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This study empirically estimates energy poverty levels across Queensland regions. It includes estimates of the number of households experiencing energy poverty in a region and the ability of households across regions to adapt to rising prices (price elasticity). We use these results to conduct a microsimulation exercise to examine how further rises in electricity prices could trigger a rise in energy poverty. It is estimated that 3.42% of all Queensland households – approximately 63,128 households – experience energy poverty, most of them being in the lowest income quintile. Energy poverty appears to be concentrated in certain regions, including Gladstone, Logan and Far North Queensland. A range of contributing factors may account for this pattern: high levels of income insecurity, weather and demographic differences. Beyond the distribution, our results also provide evidence that energy poverty is concentrated in certain groups, including large households. Policy implications are discussed.

Electricity lies at the heart of eliminating poverty and developing the world into a safe, equitable and environmentally sustainable place. While modern society depends on the provision of reliable and affordable electricity supplies, increasing demand for electricity and supply constraints have created a massive challenge to the world's electricity security. Until now, no framework has been built to evaluate electricity security that can be applied globally. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a global index which can measure the electricity security of a country without being restricted to their resource endowment, economic development, geographic area, generation mix, or population density. We identified a series of unique indicators which represent the dimensions of electricity security. Then a composite index was developed by aggregating the indicators and it quantifies the electricity security status of each country allowing us to rank them based on their performance. To test the index we used data for 14 countries over a period of 25 years. The validity of the index is assessed by the results, which order countries in a logical way and also captures past incidents that have affected their respective power sectors. Reasons for weak performances of electricity sectors and the policies to overcome those issues for a sustainable electricity industry were also identified.

Economic stability is dependent on the effective functioning and resilience of energy systems. Resilience is a term used across all research disciplines and in everyday discourse. As a concept it purports to serve as a useful indicator of sustainability and robustness, but it has proved difficult to measure. Ecological resilience, psychological resilience, risk management and energy security are all fields of research in which measures of the ability to respond to the unexpected are sought. The goal is to build adaptive capacity but quite different methods have been developed to achieve this end. Research on energy security, in particular, has focused on the security of oil supplies, not resilience or the adaptive capacity of the energy system or the role that renewable energy plays in building such capacity. This paper discusses how different disciplines seek to measure and build resilience and explores its connection with the state or quality of a system’s adaptive capacity. When the parameters of redundancy and diversity are present, resilience is enhanced. For this reason, in energy systems we must understand the size and scope of the key parameters required to facilitate the development of adaptive capacity and to build resilience that can enhance economic stability.

Governments and network utilities are grappling with how to manage increasing costs of electricity supply, the prospect of distributed generation while still meeting social objectives of access and affordability in remote areas. Due to geographical isolation and dispersed populations, remote Australian communities are generally electrified by distributed networks using diesel generation. This is expensive, environmentally damaging and fails to exploit vast renewable resources available. These communities are often regarded as “low hanging fruit” from a renewable energy deployment perspective. This paper examines why that fruit has not been readily picked in Australia in the context of a case study of three remote West Australian communities. In Western Australia, the local electricity distribution network service provider (DNSP) responsible for regional networks, developed a scheme (the Scheme) to incentivise renewable energy deployment in remote communities. This scheme aims to encourage communities to install renewable energy from the “bottom up” by providing a feed-in tariff capped at $0.50/kW h, to reduce the supply cost and environmental damage from diesel generation. However, to date there has been limited deployment of renewable energy in remote communities. The scheme and viability of renewable energy is assessed for three indigenous communities located in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. These communities are connected to isolated, diesel powered networks. Viability is assessed from the DNSP and community perspectives and incorporates quantitative and qualitative financial, social / human and institutional factors. Renewable energy deployment is found to benefit the DNSP and can also benefit communities subject to their cost of capital and to the imposition of connection charges. However a range of barriers are currently frustrating deployment and a dynamic and adaptive approach that recognises local challenges and provides the communities with a pathway to installation is needed.

The state of Bihar in India has approximately 75 million people with no access to electricity. The government of India has pursued a policy of rural electrification through the provision of centralised coal-fired power which has been unable to resolve the low levels of electrification. Coal supply woes in India have led Indian companies to pursue new coal mines in Australia’s Galilee Basin. The costs of these mining ventures will be high due to the mining infrastructure required and long transport distances to rural India. A high level analysis of mining, transport and power station investment to meet rural demand in Bihar shows that the absolute investment requirement using coal, especially coal sourced from Australia, as an expensive option. Pursuing electrification through village level, renewable energy micro-systems requires lower financing and provides more flexibility. Pollution costs associated with coal-fired generation, employment benefits associated with many village implementations and a rural load unsupported by industry load, show the benefit associated with decentralised, renewable energy electrification.

