Search

Background: Perioperative atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) are common complications after noncardiac surgery. Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of both disorders. The COP-AF trial tests the hypothesis that colchicine reduces the incidence of perioperative AF and MINS in patients undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery. Design: The 'COlchicine for the Prevention of Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation' (COP-AF) trial is an international, blinded, randomized trial that compares colchicine to placebo in patients aged at least 55 years and undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery with general anesthesia. Exclusion criteria include a history of AF and a contraindication to colchicine (e.g., severe renal dysfunction). Oral colchicine at a dose of 0.5 mg or matching placebo is given within 4 hours before surgery. Thereafter, patients receive colchicine 0.5 mg or placebo twice daily for a total of 10 days. The two independent co-primary outcomes are clinically important perioperative AF (including atrial flutter) and MINS during 14 days of follow-up. The main safety outcomes are sepsis or infection and non-infectious diarrhea. We aim to enroll 3,200 patients from approximately 40 sites across 11 countries to have at least 80% power for the independent evaluation of the two co-primary outcomes. Summary: COP-AF is a large randomized and blinded trial designed to determine whether colchicine reduces the risk of perioperative AF or MINS in patients who have major noncardiac thoracic surgery. Population Health Research Institute

Patients with heart failure (HF) and a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who experience worsening HF (WHF) events are at increased risk of adverse outcomes and experience significant morbidity and mortality. We herein describe the epidemiology of these patients and identify those potentially eligible for vericiguat therapy in this population-based study.This retrospective cohort study included hospitalized or emergency department patients with a primary diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of less than 45% diagnosed between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2019 in Alberta, Canada, with follow-up to March 31, 2020. Inclusion criteria from the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection (VICTORIA) trial were applied to explore eligibility for vericiguat. Among 25,629 patients with HF and LVEF data, 9948 (38.8%) had HFrEF, of which 5259 (52.8%) experienced WHF at some point during a median 5.8 years of follow-up, and 38.3% of those met the vericiguat trial eligibility criteria. Compared with patients with HFrEF without WHF, those with WHF were older, with more comorbidities, worse renal function, and similar LVEF status, but greater use of HF medications at baseline. At the time of WHF, 27% of those with HFrEF and WHF were on triple therapy, 50.6% were on dual therapy, and 15.4% were on monotherapy. All-cause mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization at 1-year of follow-up were higher in the HFrEF with WHF cohort compared with HFrEF without WHF (adjusted hazard ratios of 1.92 and 1.51, respectively, both P.0001).Approximately one-half of patients with HFrEF experienced WHF over the long-term follow-up. Most were not on triple therapy, highlighting the underuse of the existing standard-of-care treatments and opportunities for application of newer therapies; more than one-third of patients with HFrEF may be eligible for vericiguat.Among patients with heart failure (HF), those who experience worsening HF (WHF) are at increased risk of adverse outcomes. A few new therapies, including vericiguat, have emerged recently for patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction. However, the epidemiology, treatment patterns, and outcomes of patients with WHF in large representative populations is unclear. In the current study, approximately one-half of the patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction experienced WHF and 38.3% were potentially eligible for vericiguat therapy. The guideline-recommended therapies were under-utilized among patients with WHF, which highlights the need for initiatives to address this care gap.

There is a paucity of the literature on the relationship between frailty and excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The entire community-dwelling adult population of Ontario, Canada, as of January 1st, 2018, was identified using the Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team (CANHEART) cohort. Residents of long-term care facilities were excluded. Frailty was categorized through the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG® System) frailty indicator. Follow-up was until December 31st, 2020, with March 11th, 2020, indicating the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using multivariable Cox models with patient age as the timescale, we determined the relationship between frailty status and pandemic period on all-cause mortality. We evaluated the modifier effect of frailty using both stratified models as well as incorporating an interaction between frailty and the pandemic period.We identified 11,481,391 persons in our cohort, of whom 3.2% were frail based on the ACG indicator. Crude mortality increased from 0.75 to 0.87% per 100 person years from the pre- to post-pandemic period, translating to ~ 13,800 excess deaths among the community-dwelling adult population of Ontario (HR 1.11 95% CI 1.09-1.11). Frailty was associated with a statistically significant increase in all-cause mortality (HR 3.02, 95% CI 2.99-3.06). However, all-cause mortality increased similarly during the pandemic in frail (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.16) and non-frail (aHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.13-1.17) persons.Although frailty was associated with greater mortality, frailty did not modify the excess mortality associated with the pandemic.

The frequency of readmissions after COVID-19 hospitalizations is uncertain, as is whether current readmission prediction equations are useful for discharge risk stratification of COVID-19 survivors or for comparing among hospitals. We sought to determine the frequency and predictors of death or unplanned readmission after a COVID-19 hospital discharge.We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults (≥ 18 yr) who were discharged alive from hospital after a nonpsychiatric, nonobstetric, acute care admission for COVID-19 between Jan. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021, in Alberta and Ontario.Of 843 737 individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction during the study period, 46 412 (5.5%) were adults admitted to hospital within 14 days of their positive test. Of these, 8496 died in hospital and 34 846 were discharged alive (30 336 discharged after an index admission of ≤ 30 d and 4510 discharged after an admission30 d). One in 9 discharged patients died or were readmitted within 30 days after discharge (3173 [10.5%] of those with stay ≤ 30 d and 579 [12.8%] of those with stay30 d). The LACE score (length of stay, acuity, Charlson Comorbidity Index and number of emergency visits in previous 6 months) for predicting urgent readmission or death within 30 days had a c-statistic of 0.60 in Alberta and 0.61 in Ontario; inclusion of sex, discharge locale, deprivation index and teaching hospital status in the model improved the c-statistic to 0.73.Death or readmission after discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalization is common and had a similar frequency in Alberta and Ontario. Risk stratification and interinstitutional comparisons of outcomes after hospital admission for COVID-19 should include sex, discharge locale and socioeconomic measures, in addition to the LACE variables.

Dietary restriction of sodium has been suggested to prevent fluid overload and adverse outcomes for patients with heart failure. We designed the Study of Dietary Intervention under 100 mmol in Heart Failure (SODIUM-HF) to test whether or not a reduction in dietary sodium reduces the incidence of future clinical events.SODIUM-HF is an international, open-label, randomised, controlled trial that enrolled patients at 26 sites in six countries (Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and New Zealand). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, with chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class 2-3), and receiving optimally tolerated guideline-directed medical treatment. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), using a standard number generator and varying block sizes of two, four, or six, stratified by site, to either usual care according to local guidelines or a low sodium diet of less than 100 mmol (ie,1500 mg/day). The primary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular-related admission to hospital, cardiovascular-related emergency department visit, or all-cause death within 12 months in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (ie, all randomly assigned patients). Safety was assessed in the ITT population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012179, and is closed to accrual.Between March 24, 2014, and Dec 9, 2020, 806 patients were randomly assigned to a low sodium diet (n=397) or usual care (n=409). Median age was 67 years (IQR 58-74) and 268 (33%) were women and 538 (66%) were men. Between baseline and 12 months, the median sodium intake decreased from 2286 mg/day (IQR 1653-3005) to 1658 mg/day (1301-2189) in the low sodium group and from 2119 mg/day (1673-2804) to 2073 mg/day (1541-2900) in the usual care group. By 12 months, events comprising the primary outcome had occurred in 60 (15%) of 397 patients in the low sodium diet group and 70 (17%) of 409 in the usual care group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·89 [95% CI 0·63-1·26]; p=0·53). All-cause death occurred in 22 (6%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 17 (4%) in the usual care group (HR 1·38 [0·73-2·60]; p=0·32), cardiovascular-related hospitalisation occurred in 40 (10%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 51 (12%) patients in the usual care group (HR 0·82 [0·54-1·24]; p=0·36), and cardiovascular-related emergency department visits occurred in 17 (4%) patients in the low sodium diet group and 15 (4%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·21 [0·60-2·41]; p=0·60). No safety events related to the study treatment were reported in either group.In ambulatory patients with heart failure, a dietary intervention to reduce sodium intake did not reduce clinical events.Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the University Hospital Foundation, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and Health Research Council of New Zealand.

