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ContextFRAX® estimates 10-year fracture probability from osteoporosis-specific risk factors. Medical comorbidity indicators are associated with fracture risk but whether these are independent from those in FRAX is uncertain.ObjectiveWe hypothesized Johns Hopkins Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG®) score or recent hospitalization number may be independently associated with increased risk for fractures.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included women and men age ≥ 40 in the Manitoba BMD Registry (1996-2016) with at least 3 years prior health care data and used linked administrative databases to construct ADG scores along with number of hospitalizations for each individual. Incident Major Osteoporotic Fracture and Hip Fracture was ascertained during average follow-up of 9 years; Cox regression analysis determined the association between increasing ADG score or number of hospitalizations and fractures.ResultsSeparately, hospitalizations and ADG score independently increased the hazard ratio for fracture at all levels of comorbidity (hazard range 1.2-1.8, all P < 0.05), irrespective of adjustment for FRAX, BMD, and competing mortality. Taken together, there was still a higher than predicted rate of fracture at all levels of increased comorbidity, independent of FRAX and BMD but attenuated by competing mortality. Using an intervention threshold of major fracture risk >20%, application of the comorbidity hazard ratio multiplier to the patient population FRAX scores would increase the number of treatment candidates from 8.6% to 14.4%.ConclusionBoth complex and simple measures of medical comorbidity may be used to modify FRAX-based risk estimates to capture the increased fracture risk associated with multiple comorbid conditions in older patients.

Summary: In a combined analysis of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years, enrolled in the two Women’s Health Initiative hormone therapy trials, menopausal hormone therapy vs. placebo reduced the risk of fracture regardless of baseline FRAX fracture probability and falls history. Introduction: The aim of this study was to determine if the anti-fracture efficacy of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) differed by baseline falls history or fracture risk probability as estimated by FRAX, in a combined analysis of the two Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials. Methods: A total of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years were randomized to receive MHT (n = 12,739) or matching placebo (n = 12,650). At baseline, questionnaires were used to collect information on falls history, within the last 12 months, and clinical risk factors. FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated without BMD. Incident clinical fractures were verified using medical records. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between treatment and fractures in (1) the whole cohort; (2) those with prior falls; and (3) those without prior falls. The effect of baseline FRAX probability on efficacy was investigated in the whole cohort. Results: Over 4.3 ± 2.1 years (mean ± SD), MHT (vs. placebo) significantly reduced the risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72 [95% CI, 0.65–0.78]), MOF (HR 0.60 [95% CI, 0.53–0.69]), and hip fracture (0.66 [95% CI, 0.45–0.96]). Treatment was effective in reducing the risk of any clinical fracture, MOF, and hip fracture in women regardless of baseline FRAX MOF probability, with no evidence of an interaction between MHT and FRAX (p > 0.30). Similarly, there was no interaction (p > 0.30) between MHT and prior falls. Conclusion: In the combined WHI trials, compared to placebo, MHT reduces fracture risk regardless of FRAX probability and falls history in postmenopausal women.

Fractures of the proximal femur (FPF) are one of the most serious complications of osteoporosis, which has important medical, social and economic consequences. It is well known that their incidence gradually increases with age and depends on the sex, but such epidemiological studies in Ukraine are limited. This article presents the results of the first Ukrainian multicenter epidemiological study STOP (System of Registration of Osteoporotic fractures in Ukrainian Population) in terms of the incidence of FPF in persons aged 40 years and older. It was established that the FPF incidence in Ukrainian population increases with age. The study demonstrated higher rates of FPF incidence in men younger than 55 years with subsequent prevalence rates in women. The index of the overall FPF incidence was similar to that of neighboring countries (Poland and Romania). As FPF is a serious health problem in Ukraine and all over the world, the regional epidemiological data on their incidence is an important basis for the development of a national system for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis and its complications.

FRAX® — метод (алгоритм) оцінки 10-річного ризику переломів стегнової кістки та інших основних остеопоротичних переломів, до яких відносять переломи стегнової, променевої, плечової кісток й клінічно значущі переломи тіл хребців, в осіб віком 40 років і більше. Алгоритм розроблений на підставі використання показників віку, індексу маси тіла й різних клінічних факторів ризику переломів із врахуванням показника мінеральної щільності кісткової тканини шийки стегнової кістки або без нього. На сьогодні алгоритм FRAX включений у більшість європейських та американських рекомендацій щодо профілактики й лікування остеопорозу. Стаття присвячена результатам розробки й адаптації української моделі FRAX. У червні 2016 року завдяки співробітникам Українського науково-медичного центру проблем остеопорозу та ДУ «Інститут геронтології імені Д.Ф. Чеботарьова НАМН України» з’явилась можливість заповнювати опитувальник українською мовою, а в жовтні завдяки авторам статті на офіційному інтернет-ресурсі FRAX з’явилася нова українська модель. Її створення базується на результатах епідеміологічних досліджень, проведених останніми роками членами Української асоціації остеопорозу, співробітниками Українського науково-медичного центру проблем остеопорозу за підтримки Української асоціації травматологів-ортопедів (зокрема у м. Вінниці (1997–2002) та м. Ужгороді і Вінницькому районі (дослідження СТОП, 2011–2012)). Українська модель FRAX є першою вітчизняною моделлю прогнозування ризику основних остеопоротичних переломів й переломів стегнової кістки. Вона створена на основі оригінальної методики FRAX, яка була розроблена співробітниками Центру метаболічних захворювань кісток при ВООЗ. Усе вищезазначене робить українську модель FRAX® унікальною методикою для оцінки ризику остеопоротичних переломів та обґрунтовує необхідність широкого її впровадження в клінічну практику.

Background. Nowadays, FRAX® algorithm is an informative method for evaluation of the risk of osteoporotic fractures, implemented in European and American guidelines for osteoporosis management. However, there are differences in “intervention thresholds” for antiosteoporotic treatment, which depend on the country, the model of health care system and the reimbursement for treatment. Ukrainian version of FRAX appeared in Ukraine in 2016, but the thresholds for intervention have not yet been developed. The purpose of the study was to determine the “thresholds” for the pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis and for additional diagnostic examination of Ukrainian population using national FRAX model. Materials and methods. 3790 outpatients aged 40–90 years (mean age 61.9 ± 10.0 years) were examined. The development of the “thresholds” for intervention and additional assessment of the bone using dual-energy X-ray densitometry (DXA) based on the methodology adopted by the Natio­nal Osteoporosis Guideline Group in UK, which is further used in European guidelines. Results. There was an increase of the “thre­shold” for pharmacological intervention (“upper threshold”) with age from 6.6 % at the age of 40 to 13 % at the age of 75–85 years. The “lower threshold” (threshold for additional examination) increased significantly from 2.4 % at the age of 40 to 6.9 % in wo­men aged 85 years. The evaluation strategy begins with an analysis of the history of low-traumatic fracture. In its presence, a decision to start antiosteoporotic treatment without DXA should be made. In patients without history of fracture, calculation of fracture risk according to FRAX is required. When the risk exceeds the limit of the “upper threshold” antiosteoporotic treatment without DXA is recommended, when its values below the limit of “lower thre­shold” — additional examination or treatment is not required. In case of intermediate risk of fracture a DXA should be conducted with a reassessment of fracture risk and management tactics. Conclusions. The effectiveness of FRAX principles which uses in European guideline, but with particularities of the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in Ukraine, has been proved. Although this approach is cost-effective in other countries, its use in Ukraine may differ and may need to be further explored with an economic assessment of costs and benefits.

