1. The importance of short lag-time in the runoff forecasting model based on long short-term memory
- Author
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Xi Chen, Zhiqiang Li, Yonggui Huang, Qingli Li, Liu Xiaoping, Hongkai Gao, Huang Jiaxu, Min Liu, Honggang Qi, and Zhen Han
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0207 environmental engineering ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Stability (probability) ,Long short term memory ,Lag time ,Statistics ,Benchmark (computing) ,020701 environmental engineering ,Baseline (configuration management) ,Surface runoff ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Water Science and Technology ,Mathematics - Abstract
It is still very challenging to enhance the accuracy and stability of daily runoff forecasts, especially several days ahead, owing to the non-linearity of the forecasted processes. Here, we hypothesize that short lag-time has a significant impact on forecasting results. Thus, we incorporate short previous time steps into long short-term memory (LSTM) and develop the Self-Attentive Long Short-Term Memory (SA-LSTM). In SA-LSTM, the self-attention mechanism is used to model interdependencies within short previous time steps. SA-LSTM is evaluated at eight runoff datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that, compared with state-of-art benchmark models, SA-LSTM achieves the best performance. The RMSEs of SA-LSTM are at least 2.3% smaller than that of the second best model at the seventh day. The NSEs and NSE_In of SA-LSTM are at least 4.6% and 6.4% higher than those of the second best model at the seventh day. Furthermore, SA-LSTM also surpasses the baseline methods for base, mean and peak flows. The superiority of SA-LSTM can be attributed to its exploitation of information in short lag-time.
- Published
- 2020