In Canada, published outcome data for COVID-19 come largely from the first 2 waves of the pandemic. We examined changes in demographics and 30-day outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first 3 pandemic waves in Alberta and Ontario; for wave 3, we compared outcomes between those infected with a variant of concern and those infected with the original "wild-type" SARS-CoV-2.We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked health care data sets in Alberta and Ontario. We identified all-cause hospitalizations or deaths within 30 days after a positive result on a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 in individuals of any age between Mar. 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, with genomic confirmation of variants of concern. We compared outcomes in wave 3 (February 2021 to June 2021) with outcomes in waves 1 and 2 combined (March 2020 to January 2021) after adjusting for age, sex and Charlson Comorbidity Index score. Using wave 3 data only, we compared outcomes by vaccination status and whether or not the individual was infected with a variant of concern.Compared to those infected with SARS-CoV-2 during waves 1 and 2 (We observed a shift among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 toward younger patients with fewer comorbidities, a shorter length of hospital stay and lower mortality risk as the pandemic evolved in Alberta and Ontario; however, infection with a variant of concern was associated with a substantially higher risk of hospitalization or death. As variants of concern emerge, ongoing monitoring of disease expression and outcomes among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is important to understand the phenotypes of COVID-19 and the anticipated burdens for the health care system.

Pandemics may promote hospital avoidance, and added precautions may exacerbate treatment delays for medical emergencies such as stroke. We sought to evaluate ischemic stroke presentations, management and outcomes during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.We conducted a population-based study, using linked administrative and stroke registry data from Alberta to identify all patients presenting with stroke before the pandemic (Jan. 1, 2016 to Feb. 27, 2020) and in 5 periods over the first pandemic year (Feb. 28, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021), reflecting changes in case numbers and restrictions. We evaluated changes in hospital admissions, emergency department presentations, thrombolysis, endovascular therapy, workflow times and outcomes.The study included 19 531 patients in the prepandemic period and 4900 patients across the 5 pandemic periods. Presentations for ischemic stroke dropped in the first pandemic wave (weekly adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50 to 0.59). Population-level incidence of thrombolysis (adjusted IRR 0.50, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.62) and endovascular therapy (adjusted IRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.84) also decreased during the first wave, but proportions of patients presenting with stroke who received acute therapies did not decline. Rates of patients presenting with stroke did not return to prepandemic levels, even during a lull in COVID-19 cases between the first 2 waves of the pandemic, and fell further in subsequent waves. In-hospital delays in thrombolysis or endovascular therapy occurred in several pandemic periods. The likelihood of in-hospital death increased in Wave 2 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.74) and Wave 3 (adjusted OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.00). Out-of-hospital deaths, as a proportion of stroke-related deaths, rose during 4 of 5 pandemic periods.The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic saw persistently reduced rates of patients presenting with ischemic stroke, recurrent treatment delays and higher risk of in-hospital death in later waves. These findings support public health messaging that encourages care-seeking for medical emergencies during pandemic periods, and stroke systems should re-evaluate protocols to mitigate inefficiencies.

Heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) is associated with a favourable prognosis compared with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (EF). We assessed whether left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) trajectory can be used to identify groups of patients with HFmrEF who have different clinical outcomes in a large retrospective study of patients with serial imaging.Patients with HF and ≥2 echocardiograms performed ≥6 months apart were included if the LVEF measured 40-49% on the second study. Patients were classified as HFmrEF-Increasing if LVEF had increased ≥10% (n = 450), HFmrEF-Decreasing if LVEF had decreased ≥10% (n = 512), or HFmrEF-Stable if they did not meet other criteria (n = 389). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization after the second echocardiogram. Associations with time to first event were assessed with multivariable Cox analyses adjusted for age, co-morbidities, and medications. In total, 1351 patients with HFmrEF (median age 74, 64.2% male) were included with 28.8% exhibiting stable LVEF. During median follow-up of 15.3 months, the composite outcome occurred in 811 patients. During follow-up, patients with HFmrEF-Increasing were less likely to experience the primary outcome [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.88, P 0.001] compared with HFmrEF-Stable. Patients with HFmrEF-Decreasing were more likely to experience the composite outcome in unadjusted analyses (unadjusted HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.40, P = 0.040) but not adjusted analyses (adjusted HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.98-1.37, P = 0.092). Associations with death or HF hospitalizations were similar (HFmrEF-Increasing: adjusted HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.88, P = 0.005; HFmrEF-Decreasing: adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.01-1.44, P = 0.044). Patients with HFmrEF-Decreasing had a similar risk of the composite outcome as patients with HF with reduced EF (adjusted HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.89-1.20, P = 0.670). Patients with HFmrEF-Increasing were less likely to experience the composite outcome compared with patients with HF with preserved EF (adjusted HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.87, P 0.001).Amongst patients with HFmrEF, those exhibiting positive LVEF trajectory were less likely to experience adverse outcomes after correcting for important confounders including medical therapy. Categorizing HFmrEF patients based on LVEF trajectory provides meaningful clinical information and may assist clinicians with management decisions.

Background: Data are limited data on the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and multimorbidity in contemporary cohorts of high-cost users (HCUs) in Canada.We examined the following: (i) the prevalence of CVD, with a comparison of total healthcare costs among HCUs with vs without CVD; (ii) the contribution of other comorbidities to costs among HCUs with CVD; and (iii) the trajectory of healthcare costs in the years before and after becoming an HCU. Methods: The study included adult Alberta patients in the Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canadian Institute for Health Information Dynamic Cohort of Complex, High System Users from 2011-2012 through 2014-2015. We examined total healthcare costs, including hospital, ambulatory care, physician services, and drugs. Results: Among 88,536 HCUs, 23.4% had no CVD, 28.9% were hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of CVD, and 47.7% were hospitalized with a secondary diagnosis of CVD. Total healthcare costs were $2.0 billion (20.4% non-hospital costs), $2.8 billion (24.1% non-hospital costs), and $4.9 billion (19.8% non-hospital costs), respectively, in the 3 groups. Many HCUs with CVD were frail (74.2%) and many had diabetes (33.8%) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (27.9%), which contributed to higher costs and mortality. Healthcare expenditures in HCUs with CVD were several times higher than per capita health expenditures in the years prior to, and following, their inclusion in the dynamic HCU cohort. Conclusions: CVD is very common in HCUs of healthcare. HCUs with CVD have high rates of frailty and multimorbidity. Further research is needed to identify and intervene earlier, in order to flatten the cost curve in these complex patients. Résumé: Introduction: Les données sur la prévalence des maladies cardiovasculaires (MCV) et de la multimorbidité au sein des cohortes contemporaines de grands utilisateurs (GU) du Canada sont limitées. Nous avons examiné ce qui suit : (i) la prévalence des MCV en comparant les coûts totaux des soins de santé entre les GU atteints de MCV et les GU non atteints de MCV; (ii) la contribution des autres comorbidités aux coûts liés aux GU atteints de MCV; (iii) la trajectoire des coûts des soins de santé dans les années avant et après avoir été considérés comme un GU. Méthodes: L’étude portait sur des patients adultes de l’Alberta de la Cohorte dynamique de grands utilisateurs du système de santé aux besoins complexes de 2011-2012 à 2014-2015 des Instituts de recherche en santé du Canada et de l’Institut canadien d’information sur la santé. Nous avons examiné les coûts totaux des soins de santé, notamment les coûts hospitaliers, les coûts des soins ambulatoires, des services médicaux et des médicaments. Résultats: Parmi les 88 536 GU, 23,4 % n’avaient pas de MCV, 28,9 % étaient hospitalisés et avaient un diagnostic principal de MCV, et 47,7 % étaient hospitalisés et avaient un diagnostic secondaire de MCV. Les coûts totaux des soins de santé des 3 groupes étaient respectivement de 2,0 G$ (20,4 % de coûts non hospitaliers), 2,8 G$ (24,1 % de coûts non hospitaliers) et 4,9 G$ (19,8 % de coûts non hospitaliers). Plusieurs GU atteints de MCV étaient fragiles (74,2 %) et beaucoup avaient le diabète (33,8 %) ou une maladie pulmonaire obstructive chronique (27,9 %), qui contribuaient à des coûts et à une mortalité plus élevés. Les dépenses de santé par personne liées aux GU atteints de MCV étaient beaucoup plus élevées que les dépenses de santé par personne dans les années qui précédaient ou suivaient leur inclusion dans la cohorte dynamique de GU atteints de MCV. Conclusions: Les GU de soins de santé sont très fréquemment atteints de MCV. Les GU atteints de MCV présentent des taux de fragilité et de multimorbidité élevés. D’autres recherches sont nécessaires pour cerner et intervenir plus tôt afin d’aplatir la courbe des coûts chez ces patients aux besoins complexes.