Russia is frequently referred to as a country with substantial energy efficiency and renewable energy potential. In 2000–2008 energy-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios were improved by 35%, however, the contribution of technological progress accounts for only 1% of the energy-GDP ratio reduction. At the same time, although new policy mechanisms to stimulate renewable energy development have been recently introduced, renewable technology deployment has not yet taken off. Economic theory suggests that there is no better incentive for industry development than cost signals. This paper adapts the levelised cost of energy methodology to examine the cost structures associated with electricity generation by conventional and new technology types for a Russian region (Moscow). The model, run for two fuel price scenarios, allowed us to conclude that the regional energy supply system is heavily dependent on the natural gas price and that the diversification provided by technology development will be beneficial for the energy security of the region. We conclude that new and renewable technologies become cost-effective for electricity generation as domestic natural gas prices reach parity with export prices. However, strong political and financial support is needed to boost technological development and renewables application in Russia.

Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) recently completed a major study investigating the value of distributed energy (DE; collectively demand management, energy efficiency and distributed generation) technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from Australia’s energy sector (CSIRO, 2009). This comprehensive report covered potential economic, environmental, technical, social, policy and regulatory impacts that could result from the wide scale adoption of these technologies. In this paper we highlight the economic findings from the study. Partial Equilibrium modeling of the stationary and transport sectors found that Australia could achieve a present value welfare gain of around $130 billion when operating under a 450 ppm carbon reduction trajectory through to 2050. Modeling also suggests that reduced volatility in the spot market could decrease average prices by up to 12% in 2030 and 65% in 2050 by using local resources to better cater for an evolving supply-demand imbalance. Further modeling suggests that even a small amount of distributed generation located within a distribution network has the potential to significantly alter electricity prices by changing the merit order of dispatch in an electricity spot market. Changes to the dispatch relative to a base case can have both positive and negative effects on network losses.

Electricity systems have generally evolved based on the natural resources available locally. Few metrics exist to compare the security of electricity supply of different countries despite the increasing likelihood of potential shocks to the power system like energy price increases and carbon price regulation. This paper seeks to calculate a robust measure of national power system resilience by analysing each step in the process of transformation from raw energy to consumed electricity. Countries with sizeable deposits of mineral resources are used for comparison because of the need for electricity-intensive metals processing. We find that shifts in electricity-intensive industry can be predicted based on countries’ power system resilience.

Distributed Generation (DG), which is electricity generation located close to the load/demand. While the definition of DG is far from “settled” [1], for the purpose of this project, DG will refer to electricity generation that is produced and consumed within the catchment area of the local Distribution Network Service Provider (DSNP). Many in the energy economics and policy literature also use the term “embedded generation”, which tends to reflect DG that has been incorporated into a larger electricity grid (but often still retains the ability to operate in isolation from the grid). Distributed power generation has been used for decades [2], and has been met with mixed success. There is a plethora of literature that examines the use of DG in developing countries [3-5], in relation to World Bank development projects [6], with respect to high penetration of DG in Australia [7-10], and for a more general discussion [5]. Furthermore, the DG literature has been growing and is now being examined in context of rural communities across different scales from household systems [11] to community mini-grids [12] and grid connected systems [13].

This short review will provide an analysis of the key challenges faced by electricity markets and their participants in increasing the penetration of large scale renewables. This review will assess the key barriers purely from an economic perspective. The global of deployment of large scale renewable energy has yet to live up to its full potential and our experiences (Masini & Menichetti, 2012). However its future development is expected to have greater influence over electricity markets (Wüstenhagen & Menichetti, 2012).

LCOE models are widely applied at national and regional levels for the energy systems design, energy generation projections and technology assessment. Although LCOE is a well developed and standard technique in the energy sector economics, authors approach model construction in different ways to ensure the model matches research tasks and data availability. The LCOE model is interdependent with the data availability – data determines the construction of LCOE model and vice-versa – LCOE model defines what data is required for calculations. However, adjustments made to the standard LCOE comes at a price of limited comparability of the outcomes from the different models. The following section introduces few well known LCOE models developed for national governments with further comparison of basic assumptions in order to determine theoretical framework and datasets to be allied in the project. The next section then will provide the results of comparative analysis of the LCOE models key assumptions, concentrating on capital costs, discount rates and technology learning curves.

