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Objectives To determine for each basic, instrumental, and mobility activity after hospitalization for acute medical illness: (1) disability prevalence immediately before and monthly for 6 months after hospitalization; (2) disability incidence 1 month after hospitalization; and (3) recovery time from incident disability during months 2 to 6 after hospitalization. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting New Haven, Connecticut. Participants A total of 515 community-living persons, mean age 82.7 years, hospitalized for acute noncritical medical illness and alive within 1 month of hospital discharge. Measurements Disability was defined monthly for each basic (bathing, dressing, walking, transferring), instrumental (shopping, housework, meal preparation, taking medications, managing finances), and mobility activity (walking a quarter mile, climbing flight of stairs, lifting/carrying 10 pounds, driving) if help was needed to perform the activity or if a car was not driven in the prior month. Results Disability was common 1 and 6 months after hospitalization for activities frequently involved in leaving the home to access care including walking a quarter mile (prevalence 65% and 53%, respectively) and driving (65% and 61%). Disability was also common for activities involved in self-managing chronic health conditions including meal preparation (53% and 41%) and taking medications (41% and 31%). New disability was common and often prolonged. For example, 43% had new disability walking a quarter mile, and 30% had new disability taking medications, with mean recovery time of 1.9 months and 1.7 months, respectively. Findings were similar for the subgroup of persons residing at home (ie, not in a nursing home) at the first monthly follow-up interview after hospitalization. Conclusion Disability in specific functional activities important to leaving home to access care and self-managing health conditions is common, often new, and present for prolonged time periods after hospitalization for acute medical illness. Post-discharge care should support patients through extended periods of vulnerability beyond the immediate transitional period. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:486-495, 2020.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE Heart failure (HF) readmission rates have plateaued despite scrutiny of hospital discharge practices. Many HF patients are discharged to skilled nursing facility (SNF) after hospitalization before returning home. Home healthcare (HHC) services received during the additional transition from SNF to home may affect readmission risk. Here, we examined whether receipt of HHC affects readmission risk during the transition from SNF to home following HF hospitalization. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Fee-for-service Medicare data, 2012 to 2015. PARTICIPANTS Beneficiaries, aged 65 years and older, hospitalized with HF who were subsequently discharged to SNF and then discharged home. MEASUREMENTS The primary outcome was unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge to home from SNF. We compared time to readmission between those with and without HHC services using a Cox model. RESULTS Of 67 585 HF hospitalizations discharged to SNFs and subsequently discharged home, 13 257 (19.6%) were discharged with HHC, and 54 328 (80.4%) were discharged without HHC. Patients discharged home from SNFs with HHC had lower 30-day readmission rates than patients discharged without HHC (22.8% vs 24.5%; P

Disparities in health outcome exist among patients according to socioeconomic status. However, little is known regarding the differences in healthcare experiences across the various levels of income of patients. In a nationally representative US adult population, we evaluate the differences in healthcare experiences based on patient level of income. To evaluate the differences in patient healthcare experiences based on level of income. We identified 68,447 individuals (mean age, 48 ± 18 years; 55% female) representing 176.8 million US adults, who had an established healthcare provider in the 2010–2013 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey cohort. This retrospective study examined the differences in all five patient-reported healthcare experience measures (access to care, provider responsiveness, patient-provider communication, shared decision-making, and patient satisfaction) under the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey. We examined the relationship between patient income and their healthcare experience. Overall, 32% of the study participants were high-income earners while 23% had very-low income. Lower income was consistently associated with poor patient report on healthcare experience. Compared with those with high income, very-low-income-earning participants had 1.63 times greater odds (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.45–1.82) of experiencing difficulty accessing care, had 1.34 times higher odds (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.25–1.45) of experiencing poor communication, had higher odds (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.46–1.92) of experiencing delays in healthcare delivery, and were more likely to report poor provider satisfaction (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.37–1.61). Lower income-earning patients have poorer healthcare experience in all aspects of access and quality of care. Targeted policies focusing on improving communication, engagement, and satisfaction are needed to enhance patient healthcare experience for this vulnerable population.

Characterization of the dynamic nature of posthospital risk in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is needed to provide counseling and plan clinical services.To analyze risk of readmission and death after discharge for COPD among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older and to determine the association between ventilator support and risk trajectory.We computed daily absolute risks of hospital readmission and death for 1 year after discharge for COPD, stratified by ventilator support. We determined the time required for risks to decline by 50% from maximum daily values after discharge and for daily risks to plateau. We compared risks with those found in the general elderly population.Among 2,340,637 hospitalizations, the readmission rate at 1 year was 64.2%, including 63.5%, 66.0%, and 64.1% among those receiving invasive, noninvasive, and no ventilation, respectively. Among 1,283,069 hospitalizations, mortality at 1 year was 26.2%, including 45.7%, 41.8%, and 24.4% among those same respective groups. Daily risk of readmission declined by 50% within 28, 39, and 43 days and plateaued at 46, 54, and 61 days among those receiving invasive, noninvasive, and no ventilation, respectively. Risk of death declined by 50% by 3, 4, and 17 days and plateaued by 21, 18, and 24 days in the same respective groups. Risks of hospitalization and death were significantly higher after discharge for COPD than among the general Medicare population.Discharge from the hospital is associated with prolonged risks of readmission and death that vary with need for ventilator support. Interventions limited to the first month after discharge may be insufficient to improve longitudinal outcomes.

Recognizing and understanding the risk factors for mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) provide clinicians and patients important information to determine prognosis and guide treatment. Most risk stratification models use demographic and clinical information that exists prior to hospitalization plus clinical presentation characteristics to estimate a patient's risk of mortality. In this review, we summarize the most important risk factors and discuss current models to predict mortality.

