1. Shapley effects and proportional marginal effects for global sensitivity analysis: application to computed tomography scan organ dose estimation
- Author
-
Foucault, Anais, Il Idrissi, Marouane, Iooss, Bertrand, Ancelet, Sophie, Laboratoire d épidémiologie des rayonnements ionisants (IRSN/PSE-SANTE/SESANE/LEPID), Service de recherche sur les effets biologiques et Sanitaires des rayonnements ionisants (IRSN/PSE-SANTE/SESANE), Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN)-Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Performance, Risque Industriel, Surveillance pour la Maintenance et l’Exploitation (EDF R&D PRISME), EDF R&D (EDF R&D), EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF), Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse UMR5219 (IMT), Université Toulouse Capitole (UT Capitole), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse (INSA Toulouse), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Saclay Industrial Lab for Artificial Intelligence Research (SINCLAIR AI Lab), THALES [France]-TOTAL FINA ELF-EDF (EDF), Méthodes d'Analyse Stochastique des Codes et Traitements Numériques (GdR MASCOT-NUM), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
FOS: Computer and information sciences ,[STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] ,Epidemiology ,Proportional marginal effects ,Radiation dose ,Applications (stat.AP) ,Shapley effects ,Statistics - Applications ,Simulation - Abstract
Concerns have been raised about possible cancer risks after exposure to computed tomography (CT) scans in childhood. The health effects of ionizing radiation are then estimated from the absorbed dose to the organs of interest which is calculated, for each CT scan, from dosimetric numerical models, like the one proposed in the NCICT software. Given that a dosimetric model depends on input parameters which are most often uncertain, the calculation of absorbed doses is inherently uncertain. A current methodological challenge in radiation epidemiology is thus to be able to account for dose uncertainty in risk estimation. A preliminary important step can be to identify the most influential input parameters implied in dose estimation, before modelling and accounting for their related uncertainty in radiation-induced health risks estimates. In this work, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis was performed to rank by influence the uncertain input parameters of the NCICT software implied in brain and red bone marrow doses estimation, for four classes of CT examinations. Two recent sensitivity indices, especially adapted to the case of dependent input parameters, were estimated, namely: the Shapley effects and the Proportional Marginal Effects (PME). This provides a first comparison of the respective behavior and usefulness of these two indices on a real medical application case. The conclusion is that Shapley effects and PME are intrinsically different, but complementary. Interestingly, we also observed that the proportional redistribution property of the PME allowed for a clearer importance hierarchy between the input parameters.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF