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If climate policies are the result of transnationalization of public policies, how are they reinterpreted at the national level? This study has examined the context in which climate policy is formulated in Colombia from an actor-oriented perspective. Using a traveling model approach,we analyzed the role of actors at international and national levels in raising climate issues and shaping climate policies. The results showed that the translation chains from several governmental and non-governmental actors increase the visibility of climate issues in Colombia and how such consultations help defining and addressing these issues. The analysis arising from the climate traveling model exposes power struggles between competing agencies: the National Planning Department (DNP), which promoted climate-change adaptation, and the National Disaster Risk Management Unit (UNGRD), which favored disaster risk management. At the end of the translation chains, governmental actors re-appropriated the international consultants' interpretations of the issues and solutions within an economic perspective. Hence, adaptation to climate change came to be seen as an economic opportunity or as a way to avoid economic loss. International dominance in the elaboration of climate policies combined with scant involvement of local actors could constitute a challenge for policy implementation and potentially inhibit achieving successful outcomes.

The ongoing COVID-19 crisis has emphasized more than ever the relevance of wildlife as a potential source of pathogens for other species, including humans, and the potential importance that interactions with wildlife can have on global health. Nevertheless, in the veterinary world, the concept of wildlife as a potential reservoir and source of pathogens detrimental to livestock production and health has been known for centuries. Well-known examples of livestock diseases in which the interface with wildlife plays, or has played, an important role include rinderpest, avian influenza, foot and mouth disease (FMD), and African swine fever (ASF). Rinderpest, caused by a morbillivirus of the family Paramyxoviridae, is one of only two diseases that have been globally eradicated (the other being smallpox in humans), after having caused major disease outbreaks in domestic and wild artiodactyl species for centuries. After a globally coordinated eradication campaign, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations announced in 2011 that rinderpest virus had been eliminated from livestock, thus declaring global freedom from this disease (Hamilton et al., 2017). Circulation of rinderpest virus in endemic regions in wild susceptible species was an important consideration in the eradication campaign, and lack of recognition of wildlife reservoirs was one of the factors to which failure of initial campaigns in the 1960s and 70s was attributed (Morens et al., 2011). Other diseases, such as ASF and FMD, are still endemic and expanding across different regions of the world. FMD is estimated to be endemic in 77% of the global livestock population, in Africa, Asia, and some parts of South America (OIE, 2021a) and ASF is becoming endemic in Africa, Europe, Asia, and some parts of Oceania (OIE, 2021b). Efforts to control or eradicate these diseases are challenging, particularly in those areas where wild reservoir hosts contribute to their maintenance and spread. African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been known for more than a century to be maintained in the soft tick-warthog sylvatic cycle in natural savannah environments in East and Southern Africa. Occasional interactions between ASFV-infected ticks and domestic pigs have facilitated the dissemination of several ASFV genotypes into the domestic pig value-chain in Africa and subsequently into other parts of the world (Dixon et al., 2020). During the currently ongoing pandemic of ASF, the wild boar population in Europe has played a central role in the propagation of the virus into new areas. While most ASF spread appears to occur within domestic pig populations due to anthropogenic factors, incursions of ASFV into low biosecurity domestic pig farming systems from wild boar are also important (Brookes et al., 2021). Likewise, transboundary spread of FMD in susceptible domestic livestock such as cattle and pigs is commonly mediated by anthropogenic factors, such as movement of infected livestock, or the feeding of infected products to susceptible species (Di Nardo et al., 2011). However, in East and Southern Africa, the African buffalo interface plays an important role in maintaining FMD virus (FMDV) strains and disseminating them to adjacent susceptible livestock populations (Jori and Etter, 2016). These examples provide only a snapshot illustration of the potential role of wildlife on livestock disease and demonstrate the importance of the wildlife–livestock interface. At a planetary scale, several factors act as major drivers of increased wildlife–livestock interactions at these interfaces (Magouras et al., 2020). Critical drivers include the need to feed an ever-increasing world human population, which has altered the way in which livestock are farmed, the way in which we interact with the ecosystem, and climate change. These drivers not only increase the intensity and frequency of interactions between wildlife and potential spillover populations (e.g., humans and domesticated animals such as livestock) but also facilitate new transmission pathways for potential emerging pathogens. Some of the impacts of these interactions have been well-described in the literature, particularly those affecting livestock production and health. However, these interactions can also have very significant and devastating effects on wildlife populations and the environment. Importantly, circulation of undetected pathogens in the domestic and wild animal compartments also provides opportunity for the development of potentially dangerous emerging infectious diseases. In this review, we provide an overview of the drivers of wildlife–livestock interactions and their potential impacts on terrestrial livestock production. We define wildlife as any domesticated or non-domesticated species that is free-ranging and does not depend on mankind for food or reproduction. In addition, we present and discuss the major tools and methods to reduce wildlife–livestock contact and to mitigate its health implications, including biosecurity measures and the approaches and potential solutions for improved cohabitation between livestock and wildlife to encourage biodiversity and reduce negative impacts such as disease spillover.

Depuis sa création il y a 75 ans, le système des Nations Unies a développé une structure complète et stratifiée destinée à assurer la gestion des désastres naturels et les urgences humanitaires. La structure humanitaire actuelle – qui comprend une douzaine d’agences spécialisées, des protocoles de réponse détaillés, et se concentre plus particulièrement sur la gestion du risque avant, durant et après l’impact des grandes catastrophes – apparaît comme le résultat de multiples expériences spécifiques, sources de leçons à retenir pour faire face aux situations d’urgence futures. Dans le but de sauver davantage de vies et de réduire les pertes financières, récemment le système a aussi « redécouvert » des concepts clé tels celui de résilience ou la notion de responsabilité vis-à-vis des populations victimes des désastres. Afin de comprendre le développement du système international de l’action humanitaire, l’article analyse un certain nombre de leçons qui ont été tirées des grandes catastrophes. Il s’interroge également sur l’effective prise en compte des leçons du passé dans la mise en œuvre des procédures d’intervention standard par le système humanitaire lui-même.

International audience; Coastal area is a contact point between hazardous nature and sensitive society, where coastal erosion and marine flooding risks are making the territory vulnerable and the risk management necessary. This contribution draws on systemic vulnerability approach (combination between hazard, issue, management and representation), and it details the indicators development method to monitor the coastal risk management in metropolitan France. This study incorporates to the OSIRISC research project. It aims to build an integrated observatory of vulnerability about coastal risks.; La zone côtière offre un point de contact entre une nature potentiellement destructrice et une société exposée. Cela estvisible par la survenue de dommages liée à l’érosion côtière et la submersion marine, rendant le territoire vulnérable et la gestion deces risques impérative. À partir d’une approche systémique de la vulnérabilité (vu comme la combinaison des aléas, des enjeux, dela gestion et des représentations), cette contribution détaille la méthode appliquée pour aboutir à une série d’indicateurs de suivi dela gestion des risques côtiers (érosion et submersion marine) en France métropolitaine. Ce travail rentre dans le cadre du projet derecherche OSIRISC, financé par la Fondation de France, qui vise, à terme, à construire un observatoire intégré de la vulnérabilitéaux risques d’érosion-submersion.

International audience; Over the last few years, intensive agriculture has often been denounced as a source of negative effects, particularly at the environmental and health level (overexploitation of natural resources, degradation of their quality, appearance and development of several diseases, etc.). Reducing the excessive use of agricultural inputs for the protection of the environment and the preservation of human and animal health is a social requirement nowadays. Investing in more sustainable agricultural models which make it possible to reduce, or even eliminate the risks, has become urgent. A possible solution may be to resort to agroecological systems. In order to be sustainable, these new systems must be performant at the agronomic, economic, social, and environmental levels. There is a multitude of tools for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems. These tools are inappropriate for organic and agroecological systems, and do not make it possible to measure the agroecological transition performance of farms (Trabelsi et al. Environ Sci Pollut Res 23:139–156, 2016; Trabelsi 2017). This research project aims to design a decision support tool in order to help farms throughout the agroecological transition process, to assess the performance of this transition, and to put forward improvement scenarios. Contrary to other assessment methods, ESSIMAGE (Evaluation and Simulation of Agroecological Systems) is based on both pressure and impact indicators, and takes the specificities of agricultural production systems into account. It is a dynamic tool which not only makes it possible to assess farm performance at the present moment but also to consider the future by putting forward possible alternative improvement scenarios and by simulating their consequences at a later stage. ESSIMAGE is based on the interaction of two elements: agro-environmental, social, and economic indicators, and the GIS (Geographic Information System) software. This tool has been tested as part of a CASDAR “Post-MAET Gimone” (agriculture.gouv.fr/ministere/mobilisation-collective-pour-lagroecologie.) project on the subject of “Collective mobilization for agroecology” by using farm data, most of the farms having been involved in an agro-environmental measure for the progressive reduction of phytosanitary treatments since 2008. It has made it possible to compare the agroecological performances of these farms with an optimal situation, as well as with each other. Considering the research objectives and the approaches discussed, this study is an original step in the development of agricultural management strategies in favor of agroecology.

En quelques mois, la pandémie de coronavirus a plongé le monde dans une situation de paralysie dont la durée est difficilement appréhendable. Le Japon, pris entre le report des JO et la rentrée scolaire, semble avoir maîtrisé l’épidémie dès les premières semaines, enrayant de fait son développement exponentiel. Il reste néanmoins des difficultés principalement dues à une réduction des investissements publics dans les hôpitaux contraints de réduire leur accueil.

International audience; Rabies circulates intensely in Cambodia, mainly affecting rural populations. We conducted a prospective study to estimate the baseline incidence of potentially infective dog bites in rural villages of Siem Reap province, Cambodia. The study was conducted in a convenience sample of 844 families totaling 1779 persons in four villages. The study collected data in a total of 802.3 person-years. Trained village health workers (VHW) exhaustively documented consecutive dog bites at the end of each month. Between May 15th and November 15th, 2011, a total of 40 attacks (43 bites; 1.07 bites per attack) were notified by 39 persons (50% female; one suffered two distinct incidents) to VHW. The all-age attack rate for bites over this 6-month period was 2.3% (CI95%: 1.7-3.1%), with a global incidence rate estimated at 4.84 bites/100 person-years (CI95%: 3.5-6.6). The mean age in bite victims was 20.8±18.9years (median 12.5; interquartile range 6-36; range 1-63). The dog was identified in 39 (97.5%) of cases, being the household dog in 9 (22.5%) of cases. Bites were classified as severe (WHO Category III-broken skin with bleeding) in 33 (82.5%) of cases with a severe dog bites incidence estimated at 4/100 person-years (CI95%: 2.8-5.6). The bites involved the hand or face in 1 (2.5%) case each (both Category III). In 20 incidents (50%), only rice was applied to the wounds. There were no suspected or confirmed human rabies deaths during the study period but one dog died after biting (2 others were lost to follow-up and 14 were put down by their owner). Our study documented an extremely high incidence of dog bites in of rural Cambodian adults and children. Adapted control policies for canine vaccination are urgently needed.

HAART has improved the well-being of many people living with HIV (PLWH). This study aimed at (i) comparing heterosexual practices between PLWH and the general population by gender, and (ii) identifying factors associated with sexual practices and at-risk behaviors in the two populations. Self-reported data were collected among PLWH attending hospitals (VESPA2 survey; n = 3022) and the general population (CSF survey; n = 10,280). Significant differences between the two samples were corrected for by implementing propensity score matching on both socio-demographic characteristics and sexual behavior in terms of number of partners. Men not reporting heterosexual intercourse were excluded. After matching, 61% of women (out of 707) and 68% of men (out of 709) were sexually active in both populations. PLWH practiced oral sex less than the general population and used condoms more consistently over the previous 12-month period, irrespective of having multiple sexual partners or not. For women living with HIV: those with several sexual partners and those consuming drugs over the previous 12 months were more likely to practice oral sex; those living in a couple for at least 6 years and migrants were less likely to practice anal intercourse. For men living with HIV: those reporting bisexual relationships and those with multiple sexual partners over the previous 12 months were more likely to practice anal heterosexual intercourse; migrants reported less oral sex, irrespective of HIV status. Error term correlations showed that anal intercourse was not linked to condom use for women or men from either population. Our results show that PLWH had a lower rate of heterosexual practices compared with the general population, and used condoms more often, irrespective of the number of sexual partners and strong cultural background (e.g., for Sub-Saharan African women). Further preventive information needs to be disseminated on the risk of infection transmission through heterosexual anal intercourse.

International audience; La lutte contre la désertification est une priorité, notamment dans les pays du Sud où vivent 75% de l'humanité et où les trois quarts de la population travaillent dans le secteur agricole. À partir d'une réflexion menée sur la caractérisation et spatialisation des pratiques (agricoles) et des ressources naturelles en interaction sur un espace donné, l'article décrit une chaîne de traitements thématiques pour modéliser des unités de paysages ruraux et les causes et intensité du risque de désertification afférents, ainsi que la plateforme logicielle géomatique qui la met en oeuvre. Via une interface utilisateur accompagnée d'une aide documentée, le logiciel SIEL permet le paramétrage et l'exécution de la chaîne de traitements. Les résultats obtenus sur des exemples illustratifs dans plusieurs observatoires circum-sahariens sont présentés. Ils ouvrent la voie aux discussions sur les perspectives et potentialités du SIEL dans les observatoires en appui à l'aide à la décision pour la lutte contre la désertification.

SUMMARYRapid population growth and economic change on the tropical islands of Mauritius have led to one of the highest rates of urban build-out in the world. Pressure on many of the island's natural features and resources increasingly risks further degradation to the environmental services that they provide to the country. Fourteen types of marine and terrestrial environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) are critical to the nation's sustainable development. Twelve of these ESA types are currently at risk of degradation, owing to their spatial proximity to built-up areas (BUAs) and current use designation. There was a bimodal distribution in proximity; eight of the 12 ESA types analysed had an area-weighted modal peak < 500 m from the nearest BUA, and four ESAs had a modal peak 2–3 km from the nearest BUA. Six coastal and marine ESAs had limited protection from urban expansion and over-use. The Mauritian experience reflects trends that are emerging across many tropical developing countries, where the bulk of future global growth in urban area is expected to occur. The approach detailed in this case study is replicable and may be useful in assessing degradation risk as a result of urban expansion in other island countries.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that has caused widespread outbreaks throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, with serious consequences for livestock-based economies and public health. Although there have never been any reports of RVF in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, it is a priority disease in the Maghreb, due to the threat of introduction of the virus through transboundary livestock movements or infected mosquito vectors. However, the implementation of surveillance activities and early warning contingency plans requires better knowledge of the epidemiological situation. We conducted a multicriteria decision analysis, integrating host distribution with a combination of important ecological factors that drive mosquito abundance, to identify hotspots and suitable time periods for RVF enzootic circulation (i.e. stable transmission at a low to moderate level for an extended period of time) and an RVF epizootic event (i.e. a sudden occurrence of a large number of infected animals over a large geographic area) in the Maghreb. We also modelled vector species distribution using available information on vector presence and habitat preference. We found that the northern regions of the Maghreb were moderately suitable for RVF enzootics, but highly suitable for RVF epizootics. The vector species distribution model identified these regions as the most favourable mosquito habitats. Due to the low density of animal hosts and arid conditions, the desert region showed low RVF suitability, except in oases. However, the presence of competent vectors in putative unsuitable areas underlines the need for further assessments of mosquito habitat preference. This study produced monthly RVF suitability maps useful for animal health managers and veterinary services involved in designing risk-based surveillance programmes. The suitability maps can be further enhanced using existing country-specific sources of information and by incorporating knowledge - as it becomes available - on the epidemiology of the disease and distribution of vectors in the Maghreb.

Food scares were associated with microorganisms, new technology, environmental pollution or changes in co-product management. Recently, there have been several notable incidences that are explained in this chapter. The term Traceability has appeared recently in international regulations but traceability was already used by industries to optimize their process and finance. The mad cow crisis, in 1996, showed the deficiencies in monitoring food and feed in the EU. Traceability is a tool that enables industrial flow management effectively in two ways (tracing and tracking). It permits to remove the food as quickly as possible from the market in case of incidents that can be detrimental for the health of the consumers. The mad cow crisis, dioxin, rejection of GMOs, avian influenza had developed a sense of mistrust of consumers in respect to the quality and food safety. It became mandatory to establish a robust traceability system to minimize the production and distribution of unsafe or bad quality food. This article gives information on the means that can be used to trace food and the operators, history of traceability, preventive policy to avoid crisis, GMOs, precautionary principle, European regulation on chemicals.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonosis, which may cause significant losses for the livestock sector and have serious public health implications. Egypt has been repeatedly affected by RVF epidemics, mainly associated to the importation of animals from sub-Saharan countries, where the disease is endemic. The objective of our study was the improvement of the surveillance and control strategies implemented in Egypt. In order to do that, first we evaluated the legal trade of live animals into and within Egypt. Then, we assessed the risk of Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) transmission within the country using a multi-criteria evaluation approach. Finally, we combined the animal trade and the risk of RVFV transmission data to identify those areas and periods in which the introduction of RVFV is more likely. Our results indicate that the main risk of RVFV introduction is posed by the continuous flow of large number of camels coming from Sudan. The risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is restricted to the areas surrounding the Nile river, and does not vary significantly throughout the year. Imported camels are taken to quarantines, where the risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is generally low. Then, they are taken to animal markets or slaughterhouses, many located in populated areas, where the risk of RVFV transmission to animals or humans is much higher. The measures currently implemented (quarantines, vaccination or testing) seem to have a limited effect in reducing the risk of RVFV introduction, and therefore other (risk-based) surveillance strategies are proposed., Author summary Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-transmitted disease, which may affect animals (ruminants and camels) and cause severe disease. Egypt has been affected by RVF in the past, and it is considered at risk because of the importation of animals from endemic countries. We developed a map of the risk of RVFV transmission by vectors using current knowledge on the disease, and then combined it with animal trade data to identify the areas at the highest risk for RVFV introduction. Our results indicate that the main risk is posed by camels imported from Sudan, when they are transported to animal markets or slaughterhouses, which are generally located in areas where the risk of RVFV transmission is much higher. In fact many of them are located in the proximities or within the main cities, resulting in an increased risk of RVFV transmission to humans.