To determine if hospitals that routinely discharge patients early after lobectomy have increased readmissions.Hospitals are increasingly motivated to reduce length of stay (LOS) after lung cancer surgery, yet it is unclear if a routine of early discharge is associated with increased readmissions. The relationship between hospital discharge practices and readmission rates is therefore of tremendous clinical and financial importance.The National Cancer Database was queried for patients undergoing lobectomy for lung cancer from 2004 to 2013 at Commission on Cancer-accredited hospitals, which performed at least 25 lobectomies in a 2-year period. Facility discharge practices were characterized by a facility's median LOS relative to the median LOS for all patients in that same time period.In all, 59,734 patients met inclusion criteria; 2687 (4.5%) experienced an unplanned readmission. In a hierarchical logistic regression model, a routine of early discharge (defined as a facility's tendency to discharge patients faster than the population median in the same time period) was not associated with increased risk of readmission (odds ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.97-1.28, P = 0.12). In a risk-adjusted hospital readmission rate analysis, hospitals that discharged patients early did not experience more readmissions (P = 0.39). The lack of effect of early discharge practices on readmission rates was observed for both minimally invasive and thoracotomy approaches.It is possible for hospitals to develop early discharge practices without increasing readmissions. Further study is needed to identify the critical practice elements that have enabled hospitals to aggressively discharge patients without increasing readmission risk.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure having a low expected probability of arrhythmic death may not benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). OBJECTIVE: The objective was to validate models to identify cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) candidates who may not require CRT devices with ICD functionality. METHODS: Heart failure (HF) patients with CRT-Ds and non-CRT ICDs from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry and others with no device from 3 separate registries and 3 heart failure trials were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for survival with the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM; estimates overall mortality) and the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM; estimates proportional risk of arrhythmic death). RESULTS: Among 60,185 patients (age 68.6±11.3 years, 31.9% female) meeting CRT-D criteria, 38,348 had CRT-Ds, 11,389 had non-CRT ICDs, and 10,448 had no device. CRT-D patients had a prominent adjusted survival benefit (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.50–0.55, pmedian had substantially more ICD-attributable benefit (absolute risk reduction of 2.6%/year combined; p

Background: Readmission after acute myocardial infarction in low- and middle-income countries like China is not well characterized. Methods and Results: We approached consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction hospitalized within 24 hours of symptom onset and discharged alive from 53 geographically diverse hospitals in China. We described rates of unplanned 30-day readmission, their timing and admitting diagnoses, and fit Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors associated with readmission. Among 3387 patients, median (interquartile range) age was 61 (52–69) years, and 76.9% were men. The index median length of stay was 11 (8–14) days. Unplanned 30-day readmission occurred in 6.3% of the cohort; most readmissions (77.7%) were for cardiovascular diagnoses. Nearly half (41.9% of all-cause readmissions; 44.3% of cardiovascular readmissions) occurred within 5 days of discharge. Mini-Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events scores at admission (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15 for every 10-point increase; 95% CI, 1.05–1.25), longer length of stay (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00–1.06 for each extra day), and in-hospital recurrent angina (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.04–1.89) were associated with higher unplanned all-cause readmission. Revascularization during the index hospitalization (70.2% of the cohort) was associated with lower risks of all-cause readmission (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.18–0.42). In addition, left ventricular ejection fraction Conclusions: In China, most readmissions are for cardiovascular events, and almost half occur within 5 days of discharge. Clinical factors identify patients at higher and lower unplanned readmissions. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01624909.

Background Despite improvements on individual process of care measures for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), little is known about performance on a composite measure of AMI care that assesses the delivery of many components of high-quality AMI care. We sought to examine trends in patient- and hospital-level performance on a composite defect-free care measure, identify disparities in the performance across sociodemographic groups, and identify opportunities to further improve quality and outcomes. Methods and Results We calculated the proportion of patients in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry-Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network Registry-Get With The Guidelines (now known as the Chest Pain - Myocardial Infarction Registry) between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2017, receiving defect-free AMI care including guideline-recommended pharmacotherapy, timely provision of medical and reperfusion therapy, assessment of ventricular function, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, and smoking cessation counseling for patients with AMI. A total of 522 800 patients at 222 hospitals were included. Overall, the proportion of patients receiving defect-free care significantly increased from 66.0% in 2010 to 77.1% in 2017 ( P0.001). Improvements in performance were observed across all sociodemographic subgroups, with the greatest absolute improvement observed for black and Hispanic patients ( P0.001). However, absolute performance was consistently lower among older patients, women, black and Hispanic patients, and those with government insurance in 2017 ( P0.001 for all). Improvements in care and reduced variation in performance were observed at the hospital level overall (2010, median [IQR] 67.2% [40.7%-76.3%]; 2017, median [IQR] 80.7% [73.1%-88.1%]; P0.001) as well as across region, safety net status, teaching status, and proportion of patients who are nonwhite and have Medicaid insurance coverage ( P0.001 for all). Conclusions Despite improvements in the proportion of patients with AMI receiving defect-free care overall and across sociodemographic groups, nearly 1 in 4 patients in 2017 still did not receive optimal care and absolute performance was consistently lower among older patients, women, black, and Hispanic patients. Composite measures of cardiovascular care, which assess the delivery of several evidence-based processes of care, can illuminate opportunities to improve the quality of care beyond that provided by conventional process measures.

Background Despite improvements on individual process of care measures for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), little is known about performance on a composite measure of AMI care that assesses the delivery of many components of high-quality AMI care. We sought to examine trends in patient- and hospital-level performance on a composite defect-free care measure, identify disparities in the performance across sociodemographic groups, and identify opportunities to further improve quality and outcomes. Methods and Results We calculated the proportion of patients in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry–Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network Registry–Get With The Guidelines (now known as the Chest Pain - Myocardial Infarction Registry) between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2017, receiving defect-free AMI care including guideline-recommended pharmacotherapy, timely provision of medical and reperfusion therapy, assessment of ventricular function, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, and smoking cessation counseling for patients with AMI. A total of 522 800 patients at 222 hospitals were included. Overall, the proportion of patients receiving defect-free care significantly increased from 66.0% in 2010 to 77.1% in 2017 ( P P P P P Conclusions Despite improvements in the proportion of patients with AMI receiving defect-free care overall and across sociodemographic groups, nearly 1 in 4 patients in 2017 still did not receive optimal care and absolute performance was consistently lower among older patients, women, black, and Hispanic patients. Composite measures of cardiovascular care, which assess the delivery of several evidence-based processes of care, can illuminate opportunities to improve the quality of care beyond that provided by conventional process measures.

Objectives (1) To determine the relationship of incident delirium during hospitalization with 90-day mortality; (2) to identify potential in-hospital mediators through which delirium increases 90-day mortality. Design Analysis of data from Project Recovery, a controlled clinical trial of a delirium prevention intervention from 1995 to 1998 with follow-up through 2000. Setting Large academic hospital. Participants Patients ≥70 years old without delirium at hospital admission who were at intermediate-to-high risk of developing delirium and received usual care only. Measurements (1) Incident delirium; (2) potential mediators of delirium on death including use of restraining devices (physical restraints, urinary catheters), development of hospital acquired conditions (HACs) (falls, pressure ulcers), and exposure to other noxious insults (sleep deprivation, acute malnutrition, dehydration, aspiration pneumonia); (3) death within 90 days of admission. Results Among 469 patients, 70 (15%) developed incident delirium. These patients were more likely to experience restraining devices (37% vs 16%, P < .001), HACs (37% vs 12%, P < .001), other noxious insults (63% vs 49%, P = .03), and 90-day mortality (24% vs 6%, P < .001). The inverse probability weighted hazard of death due to delirium was 4.2 (95% CI = 2.8–6.3) in bivariable analyses, increased in a graded manner with additional exposures to restraining devices, HACs, and other noxious insults, and declined by 10.9% after addition of these potential mediator categories, providing evidence of mediation. Conclusion Restraining devices, HACs, and additional noxious insults were more frequent among patients with delirium, increased mortality in a graded manner, and were responsible for a significant percentage of the association of delirium with death. Additional efforts to prevent potential downstream mediators through which delirium increases mortality may help to improve outcomes among hospitalized older adults.

