic risk is one of the most multifaceted phenomena, the nature and components of which are not subject to a simple and unambiguous interpretation. But it should be noted that the classification of risks of this type, taking into account the many factors containing its signs is a rather voluminous problem due to the lack of a generally accepted systemic classification. The author argues that the above classification of methods for managing economic risks makes it possible to determine the characteristics used in their classification in the management process as a whole.

Topicality. An important condition for ensuring the development of the maritime complex companies is the formation of an effective strategy. The dynamism and uncertainty of the environment in which companies operate, necessitate taking into account the level of their economic security when making decisions about the choice of development strategy.Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to develop guidelines for choosing a strategy for the development of a maritime company based on an assessment of its economic security.Research results. The system approach to management of the company’s economic safety is considered. The content of strategic planning for the maritime company development and its correlation with the level of economic security are determined. Qualitative parameters of the corporate resources use in combination with the organizational and functional structure and relationships of structural units, as well as some quantitative guidelines for ensuring the functional components and the level of economic security of companies in general. To identify four strategic areas of the company’s economic security management in the field of maritime management is proposed. The mechanism of the maritime complex companies’ economic security management, its elements, the scheme of their action and interaction are determined to implement the chosen strategy. The priorities for choosing the strategy of the company’s development depending on the level of economic security are specified. The use of a scenario approach for economic security planning based on monitoring the risks and threats of the current activities of the maritime companies is proposed.Conclusion. The proposed approach allows characterizing the conditions of maritime management by the level of safety and on the basis of this information to determine the priority areas of strategic planning of the company’s economic security. Under the conditions of efficient use of corporate resources at company, favourable conditions will be created for achieving business goals, timely detection and maximum mitigation of various dangers and threats in conditions of competition and economic risk, and thus – will ensure the functioning and further development of the maritime complex.

This article investigates how unemployment risk within households affects voting for the radical right. The authors contribute to recent advances in the literature that have highlighted the role of economic threat for understanding the support of radical-right parties. In contrast to existing work, the authors do not treat voters as atomistic individuals; they instead investigate households as a crucial site of preference formation. Combining largescale labor market data with comparative survey data, they confirm the expectations of their theoretical framework by demonstrating that the effect of occupational unemployment risk on radical-right support is strongly conditioned by household-risk constellations. Voting for the radical right is a function not only of a voter’s own risk, but also of his or her partner’s risk. The article provides additional evidence on the extent to which these effects are gendered and on the mechanisms that link household risk and party choice. The results imply that much of the existing literature on individual risk exposure potentially underestimates its effect on political behavior due to the neglect of multiplier effects within households.

This study investigates the impacts of country-specific risk, namely, political and economic risks, global economic policy uncertainty, and also macroeconomic factors on the price of Turkish touris...

The study examined prevalence and economic implications of abattoir pregnancy/ fetal wastage in small ruminants. Survey was conducted on ewes (n=201) and does (n=183) slaughtered at Addis Ababa municipality abattoirs, during December 2017 and January 2018. Female reproductive tracts were examined for presence and types of pregnancy and/ or gross disorders. Net economic lossand net economic risk due to abattoir fetal wastage were calculated for each species after accounting for naturally expected abortion and neonatal losses, and domestic net market values. One hundred forty-two (37 %) animals were pregnant 131 (34.1 %) with single and 11 (2.9 %) with twin fetus. A total of 153 fetuses were recovered giving a fetal wastage prevalence of 39.8 %. More animals in the second trimester (25.5 %) were slaughtered than those in first (8.3 %) or third (3.1 %) trimesters (p < 0.05). Prevalence of pregnancy was 32.8 % in does and 40.8 % in ewes (p = 0.104). Prevalence of fetal wastage was 37.2 % (68 fetuses) and 42.3 % (85 fetuses) in goats and sheep, respectively (p > 0.05). Abattoir pregnancy prevalence showed variations relative to slaughter month in goat (p < 0.01) and body condition in sheep (p < 0.05). Observed abattoir pregnancy prevalence levels incurred net economic loss of 313.55 USD in sheep (per 201 ewes) and 315.4 USD in goats (per 108 doe). This translated to net economic risk of 1.7 USD per mature doe or ewe slaughtered for meat. Nine (4.9 %) does and 1 (0.5 %) ewe showed gross reproductive tract disorders (p < 0.05). Frequent female slaughter without efficient ante-mortem pregnancy screening predisposed significant proportion of small ruminants to pregnancy/ fetal wastage. Deeper investigations are needed to understand reasons behind pregnant small ruminant slaughter and to mitigate its negative impacts onsustainability of animal production. Evaluating and capacity building on alternative small ruminant pregnancy diagnosis methods requires due attention. Key words: Doe; Pregnancy; Reproductive disorders; Ewe; Fetal wastage; Economic implication; Abattoir

