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Transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) is influenced by climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Accurate and robust predictions based on these factors are necessary for disease prevention and control. However, the complicated transmission cycle and the characteristics of RRV notification data present challenges. Studies to compare model performance are lacking. In this study, we used RRV notification data and exposure data from 2001 to 2020 in Queensland, Australia, and compared ten models (including generalised linear models, zero-inflated models, and generalised additive models) to predict RRV incidence in different regions of Queensland. We aimed to compare model performance and to evaluate the effect of statistical over-dispersion and zero-inflation of RRV surveillance data, and non-linearity of predictors on model fit. A variable selection strategy for screening important predictors was developed and was found to be efficient and able to generate consistent and reasonable numbers of predictors across regions and in all training sets. Negative binomial models generally exhibited better model fit than Poisson models, suggesting that over-dispersion in the data is the primary factor driving model fit compared to non-linearity of predictors and excess zeros. All models predicted the peak periods well but were unable to fit and predict the magnitude of peaks, especially when there were high numbers of cases. Adding new variables including historical RRV cases and mosquito abundance may improve model performance. The standard negative binomial generalised linear model is stable, simple, and effective in prediction, and is thus considered the best choice among all models.

A widespread outbreak of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) was detected in mainland Australia in 2022 in a previous non-endemic area. Given JEV is known to be transfusion-transmissible, a rapid blood-safety risk assessment was performed using a simple deterministic model to estimate the risk to blood safety over a 3-month outbreak period during which 234,212 donors attended. The cumulative estimated incidence in donors was 82 infections with an estimated 4.26 viraemic components issued, 1.58 resulting in transfusion-transmission and an estimated risk of encephalitis of 1 in 4.3 million per component transfused over the risk period. Australia has initiated a robust public health response, including vector control, animal control and movement, and surveillance. Unlike West Nile virus, there is an effective vaccine that is being rolled-out to those at higher risk. Risk evaluation considered options such as restricting those potentially at risk to plasma for fractionation, which incorporates additional pathogen reduction, introducing a screening test, physicochemical pathogen reduction, quarantine, post donation illness policy changes and a new donor deferral. However, except for introducing a new deferral to potentially cover rare flavivirus risks, no option resulted in a clear risk reduction benefit but all posed threats to blood sufficiency or cost. Therefore, the blood safety risk was concluded to be tolerable without specific mitigations.

Since the 2016 Zika outbreak and the understanding of the teratogenic effect of this infection, there has been a newfound interest in arbovirus infections and their effects on pregnancy, resulting in numerous publications in the last 5 years. However, limited literature focuses on arbovirus infection in different stages of pregnancy and their effect on the neonate. There is currently no consensus management of perinatal acquisition of arboviruses, and current evidence is largely anecdotal observational reports. Teratogens can have different effects on the developing fetus depending on the time of infection, so infections during pregnancy should be analyzed by trimester. A better understanding of arbovirus infection in the perinatal period is required to assist obstetric, neonatal, and pediatric clinicians in making decisions about the management of mother and neonate. Our objective was to assess the evidence of adverse neonatal outcomes for several arboviral infections when contracted during the perinatal period to guide clinicians in managing these patients. There are 8 arboviruses for which neonatal outcomes from maternal acquisition in the perinatal period have been reported, with the most data for dengue and Chikungunya virus infections. The evidence reviewed in this article supports the adoption of preventive strategies to avoid ticks and mosquitoes close to the date of delivery. For the other arbovirus infections, further community-based cohort studies during outbreaks are required to evaluate whether these infections have a similar teratogenic impact.

BACKGROUND Emerging transfusion-transmissible pathogens, including arboviruses such as West Nile, Zika, dengue, and Ross River viruses, are potential threats to transfusion safety. The most prevalent arbovirus in humans in Australia is Ross River virus (RRV); however, prevalence varies substantially around the country. Modeling estimated a yearly risk of 8 to 11 potentially RRV-viremic fresh blood components nationwide. This study aimed to measure the occurrence of RRV viremia among donors who donated at Australian collection centers located in areas with significant RRV transmission during one peak season. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Plasma samples were collected from donors (n = 7500) who donated at the selected collection centers during one peak season. Viral RNA was extracted from individual samples, and quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was performed. RESULTS Regions with the highest rates of RRV transmission were not areas where donor centers were located. We did not detect RRV RNA among 7500 donations collected at the selected centers, resulting in a zero risk estimate with a one-sided 95% confidence interval of 0 to 1 in 2019 donations. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that the yearly risk of collecting a RRV-infected blood donation in Australia is low and is at the lower range of previous risk modeling. The majority of Australian donor centers were not in areas known to be at the highest risk for RRV transmission, which was not taken into account in previous models based on notification data. Therefore, we believe that the risk of RRV transfusion transmission in Australia is acceptably low and appropriately managed through existing risk management, including donation restrictions and recall policies.