Older adults are frequently readmitted to the hospital soon after hospitalization for common cardiovascular conditions. Yet there are few high-quality data on the best strategies to reduce short-term readmissions because most studies have involved small numbers of participants, single-centre design, and strong susceptibility to bias. Despite these limitations in the literature, a clear signal exists that most studies involving a singular type of intervention, a singular type of health provider, or a low intensity of intervention have failed to reduce readmissions. In contrast, interventions that are most likely to lower readmissions have used comprehensive approaches, including combined hospital and postacute care, multimodal interventions, multidisciplinary teams, or frequent longitudinal contact. Components of a comprehensive approach with the highest level of evidence include high-quality, disease-specific care; multiple transitional care interventions; involvement of multidisciplinary teams; early and frequent outpatient follow-up; and, when possible, home visits. These findings are consistent with data demonstrating that older adults have multiple sources of vulnerability and experience elevated readmission risk from a broad spectrum of medical conditions for an extended time after hospital discharge. Because readmission reduction is difficult and requires new ways of conceptualizing links between inpatient and postacute care, financial incentives may ultimately be required to motivate hospitals and health systems to redesign care processes, deploy new resources, and collaborate with out-of-hospital providers and organizations.

Programs from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services simultaneously promote strategies to lower hospital admissions and readmissions. However, there is concern that hospitals in communities that successfully reduce admissions may be penalized, as patients that are ultimately hospitalized may be sicker and at higher risk of readmission. We therefore examined the relationship between changes from 2010 to 2013 in admission rates and thirty-day readmission rates for elderly Medicare beneficiaries. We found that communities with the greatest decline in admission rates also had the greatest decline in thirty-day readmission rates, even though hospitalized patients did grow sicker as admission rates declined. The relationship between changing admission and readmission rates persisted in models that measured observed readmission rates, risk-standardized readmission rates, and the combined rate of readmission and death. Our findings suggest that communities can reduce admission rates and readmission rates in parallel, and that federal policy incentivizing reductions in both outcomes does not create contradictory incentives.

Multimorbidity is common among older adults with heart failure and creates diagnostic and management challenges. Diagnosis of heart failure may be difficult, as many conditions commonly found in older persons produce dyspnea, exercise intolerance, fatigue, and weakness; no singular pathognomonic finding or diagnostic test differentiates them from one another. Treatment may also be complicated, as multimorbidity creates high potential for drug-disease and drug-drug interactions in settings of polypharmacy. The authors suggest that management of multimorbid older persons with heart failure be patient, rather than disease-focused, to best meet patients' unique health goals and minimize risk from excessive or poorly-coordinated treatments.

Key Points Question Was the announcement or implementation of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) associated with an increase in mortality following hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia among Medicare beneficiaries? Findings In this cohort study, between 2006 and 2014, in-hospital mortality decreased for the 3 conditions while 30-day postdischarge mortality decreased for acute myocardial infarction but increased for heart failure and pneumonia. Before the announcement of the HRRP, postdischarge mortality was stable for acute myocardial infarction and increasing for heart failure and pneumonia, and there were no inflections in slope around the announcement or implementation of the HRRP. Meaning There was no evidence for increase in in-hospital or postdischarge mortality associated with the HRRP announcement or implementation—a period with substantial reductions in readmissions., Importance The US Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) was associated with reduced readmissions among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia. It is important to assess whether there has been a signal for concomitant harm with an increase in mortality. Objective To evaluate whether the announcement or the implementation of HRRP was associated with an increase in either in-hospital or 30-day postdischarge mortality following hospitalization for AMI, HF, or pneumonia. Design, Setting, and Participants In this cohort study, using Medicare data, all hospitalizations for AMI, HF, and pneumonia were identified among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014. These were assessed for changes in trends for risk-adjusted rates of in-hospital and 30-day postdischarge mortality after announcement and implementation of the HRRP using an interrupted time series framework. Analyses were done in November 2017 and December 2017. Exposures Announcement of the HRRP in March 2010, and implementation of its penalties in October 2012. Main Outcomes and Measures Monthly risk-adjusted rates of in-hospital and 30-day postdischarge mortality. Results The sample included 1.7 million AMI, 4 million HF, and 3.5 million pneumonia hospitalizations. Between 2006 and 2014, in-hospital mortality decreased for the 3 conditions (AMI, from 10.4% to 9.7%; HF, from 4.3% to 3.5%; pneumonia, from 5.3% to 4.0%) while 30-day postdischarge mortality decreased from 7.4% to 7.0% for AMI (P for trend .05 for all). In contrast, there were significant negative deflections in slopes for readmission rates at HRRP announcement for all conditions. Conclusions and Relevance Among Medicare beneficiaries, there was no evidence for an increase in in-hospital or postdischarge mortality associated with HRRP announcement or implementation—a period with substantial reductions in readmissions. The improvement in readmission was therefore not associated with any increase in in-hospital or 30-day postdischarge mortality., This cohort study uses Medicare data to evaluate whether the announcement or implementation of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) was associated with an increase in either in-hospital or 30-day postdischarge mortality following hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or pneumonia.