Risk is an important factor in the business environment. Decisions have a risk associated with them, and the importance of this risk depends on the environment. Investing in the construction sector is not the same as investing in the banking sector. The possibility of loss requires one to know the maximum risk of sector each type and the implications for this on making the investment. In accordance with this, the objective of this report is to apply the economic and financial risks, which are more important from the business point of view in the construction sector from 2003 to 2013, which allows us to assess whether the risks in the years of growth in this sector are excessive. The data used to carry out this study come from the Bank for the Accounts of Companies Harmonized (BACH) and the methodology will be the formulas for economic and financial risk. The main results of this report are that the risk could advance the future problems of the construction sector while the report also enables an improvement in the risk management in different sectors. Furthermore, this concept ensures that the companies or the sectors could advance measures to optimize the management risk of these areas, especially the economic and financial areas. However, this methodology should be applied in other sectors during the same crisis period in Spain, since this would increase the performance of future studies.

Extending Kaniel et al. (2012) and many others, we present the first empirical evidence that indicates the high volume return premium is linked to economic fundamentals. The volume premium has strong predictive power for future industrial production growth and other macroeconomic indicators with or without controls for common equity pricing factors and business cycle variables. However, only a small portion of the volume premium can be attributed to its comovement with equity return factors and economic risk factors. Mispricing-based factor models also fail to adequately explain the return anomaly.

PurposeEconomic risk plays a vital role in firm's cash holdings. We aim to determine the impact of economic risk on the firm's cash holdings.Design/methodology/approachThe data is collected from the DataStream from 2002 to 2018, which covers 552 listed firms in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. We apply a two-step dynamic panel estimation to analyze the results.FindingsWe use the variance of inflation and variance of interest rate as proxies of economic risk. Our results show that variance of inflation has a significant and negative effect while the variance of interest rate has a significant and positive effect on firms' cash holdings in selected countries. Furthermore, we find economic risk negatively affects the firm's cash holdings in the country-wise analysis. Firms should maintain a reasonable amount of cash reserves to handle uncertain situations.Originality/valueThis study may provide insights to financial decision-makers of a firm for better cash management according the economic conditions of the country.

This paper examines the effect of country risk on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Egypt during the years 2005 - 2015. We employ multiple regression analysis, to test the relationship among the selected variables that drive foreign direct investment flows to Egypt. FDI has always been an interesting topic for research; nevertheless, to the authors’ knowledge, the impact of country risk on FDI has not been examined before in Egypt. Since FDI is a notable source of foreign currency income to the Egyptian economy, it becomes inevitable to study the variables that affect the flow of FDI in relevance to the economic outlook in general and country risk in specific. The effect of country risk on FDI could significantly affect economic measurements such as economic growth and required rate of return. Our results show that economic risk measurements have the most significant impact on foreign direct investments inflows to Egypt, while financial risk measurements have no significance. Moreover, political risk is associated with foreign direct investment. JEL classification: F21; F23; F3; F65; G32

This article reports the results of a comparative analysis of biodiesel production from two major summer oilseed crops, accounting the economic risk of production. The objective is to provide the n...

Platform work can be understood as a particularly acute instance of the individualization of economic risk. Responding to the broader trends of labour commodification and decline of the standard em...

Tunisia is currently facing political, economic and financial problems which have an impact on the flow of remittances. This study is the first attempt to give a thorough analysis of a two-way rela...

