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Whether Venus was ever habitable is a key question driving missions to Earth’s sister planet in the next decade. Venus today has a dry, O 2 -poor atmosphere, but recent work has proposed that early Venus may have had liquid water [J. Krissansen-Totton, J. J. Fortney, F. Nimmo, Planet. Sci. J. 2, 216 (2021)] and reflective clouds that could have sustained habitable conditions until 0.7 Ga [J. Yang, G. Boué, D. C. Fabrycky, D. S. Abbot, Astrophys. J. 787, L2 (2014), M. J. Way, A. D. Del Genio, J. Geophys. Res.: Planets 125, e2019JE006276 (2020)]. Water present at the end of a habitable era must since have been lost by photodissociation and H escape, causing buildup of atmospheric oxygen [F. Tian, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 432, 126–132 (2015)]. We present a time-dependent model of Venus’s atmospheric composition starting from the end of a hypothetical habitable era with surface liquid water. We find that O 2 loss to space, oxidation of reduced atmospheric species, oxidation of lava, and oxidation of a surface magma layer formed in a runaway greenhouse climate can remove O 2 from up to 500 m global equivalent layer (GEL) (30% of an Earth ocean), unless melts on Venus had a much lower oxygen fugacity than Mid Ocean Ridge melts on Earth, which increases the upper limit twofold. Volcanism is required to supply oxidizable fresh basalt and reduced gases to the atmosphere but also contributes 40 Ar. Consistency with Venus’s modern atmospheric composition occurs in less than 0.4% of runs, in a narrow parameter range where the reducing power introduced by O 2 loss processes can balance O 2 introduced by H escape. Our models favor hypothetical habitable eras ending before 3 Ga and very reduced melt oxygen fugacities three log units below the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer ( f O 2 < FMQ−3), among other constraints.

Habitable rocky planets around M dwarfs that have H2-dominated atmospheres, if they exist, would permit characterizing habitable exoplanets with detailed spectroscopy using JWST, owing to their extended atmospheres and small stars. However, the H2-dominated atmospheres that are consistent with habitable conditions cannot be too massive, and a moderate-size H2-dominated atmosphere will lose mass to irradiation-driven atmospheric escape on rocky planets around M dwarfs. We evaluate volcanic outgassing and serpentinization as two potential ways to supply H2 and form a steady-state H2-dominated atmosphere. For rocky planets of 1-7 Earth mass and early, mid, and late M dwarfs, the expected volcanic outgassing rates from a reduced mantle fall short of the escape rates by >~1 order of magnitude, and a generous upper limit of the serpentinization rate is still less than the escape rate by a factor of a few. Special mechanisms that may sustain the steady-state H2-dominated atmosphere include direct interaction between liquid water and mantle, heat-pipe volcanism from a reduced mantle, and hydrodynamic escape slowed down by efficient upper-atmospheric cooling. It is thus unlikely to find moderate-size, H2-dominated atmospheres on rocky planets of M dwarfs that would support habitable environments., Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We estimate the potential ultimate cost of fossil-fuel carbon to a long-lived human population over a one million–year time scale. We assume that this hypothetical population is technologically stationary and agriculturally based, and estimate climate impacts as fractional decreases in economic activity, potentially amplified by a human population response to a diminished human carrying capacity. Monetary costs are converted to units of present-day dollars by multiplying the future damage fractions by the present-day global world production, and integrated through time with no loss due from time-preference discounting. Ultimate costs of C range from $10k to $750k per ton for various assumptions about the magnitude and longevity of economic impacts, with a best-estimate value of about $100k per ton of C. Most of the uncertainty arises from the economic parameters of the model and, among the geophysical parameters, from the climate sensitivity. We argue that the ultimate cost of carbon is a first approximation of our potential culpability to future generations for our fossil energy use, expressed in units that are relevant to us.

Early Mars had rivers, but the cause of Mars’s wet-to-dry transition remains unknown. Past climate on Mars can be probed using the spatial distribution of climate-sensitive landforms. We analyzed global databases of water-worked landforms and identified changes in the spatial distribution of rivers over time. These changes are simply explained by comparison to a simplified meltwater model driven by an ensemble of global climate model simulations, as the result of ≳10 K global cooling, from global average surface temperature T ¯ ≥ 268 K to T ¯ ~ 258 K, due to a weaker greenhouse effect. In other words, river-forming climates on early Mars were warm and wet first, and cold and wet later. Unexpectedly, analysis of the greenhouse effect within our ensemble of global climate model simulations suggests that this shift was primarily driven by waning non-CO 2 radiative forcing, and not changes in CO 2 radiative forcing.