Objective Discharge to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) is common in patients with heart failure (HF). It is unknown whether the transition from SNF to home is risky for these patients. Our objective was to study outcomes for the 30 days after discharge from SNF to home among Medicare patients hospitalized with HF who had subsequent SNF stays of 30 days or less. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting and participants All Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 65 and older admitted during 2012-2015 with a HF diagnosis discharged to SNF then subsequently discharged home. Measures Patients were followed for 30 days following SNF discharge. We categorized patients by SNF length of stay: 1 to 6 days, 7 to 13 days, and 14 to 30 days. For each group, we modeled time to a composite outcome of unplanned readmission or death after SNF discharge. Our model examined 0-2 days and 3-30 days post-SNF discharge. Results Our study included 67,585 HF hospitalizations discharged to SNF and subsequently discharged home. Overall, 16,333 (24.2%) SNF discharges to home were readmitted within 30 days of SNF discharge. The hazard rate of the composite outcome for each group was significantly increased on days 0 to 2 after SNF discharge compared to days 3 to 30, as reflected in their hazard rate ratios: for patients with SNF length of stay 1 to 6 days, 4.60 (4.23-5.00); SNF length of stay 7 to 13 days, 2.61 (2.45-2.78); SNF length of stay 14 to 30 days, 1.70 (1.62-1.78). Conclusions/implications The hazard rate of readmission after SNF discharge following HF hospitalization is highest during the first 2 days home. This risk attenuated with longer SNF length of stay. Interventions to improve postdischarge outcomes have primarily focused on hospital discharge. This evidence suggests that interventions to reduce readmissions may be more effective if they also incorporate the SNF-to-home transition.

A key quality metric for Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) is the rate of hospitalization among patients with heart failure (HF). Among this patient population, non-HF-related hospitalizations account for a substantial proportion of admissions. Understanding the types of admissions and the distribution of admission types across ACOs of varying performance may provide important insights for lowering admission rates.We examined admission diagnoses among 220 Medicare Shared Savings Program ACOs in 2013. ACOs were stratified into quartiles by their performance on a measure of unplanned risk-standardized acute admission rates (RSAARs) among patients with HF. Using a previously validated algorithm, we categorized admissions by principal discharge diagnosis into: HF, cardiovascular/non-HF, and noncardiovascular. We compared the mean admission rates by admission type as well as the proportion of admission types across RSAAR quartiles (Q1-Q4).Among 220 ACOs caring for 227,356 patients with HF, the median (IQR) RSAARs per 100 person-years ranged from 64.5 (61.7-67.7) in Q1 (best performers) to 94.0 (90.1-99.9) in Q4 (worst performers). The mean admission rates by admission types for ACOs in Q1 compared with Q4 were as follows: HF admissions: 9.8 (2.2) vs 14.6 (2.8) per 100 person years (P.0001); cardiovascular/non-HF admissions: 11.1 (1.6) vs 15.9 (2.6) per 100 person-years (P.0001); and noncardiovascular admissions: 42.7 (5.4) vs 69.6 (11.3) per 100 person-years (P.0001). The proportion of admission due to HF, cardiovascular/non-HF, and noncardiovascular conditions was 15.4%, 17.5%, and 67.1% in Q1 compared with 14.6%, 15.9%, and 69.4% in Q4 (P.007).Although ACOs with the best performance on a measure of all-cause admission rates among people with HF tended to have fewer admissions for HF, cardiovascular/non-HF, and noncardiovascular conditions compared with ACOs with the worst performance (highest admission rates), the largest difference in admission rates were for noncardiovascular admission types. Across all ACOs, two-thirds of admissions of patients with HF were for noncardiovascular causes. These findings suggest that comprehensive approaches are needed to reduce the diverse admission types for which HF patients are at risk.

BACKGROUND: Temporal changes in the readmission rates for patient groups and conditions that were not directly under the purview of Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) can help assess whether efforts to lower readmissions extended beyond targeted patients and conditions. METHODS: Using Nationwide Readmissions Database (2010–2015), we assessed trends in all-cause readmission rates for one of the 3 HRRP conditions (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, pneumonia) or conditions not targeted by HRRP in 6 age-insurance groups defined by age-groups (≥65 or

After discharge from the hospital, patients face a transient period of generalized susceptibility to disease as well as an elevated risk for adverse events, including hospital readmission and death. The term posthospital syndrome (PHS) has been used to describe this time of enhanced vulnerability. Based on data from bench to bedside, this narrative review examines the hypothesis that hospitalrelated allostatic overload is a plausible etiology of PHS. Resulting from extended exposure to stress, allostatic overload is a maladaptive state driven by overuse and dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and the autonomic nervous system that ultimately generates pathophysiologic consequences to multiple organ systems. Markers of allostatic overload, including elevated levels of cortisol, catecholamines, and inflammatory markers, have been associated with adverse outcomes after hospital discharge. Based on the evidence, we suggest a possible mechanism for postdischarge vulnerability, encourage critical contemplation of traditional hospital environments, and suggest interventions that might improve outcomes.

This study sought to determine the use of intravenous fluids in the early care of patients with acute decompensated heart failure (HF) who are treated with loop diuretics.Intravenous fluids are routinely provided to many hospitalized patients.We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted with HF to 346 hospitals from 2009 to 2010. We assessed the use of intravenous fluids during the first 2 days of hospitalization. We determined the frequency of adverse in-hospital outcomes. We assessed variation in the use of intravenous fluids across hospitals and patient groups.Among 131,430 hospitalizations for HF, 13,806 (11%) were in patients treated with intravenous fluids during the first 2 days. The median volume of administered fluid was 1,000 ml (interquartile range: 1,000 to 2,000 ml), and the most commonly used fluids were normal saline (80%) and half-normal saline (12%). Demographic characteristics and comorbidities were similar in hospitalizations in which patients did and did not receive fluids. Patients who were treated with intravenous fluids had higher rates of subsequent critical care admission (5.7% vs. 3.8%; p 0.0001), intubation (1.4% vs. 1.0%; p = 0.0012), renal replacement therapy (0.6% vs. 0.3%; p 0.0001), and hospital death (3.3% vs. 1.8%; p 0.0001) compared with those who received only diuretics. The proportion of hospitalizations that used fluid treatment varied widely across hospitals (range: 0% to 71%; median: 12.5%).Many patients who are hospitalized with HF and receive diuretics also receive intravenous fluids during their early inpatient care, and the proportion varies among hospitals. Such practice is associated with worse outcomes and warrants further investigation.

Given persistently high 30-day readmission rates among patients hospitalized for heart failure, there is an ongoing need to identify new interventions to reduce readmissions. Although exercise programs can improve outcomes among ambulatory heart failure patients, it is not clear whether this benefit extends to reducing readmissions following heart failure hospitalization. We therefore conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify randomized controlled trials examining the impact of exercise programs on hospital readmissions among patients recently hospitalized for heart failure. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Wiley Cochrane Library for studies that fulfilled pre-defined criteria, including that the exercise program pre-specify activity type and exercise frequency, duration, and intensity. Exercise interventions could occur at any location including within the hospital, at an outpatient facility, or at home. Among 1213 unique publications identified, only one study fulfilled inclusion criteria. This study was a single-site randomized controlled trial that consisted of a 12-week exercise program in a cohort of 105 patients with a principal diagnosis of heart failure at a metropolitan hospital in Australia. This study revealed a reduction in 12-month all-cause and cardiovascular-related hospitalization rates. However, inferences were limited by its single-site study design, small sample size, premature termination, and high risk for selection, performance, and detection bias. As no studies have built upon the findings of this study, it remains unknown whether exercise programs can improve readmission rates among patients recently hospitalized for heart failure, a significant gap in the literature.