PurposeThe article develops a model to interpret the 2010–2018 financial crisis in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus, and the loan programs from the IL (International Lender; i.e. the European Union, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund).Design/methodology/approachFor each country, an isoelastic utility with constant relative risk aversion is assumed. For the IL a Cobb Douglas utility is assumed with consumption, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to debt ratio, and market stability as inputs, accounting for time discounting. This article applies two methods to assess the empirics. The first method considers the IL's strategy as a whole over the 2010–2018 period. The second method assumes that the IL maximizes its utility in one period to determine its optimal loan, accounting for the empirics in that period, and the debt in the previous period.FindingsFor the first method, when the output elasticity in the IL's Cobb Douglas utility is high favoring consumption, the IL prefers offering a higher loan than its actual loan. Otherwise the IL prefers to offer no loan. The output elasticity at which the IL prefers to offer a loan is lowest for Greece, second lowest for Cyprus, third lowest for Portugal, and highest for Ireland and Spain. A high loan to Greece over a larger range of the output elasticity for Greece's consumption is supported by Greece being prioritized through the loan program. For the second method, the IL prefers to offer no loan to Greece which is too burdened with debt. Thus, the first method seems preferable, considering the entire duration of the crisis holistically.Originality/valueThe article offers a novel perspective of how to assess debt crises, enabling the IL to weigh various factors such as consumption, GDP, loan offered, and each country's debt to credit markets.

The article is devoted to an actual topic on the economic and environmental risk of activities related to high risk objects. Such topic has not been practically investigated in domestic economic and legal science. The scientific article contains the key words related to the economic and ecological risk of the mentioned activity, substantiates its scientific and practical relevance in the context of legal support in the conditions of sustainable socio-economic development, as well as guaranteeing the ecological and overall safety of activities related to the high-risk objects. The author notes the research of scientists who have developed problems of economic, commercial, industrial, economic risk, in particular its legal aspects: Prof. A.G. Bobkova, prof. O.V. Bigniak, prof. O.M. Vinnik, prof. I.F. Koval, prof. V.L. Musiyaka, prof. V.V. Reznikova, prof. N.O. Saniakhmetova, prof. R.O. Stephanchuk and others. These scientists have revealed character and peculiarities of risks in economic activity. Some of them have also focused attention on the establishment of legislative restrictions on environmental safety of production, compliance with safety requirements for life and health of people. The author also points out the scientific works on legal environmental risk, highlights peculiarities of its legal nature. The article thoroughly and comprehensively presents the main results of the study, analyzes laws and other normative acts of Ukraine, the United Nations Conventions and documents of the European Union. This allowed the author to conclude on the presence of economic and environmental risk in terms of its adverse effects on the environment, life and health of the population. Based on the analysis of theoretical sources, evaluation of the domestic legislation, the author proposes the definition of economic and environmental risk, as a formal legal basis for the emergence of obligations of economic entities to eliminate the risk in the event of this risk, eliminate its consequences. He also proposes to introduce appropriate amendments to the Article 16 of the Constitution of Ukraine and the Economic Code of Ukraine, regarding the establishment of additional security guarantees for the security of economic activity related to high-risk objects. REFERENCES 1. Zadyhajlo D. Problemy kodifikacii predprinimatel’skogo zakonodatel'stva. Predprinimatel’stvo, hozjajstvo i pravo. 1998. No. 5. P. 3-6 [in Russian].2. Popondopulo V.F. Pravovoj rezhim predprinimatel’stva. Saint Petersburg: Izd-vo S.-Petersburg. un-ta, 1994. 208 p. [in Russian].3. Musijaka V.L. Pravovye osnovy predprinimatel’skoj dejatel’nosti. Har’kov: Biznes-Inform, 1995. 91 p. [in Russian].4. 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This paper examines the relationship between economic, political, financial and geopolitical country risks and stock prices for the case of Turkey during the period 1999: 01-2014: 12. The causal relationship between risk premiums and BIST 100 index is analyzed through Toda-Yamamoto and Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) causality tests. According to Toda-Yamamoto causality test’s results, while there is bidirectional causality between economic risk premium and BIST 100 index and between political risk premium and BIST 100 Index, there is no causality from financial risk premium and geopolitical risk premium to BIST 100 Index. According to the result of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap causality test, while there is bi-directional causality between economic risk premium and BIST 100 index and between political risk premium and BIST 100 Index, there is no causality between financial risk premium and BIST 100 index and between geopolitical risk premium and BIST 100 Index. The results of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap causality test confirm the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Causality tests performed in the study indicate the existence of bidirectional causality relationship among economic risk premium based on macroeconomic variables and political risk premium as an indicator of the country’s political environment, and stock prices.