De nombreux barrages-réservoirs ont été construits sur la Dordogne au cours du XXe siècle. Plusieurs études ont été publiées avant leur construction et il est frappant de constater l’absence de mentions du risque inondation alors que les vulnérabilités des habitants aux inondations à l’aval de ces ouvrages ont considérablement changé depuis leur construction. Cet article tente de comprendre pourquoi ces vulnérabilités ont été oubliées dans les projets d’aménagement des chutes d’eau de la Dordogne en s’appuyant sur des documents d’archives historiques. Il permet ainsi d’offrir un regard rétrospectif sur des vulnérabilités criantes de nos jours., A series of large hydro-electrical dams was built on the Dordogne River over the course of the twentieth century. Given the historical prevalence of floods in the basin, it is striking to find virtually no mention of flood risk or vulnerability in the technical studies and documentation that preceded construction of dams between the two World Wars. Drawing from local archival research, this article attempts to understand why flood risk and vulnerability was forgotten, or ignored, in the development of these projects. It gives us some retrospective insight into vulnerabilities that are very much present today.

Lambda-Mu, 20ème Congrès de maîtrise des risques et de sûreté de fonctionneme, Saint-Malo, FRANCE, 11-/10/2016 - 13/10/2016; In the E.U, safety railway system design and operational terms are governed by directives, regulations, decrees, standards to ensure the safety of the global system. However, based on its own technical and operational concepts, each state member of the E.U. has developed its own safety rules. By the way, this situation results in divergent practices and develops a need to harmonize methods and rail safety targets through the adoption of Technical Specifications for Interoperability (TSI), the definition of Common Safety Targets (CST) and the definition of a Common Safety Method (CSM). Through a risk management process, the residual risk reduction implies to allocate safety targets for each various parts of the railway system with SIL (Safety Integrity Level). After identifying specific uses of SIL, the authors present some consultation results. These results are obtained from discussion with various rail stakeholders (like rail operators, rail manufacturers and notified bodies). The objective is to highlight shared points and divergent point of a SIL allocation and to propose an harmonized SIL allocation methodology in the railway domain. More detailed in [Ouedraogo et al. 2015], a methodology implementation in the form of a practical application guide will help rail stakeholders, involved in the SIL allocation (rail manufacturers, system integrators, etc.), to answer this particular problematic.; Les conditions de conception et d'exploitation des systèmes ferroviaires au sein de l'U.E sont régies par des directives, des règlements, des décrets, normes qui permettent, notamment, d'assurer la sécurité du système global de transport. Cependant, chaque état membre de l'U.E. a développé ses propres règles de sécurité en se basant sur ses propres concepts techniques et opérationnels. Les pratiques divergentes qui résultent de ce constat suscitent aujourd'hui une volonté d'harmoniser les méthodes et les objectifs de sécurité ferroviaire via l'adoption de Spécifications Techniques d'Interopérabilité (STI), la définition d'Objectifs de Sécurité Communs (OSC) et la définition d'une Méthode de Sécurité Commune (MSC). Ainsi, la maîtrise du risque résiduel du système ferroviaire implique, au travers d'un processus de gestion des risques, d'allouer des objectifs de sécurité aux différentes parties du système, dont certains sont liés à des niveaux de sécurité, les SIL (Safety Integrity Level - niveau d'intégrité de la sécurité). Après avoir identifié les particularités de l'utilisation des SIL, les auteurs présentent les résultats de discussions issus de consultations avec différents acteurs ferroviaires (exploitants, organismes notifiés et constructeurs) sur les pratiques d'allocation des SIL. L'objectif est de mettre en avant les points qui font consensus et ceux, au contraire, qui font débat et de proposer au final, une méthodologie homogène d'allocation de SIL pour le domaine ferroviaire. Détaillée dans [Ouedraogo et al. 2015], la mise en oeuvre de cette méthodologie sous la forme d'un guide d'application pratique permettra aux différents acteurs concernés par l'allocation des SIL (donneurs d'ordre, constructeurs, systémiers, etc.) de répondre à cette problématique.

Locusts are grasshopper species that exhibit phase polyphenism resulting in the expression of gregarious behaviors that favor the development of large devastating bands and swarms. Desert locust preventative management aims to prevent crop damage by controlling populations before they can reach high densities and form mass migrating swarms. The areas of potential gregarization for Desert locust are large and need to be physically assessed by survey teams for efficient preventative management. An ongoing challenge is to be able to guide where prospection surveys should occur depending on local meteorological and vegetation conditions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between historical prospection data of Desert locust observations from 2005 to 2009 and spatio-temporal statistics of a vegetation index gathered by remote-sensing with the help of multiple models of logistic regression. The vegetation index was a composite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) given every 16 days and at 250 m spatial resolution (MOD13Q1 from MODIS satellite). The statistics extracted from this index were: (1) spatial means at different scales around the prospection point, (2) relative differences of NDVI variation through time before the prospection, and (3) large-scale summary of vegetation quantity. The multi-model framework showed that vegetation development a month and a half before the survey was amongst the best predictors of locust presence. Also, the local vegetation quantity was not enough to predict locust presence. Vegetation quantity on a scale of a few kilometers was a better predictor but varied non-linearly, reflecting specific biotope types that support Desert locust development. Using one of the best logistic regression models and NDVI data, we were able to derive a predictive model of probability of finding locusts in specific areas. This methodology should help in more efficiently focusing survey efforts on specific parts of the gregarization areas based on the predicted probability of locusts being present.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic in Asia, with live bird trade as a major disease transmission pathway. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in northern Vietnam to investigate the structure of the live bird market (LBM) contact network and the implications for virus spread. Based on the movements of traders between LBMs, weighted and directed networks were constructed and used for social network analysis and individual-based modeling. Most LBMs were connected to one another, suggesting that the LBM network may support large-scale disease spread. Because of cross-border trade, it also may promote transboundary virus circulation. However, opportunities for disease control do exist. The implementation of thorough, daily disinfection of the market environment as well as of traders’ vehicles and equipment in only a small number of hubs can disconnect the network dramatically, preventing disease spread. These targeted interventions would be an effective alternative to the current policy of a complete ban of LBMs in some areas. Some LBMs that have been banned still are very active, and they likely have a substantial impact on disease dynamics, exhibiting the highest levels of susceptibility and infectiousness. The number of trader visits to markets, information that can be collected quickly and easily, may be used to identify LBMs suitable for implementing interventions. This would not require prior knowledge of the force of infection, for which laboratory-confirmed surveillance would be necessary. These findings are of particular relevance for policy development in resource-scarce settings.

African swine fever was reported in domestic pigs in 26 African countries during the period 2009–2011. The virus exists in an ancient sylvatic cycle between warthogs ( Phacochoerus africanus ) and argasid ticks of the Ornithodoros moubata complex in many of the countries reporting outbreaks and in two further countries in the region. Eradication of the virus from the countries in eastern and southern Africa where the classic sylvatic cycle occurs is clearly not an option. However, the virus has become endemic in domestic pigs in 20 countries and the great majority of outbreaks in recent decades, even in some countries where the sylvatic cycle occurs, have been associated with movement of infected pigs and pig meat. Pig production and marketing and ASF control in Africa have been examined in order to identify risk factors for the maintenance and spread of ASF. These include large pig populations, traditional free-range husbandry systems, lack of biosecurity in semi-intensive and intensive husbandry systems, lack of organisation in both pig production and pig marketing that results in lack of incentives for investment in pig farming, and ineffective management of ASF. Most of these factors are linked to poverty, yet pigs are recognised as a livestock species that can be used to improve livelihoods and contribute significantly to food security. The changes needed and how they might be implemented in order to reduce the risk of ASF to pig producers in Africa and to the rest of the world are explored.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) have introduced normative and cognitive changes in response to the challenge of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). These changes take the form of a paradigm shift from 'an international management of threats' towards 'a global governance of risks'. The distinction between these two paradigms is developed in this paper based on literature on public health policy and on risk sociology. Here, we suggest that risks differ from threats (or classical risks) by being uncertain, global and anticipated catastrophes. They require an alternative paradigm of risk governance based on precaution, transparency and participation. To demonstrate empirically this shift, the paper analysed the WHO and OIE's response to recent EIDs, and in particular bird flu (H5N1). With H5N1, these organisations have shown an unprecedented ambition to handle a 'prepandemic' virus; they have called for increased transparency from Member States on their epidemiologic status, and for the inclusion of a wider range of stakeholders into the task of epidemiologic surveillance. This paper shows that the WHO and the OIE framed EIDs as modern risks and handled them using the 'global risks governance' paradigm. In doing so, they seized the opportunity, in a competitive way, to legitimise a wider scope of intervention for themselves by revising their regulatory tools (the International Health Regulation and the Terrestrial Animal Health Code) and by extending the obligations of the Member States via their system of notifiable events. This shift raises the issue of the instrumentalisation of the paradigm of global risk governance. It questions States' sovereignty, and stakeholder's participation and it highlights the political potential of modern risks, the link with the production of knowledge and the activity of surveillance in a world at risk.