Background— Consumer-reported patient–provider communication (PPC) assessed by Consumer Assessment of Health Plans Survey in ambulatory settings is incorporated as a complementary value metric for patient-centered care of chronic conditions in pay-for-performance programs. In this study, we examine the relationship of PPC with select indicators of patient-centered care in a nationally representative US adult population with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Methods and Results— The study population consisted of a nationally representative sample of 6810 individuals (aged ≥18 years), representing 18.3 million adults with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (self-reported or International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition diagnosis) reporting a usual source of care in the 2010 to 2013 pooled Medical Expenditure Panel Survey cohort. Participants responded to questions from Consumer Assessment of Health Plans Survey that assessed PPC, and we developed a weighted PPC composite score using their responses, categorized as 1 (poor), 2 (average), and 3 (optimal). Outcomes of interest were (1) patient-reported outcomes: 12-item Short Form physical/mental health status, (2) quality of care measures: statin and ASA use, (3) healthcare resource utilization: emergency room visits and hospital stays, and (4) total annual and out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients reporting poor versus optimal were over 2-fold more likely to report poor outcomes; 52% and 26% more likely to report that they are not on statin and aspirin, respectively, had a significantly greater utilization of health resources (odds ratio≥2 emergency room visit, 1.41 [95% confidence interval, 1.09–1.81]; odds ratio≥2 hospitalization, 1.36 [95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.79]), as well as an estimated $1243 ($127–$2359) higher annual healthcare expenditure. Conclusions— This study reveals a strong relationship between PPC and patient-reported outcomes, utilization of evidence-based therapies, healthcare resource utilization, and expenditures among those with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

Background: It is unknown if financial pressures to reduce hospital readmission rates following passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have had the unintended effect of increasing mortality rates after hospitalization. We therefore examined correlations between paired changes in hospital 30-day readmission rates and 30-day mortality rates among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized with heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), or pneumonia from 2008 to 2014. Methods: We used linear regression to calculate monthly changes in hospitals’ 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates (RARRs) and 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates (RAMRs) after discharge for HF, AMI, and pneumonia from 2008 to 2014. Adjustment was made for patient age, sex, comorbidities, hospital length of stay, and season. We then examined the correlation of hospitals’ paired monthly changes in 30-day RARRs and monthly changes in 30-day RAMRs after discharge. Results: From 2008 to 2014, we identified 2,962,554, 1,229,939, and 2,544,530 hospitalizations for HF, AMI, and pneumonia at 5,016, 4,772, and 5,057 hospitals, respectively. Hospital 30-day RARRs declined for all three conditions from 2008 to 2014; the monthly change in RARRs was -0.053 (95% CI -0.055, -0.051) for HF, -0.044 (95% CI -0.047, -0.041) for AMI, and -0.033 (95% CI -0.035, -0.031) for pneumonia. In contrast, the monthly change in hospital 30-day RAMRs after discharge varied by admitting condition and was 0.008 (95% CI 0.007, 0.010) for HF, -0.003 (95% CI -0.006, -0.001) for AMI, and 0.001 (95% CI -0.001, 0.003) for pneumonia. The correlation between monthly changes in hospitals’ 30-day RARRs and 30-day RAMRs after discharge was 0.060 for HF (p Conclusion: Changes in hospital readmission rates for HF, AMI, and pneumonia were poorly correlated with changes in mortality rates after hospitalization between 2008 and 2014. These findings suggest that financial incentives to improve hospitals’ readmission performance have not increased mortality after hospitalization.

Background: While it is well established that significant health outcome disparities exist across patients of varying socio-economic status (SES) with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), disparities in patients’ healthcare experiences are not well investigated. We explore income level differences in four central tenets of patient-reported healthcare experience (access to care, provider communication, shared decision making and provider satisfaction) as measured by the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey, in a nationally representative adult US population with established ASCVD. Methods: The study population consisted of 8223 individuals (age ≥ 18 years) representing 21.6 million with established ASCVD (self-reported or ICD-9 diagnosis) reporting a usual source of care in the 2010-2013 pooled Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) cohort. We assessed the responses for each item as: a) difficult access to care (always/almost difficult), b) ineffective communication and shared decision making (never/sometimes), and c) poor provider satisfaction (lowest quartile on a scale of 0-10). We examined the relationship between scores in the lowest quartile of each domain composite scores, derived using the weighted average response from each items scores, with patients’ SES, using the high-income group as reference. Results: Lower SES was consistently associated with greater perceived difficulties in access, poor provider-patient communication, less shared decision making, as well as lower provider satisfaction (Table). Participants classified as poor vs. high income were 47% (95% CI 1.17-1.83) more likely to report difficulty accessing care, 39% (95% CI 1.09-1.78) and 26% (95% CI 0.99-1.60) reported a higher likelihood of experiencing poor communication and shared decision making respectively, as well as a 66% (95% CI 1.31-2.11) higher likelihood of reporting lower provider satisfaction. Conclusion: Among patients with established ASCVD, significant SES disparities exist in all domains of patient reported healthcare experience quality of care metrics. Targeted policies focusing on improving communication, engagement and satisfaction are needed to enhance patient healthcare experience among high-risk vulnerable populations.

Readmission within 30 days after hospital discharge for common cardiovascular conditions such as heart failure and acute myocardial infarction is extremely common among older persons. To incentivize investment in reducing preventable rehospitalizations, the United States federal government has directed increasing financial penalties to hospitals with higher-than-expected 30-day readmission rates. Uncertainty exists, however, regarding the best approaches to reducing these adverse outcomes. In this review, we summarize the literature on predictors of 30-day readmission, the utility of risk prediction models, and strategies to reduce short-term readmission after hospitalization for heart failure and acute myocardial infarction. We report that few variables have been found to consistently predict the occurrence of 30-day readmission and that risk prediction models lack strong discriminative ability. We additionally report that the literature on interventions to reduce 30-day rehospitalization has significant limitations due to heterogeneity, susceptibility to bias, and lack of reporting on important contextual factors and details of program implementation. New information is characterizing the period after hospitalization as a time of high generalized risk, which has been termed the post-hospital syndrome. This framework for characterizing inherent post-discharge instability suggests new approaches to reducing readmissions.