The purpose of this article is to examine risk perception among some specific stakeholders, including international intergovernmental bodies, private western-based corporates, and among European public opinion surveys We also address concerns of the Russian Federation and the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative Perception of risks is key to policy decision-making and probably more important than risk assessment We offer a medico-scientific perspective based on factual evidence drawn mostly from official websites and publications Our first goal is to understand if sufficient attention is given to human health, disease prevention and control relative to economic and financial considerations Our second goal is to promote a translational and interprofessional approach to global risk prioritization by cooperation between the medico-scientific community and the financial-economic world To this end, we examine the benefits for the practice of economic risk assessment of engaging biomedical expertise focused on global environmental health Maintenance, expansion and sustainability of the human enterprise require health and wellness Осуществлен анализ представлений, связанных с рисками для здоровья человека, у определенных заинтересованных сторон, в том числе у международных межправительственных организаций, частных западных корпораций, которые отражаются в опросах общественного мнения в европейских странах Также проанализировано восприятие рисков здоровью населения в Российской Федерации, в том числе в связи с китайской инициативой «Один пояс, один путь» Представления о рисках и, следовательно, об иерархии рисков являются ключевыми факторами принятия решений при разработке политики и, возможно, даже более важны, чем оценка риска Авторы смотрят на перспективы анализа рисков как ученые - с позиций науки и медицины, с учетом существующих сведений, взятых большей частью с официальных веб-сайтов и публикаций Первая цель исследования - понять, достаточное ли внимание уделяется вопросам здоровья, предотвращения и контроля заболеваний по сравнению с экономическими и финансовыми вопросами Вторая цель - стимулировать применение поступательного и межпрофессионального подхода к анализу глобальных рисков через взаимодействие медико-научного сообщества и финансово-экономического мира С этих позиций изучены практические преимущества экономической оценки внешнесредовых рисков для здоровья населения с привлечением экспертов в области биомедицины Поддержание, расширение и устойчивое развитие всех аспектов человеческой жизнедеятельности подразумевает здоровье и благосостояние

The article considers the manifestations of the phenomenon of economic risk in the socioeconomic ecosystems of industrial enterprises, examines and differentiates the pragmatic and cultural aspects of the concept of "economic risk management". In terms of methodology, the study is based on the operational theory of risk management, and also uses tools to describe the organizational culture of risk management. Pragmatic and cultural differences in the characteristics of economic risk are identified at the level of stable forms of management activity with the involvement of the main provisions of the operational theory of risk management. The phenomenon of risk is considered in the ontological space as an artificial category of activity of industrial enterprises and other economic agents that form a socio-economic ecosystem. This phenomenon is studied as a specific form of social communication associated with the desire to assess the uncertain future in the present time, mainly from the point of view of analysis and management of the level of economic risk in the enterprise.

For decades, domestic risks belonged to the category of issues that are difficult to understand because information is fragmented or incomplete. However, paradoxically it has been suggested by many researchers that domestic risks involve complex combinations of structural and institutional weakness, bad governance, and regional contagion wrapped in a paradigm of high levels of trade, capital, and information flows, resulting in economic risk. This study employ first- and second-generation panel-based estimators—Westerlund cointegration, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and dynamic common correlated effects mean group (D-CCEMG)—to explore both short-run and long-run nexus between domestic risks and economic risks in Northern African countries from 1997Q2 to 2018Q4. To our knowledge, no study has applied these econometric techniques to investigate interlink-ages among domestic risks, economic risks, and as well as including dummy variable of Arab Spring in Northern African countries. Our empirical findings reveal that (a) financial and political stabilities positively affect economic stability, and (b) Arab Spring negatively affected economic stability. Our analysis confirms that domestic risks involve institutional weakness and bad governance region in regional contagion. Given this new insight on economic risk, policymakers should develop a strong financial system that promotes economic growth.