The climate of a planet can be strongly affected by its eccentricity due to variations in the stellar flux. There are two limits for the dependence of the inner habitable zone boundary (IHZ) on eccentricity: (1) the mean-stellar flux approximation ($S_{\mbox{IHZ}} \propto \sqrt{1-e^2}$), in which the temperature is approximately constant throughout the orbit, and (2) the maximum-stellar flux approximation ($S_{\mbox{IHZ}} \propto (1-e)^2$), in which the temperature adjusts instantaneously to the stellar flux. Which limit is appropriate is determined by the dimensionless parameter $\Pi = \frac{C}{BP}$, where $C$ is the heat capacity of the planet, $P$ is the orbital period, and $B=\frac{\partial \Omega}{\partial T_s}$, where $\Omega$ is the outgoing longwave radiation and $T_s$ is the surface temperature. We use the Buckingham $\Pi$ theorem to derive an analytical function for the IHZ in terms of eccentricity and $\Pi$. We then build a time-dependent energy balance model to resolve the surface temperature evolution and constrain our analytical result. We find that $\Pi$ must be greater than about $\sim 1$ for the mean-stellar flux approximation to be nearly exact and less than about $\sim 0.01$ for the maximum-stellar flux approximation to be nearly exact. In addition to assuming a constant heat capacity, we also consider the effective heat capacity including latent heat (evaporation and precipitation). We find that for planets with an Earth-like ocean, the IHZ should follow the mean-stellar flux limit for all eccentricities. This work will aid in the prioritization of potentially habitable exoplanets with non-zero eccentricity for follow-up characterization., Comment: Accepted to ApJL

The spectroscopic characterization of terrestrial exoplanets will be made possible for the first time with JWST. One challenge to characterizing such planets is that it is not known a priori whether they possess optically thick atmospheres or even any atmospheres altogether. But this challenge also presents an opportunity - the potential to detect the surface of an extrasolar world. This study explores the feasibility of characterizing the atmosphere and surface of a terrestrial exoplanet with JWST, taking LHS 3844b as a test case because it is the highest signal-to-noise rocky thermal emission target among planets that are cool enough to have non-molten surfaces. We model the planetary emission, including the spectral signal of both atmosphere and surface, and we explore all scenarios that are consistent with the existing Spitzer 4.5 $\mu$m measurement of LHS 3844b from Kreidberg et al. (2019). In summary, we find a range of plausible surfaces and atmospheres that are within 3 $\sigma$ of the observation - less reflective metal-rich, iron oxidized and basaltic compositions are allowed, and atmospheres are restricted to a maximum thickness of 1 bar, if near-infrared absorbers at $\gtrsim$ 100 ppm are included. We further make predictions on the observability of surfaces and atmospheres, perform a Bayesian retrieval analysis on simulated JWST data and find that a small number, ~3, of eclipse observations should suffice to differentiate between surface and atmospheric features. However, the surface signal may make it harder to place precise constraints on the abundance of atmospheric species and may even falsely induce a weak H$_2$O detection., Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures

Mars' wet-to-dry transition is a major environmental catastrophe, yet the spatial pattern, tempo, and cause of drying are poorly constrained. We built a globally-distributed database of constraints on Mars late-stage paleolake size relative to catchment area (aridity index), and found evidence for climate zonation as Mars was drying out. Aridity increased over time in southern midlatitude highlands, where lakes became proportionally as small as in modern Nevada. Meanwhile, intermittently wetter climates persisted in equatorial and northern-midlatitude lowlands. This is consistent with a change in Mars' greenhouse effect that left highlands too cold for liquid water except during a brief melt season, or alternatively with a fall in Mars' groundwater table. The data are consistent with a switch of unknown cause in the dependence of aridity index on elevation, from high-and-wet early on, to high-and-dry later. These results sharpen our view of Mars' climate as surface conditions became increasingly stressing for life., Comment: Accepted by Geophysical Research Letters

With the increasing number of planets discovered by TESS, the atmospheric characterization of small exoplanets is accelerating. L98-59 is a M-dwarf hosting a multi-planet system, and so far, four small planets have been confirmed. The innermost planet b is $\sim15\%$ smaller and $\sim60\%$ lighter than Earth, and should thus have a predominantly rocky composition. The Hubble Space Telescope observed five primary transits of L98-59b in $1.1-1.7\ \mu$m, and here we report the data analysis and the resulting transmission spectrum of the planet. We measure the transit depths for each of the five transits and, by combination, we obtain a transmission spectrum with an overall precision of $\sim20$ ppm in for each of the 18 spectrophotometric channels. With this level of precision, the transmission spectrum does not show significant modulation, and is thus consistent with a planet without any atmosphere or a planet having an atmosphere and high-altitude clouds or haze. The scenarios involving an aerosol-free, H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with H$_2$O or CH$_4$ are inconsistent with the data. The transmission spectrum also disfavors, but does not rules out, an H$_2$O-dominated atmosphere without clouds. A spectral retrieval process suggests that an H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with HCN and clouds or haze may be the preferred solution, but this indication is non-conclusive. Future James Webb Space Telescope observations may find out the nature of the planet among the remaining viable scenarios., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

The Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF) is an enigmatic sedimentary unit near the equator of Mars, with an uncertain formation process and absolute age. Due to the heavily wind-eroded surface, it is difficult to determine the absolute model age of the MFF using a one-parameter model based on the crater size-frequency distribution function with existing crater count data. We create a new two-parameter model that estimates both age and a constant erosion rate ($β$) by treating cratering as a random Poisson process. Our study uses new crater count data collected from Context Camera imagery for both the MFF and other young equatorial sedimentary rock. Based on our new model, the Central MFF formed $>$1.5 Gyr ago and had low erosion rates ($$740 nm $^{-1}$). The top of Aeolis Mons (informally known as Mount Sharp) in Gale Crater and Eastern Candor have relatively young ages and low erosion rates. Based on the estimated erosion rates (since fast erosion permits metastable shallow ice), we also identify several sites, including Zephyria Planum, as plausible locations for shallow subsurface equatorial water ice that is detectable by gamma-ray spectroscopy or neutron spectroscopy. In addition to confirming $, 17 pages, 12 figures

The widespread volcanism on the Jovian moon Io is powered by tidal heating, yet we lack a deep understanding of how this distinctive heating process affects the locations, timing, or intensities of Io's eruptions. We show that the quasiperiodic behavior of the volcano Loki Patera in 1987–2018 matches the timescales for the evolution of Io's eccentricity and semimajor axis (~480 and ~460 days). If this orbital forcing is driving Loki Patera's variability, a low‐pass geophysical filter such as poroelastic flow, or a resonant amplification of Io's wobble, could account for the importance of these long‐period orbital variations despite their small amplitudes. The peak volcanic response is predicted to roughly coincide with Io's maximum eccentricity, consistent with the observations. High‐cadence observations over the next several years have the potential to conclusively discriminate between orbital versus geophysical control of Loki Patera's variability.

Despite receiving just 30% of the Earth’s present-day insolation, Mars had water lakes and rivers early in the planet’s history, due to an unknown warming mechanism. A possible explanation for the >10(2)-y-long lake-forming climates is warming by water ice clouds. However, this suggested cloud greenhouse explanation has proved difficult to replicate and has been argued to require unrealistically optically thick clouds at high altitudes. Here, we use a global climate model (GCM) to show that a cloud greenhouse can warm a Mars-like planet to global average annual-mean temperature ([Formula: see text]) ∼265 K, which is warm enough for low-latitude lakes, and stay warm for centuries or longer, but only if the planet has spatially patchy surface water sources. Warm, stable climates involve surface ice (and low clouds) only at locations much colder than the average surface temperature. At locations horizontally distant from these surface cold traps, clouds are found only at high altitudes, which maximizes warming. Radiatively significant clouds persist because ice particles sublimate as they fall, moistening the subcloud layer so that modest updrafts can sustain relatively large amounts of cloud. The resulting climates are arid (area-averaged surface relative humidity ∼25%). In a warm, arid climate, lakes could be fed by groundwater upwelling, or by melting of ice following a cold-to-warm transition. Our results are consistent with the warm and arid climate favored by interpretation of geologic data, and support the cloud greenhouse hypothesis.

Mars Polar Science is an integrated, compelling system that serves as a nearby analogue to numerous other planets, supports human exploration, and habitability. Mars possesses the closest and most easily accessible layered ice deposits outside of Earth, and accessing those layers to read the climate record would be a triumph for planetary science.

The history of rivers on Mars is an important constraint on Martian climate evolution. The timing of relatively young, alluvial fan-forming rivers is especially important, as Mars' Amazonian atmosphere is thought to have been too thin to consistently support surface liquid water. Previous regional studies suggested that alluvial fans formed primarily between the Early Hesperian and the Early Amazonian. In this study, we describe how a combination of a global impact crater database, a global geologic map, a global alluvial fan database, and statistical models can be used to estimate the timing of alluvial fan formation across Mars. Using our global approach and improved statistical modeling, we find that alluvial fan formation likely persisted into the last ~2.5 Gyr, well into the Amazonian period. However, the data we analyzed was insufficient to place constraints on the duration of alluvial fan formation. Going forward, more crater data will enable tighter constraints on the parameters estimated in our models and thus further inform our understanding of Mars' climate evolution., Comment: Accepted by The Planetary Science Journal

Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how surface wetness affects the tropical hydrological cycle. When surface wetness is decreased in an Earth-like general circulation model, the tropics remain wet but transition from a rainy to rain-free regime. The rain-free regime occurs when surface precipitation is suppressed as negative evaporation (surface condensation) balances moisture flux convergence. The regime transition is dominated by near-surface relative humidity changes in contrast to the hypothesis that relative humidity changes are small. We show near-surface relative humidity changes responsible for the regime transition are controlled by re-evaporation of stratiform precipitation near the lifting condensation level. Re-evaporation impacts the near-surface through vertical mixing. Our results reveal a new rain-free tropical hydrological cycle regime that goes beyond the wet/dry paradigm., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted by Geophysical Research Letters

Many of the sedimentary basins of Mars show patterns of faults and off-horizontal layers that, if correctly understood, could serve as a key to basin history. Sediment compaction is a possible cause of these patterns. We quantified the possible role of differential sediment compaction for two Martian sedimentary basins: the sediment fill of Gunjur crater (which shows concentric graben), and the sediment fill of Gale crater (which shows outward-dipping layers). We assume that basement topography for these craters is similar to the present-day topography of complex craters that lack sediment infill. For Gunjur, we find that differential compaction produces maximum strains consistent with the locations of observed graben. For Gale, we were able to approximately reproduce the observed layer orientations measured from orbiter image-based digital terrain models, but only with a >3 km-thick donut-shaped past overburden. It is not immediately obvious what geologic processes could produce this shape.

