1. Onchocerciasis: The Pre-control Association between Prevalence of Palpable Nodules and Skin Microfilariae
- Author
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K. Yankum Dadzie, Simon Cousens, Michele E. Murdoch, Wilma A. Stolk, Simon J. O’Hanlon, Michel Boussinesq, Sébastien D. S. Pion, A. Abiose, María-Gloria Basáñez, Jan H. F. Remme, Sake J. de Vlas, Luc E. Coffeng, Peter Fischer, Public Health, and Wellcome Trust
- Subjects
Male ,Veterinary medicine ,MICROFILAIRE ,Skin infection ,Onchocerciasis ,0302 clinical medicine ,Ivermectin ,DIAGNOSTIC ,African program ,INFECTION ,Prevalence ,Child ,HOMME ,Skin ,ANALYSE STATISTIQUE ,MODELE MATHEMATIQUE ,0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,biology ,Antiparasitic Agents ,lcsh:Public aspects of medicine ,Statistics ,ONCHOCERCOSE ,Neavei-transmitted onchocerciasis ,Biological Sciences ,Filariasis ,3. Good health ,PREVALENCE ,ANALYSE DE REGRESSION ,Infectious Diseases ,Medicine ,Public Health ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,NODULE ,MILIEU RURAL ,Research Article ,Neglected Tropical Diseases ,medicine.drug ,Adult ,lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ,Infectious Disease Control ,Adolescent ,lcsh:RC955-962 ,030231 tropical medicine ,Population ,Biostatistics ,VARIATION CLIMATIQUE ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,Tropical Medicine ,Confidence Intervals ,Parasitic Diseases ,medicine ,ETUDE COMPARATIVE ,River-blindness ,Animals ,Humans ,Statistical Methods ,education ,Disease burden ,Ivermectin treatment ,030304 developmental biology ,Endemic foci ,Science & Technology ,business.industry ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Vectors and Hosts ,lcsh:RA1-1270 ,medicine.disease ,biology.organism_classification ,Antiparasitic agent ,Onchocerca volvulus ,Africa ,VARIATION SPATIALE ,Parasitology ,Infectious Disease Modeling ,business ,Ocular Onchocerciasis ,Mathematics ,Ocular onchocerciasis ,Demography - Abstract
Background The prospect of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa by mass treatment with ivermectin has been rejuvenated following recent successes in foci in Mali, Nigeria and Senegal. Elimination prospects depend strongly on local transmission conditions and therefore on pre-control infection levels. Pre-control infection levels in Africa have been mapped largely by means of nodule palpation of adult males, a relatively crude method for detecting infection. We investigated how informative pre-control nodule prevalence data are for estimating the pre-control prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the skin and discuss implications for assessing elimination prospects. Methods and Findings We analyzed published data on pre-control nodule prevalence in males aged ≥20 years and mf prevalence in the population aged ≥5 years from 148 African villages. A meta-analysis was performed by means of Bayesian hierarchical multivariate logistic regression, accounting for measurement error in mf and nodule prevalence, bioclimatic zones, and other geographical variation. There was a strong positive correlation between nodule prevalence in adult males and mf prevalence in the general population. In the forest-savanna mosaic area, the pattern in nodule and mf prevalence differed significantly from that in the savanna or forest areas. Significance We provide a tool to convert pre-control nodule prevalence in adult males to mf prevalence in the general population, allowing historical data to be interpreted in terms of elimination prospects and disease burden of onchocerciasis. Furthermore, we identified significant geographical variation in mf prevalence and nodule prevalence patterns warranting further investigation of geographical differences in transmission patterns of onchocerciasis., Author Summary Until recently, elimination of onchocerciasis (river blindness) from Africa by mass treatment with ivermectin alone was deemed impossible. However, recent reports of elimination of onchocerciasis from various African foci have stimulated renewed interest. An important determinant of achieving elimination is the pre-control microfilarial (mf) prevalence, i.e. the percentage of people with larval stages of the Onchocerca volvulus worm in the skin, which can be detected in a skin snip (a small skin biopsy). Because this method is considered invasive, pre-control infection levels in Africa have been mapped mostly by means of palpation of subcutaneous nodules (protuberances under the skin where the adult worms live) in adult males, a relatively crude but non-invasive method of detecting infection. We developed a tool to derive estimates of pre-control mf prevalence from available pre-control nodule prevalence estimates. This tool can help evaluate ongoing control programs, help assess local elimination prospects, and help estimate levels of disease due to onchocerciasis by linking pre-control nodule palpation data to the large body of literature on the association between mf prevalence and disease.
- Published
- 2013