Search

With strong evidence of a common-spectrum stochastic process in the most recent datasets from the NANOGrav Collaboration, the European Pulsar Timing Array (PTA), Parkes PTA, and the International PTA, it is crucial to assess the effects of the several astrophysical and cosmological sources that could contribute to the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB). Using the same dataset creation and injection techniques as in Pol et al. (2021), we assess the separability of multiple GWBs by creating single and multiple GWB source datasets. We search for these injected sources using Bayesian PTA analysis techniques to assess recovery and separability of multiple astrophysical and cosmological backgrounds. For a GWB due to supermassive black hole binaries and an underlying weaker background due to primordial gravitational waves with a GW energy density ratio of $\Omega_{\mathrm{PGW}}/\Omega_{\mathrm{SMBHB}} = 0.5$, the Bayes' factor for a second process exceeds unity at 17 years, and increases with additional data. At 20 years of data, we are able to constrain the spectral index and amplitude of the weaker GWB at this density ratio to a fractional uncertainty of 64% and 110%, respectively, using current PTA methods and techniques. Using these methods and findings, we outline a basic protocol to search for multiple backgrounds in future PTA datasets., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted in ApJ

We present a new analysis of the profile data from the 47 millisecond pulsars comprising the 12.5-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), which is presented in a parallel paper (Alam et al. 2021a; NG12.5). Our reprocessing is performed using "wideband" timing methods, which use frequency-dependent template profiles, simultaneous time-of-arrival (TOA) and dispersion measure (DM) measurements from broadband observations, and novel analysis techniques. In particular, the wideband DM measurements are used to constrain the DM portion of the timing model. We compare the ensemble timing results to NG12.5 by examining the timing residuals, timing models, and noise model components. There is a remarkable level of agreement across all metrics considered. Our best-timed pulsars produce encouragingly similar results to those from NG12.5. In certain cases, such as high-DM pulsars with profile broadening, or sources that are weak and scintillating, wideband timing techniques prove to be beneficial, leading to more precise timing model parameters by 10-15%. The high-precision, multi-band measurements of several pulsars indicate frequency-dependent DMs. Compared to the narrowband analysis in NG12.5, the TOA volume is reduced by a factor of 33, which may ultimately facilitate computational speed-ups for complex pulsar timing array analyses. This first wideband pulsar timing data set is a stepping stone, and its consistent results with NG12.5 assure us that such data sets are appropriate for gravitational wave analyses., Comment: 62 pages, 55 figures, 5 tables, 3 appendices. Data available at http://nanograv.org/data/ and via DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4312887

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has recently reported strong statistical evidence for a common-spectrum red-noise process for all pulsars, as seen in their 12.5-yr analysis for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background. However, there is currently very little evidence for quadrupolar spatial correlations across the pulsars in the array, which is needed to make a confident claim of detection of a stochastic background. Here we give a frequentist analysis of a very simple signal+noise model showing that the current lack of evidence for spatial correlations is consistent with the magnitude of the correlation coefficients for pairs of Earth-pulsar baselines in the array, and the fact that pulsar timing arraysbare most-likely operating in the intermediate-signal regime. We derive analytic expressions that allow one to compare the expected values of the signal-to-noise ratios for both the common-spectrum and cross-correlation estimators., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures

Supermassive black hole binary systems (SMBHBs) emitting gravitational waves may be traced by periodic light curves. We assembled a catalog of 149 such periodic light curves, and using their masses, distances, and periods, predicted the gravitational-wave strain and detectability of each binary candidate using all-sky detection maps. We found that the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) provides almost uniform sky coverage -- a unique ability of the IPTA -- and by 2025 will improve NANOGrav's current minimum detectable strain by a factor of 6, and its volume by a factor of 216. Moreover, IPTA will reach detection sensitivities for three candidates by 2025, and 13 by the end of the decade, enabling us to constrain the underlying empirical relations used to estimate SMBH masses. We find that we can in fact already constrain the mass of a binary in Mrk 504 to $M, 11 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Pulsar timing array (PTA) searches for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) typically include time-correlated "red" noise models intrinsic to each pulsar. Using a simple simulated PTA dataset with an injected GWB signal we show that the details of the red noise models used, including the choice of amplitude priors and even which pulsars have red noise, have a striking impact on the GWB statistics, including both upper limits and estimates of the GWB amplitude. We find that the standard use of uniform priors on the red noise amplitude leads to 95% upper limits, as calculated from one-sided Bayesian credible intervals, that are less than the injected GWB amplitude 50% of the time. In addition, amplitude estimates of the GWB are systematically lower than the injected value by 10-40%, depending on which models and priors are chosen for the intrinsic red noise. We tally the effects of model and prior choice and demonstrate how a "dropout" model, which allows flexible use of red noise models in a Bayesian approach, can improve GWB estimates throughout., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures

We present time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and timing models of 47 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) observed from 2004 to 2017 at the Arecibo Observatory and the Green Bank Telescope by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). The observing cadence was three to four weeks for most pulsars over most of this time span, with weekly observations of six sources. These data were collected for use in low-frequency gravitational wave searches and for other astrophysical purposes. We detail our observational methods and present a set of TOA measurements, based on "narrowband" analysis, in which many TOAs are calculated within narrow radio-frequency bands for data collected simultaneously across a wide bandwidth. A separate set of "wideband" TOAs will be presented in a companion paper. We detail a number of methodological changes compared to our previous work which yield a cleaner and more uniformly processed data set. Our timing models include several new astrometric and binary pulsar measurements, including previously unpublished values for the parallaxes of PSRs J1832-0836 and J2322+2057, the secular derivatives of the projected semi-major orbital axes of PSRs J0613-0200 and J2229+2643, and the first detection of the Shapiro delay in PSR J2145-0750. We report detectable levels of red noise in the time series for 14 pulsars. As a check on timing model reliability, we investigate the stability of astrometric parameters across data sets of different lengths. We report flux density measurements for all pulsars observed. Searches for stochastic and continuous gravitational waves using these data will be subjects of forthcoming publications., Comment: 54 pages, 52 figures, 7 tables, 1 appendix. Data are available at http://nanograv.org/data/ and via the DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4312297

We have used X-ray data from the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) to search for long time-scale, correlated variations ("red noise") in the pulse times of arrival from the millisecond pulsars PSR J1824$-$2452A and PSR B1937+21. These data more closely track intrinsic noise because X-rays are unaffected by the radio-frequency dependent propagation effects of the interstellar medium. Our Bayesian search methodology yields strong evidence (natural log Bayes factor of $9.634 \pm 0.016$) for red noise in PSR J1824$-$2452A, but is inconclusive for PSR B1937+21. In the interest of future X-ray missions, we devise and implement a method to simulate longer and higher precision X-ray datasets to determine the timing baseline necessary to detect red noise. We find that the red noise in PSR B1937+21 can be reliably detected in a 5-year mission with a time-of-arrival (TOA) error of 2 microseconds and an observing cadence of 20 observations per month compared to the 5 microsecond TOA error and 11 observations per month that NICER currently achieves in PSR B1937+21. We investigate detecting red noise in PSR B1937+21 with other combinations of observing cadences and TOA errors. We also find that an injected stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) with an amplitude of $A_{\rm GWB}=2\times10^{-15}$ and spectral index of $\gamma_{\rm GWB}=13/3$ can be detected in a pulsar with similar TOA precision to PSR B1937+21, but with no additional red noise, in a 10-year mission that observes the pulsar 15 times per month and has an average TOA error of 1 microsecond., Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures

In this paper, we describe the International Pulsar Timing Array second data release, which includes recent pulsar timing data obtained by three regional consortia: the European Pulsar Timing Array, the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves, and the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. We analyse and where possible combine high-precision timing data for 65 millisecond pulsars which are regularly observed by these groups. A basic noise analysis, including the processes which are both correlated and uncorrelated in time, provides noise models and timing ephemerides for the pulsars. We find that the timing precisions of pulsars are generally improved compared to the previous data release, mainly due to the addition of new data in the combination. The main purpose of this work is to create the most up-to-date IPTA data release. These data are publicly available for searches for low-frequency gravitational waves and other pulsar science., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS and in review, 23 pages, 5 figures

In this paper we introduce a new Python package, the Pulsar Signal Simulator, or PsrSigSim, which is designed to simulate a pulsar signal from emission at the pulsar, through the interstellar medium, to observation by a radio telescope, and digitization in a standard data format. We use the PsrSigSim to simulate observations of three millisecond pulsars, PSRs J1744--1134, B1855+09, and B1953+29, to explore the covariances between frequency-dependent parameters, such as variations in the dispersion measure (DM), pulse profile evolution with frequency, and pulse scatter broadening. We show that the PsrSigSim can produce realistic simulated data and can accurately recover the parameters injected into the data. We also find that while there are covariances when fitting DM variations and frequency-dependent parameters, they have little effect on timing precision. Our simulations also show that time-variable scattering delays decrease the accuracy and increase the variability of the recovered DM and frequency-dependent parameters. Despite this, our simulations also show that the time-variable scattering delays have little impact on the root mean square of the timing residuals. This suggests that the variability seen in recovered DM, when time-variable scattering delays are present, is due to a covariance between the two parameters, with the DM modeling out the additional scattering delays., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the $12.5$-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. Our analysis finds strong evidence of a stochastic process, modeled as a power-law, with common amplitude and spectral slope across pulsars. The Bayesian posterior of the amplitude for an $f^{-2/3}$ power-law spectrum, expressed as the characteristic GW strain, has median $1.92 \times 10^{-15}$ and $5\%$--$95\%$ quantiles of $1.37$--$2.67 \times 10^{-15}$ at a reference frequency of $f_\mathrm{yr} = 1 ~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. The Bayes factor in favor of the common-spectrum process versus independent red-noise processes in each pulsar exceeds $10,000$. However, we find no statistically significant evidence that this process has quadrupolar spatial correlations, which we would consider necessary to claim a GWB detection consistent with general relativity. We find that the process has neither monopolar nor dipolar correlations, which may arise from, for example, reference clock or solar system ephemeris systematics, respectively. The amplitude posterior has significant support above previously reported upper limits; we explain this in terms of the Bayesian priors assumed for intrinsic pulsar red noise. We examine potential implications for the supermassive black hole binary population under the hypothesis that the signal is indeed astrophysical in nature., Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 5 tables, 3 appendices. Published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Please send any comments/questions to Joseph Simon (joe.simon@nanograv.org). Jupyter notebook tutorials and some MCMC chain files are available at https://github.com/nanograv/12p5yr_stochastic_analysis

