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The research goals of this project were threefold: (1) to systematically identify the adaptation barriers encountered by local government entities in San Francisco Bay; (2) to test empirically the robustness and usefulness of a diagnostic framework (previously developed by the authors) so as to modify or refine its components; and (3) to draw larger lessons about the adaptation process and the importance of adaptation barriers—even in highly developed nations—for the scientific community in terms of future research priorities and for policy‐makers. To fulfill these goals, an in‐depth study of five California case studies in the San Francisco Bay region (Hayward, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Marin Counties, and the regional adaptation process) was undertaken. Relevant data were collected through key informant interviews, public documents, observation of and/or participation in public meetings, and a statewide survey. The study found growing, but still very limited activities in the case studies. Institutional and attitudinal barriers dominate, but economic barriers are also important, even in wealthy locales. Leadership emerged as a critical factor in moving them forward on adaptation. Science mattered some, but policy and planning opportunities were more significant in motivating or launching the adaptation process. The study also found that communities have assets, aids, and advantages that can help them avoid barriers and that there is significant opportunity to affect and overcome the barriers that are being encountered in the “here and now.” However, local communities need outside intervention to address “legacy” and “remote” barriers. With still very little visible adaptation activity “on the ground,” the study concluded that a big portion of what communities are doing to date is working on overcoming the barriers to adaptation instead

This paper synthesizes San Francisco Bay Area-focused findings from research conducted in 2010–2012 as part of the state’s Vulnerability and Adaptation study sponsored by the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Historical observations of changes already evident are summarized, as well as projections of future changes in climate based on modeling studies using various plausible scenarios of how emissions of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere may change. Studies synthesized here show how these climate changes increase risks to society and natural ecosystems in a number of ways. Sectors for which impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options are presented include water, agriculture, energy supply and demand, transportation, ecosystems, public health, wildfire, and coastal resources. Results show that depending on the vulnerability of human and natural communities, and their abilities to respond to these growing risks through adaptive changes, the San Francisco Bay Area could experience either significant impacts or maintain its resilience in the face of a rapidly changing environment.

Our Changing Climate 2012 highlights important new insights and data, using probabilistic and detailed climate projections and refined topographic, demographic and land use information.