This paper, the final in a three part series examining the competitiveness of Australia’s power system, seeks to identify a pragmatic strategy to transition Australia to a resilient power economy at reasonable cost and in an age of uncertainty. The resilience of a country’s power economy refers to its ability to meet power requirements while withstanding supply shocks and environmental constraints. For a country’spower economy to be competitive, it must be both affordable and resilient.This series examines the competitiveness of Australia’s power economy and evaluates possible strategies for securing the nation’s power economy into the future. In Part 1, (published December 2011), we demonstrated that Australia’s power system was not resilient, with higher electricity prices than most competing countries. Various scenarios for Australia’s power future were the focus in Part 2 (published February 2013). Our analysis found that shifting to gas from coal power generation did not address this vulnerability but could instead lead to large price increases. Rather, a portfolio approach to investing in electricity generation will ensure Australia starts to build a power system that is more robust, and thus more competitive, in the years to come. While market structures are well-suited to factoring risk into investment decisions, electricity generation in Australia faces multiple layers of uncertainty and external costs which can deflect the market from efficient outcomes. For this reason, it is important for Australia to pursue a strategy of diversity in power generation technologies and energy sources to keep options open for the future and initiate climate change mitigation measures. The best way to achieve both resilience and cost competitiveness in Australia’s power system is to develop a strategy that pursues the middle ground. In this paper, Part 3 of the series, we use the Power System Resilience Index developed in Part 1 to compare German, Chinese and Californian energy policies with Australia. We ask how effective they are in achieving greater diversity and, in this way, resilience in electricity.

Reducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial model is used to forecast global energy demand, based on global population, current energy use and economic growth rates allowing a critical analysis of global energy use patterns. A severe upward pressure on global energy demand results from the combined interplay of increasing population and continuing economic growth. The predictive output highlights (i) the potential for an exponential increase of fuel consumption (ii) serious fossil fuel limitations from 2033 onward, (iii) implications for CO2 emission reduction in a ‘pro-growth’ global economy and (iv) poverty alleviation. These findings place economists and environmentalists on the same side and establish a reference to guide sustainable development.

Oil is the driving force for the modern economy as a cheap energy source and its reliable supply of oil is therefore a crucial element of economic growth. Oil resources however, are unevenly distributed and concentrated into only a few, on average, emerging economies. Inefficient and ineffective resource management can jeopardize the secure flow of oil. Especially since these supplying countries are prone to geopolitical and commercial instability. The status of oil suppliers is derived from an endogenous web of relationships. However, most supply security studies focus mainly on the demand side, and the condition of oil suppliers is assumed to be exogenous. This paper attempts to quantify the security of oil supply from a supply side perspective through a composite indicator-based index. The subsequent composite index analysis combines the indicator results and shows that OPEC is the (relatively) riskiest producer group, followed by the Caspian and Non-OPEC countries. The implications from the analysis are that oil suppliers face not only different degrees of relative risks that vary from one petro-economy to another, but they also provide insights into ways and policies to reduce the relative risk levels of the selected oil suppliers.

Russia is frequently referred to as a country with sufficient energy efficiency and renewable energy potential [2, 3]. Although an improvement has been shown (energy-GDP ratios were improved by 35% between 2000-2008 [4]), the contribution of technological progress is estimated to account for only 1% of the energy-GDP ratio reduction, the existing share of renewable energy sources (RES) based electricity generation is estimated at 0.1%. Analysis shows that regional and federal levels of governance in Russia are missing efficient mechanisms for stimulation of energy saving, technological development [5] and RES deployment. This research aims to develop an analytical tool for energy sector economic analysis for technological development planning to support policy decision making. The paper adapts the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) methodology of Wagner and Foster [6], which has been upgraded to facilitate combined energy generation processes, to examine the cost structures associated with energy system and applies it to a Russian regional case study. The model run for two fuel price scenarios allowed us to conclude that the regional energy supply system is dependent on natural gas price. We conclude that new and RES based technologies become cost-effective for electricity generation as domestic natural gas prices reach parity with export prices. However, strong political and financial support is needed to boost technological development and RES application.