Background Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred in the Americas and the Pacific involving mosquito-borne and sexual transmission. ZIKV has also emerged as a risk to global blood transfusion safety. Aedes aegypti, a mosquito well established in north and some parts of central and southern Queensland, Australia, transmits ZIKV. Aedes albopictus, another potential ZIKV vector, is a threat to mainland Australia. Since these conditions create the potential for local transmission in Australia and a possible uncertainty in the effectiveness of blood donor risk-mitigation programs, we investigated the possible impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission of ZIKV in Australia on local blood transfusion safety. Methodology/Principal findings We estimated ‘best-’ and ‘worst-’ case scenarios of monthly reproduction number (R0) for both transmission pathways of ZIKV from 1996–2015 in 11 urban or regional population centres, by varying epidemiological and entomological estimates. We then estimated the attack rate and subsequent number of infectious people to quantify the ZIKV transfusion-transmission risk using the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool. For all scenarios and with both vector species R0 was lower than one for ZIKV transmission. However, a higher risk of a sustained outbreak was estimated for Cairns, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and theoretically in Darwin during the warmest months of the year. The yearly estimation of the risk of transmitting ZIKV infection by blood transfusion remained low through the study period for all locations, with the highest potential risk estimated in Darwin. Conclusions/Significance Given the increasing demand for plasma products in Australia, the current strategy of restricting donors returning from infectious disease outbreak regions to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. However, if local transmission was suspected in the main urban centres of Australia, potentially facilitated by the geographic range expansion of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus, this mitigation strategy would need urgent review., Author summary What if Zika virus (ZIKV) had been introduced in Australia from 1996–2015 in urban centres with established mosquito vectors? Would Australian blood transfusion safety be compromised due to risks associated with ZIKV? In the event of ZIKV introduction into Australia during the period 1996–2015, our estimation shows that local transmission arising from an imported case, would have been possible in most of the selected urban centres, albeit very low. However, ZIKV transmission remained a potential threat in Cairns, Rockhampton, and Thursday Island during the warmest months. Potential geographic range expansion of both Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti is a key threat to the Australian mainland. We found that sexual transmission would have an important role in the estimation of R0 if only the Ae. albopictus population were present and not Ae. aegypti. Had both vectors been established in Australia during the period investigated and a ZIKV introduction occurred, the associated risk to blood transfusion safety would have been low. We identified regions of Australia where ZIKV transmission presents a potential, however low, concern for blood supply safety. Our study informs decision making on blood transfusion safety, public health and mosquito control policies.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that causes an acute febrile syndrome and severe, debilitating rheumatic disorders in humans that may persist for months. CHIKV’s presence in Asia dates from at least 1954, but its epidemiological profile in the region remains poorly understood. We systematically reviewed CHIKV emergence, epidemiology, clinical features, atypical manifestations and distribution of virus genotypes, in 47 countries from South East Asia (SEA) and the Western Pacific Region (WPR) during the period 1954–2017. Following the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines, Pubmed and Scopus databases, surveillance reports available in the World Health Organisation (WHO) and government websites were systematically reviewed. Of the 3504 records identified, 461 were retained for data extraction. Although CHIKV has been circulating in Asia almost continuously since the 1950s, it has significantly expanded its geographic reach in the region from 2005 onwards. Most reports identified in the review originated from India. Although all ages and both sexes can be affected, younger children and the elderly are more prone to severe and occasionally fatal forms of the disease, with child fatalities recorded since 1963 from India. The most frequent clinical features identified were arthralgia, rash, fever and headache. Both the Asian and East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotypes circulate in SEA and WPR, with ECSA genotype now predominant. Our findings indicate a substantial but poorly documented burden of CHIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific region. An evidence-based consensus on typical clinical features of chikungunya could aid in enhanced diagnosis and improved surveillance of the disease.