Chloride-bearing deposits on Mars record high-elevation lakes during the waning stages of Mars' wet era (mid-Noachian to late Hesperian). The water source pathways, seasonality, salinity, depth, lifetime, and paleoclimatic drivers of these widespread lakes are all unknown. Here we combine reaction-transport modeling, orbital spectroscopy, and new volume estimates from high-resolution digital terrain models, in order to constrain the hydrologic boundary conditions for forming the chlorides. Considering a T = 0 degrees C system, we find: (1) individual lakes were >100 m deep and lasted decades or longer; (2) if volcanic degassing was the source of chlorine, then the water-to-rock ratio or the total water volume were probably low, consistent with brief excursions above the melting point and/or arid climate; (3) if the chlorine source was igneous chlorapatite, then Cl-leaching events would require a (cumulative) time of >10 yr at the melting point; (4) Cl masses, divided by catchment area, give column densities 0.1 - 50 kg Cl/m^2, and these column densities bracket the expected chlorapatite-Cl content for a seasonally-warm active layer. Deep groundwater was not required. Taken together, our results are consistent with Mars having a usually cold, horizontally segregated hydrosphere by the time chlorides formed., 46 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

Large alluvial fan deposits on Mars record relatively recent habitable surface conditions ($\lesssim$3.5 Ga, Late Hesperian - Amazonian). We find net sedimentation rate 20 Myr on the total time interval spanned by alluvial-fan aggradation, >10^3-fold longer than previous lower limits. A more realistic approach that corrects for craters fully entombed in the fan deposits raises the lower bound to >(100-300) Myr. Several factors not included in our calculations would further increase the lower bound. The lower bound rules out fan-formation by a brief climate anomaly. Therefore, during the Late Hesperian - Amazonian on Mars, persistent or repeated processes permitted habitable surface conditions.

The climate on early Mars is one of the major unsolved problems in planetary science. It is unclear whether early Mars was warm and wet or cold and icy. Morphological features on Mars such as sinuous ridges could provide critical constraints to address this issue. Here we investigate several sinuous ridges to the east of Tempe Terra, located at the dichotomy boundary of the highland terrain and lowland plains and find these ridges may have recorded persistent fluvial activity on early Mars. Our analysis indicates that these ridges may represent exhumation of the channel belts and overbank deposits formed from meandering rivers over significant geologic time. Layered smectite-bearing minerals are distributed along the flank of the ridges, and could be detrital or authigenic floodplain clays. Our interpretation of the stratigraphic relationships indicates that the layered smectite-bearing materials lie between channel belt deposits, which has rarely been previously reported on Mars and supports the floodplain interpretation. Our results suggest a persistent warm period, perhaps triggered by volcanism, impacts, and/or variations in planetary obliquity, that persisted for a geologically significant interval (tens of thousands of years) during the Noachian period of Mars.

Data suggest that most rocky exoplanets with orbital period $p$ $$10. These atmospheres form during the planets' evolution from sub-Neptunes into rocky exoplanets. H$_2$O that is made by reduction of iron oxides in the silicate magma is highly soluble in the magma, forming a dissolved reservoir that is protected from loss so long as the H$_2$-dominated atmosphere persists. The large size of the dissolved reservoir buffers the H$_2$O atmosphere against loss after the H$_2$ has dispersed. Within our model, a long-lived, water-dominated atmosphere is a common outcome for efficient interaction between a nebula-derived atmosphere (peak atmosphere mass fraction 0.1-0.6 wt%) and oxidized magma ($>$5 wt% FeO), followed by atmospheric loss. This idea predicts that most rocky planets that have orbital periods of 10-100 days and that have radii within 0.1-0.2 $R_{Earth}$ of the lower edge of the radius valley still retain H$_2$O atmospheres. This prediction is imminently testable with JWST and has implications for the interpretation of data for transiting super-Earths., Comment: Astrophysical Journal Letters, in press

Understanding when, where, and how frequently liquid water was stable on Mars since the Late Noachian/Early Hesperian (3.2-3.9 Ga) is important for understanding the evolution of Mars' climate and hydrology. Some relatively young features on Mars require multiple wetting events to form, whereas others are consistent with single wetting events. Small and rare exit breach craters or “pollywogs” are craters between 0.5 and 15 km in diameter with valleys leading away from the lowest point on their rims but no visible inlet valleys. These craters must have been filled with water to the point of overspill to form the observed valleys. The two possible water sources are precipitation and groundwater. In this paper we use measurements from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of 18 pollywog craters (21 outlet valleys) and a fixed channel width 0-D breach erosion model to determine whether pollywog exit breach valleys are consistent with a single crater overspill event, or if their formation requires multiple overspill events. Our model, which we compare to a selection of dam breaching events on Earth, predicts runaway erosion for two pollywog exit breaches. No runaway erosion is observed. We discuss potential explanations for this mismatch between the data and our model. We show that the majority of pollywog craters on Mars are consistent with formation during a single crater overspill event, incorporating a work around for the long-standing problem of unknown grainsize into our approach. Three pollywog craters require either multiple events or sustained water supply to drive erosion. We discuss potential source mechanisms for crater-filling water and conclude that pollywogs either formed in a single erosion event, driven by groundwater discharge, or through many small erosion events, driven by draining of small meltwater lakes formed on crater-filling bodies of ice.