Australia’s renewable energy policy has taken significant steps towards encouraging the deployment of lower carbon emissions energy generation. Effective policy and regulatory frameworks are paramount to incentivising the deployment of renewable energy to achieve long term reductions in carbon emissions. However significant policy barriers still exist at the federal and state levels, which have reduced the effectiveness of a concerted national effort to deploy renewables. The current policy landscape has largely favoured mature technologies which present the lowest investment risk at the expense of emerging options which may present greater efficiency and emissions reduction gains. The lack of support for emerging technologies delays their effective deployment and the accumulation of highly skilled human capital, until the medium to long term. This paper outlines the key policy frameworks, incentives and regulatory environment which encompasses the renewable energy sector, and presents a critical analysis of the barriers faced by the industry.

Australia’s abundant supply of coal has underpinned its power system. Competing countries have used a variety of energy resources, which sees many of them now equipped with resilient power systems to provide future electrical power. This paper considers the implication of possible scenarios for the Australian power system in 2035.

Microalgal biotechnology has been commercially viable for several decades, butonly for a restricted range of applications (Benemann et al. 1987). Owing to therelatively high capital cost of microalgal production systems, successful applicationshave generally focussed either upon niche areas in which both modern agricultureand microbial fermentation systems lack a competitive advantage or uponunique microalgal products, for which no competition exists. Although the largestexisting algae farms are still for health food production (e.g. Spirulina productionin China) and natural products (e.g. Dunaliella in Australia for b-carotene), thoseundergoing the most rapid expansion are currently aimed at biofuel productionand associated RaD. The microalgal industry is growing rapidly, and while microalgalbiofuel technologies generally remain in the basic and applied RaD stage(IEA 2011a), commercial-scale facilities are starting to come online. For photoautotrophicproduction, these include Sapphire Energyrs 120ha (300ac) IntegratedAlgal Biorefinery (IABR) facility currently under construction in New Mexico,USA (Sapphire 2011; US D.O.E. Energy Efficiency a Renewable Energy 2011), whileSolazymers factories have focused on heterotrophic conversion of sugars to oilsand other products (Solazyme 2011; Dillon 2011). [extract]

We seek to evaluate the projection that a carbon price will reduce emissions at least cost by inducing a shift of generation from coal-fired to gas-fired plants. Modelling of Australia’s National Electricity Market in 2035 is undertaken using Australian Energy Market Operator assumptions for fuel costs, capital costs and demand forecasts and an electricity market simulation package which uses deterministic linear programming techniques, and transmission and generating plant data, to optimise the power system and determine the least cost dispatch of generating resources to meet a given demand. We find that wholesale market prices increase substantially due to the increased costs of gas over goal as an input fuel and carbon price but also as a result of infra-marginal rents and strategic behaviour by generators to maintain margin as well as pass through additional costs.

With carbon dioxide the major contributor to anthropogenic climate change, being required to reduce the carbon emissions from burning coal for electricity presents a systemic shock to Australian power. The Australian government is committed to the development of its coal seam gas resources for export to lucrative world markets and to transition domestic power generation to greater resilience by moving away from a reliance on coal to lower-emissions intensive gas. Using a commercially available modelling package, PLEXOS, we model what a transition to gas fired generation in the year 2035 would deliver and compare that to a transition to power from renewable technologies. The results indicate that a transition to gas fired generation reduces emissions only marginally and that wholesale prices will be higher than the renewable energy option.

Australia’s plentiful supply of coal has defined the structure of its stationary energy power generation and consumption. Economies of scale derived from large coal-fired generation have enabled the supply of affordable electricity and encouraged investment in power intensive industries. As we look to 2035, Australia’s plentiful supply of coal seam gas could dominate the future structure of its power economy but it will be subject to the vagaries of international energy price volatility and environmental costs if carbon price is applied globally. Uncertain electricity prices as a result of global energy and carbon price volatility will discourage electricity and capital intensive investment in Australia. We seek to understand the consequences of a gas-centric policy environment on Australian power in 2035.We conduct scenario analysis of the options facing the stationary energy industry by modelling the provision of electricity in 2035. In particular we seek to understand how the roll-out of large-scale solar thermal and solar photovoltaic power would alter the structure of the power economy and its ability to sustain energy-intensive industry. In order to facilitate the comparative analysis, we use a resilience index as a strategic, top down barometer of power economy performance because it allows a systematic and rational appraisal of the relative efficiency, diversity and security of power systems. Our findings provide an indicator of how energy-intensive industries will view investment in Australia over the coming decades.

