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We consider a Bayesian framework based on "probability of decision" for dose-finding trial designs. The proposed PoD-BIN design evaluates the posterior predictive probabilities of up-and-down decisions. In PoD-BIN, multiple grades of toxicity, categorized as the mild toxicity (MT) and dose-limiting toxicity (DLT), are modeled simultaneously, and the primary outcome of interests is time-to-toxicity for both MT and DLT. This allows the possibility of enrolling new patients when previously enrolled patients are still being followed for toxicity, thus potentially shortening trial length. The Bayesian decision rules in PoD-BIN utilize the probability of decisions to balance the need to speed up the trial and the risk of exposing patients to overly toxic doses. We demonstrate via numerical examples the resulting balance of speed and safety of PoD-BIN and compare to existing designs., Comment: 31 pages, 2 figures

The objective of this research was to test an appropriate DNA barcode from four candidate barcoding loci (matK, rbcL, psbA-trnH and ITS2) for discrimination between Illicium verumand its congeneric toxic adulterants in trade. Twenty fresh samples from 8 species of the genera Illicium were collected from four areas of China, and two samples of medicinal material of I. verum were purchased respectively, from the market and pharmacy. In this study, PCR amplification success rate, sequencing efficiency, the intra- and inter-specific divergences, and DNA barcoding gap were employed to assess the ability of each barcode for the authentication of I. verum and its adultrants. The results showed that psbA-trnHexhibited the highest inter-specific divergence among the four DNA barcoding sequences and the highest species identification efficiency at 100% both by BLAST1 and the nearest distance method. In addition, the psbA-trnH query sequences of the two dried fruits were compared with the reference sequence by BLAST1, they were identified as I. verum. Our findings supported the notion that the psbA-trnH region could distinguish I. verum from other adulterating species. Key words: Illicium verum, psbA-trnH, identification, DNA barcoding, Illiciaceae, medicinal material.