Background Despite the improved awareness of cardiac amyloidosis among clinicians, its incidence and prevalence is not well-described in a community setting. We sought to investigate the incidence and prevalence of cardiac amyloidosis in the community. Methods and Results In the adult population of Alberta, we examined 3 cohorts: (1) probable cases of cardiac amyloidosis: the presence of physician-assigned diagnosis of amyloidosis (International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 code E85; ICD-9 277.3) and 1 or more health care encounter for heart failure (HF) (ICD-10 I50; ICD-9 428); (2) possible cardiac amyloidosis: the presence of clinical phenotypes suggestive of amyloidosis; and (3) a comparator HF cohort without amyloidosis. Between 2004 and 2018, 982 of the 145,329 patients with HF were identified as probable cardiac amyloidosis. During the same period, the incidence rates of probable cardiac amyloidosis increased from 1.38 to 3.69 per 100,000 person-years and the prevalence rates increased from 3.42 to 14.85 per 100,000 person-years (Ptrend Conclusions The incidence and prevalence of cardiac amyloidosis has increased over the last decade. Given the advent of new therapies for cardiac amyloidosis and considering their high cost, it is imperative to devise strategies to screen, identify, and track patients with cardiac amyloidosis from administrative databases.

The extent to which the introduction of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) influenced treatment patterns in frail and nonfrail patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is unclear.This was a retrospective cohort study of all Albertans 20 years or older who were discharged from an emergency department or hospital with a new diagnosis of NVAF between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2019. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score was used to define frailty and the CHAAmong 75,796 patients (median age, 75 years; 45% female) with a new diagnosis of NVAF, 17,143 (22.6%) were frail. Although guideline criteria for anticoagulation were more commonly met by frail patients than nonfrail patients (92.1% vs 74.2%, for CHAAlthough they stand to potentially derive greater benefits from anticoagulation, frail patients were less likely to receive an anticoagulant and, if anticoagulated, they were more likely to receive warfarin than a DOAC. The introduction of DOACs has increased anticoagulation rates but not resolved treatment gaps for frail patients with NVAF.

Background Because the impact of changes in how outpatient care was delivered during the COVID‐19 pandemic is uncertain, we designed this study to examine the frequency and type of outpatient visits between March 1, 2019 to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic) and from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (pandemic) and specifically compared outcomes after virtual versus in‐person outpatient visits during the pandemic. Methods and Results Population‐based retrospective cohort study of all 3.8 million adults in Alberta, Canada. We examined all physician visits and 30‐ and 90‐day outcomes, with a focus on those adults with the cardiovascular ambulatory‐care sensitive conditions heart failure, hypertension, and diabetes. Our primary outcome was emergency department visit or hospitalization, evaluated using survival analysis accounting for competing risk of death. Although in‐person outpatient visits decreased by 38.9% in the year after March 1, 2020 (10 142 184 versus 16 592 599 in the prior year), the introduction of virtual visits (7 152 147; 41.4% of total) meant that total outpatient visits increased by 4.1% in the first year of the pandemic for Albertan adults. Outpatient visit frequency (albeit 41.4% virtual, 58.6% in‐person) and prescribing patterns were stable in the first year after pandemic onset for patients with the cardiovascular ambulatory‐care sensitive conditions we examined, but laboratory test frequency declined by 20% (serum creatinine) to 47% (glycosylated hemoglobin). In the first year of the pandemic, virtual outpatient visits were associated with fewer subsequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations (compared with in‐person visits) for patients with heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85–0.96] at 30 days and 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92–1.00] at 90 days), hypertension (aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85–0.91] and 0.93 [95% CI, 0.91–0.95] at 30 and 90 days), or diabetes (aHR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.87–0.93] and 0.93 [95% CI, 0.91–0.95] at 30 and 90 days). Conclusions The adoption and rapid uptake of virtual outpatient care during the COVID‐19 pandemic did not negatively impact frequency of follow‐up, prescribing, or short‐term outcomes, and could have potentially positively impacted some of these for adults with heart failure, diabetes, or hypertension in a setting where there was an active reimbursement policy for virtual visits. Given declines in laboratory monitoring and screening activities, further research is needed to evaluate whether long‐term outcomes will differ.

The feasibility and value of linking electrocardiogram (ECG) data to longitudinal population-level administrative health data to facilitate the development of a learning healthcare system has not been fully explored. We developed ECG-based machine learning models to predict risk of mortality among patients presenting to an emergency department or hospital for any reason. Using the 12-lead ECG traces and measurements from 1,605,268 ECGs from 748,773 healthcare episodes of 244,077 patients (2007–2020) in Alberta, Canada, we developed and validated ResNet-based Deep Learning (DL) and gradient boosting-based XGBoost (XGB) models to predict 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality. The models for 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality were trained on 146,173, 141,072, and 111,020 patients and evaluated on 97,144, 89,379, and 55,650 patients, respectively. In the evaluation cohort, 7.6%, 17.3%, and 32.9% patients died by 30-days, 1-year, and 5-years, respectively. ResNet models based on ECG traces alone had good-to-excellent performance with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.838–0.848), 0.812 (0.808–0.816), and 0.798 (0.792–0.803) for 30-day, 1-year and 5-year prediction, respectively; and were superior to XGB models based on ECG measurements with AUROC of 0.782 (0.776–0.789), 0.784 (0.780–0.788), and 0.746 (0.740–0.751). This study demonstrates the validity of ECG-based DL mortality prediction models at the population-level that can be leveraged for prognostication at point of care.

Many health authorities differentiate hospitalizations in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 as being “for COVID-19” (due to direct manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection) versus being an “incidental” finding in someone admitted for an unrelated condition. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all SARS-CoV-2 infected patients hospitalized via 47 Canadian emergency departments, March 2020-July 2022 to determine whether hospitalizations with “incidental” SARS-CoV-2 infection are less of a burden to patients and the healthcare system. Using a priori standardized definitions applied to hospital discharge diagnoses in 14,290 patients, we characterized COVID-19 as (i) the “Direct” cause for the hospitalization (70%), (ii) a potential “Contributing” factor for the hospitalization (4%), or (iii) an “Incidental” finding that did not influence the need for admission (26%). The proportion of incidental SARS-CoV-2 infections rose fro 10% in Wave 1 to 41% during the Omicron wave. Patients with COVID-19 as the direct cause of hospitalization exhibited significantly longer LOS (mean 13.8 versus 12.1 days), were more likely to require critical care (22% versus 11%), receive COVID-19-specific therapies (55% versus 19%), and die (17% versus 9%), compared to patients with Incidental SARS-CoV-2 infections. However, patients hospitalized with incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection still exhibited substantial morbidity/mortality and hospital resource use.

The increasing burden of heart failure (HF) and emerging knowledge regarding chloride as a prognostic marker in HF have increased the interest in the pathophysiology and interactions of chloride abnormalities with HF-related factors and treatments. Chloride is among the major electrolytes that play a unique role in fluid homeostasis and is associated with cardiorenal and neurohormonal systems. This review elucidates the role of chloride in the pathophysiology of HF, evaluates the effects of treatment on chloride (eg, diuretic agents cause higher urinary chloride excretion and consequently serum hypochloremia), and discusses recent evidence for the association between chloride levels and mortality.

Background: Hospital readmissions are one of the costliest challenges facing healthcare systems, but conventional models fail to predict readmissions well. Many existing models use exclusively manually-engineered features, which are labor intensive and dataset-specific. Our objective was to develop and evaluate models to predict hospital readmissions using derived features that are automatically generated from longitudinal data using machine learning techniques. Methods: We studied patients discharged from acute care facilities in 2015 and 2016 in Alberta, Canada, excluding those who were hospitalized to give birth or for a psychiatric condition. We used population-level linked administrative hospital data from 2011 to 2017 to train prediction models using both manually derived features and features generated automatically from observational data. The target value of interest was 30-day all-cause hospital readmissions, with the success of prediction measured using the area under the curve (AUC) statistic. Results: Data from 428,669 patients (62% female, 38% male, 27% 65 years or older) were used for training and evaluating models: 24,974 (5.83%) were readmitted within 30 days of discharge for any reason. Patients were more likely to be readmitted if they utilized hospital care more, had more physician office visits, had more prescriptions, had a chronic condition, or were 65 years old or older. The LACE readmission prediction model had an AUC of 0.66 ± 0.0064 while the machine learning model’s test set AUC was 0.83 ± 0.0045, based on learning a gradient boosting machine on a combination of machine-learned and manually-derived features. Conclusion: Applying a machine learning model to the computer-generated and manual features improved prediction accuracy over the LACE model and a model that used only manually-derived features. Our model can be used to identify high-risk patients, for whom targeted interventions may potentially prevent readmissions.