Assessment and treatment pathways using FRAX-based intervention thresholds in Chile can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk.The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Chile based on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probabilities derived from FRAX®.Intervention and assessment thresholds were derived using methods adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Chile. Age-dependent and hybrid assessment and intervention thresholds were applied to 1998 women and 1122 men age 50 years or more drawn from participants in the National Health Survey 2016-2017.Approximately 12% of men and women had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. Using age-dependent thresholds, an additional 2.6% of women (0.3% of men) were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended in 5% of men and 38% of women. With hybrid thresholds, an additional 13% of women (3.6% of men) were eligible for treatment and BMD recommended in 11% of men and 42% of women.The application of hybrid intervention thresholds ameliorates the disparity in fracture probabilities seen with age-dependent thresholds. Probability-based assessment of fracture risk, including the use of the hybrid intervention thresholds for Chile, is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.

A greater propensity to falling is associated with higher fracture risk. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior falls.Prior falls increase subsequent fracture risk but are not currently directly included in the FRAX tool. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior falls on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX®.We studied 21,116 women and men age 40 years or older (mean age 65.7 ± 10.1 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX®), self-reported falls for the previous year, and subsequent fracture outcomes in a registry-based cohort. The risks of death, hip fracture, and non-hip major osteoporotic fracture (MOF-NH) were determined by Cox proportional hazards regression for fall number category versus the whole population (i.e., an average number of falls). Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of falls from the hazards of death and fracture incorporated into the FRAX model for the UK. The probability ratios (number of falls vs. average number of falls) provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of falls.Compared with the average number of falls, the hazard ratios for hip fracture, MOF-NH and death were lower than unity in the absence of a fall history. Hazard ratios increased progressively with an increasing number of reported falls. The probability ratio rose progressively as the number of reported falls increased. Probability ratios decreased with age, an effect that was more marked the greater the number of prior falls.The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls.

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) combines clinical risk factors and optionally femoral neck bone density to estimate major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture probability. Hip dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) simultaneously measures the trochanter and total hip, but these regions are not considered by FRAX. Our aim was to determine whether discordance in trochanter and total hip bone density (defined as ≥1 T-score difference from the femoral neck) affects fracture risk adjusted for fracture probability. Using the Manitoba bone density registry, we identified 84,773 women and men age 40 years or older undergoing baseline hip DXA. The outcomes were incident MOF and hip fracture. Cox regression hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted for baseline fracture probability were used to test the association between hip T-score discordance and incident fractures. Hip T-score discordance affected more than one in five subjects (trochanter lower in 3.9%, higher in 14.2%; total hip lower in 0.3%, higher in 14.9%). After mean 8.8 years there were 8444 incident MOF including 2664 hip fractures. Discordantly lower trochanter and lower total hip T-score (≥1 below femoral neck) was associated with increased risk for MOF (adjusted HRs 1.47 and 1.60) and hip fracture (HRs 1.85 and 2.12), while discordantly higher trochanter and total hip T-score (≥1 above femoral neck) was associated with lower risk for MOF (HRs 0.83 and 0.71) and hip fracture (HRs 0.79 and 0.68). In models that examined the trochanter and total hip simultaneously, discordantly lower trochanter T-score was associated with increased incident MOF and hip fracture risk (HRs 1.43 and 1.79) whereas discordantly higher total hip T-score was associated with lower risk (HRs 0.73 and 0.75). In conclusion, trochanter and total hip regions frequently show T-scores that are discordant with the femoral neck. This information strongly affects incident fracture risk independent of fracture probability scores computed with femoral neck bone density. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

This position paper of the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) addresses the rationale for separate diagnostic and intervention thresholds in osteoporosis. We conclude that the current BMD-based diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis be retained whilst clarity is brought to bear on the distinction between diagnostic and intervention thresholds.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived appendicular lean mass/height2 (ALM/ht2) is the most commonly used estimate of muscle mass in the assessment of sarcopenia, but its predictive value for fracture is substantially attenuated by femoral neck (fn) bone mineral density (BMD). We investigated predictive value of 11 sarcopenia definitions for incident fracture, independent of fnBMD, fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®) probability, and prior falls, using an extension of Poisson regression in US, Sweden, and Hong Kong Osteoporois Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) cohorts. Definitions tested were those of Baumgartner and Delmonico (ALM/ht2 only), Morley, the International Working Group on Sarcopenia, European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP1 and 2), Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia, Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) 1 and 2 (using ALM/body mass index [BMI], incorporating muscle strength and/or physical performance measures plus ALM/ht2), and Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (gait speed and grip strength). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline and reported as hazard ratio (HR) for first incident fracture, here major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; clinical vertebral, hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus). Further analyses adjusted additionally for FRAX-MOF probability (n = 7531; calculated ± fnBMD), prior falls (y/n), or fnBMD T-score. Results were synthesized by meta-analysis. In 5660 men in USA, 2764 Sweden and 1987 Hong Kong (mean ages 73.5, 75.4, and 72.4 years, respectively), sarcopenia prevalence ranged from 0.5% to 35%. Sarcopenia status, by all definitions except those of FNIH, was associated with incident MOF (HR = 1.39 to 2.07). Associations were robust to adjustment for prior falls or FRAX probability (without fnBMD); adjustment for fnBMD T-score attenuated associations. EWGSOP2 severe sarcopenia (incorporating chair stand time, gait speed, and grip strength plus ALM) was most predictive, albeit at low prevalence, and appeared only modestly influenced by inclusion of fnBMD. In conclusion, the predictive value for fracture of sarcopenia definitions based on ALM is reduced by adjustment for fnBMD but strengthened by additional inclusion of physical performance measures.

