1. Bayesian phylogeography of influenza A/H3N2 for the 2014-15 season in the United States using three frameworks of ancestral state reconstruction
- Author
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Daniel Magee, Matthew Scotch, Marc A. Suchard, and Koelle, Katia
- Subjects
RNA viruses ,0301 basic medicine ,Viral Diseases ,Atmospheric Science ,Influenza Viruses ,Glycobiology ,Pathology and Laboratory Medicine ,Poisson distribution ,Biochemistry ,Mathematical Sciences ,Coalescent theory ,Disease Outbreaks ,Bayes' theorem ,Models ,Risk Factors ,Statistics ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Influenza A Virus ,Public and Occupational Health ,lcsh:QH301-705.5 ,Phylogeny ,Data Management ,Sampling bias ,Geography ,Ecology ,Incidence ,Statistical ,Biological Sciences ,Vaccination and Immunization ,Phylogenetics ,Phylogeography ,Infectious Diseases ,Biogeography ,Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Medical Microbiology ,Viral Pathogens ,Modeling and Simulation ,Population Surveillance ,Viruses ,H3N2 Subtype ,symbols ,Pneumonia & Influenza ,Seasons ,Pathogens ,Research Article ,Human ,Generalized linear model ,Computer and Information Sciences ,Evolution ,Bioinformatics ,Immunology ,030106 microbiology ,Bayesian probability ,Posterior probability ,Biology ,Microbiology ,Evolution, Molecular ,03 medical and health sciences ,Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience ,symbols.namesake ,Meteorology ,Spatio-Temporal Analysis ,Species Specificity ,Information and Computing Sciences ,Influenza, Human ,Prior probability ,Genetics ,Humans ,Evolutionary Systematics ,Computer Simulation ,Microbial Pathogens ,Molecular Biology ,Weather ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Taxonomy ,Glycoproteins ,Evolutionary Biology ,Models, Statistical ,Population Biology ,Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Molecular ,Genetic Variation ,Bayes Theorem ,United States ,Influenza ,030104 developmental biology ,Emerging Infectious Diseases ,lcsh:Biology (General) ,Evolutionary biology ,Earth Sciences ,Preventive Medicine ,Population Genetics ,Orthomyxoviruses - Abstract
Ancestral state reconstructions in Bayesian phylogeography of virus pandemics have been improved by utilizing a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) framework. Recently, this framework has been extended to model the transition rate matrix between discrete states as a generalized linear model (GLM) of genetic, geographic, demographic, and environmental predictors of interest to the virus and incorporating BSSVS to estimate the posterior inclusion probabilities of each predictor. Although the latter appears to enhance the biological validity of ancestral state reconstruction, there has yet to be a comparison of phylogenies created by the two methods. In this paper, we compare these two methods, while also using a primitive method without BSSVS, and highlight the differences in phylogenies created by each. We test six coalescent priors and six random sequence samples of H3N2 influenza during the 2014–15 flu season in the U.S. We show that the GLMs yield significantly greater root state posterior probabilities than the two alternative methods under five of the six priors, and significantly greater Kullback-Leibler divergence values than the two alternative methods under all priors. Furthermore, the GLMs strongly implicate temperature and precipitation as driving forces of this flu season and nearly unanimously identified a single root state, which exhibits the most tropical climate during a typical flu season in the U.S. The GLM, however, appears to be highly susceptible to sampling bias compared with the other methods, which casts doubt on whether its reconstructions should be favored over those created by alternate methods. We report that a BSSVS approach with a Poisson prior demonstrates less bias toward sample size under certain conditions than the GLMs or primitive models, and believe that the connection between reconstruction method and sampling bias warrants further investigation., Author summary For the better part of the last decade, epidemiological researchers have employed a Bayesian framework to reconstruct phylogenetic trees and determine the spatiotemporal relationships between clades of viruses. Recently, an extension of this framework has enabled direct assessment of how various demographic, geographic, genetic, and environmental variables play a role in these relationships, but there has yet to be a comparison between the former and the latter. Here, we aim to assess the differences between the two reconstruction techniques, as well as an additional primitive method, using the 2014–15 influenza season in the U.S. as a case study under a variety of population growth scenarios. We highlight how the new method demonstrates significant increases in commonly-reported trends in phylogenies and that the method identifies climate predictors that appear to be consistent with known trends in seasonal trends in influenza. However, we found that this method appears to be the most heavily influenced by the locations at which the viruses were obtained. Our work offers valuable insight for researchers wishing to study the evolutionary history of viruses and also may prove useful in determining the correct method to choose for a given application of virus phylogeography.
- Published
- 2017