We present a new database of $>$300 layer-orientations from sedimentary mounds on Mars. These layer orientations, together with draped landslides, and draping of rocks over differentially-eroded paleo-domes, indicate that for the stratigraphically-uppermost $\sim$1 km, the mounds formed by the accretion of draping strata in a mound-shape. The layer-orientation data further suggest that layers lower down in the stratigraphy also formed by the accretion of draping strata in a mound-shape. The data are consistent with terrain-influenced wind erosion, but inconsistent with tilting by flexure, differential compaction over basement, or viscoelastic rebound. We use a simple landscape evolution model to show how the erosion and deposition of mound strata can be modulated by shifts in obliquity. The model is driven by multi-Gyr calculations of Mars' chaotic obliquity and a parameterization of terrain-influenced wind erosion that is derived from mesoscale modeling. Our results suggest that mound-spanning unconformities with kilometers of relief emerge as the result of chaotic obliquity shifts. Our results support the interpretation that Mars' rocks record intermittent liquid-water runoff during a $>$10$^8$-yr interval of sedimentary rock emplacement.

Lithium concentration and isotopic fractionation profiles across augite grains from two Martian meteorites – MIL 03346 and NWA 817 – were used to determine their thermal history and implications for their geologic setting. The iron–magnesium zoning and associated magnesium isotopic fractionation of olivine grains from NWA 817 were also measured and provide a separate estimate of the cooling rate. The observed correlation of concentration with isotopic fractionation provides the essential evidence that the zoning of these grains was in fact due to diffusion and thus can be used as a measure of their cooling rate. The diffusion rate of lithium in augite depends on the oxygen fugacity, which has to be taken into account when determining a cooling rate based on the lithium zoning. The Fe–Mg exchange in olivine is much less sensitive to oxygen fugacity, but it is significantly anisotropic and for this reason we determined the direction relative to crystallographic axes of the line along which the Fe–Mg zoning was measured. We found that the cooling rate of NWA 817 determined from the lithium zoning in augite grains and that based on the Fe–Mg zoning of olivines are in good agreement at an oxygen fugacity close to that of quartz–fayalite–magnetite oxygen buffer. The cooling rate of MIL 03346 was found to be resolvably faster than that of NWA 817 – of the order of 1 °C/h for the former and of the order of 0.2 °C/h for the latter. An important observation regarding the history of MIL 03346 and NWA 817 is that the lithium and Fe–Mg zoning are only observed where the augite or olivine is in contact with the mesostasis, which implies that they were already about 80% crystallized at the time diffusion began. The augite and olivine core compositions while very homogeneous are not in equilibrium with each other, which we interpret to imply that prior to the rapid cooling there must have been a protracted period of the order of years above the solidus, during which the much faster Fe–Mg exchange in olivine compared to that in augite allowed the olivine to maintain equilibrium with a changing melt composition while the augite was not significantly affected. We suggest two possible geological settings for the origin and evolution of MIL 03346 and NWA 817: (1) a slow cooling stage in a crystallization front in a crustal magma chamber, followed by eruption of melt plus portions of the crystallization front onto the surface where the final fast cooling took place at the bottom of a lava flow or melt pond, and (2) eruption of a crystal laden melt as a thick long-lived lava flow where the crystals continued to grow as a cumulate and were rapidly cooled when the overlying lava layer was suddenly drained.

Planets with 2 $R_{\oplus}$ < $R$ < 3 $R_{\oplus}$ and orbital period $$10$^3$-km thick outgassed atmospheres have high mean molecular weight. The hypothesis of magma-atmosphere equilibration links observables such as atmosphere H$_2$O/H$_2$ ratio to magma FeO content and planet formation processes. Our model's accuracy is limited by the lack of experiments (lab and/or numerical) that are specific to sub-Neptunes; we advocate for such experiments., Comment: Accepted by ApJ

Ancient solar system processes are recorded by impact crater populations on Mars. We investigated the spatial distribution of Noachian-aged (3.8–4.0 Ga) craters in order to test hypotheses for the shortage of