In the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), we investigated associations between baseline dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) appendicular lean mass (ALM) and risk of incident fractures, falls, and mortality (separately for each outcome) among older postmenopausal women, accounting for bone mineral density (BMD), prior falls, and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® ) probability. The WHI is a prospective study of postmenopausal women undertaken at 40 US sites. We used an extension of Poisson regression to investigate the relationship between baseline ALM (corrected for height2 ) and incident fracture outcomes, presented here for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF: hip, clinical vertebral, forearm, or proximal humerus), falls, and death. Associations were adjusted for age, time since baseline and randomization group, or additionally for femoral neck (FN) BMD, prior falls, or FRAX probability (MOF without BMD) and are reported as gradient of risk (GR: hazard ratio for first incident fracture per SD increment) in ALM/height2 (GR). Data were available for 11,187 women (mean [SD] age 63.3 [7.4] years). In the base models (adjusted for age, follow-up time, and randomization group), greater ALM/height2 was associated with lower risk of incident MOF (GR = 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.94). The association was independent of prior falls but was attenuated by FRAX probability. Adjustment for FN BMD T-score led to attenuation and inversion of the risk relationship (GR = 1.06; 95% CI 0.98-1.14). There were no associations between ALM/height2 and incident falls. However, there was a 7% to 15% increase in risk of death during follow-up for each SD greater ALM/height2 , depending on specific adjustment. In WHI, and consistent with our findings in older men (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men [MrOS] study cohorts), the predictive value of DXA-ALM for future clinical fracture is attenuated (and potentially inverted) after adjustment for femoral neck BMD T-score. However, intriguing positive, but modest, associations between ALM/height2 and mortality remain robust. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The incidence of hip and major osteoporotic fracture was increased in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism even in patients not referred for parathyroidectomy. The risk of death was also increased which attenuated an effect on fracture probabilities. The findings argue for widening the indications for parathyroidectomy in mild primary hyperparathyroidism.Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is associated with an increase in the risk of fracture. In FRAX, the increase in risk is assumed to be mediated by low bone mineral density (BMD). However, the risk of death is also increased and its effect on fracture probability is not known.The aim of this study was to determine whether PHPT affects hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture risk independently of bone mineral density (BMD) and whether this and any increase in mortality affects the assessment of fracture probability.A register-based survey of patients with PHPT and matched controls in Denmark were identified from hospital registers. The incidence of death, hip fracture, and major osteoporotic fracture were determined for computing fracture probabilities excluding time after parathyroidectomy. The gradient of risk for fracture for differences in BMD was determined in a subset of patients and in BMD controls. The severity of disease was based on serum calcium and parathyroid hormone levels.We identified 6884 patients with biochemically confirmed PHPT and 68,665 matched population controls. On follow-up, excluding time after parathyroidectomy in those undergoing surgery, patients with PHPT had a higher risk of death (+52%), hip fracture (+48%), and major osteoporotic fracture (+36%) than population controls. At any given age, average 10-year probabilities of fracture were higher in patients with PHPT than population controls. The gradient of fracture risk with differences in BMD was similar in cases and controls. Results were similar when confined to patients not undergoing parathyroidectomy. Fracture probability decreased with the severity of disease due to an increase in mortality rather than fracture risk.The risk of hip and other major osteoporotic fracture is increased in PHPT irrespective of the disease severity. Fracture probability was attenuated due to the competing effect of mortality. The increased fracture risk in patients treated conservatively argues for widening the indications for parathyroidectomy in mild PHPT.

Aims To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. Methods A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. Results The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). Conclusion Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty ( https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk ). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820.

Glucocorticoids are widely used to suppress inflammation or the immune system. High doses and long-term use of glucocorticoids lead to an important and common iatrogenic complication, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis, in a substantial proportion of patients. Glucocorticoids mainly increase bone resorption during the initial phase (the first year of treatment) by enhancing the differentiation and maturation of osteoclasts. Glucocorticoids also inhibit osteoblastogenesis and promote apoptosis of osteoblasts and osteocytes, resulting in decreased bone formation during long-term use. Several indirect effects of glucocorticoids on bone metabolism, such as suppression of production of insulin-like growth factor 1 or growth hormone, are involved in the pathogenesis of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis. Fracture risk assessment for all patients with long-term use of oral glucocorticoids is required. Non-pharmacological interventions to manage the risk of fracture should be prescribed to all patients, while pharmacological management is reserved for patients who have increased fracture risk. Various treatment options can be used, ranging from bisphosphonates to denosumab, as well as teriparatide. Finally, appropriate monitoring during treatment is also important.

Recent studies suggest that the RANK/RANKL system impacts muscle function and/or mass. In the pivotal placebo-controlled fracture trial of the RANKL inhibitor denosumab in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis, treatment was associated with a lower incidence of non-fracture-related falls (p = 0.02). This ad hoc exploratory analysis pooled data from five placebo-controlled trials of denosumab to determine consistency across trials, if any, of the reduction of fall incidence. The analysis included trials in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis and low bone mass, men with osteoporosis, women receiving adjuvant aromatase inhibitors for breast cancer, and men receiving androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer. The analysis was stratified by trial, and only included data from the placebo-controlled period of each trial. A time-to-event analysis of first fall and exposure-adjusted subject incidence rates of falls were analyzed. Falls were reported and captured as adverse events. The analysis comprised 10,036 individuals; 5030 received denosumab 60 mg subcutaneously once every 6 months for 12 to 36 months and 5006 received placebo. Kaplan-Meier estimates showed an occurrence of falls in 6.5% of subjects in the placebo group compared with 5.2% of subjects in the denosumab group (hazard ratio = 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.66-0.93; p = 0.0061). Heterogeneity in study designs did not permit overall assessment of association with fracture outcomes. In conclusion, denosumab may reduce the risk of falls in addition to its established fracture risk reduction by reducing bone resorption and increasing bone mass. These observations require further exploration and confirmation in studies with muscle function or falls as the primary outcome. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.. ispartof: JOURNAL OF BONE AND MINERAL RESEARCH vol:35 issue:6 pages:1014-1021 ispartof: location:United States status: published