Purpose The housing market in South Africa has the potential to drive economic growth and attract foreign investment, but it can be affected by various risk factors. This paper aims to conduct an empirical analysis of the effect of country risk components on the housing market in South Africa. Design/methodology/approach Linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were used to evaluate the effects of the economic, financial and political risk factors of country risk on the prices of different segments of houses based on 276 monthly time-series data from January1995 to December 2015. Findings First, the results established that the three housing indices were more sensitive to political risk in the long run. Second, short run results showed that the three housing indices were largely influenced by their own preceding adjustments in the short run albeit minimal influences from political risk. Third, large housing segments indicated a higher magnitude of the country risk effect in South Africa. Originality/value This paper concluded that the response of housing prices to changes in the country risk components differed across the three segments of the housing market in South Africa. Consequently, this study presented the first comparison of the reactions of different housing segments to different components country risk.

The state and development of agriculture determines the level of food security of the country. The problems associated with the agricultural industry in Russia are systemic. In the context of multifactorial development of the agricultural sector, it is important to constantly analyze the conditions that affect the occurrence of risks in the economic activity of the industry. For a comprehensive accounting of risk factors in agriculture, it is necessary to rely on the industry classification of risks. In a modern economy, risks are present in any economic activity. In the decision-making process in risk management issues, it is necessary to understand the characteristic features of the occurrence of risk factors, to analyze and systematize the most significant risks of the agricultural industry.

This study aims to shed light on the co-movement of sovereign credit risk and economic risk in Turkey using the Toda–Yamamoto causality, Gradual Shift causality, and Wavelet Coherence tests. The study answers the following questions, which, to the best of our knowledge, have not been investigated in the literature: (i) Is there any causal linkage between sovereign credit risk and economic risk?; and (ii) If yes, why? Our findings reveal that (i) economic risk caused sovereign credit risk in 1997 and 2002; and (ii) between 2001 and 2012, sovereign credit risk caused economic risk at different scales. The Toda–Yamamoto causality and Gradual Shift causality tests confirm that, in Turkey, changes in sovereign credit risk significantly lead to changes in economic risk, indicating the importance of sovereign credit risk for predicting economic risk.

From April 2016 to June 2017, the Health + Housing Project employed four community health workers who engaged residents of two subsidized housing buildings in New York City to address individuals’ broadly defined health needs, including social and economic risk factors. Following the intervention, we observed significant improvements in residents’ food security, ability to pay rent, and connection to primary care. No immediate change was seen in acute health care use or more narrowly defined health outcomes.

Because of the very high complexity of modern optimization models based on single trees, uncertainties are often disregarded. In this study, we present a modelling approach that allows partial harvesting but is still simple enough to consider risk. Our modelling approach investigates whether the inclusion of timber price uncertainty influences the harvesting schedule. The model considers positive growth response to the density reduction that follows harvesting. Testing the impact of uncertainty, we define the discounted net revenues of each harvest operation as random variables. We compare harvest scheduling both with and without the inclusion of uncertainty. We first model growth response based on a partial-harvest schedule, without integrating uncertainty from timber price fluctuations. The results show that harvesting tree cohorts at different times is financially optimal. We run the same model again, including the risk of timber price fluctuations. The inclusion of risk leads to slightly greater differences in recommended harvest timings. Because of the small difference observed, we conclude that it is unlikely that risk arising from fluctuating timber prices would strongly affect the results for more complex forest economic models concerning the optimal harvest schedules.

The conditions for solving the problems caused by the appearance in practice of unknown objects that generate some interfering effects on the objects under study are considered. The necessity of the introduction of artificial entities to overcome the emerging problems is substantiated. The cases of manifestation of the risk phenomenon, methods of its identification and evaluation of the characteristics of the impact on the real socio-economic processes are considered in detail.

We, the Editors and Publisher of the journal Behaviour & Information Technology, have retracted the following article which was part of the Special Issue on Behaviour Monitoring and Management of C...

This study fills a gap in the relevant literature by exploring the time-frequency domain causal relationship between financial risk and economic risk for five South American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela, over the period from 1984Q1 – 2018Q4. To the best of our knowledge, the causal relationship between finance and economics has not been comprehensively explored for the case of South America within the framework of risk. Therefore, the empirical findings of this study are likely to shed light on and open a new debate regarding the nexus between financial and economic activities. Based on our aims, the time domain Toda-Yamamoto causality test is performed as a robustness check, and the wavelet coherence approach is implemented to explore the joint time-frequency domain causal relationship between financial and economic risk. The empirical findings reveal that: (1) there is a feedback causality between financial risk and economic risk in Venezuela; (2) there is a one-way causality that runs from economic risk to financial risk in Colombia and Peru, and; (3) financial risk significantly leads to changes in economic risk in Argentina and Brazil. The empirical results are crucial for policy decision making and can be used by both researchers and macro-economic policymakers to take suitable actions, if necessary, by implementing more appropriate or alternative economic and financial decisions.