BACKGROUND: A fatal case of autochthonous Babesia microti infection was reported in Australia in 2012. This has implications for Australian public health and, given that babesiosis is transfusion transmissible, has possible implications for Australian blood transfusion recipients. We investigated the seroprevalence of antibodies to B. microti in Australian blood donors and in patients with clinically suspected babesiosis. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Plasma samples (n = 7,000) from donors donating in at-risk areas and clinical specimens from patients with clinically suspected babesiosis (n = 29) were tested for B. microti IgG by immunofluorescence assay (IFA). IFA initially reactive samples were tested for B. microti IgG and IgM by immunoblot and B. microti DNA by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Although five donors were initially reactive for B. microti IgG by IFA, none was confirmed for B. microti IgG (zero estimate; 95% confidence interval, 0%–0.05%) and all were negative for B. microti DNA. None of the patient samples had B. microti IgG, IgM, or DNA. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide evidence for widespread exposure to B. microti in Australian blood donors at local theoretical risk, nor does it provide evidence of B. microti infection in Australian patients with clinically suspected babesiosis. Given that confirmed evidence of previous exposure to B. microti was not seen, these data suggest that transmission of this pathogen is currently uncommon in Australia and unlikely to pose a risk to transfusion safety at present.

Dengue occurred sporadically in Bangladesh from 1964 until a large epidemic in 2000 established the virus. We trace dengue from the time it was first identified in Bangladesh and identify factors favourable to future dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics. The epidemic in 2000 was likely due to introduction of a dengue virus strain from a nearby endemic country, probably Thailand. Cessation of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) spraying, climatic, socio-demographic, and lifestyle factors also contributed to epidemic transmission. The largest number of cases was notified in 2002 and since then reported outbreaks have generally declined, although with increased notifications in alternate years. The apparent decline might be partially due to public awareness with consequent reduction in mosquito breeding and increased prevalence of immunity. However, passive hospital-based surveillance has changed with mandatory serological confirmation now required for case reporting. Further, a large number of cases remain undetected because only patients with severe dengue require hospitalisation. Thus, the reduction in notification numbers may be an artefact of the surveillance system. Indeed, population-based serological survey indicates that dengue transmission continues to be common. In the future, the absence of active interventions, unplanned urbanisation, environmental deterioration, increasing population mobility, and economic factors will heighten dengue risk. Projected increases in temperature and rainfall may exacerbate this.

SUMMARYWe aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010–2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

Copepod Mesocyclops as biological control agents for dengue was previously proven to be effective and sustainable in the Northern and Central provinces of Vietnam. We aim to study social sustainability of Mesocyclops intervention in south Vietnam. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used. An entomological survey was carried out in 100 random households of Chanh An commune, Vinh Long Province. Aedes larval indices and Mesocyclops prevalence were compared with historical pre- and post-intervention values. In the same commune, using purposeful sampling, sixteen semi-structured interviews (1 villager leader, 1 local doctor, 10 villagers, 2 teachers, 2 entomology officials), and a focus group discussion (6 Mesocyclops program collaborators) explored water storage habits, beliefs about dengue prevention and behaviour related to Mesocyclops. Thematic analysis was conducted to interpret the qualitative findings. Aedes abundance increased after responsibility for Mesocyclops intervention moved from government to community in 2010, with post-transfer surges in Breteau Index, Container Index, and Larval Density Index. Larval increments coincided with decrease in Mesocyclops prevalence. Villagers had some knowledge of dengue but it was conflated with other mosquito borne diseases and understanding of Mesocyclops was incomplete. Program adoption among the villagers was limited. With reduced government support program collaborators reported limited capacity to conduct population monitoring, and instead targeted 'problem' households. Although the Mesocyclops program was highly sustainable in northern and central provinces of Vietnam, the intervention has not been consistently adopted by southern households in Chanh An commune. Limited education, household monitoring and government support are affecting sustainability. Findings were based on a small household sample visited over a short time period, so other evaluations are needed. However, our results suggest that government support for the Mesocyclops program is still required in this part of Vietnam.

Emerging transfusion-transmissible pathogens, including arboviruses such as West Nile, Zika, dengue, and Ross River viruses, are potential threats to transfusion safety. The most prevalent arbovirus in humans in Australia is Ross River virus (RRV); however, prevalence varies substantially around the country. Modeling estimated a yearly risk of 8 to 11 potentially RRV-viremic fresh blood components nationwide. This study aimed to measure the occurrence of RRV viremia among donors who donated at Australian collection centers located in areas with significant RRV transmission during one peak season.Plasma samples were collected from donors (n = 7500) who donated at the selected collection centers during one peak season. Viral RNA was extracted from individual samples, and quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was performed.Regions with the highest rates of RRV transmission were not areas where donor centers were located. We did not detect RRV RNA among 7500 donations collected at the selected centers, resulting in a zero risk estimate with a one-sided 95% confidence interval of 0 to 1 in 2019 donations.Our results suggest that the yearly risk of collecting a RRV-infected blood donation in Australia is low and is at the lower range of previous risk modeling. The majority of Australian donor centers were not in areas known to be at the highest risk for RRV transmission, which was not taken into account in previous models based on notification data. Therefore, we believe that the risk of RRV transfusion transmission in Australia is acceptably low and appropriately managed through existing risk management, including donation restrictions and recall policies.