FRAX estimates 10-year fracture major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture probability from multiple risk factors. FRAX does not consider prior fracture site or time since fracture. Fracture risk is greater in the initial 2-year post-fracture period (imminent risk), implying that FRAX may underestimate risk in this setting. We used the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry to examine the effect of fracture recency and site on incident fracture risk predictions using FRAX. We identified women aged 40 years or older with baseline BMD and FRAX scores. Observed fracture outcomes to 10 years were compared with predicted 10-year fracture probability stratified by prior fracture status: none, recent (2 years [median 0.3 years]), and remote (≥2 years [median 10.6 years]). For women with recent fractures, we also examined proposed multipliers to adjust FRAX for the effect of fracture recency and site. The cohort comprised 33,465 women aged 40 to 64 years (1897 recent fracture, 2120 remote fracture) and 33,806 women aged ≥65 years (2365 fracture, 4135 remote fracture). Observed fracture probability was consistent with predicted probability in most analyses. In women aged 40 to 64 years, there was a significant effect of recent vertebral and humerus fracture on MOF (observed to predicted 1.61 and 1.48, respectively), but these effects were still lower than the proposed multipliers (2.32 and 1.67, respectively). No significant effect of fracture recency was found after hip or forearm fracture in either age group. Our findings contribute to accumulating evidence of the importance of recent fracture. The effect of fracture recency was not consistent across fracture sites and with a lower magnitude than previously reported. Further quantification of effect size and specificity in additional independent cohorts is warranted to validate and refine recent-fracture multipliers in fracture risk assessment. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The Danish Fracture Risk Evaluation Model (FREM) was found to predict fracture risk independent of 10-year fracture probability derived with the FRAX® tool including bone mineral density from DXA.FREM was developed from Danish public health registers without DXA information to identify high imminent risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF), while FRAX® estimates 10-year fracture probability from clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) from DXA. The FREM algorithm showed significant 1- and 2-year fracture risk stratification when applied to a clinical population from Manitoba, Canada. We examined whether FREM predicts 10-year fracture risk independent of 10-year FRAX probability computed with BMD.Using the Manitoba BMD Program registry, we identified women and men aged ≥ 45 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment. We calculated FREM and FRAX scores, and identified incident fractures over 10 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident fracture were estimated according to FREM quintile, adjusted for FRAX probability. We compared predicted with observed 10-year cumulative fracture probability estimated with competing mortality.The study population comprised 74,446 women, mean age 65.2 years; 7945 men, mean age 67.5 years. There were 7957 and 646 incident MOF and 2554 and 294 incident HF in women and men, respectively. Higher FREM scores were associated with increased risk for MOF (highest vs middle quintile HRs 1.49 women, 2.06 men) and HF (highest vs middle quintile HRs 2.15 women, 2.20 men) even when adjusted for FRAX. Greater mortality with higher FREM scores attenuated its effect on 10-year fracture probability. In the highest FREM quintile, observed slightly exceeded predicted 10-year probability for MOF (ratios 1.05 in women, 1.49 in men) and HF (ratios 1.29 in women, 1.34 in men).Higher FREM scores identified women and men at increased fracture risk even when adjusted for FRAX probability that included BMD; hence, FREM provides additional predictive information to FRAX. FRAX slightly underestimated 10-year fracture probability in those falling within the highest FREM quintile.

Introduction Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have been based historically on the measurement of bone mineral density. The development of FRAX® has permitted more accurate assessment of fracture risk. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Ecuador based on FRAX. Methods A total of 2367 women aged 60–94 years were selected from the National Health, Welfare and Aging Survey (SABE) conducted in Ecuador. Probabilities of major osteoporotic and hip fracture were computed using the Ecuadorian FRAX model. The proportion of women eligible for treatment and bone mineral density assessment was determined based on age-specific intervention thresholds and a hybrid threshold was fixed from age 75 years. Results A total of 87 women (3.7%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 49 women were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold using age-specific thresholds. An BMD test would be recommended in 1131 women (48%) so that FRAX could be recalculated with the inclusion of femoral neck BMD. With the hybrid threshold, an additional 170 women were eligible for treatment and an BMD test recommended in 1218 women. Conclusion The hybrid threshold identifies more women eligible for treatment than age-specific thresholds. Although age-specific thresholds identify women at higher risk of fracture, the lower number of women identified results in fewer identified fracture cases.

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by impaired bone microarchitecture and reduced bone mineral density (BMD) resulting in bone fragility and increased risk of fracture. In western societies, one in three women and one in five men will sustain an osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetime from the age of 50 years. Fragility fractures, especially of the spine and hip, commonly give rise to increased morbidity and mortality. In the five largest European countries and Sweden, fragility fractures were the cause of 2.6 million disability-adjusted life years in 2016 and the fracture-related costs increased from €29.6 billion in 2010 to €37.5 billion in 2017. In the European Union and the USA, only a small proportion of women eligible for pharmacological treatment are being prescribed osteoporosis medication. Secondary fracture prevention, using Fracture Liaison Services, can be used to increase the rates of fracture risk assessment, BMD testing and use of osteoporosis medication in order to reduce fracture numbers. Additionally, established primary prevention strategies, based on case-finding methods utilizing fracture prediction tools, such as FRAX, to identify women without fracture but with elevated risk, are recommended in order to further reduce fracture numbers.

Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Saudi Arabi can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk.Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have historically been based on the measurement of bone mineral density. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Saudi Arabia based on fracture probabilities derived from FRAX®.The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Saudi Arabia. The methodology was applied to women age 40 years or more drawn from a tertiary referral population for skeletal assessment. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from the referral and FRAX derivation cohorts.Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.0% at the age of 50 years increasing to 7.6% at the age of 70 years. A total of 163 of 1365 women (11.9%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 5 women were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended for 593 women (43.4%) so that FRAX could be recalculated with the inclusion of femoral neck BMD. Of these, 220 individuals would be eligible for treatment after a BMD test and 373 women categorised at low risk after a BMD test.Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Saudi Arabia to help guide decisions about treatment.

Summary A simple question construct regarding number of falls in the previous year, ascertained by a single question, was strongly associated with incident fractures in routine clinical practice using a population-based dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) registry. Introduction There is conflicting evidence from research cohorts that falls independently increase fracture risk. We examined the independent effects of falls on subsequent fractures in a large clinical registry of bone mineral density (BMD) results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada that has been systematically collecting self-reported falls information since September 1, 2012. Methods The study population consisted of 24,943 women and men aged 40 years and older (mean age 65.5 ± 10.2 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX), self-reported falls for the previous year (categorized as none, 1, 2, or > 3) and fracture outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95 confidence intervals (CI) for time to fracture were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results During mean observation time of 2.7 ± 1.0 years, 863 (3.5%) sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 212 (0.8%) sustained a hip fracture, and 1210 (4.9%) sustained any incident fracture. Compared with no falls in the previous year (referent), there was a gradient of increasing risk for fracture with increasing number of falls (all P

SummaryWe compared the utility of the current Iranian guidelines that recommend treatment in women with a T-score ≤ − 2.5 SD with a FRAX-based intervention threshold equivalent to women of average BMI with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age.IntroductionThe fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX® has been recently calibrated for Iran, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice.MethodsThe age-specific ten-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of − 2.5 SD, in line with current guidelines in Iran. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without BMD. The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing.ResultsWhen a BMD T-score ≤ − 2.5 SD was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years was approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with an average BMD and no risk factors. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of − 2.5 SD was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture rose with age from 4.9% at the age of 50 years to 17%, at the age of 80 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages.ConclusionIntervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a “fracture threshold” target women at high fracture risk.