Embedded in the Malaysian oil and gas sectors’ experience, this study assesses the impact of external risk factors, which include political, economic, social, and environmental risk factors...

Water is essential for economic development. For a country with limited water resources, how to balance trade-offs between economic development, water resource availability and quality is key. Policy decisions should thus wed economic planning to water resources and pollution management; this concept is called “waternomics”. In developing Asia, there is a powerful case for countries to curate a waternomic roadmap, especially since the locational nature of water and climate risks points to a significant clustering of economic risk exposure in vulnerable regions—specifically, major river basins and coastal economic hubs.

This paper addresses the use of a new nuclear power plant performance risk analysis tool. The new tool is called Versatile Economic Risk Tool (VERT). VERT couples Idaho National Laboratory’s SAPHIRE and RAVEN software packages. SAPHIRE is traditionally used for performing probabilistic risk assessment and RAVEN is a multi-purpose uncertainty quantification, regression analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, data analysis and model optimization software framework. Using fault tree models, degradation models, reliability data, and economic information, VERT can assess relative system performance risks as a function of time. Risk can be quantified in megawatt hours (MWh) which can be converted to dollars. To demonstrate the value of VERT, generic pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor fault tree models were developed along with time dependent reliability data to investigate the plant systems, structures, and components that impacted performance from the year 1980 to 2020. The results confirm the overall notion that US nuclear power plant industry operational performance has been improving since 1980. More importantly, the results identify equipment that negatively or positively impact performance. Thus, using VERT, individual plant operators can target systems, structures, and components that merit greater attention from a performance perspective.

In order to increase the efficiency of socio-economic systems managing, R. Kachalov proposed introducing the fictitious concept of the “risk phenomenon”. This article shows that, this proposal, firstly, contradicts the scientific principle of Occam’s razor, and secondly, it is a methodological error. In addition, the interpretation by R. Kachalov of the relationship between the concepts of “uncertainty” and “economic risk” is debatable.

This year, the most attractive current politics and economy news is the measures taken by governments to deal with the risk caused by the epidemic. It is widely believed that the global economy has suffered seriously from the virus. To deal with that, developed countries such as the US, Canada, Japan, the EU, the developing countries, like China, Brazil has already announced some measures and policy. As a big developing country, China is worthy to be analyzed, compared with different period of itself and other countries.

The essence of the concept of risk and the classification of social risks of households are investigated. The socio-demographic characteristics of Ukrainian households are analyzed. The main indicators, profiles, signs of poverty and directions of economic deprivation are analyzed. The most influential factors that increase risk are identified. They include large families, unemployment, level of education. The impact of COVID-19 on the growth of social risks is analyzed. The poverty is expected to increase in all types of Ukrainian households (especially in households with children) and increase in unemployment. Keywords: risk, household, poverty, economic deprivation, unemployment, population.

Целью работы являлось исследование взаимосвязи экологических и экономических показателей регионов в динамике с помощью декаплинг-анализа. Проведенный анализ рейтингов инвестиционной привлекательности регионов, принципов социально-экологической оценки инвестиционных проектов показал, что в современной экономике учет воздействия экономической деятельности на окружающую среду стал основополагающим принципом хозяйственной деятельности. Результаты анализа экологических рисков принимаются во внимание инвесторами, общественностью, учитываются при оценке эффективности деятельности органов власти. Авторская позиция состоит в том, что при оценке рисков целесообразно учитывать не только абсолютные значения выборов загрязняющих веществ и их динамику, но и сравнивать их с динамикой изменения экономических показателей, характеризующих рост экономики. В работе авторами предложена методика оценки эколого-экономического риска регионов на основе углубленного декаплинг-анализа, которая позволяет выделить шесть качественно разных вариантов эколого-экономического состояния регионов и на этой основе присвоить рейтинг эколого-экономического риска региона. Методика была апробирована на примере 80 российских регионов. Разработанные методы и модели позволят оценивать усилия руководителей регионов и организаций, принимаемые для устойчивого развития территорий и компаний, и принимать во внимание результаты оценки при инвестиционных и финансовых решениях.