Dengue has a negative impact in low-and lower middle-income countries, but also affects upper middle-and high-income countries. Despite the efforts at controlling this disease, it is unclear why dengue remains an issue in affluent countries. A better understanding of dengue epidemiology and its burden, and those of chikungunya virus and Zika virus which share vectors with dengue, is required to prevent the emergence of these diseases in high-income countries in the future. The purpose of this review was to assess the relative burden of dengue in four high-income countries and to appraise the similarities and differences in dengue transmission. We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar using specific keywords for articles published up to 05 May 2016. We found that outbreaks rarely occur where only Aedes albopictus is present. The main similarities between countries uncovered by our review are the proximity to dengue-endemic countries, the presence of a competent mosquito vector, a largely nonimmune population, and a lack of citizens' engagement in control of mosquito breeding. We identified important epidemiological and environmental issues including the increase of local transmission despite control efforts, population growth, difficulty locating larval sites, and increased human mobility from neighboring endemic countries. Budget cuts in health and lack of practical vaccines contribute to an increased risk. To be successful, dengue-control programs for high-income countries must consider the epidemiology of dengue in other countries and use this information to minimize virus importation, improve the control of the cryptic larval habitat, and engage the community in reducing vector breeding. Finally, the presence of a communicable disease center is critical for managing and reducing future disease risks. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Determining the relation between climate and dengue incidence is challenging due to under-reporting of disease and consequent biased incidence estimates. Non-linear associations between climate and incidence compound this. Here, we introduce a modelling framework to estimate dengue incidence from passive surveillance data while incorporating non-linear climate effects. We estimated the true number of cases per month using a Bayesian generalised linear model, developed in stages to adjust for under-reporting. A semi-parametric thin-plate spline approach was used to quantify non-linear climate effects. The approach was applied to data collected from the national dengue surveillance system of Bangladesh. The model estimated that only 2.8% (95% credible interval 2.7–2.8) of all cases in the capital Dhaka were reported through passive case reporting. The optimal mean monthly temperature for dengue transmission is 29℃ and average monthly rainfall above 15 mm decreases transmission. Our approach provides an estimate of true incidence and an understanding of the effects of temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

International audience; Culicoides are small biting midges involved worldwide in the transmission of bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses. Feeding behaviours of Palaearctic biting midge species and their spatio-temporal dynamics remain unclear at the specific level. Three multiplex species-specific PCR-based assays were developed and used to identify blood meal source of engorged females of Palaearctic midge species of veterinary interest. Species-specific primers of potential hosts from livestock, domestic animals and wildlife (cattle, goat, sheep, red deer, roe deer, chamois, dog, pig, cat, horse) were designed and multiplexed from the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. The assays also make possible to identify whether multiple blood meals have been taken. The first results from several Culicoides populations sampled in France highlight the utility of this valuable diagnostic tool combined with species identification assays, and suggest that most of the Culicoides species may have an opportunistic feeding behaviour regarding the host distribution and density. Noteworthy is the peculiar trophic behaviour of Culicoides chiopterus showing clear trends to cattle. Information on host preference and feeding behaviours are crucial for a better understanding of vector-host interactions and disease epidemiology.