L’adaptation aux aléas et la gestion du risque sont partout pris en compte dans les systèmes agraires traditionnels. En effet, le changement climatique global se traduit localement par plusieurs évolutions qui modifient les conditions de production. La présente étude s’intéresse à la compréhension des stratégies développées par les producteurs en situation de changements climatiques, de ses effets perceptibles dans le paysage agraire et les mesures mises au point pour y faire face. Elle s’est basée sur un échantillon de 270 producteurs dans diverses zones agro-écologiques du Nord-Bénin. L’impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture est multiple et pèse sur les personnes, le capital des exploitations et les résultats (systèmes d’élevage et de culture moins productifs). Pour faire face à ces impacts, les producteurs mettent en place des systèmes d’adaptation. Ils commencent en général par modifier leurs pratiques culturales. En effet, les agriculteurs changent de variétés (recherche de précocité comme facteur d’adaptation à la baisse de pluviométrie), voire d’espèces cultivées pour privilégier des cultures plus rustiques. Les pratiques culturales évoluent également aussi bien sur le plan des dates de réalisation que des techniques employées (abandon du travail du sol dans certains cas par exemple). L’utilisation des moyens de production (travail, intrants) est raisonnée pour tenir compte des risques : cela se traduit dans certains cas par l’extensification, ailleurs par la concentration des moyens sur des espaces « plus sûrs » (du point de vue de l’eau disponible notamment). Une autre voie d’adaptation explorée par les producteurs est basée sur le développement de nouvelles activités agricoles pour tenter de répartir les risques et/ou de s’adapter aux nouvelles conditions de production : introduction de nouvelles spéculations, implantation de cultures vivrières par certains éleveurs, pratique de l’élevage par les agriculteurs, développement du maraîchage et du petit élevage puis transformation des produits. Adaptation to hazards and risk management are both important considerations in most traditional land systems. As a matter of fact, global climate change is locally manifested through the evolutions which modify production conditions. This study is about understanding the strategies developed by the producers in climate change conditions, of its visible effects in the agrarian landscape and the policies set up to face it. It is based on a sample of 270 producers in the different agri-ecological areas in the North of Benin. The impact of climate change on agriculture is diverse and weighs on the people, the capital of exploitations of the results (stock rearing system and crops being less productive). To face these impacts, the producers have set up adaptation systems. They begin modifying their cultural habits. In effect, the farmers change the ranges (search for periodicity as factor of adaptation to the reduction of pluviometry), even the cultivated species to prioritize the hardiest crops. The farming habits also progress as well both in terms of achievement and for the techniques used (stopping work on the soil in certain cases for example). The use of the means of production (work, inputs) is thought to take into account the risks: this is manifested in some cases through extensification, elsewhere through the concentration of the means on the “more plausible” spaces (mainly concerning the available water). Another way of adaptation explored by the producers is based on the development of new agricultural activities in order to try to distribute the risks and /or to adapt themselves to the new conditions of production: integration of new speculations, implantation of food crops by some cattle-breeders, practice of rearing used by farmers, development of truck-farming and small rearing and finally the processing of the products.

A precise estimation and the characterization of the spatial variability of microclimate conditions (MCCs) are essential for risk assessment and site-specific management of vector-borne diseases and crop pests. The objective of this study was to estimate at local scale, and assess the uncertainties of Surface Microclimate Indicators (SMIs) derived from airborne infrared thermography and multispectral imaging. SMIs including Surface Temperature (ST) were estimated in southern Quebec, Canada. The formulation of their uncertainties was based on in-situ observations and the law of propagation of uncertainty. SMIs showed strong local variability and intra-plot variability of MCCs in the study area. The ST values ranged from 290 K to 331 K. They varied more than 17 K on vegetable crop fields. The correlation between ST and in-situ observations was very high (r = 0.99, p = 0.010). The uncertainty and the bias of ST compared to in-situ observations were 0.73 K and ±1.42 K respectively. This study demonstrated that very high spatial resolution multispectral imaging and infrared thermography present a good potential for the characterization of the MCCs that govern the abundance and the behavior of disease vectors and crop pests in a given area. (Resume d'auteur)

The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI) virus is now considered endemic in several Asian countries. In Cambodia, the virus has been circulating in the poultry population since 2004, with a dramatic effect on farmers’ livelihoods and public health. In Thailand, surveillance and control are still important to prevent any new H5N1 incursion. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but is a very challenging task in the absence of reliable disease data. In this work, we used spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to produce risk maps for HPAI H5N1 in poultry. We aimed to i) evaluate the performance of the MCDA approach to predict areas suitable for H5N1 based on a dataset from Thailand, comparing the predictive capacities of two sources of a priori knowledge (literature and experts), and ii) apply the best method to produce a risk map for H5N1 in poultry in Cambodia. Our results showed that the expert-based model had a very high predictive capacity in Thailand (AUC = 0.97). Applied in Cambodia, MCDA mapping made it possible to identify hotspots suitable for HPAI H5N1 in the Tonlé Sap watershed, around the cities of Battambang and Kampong Cham, and along the Vietnamese border.

This book has been published by Allenvi (French National Alliance for Environmental Research) to coincide with the 22nd Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP22) in Marrakesh. It is the outcome of work by academic researchers on both sides of the Mediterranean and provides a remarkable scientific review of the mechanisms of climate change and its impacts on the environment, the economy, health and Mediterranean societies. It will also be valuable in developing responses that draw on “scientific evidence” to address the issues of adaptation, resource conservation, solutions and risk prevention. Reflecting the full complexity of the Mediterranean environment, the book is a major scientific contribution to the climate issue, where various scientific considerations converge to break down the boundaries between disciplines. Cet ouvrage, publié par l'Alliance nationale de recherche sur l'environnement (Allenvi) à l'occasion de la 22e Conférence des Parties de la Convention Cadre des Nations unies sur le changement climatique (COP22) de Marrakech, est le fruit de la mobilisation de chercheurs et d'universitaires des deux rives de la Méditerranée. Il constitue une synthèse scientifique exceptionnelle sur les mécanismes du changement climatique, ses impacts sur l'environnement, l'économie, la santé et les sociétés de la Méditerranée. Il représente par ailleurs un précieux outil pour élaborer des réponses, fondées sur l'« évidence scientifique », en matière d'adaptation, de conservation des ressources, de solutions ou de prévention des risques. Mettant en exergue toute la complexité de l'environnement méditerranéen, cet ouvrage est une contribution scientifique majeure à la question climatique, au croisement des questionnements scientifiques dans une perspective de décloisonnement disciplinaire.

International audience; Zoonotic diseases cause 2.2 million deaths and 2.4 billion cases of human illness throughout the world. They are concentrated in lowand middle-income countries in Asia and Africa, but the whole world is at risk of a potential pandemic. To combat these diseases, the international organisations are promoting the One Health concept, which is aimed at jointly addressing human health, animal health and the environment. However, the implementation of this approach is encountering numerous technical, scientific and institutional difficulties. Research will facilitate this implementation. This is shown by the interdisciplinary research conducted in Africa and Asia, associating methods used in the fields of human health and animal health, as well as the different stakeholders within these sectors. The promising findings of this research are helping to define the content of the concept and prefigure the management of the One Health initiative.; Les zoonoses occasionnent 2,2 millions de victimes et 2,4 milliards de malades dans le monde. Elles se concentrent dans les pays d'Asie et d'Afrique à revenu faible ou moyen. Mais les menaces de pandémie pèsent sur toute la planète. Pour lutter contre ces maladies, les organisations internationales promeuvent l'approche " Une seule santé " (One Health), qui propose d'aborder conjointement la santé humaine, la santé animale et l'environnement. Toutefois, la mise en oeuvre se heurte à de multiples difficultés techniques, scientifiques et institutionnelles. La recherche peut faciliter cette mise en oeuvre. En témoignent des recherches interdisciplinaires conduites en Afrique et en Asie, qui associent des méthodes utilisées en santé humaine et en santé animale, ainsi que des acteurs de ces secteurs. Leurs résultats, prometteurs, précisent le contenu de l'approche et préfigurent la gestion d'" Une seule santé ".