Russia is frequently referred to as a country with sufficient energy efficiency potential. Although an improvement has been shown (energy-GDP ratios were improved by 35% between 2000-2008 [2]), the contribution of technological progress is estimated to account for only 1% of the energy-GDP ratio reduction, the existing share of renewable energy sources (RES) based electricity generation is estimated at 0.1%. Analysis shows that regional and federal levels of governance in Russia are missing efficient mechanisms for stimulation of energy saving and technological development [7]. This research aims to develop an analytical tool for energy sector economic analysis for technological development planning to support policy decision making. The paper adapts the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) methodology of Wagner and Foster [9], which has been upgraded to facilitate combined energy generation processes, to examine the cost structures associated with energy system and applies it to a Russian regional case study. The model run for two fuel price scenarios allowed us to conclude that the regional energy supply system is dependent on natural gas price. Strong political and financial support is needed to boost technological development and RES application.

The objectives of this project are to examine the adaptive capacity of existing institutional arrangements in the National Electricity Market (NEM) to existing and predicted climate change conditions. Specifically the project aims to: 1. identify climate change adaptation issues in the NEM; 1. analyse climate change impacts on reliability in the NEM under alternative climate change scenarios to 2030, particularly what adaptation strategies the power generation and supply network infrastructure will need; and 3. assess the robustness of the institutional arrangements that supports effective adaptation. This report provides an extensive literature review to inform and to develop research questions for the project’s four forthcoming reports: 1. the impact of climate change on electricity demand; 2. the impact of climate change on electricity generation capacity and transmission networks; 3. analysing the effects of changes in water availability on electricity demand-supply; and 4. assessing the current institutional arrangements for the development of electricity infrastructure to inform more flexible arrangements for effective adaptation. The review finds that four factors are hindering or required for adaptation to climate change: 1. fragmentation of the NEM both politically and economically; 2. accelerated deterioration of the transmission and distribution infrastructure due to climate change requiring the deployment of technology to defer investment in transmission and distribution; 3. lacking mechanisms to develop a diversified portfolio of generation technologies and energy sources to reduce supply risk; and 4. failing to model and to treat the NEM as a node based entity rather than state based. Section 2 reviews the literature. Section 3 recommends solutions to the four factors of maladaption. Section 4 discusses research questions to test these solutions, which the forthcoming reports will address.

The objectives of this project are to examine the adaptive capacity of existing institutional arrangements in the National Electricity Market (NEM) to existing and predicted climate change conditions. Specifically the project aims to: 1. identify climate change adaptation issues in the NEM; 1. analyse climate change impacts on reliability in the NEM under alternative climate change scenarios to 2030, particularly what adaptation strategies the power generation and supply network infrastructure will need; and 3. assess the robustness of the institutional arrangements that supports effective adaptation. This report provides an extensive literature review to inform and to develop research questions for the project’s four forthcoming reports: 1. the impact of climate change on electricity demand; 2. the impact of climate change on electricity generation capacity and transmission networks; 3. analysing the effects of changes in water availability on electricity demand-supply; and 4. assessing the current institutional arrangements for the development of electricity infrastructure to inform more flexible arrangements for effective adaptation. The review finds that four factors are hindering or required for adaptation to climate change: 1. fragmentation of the NEM both politically and economically; 2. accelerated deterioration of the transmission and distribution infrastructure due to climate change requiring the deployment of technology to defer investment in transmission and distribution; 3. lacking mechanisms to develop a diversified portfolio of generation technologies and energy sources to reduce supply risk; and 4. failing to model and to treat the NEM as a node based entity rather than state based. Section 2 reviews the literature. Section 3 recommends solutions to the four factors of maladaption. Section 4 discusses research questions to test these solutions, which the forthcoming reports will address.

