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1. Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

Author

O'Sullivan, Michael, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Arora, Vivek K, Bastrikov, Vladislav, Delire, Christine, Goll, Daniel S, Jain, Atul, Kato, Etsushi, Kennedy, Daniel, Knauer, Jürgen, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, McGuire, Patrick C, Melton, Joe R, Nabel, Julia E M S, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Séférian, Roland, Tian, Hanqin, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P, Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Xu, Zaehle, Sönke, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and M.O.S., P.F. and S.S. have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 821003 (project 4 C).

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Carbon Sequestration, Multidisciplinary, 530 Physics, Uncertainty, General Physics and Astronomy, General Chemistry, Carbon Dioxide, Plants, Carbon, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Earth sciences, Soil, ddc:550, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecosystem
Abstract

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Published
2022

2. Additional file 1 of Disentangling land model uncertainty via Matrix-based Ensemble Model Inter-comparison Platform (MEMIP)

Author

Liao, Cuijuan, Chen, Yizhao, Wang, Jingmeng, Liang, Yishuang, Huang, Yansong, Lin, Zhongyi, Lu, Xingjie, Huang, Yuanyuan, Tao, Feng, Lombardozzi, Danica, Arneth, Almut, Goll, Daniel S., Jain, Atul, Sitch, Stephen, Lin, Yanluan, Xue, Wei, Huang, Xiaomeng, and Luo, Yiqi

Abstract

Additional file 1: Table S1. Model information and set-ups in MEMIP. Figure S1. Matrix model validations for each branch: (a) spatial pattern of the model difference between the regular and matrix form, and (b) the pixel level correlationships. Figure S2. The C storage potential (Xp) for the 4 branches (i.e., BGC_sg, CEN_sg, BGC_ml and CEN_ml) from 1900 to 2000. Figure S3. Correlations of soil temperature and soil water potential of C-only and CN models. Values are global mean annual outputs of top 5 layers from 1900 to 2000. Figure S4. Vertical distribution of soil temperature and soil water potential for global, high latitude land (latitude > 60��) and the rest land from CEN-ML and BGC-ML. The upper panel represents soil temperature and the lower panel represents soil water potential. Figure S5. Model outputs of (a) Mineral N, (b) Soil mineral N to plant, (c) N limitation to GPP and (d) LAI for different model members. Text S1. The soil-vegetation N competition. Text S2. Structural elements in soil baseline residence time. Text S3. Distinguish the contributions of model difference from process and feedback.

Published
2022
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3. Comparison of forest above‐ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation‐based estimates

Author

Yang, Hui, Ciais, Philippe, Santoro, Maurizio, Huang, Yuanyuan, Li, Wei, Wang, Yilong, Bastos, Ana, Goll, Daniel, Arneth, Almut, Anthoni, Peter, Arora, Vivek K., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Harverd, Vanessa, Joetzjer, Emilie, Kautz, Markus, Lienert, Sebastian, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., O'Sullivan, Michael, Sitch, Stephen, Vuichard, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, and Zhu, Dan

Subjects
13. Climate action, 15. Life on land, 530 Physik
Abstract

Gaps in our current understanding and quantification of biomass carbon stocks, particularly in tropics, lead to large uncertainty in future projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. We use the recently published GlobBiomass data set of forest above‐ground biomass (AGB) density for the year 2010, obtained from multiple remote sensing and in situ observations at 100 m spatial resolution to evaluate AGB estimated by nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The global total forest AGB of the nine DGVMs is 365 ± 66 Pg C, the spread corresponding to the standard deviation between models, compared to 275 Pg C with an uncertainty of ~13.5% from GlobBiomass. Model‐data discrepancy in total forest AGB can be attributed to their discrepancies in the AGB density and/or forest area. While DGVMs represent the global spatial gradients of AGB density reasonably well, they only have modest ability to reproduce the regional spatial gradients of AGB density at scales below 1000 km. The 95th percentile of AGB density (AGB95) in tropics can be considered as the potential maximum of AGB density which can be reached for a given annual precipitation. GlobBiomass data show local deficits of AGB density compared to the AGB95, particularly in transitional and/or wet regions in tropics. We hypothesize that local human disturbances cause more AGB density deficits from GlobBiomass than from DGVMs, which rarely represent human disturbances. We then analyse empirical relationships between AGB density deficits and forest cover changes, population density, burned areas and livestock density. Regression analysis indicated that more than 40% of the spatial variance of AGB density deficits in South America and Africa can be explained; in Southeast Asia, these factors explain only ~25%. This result suggests TRENDY v6 DGVMs tend to underestimate biomass loss from diverse and widespread anthropogenic disturbances, and as a result overestimate turnover time in AGB.

4. Recent global decline of CO 2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

Author

Wang, Songhan, Zhang, Yongguang, Ju, Weimin, Chen, Jing M., Ciais, Philippe, Cescatti, Alessandro, Sardans, Jordi, Janssens, Ivan A., Wu, Mousong, Berry, Joseph A., Campbell, Elliott, Fernández-Martínez, Marcos, Alkama, Ramdane, Sitch, Stephen, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Smith, William K., Yuan, Wenping, He, Wei, Lombardozzi, Danica, Kautz, Markus, Zhu, Dan, Lienert, Sebastian, Kato, Etsushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Sanders, Tanja G. M., Krüger, Inken, Wang, Rong, Zeng, Ning, Tian, Hanqin, Vuichard, Nicolas, Jain, Atul K., Wiltshire, Andy, Haverd, Vanessa, Goll, Daniel S., and Peñuelas, Josep

Subjects
13. Climate action, 530 Physik

5. Increased control of vegetation on global terrestrial energy fluxes

Author

Forzieri, Giovanni, Miralles, Diego G., Ciais, Philippe, Alkama, Ramdane, Ryu, Youngryel, Duveiller, Gregory, Zhang, Ke, Robertson, Eddy, Kautz, Markus, Martens, Brecht, Jiang, Chongya, Arneth, Almut, Georgievski, Goran, Li, Wei, Ceccherini, Guido, Anthoni, Peter, Lawrence, Peter, Wiltshire, Andy, Pongratz, Julia, Piao, Shilong, Sitch, Stephen, Goll, Daniel S., Arora, Vivek K., Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Kato, Etsushi, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Tian, Hanqin, Friedlingstein, Pierre, and Cescatti, Alessandro

Subjects
13. Climate action, 530 Physics, 15. Life on land

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