We propose a metapopulation model for malaria with two control variables, treatment and prevention, distributed between different patches (localities). Malaria spreads between these localities through human travel. We used the theory of optimal control and applied a mathematical model for three connected patches. From previous studies with the same data, two patches were identified as reservoirs of malaria infection, namely, the patches that sustain malaria epidemic in the other patches. We argue that to reduce the number of infections and semi-immunes (i.e., asymptomatic carriers of parasites) in overall population, two considerations are needed, (a) For the reservoir patches, we need to apply both treatment and prevention to reduce the number of infections and to reduce the number of semi-immunes; neither the treatment nor prevention were specified at the beginning of the control application, except prevention that seems to be effective at the end. (b) For unreservoir patches, we should apply the treatment to reduce the number of infections, and the same strategy should be applied to semi-immune as in (a).

Dans son plan stratégique, le ministère de la Sécurité publique du Québec souligne les problèmes actuels de surpopulation carcérale au Québec. Ce phénomène peut contribuer à une augmentation des conflits vécus par les détenus et, par extension, à l’émergence des incidents disciplinaires. Dans un tel contexte, il semble nécessaire d’améliorer la gestion du risque lié à ce type d’incidents. Dans le cadre de cet article, l’objectif principal visé est de mettre à l’épreuve la validité prédictive du LS/CMI sur l’occurrence des incidents disciplinaires. L’échantillon consiste en 934 détenus incarcérés au Service correctionnel du Québec (SCQ) entre janvier et décembre 2007. Durant cette même période, tous les détenus ont été évalués dans les semaines suivant leur admission avec la version québécoise du LS/CMI. Les résultats permettent de confirmer l’efficacité du LS/CMI dans la prédiction des incidents disciplinaires, et ce, indépendamment de leur nature et de leur cible., The purpose of this study was to address the critical need to improve accuracy in risk assessment for prison misconducts and hence improve decision-making. With the increased prison crowding in the correctional facilities in Quebec, there is a critical need for the development of better instruments to assist clinicians in their task. Since February 2007, all offenders sentenced for a violent crime or to six month or more are now evaluated with the French-Canadian version of the LS/CMI. Although the LS/CMI is generally good at predicting recidivism, it was not specifically designed to predict prison misconducts. The present study investigates the potential predictive validity of the LS/CMI. The sample consisted of 934 male offenders sentenced for a violent crime or to 6 month or more in the Correctional Services of Quebec between February 2007 and December 2007. In general, results indicate that the LS/CMI can predict violent and non violent misconducts., En su plan estratégico, el ministerio de Seguridad pública de Quebec destaca los problemas actuales de sobrepoblación en las cárceles de Quebec. Dicho fenómeno corre el riesgo de contribuir al aumento de conflictos entre los detenidos y, por extensión, a la emergencia de incidentes disciplinarios. En ese contexto, se vuelve necesario mejorar la gestión de riesgos asociados a ese tipo de incidentes. El objetivo principal del presente estudio fue poner a prueba la validez predictiva del LS/CMI sobre ocurrencia de incidentes disciplinarios. La muestra consistió en 934 detenidos encarcelados en el Servicio correccional de Quebec (SCQ) entre enero y diciembre de 2007. Durante ese periodo, todos los detenidos fueron evaluados en las semanas que siguieron a su admisión con la versión canadiense del LS/CMI. Los resultados permiten confirmar la eficacia del LS/CMI en la predicción de incidentes disciplinarios independientemente de su naturaleza.

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging vector-borne zoonotic disease that represents a threat to human health, animal health, and livestock production, particularly in Africa. The epidemiology of RVF is not well understood, so that forecasting RVF outbreaks and carrying out efficient and timely control measures remains a challenge. Various epidemiological modeling tools have been used to increase knowledge on RVF epidemiology and to inform disease management policies. Aim: This narrative review gives an overview of modeling tools used to date to measure or model RVF risk in animals, and presents how they have contributed to increasing our understanding of RVF occurrence or informed RVF surveillance and control strategies. Methodology: Systematic literature searches were performed in PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge. Additional research work was identified from other sources. Results: Literature was scarce. Research work was highly heterogeneous in methodology, level of complexity, geographic scale of approach, and geographical area of study. Gaps in knowledge and data were frequent, and uncertainty was not always explored. Spatial approaches were the most commonly utilized techniques and have been used at both local and continental scales, the latter leading to the implementation of an early warning system. Three articles using dynamic transmission models explored the potential of RVF endemicity. Risk factor studies identified water-related environmental risk factors associated with RVF occurrence in domestic livestock. Risk assessments identified importation of infected animals, contaminated products, or infected vectors as key risk pathways for the introduction of RVF virus into disease-free areas. Conclusions: Enhanced outbreak prediction and control and increased knowledge on RVF epidemiology would benefit from additional field data, continued development, and refinement of modeling techniques for exploring plausible disease transmission mechanisms and the impact of intervention strategies.

We examined how fire hazard was affected by prescribed burning and fuel recovery over the first six years following treatment. Eight common Mediterranean fuel complexes managed by means of prescribed burning in limestone Provence (South-Eastern France) were studied, illustrating forest and woodland, garrigue and grassland situations. The coupled atmosphere-wildfire behaviour model FIRETEC was used to simulate fire behaviour (ROS, intensity) in these complex vegetations. The temporal threshold related to the effectiveness of prescribed burning in reducing the fire hazard was assessed from derivated fuel dynamics after treatment. The study showed that prescribed burning treatment was effective for the first two years in most of the Mediterranean plant communities analysed. Thereafter, all forests and shrublands were highly combustible with a fire line intensity of more than 5000 kW/m except for pine stands with or without oak (medium intensity of 2000 kW m −1 3 years after treatment). Low fire line intensity (900 kW m −1 ) was obtained for grassland which was entirely treatment-independent since the resprouter hemicryptophyte, Brachypodium retusum , is highly resilient to fire. Fire behaviour was greatly affected by fuel load accumulation of Quercus ilex in woodland, and by standing necromass of Rosmarinus officinalis in treated garrigue. Pure pine stands with shrub strata similar to garrigue showed a lower fire intensity due to wind speed decrease at ground level under tree canopy, underlining the advantage of maintaining a proportion of canopy cover in strategic fuel-break zones.

International audience; Food insecurity is a potentially uncertain, instable but also repetitive and severe phenomenon in all rural semi-arid regions of West Africa. However, it is still difficult to determine where and how it appears and whose categories of population are exposed and vulnerable to. From now on, politicians, humanitarian and technical experts are mainly basing their decisions on immediate and apparent indicators in spite of complex nature-society interactions analysis'. This is also why public and private interventions in non-food crisis context often are technically and ideologically oriented rather than locally and specifically based. Since the colonial era, there has been little change in the way to tackle rural and urban food poverty and vulnerability: agricultural intensification, food shortage, food purchase, food aid. Moreover, combined strategies against lower food insecurity situations are unable to eradicate them because real and long term food policies no longer exist in weak, poor and fragile States of western Africa after two decades of economic and political adjustement much debated. This article puts the emphasis on conceptual and methodological approaches currently used to investigate food insecurity for the future in the Sahel.; L'insécurité´ alimentaire constitue un marqueur historique des sociétés et des espaces sahélo-soudaniens d'Afrique de l'Ouest. Mais son diagnostic reste difficile en dehors des contextes de crise alimentaire car elle varie fortement dans le temps et dans l'espace. Se pose donc la question des lieux, des périodes et des méthodes pour caractériser l'insécurité, en assurer un suivi et tenter de la réduire. Or, experts et décideurs privilégient encore souvent les descriptions monographiques à l'analyse des interactions entre processus. Quant aux outils potentiellement mobilisables (système avancé d'alerte, diagnostics régionaux, protocoles d'intervention) et sans cesse améliorés, ils peuvent souffrir de politiques étatiques mal définies ou sans grands moyens. De même, la multiplication des acteurs peut se révéler un obstacle à une gouvernance efficiente du risque. De ce fait, les stratégies de lutte oscillent entre différentes approches conceptuelles et méthodologiques. Au-delà, ce sont aussi les enjeux (géo)politiques prévalant à leur choix qui se posent.