There has been substantial excess morbidity and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, not all of which was directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and many non-COVID-19 deaths were cardiovascular. The indirect effects of the pandemic have been profound, resulting in a substantial rise in the burden of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors, both in individuals who survived SARS-CoV-2 infection and in people never infected. In this manuscript, we review the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on cardiovascular and cardiometabolic disease burden in COVID-19 survivors as well as the indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cardiovascular health of people who were never infected with SARS-CoV-2. We also examine the pandemic impacts on healthcare systems and particularly the care deficits caused (or exacerbated) by healthcare delayed or foregone during the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the consequences of (i) deferred/delayed acute care for urgent conditions, (ii) the shift to virtual provision of outpatient care, (iii) shortages of drugs and devices, and reduced access to (iv) diagnostic testing, (v) cardiac rehabilitation, and (vi) homecare services. We discuss the broader implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for cardiovascular health and cardiovascular practitioners as we move forward into the next phase of the pandemic.

Reduced-dose apixaban is recommended in patients fulfilling 2 of 3 criteria: age ≥80 years, body weight ≤60 kg, and serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dL. However, patient weight is often not available in electronic health data. We examined the validity of alternative definitions based on age and renal function alone using an observational dataset of patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease which included weight measurements.

Home blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring combined with case management leads to BP reductions in individuals with hypertension. However, its benefits are less clear in older (age ≥ 65 years) adults.Twelve-month, open-label, randomized trial of community-dwelling older adults comparing the combination of home BP telemonitoring (HBPM) and pharmacist-led case management, vs. enhanced usual care with HBPM alone. The primary outcome was the proportion achieving systolic BP targets on 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM). Changes in HBPM were also examined. Logistic and linear regressions were used for analyses, adjusted for baseline BP.Enrollment was stopped early due to coronavirus disease 2019. Participants randomized to intervention (n = 61) and control (n = 59) groups were mostly female (77%), with mean age 79.5 years. The adjusted odds ratio for ABPM BP target achievement was 1.48 (95% confidence interval 0.87-2.52, P = 0.15). At 12 months, the mean difference in BP changes between intervention and control groups was -1.6/-1.1 for ABPM (P-value 0.26 for systolic BP and 0.10 for diastolic BP), and -4.9/-3.1 for HBPM (P-value 0.04 for systolic BP and 0.01 for diastolic BP), favoring the intervention. Intervention group participants had hypotension (systolic BP 110) more frequently (21% vs. 5%, P = 0.009), but no differences in orthostatic symptoms, syncope, non-mechanical falls, or emergency department visits.Home BP telemonitoring and pharmacist case management did not improve achievement of target range ambulatory BP, but did reduce home BP. It did not result in major adverse consequences.

Background Oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy prevents morbidity and mortality in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation; whether location of diagnosis influences OAC uptake or adherence is unknown. Methods and Results Retrospective cohort study (2008–2019), identifying adults with incident nonvalvular atrial fibrillation across health care settings (emergency department, hospital, outpatient) at high risk of stroke. OAC uptake and adherence via proportion of days covered for direct OACs and time in therapeutic range for warfarin were measured. Proportion of days covered was categorized as low (0–39%), intermediate (40–79%), and high (80–100%). Warfarin control was defined as time in therapeutic range ≥65%. All‐cause mortality was examined at a 3‐year landmark. Among 75 389 patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (47.0% women, mean 77.4 years), 19.7% were diagnosed in the emergency department, 59.1% in the hospital, and 21.2% in the outpatient setting. Ninety‐day OAC uptake was 51.6% in the emergency department, 50.9% in the hospital, and 67.9% in the outpatient setting ( P P values for trend Conclusions Locale of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation diagnosis is associated with varying OAC uptake and adherence. Interventions specific to health care settings are needed to improve stroke prevention.

Virtual wards (VWs) include patient assessment in their homes by health care personnel and offer ongoing assessment and case management via home, telephone, and/or clinic visits. The association between VWs and patient outcomes during the transition from the hospital to home are unclear; earlier reviews on this topic have often conflated telemonitoring programs with VW models.To evaluate the use of VW transition systems for community-dwelling individuals after medical discharge.English-language articles indexed in PubMed or Cochrane and published between January 1, 2000, and June 15, 2021.Randomized clinical trials comparing VW care with usual postdischarge care. Studies were stratified by diagnosis.Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guideline, 2 reviewers independently identified studies and extracted data. DerSimonian-Laird inverse variance weighted random-effects models were used to compute relative risks (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences for continuous outcomes.All-cause mortality, hospital readmissions, emergency department visits, health care costs, readmission length of stay, quality of life, and functional status.Twenty-four randomized clinical trials (11 in patients with heart failure, 3 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 4 in patients at high-risk for readmission, and 6 in mixed patient populations) with 10 876 patients were included (20 more trials than earlier reviews). In patients with heart failure, VWs were associated with fewer deaths (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97) and fewer readmissions (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.96). However, similar associations were not seen in randomized clinical trials enrolling patients with other diagnoses (RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.83-1.04 for mortality and RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.88-1.05 for readmissions). Across all studies, VWs were associated with fewer emergency department visits (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-0.98) and shorter readmission lengths of stay (mean difference, -1.94 days; 95% CI, -3.28 to -0.60 days). Three of 7 studies that evaluated health care expenses reported statistically significant lower costs with VW transition systems.Although postdischarge VW interventions appear to be associated with fewer subsequent emergency department visits, shorter readmission lengths of stay, and lower health care costs, fewer deaths and readmissions were seen only in trials enrolling patients with heart failure.

Aims This study aims to assess long‐term changes in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) together with echocardiographic markers of cardiac remodelling and their association with prognosis and patient‐reported quality of life (QoL). Methods and results We conducted a retrospective analysis of serial echocardiograms performed between January 2009 and December 2019 in 1089 patients (median age 63 years, 71.0% men) enrolled in the Mazankowski Heart Function Clinic Registry who had at least two echocardiograms separated by ≥12 months. We classified the patients into four subgroups by their baseline and LVEF trajectories: persistent heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (persistent HFrEF, n = 364), recovered ejection fraction (HFrecEF, n = 325), transient recovery in ejection fraction (HFtrecEF, n = 117), and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF, n = 283); 4490 echocardiograms were included in the present analysis, with 4.1 ± 1.8 echocardiograms available per patient during follow‐up. Reductions in echocardiographic markers of cardiac remodelling, including LVIDd [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75–2.86], LVIDs (aOR: 2.44, 95% CI 2.00–2.94), left ventricular mass index (aOR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.09–1.22), E/e′ ratio (aOR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.30), left atrial volume index (aOR: 1.10, 95% CI 1.03–1.16), along with an increase in the maximum recommended daily dose of renin‐angiotensin system inhibitors (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.07) and mineralocorticoid‐receptor antagonists (aOR: 1.06, 95% CI 1.01–1.11) at 2 years, strongly predicted the HFrecEF classification, which was further sustained at 5 years of follow‐up. However, changes in these parameters were mostly absent in patients experiencing only a transient recovery in LVEF (HFtrecEF), closely resembling patients with persistent HFrEF. In the multivariable analysis, HFrecEF patients had lower risk of all‐cause mortality alone [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 0.46, 95% CI 0.23–0.93], and composite all‐cause (aHR: 0.59, 95% CI 0.49–0.73), cardiovascular (aHR: 0.47, 95% CI 0.36–0.61), and heart failure (aHR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.35–0.70) related hospitalizations with mortality than patients with persistent HFrEF. QoL assessed through the shortened Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire‐12 at the end of follow‐up was greater in patients with HFrecEF by 5.2, 12.4, and 9.4 points than persistent HFrEF, HFtrecEF, and HFpEF, respectively. Conclusions Patients with HFrecEF experienced progressive normalization in echocardiographic markers of cardiac remodelling characterized by reductions in left ventricular dimensions and mass in tandem with reductions in left atrial volume and E/e′ ratio, which is associated with better prognosis and QoL.

