Search

The scarlet fever incidence has increased drastically in recent years in China. However, the long-term relationship between climate variation and scarlet fever remains contradictory, and an early detection system is lacking. In this study, we aim to explore the potential long-term effects of variations in monthly climatic parameters on scarlet fever and to develop an early scarlet-fever detection tool. Data comprising monthly scarlet fever cases and monthly average climatic variables from 2004 to 2017 were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and National Meteorological Science Center, respectively. We used a negative binomial multivariable regression to assess the long-term impacts of weather parameters on scarlet fever and then built a novel forecasting technique by integrating an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) based on the significant meteorological drivers. Scarlet fever was a seasonal disease that predominantly peaked in spring and winter. The regression results indicated that a 1 °C increment in the monthly average temperature and a 1-h increment in the monthly aggregate sunshine hours were associated with 17.578% (95% CI 7.674 to 28.393%) and 0.529% (95% CI 0.035 to 1.025%) increases in scarlet fever cases, respectively; a 1-hPa increase in the average atmospheric pressure at a 1-month lag was associated with 12.996% (95% CI 9.972 to 15.919%) decrements in scarlet fever cases. Based on the model evaluation criteria, the best-performing basic and combined approaches were ARDL(1,0,0,1) and ARDL(1,0,0,1)-NARNN(5, 22), respectively, and this hybrid approach comprised smaller performance measures in both the training and testing stages than those of the basic model. Climate variability has a significant long-term influence on scarlet fever. The ARDL-NARNN technique with the incorporation of meteorological drivers can be used to forecast the future epidemic trends of scarlet fever. These findings may be of great help for the prevention and control of scarlet fever.

Objective Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China, and contriving a long-term forecast is a useful aid for better launching prevention initiatives. Regrettably, such a forecasting method with robust and accurate performance is still lacking. Here, we aim to investigate its potential of the error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework through a series of comparative experiments to analyze and forecast its secular epidemic seasonality and trends of TB incidence in China. Methods We collected the TB incidence data from January 1997 to August 2019, and then partitioning the data into eight different training and testing subsamples. Thereafter, we constructed the ETS and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models based on the training subsamples, and multiple performance indices including the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error, and mean error rate were adopted to assess their simulation and projection effects. Results In the light of the above performance measures, the ETS models provided a pronounced improvement for the long-term seasonality and trend forecasting in TB incidence rate over the SARIMA models, be it in various training or testing subsets apart from the 48-step ahead forecasting. The descriptive results to the data revealed that TB incidence showed notable seasonal characteristics with predominant peaks of spring and early summer and began to be plunging at on average 3.722% per year since 2008. However, this rate reduced to 2.613% per year since 2015 and furthermore such a trend would be predicted to continue in years ahead. Conclusion The ETS framework has the ability to conduct long-term forecasting for TB incidence, which may be beneficial for the long-term planning of the TB prevention and control. Additionally, considering the predicted dropping rate of TB morbidity, more particular strategies should be formulated to dramatically accelerate progress towards the goals of the End TB Strategy.

Purpose Qinghai province has invariably been under an ongoing threat of tuberculosis (TB), which has not only been an obstacle to local development but also hampers the prevention and control process for ending the TB epidemic. Forecasting for future epidemics will serve as the base for early detection and planning resource requirements. Here, we aim to develop an advanced detection technique driven by the recent TB incidence series, by fusing a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with a neural network nonlinear autoregression (NNNAR). Methods We collected the TB incidence data between January 2004 and December 2016. Subsequently, the subsamples from January 2004 to December 2015 were employed to measure the efficiency of the single SARIMA, NNNAR, and hybrid SARIMA-NNNAR approaches, whereas the hold-out subsamples were used to test their predictive performances. We finally selected the best-performing technique by considering minimum metrics including the mean absolute error, root-mean-squared error, mean absolute percentage error and mean error rate . Results During 2004-2016, the reported TB cases totaled 71,080 resulting in the morbidity of 97.624 per 100,000 persons annually in Qinghai province and showed notable peak activities in late winter and early spring. Moreover, the TB incidence rate was surging by 5% per year. According to the above-mentioned criteria, the best-fitting basic and hybrid techniques consisted of SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,0)12, NNNAR(7,1,4)12 and SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,0)12-NNNAR(3,1,7)12, respectively. Amongst them, the hybrid technique showed superiority in both mimic and predictive parts, with the lowest values of the measured metrics in both the parts. The sensitivity analysis indicated the same results. Conclusion The best-mimicking SARIMA-NNNAR hybrid model outperforms the best-simulating basic SARIMA and NNNAR models, and has a potential application in forecasting and assessing the TB epidemic trends in Qinghai. Furthermore, faced with the major challenge of the ongoing upsurge in TB incidence in Qinghai, there is an urgent need for formulating specific preventive and control measures.