Our societies are facing risks for which international organizations such as the WHO, 0IE, FAO call for a new international health governance. This paper aims at analyzing the confrontation between this international governance and national specificities. Our analysis is based on empirical research conducted in Vietnam in 2008, on avian influenza (H5N1 ). It focuses on the period beginning with the first outbreaks in 2003 and ending in 2008. We highlight two phases in H5N1 management by the Vietnamese authorities : a first phase based on past experiences (i.e. SARS) and related to national issues such as the consolidation of the central power in relation to provincial authorities ; a second phase more in line with international governance principles and devoted to diplomatic issues such as WTO membership. This analysis concludes that international health governance should not underestimate the complexity of local situations, that taking into account national cultures of risk should not ignore local dynamics, and that focusing on constraints should not mask opportunities associated to risks., Nos sociétés sont actuellement confrontées à des risques sanitaires, souvent d'origine animale, qui amènent les organisations internationales telles que l' OIE, l'OMS et la FAO à promouvoir nouvelle gouvernance mondiale. Nous examinons ici la question des spécificités nationales dans ce projet de gouvernance. Notre analyse est basée sur une étude menée en 2008 au Vietnam sur 1 epizootie de aviaire (H5N1). Nous distinguons, sur la période étudiée allant de 2003 à 2008, deux phases dans gestion de ce risque par les autorités vietnamiennes : une première phase basée sur l'expérience nationale passée, notamment celle du SRAS, et répondant à des enjeux de légitimation interne du pouvoir central ; une deuxième phase plus conforme aux approches des organisations internationales et répondant à des enjeux de diplomatie internationale, liés en particulier au projet d'adhésion du pays à l'OMC. analyse montre que le projet de gouvernance sanitaire mondiale ne doit pas sous-estimer les complexités niveau local, que la considération des cultures nationales ne doit pas amener à négliger les dynamiques locales et que les contraintes ne doivent masquer les opportunités indissociablement liées aux risques., Figuié Muriel, Fournier Tristan. Risques sanitaires globaux et politiques nationales : la gestion de la grippe aviaire au Vietnam . In: Revue d’études en Agriculture et Environnement, Vol. 91, N°3, 2010. pp. 327-343.

Estos últimos años, los daños de origen natural que han afectado a la ciudad que sirve de sede al Gobierno boliviano condujeron las autoridades a aplicar nuevas políticas de gestión de los riesgos. Aquellas comenzaron a explorar a tientas la gestión de crisis teniendo en cuenta sus distintas fases: la emergencia, la recuperación y la reconstrucción. Las dos primeras fases les obligaron a pensar la organización de los auxilios y en particular el funcionamiento de albergues para los damnificados. La última fase les llevó a reflexionar sobre el riesgo y su gestión a largo plazo: en paralelo a la construcción de obras destinadas a resistir a las amenazas (violentas precipitaciones, crecidas, deslizamientos de terreno), establecieron mecanismos para retirar a las poblaciones damnificadas expuestas a las amenazas de origen natural reubicándolas en otras partes de la aglomeración de La Paz. Además del reconocimiento explícito de la impotencia de los gestores de los riesgos para reducir las amenazas, la política de reubicación demostró que tienen dificultades para concebir los riesgos en funcion de la identificación de elementos esenciales al funcionamiento de la aglomeración. Ces dernières années, les dommages d’origine naturelle qui ont affecté la ville où siège le gouvernement bolivien ont conduit les autorités à mettre en œuvre de nouvelles politiques de gestion des risques. Ainsi, elles ont commencé à explorer par tâtonnement la gestion de crise en prenant en compte ses différentes phases : l’urgence, la récupération et la reconstruction. Les deux premières phases les ont obligées à penser l’organisation des secours, en particulier le fonctionnement de refuges pour les sinistrés. La dernière phase les a amenées à réfléchir au risque et à sa gestion à long terme : parallèlement à la construction d’ouvrages destinés à résister aux menaces (violentes précipitations, crues, glissements de terrain), elles ont mis en place des mécanismes pour soustraire les populations sinistrées à l’exposition aux menaces d’origine naturelle en les relogeant dans d’autres parties de l’agglomération de La Paz. Outre la reconnaissance explicite de l’impuissance des gestionnaires du risque à réduire les menaces, la politique de relogement a démontré qu’ils ont des difficultés à concevoir les risques eux-mêmes en fonction des enjeux. In recent years, damages of natural origin have affected the town seat of the Bolivian government and these have led authorities to implement new policies of risk management. Thus, they have been seeking to manage crises by taking into account the various crisis phases: emergency, recovery and rebuilding. The first two phases have made them consider the organization of the assistance, in particular the management of shelters for the disaster victims. The last led them to think about risk and its long-term management: at the same time they have built works intended to withstand natural threats (violent precipitations, floods, landslides), and they have installed mechanisms to remove disaster victims from exposure to threats of natural origin by relocating them in other parts of metropolitan La Paz. In addition to the explicit recognition of the powerlessness of risk managers to reduce threats, the policy of relocation showed that they have difficulties in conceiving of risks in accord with what is at stake.

A Quito comme a Tours, certains espaces urbains font figure de marges parce qu’ils sont marques par diverses formes de risques (naturels, sanitaires, sociaux). Cet article, a travers la comparaison entre des environnements urbains du Nord et du Sud, interroge les liens entre risques et marges urbaines. Si le contexte est a priori tres different entre la capitale de l’Equateur et Tours, ville moyenne francaise, les versants nord-occidentaux de Quito et les bords urbains de la Loire ont en commun d’etre soumis a des aleas hydroclimatiques. Espaces porteurs de risques d’origine naturelle, ils sont plus encore marques par d’autres risques sociaux et par un imaginaire de la nature les distinguant du reste de la ville. Au-dela de ces representations relativement concordantes, l’analyse des politiques publiques revele un meme objectif : mieux integrer ces espaces a la ville. En revanche, des differences demeurent, liees aux contraintes du site, a la croissance urbaine et aux enjeux politiques.

L’inegalite face a la gestion du risque climatique (secheresse, inondation, cyclone, etc.) est l’un des determinants du processus de pauvrete. Un lien existe entre fatalites meteorologiques et aggravation des conditions de vie des foyers ruraux dont les revenus dependent essentiellement de l’agriculture. Quel peut etre le role joue par les services microfinanciers dans la gestion de ce type de risque ? Cet article se propose d’analyser un service de microassurance secheresse, une innovation majeure en termes de gestion du risque climatique. Apres avoir presente les limites des strategies formelles et informelles existantes, nous constaterons que cette innovation microfinanciere, si elle couvre les investissements productifs, ne permet pas de compenser les pertes de productions.

A partir de l’etude d’une organisation de microfinance implantee dans la Mixteca, region rurale caracterisee par une dynamique migratoire tres elevee, l’article illustre les risques potentiels que souleve la construction d’une intermediation financiere dans une zone de circulation intense de liquidite et les limites de celle-ci en termes d’attenuation de la vulnerabilite des menages et de reduction de l’incidence de la pauvrete dans ces localites. Deux niveaux d’analyse sont developpes. Le premier interroge les defis institutionnels et aborde les risques de defaillances des services de credit et d’epargne. Au travers d’une analyse de l’utilisation des services financiers du dispositif de microfinance, le second niveau revele les limites en matiere de diversification des activites economiques et par la meme de reduction de la vulnerabilite des menages dans un contexte ou la migration s’impose comme la strategie privilegiee de diversification des revenus et de reduction de la vulnerabilite.

La microfinance indienne s'est donnee pour objectif de favoriser l'acces des pauvres au systeme bancaire pour leur permettre d'investir et de devenir entrepreneurs mais aussi de les sortir « des griffes des usuriers ». En fait la microfinance vient s'inserer dans un marche financier informel deja tres actif, et elle interagit avec lui. L'etude presente une analyse de la facon dont les menages integrent et combinent les services financiers du secteur formel et informel, comment ils choisissent leur creancier en fonction de la nature de la depense a couvrir et du montant necessaire. Les credits du systeme formel ne viennent pas se substituer aux credits existants, mais ils sont une opportunite de credit de plus et, de ce fait, ils accroissent le volume de credits disponibles. Mais en augmentant l'offre ils facilitent le «jonglage» entre les differentes sources, et des pratiques de « cavalerie financiere ». Ils deviennent un risque pour ses utilisateurs a travers le surendettement.

Alors que la question du risque en microfinance a ete analysee principalement dans une perspective economique et technique, nos observations en Inde du Sud montrent que les pratiques quotidiennes sont imbriquees dans des relations locales, de nature a la fois sociale et politique. Loin de se limiter a des relations marchandes, reduites a des transactions financieres isolees de considerations personnelles, les relations entre emprunteurs et ONGs de microfinance sont basees sur des relations de clientelisme et de courtage, construites socialement grâce au role actif de courtiers de terrain qui jouent simultanement un role d'intermediaire, de mediateur, d'interface et d'ajustement. Comme dans toute relation de type patron/client, ces relations se caracterisent par la diversite des biens et services echanges, qu'ils soient de nature economique, sociale, morale ou politique : soutien, protection, loyaute sont au coeur de la relation. Elles sont aussi caracterisees par une reciprocite de type hierarchique, mais cette asymetrie n'empeche pas des formes de resistances et de protestation de la part des clients.