To examine whether the EQ-5D-3L at the time of discharge from hospital provides additional prognostic information above the LACE index for 30-day post-discharge hospital readmission and to explore the association of EQ-5D-3L with readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and death within the same period. Using data (n = 495; mean age 62.9 years (SD 18.6), 50.5% female) from a prospective cohort study of patients discharged from medical wards at two university hospitals, the prognostic ability of EQ-5D-3L was examined using C-statistic, Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) Index, and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). The associations between EQ-5D-3L dimensions, total sum, index and VAS scores at the time of discharge and 30-day post-discharge ED visits, readmission, and readmission/death were examined using multivariate logistic regression. At the time of discharge, 58.6% of participants reported problems in mobility, 28.3% in self-care, 62.1% in usual activities, 62.7% in pain/discomfort, and 42.4% in anxiety/depression. Mean (SD) total sum score was 7.9 (2.0), index score was 0.69 (0.21), and VAS score was 63.7 (18.4). In adjusted analyses, mobility, self-care, usual activities, and the total sum score were significantly associated with 30-day readmission and readmission/death. Differences in C-statistic for LACE readmission prediction models with and without EQ-5D-3L were small. AIC analysis suggests that readmission prediction models containing EQ-5D-3L dimensions or scores were more often preferred to those with the LACE index only. IDI analysis indicates that the discrimination slope of readmission prediction models is significantly improved with the addition of mobility, self-care, or the total sum score of the EQ-5D-3L. The EQ-5D-3L, especially the mobility and self-care dimensions as well as the total sum score, improves 30-day readmission prediction of the LACE index and is associated with 30-day readmissions or readmissions/death.

COVID-19 and our public health responses to the pandemic may have far-reaching implications for cardiovascular risk affecting the general population and not just survivors of COVID-19. In this narrative review, we discuss how the pandemic may impact general cardiovascular risk for years to come, and explore the mitigating potential of telehealth interventions. From a health care perspective, the shift away from in-person office visits may have led many to defer routine risk factor management and may have had unforeseen effects on continuity of care and adherence. Fear of COVID-19 has led some patients to forego care for acute cardiovascular events. Curtailment of routine outpatient laboratory testing has likely delayed intensification of risk-factor modifying medical therapy, and drug shortages and mis-information may have negatively impacted adherence to antihypertensive, glucose-lowering, and lipid-lowering agents. From a societal perspective, the unprecedented curtailment of social and economic activities has led to income loss, unemployment, social isolation, decreased physical activity, and increased frequency of depression and anxiety, all of which are known to be associated with worse cardiovascular risk-factor control and outcomes. We must embrace and evaluate measures to mitigate these potential harms to avoid an epidemic of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the coming years that could dwarf the initial health impacts of COVID-19., The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to worsen cardiovascular risk factor control and cardiovascular outcomes for the general population for years to come. Mitigating this impending wave of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality will require the successful transition of cardiovascular risk reduction activities to the virtual space. Telehealth interventions offer new methods of interacting with our patients, and potentially an opportunity to improve the efficiency and accessibility of cardiovascular risk management.

KEY POINTS Concern about imbalances between the demand and the supply of vaccinations for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been raised, given worldwide demand, centralized manufacturing and limitations in the infrastructure for vaccine delivery and administration in

Background: We hypothesized that disparities between sexes in the management of myocardial infarction (MI) may have changed over time, and thus altered the prognoses after MI, especially the risk for the development of heart failure. Methods: Using a large population-based cohort of patients with MI between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2016, we examined the incidence, angiographic findings, treatment (including revascularization), and clinical outcomes of patients with a first-time MI. To elucidate the differences between sexes, a series of multivariable models were created to explore all MI and non–ST-segment–elevation MI (NSTEMI) versus ST-segment–elevation MI (STEMI) over time. Results: Between 2002 and 2016, 45 064 patients (13 878 [30.8%] women) were hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of first-time MI (54.9% NSTEMI and 45.1% STEMI). Women were older (median age, 72 versus 61 years), had more comorbidities, and had lower rates of diagnostic angiography than did men (women, 74%, versus men, 87%). When angiography was performed, women had a lower proportion of left main, 2-vessel disease with proximal left anterior descending or 3-vessel disease compared with men (33.4% versus 40.9%, P P Conclusions: Although some attenuation of differences in clinical outcomes over time has occurred, women remain at higher risk than men of dying or developing heart failure in the subsequent 5 years after STEMI or NSTEMI, even after accounting for differences in angiographic findings, revascularization, and other confounders.

Few studies have categorized high-cost patients (defined by accumulated health care spending above a predetermined percentile) into distinctive groups for which potentially actionable interventions may improve outcomes and reduce costs. We sought to identify homogeneous groups within the persistently high-cost population to develop a taxonomy of subgroups that may be targetable with specific interventions.We conducted a retrospective analysis in which we identified adults (≥ 18 yr) who lived in Alberta between April 2014 and March 2019. We defined "persistently high-cost users" as those in the top 1% of health care spending across 4 data sources (the Discharge Abstract Database for inpatient encounters; Practitioner Claims for outpatient primary care and specialist encounters; the Ambulatory Care Classification System for emergency department encounters; and the Pharmaceutical Information Network for medication use) in at least 2 consecutive fiscal years. We used latent class analysis and expert clinical opinion in tandem to separate the persistently high-cost population into subgroups that may be targeted by specific interventions based on their distinctive clinical profiles and the drivers of their health system use and costs.Of the 3 919 388 adults who lived in Alberta for at least 2 consecutive fiscal years during the study period, 21 115 (0.5%) were persistently high-cost users. We identified 9 subgroups in this population: people with cardiovascular disease (Using latent class analysis supplemented with expert clinical review, we identified 9 policy-relevant subgroups among persistently high-cost health care users. This taxonomy may be used to inform policy, including identifying interventions that are most likely to improve care and reduce cost for each subgroup.

BackgroundThere have been rapid shifts in outpatient care models during the COVID-19 pandemic but the impact of these changes on patient outcomes are uncertain. We designed this study to examine ambulatory outpatient visit patterns and outcomes between March 1, 2019 to February 29, 2020 (pre-pandemic) and from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (pandemic).MethodsWe conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all 3.8 million adults in the Canadian province of Alberta, which has a single payer healthcare system, using linked administrative data. We examined all outpatient physician encounters (virtual or in-person) and outcomes (emergency department visits, hospitalizations, or deaths) in the next 30- and 90-days.ResultsAlthough in-person outpatient visits declined by 38.9% in the year after March 1, 2020 (10,142,184 vs. 16,592,599), the increase in virtual visits (7,152,147; 41.4% of total) meant that total outpatient encounters increased by 4.1% in the first year of the pandemic. Outpatient care and prescribing patterns remained stable for adults with ambulatory-care sensitive conditions (ACSC): 97.2% saw a primary care physician (median 6 visits), 59.0% had at least one specialist visit, and 98.5% were prescribed medications (median 9) in the year prior to the pandemic compared to 96.6% (median 3 in-person and 2 virtual visits), 62.6%, and 98.6% (median 8 medications) during the first year of the pandemic. In the first year of the pandemic, virtual outpatient visits were associated with less subsequent healthcare encounters than in-person ambulatory visits, particularly for patients with ACSC (9.2% vs. 10.4%, aOR 0.89 [95% confidence interval 0.87-0.92] at 30 days and 26.9% vs. 29.3%, aOR 0.93 [0.92-0.95] at 90 days).ConclusionsThe shifts in outpatient care patterns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic did not disrupt prescribing or follow-up for patients with ACSC and did not worsen post-visit outcomes.FundingNoneRegistrationNoneKEY MESSAGESWhat is already known on this topicThere have been rapid shifts in outpatient care models during the COVID-19 pandemic but outcomes are uncertain.What this study addsTotal outpatient encounters increased by 4% in the first year of the pandemic due to a rapid increase in virtual visits (which made up 41% of all outpatient encounters). Prescribing patterns and frequency of follow-up were similar in the first year after onset of the pandemic in adults with ambulatory-care sensitive conditions. Compared to in-person visits, virtual outpatient visits were associated with less subsequent healthcare encounters, particularly for patients with ambulatory-care sensitive conditions (11% less at 30 days and 7% less at 90 days).How this study might affect research, practice or policyOur data provides reassurance that the shifts in outpatient care patterns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic did not negatively impact follow-up, prescribing, or outcomes for patients with ACSC. Further research is needed to define which patients and which conditions are most suitable for virtual outpatient visits and, as with all outpatient care, the optimal frequency of such visits.