Most rocky planets in the galaxy orbit a cool host star, and there is large uncertainty among theoretical models whether these planets can retain an atmosphere. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) might be able to settle this question empirically, but most proposals for doing so require large observational effort because they are based on spectroscopy. Here we show that infrared photometry of secondary eclipses could quickly identify "candidate" atmospheres, by searching for rocky planets with atmospheres thick enough that atmospheric heat transport noticeably reduces their dayside thermal emission compared to that of a bare rock. For a planet amenable to atmospheric follow-up, we find that JWST should be able to confidently detect the heat redistribution signal of an O(1) bar atmosphere with one to two eclipses. One to two eclipses is generally much less than the effort needed to infer an atmosphere via transmission or emission spectroscopy. Candidate atmospheres can be further validated via follow-up spectroscopy or phase curves. In addition, because this technique is fast it could enable a first atmospheric survey of rocky exoplanets with JWST. We estimate that the TESS mission will find ~100 planets that are too hot to be habitable but that can be quickly probed via eclipse photometry. Knowing whether hot, rocky planets around M dwarfs have atmospheres is important not only for understanding the evolution of uninhabitable worlds: if atmospheres are common on hot planets, then cooler, potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs are also likely to have atmospheres., Comment: Submitted to ApJ. Also see these three companion papers: 1. Mansfield et al (submitted), "Identifying Atmospheres on Rocky Exoplanets Through Inferred High Albedo", 2. Malik et al (submitted), "Analyzing Atmospheric Temperature Profiles and Spectra of M dwarf Rocky Planets", and 3. Koll (submitted) "A Scaling Theory for Atmospheric Heat Redistribution on Rocky Exoplanets"

The upcoming launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) means that we will soon have the capability to characterize the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets. However, it is still unknown whether such planets orbiting close to M dwarf stars can retain their atmospheres, or whether high-energy irradiation from the star will strip the gaseous envelopes from these objects. We present a new method to detect an atmosphere on a synchronously rotating rocky exoplanet around a K/M dwarf, by using thermal emission during secondary eclipse to infer a high dayside albedo that could only be explained by bright clouds. Based on calculations for plausible surface conditions, we conclude that a high albedo could be unambiguously interpreted as a signal of an atmosphere for planets with substellar temperatures of $T_{sub}=$ 410-1250 K. This range corresponds to equilibrium temperatures of $T_{eq}=$ 300-880 K. We compare the inferred albedos of eight possible planet surface compositions to cloud albedo calculations. We determine that a layer of clouds with optical depths greater than $\tau=0.5$-$7$, would have high enough albedos to be distinguishable from a bare rock surface. This method of detecting an atmosphere on a rocky planet is complementary to existing methods for detecting atmospheres, because it provides a way to detect atmospheres with pressures below 1 bar (e.g. Mars), which are too tenuous to transport significant heat but thick enough to host high-albedo clouds., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. Also see these three companion papers: 1. Koll et al (accepted to ApJ), "Identifying Candidate Atmospheres on Rocky M Dwarf Planets Via Eclipse Photometry", 2. Malik et al (accepted to ApJ), "Analyzing Atmospheric Temperature Profiles and Spectra of M dwarf Rocky Planets", and 3. Koll (accepted to ApJ) "A Scaling Theory for Atmospheric Heat Redistribution on Rocky Exoplanets"

Most of Mars' ancient sedimentary rocks by volume are in wind-eroded sedimentary mounds, but the connections between mound form and wind erosion are unclear. We perform mesoscale simulations of different crater and mound morphologies to understand the formation of sedimentary mounds. As crater depth increases, slope winds produce increased erosion near the base of the crater wall, forming mounds. Peak erosion rates occur when the crater depth is ~2 km. Mound evolution depends on the size of the host crater. In smaller craters mounds preferentially erode at the top, becoming more squat, while in larger craters mounds become steeper-sided. This agrees with observations where smaller craters tend to have proportionally shorter mounds, and larger craters have mounds encircled by moats. If a large-scale sedimentary layer blankets a crater, then as the layer recedes across the crater it will erode more towards the edges of the crater, resulting in a crescent-shaped moat. When a 160 km diameter mound-hosting crater is subject to a prevailing wind, the surface wind stress is stronger on the leeward side than on the windward side. This results in the center of the mound appearing to `march upwind' over time, and forming a `bat-wing' shape, as is observed for Mt. Sharp in Gale crater., Comment: Accepted for publication by JGR Planets, 31 pages, 16 figures

Post-Noachian Martian paleochannels indicate the existence of liquid water on the surface of Mars after about 3.5 Gya (Irwin et al., 2015; Palucis et al., 2016). In order to explore the effects of variations in CO$_{2}$ partial pressure and obliquity on the possibility of surface water, we created a zero-dimensional surface energy balance model. We combine this model with physically consistent orbital histories to track conditions over the last 3.5 Gyr of Martian history. We find that melting is allowed for atmospheric pressures corresponding to exponential loss rates of $dP/dt \propto t^{-3.73}$ or faster, but this rate is within $0.5 \sigma$ of the rate calculated from initial measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, if we assume all the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from atmospheric CO$_{2}$ (Lillis et al., 2017; Tu et al., 2015). Melting at this loss rate matches selected key geologic constraints on the formation of Hesperian river networks, assuming optimal melt conditions during the warmest part of each Mars year (Irwin et al., 2015; Stopar et al., 2006; Kite et al., 2017a,b). The atmospheric pressure has a larger effect on the surface energy than changes in Mars's mean obliquity. These results show that initial measurements of atmosphere loss by MAVEN are consistent with atmospheric loss being the dominant process that switched Mars from a melt-permitting to a melt-absent climate (Jakosky et al., 2017), but non-CO$_{2}$ warming will be required if $, Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted to JGR Planets