Observations indicate that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at their centers. When galaxies merge, their component black holes form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs), which emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) that can be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). We have searched the recently-released North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GWs from individual SMBHBs in circular orbits. As we did not find strong evidence for GWs in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strength of GWs from such sources as a function of GW frequency and sky location. We placed a sky-averaged upper limit on the GW strain of $h_0 < 7.3(3) \times 10^{-15}$ at $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz. We also developed a technique to determine the significance of a particular signal in each pulsar using ``dropout' parameters as a way of identifying spurious signals in measurements from individual pulsars. We used our upper limits on the GW strain to place lower limits on the distances to individual SMBHBs. At the most-sensitive sky location, we ruled out SMBHBs emitting GWs with $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz within 120 Mpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^9 \, M_\odot$, and within 5.5 Gpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^{10} \, M_\odot$. We also determined that there are no SMBHBs with $\mathcal{M} > 1.6 \times 10^9 \, M_\odot$ emitting GWs in the Virgo Cluster. Finally, we estimated the number of potentially detectable sources given our current strain upper limits based on galaxies in Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and merger rates from the Illustris cosmological simulation project. Only 34 out of 75,000 realizations of the local Universe contained a detectable source, from which we concluded it was unsurprising that we did not detect any individual sources given our current sensitivity to GWs., 10 pages, 11 figures. Accepted by Astrophysical Journal. Please send any comments/questions to S. J. Vigeland (vigeland@uwm.edu)

Pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations in North America, Australia, and Europe, have been exploiting the exquisite timing precision of millisecond pulsars over decades of observations to search for correlated timing deviations induced by gravitational waves (GWs). PTAs are sensitive to the frequency band ranging just below 1 nanohertz to a few tens of microhertz. The discovery space of this band is potentially rich with populations of inspiraling supermassive black-holes binaries, decaying cosmic string networks, relic post-inflation GWs, and even non-GW imprints of axionic dark matter. This article aims to provide an understanding of the exciting open science questions in cosmology, galaxy evolution, and fundamental physics that will be addressed by the detection and study of GWs through PTAs. The focus of the article is on providing an understanding of the mechanisms by which PTAs can address specific questions in these fields, and to outline some of the subtleties and difficulties in each case. The material included is weighted most heavily towards the questions which we expect will be answered in the near-term with PTAs; however, we have made efforts to include most currently anticipated applications of nanohertz GWs., Comment: Accepted to The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review (A&ARv)

Gravitational waves emitted by high redshift sources propagate through various epochs of the Universe including the current era of measurable, accelerated expansion. Historically, the calculation of gravitational wave power on cosmological backgrounds is based on various simplifications, including a $1/r$-expansion and the use of an algebraic projection to retrieve the radiative degrees of freedom. On a de Sitter spacetime, recent work has demonstrated that many of these calculational techniques and approximations do not apply. Here we calculate the power emitted by a binary system on a de Sitter background using techniques tailored to de Sitter spacetime. The common expression for the power radiated by this source in an FLRW spacetime, calculated using far wave-zone techniques, gives the same expression as the late time expansion specialized to the de Sitter background in the high-frequency approximation., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in PRD

The quotient of the conformal group of Euclidean 4-space by its Weyl subgroup results in a geometry possessing many of the properties of relativistic phase space, including both a natural symplectic form and non-degenerate Killing metric. We show that the general solution posesses orthogonal Lagrangian submanifolds, with the induced metric and the spin connection on the submanifolds necessarily Lorentzian, despite the Euclidean starting pont. By examining the structure equations of the biconformal space in an orthonormal frame adapted to its phase space properties, we also find that two new tensor fields exist in this geometry, not present in Riemannian geometry. The first is a combination of the Weyl vector with the scale factor on the metric, and determines the timelike directions on the submanifolds. The second comes from the components of the spin connection, symmetric with respect to the new metric. Though this field comes from the spin connection it transforms homogeneously. Finally, we show that in the absence of conformal curvature or sources, the configuration space has geometric terms equivalent to a perfect fluid and a cosmological constant., Comment: 26 pages, no figures. Appreciable introductory material added. Results substantially strengthened and explained. New results concerning dark matter and dark energy candidates added to this version

General relativity can be constructed as a gauge theory using the quotient manifold strategy of [1, 2]. We consider a conformal gauging where the geometry is far richer than normal spacetime, including a symplectic form and the necessary emergence of Lorentzian signature. The resulting 2n-dim manifold constitutes a relativistic phase space, and general relativity is recovered when we demand that the momentum space is flat. However, the full geometry allows for curved phase space.