BACKGROUND: Research involving children with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has primarily focused on those presenting to emergency departments. We aimed to determine the symptoms most commonly associated with a positive result for a SARS-CoV-2 swab among community-based children. METHODS: We conducted an observational study among children tested and followed for SARS-CoV-2 infection using nasal, nasopharyngeal, throat or other (e.g., nasopharyngeal aspirate or tracheal secretions, or unknown) swabs between Apr. 13 and Sept. 30, 2020, in Alberta. We calculated positive likelihood ratios (LRs) for self-reported symptoms and a positive SARS-CoV-2 swab result in the entire cohort and in 3 sensitivity analyses: all children with at least 1 symptom, all children tested because of contact tracing whether they were symptomatic or not and all children 5 years of age or older. RESULTS: We analyzed results for 2463 children who underwent testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection; 1987 children had a positive result and 476 had a negative result. Of children with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, 714 (35.9%) reported being asymptomatic. Although cough (24.5%) and rhinorrhea (19.3%) were 2 of the most common symptoms among children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, they were also common among those with negative test results and were not predictive of a positive test (positive LR 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81–1.14, and 0.87, 95% CI 0.72–1.06, respectively). Anosmia/ageusia (positive LR 7.33, 95% CI 3.03–17.76), nausea/vomiting (positive LR 5.51, 95% CI 1.74–17.43), headache (positive LR 2.49, 95% CI 1.74– 3.57) and fever (positive LR 1.68, 95% CI 1.34–2.11) were the symptoms most predictive of a positive result for a SARS-CoV-2 swab. The positive LR for the combination of anosmia/ageusia, nausea/vomiting and headache was 65.92 (95% CI 49.48–91.92). INTERPRETATION: About two-thirds of the children who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection reported symptoms. The symptoms most strongly associated with a positive SARS-CoV-2 swab result were anosmia/ageusia, nausea/vomiting, headache and fever.

Clinical practice guidelines recommend several routine laboratory tests in patients diagnosed with hypertension. However, the rates of clinically relevant laboratory abnormalities are unknown. Therefore, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using administrative and laboratory data of patients diagnosed with hypertension between April 2010 and March 2015 in Alberta, Canada. Laboratory investigations for renal function, serum electrolytes (sodium and potassium), low‐density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and diabetes (fasting blood glucose and hemoglobin A1c), measured within 1 year of diagnosis, were examined, and the frequency of abnormalities determined. A total of 225 296 cases of incident hypertension were identified. Of these, 74.3% received at least one of the four guideline‐recommended laboratory tests, but only 42.3% received all four tests. Patients who received any testing, compared to subjects who did not, were on average older (median age 55.9 vs 51.2 years, P

PurposeTo characterize high-users (HUs) of inpatient units, obtain insights from their primary care physicians (PCPs) and identify factors that can be modified to reduce resource use. MethodThe study design included retrospective chart reviews of high-user patients and qualitative surveys of their PCPs. HUs were defined as adults with 3 or more admissions to an index tertiary teaching hospital in Edmonton as well as a cumulative length of stay (cLOS) greater than 30 days at any hospital in the province of Alberta, between September 1, 2015 and September 30, 2016. The charts of HUs were reviewed to assess demographics, admitting and consulting services, medical profile, social profile, community supports, and scores on pre-existing risk-stratification tools to identify patient factors that might be characteristic of HUs. Additionally, a survey comprising 12 multiple-choice and 8 short-answer questions was faxed to their PCPs to assess HU attitudes and behaviors and collect recommendations to prevent high use of acute care. ResultsOf 125 HUs (median 62 years old, 5 admissions, cLOS 49 days, 14 emergency department (ED) visits, 10 medications), 74% lived at home, 86% had a PCP, 56% received homecare pre-admission and 34% had at least one critical care admission. HUs accounted for 2474 admissions or ED visits (median 14, IQR 10-22) at all sites in the year studied; 41% of their 1605 ED visits and 21% of their 869 admissions were at other hospitals. Their most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension, depression, and diabetes. 49 responses were received to 114 faxed surveys (43% response rate). Only 14 of 49 responding PCPs suggested interventions to address ED revisits and readmissions; PCPs most frequently cited living conditions and lack of social supports as key causative factors.ConclusionsWe have characterized high-user patients and discussed PCP perspectives and strategies to optimize their healthcare use. Resume ObjetCaractériser les grands utilisateurs (HU) des unités d’hospitalisation, obtenir des informations de leurs médecins de soins primaires (PCP) et identifier les facteurs qui peuvent être modifiés pour réduire l’utilisation des ressources. MéthodeLa conception de l’étude comprenait des examens rétrospectifs de dossiers de patients très utilisateurs et des enquêtes qualitatives sur leurs PPC. Les UH ont été définis comme des adultes ayant été admis à trois reprises ou plus dans un hôpital universitaire tertiaire d’Edmonton et dont la durée de séjour cumulée (DSC) est supérieure à 30 jours dans n’importe quel hôpital de la province de l’Alberta, entre le 1er septembre 2015 et le 30 septembre 2016. Les tableaux des HU ont été examinés afin d’évaluer les données démographiques, les services d’admission et de consultation, le profil médical, le profil social, les soutiens communautaires et les scores des outils de stratification des risques préexistants afin d’identifier les facteurs des patients qui pourraient être caractéristiques des HU. En outre, une enquête comprenant 12 questions à choix multiple et 8 questions à réponse courte a été envoyée par fax à leurs PCP afin d’évaluer les attitudes et les comportements des HU et de recueillir des recommandations pour prévenir un recours élevé aux soins de courte durée. RésultatsSur 125 HU (âge médian 62 ans, 5 admissions, cLOS 49 jours, 14 visites aux urgences, 10 médicaments), 74 % vivaient à domicile, 86 % avaient un PCP, 56 % recevaient des soins à domicile avant leur admission et 34 % avaient au moins une admission en soins intensifs. Les HU ont représenté 2474 admissions ou visites aux urgences (médiane 14, IQR 10-22) dans tous les sites au cours de l’année étudiée ; 41% de leurs 1605 visites aux urgences et 21% de leurs 869 admissions se sont faites dans d’autres hôpitaux. Leurs comorbidités les plus fréquentes étaient l’hypertension, la dépression et le diabète. 49 réponses ont été reçues pour 114 enquêtes envoyées par fax (taux de réponse de 43 %). Seuls 14 des 49 PCP ayant répondu ont suggéré des interventions pour remédier aux problèmes des visites aux urgences et des réadmissions; les PCP ont le plus souvent cité les conditions de vie et le manque de soutien social comme principaux facteurs de causalité. ConclusionsNous avons caractérisé les patients grands utilisateurs et discuté des perspectives et des stratégies de la PCP pour optimiser leur utilisation des soins de santé.

Aims Whether glycaemic control is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. Consequently, we assessed the relationship between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c ) and cardiovascular outcomes in a placebo-controlled randomized trial which demonstrated no cardiovascular effect of sitagliptin in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic vascular disease. Methods and results Secondary analysis of 14 656 TECOS participants with time to event analyses using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. During a median 3.0 (interquartile range 2.3-3.8) year follow-up, 456 (3.1% of 14 656) patients had first hospitalization for heart failure (HF), 1084 (11.5%) died, 1406 (9.6%) died or were hospitalized for HF, and 1689 (11.5%) had a non-HF cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina). Associations between baseline or time-varying HbA1c and cardiovascular outcomes were U-shaped, with the lowest risk when HbA1c was around 7%. Each one-unit increase in the time-varying HbA1c above 7% was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.33] for first HF hospitalization, 1.11 (1.03-1.21) for all-cause death, 1.18 (1.09-1.26) for death or HF hospitalization, and 1.10 (1.02-1.17) for non-HF cardiovascular events. Each one-unit decrease in the time-varying HbA1c below 7% was associated with an adjusted HR of 1.35 (95% CI 1.12-1.64) for first HF hospitalization, 1.37 (1.16-1.61) for death, 1.42 (1.23-1.64) for death or HF hospitalization, and 1.22 (1.06-1.41) for non-HF cardiovascular events. Conclusion Glycated haemogobin exhibits a U-shaped association with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic vascular disease, with nadir around 7%. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00790205.