Environmental exposure to metals, including essential and nonessential elements, may be related to semen quality. Our goal was to explore the continuous relationship between seminal metals and sperm parameters. A restricted cubic spline (RCS) was applied to automatic selection criteria to ascertain the optimal smoothing degree. We recruited 841 male volunteers from Henan Province, China. Eighteen seminal metals, namely Al, Cr, Mn, Cu, Zn, Se, As, Ni, Cd, Pb, Co, V, Rb, Ag, Ba, TI, Fe, and Li, and 21 semen parameters were detected. Seminal malondialdehyde (MDA) was also detected to express oxidative stress. We revealed a non-linear relationship of the vanadium and chromium exposure to semen parameters. There were inverse 'U' shapes found between seminal Cr and sperm concentrations, total sperm count, and semen quality. The best semen quality was observed when the seminal Cr concentration was 5.05 ppb, and an increase or decrease in chromium concentration led to decreased semen quality. The V concentration was associated with reduced sperm concentration, total sperm count, normal morphology, and progressive motility at high doses (V 0.58 ppb). Seminal MDA had a strong adverse association with sperm motility parameters, such as curve line velocity (VCL) (P 0.001), straight line velocity (VSL) (P = 0.004), velocity of average path (VAP) (P 0.001), and lateral head movement (ALH) (P = 0.001), whereas it was adversely associated with seminal Zn (β [95% confidence interval (CI)], -0.28(-0.41-0.16), P 0.001) after adjusting for confounding factors. Our findings represent the curves of the dose-response relationship between seminal Cr, seminal V, and semen quality, in which seminal MDA was a good indicator of sperm movement. These models provide new insight into the dose-relationship between metal exposure and semen quality, and further investigation is needed to validate this.

In this study, we proposed a new data-driven hybrid technique by integrating an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), with a nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network (NARANN), called the EEMD-ARIMA-NARANN model, to perform time series modeling and forecasting based on the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality data from 28 February 2020 to 27 June 2020 in South Africa and Nigeria. By comparing the accuracy level of forecasting measurements with the basic ARIMA and NARANN models, it was shown that this novel data-driven hybrid model did a better job of capturing the dynamic changing trends of the target data than the others used in this work. Our proposed mixture technique can be deemed as a helpful policy-supportive tool to plan and provide medical supplies effectively. The overall confirmed cases and deaths were estimated to reach around 176,570 [95% uncertainty level (UL) 173,607 to 178,476] and 3454 (95% UL 3384 to 3487), respectively, in South Africa, along with 32,136 (95% UL 31,568 to 32,641) and 788 (95% UL 775 to 804) in Nigeria on 12 July 2020 using this data-driven EEMD-ARIMA-NARANN hybrid technique. The contributions of this study include three aspects. First, the proposed hybrid model can better capture the dynamic dependency characteristics compared with the individual models. Second, this new data-driven hybrid model is constructed in a more reasonable way relative to the traditional mixture model. Third, this proposed model may be generalized to estimate the epidemic patterns of COVID-19 in other regions.