Dans la commune rurale d’Ampitatafika, dans les Hautes terres malgaches, la quasi-totalite de la population vit en dessous du seuil de pauvrete. L’economie est encore largement tournee vers l’autoconsommation et le risque majeur auquel est confrontee cette population est celui de ne pas pouvoir assurer la subsistance alimentaire du menage par sa propre activite agricole. L’objet de cet article est de montrer l’imbrication du denuement des menages et de leurs strategies anti-risques : recours a l’emprunt informel, vente de la force de travail, faible innovation agricole, rotation maximale infra-annuelle des cultures, mobilisation des reseaux sociaux, emigration etc. Rendant toute capitalisation impossible, la dynamique de ces enchainements perpetue le cercle vicieux de la pauvrete.

We aimed at characterizing commercial and traditional village poultry farming in Mali, with a focus on practices influencing the risk of transmission of avian influenza and Newcastle disease. Surveys were conducted in 2009–2011 in a study area covering approximately 98% of the Malian poultry population. Among the 282 commercial farms investigated, of which 64 had not been known by the government authorities, 83% were located within a 50 km radius from the capitals of the country and regions and 54% had low biosecurity standard. Among the 152 randomly selected village household flocks investigated, characteristics were overall similar to those in other African countries but some differences were notable including a large flock size (median 44 poultry), a low presence of ducks and geese (11% and 1.1% of flocks, respectively), vaccination against Newcastle disease being common (49% of flocks), a low proportion of households selling sick and dead birds (0.7% and 0%, respectively) and limited cohabitation between poultry and humans at night. Our recommendations to limit the risk of disease transmission include (1) for commercial farms, to introduce compulsory farm registration and accreditation, to increase technical proficiency and access to credit for farms with low biosecurity, and to support poultry producer associations; (2) for village poultry, to promote better quarantine and management of sick and dead birds. Such detailed knowledge of country-specific characteristics of poultry production systems is essential to be able to develop more efficient disease risk management policies.

In Southern Africa, the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the natural reservoir of foot and mouth disease (FMD). Contacts between this species and cattle are responsible for most of the FMD outbreaks in cattle at the edge of protected areas, which generate huge economic losses. During the late 1980's and 90's, the erection of veterinary cordon fences and the regular vaccination of cattle exposed to buffalo contact at the interface of the Kruger National Park (KNP), proved to be efficient to control and prevent FMD outbreaks in South Africa. However, since 2000, the efficiency of those measures has deteriorated, resulting in an increased rate of FMD outbreaks in cattle outside KNP, currently occurring more than once a year. Based on retrospective ecological and epidemiological data, we developed a stochastic quantitative model to assess the annual risk of FMD virus (FMDV) transmission from buffalo to cattle herds present at the KNP interface. The model suggests that good immunization of approximately 75% of the cattle population combined with a reduction of buffalo/cattle contacts is an efficient combination to reduce FMDV transmission to one infective event every 5.5 years, emulating the epidemiological situation observed at the end of the 20th century, before current failure of control measures. The model also indicates that an increasing number of buffalo present in the KNP and crossing its boundaries, combined with a reduction in the vaccination coverage of cattle herds at the interface, increases 3-fold the risk of transmission (one infective event per year).The model proposed makes biological sense and provides a good representation of current knowledge of FMD ecology and epidemiology in Southern Africa which can be used to discuss with stakeholders on different management options to control FMD at the wildlife livestock interface and updated if new information becomes available. It also suggests that the control of FMD at the KNP interface is becoming increasingly challenging and will probably require alternative approaches to control this disease and its economic impact.

Prioritisation of diseases is an essential tool for policy-makers in charge of allocating resources for surveillance and control programmes or for research projects, to target diseases that need to be addressed ahead of others. Nevertheless, methods for prioritisation need to be transparent, standardised and repeatable to be effective and objective in setting priorities. To date, various models have been developed, experimenting different approaches, but it remains some room for improvement in the design of such tools. The definition of the criteria – indicators used to assess diseases regarding the objective of the prioritisation exercise – is one of the cornerstones of the efficiency of the methodology. In previous developed methods, this step was usually poorly addressed and up to now, no standardised method has been developed and described to select relevant and accurate criteria. Through the use of an electronic-based questionnaire to collect data about criteria from a large population of respondents, this study, based on the analysis of zoonoses and their impact in Southeast Asia, aimed at investigating an innovative approach to identify criteria that ensure a good differentiation between the diseases. The findings of this study highlighted that refining an initial list of criteria using multivariate analysis was a reliable approach to select clear, accurate and relevant criteria that allow a differentiation between diseases for a further prioritisation exercise. Furthermore, this study indicated that using an electronic-based questionnaire, carefully designed, might be an interesting alternative of expert opinion elicitation, for the collection of data. Finally, the results of this study opened to other new perspectives to develop and improve methods for the prioritisation of infectious diseases.

Global changes affect host-pathogen interactions, through the modification of the epidemiological environment (climate, land use, biodiversity), leading to new and sometimes unexpected risks. Epidemics, emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases are outcomes of these changes, and they constitute serious global threats for health. Although some local emergences have a potential for global threat (i.e. SARS, avian influenza, etc.), most of infectious diseases affect rural and poor populations particularly in developing countries, which are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of global change. Southeast Asia is both a hotspot of infectious emerging diseases of potential global pandemics and of biodiversity, particularly at threat due to dramatic changes in land use (Morand et al. 2014). These may explain why international organizations, developmental agencies and non-governmental conservationist organizations have specially focused on Southeast Asia. Infectious diseases are still a major concern in most Southeast-Asian countries (Coker et al. 2011).

A partir des matériaux ethnographiques récoltés à Vargas (Venezuela) à la suite des coulées de boue de 1999, cet article se propose d'analyser l'émergence, la diffusion et les usages de la notion de risque dans le contexte de l'après-catastrophe. En se situant successivement au niveau des habitants, d'une association de quartier et de l'institution chargée de reconstruire, l'objectif est de comprendre les enjeux qui accompagnent la reconstruction et les différentes représentations que chacun de ces acteurs se fait du risque.

L'article que nous proposons s'inscrit dans le cadre des problèmes d'optimisation bimensionnelle (irrigation & salubrité) des ressources en eau durant la période d'étiage. Sur le cas du système NESTE, la résolution est effectuée selon deux approches :- un modèle de programmation dynamique avec état de dimension deux (niveau des réserves, niveau dans la rivière) où, dans la solution numérique, les variables sont discrétisées;- un modèle « synthétique » où l'on calcule une probabilité de non dépassement caractérisant l'état hydrique des ressources du système. Une règle empirique permet d'associer à cette grandeur une décision de consigne à effectuer.Les résultats numériques sont comparés sur une série de chroniques historiques. Les avantages et les inconvénients de chacune des deux approches sont mis en lumière sur le cas réel du système NESTE., This paper deals with bicreteria (irrigation & water quality) weekly operation of a water resource system during dry period. Two ways of handling the problem are assessed and compared on a real case study :- a stochastic dynamic programming modal with a two dimensional state (reservoirs level, river level) that is numerically solved by discretization ;- a more « synthetic » model where the state is expressed in term of a tail aera probability related to the consumption of all the present water resources in the future. A practical decision rule is based upon the associated critical value.Numerical results are plotted on historical varies for both methods.From the present application to the NESTE system, the conclusions are :1) Both procedures allow the system manager to formulate operating strategies in a rational way :- An operating rule can be derived to allocate water so as to meet a combination of the various objectives. It is expressed as a feedback law linking what we know from the state of the system to how we control its evolution.- Both methods need a parameter to be set up by stochastic simulation.- They give close results on the basis of the past data and can be conveniently proposed to system managers.2) The system analysis approach is based on stochastic dynamic programming. If can be efficiently used to derive optimal feedback ruses of operation and can routinely deal with complex decisions such as limiting irrigation when a shortage is to occur or take the risk to keep going and decrease output targets for water quality management. At the same time, this procedure entails heavy computing time, uneasy interpretation of the weighting coefficient between irrigation and water quality objectives, and a rather artificial elicitation of the global compromise.Such an approach is very well fit for simulation because it is composed of elementary blocks that are gathered in a transition relationship to describe the system's dynamic evolution. This approach also provides a means to get an optimal policy as long as the system manager accepts the necessity to formulate an objective function consistently with dynamic programming (i. e. stages are separable and additive). Of course this optimal allocation should be carefully examined because of modal uncertainties influencing both the system response and the hydrological behaviour.3) The synthetic method may appear more attractive from the engineering point of view for the following reasons :- the state is easily interpreted in terms of « dry year with a return period of 10, normal year, exceptionally wet year » and so on. The trade-off coefficient is the volume one wants to keep in the reservoirs at time T for a wet year. Consequently if the parameter is chosen with « good sense », no optimization scheme is needed.- there is no computation except a mass balance equation and a normal probability law adjustment which is very easy because it deals with cumulative quantities.4) Such models are designed to serve only as multicriterion decision making aids. In very dry days such as occurred in summer 1976 or 1989 in France they cannot create additional water resources... still, they can help the system manager by constant up dated multidimensional estimation of the risks that may be encountered when following different operation rotes. In the case of the NESTE system, a real-scale experiment began in 1989: in real time operation, both models worked on line as decision-making supports, and the system manager made a thorough study of the hydrological conditions when the two approaches did not agree on the same stragegy for the following week.