Aims The first presentation of atrial fibrillation (AF) is often to an emergency department (ED). We evaluated the association of subsequent specialist care with morbidity and mortality. Methods and results Retrospective cohort study of all adults in Alberta, Canada, with a new primary diagnosis of AF treated and released during an index ED visit between 2009 and 2015. Types of physician follow-up within 3 months of ED visit was analysed using Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates. Outcomes were evaluated at 1 year. Of 7986 patients, 476 (6.0%) had no physician follow-up within 3 months, whereas 2730 (34.2%) attended a non-specialist only, 1277 (16.0%) an internal medicine specialist, and 3503 (43.9%) cardiology. An increasing gradient of cardiac investigations occurred across these groups. Cardiology compared with non-cardiologist care was associated with approximately two-fold greater electrophysiology interventions and revascularization, and increased use of beta-blockers (48.9% vs. 43.0%, P Conclusion Cardiology care after an ED visit for symptomatic new-onset AF is associated with better prognosis. The benefit may be mediated through more intensive investigation, identification, and treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and disease.

We aimed to determine whether early public health interventions in 2020 mitigated the association of sociodemographic and clinical risk factors with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We conducted a population-based cohort study of all adults in Ontario, Canada who underwent testing for SARS-CoV-2 through December 31, 2020. The outcome was laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, determined by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were determined for sociodemographic and clinical risk factors before and after the first-wave peak of the pandemic to assess for changes in effect sizes. Among 3,167,753 community-dwelling individuals, 142,814 (4.5%) tested positive. The association between age and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk varied over time (P-interaction P

BackgroundPandemics may promote hospital avoidance among patients with emergencies, and added precautions may exacerbate treatment delays. There is a paucity of population-based data on these phenomena for stroke. We examined the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the presentation and treatment of ischemic stroke in an entire population.MethodsWe used linked provincial administrative data and data from the Quality Improvement and Clinical Research Alberta Stroke Program – a registry capturing stroke-related data on the entire population of Alberta(4.3 million)– to identify all patients presenting with stroke in the pre-pandemic(1-January-2016 to 27-February-2020, n=19,531) and pandemic(28-February-2020 to 30-August-2020, n=2,255) periods. We examined changes in thrombolysis and endovascular therapy(EVT) rates, workflow, and in-hospital outcomes.ResultsHospitalizations/presentations for ischemic stroke dropped (weekly adjusted-incidence-rate-ratio[aIRR]:0.48, 95%CI:0.46-0.50, adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, pre-admission care needs), as did population-level incidence of thrombolysis(aIRR:0.49,0.44-0.56) or EVT(aIRR:0.59,0.49-0.69). However, the proportions of presenting patients receiving acute therapies did not decline (e.g. thrombolysis:11.7% pre-pandemic vs 13.1% during-pandemic, aOR:1.02,0.75-1.38). Onset-to-door times were prolonged; EVT recipients experienced longer door-to-reperfusion times (median door-to-reperfusion:110-minutes, IQR:77-156 pre-pandemic vs 132.5-minutes, 99-179 during-pandemic; adjusted-coefficient:18.7-minutes, 95%CI:1.45-36.0). Hospitalizations were shorter but stroke severity and in-hospital mortality did not differ.InterpretationThe first COVID-19 wave was associated with a halving of presentations and acute therapy utilization for ischemic stroke at a population level, and greater pre-hospital and in-hospital treatment delays. Our data can inform public health messaging and stroke care in current and future waves. Messaging should encourage attendance for emergencies and stroke systems should re-examine “code stroke” protocols to mitigate inefficiencies.

Heart failure (HF), and especially HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), remains a challenging condition to define. The heterogenous nature of this population may be related to a variety of underlying etiologies interacting myocardial dysfunction.Alberta HEART study was a prospective, observational cohort that enrolled participants along the spectrum of heart failure including: healthy controls, people at risk of HF, and patients with HF and preserved (HFpEF) or reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). We aimed to explore phenotypes of patients with HF and at-risk of developing HF. Utilising 27 detailed clinical, echocardiographic and biomarker variables, latent class analysis with and without multiple imputation was undertaken to identify distinct clinical phenotypes.Of 621 participants, 191 (30.8%) and 169 (27.2%) were adjudicated by cardiologists to have HFpEF and HFrEF respectively. In the overall cohort, latent class analysis identified four distinct phenotypes. Phenotype A (n=152, 24.5%) was a healthy and low risk group. Phenotype B (n=129, 20.8%) demonstrated increased left ventricular mass and end-diastolic volumes, with elevated natriuretic peptides and clinical features of congestion. Phenotype C (n=128, 20.6%) was primarily characterised by obesity (80%) and normal indexed cardiac chamber sizes, low natriuretic peptide levels and minimal features of congestion. Phenotype D (n=212, 34.1%) consisted of elderly patients with clinical features of congestions. Phenotypes B and D demonstrated the highest risk of mortality and hospitalization over a median follow-up of 3.7 years.Phenotypes with congestive features demonstrated increased risk profiles. Heart failure is a heterogenous classification which requires further work to appropriately categorise patients based on the underlying etiology or mechanism of impairment.

ImportanceWith the emergence of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC), there is an urgent need for evidence about disease severity and the health care impacts of VOC in North America, particularly since a substantial proportion of the population have declined vaccination thus far.ObjectiveTo examine 30-day outcomes in Canadians infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year of the pandemic and to compare event rates in those with VOC versus wild-type infection.DesignRetrospective cohort study using linked healthcare administrative datasets.SettingAlberta and Ontario, the two Canadian provinces that experienced the largest third wave in the spring of 2021.ParticipantsAll individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction swab from March 1, 2020 until March 31, 2021, with genomic confirmation of VOC screen-positive tests during February and March 2021 (wave 3).Exposure of InterestVOC versus wild type SARS-CoV-2Main Outcomes and MeasuresAll-cause hospitalizations or death within 30 days after a positive SARS-CoV-2 swab.ResultsCompared to the 372,741 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 2020 and January 2021 (waves 1 and 2 in Canada), there was a shift in transmission towards younger patients in the 104,232 COVID-19 cases identified in wave 3. As a result, although third wave patients were more likely to be hospitalized (aOR 1.34 [1.29-1.39] in Ontario and aOR 1.53 [95%CI 1.41-1.65] in Alberta), they had shorter lengths of stay (median 5 vs. 7 days, pConclusions and RelevanceOn a population basis, the shift towards younger age groups as the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved translates into more hospitalizations but shorter lengths of stay and lower mortality risk than seen in the first 10 months of the pandemic in Canada. However, on an individual basis, infection with a VOC is associated with a higher risk of hospitalization or death than the original wild-type SARS-CoV-2 – this is important information to address vaccine hesitancy given the increasing frequency of VOC infections now.

Health administrative data are routinely used to assess disease burden, quality of care, and outcomes for atrial fibrillation (AF). Governments, administrators, and researchers define cohorts differently, based on 3 key factors: the case definition algorithm to identify AF, inclusion/exclusion of transient AF, and the lookback period to identify cases. We assessed the impact of varying these key factors on estimates of the use of guideline-indicated oral anticoagulation (OAC). Hospitalization, ED, and outpatient claim databases were linked in British Columbia. AF was defined by ICD-9 or 10 codes 427.3x or I48.x. We examined a specific (1 hospital or 1 ED or 2 outpatient) vs a sensitive (1 hospital or ED or outpatient) algorithm; inclusion/exclusion of AF associated with open-heart surgery; and lookback periods of 1 to 10 years. We found the more specific AF definition increased OAC utilization by 5% (58.7% vs 53.4%); excluding AF associated with open-heart surgery increased OAC utilization by 0.7% to 2.3%; and each additional lookback year identified more prevalent cases but reduced OAC utilization by approximately 1%. In 40 scenarios, generated by varying all 3 key factors, OAC utilization ranged from 52% to 72%. Assuming a ceiling of 90%, the estimated "treatment gap" therefore varied from 18% to 38%. The 2-fold variation in the OAC treatment gap was based entirely on cohort definition. This has significant implications for health policy and quality indicators.