Cardiac arrest is a common and treatable cause of death and disability. Each year ≈424 000 people experience emergency medical services (EMS)-assessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the United States.1 The actual burden of OHCA is likely significantly higher because a substantial number go unassessed. In a prospective analysis of deaths in a US county, 5.6% of annual mortality was attributable to cardiac arrest.2 Many patients who suffer OHCA do not receive prompt cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Among those who receive CPR, a large number do not survive because of an inability to restore spontaneous circulation, or anoxic cerebral injury even after restoration of circulation. Nevertheless, when timely interventions are provided, a small proportion of patients (10.4% of all EMS-treated OHCA) recover to resume normal lives. The key therapeutic interventions that make the difference between life and death, metaphorically characterized as the 5 links in a chain of survival by the American Heart Association, include: (1) immediate recognition of cardiac arrest and activation of the EMS, (2) early CPR with emphasis on chest compression, (3) rapid defibrillation, (4) effective advanced life support, and (5) integrated postcardiac arrest care.3 Resuscitation science has undergone major advances since the origins of modern CPR >50 years ago.4 The field continues to be dynamic with emergence of new therapies such as therapeutic hypothermia5 and improvements in systems of care. However, many questions remain on issues such as optimum compression rate, efficacy of chest compression only CPR (CCCPR), dispatcher-assisted CPR, and benefits of postresuscitation measures such as hypothermia. A critical challenge also lies in the translation of resuscitation science into practice. To improve outcomes, each of the links in the chain of survival needs to be executed promptly and effectively. There remain several lacunae, which need to be overcome to develop an …

Importance Studies of public hospitals have reported increasing incidence of emergency department (ED) transfers of uninsured patients for hospitalization, which is perceived to be associated with financial incentives. Objective To examine the differences in risk-adjusted transfer and discharge rates by patient insurance status among hospitals capable of providing critical care. Design, Setting, and Participants A cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 National Emergency Department Sample was conducted, including visits between January 2015 and December 2015. Adult ED visits throughout 2015 (n = 215 028) for the 3 common medical conditions of pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma, at hospitals with intensive care capabilities were included. Only hospitals with advanced critical care capabilities for pulmonary care were included. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcomes were patient-level and hospital-level risk-adjusted ED discharges, ED transfers, and hospital admissions. Adjusted odds of discharge or transfer compared with admission among uninsured patients, Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries, and privately insured patients are reported. Hospital ownership status was used for the secondary analysis. Results Of the 30 542 691 ED visits to 953 hospitals included in the 2015 National Emergency Department Sample, 215 028 visits (0.7%) were for acute pulmonary diseases to 160 intensive care–capable hospitals. These visits were made by patients with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 55 (40-71) years and who were predominantly female (124 931 [58.1%]). Substantial variation in unadjusted and risk-standardized ED discharge, ED transfer, and hospital admission rates was found across EDs. Compared with privately insured patients, uninsured patients were more likely to be discharged (odds ratio [OR], 1.66; 95% CI, 1.57-1.76) and transferred (adjusted OR [aOR], 2.41; 95% CI, 2.08-2.79). Medicaid beneficiaries had comparable odds of discharge (aOR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97-1.04) but higher odds of transfer (aOR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.33). Conclusions and Relevance After accounting for hospital critical care capability and patient case mix, the study found that uninsured patients and Medicaid beneficiaries with common medical conditions appeared to have higher odds of interhospital transfer.

Importance Measurement of delirium severity has been recognized as highly important for tracking prognosis, monitoring response to treatment, and estimating burden of care for patients both during and after hospitalization. Rather than simply rating delirium as present or absent, the ability to quantify its severity would enable development and monitoring of more effective treatment approaches for the condition. Objectives To present a comprehensive review of delirium severity instruments, conduct a methodologic quality rating of the original validation study of the most commonly used instruments, and select a group of top-rated instruments. Evidence Review This systematic review was conducted using literature from Embase, PsycINFO, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, from January 1, 1974, through March 31, 2017, with the key wordsdelirium,severity,tests,measures, andintensity. Inclusion criteria were original articles assessing delirium severity and using a delirium-specific severity instrument. Final listings of articles were supplemented with hand searches of reference listings to ensure completeness. At least 2 reviewers independently completed each step of the review process: article selection, data extraction, and methodologic quality assessment of relevant articles using a validated rating scale. All discrepancies between raters were resolved by consensus. Findings Of 9409 articles identified, 228 underwent full text review, and we identified 42 different instruments of delirium severity. Eleven of the 42 tools were multidomain, delirium-specific instruments providing a quantitative rating of delirium severity; these instruments underwent a methodologic quality review. Applying prespecified criteria related to frequency of use, methodologic quality, construct or predictive validity, and broad domain coverage, an expert panel used an iterative modified Delphi process to select 6 final high-quality instruments meeting these criteria: the Confusion Assessment Method–Severity Score, Confusional State Examination, Delirium-O-Meter, Delirium Observation Scale, Delirium Rating Scale, and Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale. Conclusions and Relevance The 6 instruments identified may enable accurate measurement of delirium severity to improve clinical care for patients with this condition. This work may stimulate increased usage and head-to-head comparison of these instruments.

Background— Previous studies have reported conflicting findings regarding how the incidence of heart failure (HF) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has changed over time, and data on contemporary national trends are sparse. Methods and Results— Using a complete national sample of 2 789 943 AMI hospitalizations of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries from 1998 through 2010, we evaluated annual changes in the incidence of subsequent HF hospitalization and mortality using Poisson and survival analysis models. The number of patients hospitalized for HF within 1 year after AMI declined modestly from 16.1 per 100 person-years in 1998 to 14.2 per 100 person years in 2010 ( P Conclusions— In a national sample of Medicare beneficiaries, HF hospitalization after AMI decreased from 1998 to 2010, which may indicate improvements in the management of AMI. In contrast, survival after HF following AMI remains poor, and has worsened from 2007 to 2010, demonstrating that challenges still remain for the treatment of this high-risk condition after AMI.