Background Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) used in breast cancer induce loss in bone mineral density (BMD) and are reported to increase fracture risk. Materials and Methods Using a population-based BMD registry, we identified women aged at least 40 years initiating AIs for breast cancer with at least 12 months of AI exposure (n = 1,775), women with breast cancer not receiving AIs (n = 1,016), and women from the general population (n = 34,205). Fracture outcomes were assessed to March 31, 2017 (mean, 6.2 years for AI users). Results At baseline, AI users had higher body mass index (BMI), higher BMD, lower osteoporosis prevalence, and fewer prior fractures than women from the general population or women with breast cancer without AI use (all p < .001). After adjusting for all covariates, AI users were not at significantly greater risk for major osteoporotic fractures (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93–1.42), hip fracture (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.56–1.43), or any fracture (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.88–1.28) compared with the general population. Conclusion Higher baseline BMI, BMD, and lower prevalence of prior fracture at baseline may offset the adverse effects of AI exposure. Although confirmatory data from large cohort studies are required, our findings challenge the view that all women with breast cancer initiating AI therapy should be considered at high risk for fractures. Implications for Practice In a population-based observational registry that included 1,775 patients initiating long-term aromatase inhibitor therapy, risk for major osteoporotic fracture, hip fracture, or any fracture was similar to the general population. Higher baseline body mass index, bone mineral density, and lower prevalence of prior fracture at baseline may offset the adverse effects of aromatase inhibitor exposure.

It is well recognized that poor muscle function and poor physical performance are strong predictors of clinically relevant adverse events in older people. Given the large number of approaches to measure muscle function and physical performance, clinicians often struggle to choose a tool that is appropriate and validated for the population of older people they deal with. In this paper, an overview of different methods available and applicable in clinical settings is proposed. This paper is based on literature reviews performed by members of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (ESCEO) working group on frailty and sarcopenia. Face-to-face meetings were organized afterwards where the whole group could amend and discuss the recommendations further. Several characteristics should be considered when choosing a tool: (1) purpose of the assessment (intervention, screening, diagnosis); (2) patient characteristics (population, settings, functional ability, etc.); (3) psychometric properties of the tool (test–retest reliability, inter-rater reliability, responsiveness, floor and ceiling effects, etc.); (4) applicability of the tool in clinical settings (overall cost, time required for the examination, level of training, equipment, patient acceptance, etc.); (5) prognostic reliability for relevant clinical outcomes. Based on these criteria and the available evidence, the expert group advises the use of grip strength to measure muscle strength and the use of 4-m gait speed or the Short Physical Performance Battery test to measure physical performance in daily practice. The tools proposed are relevant for the assessment of muscle weakness and physical performance. Subjects with low values should receive additional diagnostic workups to achieve a full diagnosis of the underlying condition responsible (sarcopenia, frailty or other).

Introduction Solid organ transplantation is an established therapy for end-stage organ failure. Both pre-transplantation bone disease and immunosuppressive regimens result in rapid bone loss and increased fracture rates. Methods The European Calcified Tissue Society (ECTS) formed a working group to perform a systematic review of existing literature on the consequences of end-stage kidney, liver, heart, and lung disease on bone health. Moreover, we assessed the characteristics of post-transplant bone disease and the skeletal effects of immunosuppressive agents and aimed to provide recommendations for the prevention and treatment of transplantation-related osteoporosis. Results Characteristics of bone disease may differ depending on the organ that fails, but patients awaiting solid organ transplantation frequently depict a wide spectrum of bone and mineral abnormalities. Common features are a decreased bone mass and impaired bone strength with consequent high fracture risk, all of which are aggravated in the early post-transplantation period. Conclusion Both the underlying disease leading to end-stage organ failure and the immunosuppression regimens implemented after successful organ transplantation have detrimental effects on bone mass, quality and strength. Given existing ample data confirming the high frequency of bone disease in patients awaiting solid organ transplantation, we recommend that all transplant candidates should be assessed for osteoporosis and fracture risk and, if indicated, treated before and after transplantation. Since bone loss in the early post-transplantation period occurs in virtually all solid organ recipients and is associated with glucocorticoid administration, the goal should be to use the lowest possible dose and to taper and withdraw glucocorticoids as early as possible.

Summary A surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan has been constructed using age-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age-specific mortality rates from Pakistan. Introduction FRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fracture. In such circumstances, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation have recommended the development of a surrogate FRAX model, based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country. Objective This paper describes the development and characteristics of a surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan. Methods The FRAX model used the ethnic-specific incidence of hip fracture in Indian men and women living in Singapore, combined with the death risk for Pakistan. Results The surrogate model gave somewhat lower 10-year fracture probabilities for men and women at all ages compared to the model for Indians from Singapore, reflecting a higher mortality risk in Pakistan. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (r ≥ 0.998) so that the use of the Pakistan model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 36,524 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in Pakistan, with a predicted increase by 214% to 114,820 in 2050. Conclusion The surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan provides an opportunity to determine fracture probability within the Pakistan population and help guide decisions about treatment.

microRNAs regulate a myriad of physiological processes, including skeletal muscle regeneration and homeostasis. During ageing, changes in muscle fibre microenvironment contribute to the capability of satellite cells to regenerate the muscle in response to injury and loading stressors. In this study, we isolated murine satellite cells and primary myogenic progenitors from mice and humans to demonstrate that the microRNA miR-24-3p and its target peroxiredoxin 6 (Prdx6) play an important role in muscle regeneration during ageing, regulating satellite cell viability and their differentiation potential. Our results show upregulation of miR-24 during early stages of muscle regeneration in vivo in adult mice, suggesting a potential role of miR-24 at the early stages of muscle injury. On contrary, miR-24 was downregulated during regeneration of muscle of old mice. miR-24 was also downregulated, whereas its target gene Prdx6 was upregulated, in satellite cells isolated from old mice. miR-24 consistently regulated viability and myogenic potential of myogenic progenitors from both humans and old mice, suggesting that changes in miR-24 levels during ageing may contribute to defective early stages of muscle regeneration during ageing through affecting satellite cell viability and myogenic potential. This regulation likely occurs via miR-24 counteracting the generation of reactive oxygen species through Prdx6 de-repression in primary myogenic progenitors isolated from humans and old mice. We propose that downregulation of miR-24 in muscle of old mice following injury may be a protective mechanism against elevated ROS levels to maintain satellite cell viability and myogenic potential, acting through Prdx6 upregulation. However, as miR-24 is a regulator of p16 and p21, this downregulation may lead to increased satellite cell senescence, therefore representing an age-related failed compensatory mechanism.