BACKGROUND: The National Quality Forum endorsed a 3-item Care Transitions Measure (CTM-3), part of the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) survey, for evaluating hospital care transitions performance. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether CTM-3 scores are a suitable proxy for quality of transitional care. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 48,384 adults discharged from medical or surgical wards in all 113 acute care hospitals in Alberta, Canada, between April 2011 and March 2016. MAIN MEASURES: CTM-3 scores and their associations with all-cause emergency department (ED) visits or non-elective readmissions at 30 days, 3 months, and 12 months anywhere in the province. RESULTS: CTM-3 scores were significantly lower (all p

Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest arrhythmia and a major cause of stroke and health care utilization. Researchers and administrators use electronic health data to assess disease burden, quality and variance in care, value of interventions and prognosis. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the validity of AF case definitions in administrative databases. Methods Medline was searched from 2000 to 2018. Extracted information included sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) for various AF case definitions. Estimates were pooled using random-effects models due to significant heterogeneity between studies. Results We identified 24 studies, including 21 from North America or Scandinavia. Hospital, ambulatory and mixed data sources were assessed in 10, 4 and 10 studies, respectively. Nine different AF case definitions were evaluated, most based on ICD-9 or 10 codes. Twenty-two studies assessed case definitions in patients diagnosed with AF and thus could generate PPV alone. Half the studies sampled unrestricted populations including a mix of those with and without AF to assess sensitivity. Only 13 studies included ECG confirmation as a gold standard. The pooled random effects estimates were: sensitivity 80% (95% CI 72-86%); specificity 98% (96-99%); PPV 88% (82-94%); NPV 97% (94-99%). Only 3 studies reported all accuracy parameters and included rhythm monitoring in the gold standard definition. Conclusion Relatively few studies examined sensitivity, and fewer still included rhythm monitoring in the gold standard comparison. Administrative data may fail to identify a significant proportion of patients with AF. This, in turn, may bias estimates of quality of care and prognosis.

Background: Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are increasingly older and have a higher comorbidity burden. This study evaluated trends in 30-day, 1-year, and 2-year total and cause-specific mortality using a large, contemporary cohort of patients who underwent PCI in Alberta, Canada. Methods: We used the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) registry to identify patients aged ≥ 20 years who underwent PCI between 2005 and 2013. All patients were followed until death or being censored by August 2016. Cause of death was from the Vital Statistics database and classified as cardiac or noncardiac. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate predicted mortality at 30 days, 1 year, and 2 years post-PCI. Results: Of the 35,602 patients who underwent PCI, 5284 (14.8%) had died. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up was 74.9 (35.1) months. Over the study period, patients were older and more likely to undergo PCI for an acute coronary syndrome indication. Thirty-day (2005: 1.3%; 2013: 3.2%; P < 0.001), 1-year (2005: 2.7%; 2013: 5.7%; P < 0.001), and 2-year (2005: 4.5%; 2013: 7.5%; P < 0.001) predicted mortality after PCI increased over the study period. Cardiac cause of death dominated in the short-term, but the proportion of noncardiac deaths increased as time from PCI to death increased (30 days = 11.5%, 1 year = 31.5%, 2 years = 39.6%; P < 0.001). Conclusions: In this population-based study, we found all-cause mortality at 30 days, 1 year, and 2 years after PCI increased over time. Cardiac causes of death dominate in the short-term after PCI; however, noncardiac cause becomes a major driver of mortality in the long-term. Résumé: Contexte: Les patients devant subir une intervention coronarienne percutanée (ICP) sont de plus en plus âgés et subissent un fardeau accru de comorbidités. La présente étude a évalué les tendances de la mortalité totale et due à une cause particulière à 30 jours, 1 an et 2 ans, au sein d’une vaste cohorte contemporaine de patients ayant subi une ICP en Alberta, au Canada. Méthodologie: Nous avons utilisé le registre APPROACH (Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease) pour recenser les patients âgés de 20 ans ou plus qui avaient subi une ICP entre 2005 et 2013. Tous les patients ont fait l’objet d’un suivi jusqu’au décès ou à la censure des données en août 2016. La cause du décès était issue de la Base de données sur l’état civil et classée comme étant d’origine cardiaque ou non cardiaque. On a eu recours à un modèle de régression logistique multivarié pour calculer la mortalité prédite 30 jours, 1 an et 2 ans après l’ICP. Résultats: Sur les 35 602 patients ayant subi une ICP, 5 284 (14,8 %) étaient décédés. La durée moyenne de suivi (écart type) était de 74,9 (35,1) mois. Au cours de la période de l’étude, les patients étaient plus âgés et plus susceptibles de subir une ICP pour une indication de syndrome coronarien aigu. On observe une augmentation de la mortalité prédite après l’ICP au cours de la période de l’étude selon les taux suivants : à trente jours (2005 : 1,3 %; 2013 : 3,2 %; p < 0,001), à 1 an (2005 : 2,7 %; 2013 : 5,7 %; p < 0,001) et à 2 ans (2005 : 4,5 %; 2013 : 7,5 %; p < 0,001). Les causes cardiaques de décès dominaient à court terme, mais la proportion de décès d’origine non cardiaque augmentait avec le temps au fur et à mesure de l’allongement de l’intervalle entre la date de l’ICP et le décès (30 jours = 11,5 %, 1 an = 31,5 %, 2 ans = 39,6 %; p < 0,001). Conclusions: Dans cette étude de population, nous avons trouvé que la mortalité toutes causes confondues à 30 jours, 1 an et 2 ans après une ICP augmente au fil du temps. Les causes cardiaques de décès dominent peu de temps après l’ICP, tandis que les causes non cardiaques jouent un rôle déterminant dans la mortalité à long terme.

Aims To identify variables predicting ejection fraction (EF) recovery and characterize prognosis of heart failure (HF) patients with EF recovery (HFrecEF). Methods and results Retrospective study of adults referred for ≥2 echocardiograms separated by ≥6 months between 2008 and 2016 at the two largest echocardiography centres in Alberta who also had physician-assigned diagnosis of HF. Of 10 641 patients, 3124 had heart failure reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (EF ≤ 40%) at baseline: while mean EF declined from 30.2% on initial echocardiogram to 28.6% on the second echocardiogram in those patients with persistent HFrEF (defined by Conclusion HFrecEF patients tended to be younger, female, and were more likely to have hypertension, atrial fibrillation, or cancer. HFrecEF patients have a substantially better prognosis compared to those with persistent HFrEF, even after multivariable adjustment, and female patients exhibit lower mortality risk than men within each subgroup (HFrecEF and persistent HFrEF) even after multivariable adjustment.

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of two models of osteoporosis care after upper extremity fragility fracture using a high-intensity Fracture Liaison Service (FLS) Case-Manager intervention versus a low-intensity FLS (ie, Active Control), and both relative to usual care. This analysis used data from a pragmatic patient-level parallel-arm comparative effectiveness trial of 361 community-dwelling participants 50 years or older with upper extremity fractures undertaken at a Canadian academic hospital. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the three treatment alternatives. The perspective was health service payer; the analytical horizon was lifetime; costs and health outcomes were discounted by 3%. Costs were expressed in 2016 Canadian dollars (CAD) and the health effect was measured by quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The average age of enrolled patients was 63 years and 89% were female. Per patient cost of the Case Manager and Active Control interventions were $66CAD and $18CAD, respectively. Compared to the Active Control, the Case Manager saved $333,000, gained seven QALYs, and averted nine additional fractures per 1000 patients. Compared to usual care, the Case Manager saved $564,000, gained 14 QALYs, and incurred 18 fewer fractures per 1000 patients, whereas the Active Control saved $231,000, gained seven QALYs, and incurred nine fewer fractures per 1000 patients. Although both interventions dominated usual care, the Case Manager intervention also dominated the Active Control. In 5000 probabilistic simulations, the probability that the Case Manager intervention was cost-effective was greater than 75% whereas the Active Control intervention was cost-effective in less than 20% of simulations. In summary, although the adoption of either of these approaches into clinical settings should lead to cost savings, reduced fractures, and increased quality-adjusted life for older adults following upper extremity fracture, the Case Manager intervention would be the most likely to be cost-effective. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.