Background— Cardiovascular diseases are rising as a cause of death and disability in China. To improve outcomes for patients with these conditions, the Chinese government, academic researchers, clinicians, and >200 hospitals have created China Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (China PEACE), a national network for research and performance improvement. The first study from China PEACE, the Retrospective Study of Acute Myocardial Infarction (China PEACE-Retrospective AMI Study), is designed to promote improvements in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) quality of care by generating knowledge about the characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of patients hospitalized with AMI across a representative sample of Chinese hospitals during the past decade. Methods and Results— The China PEACE-Retrospective AMI Study will examine >18 000 patient records from 162 hospitals identified using a 2-stage cluster sampling design within economic–geographic regions. Records were chosen from 2001, 2006, and 2011 to identify temporal trends. Data quality will be monitored by a central coordinating center and will, in particular, address case ascertainment, data abstraction, and data management. Analyses will examine patient characteristics, diagnostic testing patterns, in-hospital treatments, in-hospital outcomes, and variation in results by time and site of care. In addition to publications, data will be shared with participating hospitals and the Chinese government to develop strategies to promote quality improvement. Conclusions— The China PEACE-Retrospective AMI Study is the first to leverage the China PEACE platform to better understand AMI across representative sites of care and during the past decade in China. The China PEACE collaboration among government, academicians, clinicians, and hospitals is poised to translate research about trends and patterns of AMI practices and outcomes into improved care for patients. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01624883.

ObjectivesThis study sought to analyze recent trends over time in heart failure (HF) hospital stay rates, length of stay (LOS), and in-hospital mortality by age groups with a large national dataset of U.S. hospital discharges.BackgroundHeart failure hospital stay rates, LOS, and mortality have fallen over the past decade for older Medicare beneficiaries, but whether this holds true for younger adults is unknown.MethodsFrom the National Inpatient Sample, we calculated HF hospital stay rates, LOS, and in-hospital mortality from 2001 to 2009 with survey data analysis techniques.ResultsHospital stays (n = 1,686,089) with a primary discharge diagnosis of HF were identified from National Inpatient Sample data between 2001 and 2009. The overall national hospital stay rate decreased from 633 to 463 hospital stays/100,000 persons, (−26.9%, p-for-trend

Readmission rates declined after announcement of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP), which penalizes hospitals for excess readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia.To compare trends in readmission rates for target and nontarget conditions, stratified by hospital penalty status.Retrospective cohort study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries older than 64 years discharged between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2015, from 2214 penalty hospitals and 1283 nonpenalty hospitals. Difference-interrupted time-series models were used to compare trends in readmission rates by condition and penalty status.Hospital penalty status or target condition under the HRRP.Thirty-day risk adjusted, all-cause unplanned readmission rates for target and nontarget conditions.The study included 48 137 102 hospitalizations of 20 351 161 Medicare beneficiaries. In January 2008, the mean readmission rates for AMI, HF, pneumonia, and nontarget conditions were 21.9%, 27.5%, 20.1%, and 18.4%, respectively, at hospitals later subject to financial penalties and 18.7%, 24.2%, 17.4%, and 15.7% at hospitals not subject to penalties. Between January 2008 and March 2010, prior to HRRP announcement, readmission rates were stable across hospitals (except AMI at nonpenalty hospitals). Following announcement of HRRP (March 2010), readmission rates for both target and nontarget conditions declined significantly faster for patients at hospitals later subject to financial penalties compared with those at nonpenalized hospitals (for AMI, additional decrease of -1.24 [95% CI, -1.84 to -0.65] percentage points per year relative to nonpenalty discharges; for HF, -1.25 [95% CI, -1.64 to -0.86]; for pneumonia, -1.37 [95% CI, -1.80 to -0.95]; and for nontarget conditions, -0.27 [95% CI, -0.38 to -0.17]; P .001 for all). For penalty hospitals, readmission rates for target conditions declined significantly faster compared with nontarget conditions (for AMI, additional decline of -0.49 [95% CI, -0.81 to -0.16] percentage points per year relative to nontarget conditions [P = .004]; for HF, -0.90 [95% CI, -1.18 to -0.62; P .001]; and for pneumonia, -0.57 [95% CI, -0.92 to -0.23; P .001]). In contrast, among nonpenalty hospitals, readmissions for target conditions declined similarly or more slowly compared with nontarget conditions (for AMI, additional increase of 0.48 [95% CI, 0.01-0.95] percentage points per year [P = .05]; for HF, 0.08 [95% CI, -0.30 to 0.46; P = .67]; for pneumonia, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.13-0.93; P = .01]). After HRRP implementation in October 2012, the rate of change for readmission rates plateaued (P .05 for all except pneumonia at nonpenalty hospitals), with the greatest relative change observed among hospitals subject to financial penalty.Medicare fee-for-service patients at hospitals subject to penalties under the HRRP had greater reductions in readmission rates compared with those at nonpenalized hospitals. Changes were greater for target vs nontarget conditions for patients at the penalized hospitals but not at the other hospitals.

Objectives To characterize the magnitude and duration of risk of rehospitalization according to age after hospitalization for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), or pneumonia. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting U.S. hospitals (n = 4,767). Participants All Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 and older surviving hospitalization for HF, AMI, or pneumonia between October 2012 and December 2013. Measurements Daily risk of first rehospitalization for 1 year after hospital discharge was calculated according to age category (65–74, 75–84, ≥85) after adjustment for sex, race, comorbidities, and median ZIP code income. Time required for adjusted rehospitalization risk to decline 50% from maximum value after discharge, time required for adjusted risk to approach a plateau period of minimal day-to-day change, and degree to which adjusted risk was higher in recently hospitalized individuals than in the general elderly population were identified. Results There were 414,720 hospitalizations for HF, 177,752 for AMI, and 568,304 for pneumonia. The adjusted risk of rehospitalization declined with increasing age after HF hospitalization (P < .001), rose with increasing age after AMI hospitalization (P < .001), and was slightly lower with increasing age after pneumonia hospitalization (P = .002). Adjusted risks of rehospitalization were high beyond 30 days after hospitalization for all ages. Conclusion Although older age has heterogeneous relationships with rehospitalization risk, risk of readmission remains high for an extended time after discharge regardless of age or admitting condition. Condition-specific data on risk can be used to guide discussions on advanced care planning and strategies for longitudinal follow-up after hospitalization.

Background: Compared with men, women are at higher risk of rehospitalization in the first month after discharge for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, it is unknown whether this risk extends to the full year and varies by age. Explanatory factors potentially mediating the relationship between sex and rehospitalization remain unexplored and are needed to reduce readmissions. The aim of this study was to assess sex differences and factors associated with 1-year rehospitalization rates after AMI. Methods: We recruited 3536 patients (33% women) ≥18 years of age hospitalized with AMI from 24 US centers into the TRIUMPH study (Translational Research Investigating Underlying Disparities in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients’ Health Status). Data were obtained by medical record abstraction and patient interviews, and a physician panel adjudicated hospitalizations within the first year after AMI. We compared sex differences in rehospitalization using a Cox proportional hazards model, following sequential adjustment for covariates and testing for an age-sex interaction. Results: One-year crude all-cause rehospitalization rates for women were significantly higher than men after AMI (hazard ratio, 1.29 for women; 95% confidence interval, 1.12−1.48). After adjustment for demographics and clinical factors, women had a persistent 26% higher risk of rehospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.08−1.47). However, after adjustment for health status and psychosocial factors (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 0.96−1.35), the association was attenuated. No significant age-sex interaction was found for 1-year rehospitalization, suggesting that the increased risk applied to both older and younger women. Conclusions: Regardless of age, women have a higher risk of rehospitalization compared with men over the first year after AMI. Although the increased risk persisted after adjustment for clinical factors, the poorer health and psychosocial state of women attenuated the difference.