Enterovirus (EV) 71 infection has been widely acknowledged as the leading cause of severe hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), which may rapidly lead to fatal pulmonary edema. In this study, we established a mouse model for EV71 infection exhibiting high incidence of severe symptoms with pulmonary edema. Mast cells (MCs) accumulation, activation and allergic inflammation were found in the brains, lungs and skeletal muscle of mice after EV71 infection, especially in the lungs of mice. Levels of histamine, platelet-activating factor (PAF), interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5, IL-13, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), nitric oxide (NO), endocrine gland-derived vascular endothelial growth factor (EG-VEGF) and noradrenaline (NA) were increased in EV71-infected lungs. In addition, EV71 infection reduced the number of pulmonary T cells, dendritic cells (DCs) and monocytes, and increased the number of lung eosinophils, Tregs and MCs. MCs number and tryptase expression in target organs or tissues posed a trend towards an increase from control to severe mice. There were positive correlations between MCs number in the brains (r = 0.701, P = 0.003), lungs (r = 0.802, P

// Dejian Dang 1 , Chao Zhang 1 , Rongguang Zhang 1, 2 , Weidong Wu 2, 3 , Shuaiyin Chen 1 , Jingchao Ren 2, 3 , Peng Zhang 1 , Guangyuan Zhou 3 , Demin Feng 4 , Tiantian Sun 1 , Ying Li 1 , Qiaoli Liu 1 , Mengchen Li 1 , Yuanlin Xi 1 , Yuefei Jin 1 and Guangcai Duan 1, 2 1 Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, People's Republic of China 2 Henan Collaborative Innovation Center of Molecular Diagnosis and Laboratory Medicine, Xinxiang, People's Republic of China 3 School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, People's Republic of China 4 The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, People's Republic of China Correspondence to: Guangcai Duan, email: gcduan@zzu.edu.cn Yuefei Jin, email: jinyuefeixuanchuan@163.com Keywords: hand foot mouth disease, enterovirus71, inducible nitric oxide synthase, mitochondrial damage, BALB/c mice Received: July 22, 2017 Accepted: August 28, 2017 Published: September 23, 2017 ABSTRACT Enterovirus71 (EV71) is recognized as the main causative agent of severe hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, the pathogenesis of EV71 infection has not been well characterized. Clinical evidence indicated that inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) induction in the lung of HFMD patients contributes to the severe symptoms of pulmonary edema. In the present study, we recruited 142 subjects including HFMD patients and controls, and serum level of nitric oxide (NO) was determined. Next, cellular and animal model were used to further investigate the roles of iNOS and mitochondria damage during EV71 infection. Serum NO level in HFMD patients with mild or severe symptoms was higher than that in controls, and there was a trend towards an increase in the serum NO level of severe cases relative to mild cases. EV71 infection caused apoptosis and increased levels of NO, iNOS, superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and malondialdehyde (MDA), and degraded mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm) in vitro . Pathological alterations of mitochondrial morphology were observed in vitro and in vivo . Furthermore, the expression of iNOS levels in target organs including brain, spinal cord, skeletal muscle, lung and heart were increased with the progression of the pathogenesis of EV71 infection in mice. Taken together, iNOS and mitochondrial damage participate in the pathogenesis of EV71 infection.

Studies in animals suggest an adverse effect of high-level lead exposure on male reproductive outcomes. However, evidence of the effects of low-level lead exposure is inconsistent. The purpose of our study was to explore the relationship between low-level lead exposure from daily environmental contaminants and semen quality in a community population without occupational exposure. We recruited 751 students in the Male Reproductive Health in Chongqing College Students (MARHCS) study and 190 community males from Bishan, Chongqing. Eight urinary metals (Pb, Cd, As, Cu, Zn, Ni, Mn, and Cr), semen quality, and serum sex hormones were detected. Even if the blood lead concentration was below the US lead poisoning standard for children (100 μg/L), a significant dose-response relationship was found between lead exposure and a decrease in semen quality. Multilinear regression showed that urinary Pb was negatively associated with sperm concentration, total sperm count, progressive motility and total sperm motility (regression coefficient: -0.074, -0.103, -0.024, and -0.014, respectively; p:0.001,0.001, 0.007, and0.001, respectively), accompanied by decreased serum follicle-stimulating hormone, serum testosterone and the testosterone/luteinizing hormone ratio (β coefficient: -0.090, -0.082, and -0.020, respectively; p: 0.002,0.001, and 0.021, respectively). Logistic regression also indicated that the risk of having abnormal semen quality was higher in the high Pb group (OR: 2.501, 95% CI: 1.411, 4.435, p = 0.002) than in the low Pb group after adjusting for confounders, with a dose-response relationship in the trend test (p = 0.007). Our results revealed an inverse association between Pb exposure at low levels and semen quality.