BackgroundIndividuals with high bone mass (HBM) have a greater odds of prevalent radiographic hip osteoarthritis (OA), reflecting an association with bone-forming OA sub-phenotypes (e.g. osteophytosis, subchondral sclerosis). As the role of bone mineral density (BMD) in hip OA progression is unclear, we aimed to determine if individuals with HBM have increased incidence and/or progression of bone-forming OA sub-phenotypes.MethodsWe analysed an adult cohort with and without HBM (L1 and/or total hip BMDZ-score > + 3.2) with pelvic radiographs collected at baseline and 8-year follow-up. Sub-phenotypes were graded using the OARSI atlas. Superior/inferior acetabular/femoral osteophyte and medial/superior joint space narrowing (JSN) grades were summed and Δosteophyte and ΔJSN derived. Pain and functional limitations were quantified using the WOMAC questionnaire. Associations between HBM status and change in OA sub-phenotypes were determined using multivariable linear/logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, height, total body fat mass, follow-up time and baseline sub-phenotype grade. Generalised estimating equations accounted for individual-level clustering.ResultsOf 136 individuals, 62% had HBM at baseline, 72% were female and mean (SD) age was 59 (10) years. HBM was positively associated with both Δosteophytes and ΔJSN (adjusted mean grade differences between individuals with and without HBMβosteophyte = 0.30 [0.01, 0.58],p = 0.019 andβJSN = 0.10 [0.01, 0.18],p = 0.019). Incident subchondral sclerosis was rare. HBM individuals had higher WOMAC hip functional limitation scores (β = 8.3 [0.7, 15.98],p = 0.032).ConclusionsHBM is associated with the worsening of hip osteophytes and JSN over an average of 8 years, as well as increased hip pain and functional limitation.

Recently, coupled musculoskeletal-finite element modelling approaches have emerged as a way to investigate femoral neck loading during various daily activities. Combining personalised gait data with finite element models will not only allow us to study changes in motion/movement, but also their effects on critical internal structures, such as the femur. However, previous studies have been hampered by the small sample size and the lack of fully personalised data in order to construct the coupled model. Therefore, the aim of this study was to build a pipeline for a fully personalised multiscale (body-organ level) model to investigate the strain levels at the femoral neck during a normal gait cycle. Five postmenopausal women were included in this study. The CT and MRI scans of the lower limb, and gait data were collected for all participants. Muscle forces derived from the body level musculoskeletal models were used as boundary constraints on the finite element femur models. Principal strains were estimated at the femoral neck region during a full gait cycle. Considerable variation was found in the predicted peak strain among individuals with mean peak first principal strain of 0.24% ± 0.11% and mean third principal strain of -0.29% ± 0.24%. For four individuals, two overall peaks of the maximum strains were found to occur when both feet were in contact with the floor, while one individual had one peak at the toe-off phase. Both the joint contact forces and the muscular forces were found to substantially influence the loading at the femoral neck. A higher correlation was found between the predicted peak strains and the gluteus medius (R2 ranged between 0.95 and 0.99) than the hip joint contact forces (R2 ranged between 0.63 and 0.96). Therefore, the current findings suggest that personal variations are substantial, and hence it is important to consider multiple subjects before deriving general conclusions for a target population.

IMPORTANCE: The benefits of vitamin D, omega-3 fatty acids, and exercise in disease prevention remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To test whether vitamin D, omega-3s, and a strength-training exercise program, alone or in combination, improved 6 health outcomes among older adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial randomized clinical trial among 2157 adults aged 70 years or older who had no major health events in the 5 years prior to enrollment and had sufficient mobility and good cognitive status. Patients were recruited between December 2012 and November 2014, and final follow-up was in November 2017. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to 3 years of intervention in 1 of the following 8 groups: 2000 IU/d of vitamin D(3), 1 g/d of omega-3s, and a strength-training exercise program (n = 264); vitamin D(3) and omega-3s (n = 265); vitamin D(3) and exercise (n = 275); vitamin D(3) alone (n = 272); omega-3s and exercise (n = 275); omega-3s alone (n = 269); exercise alone (n = 267); or placebo (n = 270). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The 6 primary outcomes were change in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), and incidence rates (IRs) of nonvertebral fractures and infections over 3 years. Based on multiple comparisons of 6 primary end points, 99% confidence intervals are presented and P

Fractures due to osteoporosis represent a serious burden on patients and healthcare systems. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the anabolic agent abaloparatide (ABL) for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk for fracture.A literature review was conducted using PubMed to identify articles focused on ABL published prior to February 10, 2020, using the search term "abaloparatide".ABL, a synthetic analog of human parathyroid hormone-related protein, increased bone mineral density (BMD), improved bone microarchitecture, and increased bone strength in preclinical and clinical studies. The pivotal phase 3 trial ACTIVE and its extension (ACTIVExtend) demonstrated the efficacy of initial treatment with ABL for 18 months followed by sequential treatment with alendronate (ALN) for an additional 24 months to reduce the risk of vertebral, nonvertebral, clinical, and major osteoporotic fractures and to increase BMD in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. Discontinuations from ACTIVE were slightly more common in ABL-treated patients due to dizziness, palpitations, nausea, and headache.ABL is an effective and well-tolerated treatment for women with postmenopausal osteoporosis at high risk for fracture. Its therapeutic effects are sustained with subsequent ALN therapy.

OBJECTIVE: High bone mass (HBM) is associated with an increased prevalence of radiographic knee OA (kOA), characterized by osteophytosis. We aimed to determine if progression of radiographic kOA, and its sub-phenotypes, is increased in HBM and whether observed changes are clinically relevant.DESIGN: A cohort with and without HBM (L1 and/or total hip bone mineral density Z-score≥+3.2) had knee radiographs collected at baseline and 8-year follow-up. Sub-phenotypes were graded using the OARSI atlas. Medial/lateral tibial/femoral osteophyte and medial/lateral joint space narrowing (JSN) grades were summed and Δosteophytes, ΔJSN derived. Pain, function and stiffness were quantified using the WOMAC questionnaire. Associations between HBM status and sub-phenotype progression were determined using multivariable linear/poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, height, baseline sub-phenotype grade, menopause, education and total body fat mass (TBFM). Generalized estimating equations accounted for individual-level clustering.RESULTS: 169 individuals had repeated radiographs, providing 330 knee images; 63% had HBM, 73% were female, mean (SD) age was 58 (12) years. Whilst HBM was not clearly associated with overall Kellgren-Lawrence measured progression (RR = 1.55 [0.56.4.32]), HBM was positively associated with both Δosteophytes and ΔJSN individually (adjusted mean differences between individuals with and without HBM 0.45 [0.01.0.89] and 0.15 [0.01.0.29], respectively). HBM individuals had higher WOMAC knee pain scores (β = 7.42 [1.17.13.66]), largely explained by adjustment for osteophyte score (58% attenuated) rather than JSN (30% attenuated) or TBFM (16% attenuated). The same pattern was observed for symptomatic stiffness and functional limitation.CONCLUSIONS: HBM is associated with osteophyte progression, which appears to contribute to increased reported pain, stiffness and functional loss.