Background— The current ability to predict readmissions in patients with heart failure is modest at best. It is unclear whether machine learning techniques that address higher dimensional, nonlinear relationships among variables would enhance prediction. We sought to compare the effectiveness of several machine learning algorithms for predicting readmissions. Methods and Results— Using data from the Telemonitoring to Improve Heart Failure Outcomes trial, we compared the effectiveness of random forests, boosting, random forests combined hierarchically with support vector machines or logistic regression (LR), and Poisson regression against traditional LR to predict 30- and 180-day all-cause readmissions and readmissions because of heart failure. We randomly selected 50% of patients for a derivation set, and a validation set comprised the remaining patients, validated using 100 bootstrapped iterations. We compared C statistics for discrimination and distributions of observed outcomes in risk deciles for predictive range. In 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, the best performing machine learning model, random forests, provided a 17.8% improvement over LR (mean C statistics, 0.628 and 0.533, respectively). For readmissions because of heart failure, boosting improved the C statistic by 24.9% over LR (mean C statistic 0.678 and 0.543, respectively). For 30-day all-cause readmission, the observed readmission rates in the lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk with random forests (7.8% and 26.2%, respectively) showed a much wider separation than LR (14.2% and 16.4%, respectively). Conclusions— Machine learning methods improved the prediction of readmission after hospitalization for heart failure compared with LR and provided the greatest predictive range in observed readmission rates.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Determine timing of risk of readmissions within 30 days among patients first discharged to a skilled nursing facilities (SNF) after heart failure hospitalization and subsequently discharged home. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with SNF stays of 30 days or less following discharge from a heart failure hospitalization. Patients were followed for 30 days following discharge from SNF. We categorized patients based on SNF length of stay (LOS): 1–6 days, 7–13 days, 14–30 days. We then fit a piecewise exponential Bayesian model with the outcome as time to readmission after discharge from SNF for each group. Our event of interest was unplanned readmission; death and planned readmissions were considered as competing risks. Our model examined 2 different time intervals following discharge from SNF: 0–3 days post SNF discharge and 4–30 days post SNF discharge. We reported the hazard rate (credible interval) of readmission for each time interval. We examined all Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients 65 and older admitted from July 2012 to June 2015 with a principal discharge diagnosis of HF, based on methods adopted by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) for hospital quality measurement. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Our study included 67,585 HF hospitalizations discharged to SNF and subsequently discharged home [median age, 84 years (IQR; 78–89); female, 61.0%]; 13,257 (19.2%) were discharged with home care, 54,328 (80.4%) without. Median length of SNF admission was 17 days (IQR; 11–22). In total, 16,333 (24.2%) SNF discharges to home were readmitted within 30 days of SNF discharge; median time to readmission was 9 days (IQR; 3–18). The hazard rate of readmission for each group was significantly increased on days 0–3 after discharge from SNF compared with days 4–30 after discharge from SNF. In addition, the hazard rate of readmission during the first 0–3 days after discharge from SNF decreased as the LOS in SNF increased. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The hazard rate of readmission after SNF discharge following heart failure hospitalization is highest during the first 6 days home. Length of stay at SNF also has an effect on risk of readmission immediately after discharge from SNF; patients with a longer length of stay in SNF were less likely to be readmitted in the first 3 days after discharge from SNF.

Background— Patients with an unused or malfunctioning implantable cardioverter–defibrillator (ICD) lead may have the lead either abandoned or explanted; yet there are limited data on the comparative acute and longer-term safety of these 2 approaches. Methods and Results— We examined in-hospital events among 24 908 subject encounters using propensity score 1:1 matching for ICD lead abandonment or explantation in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) ICD Registry (April 2010 to June 2014). Relative to patients undergoing lead abandonment, patients undergoing lead explantation had more in-hospital procedure-related complications: 2.19% (n=273) versus 3.77% (n=469; P P P =0.06). In the Medicare subset analyzed for postprocedure complications, there was no difference with respect to 6-month bleeding (4.80% in both the groups), tamponade (0.38% versus 0.58%), infection (1.34% versus 3.07%), upper extremity thrombosis (0.77% versus 0.96%), pulmonary embolism (0.38% versus 0.96%), or urgent surgery (1.15% for both the groups; P >0.05 for all). Conclusions— After matching, patients undergoing removal of an unused or malfunctioning ICD lead had slightly higher in-hospital complications and deaths than those with a lead abandonment strategy. Although the 1-year mortality risk was slightly higher in the lead explantation group, this difference was not statistically significant and may be explained by chance.

Introduction: While implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) systems are lifesaving, leads often require replacement over time. When ICD leads require replacement, the existing lead can either be left in (abandoned) or be extracted, yet there are insufficient comparative data between these 2 strategies. Methods: We examined in-hospital events among propensity matched subjects undergoing lead replacement where the existing lead was either abandoned or extracted from National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) ICD Registry (2010 - 2011). Six month complication and 90-day and 1-year mortality rates were examined in a subset of Medicare subjects. We excluded those procedures involving infection and those performed by a cardiothoracic surgeon (extraction predetermined). Results: After 1:1 matching, we had 41744 subjects with in hospital outcomes, of which 2362 were Medicare aged and had 6-month complications and survival information. About 1/4 were women; average age was 66 yrs overall and 75 yrs in the Medicare cohort. In hospital events included 2.22% (n=463) and 3.63% (n=758) procedure related complications, and death in 0.21% (n=44) and 0.45% (n=94) in abandonment and extraction patients, respectively (p0.05 for all). At 90 days and 1 year, there was no difference in survival (p=0.55) (See Figure). Conclusion: Among propensity-matched patients undergoing ICD lead replacement, there were more in-hospital complications and deaths among extraction versus abandonment subjects. Among a Medicare subset, there were no differences in longer term outcomes. Thus, abandonment may be a reasonable alternative to extraction for sterile lead revision in some cases.