Gale Crater, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing site, contains a central mound, named Aeolis Mons (informally Mount Sharp) that preserves 5 km of sedimentary stratigraphy. Formation scenarios include (1) complete filling of Gale Crater followed by partial sediment removal or (2) building of a central deposit with morphology controlled by slope winds and only incomplete sedimentary fill. Here we model temperature-time paths for both scenarios, compare results with analyses provided by MSL Curiosity, and provide scenario-dependent predictions of temperatures of diagenesis along Curiosity's future traverse. The effects of variable sediment thermal conductivity and historical heat flows are also discussed. Modeled erosion and deposition rates are 5–37 µm/yr, consistent with previously published estimates from other Mars locations. The occurrence and spatial patterns of diagenesis depend on sedimentation scenario and surface paleotemperature. For (1) temperatures experienced by sediments decrease monotonically along the traverse and up Mount Sharp stratigraphy, whereas for (2) temperatures increase along the traverse reaching maximum temperatures higher up in Mount Sharp's lower units. If early Mars surface temperatures were similar to modern Mars (mean: −50°C), only select locations under select scenarios permit diagenetic fluids. In contrast, if early Mars surface temperatures averaged 0°C or brines had lowered freezing points, diagenesis is predicted in most locations with temperatures

River deposits are one of the main lines of evidence that tell us that Mars once had a climate different from today, and so changes in river deposits with time tell us something about how Mars climate changed with time. In this study, we focus in on one sedimentary basin – Aeolis Dorsa – which contains an exceptionally high number of exceptionally well-preserved river deposits that appear to have formed over an interval of > 0.5 Myr . We use changes in the river deposits' scale with stratigraphic elevation as a proxy for changes in river paleodischarge. Meander wavelengths tighten upwards and channel widths narrow upwards, and there is some evidence for a return to wide large-wavelength channels higher in the stratigraphy. Meander wavelength and channel width covary with stratigraphic elevation. The factor of 1.5–2 variations in paleochannel dimensions with stratigraphic elevation correspond to ∼2.6-fold variability in bank-forming discharge (using standard wavelength-discharge scalings and width-discharge scalings). Taken together with evidence from a marker bed for discharge variability at ∼ 10 m stratigraphic distances, the variation in the scale of river deposits indicates that bank-forming discharge varied at both 10 m stratigraphic ( 10 2 – 10 6 yr ) and ∼ 100 m stratigraphic ( 10 3 – 10 9 yr ) scales. Because these variations are correlated across the basin, they record a change in basin-scale forcing, rather than smaller-scale internal feedbacks. Changing sediment input leading to a change in characteristic slopes and/or drainage area could be responsible, and another possibility is changing climate ( ± 50 W / m 2 in peak energy available for snow/ice melt).

Ancient hydrology is recorded by sedimentary rocks on Mars. The most voluminous sedimentary rocks that formed during Mars' Hesperian period are sulfate-rich rocks, explored by the $Opportunity$ rover from 2004-2012 and soon to be investigated by the $Curiosity$ rover at Gale crater. A leading hypothesis for the origin of these sulfates is that the cations were derived from evaporation of deep-sourced groundwater, as part of a global circulation of groundwater. Global groundwater circulation would imply sustained warm Earthlike conditions on Early Mars. Global circulation of groundwater including infiltration of water initially in equilibrium with Mars' CO$_2$ atmosphere implies subsurface formation of carbonate. We find that the CO$_2$ sequestration implied by the global groundwater hypothesis for the origin of sulfate-rich rocks on Mars is 30-5000 bars if the $Opportunity$ data are representative of Hesperian sulfate-rich rocks, which is so large that (even accounting for volcanic outgassing) it would bury the atmosphere. This disfavors the hypothesis that the cations for Mars' Hesperian sulfates were derived from upwelling of deep sourced groundwater. If, instead, Hesperian sulfate-rich rocks are approximated as pure Mg-sulfate (no Fe), then the CO$_2$ sequestration is 0.3-400 bars. The low end of this range is consistent with the hypothesis that the cations for Mars' Hesperian sulfates were derived from upwelling of deep sourced groundwater. In both cases, carbon sequestration by global groundwater circulation actively works to terminate surface habitability, rather than being a passive marker of warm Earthlike conditions. $Curiosity$ will soon be in a position to discriminate between these two hypotheses. Our work links Mars sulfate cation composition, carbon isotopes, and climate change., Accepted by Earth & Planetary Science Letters. 5 figures

We find net sedimentation rate ≲(13–200) μm/yr in the Aeolis Dorsa region, Mars, using the frequency of crater–river interactions. This sets a lower bound of 1–20 Myr on the total interval spanned by fluvial activity, which we correlate to the Noachian–Hesperian transition. The main uncertainty is the impact flux at the time of deposition. This result rules out basin-filling by a single catastrophic episode, such as a single impact-induced water–vapor greenhouse.