Cet article met en perspective trois objets construits dans le champ de la sante : la sante publique, l’ideologie humanitaire, la sante parfaite. Le premier objet, la sante publique, porte sur un champ de relations sociales ou la puissance symbolique du pouvoir therapeutique est particulierement structurante. Un droit a la sante est formule. L’ideologie humanitaire nous met en presence d’une ingerence compassionnelle realisee au nom d’un droit a la vie dont la medecine d’urgence apparait comme l’outil privilegie. Le droit a la vie se presente comme la forme minimale du droit a la sante. Enfin, la sante parfaite, dont la logique se developpe sous nos yeux, constitue un troisieme objet, prospectif, qui renouvelle les representations de la sante, puisqu’il s’agit d’un devoir de sante, dont le caractere imperatif amene a reformuler les positions respectives des acteurs reels et symboliques et la construction du lien social par la sante.

Floods in Nord -Pas-de-Calais (North France) ; a regional synthesis. The Nord-Pas-de-Calais region is one of the most vulnerable french territories to flood. The aim of this article is to write a regional sum up on risk based on two points of view : physical processes and social factors. We analysed, after the definition of risk as a combination of vulnerability and hazard, the different types of risk management at the regional scale., La région Nord -Pas-de-Calais compte parmi les régions de France les plus vulnérables au risque d'inondation. L 'objet de cet article est d'établir une synthèse régionale du risque mettant l 'accent à la fois sur les processus physiques en jeu et sur les facteurs sociaux qui fondent la vulnérabilité. La définition du risque amène à présenter les modes d'action publique en charge de gérer le risque inondation, à l 'échelle de la région., Laganier Richard, Kergomard Claude, Dacharry Monique. Les inondations en région Nord-Pas-de-Calais : essai de synthèse régionale. In: Collection EDYTEM. Cahiers de géographie, numéro 1, 2003. Dynamiques et vulnérabilités des milieux montagnards méditerranéens et alpins. Mélanges offerts au professeur René Lhenaff. pp. 233-245.

Article 5:7 of the SPS agreement of the WTO seems to provide the only available framework for referring to the precautionary principle as a means of settling international disputes. Yet are we sure it provides the adequate tool for this purpose? The present article shows there is no all-embracing answer to this question. Whereas important aspects of the precautionary principle are present in article 5:7, others are not. A discussion of the importance of the omitted features is presented; L'article 5:7 de l'accord SPS de l'OMC semble constituer le seul moyen de prendre en compte le principe de précaution dans les différends internationaux considérés par cet accord. Forme-t-il pour autant un cadre adéquat de mise en œuvre du principe ? Ce travail propose de répondre à cette question. Il montre que la réponse ne peut être univoque, certains aspects importants de la précaution étant oubliés de l'article 5:7, alors que d'autres y sont représentés. Une discussion de l'importance des oublis est alors présentée

Risk management is particularly problematic in cities with high density, subject to multiple dangers in a limited time-space frame. In such fast-growing metropolis of the developing world, ancient practices as much as more recent policies show an ever increasing awareness of the problem. Adopting a ternary definition of risk -hazard, vulnerability process, social perceptions -, we conducted a research on the flood risk in Addis-Ababa (Ethiopia). We focus on the urban evolution as a way to unveil the mechanism producing vulnerability; tackling the different paths at the origin of the dangers, we analyse the management policies and the social-spatial strategies directly or indirectly related to the threat. Addis-Ababa, founded in 1886, has a population of more than three million people and a significant part of its urban fabric is exposed to flood. The rainy season produces heavy flood, often with very important runoffs. Of this well known phenomenon, the vulnerability process has grown significantly due mainly to the practices and policies of the various stake holders. According to the 1997 report from the City’s Environmental Protection Bureau, several parts of the Addis-Abada have been damaged by floods and an estimated 8000 persons are still exposed, only to the rise in river levels. Attempts to prevent these disasters exist: building of flood retention walls and victims displacements. But despite those efforts, the problem remains mostly as it was, and a lot of urban dwellers live in a state of a latent flood risk, La problématique des risques se pose de façon spécifique en ville par la concentration de personnes soumises en même temps à des dangers multiples dans un espace restreint. Dans les métropoles à forte croissance des pays en développement, particulièrement exposées, des pratiques anciennes ou des politiques plus récentes montrent l’existence d’une préoccupation grandissante à l'égard de ce problème. En nous fondant sur une définition ternaire du risque: aléa, processus de vulnérabilisation et représentations sociales, nous proposons un décryptage du risque d’inondation à Addis-Abeba (Éthiopie). L’étude de l'évolution urbaine de la capitale est ainsi mobilisée pour éclairer les mécanismes de vulnérabilisation afin de cerner les modes d’émergence du danger et d’analyser les politiques de gestion et les stratégies socio-spatiales se rattachant explicitement ou indirectement à la menace. Addis-Abeba, fondée en 1886, possède une population de plus de trois millions d’habitants et les inondations concernent une grande partie de son tissu urbain. L’aléa d’origine naturelle, des crues exceptionnelles de saison de pluies et des ruissellements importants, est connu depuis longtemps, mais le processus de vulnérabilisation a fortement augmenté voire s’est accéléré par le jeu des pratiques et politiques des différents acteurs. Plusieurs parties de la ville ont déjà été endommagées par les inondations; en 1997 un rapport du service de protection de l’environnement de la ville estime à 8000 les personnes qui restent encore directement exposées aux seules crues. Des tentatives de réponse ont été apportées pour prévenir ces catastrophes: construction de digues ou déplacements des populations touchées. Il n’en reste pas moins que le problème dans son ensemble demeure et que beaucoup de citadins vivent dans une situation de risque latent d’inondation., Tamru Bezunesh. L'émergence du risque d'inondation à Addis-Abeba : pertinence d'une étude des dynamiques urbaines. In: Annales de Géographie, t. 111, n°627-628, 2002. pp. 614-636.

Pig production and pork consumption are very important to the People's Republic of China for both economic and cultural reasons. The incursion and spread of a disease such as African swine fever (ASF), which emerged in Eastern Europe in 2007, could have devastating socioeconomic consequences for both the Chinese and the global pig industry. The Chinese government consequently attributes a very high priority to ASF and is actively seeking to improve its preparedness. This paper discusses different drivers and pathways of potential emergence of ASF in China in light of the country's specificities, including international movements of people, pigs and pig products, swill feeding practices and wild boar populations. It suggests that effective ASF risk management in China will require a comprehensive and integrated approach linking science and policy and will need to involve all relevant stakeholders to develop realistic policies.

Research on health risks and their prevention focuses primarily on animals, plants and their pathogens. Yet, as discussed in the earlier chapters in this part of the book, production systems and activities developed by family farms call for the reorientation of this research to their specific needs and the expertise they have gained. Similarly, it is important for research outcomes to have social applicability. Even if not entirely dictated by familial forms of production systems, the work we present here is adapted to the specifics of family farming systems.

International audience; The environmental fate of organic waste-derived trace organic contaminants is a recent focus of research. Public awareness of this issue and concern about the potential risks are increasing, partly as a result of this research. Knowledge remains sparse but, due to growing waste volumes and contaminant concentrations, situations are arising where decisions are urgently needed and the stakes are high. We present an approach to provide stakeholders with the soundest possible information on relevant risks in specific situations where local experimental data are scarce or inexistent. With accuracy taking precedence over precision in such situations, the quantitative fate assessment aspect of the approach considers uncertainty at all levels in order to estimate best-to-worst-case (cumulative uncertainty) fuzzy fate ranges. The approach was applied to conditions that prevail on the island of Reunion. Contrasting possible organic residue recycling scenarios are considered in which trace organic contaminants originate either from pig slurry or sewage sludge. The stakeholders' concerns targeted are leaching, soil persistence and crop (sugarcane) shoot translocation. The fate assessment results in soil removal dynamics that vary over a wide range, even for a particular chemical in a particular scenario. For 3 out of 27 chemicals residual soil concentrations after one sugarcane crop cycle could possibly exceed the 100 ng/g dry weight mass fraction range, only in a worst case situation. Substances predicted to be of the highest mobility (erythromycin, ofloxacin, ciprofloxacin) might produce appreciable leaching only in the event of substantial rainfall shortly after a high rate decadal application. And only the higher bound sugarcane shoot concentration estimates of 17 alpha-ethinylestradiol and tris(chloropropyl)phosphate are significant. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.