Geographical mapping of dengue in resource-limited settings is crucial for targeting control interventions but is challenging due to the problem of zero-inflation because many cases are not reported. We developed a negative binomial generalised linear mixed effect model accounting for zero-inflation, spatial, and temporal random effects to investigate the spatial variation in monthly dengue cases in Bangladesh. The model was fitted to the district-level (64 districts) monthly reported dengue cases aggregated over the period 2000 to 2009 and Bayesian inference was performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation. We found that mean monthly temperature and its interaction with mean monthly diurnal temperature range, lagged by two months were significantly associated with dengue incidence. Mean monthly rainfall at two months lag was positively associated with dengue incidence. Densely populated districts and districts bordering India or Myanmar had higher incidence than others. The model estimated that 92% of the annual dengue cases occurred between August and September. Cases were identified across the country with 94% in the capital Dhaka (located almost in the middle of the country). Less than half of the affected districts reported cases as observed from the surveillance data. The proportion reported varied by month with a higher proportion reported in high-incidence districts, but dropped towards the end of high transmission season., Author summary A better understanding of spatial and temporal variation in dengue risk is invaluable since it guides intervention strategies and facilitates effective health resource allocation. Transmission of dengue depends on the distribution and abundance of the mosquito vectors which are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, and population density. By modelling dengue-climate relationships, the burden of dengue can be estimated in locations where data on transmission are not available permitting identification of high-risk areas. This reveals the extent of under-reporting in dengue surveillance data in resource-limited countries which is essential to estimating the changing burden of dengue.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a major threat to Australia given the distribution of competent vectors, and the large number of travellers returning from endemic regions. We describe current knowledge of CHIKV importations into Australia, and quantify reported viraemic cases, with the aim of facilitating the formulation of public health policy and ensuring maintenance of blood safety.Cases reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) from 2002 to 2012 were analysed by place, month of acquisition, and place of residence. Rates of chikungunya importation were estimated based on reported cases and on the numbers of short-term movements.Between 2002 and 2012, there were 168 cases of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) imported into Australia. Victoria and New South Wales had the largest number of notifications. The main sources were Indonesia, India and Malaysia. The number of cases increased from 2008 to reach a peak in 2010 (n=64; 40%). Although Indonesia accounted for the majority of CHIKV notifications in Australia, travel from India had the highest CHIKV importation rate (number of imported cases per 100,000 travellers).The Australian population is increasingly at risk from CHIKV. Arrivals from endemic countries have increased concurrently with vector incursions via imported goods, as well as via local movement from the Torres Strait to North Queensland ports. An outbreak of CHIKV could have a significant impact on health, the safety of the blood supply and on tourism. Case and vector surveillance as well as population health responses are crucial for minimising any potential impact of CHIKV establishment in Australia.

Background Australia is one of the few high-income countries where dengue transmission regularly occurs. Dengue is a major health threat in North Queensland (NQ), where the vector Aedes aegypti is present. Whether NQ should be considered as a dengue endemic or epidemic region is an ongoing debate. To help address this issue, we analysed the characteristics of locally-acquired (LA) and imported dengue cases in NQ through time and space. We describe the epidemiology of dengue in NQ from 1995 to 2011, to identify areas to target interventions. We also investigated the timeliness of notification and identified high-risk areas. Methods Data sets of notified cases and viraemic arrivals from overseas were analysed. We developed a time series based on the LA cases and performed an analysis to capture the relationship between incidence rate and demographic factors. Spatial analysis was used to visualise incidence rates through space and time. Results Between 1995 and 2011, 93.9% of reported dengue cases were LA, mainly in the ‘Cairns and Hinterland’ district; 49.7% were males, and the mean age was 38.0 years old. The sources of imported cases (6.1%) were Indonesia (24.6%), Papua New Guinea (23.2%), Thailand (13.4%), East Timor (8.9%) and the Philippines (6.7%), consistent with national data. Travellers importing dengue were predominantly in the age groups 30–34 and 45–49 years old, whereas the age range of patients who acquired dengue locally was larger. The number of LA cases correlated with the number of viraemic importations. Duration of viraemia of public health importance was positively correlated with the delay in notification. Dengue incidence varied over the year and was typically highest in summer and autumn. However, dengue activity has been reported in winter, and a number of outbreaks resulted in transmission year-round. Conclusions This study emphasizes the importance of delay in notification and consequent duration of viraemia of public health importance for dengue outbreak duration. It also highlights the need for targeted vector control programmes and surveillance of travellers at airports as well as regularly affected local areas. Given the likely increase in dengue transmission with climate change, endemicity in NQ may become a very real possibility. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1756-3305-7-379) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Culicoides are small biting midges involved worldwide in blue­tongue and African horse sickness transmission. Feeding behav­iour as well as spatial and temporal dynamics of trophic behav­iour of Culicoides is unknown at the specific level for Palaearctic species. Multiplex allele-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays were used to identify the blood meal source of five main Palaearctic species. Species-specific primers of potential hosts (cow, goat, sheep, human, cat, dog, horse) were derived from vertebrate mitochondrial cytochrome b. Two different mul­tiplex assays served to identify blood meals from livestock or domestic fauna, and to determine whether multiple blood meals had been taken (gonotrophic concordance). Moreover, this method helped to identify specimens at the specific level. The first results highlight the interest of this valuable tool combined with species identification assays, and suggest that Culicoides species may have an opportunistic behaviour regarding host dis­tribution and density. Future studies will focus on the temporal dynamics of trophic behaviour.

SUMMARYDengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046–2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.