Aim: To determine whether induced abortion (IA) increases breast cancer (BC) risk. Materials and Methods: A population-based case-control study was performed from Dec, 2000 to November, 2004 in Shanghai, China, where IA could be verified through the family planning network and client medical records. Structured questionnaires were completed by 1,517 cases with primary invasive epithelial breast cancer and 1,573 controls frequency- matched to cases for age group. The information was supplemented and verified by the family planning records. Statistical analysis was conducted with SAS 9.0. Results: After adjusting for potential confounders, induced abortions were not found to be associated with breast cancer with OR=0.94 (95%CI= 0.79-1.11). Compared to parous women without induced abortion, parous women with 3 or more times induced abortion (OR=0.66, 95%CI=0.46 to 0.95) and women with 3 or more times induced abortion after the first live birth (OR=0.66, 95%CI =0.45 to 0.97) showed a lower risk of breast cancer, after adjustment for age, level of education, annual income per capita, age at menarche, menopause, parity times, spontaneous abortion, age at first live birth, breast-feeding, oral contraceptives, hormones drug, breast disease, BMI, drinking alcohol, drinking tea, taking vitamin/calcium tablet, physical activity, vocation, history of breast cancer, eating the bean. Conclusions: The results suggest that a history of induced abortions may not increase the risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND In recent years, the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in China and some other countries has caused worldwide concern. Mild cases tend to recover within a week, while severe cases may progress rapidly and tend to have bad outcome. Since there is no vaccine for HFMD and anti-inflammatory treatment is not ideal. In this study, we aimed to establish a valid forecasting model for severe HFMD using common laboratory parameters. METHODS Retrospectively, 77 severe HFMD cases from Zhengzhou Children's hospital in the peaking period between years 2013 to 2015 were collected, with 77 mild HFMD cases in the same area. The study recorded common laboratory parameters to assist in establishment of the severe HFMD model. After screening the important variables using Mann-Whitney U test, the study also matched the logistic regression (LR), discriminant analysis (DA), and decision tree (DT) to make a comparison. RESULTS Compared with that of the mild group, serum levels of WBC, PLT, PCT, MCV, MCH, LCR, SCR, LCC, GLO, CK-MB, K, S100, and B in the severe group were higher (p < 0.05), while MCR, EOR, BASOR, SCC, MCC, EO, BASO, NA, CL, T, Th, and Th/Ts were lower (p < 0.05). Five indicators including MCR, LCC, Th, CK-MB, and CL were screened out by LR and the same for DA, and five variables including EO, LCC, CL, GLO, and MCC screened out by DT. The area under the curve (AUC) of LR, DA, and DT was 0.805, 0.779 and 0.864, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The findings were that common laboratory indexes were effectively used to distinguish the mild HFMD cases and severe HFMD cases by LR, DA, and DT, and DT had the best classification effect with an AUC of 0.864.

Objective To explore the male condom use and the using problems as well as the influencing factors among Shanghai women. Methods A prospective follow-up was conducted among 1 562 subjects who used either the condom or the combined regimen as their method for fertility regulation in nine districts in Shanghai. The study began in the October, 2003 with a baseline survey, and finished in the December, 2007. There were two groups, group I with condom use combined regimen (condom + ECP) and group II with condom use only. Totally 812 eligible subjects were assigned to group I, and 750 to group II. Data was collected with a daily diary card, on which menses, acts of intercourse, information on condom and ECP use, and condom using problems were recorded. Data were analyzed with binary logistic regression models adjusting the potential confounding factors. Results During the whole study years, in group I the mean condom using frequency was (59.5±17.9) times and the whole course condom using frequency was (58.1±18.5). In group II, the mean condom using frequency and the whole course condom using frequency are (57.4±19.0) and (56.4±19.7), respectively. The condom using problem rate (CUPR) in group I and group II in the first month were 5.05 and 9.64 per 100 condoms. With the progress of the study, the CUPR in both groups were decreasing. The total year's CUPR in group I and group II were 0.82% and 1.45% ( P =0.002). The study showed that the common condom using problems during the 1st year were too loose (41.9% in group I and 27.1% in group II), too long (15.6% in group I and 25.6% in group II), and too slippery (21.2% in group I and 20.2% in group II) among those reported condom using problems. Condom problems were more common in the inexperienced and in those who had not experienced problems previously. Subject's age, education and occupation might influence condom using problem rate. Conclusions The condom using problems indicated that condom manufacturers should continue to refine the products so as to increase the condom acceptability. Experience was significant associated with condom using problem.