Winter rye is the second bread and the most valuable forage crop. Rye is cultivated primarily in Russia, Germany, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Scandinavia, China, Canada and the United States. The acreage allocated for the cultivation of rye in the world is declining (from 15.4 million ha in 1986 to 4.4 million ha in 2016). In all areas of cultivation rye has earned a reputation as the most adapted to the climatic conditions of the insurance culture of low economic risk. For the expansion of crops of rye and an increase in the gross yield of grain, it is necessary to create new varieties of rye. Currently, 94 gene banks in the world store 22,200 samples of winter and spring rye. Gene banks are located around the world; the largest of them – the N.I. Vavilov All-Russian Institute of Plant Genetic Resources (3260 samples) – is located in Russia. The collection of the world’s genetic resources of rye, concentrated in storage and propagated in the fields, contains varieties, donors, populations and lines of cultural, weed-field, wild, winter and spring rye. The collection is being constantly updated and replenished with new samples, the system of reliable storage and maintenance of the high viability of seeds is being improved, the sources of traits with value for breeding are being identified and studied, and donors are being created. Scientific, breeding and educational institutions are being supplied with source material. An electronic passport documentation system of the collection is being developed and integrated into the international system of genetic banks. In this paper, a brief analysis and characterization of the VIR rye collection is given. The history of the pre-selection study and the stages of the creation and use of donors for various problems of selection are reviewed, a passport database on winter and spring rye has been created.

Unfortunately, the aging of the population and the increase in the incidence of Chronic No-communicable Diseases (NCDs) are challenges that affect the whole of Brazil. And these besides to adversely affect the economically active population and mainly affect the health of the worker. Aware of this reality, the students of the fourth period of the discipline of Health Education, of the Nursing course and a student master of the course of Integral Attention to Health, in the year 2017, of UNICRUZ, carried out the extension project "Women's Health Project", Aiming to present activities that encouraged the interest of the participants in health care and prevent chronic non-communicable diseases. For the methodological execution of the project, it was used the Retrospective Survey, with a report and discussion of the activities carried out. The project took place in the dependencies of the Profession Project "Profissão Catador", in the city of Cruz Alta, RS, with the participation of approximately 12 women, aged 30-60 years. It is believed that Health Education along with the University and Community connection can be a positive strategy to reach those who do not have access to important information on prevention and health.

Indicators of social and economic risk moderate outcomes of couple-formats of relationship education (RE); yet, less is known about moderators of individual-oriented formats or risk associated with...

Asset allocation with a derivative security is studied in a hidden, Markovian regime-switching, economy using filtering theory and the martingale approach. A generalized delta-hedged ratio and a generalized elasticity of an option are introduced to accommodate the presence of the information state process and the derivative security. Malliavin calculus is applied to derive a solution for a general utility function which includes an exponential utility, a power utility, and a logarithmic utility. A compact solution is obtained for a logarithmic utility. Some economic implications of the solutions are discussed.

Around the time of childbirth, low-income families are at particular economic risk for reasons including mothers’ relatively high levels of separation from work. Lower wage jobs typically c...

We describe a risk protocol that combines the rigor of economic studies of risk with the ecological validity of tasks from psychology. Despite a wealth of experimental contributions on risk preferences, stemming from a variety of elicitation tasks, the external validity of standard measures of risk is questionable. In this study we focus on a risk task – the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) – which is highly successful in predicting health-related risk behaviors such as alcohol use, drug use, smoking, unprotected sex, driving without a seatbelt, and stealing. The BART is not commonly used by economic scholars because of concerns that participants may not adequately comprehend uncertainty associated with the task and because of the resulting difficulty in relating participants’ choices to standard risk models. To answer these concerns and build on associations with real world risk, we designed a modified BART, which we will refer to as the Balloon Economic Risk Protocol (BERP). In this protocol, participants observe the distribution of pop points prior to the task to create a more consistent knowledge base. We then use a belief elicitation technique to produce a user-generated prior distribution of balloon pops. Using these measures, we compare participants’ behavior to the expected-value optimum to provide a link to standard models of risk. In accordance with past economic literature, we found that participants’ BERP-generated risk preferences revealed mild risk aversion on average, and correlated with a self-report questionnaire on drinking, drug use, and smoking behavior.