Small-crater counts on Mars light-toned sedimentary rock are often inconsistent with any isochron; these data are usually plotted then ignored. We show (using an 18-HiRISE-image, >10^4 crater dataset) that these non-isochron crater counts are often well-fit by a model where crater production is balanced by crater obliteration via steady exhumation. For these regions, we fit erosion rates. We infer that Mars light-toned sedimentary rocks typically erode at ~10^2 nm/yr, when averaged over 10 km^2 scales and 10^7-10^8 yr timescales. Crater-based erosion-rate determination is consistent with independent techniques, but can be applied to nearly all light-toned sedimentary rocks on Mars. Erosion is swift enough that radiolysis cannot destroy complex organic matter at some locations (e.g. paleolake deposits at SW Melas), but radiolysis is a severe problem at other locations (e.g. Oxia Planum). The data suggest that the relief of the Valles Marineris mounds is currently being reduced by wind erosion, and that dust production on Mars, Accepted by Icarus. 8 figures

Lakes existed on Mars later than 3.6 billion years ago, according to sedimentary evidence for deltaic deposition. The observed fluviolacustrine deposits suggest that individual lake-forming climates persisted for at least several thousand years (assuming dilute flow). But the lake watersheds’ little-weathered soils indicate a largely dry climate history, with intermittent runoff events. Here we show that these observational constraints, although inconsistent with many previously proposed triggers for lake-forming climates, are consistent with a methane burst scenario. In this scenario, chaotic transitions in mean obliquity drive latitudinal shifts in temperature and ice loading that destabilize methane clathrate. Using numerical simulations, we find that outgassed methane can build up to atmospheric levels sufficient for lake-forming climates, if methane clathrate initially occupies more than 4% of the total volume in which it is thermodynamically stable. Such occupancy fractions are consistent with methane production by water–rock reactions due to hydrothermal circulation on early Mars. We further estimate that photochemical destruction of atmospheric methane curtails the duration of individual lake-forming climates to less than a million years, consistent with observations. We conclude that methane bursts represent a potential pathway for intermittent excursions to a warm, wet climate state on early Mars.

Spacecraft observations suggest that the plumes of Saturn's moon Enceladus draw water from a subsurface ocean, but the sustainability of conduits linking ocean and surface is not understood. Observations show sustained (though tidally modulated) fissure eruptions throughout each orbit, and since the 2005 discovery of the plumes. Peak plume flux lags peak tidal extension by $\sim$1 radian, suggestive of resonance. Here we show that a model of the tiger stripes as tidally-flexed slots that puncture the ice shell can simultaneously explain the persistence of the eruptions through the tidal cycle, the phase lag, and the total power output of the tiger stripe terrain, while suggesting that the eruptions are maintained over geological timescales. The delay associated with flushing and refilling of \emph{O}(1) m-wide slots with ocean water causes erupted flux to lag tidal forcing and helps to buttress slots against closure, while tidally pumped in-slot flow leads to heating and mechanical disruption that staves off slot freeze-out. Much narrower and much wider slots cannot be sustained. In the presence of long-lived slots, the 10$^6$-yr average power output of the tiger stripes is buffered by a feedback between ice melt-back and subsidence to \emph{O}(10$^{10}$) W, which is similar to the observed power output, suggesting long-term stability. Turbulent dissipation makes testable predictions for the final flybys of Enceladus by the \emph{Cassini} spacecraft. Our model shows how open connections to an ocean can be reconciled with, and sustain, long-lived eruptions. Turbulent dissipation in long-lived slots helps maintain the ocean against freezing, maintains access by future Enceladus missions to ocean materials, and is plausibly the major energy source for tiger stripe activity.

We provide estimates of atmospheric pressure and surface composition on short-period rocky exoplanets with dayside magma pools and silicate vapor atmospheres. Atmospheric pressure tends toward vapor-pressure equilibrium with surface magma, and magma-surface composition is set by the competing effects of fractional vaporization and surface-interior exchange. We use basic models to show how surface-interior exchange is controlled by the planet's temperature, mass, and initial composition. We assume that mantle rock undergoes bulk melting to form the magma pool, and that winds flow radially away from the substellar point. With these assumptions, we find that: (1) atmosphere-interior exchange is fast when the planet's bulk-silicate FeO concentration is low, and slow when FeO concentration is high; (2) magma pools are compositionally well-mixed for substellar temperatures $\lesssim$ 2400 K, but compositionally variegated and rapidly variable for substellar temperatures $\gtrsim$ 2400 K; (3) currents within the magma pool tend to cool the top of the solid mantle ("tectonic refrigeration"); (4) contrary to earlier work, many magma planets have time-variable surface compositions., Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ, 21 pages, 19 figures

The areal centroids of the youngest polar deposits on Mars are offset from those of adjacent paleopolar deposits by 5-10 degrees. We test the hypothesis that the offset is the result of true polar wander (TPW), the motion of the solid surface with respect to the spin axis, caused by a mass redistribution within or on the surface of Mars. In particular, we consider TPW driven by late-stage volcanism during the late Hesperian to Amazonian. There is observational and qualitative support for this hypothesis: in both North and South, observed offsets lie close to a great circle 90 degrees from Tharsis, as expected for polar wander after Tharsis formed. We calculate the magnitude and direction of TPW produced by mapped late-stage lavas for a range of lithospheric thicknesses, lava thicknesses, eruption histories, and prior polar wander events. If Tharsis formed close to the equator, the stabilizing effect of a fossil rotational bulge located close to the equator leads to predicted TPW of, Accepted by Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 3 tables, 8 figures