This paper examines the potential impacts of subprime carbon credits on the impending Australian carbon market. Subprime carbon could potentially be created in carbon offset markets that lack adequate regulation, as projects face risks that can overstate emissions abatement. Recent research suggests that subprime carbon credits will likely cause significant price instability in carbon markets, with some authors drawing parallels to the US market for mortgage backed securities during the subprime mortgage crisis (Chan, 2009). To assess the impacts of subprime carbon credits on the impending Australian carbon market, carbon price fundamentals are examined using a marginal abatement cost curve for the year 2020. The 2020 Australian marginal abatement cost curve is derived using a bottom-up model of the Australian electricity sector, as well as findings by the (DCC, 2009) and (McKinsey, 2008). Impacts are evaluated under several scenarios, which consider different trading scheme limits on the use of offsets; different proportions of offset credits that are subprime; and different emissions reduction targets. The results suggest that subprime carbon credits will always result in overall emissions reductions to be overstated, while sometimes increasing price volatility in the carbon market, depending on the steepness of the marginal abatement cost curve, the proportion of offset credits that are subprime, and the trading schemes limits on the use of offsets. We conclude that carbon markets could benefit significantly from a carbon offsets regulator, which would ensure the environmental and financial integrity of offset credits.

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.

Historically Australia’s ample supply of coal has underpinned its power system. Competing countries however have used a variety of different energy sources and, as a result of this diversity, many have a more resilient power system to provide future electrical power. this report looks at Australia’s global position with respect to its resource-rich competitors.

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.

This paper examines the economic competitiveness of implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for deployment on the Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) against conventional base load electricity generation. By examining the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) for sent out generation as a suitable hurdle for judging the future prospects of different technology types, we examine the likely mix of generation assets that could be invested in. After examining the LCOE it is shown that CCS enabled technologies will not be competitive in Australia until 2025, which is well beyond the first emissions reduction target for 2020.

This paper aims to analyze the issue of price spikes in electricity markets through the lens of noncooperative game theory. The case we consider is Australia’s long established National Electricity Market (NEM). Specifically, we adapt von der Fehr and Harbord’s multi-unit auction model to settings that more closely reflect the structure of the NEM, showing that price spikes can be related to a specifiable threshold in demand.

This paper exploits an analogy between the “trembles” that underlie the functioning of simulated annealing and the player “trembles” that underlie the Nash refinements known as perfect and proper equilibrium. This paper shows that this relationship can be used to provide a method for computing perfect and proper equilibria of n-player strategic games. This paper also shows, by example, that simulated annealing can be used to locate a perfect equilibrium in an extensive form game.

Whilst emissions trading systems are widely held to be able to deliver lowest-cost abatement, uncertainty reduces their effectiveness. We consider a new scheme, the Tender-Price Allocation Mechanism, which focuses carbon factor cost expenditure on abatement rather than just revenue transfers. It is a scheme that reduces uncertainty and the costs of uncertainty for both firms and regulators. It also incorporates a suite of incentives that compensates for the externalities associated with abatement investment.

The terms "grandfather clause" and "grandfathering" describe elements of a policy programme in which existing participants in an activity are protected from the impact of regulations, restrictions or charges applied to new entrants. In this paper, the role of grandfathering in the design of a carbon emissions trading scheme in Australia is assessed. It is argued that adjustment assistance policies such as those adopted in conjunction with previous microeconomic reform programmes are preferable to policies based on the free issue of emission permits. The suggestion that owners of capital assets should be compensated for changes in government policy that reduce the expected flow of income from those assets represents a radical, and undesirable, policy innovation.

We consider the optimal spacing between marine reserves for maximising the viability of a species occupying a reserve network. The closer the networks are placed together, the higher the probability of colonisation of an empty reserve by an occupied reserve, thus increasing population viability. However, the closer the networks are placed together, the higher the probability that a catastrophe will cause extinction of the species in both reserves, thus decreasing population viability. Using a simple discrete-time Markov chain model for the presence or absence of the species in each reserve we determine the distance between the two reserves which provides the optimal trade-off between these processes, resulting in maximum viability of the species., Comment: 12 pages and 9 figures

Secure networks rely upon players to maintain security and reliability. However not every player can be assumed to have total loyalty and one must use methods to uncover traitors in such networks. We use the original concept of the Byzantine Generals Problem by Lamport, and the more formal Byzantine Agreement describe by Linial, to nd traitors in secure networks. By applying general fault-tolerance methods to develop a more formal design of secure networks we are able to uncover traitors amongst a group of players. We also propose methods to integrate this system with insecure channels. This new resiliency can be applied to broadcast and peer-to-peer secure communication systems where agents may be traitors or become unreliable due to faults., Comment: Accepted by International Journal of Network Security