Objectives Emerging evidence has indicated a role for pharmacologic agents in the primary prevention of osteoporotic fracture, but have not yet been systematically reviewed for meta-analysis. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of pharmacologic interventions in reducing fracture risk and increasing bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal women with osteopenia or osteoporosis but without prevalent fragility fracture. Method The Medline, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases were searched from inception to September 30, 2019. Only randomized placebo-controlled trials evaluating postmenopausal women with −1.0 > bone mineral density (BMD) T-score > −2.5 (low bone mass) and those with BMD T-score ≤ −2.5 (osteoporosis) but without baseline fractures, who were receiving anti-osteoporotic agents, providing quantitative outcomes data and evaluating risk of vertebral and/or non-vertebral fragility fracture at follow-up. The PRISMA guidelines were followed, applying a random-effects model. The primary endpoint was the effect of anti-osteoporotic regimens in reducing the incidence of vertebral fractures. Secondary endpoints were percentage changes in baseline BMD at the lumbar spine and total hip at 1 and 2 years follow up. Results Full-text review of 144 articles yielded, 20 for meta-analysis. Bisphosphonates reduced the risk of vertebral fracture (pooled OR = 0.50, 95%CIs = 0.36–0.71) and significantly increased lumbar spine BMD after 1 year, by 4.42% vs placebo (95%CIs = 3.70%–5.14%). At the hip, this value was 2.94% (95%CIs = 2.13%–3.75%). Overall results of limited studies for non-bisphosphonate drugs showed increased BMD and raloxifene significantly decreases the risk of subsequent clinical vertebral fractures. Conclusion The bisphosphonates are efficacious and most evident for the primary prevention of osteoporotic vertebral fractures, reducing their incidence and improving BMD in postmenopausal women with osteopenia or osteoporosis., Highlights • Bisphosphonates reduced the risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women with osteopenia or osteoporosis but without fracture. • Bisphosphonates increased BMD in postmenopausal women with osteopenia or osteoporosis but without fracture. • Limited studies for non-bisphosphonate drugs showed increased BMD in postmenopausal women with osteopenia or osteoporosis but without fracture. • Raloxifene decreased the risk of clinical vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteopenia or osteoporosis but without fracture.

Summary Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Singapore using FRAX paths can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low risk. Purpose Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have been based historically on the measurement of bone mineral density. The development of FRAX® has permitted a more accurate assessment of fracture risk. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women selected for treatment in Singapore based on FRAX. Methods The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Singapore. The methodology was applied to women age 50 years or more drawn from the population-based Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) cohort. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from Chinese cohorts from Hong Kong. Results Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.9% at the age of 50 years increasing to 32% at the age of 90 years. A total of 1927 of 29,323 women (7%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 3019 women (10.3%) would be eligible for treatment on the basis of age-dependent thresholds. The mean BMD T-score of women so selected was −2.94. Conclusion Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Singapore to help guide decisions about treatment.

Summary\ud \ud We identified large between-ethnicity calibration differences in the Canadian FRAX® tool which substantially overestimated the major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) risk in Asian women and Black women, and overestimated hip fracture risk in Asian women.\ud \ud \ud Purpose\ud \ud FRAX® is calibrated using population-specific fracture and mortality data. The need for FRAX to accommodate ethnic diversity within a country is uncertain. We addressed this question using the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry and self-reported ethnicity.\ud \ud \ud Methods\ud \ud The study population was women aged 40 years or older with baseline FRAX assessments (Canadian and other ethnic calculators), fracture outcomes, and self-reported ethnicity (White N = 68,907 [referent], Asian N = 1910, Black N = 356). Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for time to MOF and hip fracture were estimated. We examined candidate variables from DXA that might contribute to ethnic differences including skeletal size, hip axis length (HAL), trabecular bone score (TBS), and estimated body composition.\ud \ud \ud Results\ud \ud Adjusted for baseline risk using the Canadian FRAX tool with BMD, Asian women compared with White women were at much lower risk for MOF (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.35–0.59) and hip fracture (0.16, 95% CI 0.08–0.34). Black women were also at lower MOF risk (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.32–1.00); there were no hip fractures. The US ethnic-specific FRAX calculators accounted for most of the between-ethnicity differences in MOF risk (86% for Asian, 92% for Black) but only partially accounted for lower hip fracture risk in Asian women (40%). The candidate variables explained only a minority of the effect of ethnicity. Gradient of risk in analyses was similar (p-interactions ethnicity*FRAX non-significant).\ud \ud \ud Conclusions\ud \ud We identified significant ethnic differences in performance of the Canadian FRAX tool with fracture probability overestimated among Asian and Black women. The US ethnic calculators helped to address this discrepancy for MOF risk assessment, but not for hip fracture risk among Asian women.

Fragility fractures due to osteoporosis are common and are associated with significant clinical, personal, and economic burden. Even after a fragility fracture, osteoporosis remains widely underdiagnosed and undertreated. Common fracture risk assessment tools, such as FRAX1 and Garvan,2 confer risk over the long term but do not provide short-term risk estimates necessary to identify very high-risk patients likely to fracture in the next 1–2 years. Furthermore, these tools utilize cross-sectional data representing a subset of all available clinical risk factors for risk prediction. Thus, these methods are generalized across patient populations and may not fully utilize patient histories commonly found in electronic health records (EHRs) that contain temporal information for thousands of unique features. The Optum® de-identified EHR dataset (2007–2018) provides an opportunity to use historical medical data to generate short-term, personalized fracture risk predictions for individual patients. We used the Optum® dataset to develop Crystal Bone, a method that applies machine learning techniques commonly used in natural language processing to the temporal nature of patient histories in order to predict fracture risk over a 1- to 2-year timeframe. Specifically, we repurposed deep-learning models typically applied to language-based prediction tasks in which the goal is to learn the meanings of words and sentences to classify them. Crystal Bone uses context-based embedding techniques to learn an equivalent “semantic” meaning of various medical events. Similar to how language models predict the next word in a given sentence or the topic of an overall document, Crystal Bone can predict that a patient’s future trajectory may contain a fracture or that the “signature” of the patient’s overall journey is similar to that of a typical fracture patient. We applied Crystal Bone to two datasets, one enriched for fracture patients and one representative of a typical hospital system. In both datasets, when predicting likelihood of fracture in the next 1–2 years, Crystal Bone had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) score ranging from 72% to 83% on a test (hold-out) dataset. These results suggest performance similar to that of FRAX and Garvan, which have 10-year fracture risk prediction AUROC scores of 64.4% +/- 3.7%.3 Our results suggest that it is possible to use each patient’s unique medical history as it changes over time to predict patients at risk for fracture in 1–2 years. Furthermore, it is theoretically possible to integrate a model like Crystal Bone directly into an EHR system, enabling “hands-off” fracture risk prediction, which could lead to improved identification of patients at very high risk for fracture. 1Kanis JA, Osteoporos Int. 2012;23:2239–56. 2Rubin KH, J Bone Miner Res. 2013;28:1701–17. 3Leslie WD, Osteoporos Int. 2014;25:1–21.

A major objective of fracture risk assessment is to enable the targeting of interventions to those at need and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low risk of fracture. Several risk prediction models have been developed, but the most widely used is the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). FRAX is a computer‐based algorithm that is intended for primary care, calculates fracture probability from easily obtained clinical risk factors in men aged 40 years or more and postmenopausal women. Fracture probability is computed taking into account both the risk of fracture and the risk of death. The use of clinical risk factors alone provides a gradient of risk that lies between 1.4 and 2.1, depending upon age and the type of fracture predicted. FRAX should not be considered as a gold standard in patient assessment, but rather as a reference platform. FRAX has been recommended as a screening tool to detect osteoporosis.

Background Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)—a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture—can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program. Methods and findings A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed “gSOS”, and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N = 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)–based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r2 = 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk. Conclusions Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention., Vincenzo Forgetta and colleagues investigate possible utility of genetic information in assessing fracture risk., Author summary Why was this study done? Osteoporosis screening identifies only a small proportion of the screened population to be eligible for intervention. The prediction of heritable risk factors using polygenic risk scores could decrease the number of screened individuals by reassuring those with low genetic risk. We investigated whether the genetic prediction of heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)—a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture—could be incorporated into an established screening guideline to identify individuals at low risk for osteoporosis. What did the researchers do and find? Using UK Biobank, we developed a polygenic risk score (gSOS) consisting of 21,717 genetic variants that was strongly correlated with SOS (r2 = 23.2%). Using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical assessment guidelines in 5 validation cohorts, we estimate that reassuring individuals with a high gSOS, rather than doing further assessments, could reduce the number of clinical-risk-factor-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) tests and bone-density-measurement-based FRAX tests by 37% and 41%, respectively, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention. What do these findings mean? We show that genetic pre-screening could reduce the number of screening tests needed to identify individuals at risk of osteoporotic fractures. Therefore, the potential exists to improve the efficiency of osteoporosis screening programs without large losses in sensitivity or specificity to identify individuals who should receive an intervention. Further translational studies are needed to test the clinical applications of this polygenic risk score; however, our work shows how such scores could be tested in the clinic.

Measures of muscle mass, strength, and function predict risk of incident fractures, but it is not known whether this risk information is additive to that from FRAX (fracture risk assessment tool) probability. In the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts (Sweden, Hong Kong, United States), we investigated whether measures of physical performance/appendicular lean mass (ALM) by DXA predicted incident fractures in older men, independently of FRAX probability. Baseline information included falls history, clinical risk factors for falls and fractures, femoral neck aBMD, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between time for five chair stands, walking speed over a 6 m distance, grip strength, ALM adjusted for body size (ALM/height2 ), FRAX probability (major osteoporotic fracture [MOF]) with or without femoral neck aBMD, available in a subset of n = 7531), and incident MOF (hip, clinical vertebral, wrist, or proximal humerus). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline, and are reported as hazard ratios (HRs) for first incident fracture per SD increment in predictor using meta-analysis. 5660 men in the United States (mean age 73.5 years), 2764 men in Sweden (75.4 years), and 1987 men in Hong Kong (72.4 years) were studied. Mean follow-up time was 8.7 to 10.9 years. Greater time for five chair stands was associated with greater risk of MOF (HR 1.26; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.34), whereas greater walking speed (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.90), grip strength (HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.82), and ALM/height2 (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.90) were associated with lower risk of incident MOF. Associations remained largely similar after adjustment for FRAX, but associations between ALM/height2 and MOF were weakened (HR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99). Inclusion of femoral neck aBMD markedly attenuated the association between ALM/height2 and MOF (HR 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.10). Measures of physical performance predicted incident fractures independently of FRAX probability. Whilst the predictive value of ALM/height2 was substantially reduced by inclusion of aBMD requires further study, these findings support the consideration of physical performance in fracture risk assessment. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for fracture independent of FRAX (fracture risk assessment) probability. We directly compared four proposed methods to improve the performance of FRAX for type 2 diabetes by: (1) including the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) input to FRAX; (2) making a trabecular bone score (TBS) adjustment to FRAX; (3) reducing the femoral neck T-score input to FRAX by 0.5 SD; and (4) increasing the age input to FRAX by 10 years. We examined major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and hip fractures (HFs) over a mean of 8.3 years observation among 44,543 women and men 40 years of age or older (4136 with diabetes) with baseline lumbar spine and hip DXA from 1999 through 2016. Controlled for unadjusted FRAX probability, diabetes was associated with an increased risk for MOFs and HFs. All four FRAX adjustments attenuated the effect of diabetes, but a residual effect of diabetes was seen on MOF risk after TBS adjustment, and on HF risk after the RA and TBS adjustments. Among those with diabetes, unadjusted FRAX risk underestimated MOF (observed/predicted ratio 1.15; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.28), but this was no longer significant after applying the diabetes adjustments. HF risk was more severely underestimated (observed/predicted ratio 1.85; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.20) and was only partially corrected with the diabetes adjustments (still significant for the RA and TBS adjustments). Among those with diabetes, there was moderate reclassification based upon a fixed MOF cut-off of 20% (4.1% to 7.1%) or fixed HF cut-off of 3% (5.7% to 16.5%). Net reclassification improvement increased for MOF with each of the diabetes adjustments (range 3.9% to 5.6% in the diabetes subgroup). In conclusion, each of the proposed methods for addressing limitations in the ability of FRAX to assess fracture risk in individuals with diabetes was found to improve performance, though no single method was optimal in all settings. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Physical Performance Or Function, But Not Appendicular Lean Mass, Predict Incident Fractures Independently Of FRAX Probability And BMD : Results From The Osteoporotic Fractures In Men (MROS) Cohort