To determine the association of high birth weight (HBW) with the risk of obesity in childhood and adolescence. We also aimed to explore the interactions of HBW with physical activity and dietary habits.In a birth cohort born in 1993, 1994, and 1995 in Wuxi, China, subjects with a birth weight (BW) of/=4000 g were selected as the exposed group. For each exposed subject, one non-exposed subject with a BW of 2500-3999 g, matched by year of birth, gender, and type of institute at birth was chosen. Two follow-ups were performed from October 2005 to February 2007 and July 2010 to December 2011.A total of 1108 exposed and 1128 non-exposed subjects were included. Overweight/obesity rates were significantly higher in the exposed group (16.2% in childhood and 14.2% in adolescence) than those in the non-exposed group (12.1% in childhood and 8.2% in adolescence). There was no significant interaction between BW and the growth period (F=2.10, p=0.147). The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) of HBW with physical activity was -0.20 (95% CI=-2.85-2.45), and the RERI of HBW with dietary habits was 1.19 (95% CI=0.14-2.23).Infants with HBW are at increased risk of childhood and adolescent overweight/obesity, and this relationship is not influenced by the growth period. There is an additive interaction between HBW and dietary habits.

Background: The aim of the study was to explore the mechanisms underlying the association of birth weight with later body mass index (BMI) from the biochemical markers related to metabolism and the Apa I polymorphism in IGF-II gene.Methods: A total of 300 children were selected randomly from the Macrosomia Birth Cohort in Wuxi, China. The height and weight were measured and blood samples were collected. Plasma concentrations of 8 biochemical markers were detected. Apa I polymorphism was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymor­phism (PCR-RFLP).Results: Biochemical markers were detected for 296 subjects and 271 subjects were genotyped for the Apa I polymorphism. No association was found between birth weight and 8 biochemical markers. In boys, the BMIs of AA, AG and GG genotypes were 16.10 ± 2.24 kg/m2, 17.40 ± 3.20 kg/m2, 17.65 ± 2.66 kg/m2. And there was statistical difference among the three genotypes. But in girls, there was no statistical difference. The birth weights of AA, AG and GG genotypes were 3751.13 ± 492.43 g, 3734.00 ± 456.88 g, 3782.00 ± 461.78 g. And there was no statis­tical difference among the three genotypes.Conclusion: Biochemical markers are not associated with birth weight. Apa I polymorphism may be related to child­hood BMI, but it may be not associated with birth weight. Therefore, biochemical markers and Apa I polymorphism might not play a role in the association of birth weight and BMI.

To learn the prevalence of overweight and obesity of children aged 10 to 14 in Wuxi and to analyze its potential influencing factors.With a stratified cluster random sampling method, 2870 children aged 10 to 14 in three districts of Wuxi were surveyed by means of questionnaire and physical examination.The incidence of overweight was 11.39% (Boys' was 10.03% and girls' was 1.36%) and that of obesity was 2.23% (Boys' was 1.64% and girls' was 0.59%). The incidence of overweight and obesity of boys was much higher than that of girls (P0.01). The result of multiple linear regression analysis indicated the influencing factors of BMI in childhood might include birth weight, BMI of father and mother and preference for fried foods.The prevalence of overweight and obesity of children aged 10 to 14 in Wuxi was between the rich rural areas and small and middle-sized cities in China. To prevent overweight developing to obesity is an important measure. Birth weight, BMI of father and mother, preference for fried foods were the main factors affecting children's BMI. A comprehensive prevention and control measure of family intervention should be taken.